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A Hinesburg well ran dry nearly a month and a half ago, leaving a family of four with dirty laundry and infrequent showers. The tap water has an odd aftertaste. Area monitoring wells were at record lows at many sites across the region. In Rutland, the water flow was the lowest since 1928. WPTZ NBC5 Burlington (Vt.), Sep 16, 2025

Moriah was under a local State of Emergency effective immediately due to a critical situation affecting the town’s reservoir. A mandatory water ban on all indoor and outdoor water use was in place. Residents were permitted to use water for drinking, cooking and personal hygiene, while allowed commercial water uses included that for public health and safety. The entire North Country was under an ongoing drought watch as Lake Champlain dipped into near-record lows. Several area towns urged minimal water use in the coming days with no rain anticipated. The Sun (Elizabethtown, N.Y.), Sep 16, 2025

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 16 Sep 2025 14:57:22 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 16 Sep 2025 15:21:34 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 16 Sep 2025 14:57:22 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 16 Sep 2025 15:21:32 GMT

Farmers in Stark and Carroll counties were calling this dry spell the worst drought they have seen. Spring was rainy, and then the rain stopped. A farmer who was the former president of the Stark County Farm Bureau attested that drought was significantly affecting grassland, so that cattle were being fed hay already. Normally the cattle remained on pasture through November. Area corn did not receive rain when it was needed most. A farmer near Massillon who raises hogs, cattle and chicken and grows vegetables reported that crops have dried up despite watering so the season was at an end. He anticipated having to begin feeding hay soon because the pasture was struggling as there was just no moisture in the ground for growing grass. It did not regrow after the cows ate it. Early feeding means a greater demand for hay, which will contribute to rising hay prices and the expense of feeding hay longer this winter. Some Carroll County farmers have little to no yield this year, according to the organizational director at the Carroll County Farm Bureau. Several farmers were trucking water to their livestock. Canton Rep (Ohio), Sep 16, 2025

Columbus Water and Power began releasing water from the Doutt Upground Reservoir to bolster the O’Shaugnessy Reservoir. WCMH-TV NBC 4 Columbus (Ohio), Sep 15, 2025

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 16 Sep 2025 14:57:22 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 16 Sep 2025 14:57:22 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 16 Sep 2025 14:57:22 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 16 Sep 2025 14:57:22 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 16 Sep 2025 14:52:04 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 16 Sep 2025 14:52:04 GMT

Issued at 800 AM PDT Tue Sep 16 2025 773 WTPZ43 KNHC 161450 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Mario Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132025 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 800 AM PDT Tue Sep 16 2025 Convection associated with Mario continues to diminish this morning as the system moves into cooler waters and encounters increasing southwesterly shear. Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are decreasing, and thus the initial intensity was lowered to 40 kt this advisory. The initial location of Mario remains a bit uncertain, although a recent microwave pass from shortly after 09Z indicated the system is likely farther southwest than anticipated. As Mario continues to weaken and lose vertical structure, the expectation is that the shallow low-level circulation will slow down and feel less of an impact from the deep-layer southerly flow. This should result in an increasingly sheared system, with the low-level circulation staying farther west and the mid-level remnants going northward. Given this, the latest track forecast is slightly west of the previous forecast, generally remaining on the western side of the track guidance. Mario will continue to weaken as it moves over cooler waters and increasing shear. As the low-level and mid-level circulation decouple, the system will lose its organized convection and should become a post-tropical remnant low as soon as tonight. Thereafter, the low should dissipate into a trough by 48-60 h. While Mario is forecast to dissipate as a tropical cyclone well to the south of California, its remnant moisture will spread farther north, affecting portions of the southwestern United States by mid to late week. Locally heavy rainfall and some instances of flash flooding will be possible by Thursday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/1500Z 22.7N 117.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 17/0000Z 23.7N 118.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 17/1200Z 24.9N 119.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 18/0000Z 25.8N 120.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 18/1200Z 26.0N 120.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Chenard/Blake

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 16 2025 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 161449 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM MARIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132025 ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1500 UTC TUE SEP 16 2025 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 25N 120W 34 X 8( 8) 3(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) $$ FORECASTER CHENARD/BLAKE

Issued at 800 AM PDT Tue Sep 16 2025 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 161448 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Mario Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132025 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 800 AM PDT Tue Sep 16 2025 ...MOISTURE FROM MARIO COULD AFFECT THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES BY THURSDAY... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.7N 117.2W ABOUT 465 MI...750 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Mario was located near latitude 22.7 North, longitude 117.2 West. Mario is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue with a decrease in forward speed over the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Mario will continue to weaken and is expected to become a post-tropical remnant low within the next day. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Chenard/Blake

...MOISTURE FROM MARIO COULD AFFECT THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES BY THURSDAY... As of 8:00 AM PDT Tue Sep 16 the center of Mario was located near 22.7, -117.2 with movement NW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 16 2025 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 161447 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM MARIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132025 ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1500 UTC TUE SEP 16 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 117.2W AT 16/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 35 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 4 M SEAS.... 60NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 117.2W AT 16/1500Z AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 116.7W FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 23.7N 118.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 24.9N 119.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 25.8N 120.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 26.0N 120.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.7N 117.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z $$ FORECASTER CHENARD/BLAKE

Delco Water Company was asking Delaware water customers to voluntarily conserve by limiting outdoor watering. WCMH-TV NBC 4 Columbus (Ohio), Sep 15, 2025

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0733 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025 Valid 161300Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST CO...WESTERN/CENTRAL NE...AND EXTREME NORTHWEST KS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon into early evening across a portion of the central Great Plains. Large hail, severe gusts, and a tornado or two may occur. ...Synopsis... Early morning satellite imagery shows a fairly amplified upper pattern across CONUS, consisting of two ridge/trough pairs. The westernmost pair features ridging that extends from just off the central CA coast north through southern BC and a shortwave trough that extends from central MT into northeast NV/northwest UT. The eastern most pair features ridging from the southern Plains through the Upper Great Lakes and a modest cyclone centered over central NC. Despite this amplified upper pattern, flow is generally modest, with the strongest flow extending through the base of the western shortwave from northern UT into eastern WY. The surface analysis reveals a relatively nondescript surface pattern free of any sharp gradients or notable features, aside from a weak low just off the northeast NC coast. Moderate moisture (i.e. mid/upper 60s dewpoints) does extend from the southern Plains through the Lower MO Valley into southern IA. ...Central High Plains into the Central Plains ... The western shortwave trough mentioned in the synopsis is forecast to progress slowly eastward throughout the day, evolving towards a more closed mid/upper level circulation as it does. Eastern periphery of ascent associated with this shortwave will impinge on the western periphery of the better low-level moisture and buoyancy, resulting in scattered to numerous thunderstorms from eastern WY/CO into western NE/KS. The best buoyancy across the region will likely reside from far northeast CO into central NE where low to mid 60s dewpoints beneath steep mid-level lapse rates will support MLCAPE around 2000-2500 J/kg. Low-level convergence along a weak cold front is anticipated in this area as well. The resulting combination of lift, instability, and modest shear (i.e. around 35 kt of effective bulk shear) will support strong to severe storms. Large hail appears to be the most prominent hazard, but some clustering could lead to a few strong gusts as well. Presence of a surface low and potential backed low-level flow will result in a low-probability tornado risk as well. ...Eastern SD to northeast MN... Steep lapse rates atop moderate low-level moisture will support moderate to strong buoyancy along a weak front zone forecast to extend from eastern SD into north-central MN this afternoon. Low-level convergence along the front will be modest, with warm low to mid-level temperatures (and resultant capping) likely keeping storm coverage isolated. Mid-level flow will be modest across most of the region, but the strong buoyancy could still result in an isolated threat for severe hail and damaging winds with any storms that develop. A relatively higher severe potential exists across northeast NM, where stronger mid-level flow through southern peripheral of a shortwave trough moving over far northwest Ontario will be in place this evening. ...VA Tidewater and far northeast NC... A weak cyclone east of the Outer Banks is progged to drift northwestward today, reaching the NC/VA border area by this afternoon. Low-level flow enhancement through its northwest periphery will promote potential for strong to marginally severe gusts with any sustained convection. However, the more buoyant air is expected to remain offshore and displaced east of this stronger low-level flow, thermodynamically limiting the spatial extent of any severe threat. Meager surface-based instability may glance the coast from later this morning through the afternoon before low-level wind fields subside and the severe risk becomes negligible. ..Mosier/Bentley.. 09/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0733 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025 Valid 161300Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST CO...WESTERN/CENTRAL NE...AND EXTREME NORTHWEST KS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon into early evening across a portion of the central Great Plains. Large hail, severe gusts, and a tornado or two may occur. ...Synopsis... Early morning satellite imagery shows a fairly amplified upper pattern across CONUS, consisting of two ridge/trough pairs. The westernmost pair features ridging that extends from just off the central CA coast north through southern BC and a shortwave trough that extends from central MT into northeast NV/northwest UT. The eastern most pair features ridging from the southern Plains through the Upper Great Lakes and a modest cyclone centered over central NC. Despite this amplified upper pattern, flow is generally modest, with the strongest flow extending through the base of the western shortwave from northern UT into eastern WY. The surface analysis reveals a relatively nondescript surface pattern free of any sharp gradients or notable features, aside from a weak low just off the northeast NC coast. Moderate moisture (i.e. mid/upper 60s dewpoints) does extend from the southern Plains through the Lower MO Valley into southern IA. ...Central High Plains into the Central Plains ... The western shortwave trough mentioned in the synopsis is forecast to progress slowly eastward throughout the day, evolving towards a more closed mid/upper level circulation as it does. Eastern periphery of ascent associated with this shortwave will impinge on the western periphery of the better low-level moisture and buoyancy, resulting in scattered to numerous thunderstorms from eastern WY/CO into western NE/KS. The best buoyancy across the region will likely reside from far northeast CO into central NE where low to mid 60s dewpoints beneath steep mid-level lapse rates will support MLCAPE around 2000-2500 J/kg. Low-level convergence along a weak cold front is anticipated in this area as well. The resulting combination of lift, instability, and modest shear (i.e. around 35 kt of effective bulk shear) will support strong to severe storms. Large hail appears to be the most prominent hazard, but some clustering could lead to a few strong gusts as well. Presence of a surface low and potential backed low-level flow will result in a low-probability tornado risk as well. ...Eastern SD to northeast MN... Steep lapse rates atop moderate low-level moisture will support moderate to strong buoyancy along a weak front zone forecast to extend from eastern SD into north-central MN this afternoon. Low-level convergence along the front will be modest, with warm low to mid-level temperatures (and resultant capping) likely keeping storm coverage isolated. Mid-level flow will be modest across most of the region, but the strong buoyancy could still result in an isolated threat for severe hail and damaging winds with any storms that develop. A relatively higher severe potential exists across northeast NM, where stronger mid-level flow through southern peripheral of a shortwave trough moving over far northwest Ontario will be in place this evening. ...VA Tidewater and far northeast NC... A weak cyclone east of the Outer Banks is progged to drift northwestward today, reaching the NC/VA border area by this afternoon. Low-level flow enhancement through its northwest periphery will promote potential for strong to marginally severe gusts with any sustained convection. However, the more buoyant air is expected to remain offshore and displaced east of this stronger low-level flow, thermodynamically limiting the spatial extent of any severe threat. Meager surface-based instability may glance the coast from later this morning through the afternoon before low-level wind fields subside and the severe risk becomes negligible. ..Mosier/Bentley.. 09/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0733 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025 Valid 161300Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST CO...WESTERN/CENTRAL NE...AND EXTREME NORTHWEST KS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon into early evening across a portion of the central Great Plains. Large hail, severe gusts, and a tornado or two may occur. ...Synopsis... Early morning satellite imagery shows a fairly amplified upper pattern across CONUS, consisting of two ridge/trough pairs. The westernmost pair features ridging that extends from just off the central CA coast north through southern BC and a shortwave trough that extends from central MT into northeast NV/northwest UT. The eastern most pair features ridging from the southern Plains through the Upper Great Lakes and a modest cyclone centered over central NC. Despite this amplified upper pattern, flow is generally modest, with the strongest flow extending through the base of the western shortwave from northern UT into eastern WY. The surface analysis reveals a relatively nondescript surface pattern free of any sharp gradients or notable features, aside from a weak low just off the northeast NC coast. Moderate moisture (i.e. mid/upper 60s dewpoints) does extend from the southern Plains through the Lower MO Valley into southern IA. ...Central High Plains into the Central Plains ... The western shortwave trough mentioned in the synopsis is forecast to progress slowly eastward throughout the day, evolving towards a more closed mid/upper level circulation as it does. Eastern periphery of ascent associated with this shortwave will impinge on the western periphery of the better low-level moisture and buoyancy, resulting in scattered to numerous thunderstorms from eastern WY/CO into western NE/KS. The best buoyancy across the region will likely reside from far northeast CO into central NE where low to mid 60s dewpoints beneath steep mid-level lapse rates will support MLCAPE around 2000-2500 J/kg. Low-level convergence along a weak cold front is anticipated in this area as well. The resulting combination of lift, instability, and modest shear (i.e. around 35 kt of effective bulk shear) will support strong to severe storms. Large hail appears to be the most prominent hazard, but some clustering could lead to a few strong gusts as well. Presence of a surface low and potential backed low-level flow will result in a low-probability tornado risk as well. ...Eastern SD to northeast MN... Steep lapse rates atop moderate low-level moisture will support moderate to strong buoyancy along a weak front zone forecast to extend from eastern SD into north-central MN this afternoon. Low-level convergence along the front will be modest, with warm low to mid-level temperatures (and resultant capping) likely keeping storm coverage isolated. Mid-level flow will be modest across most of the region, but the strong buoyancy could still result in an isolated threat for severe hail and damaging winds with any storms that develop. A relatively higher severe potential exists across northeast NM, where stronger mid-level flow through southern peripheral of a shortwave trough moving over far northwest Ontario will be in place this evening. ...VA Tidewater and far northeast NC... A weak cyclone east of the Outer Banks is progged to drift northwestward today, reaching the NC/VA border area by this afternoon. Low-level flow enhancement through its northwest periphery will promote potential for strong to marginally severe gusts with any sustained convection. However, the more buoyant air is expected to remain offshore and displaced east of this stronger low-level flow, thermodynamically limiting the spatial extent of any severe threat. Meager surface-based instability may glance the coast from later this morning through the afternoon before low-level wind fields subside and the severe risk becomes negligible. ..Mosier/Bentley.. 09/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0733 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025 Valid 161300Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST CO...WESTERN/CENTRAL NE...AND EXTREME NORTHWEST KS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon into early evening across a portion of the central Great Plains. Large hail, severe gusts, and a tornado or two may occur. ...Synopsis... Early morning satellite imagery shows a fairly amplified upper pattern across CONUS, consisting of two ridge/trough pairs. The westernmost pair features ridging that extends from just off the central CA coast north through southern BC and a shortwave trough that extends from central MT into northeast NV/northwest UT. The eastern most pair features ridging from the southern Plains through the Upper Great Lakes and a modest cyclone centered over central NC. Despite this amplified upper pattern, flow is generally modest, with the strongest flow extending through the base of the western shortwave from northern UT into eastern WY. The surface analysis reveals a relatively nondescript surface pattern free of any sharp gradients or notable features, aside from a weak low just off the northeast NC coast. Moderate moisture (i.e. mid/upper 60s dewpoints) does extend from the southern Plains through the Lower MO Valley into southern IA. ...Central High Plains into the Central Plains ... The western shortwave trough mentioned in the synopsis is forecast to progress slowly eastward throughout the day, evolving towards a more closed mid/upper level circulation as it does. Eastern periphery of ascent associated with this shortwave will impinge on the western periphery of the better low-level moisture and buoyancy, resulting in scattered to numerous thunderstorms from eastern WY/CO into western NE/KS. The best buoyancy across the region will likely reside from far northeast CO into central NE where low to mid 60s dewpoints beneath steep mid-level lapse rates will support MLCAPE around 2000-2500 J/kg. Low-level convergence along a weak cold front is anticipated in this area as well. The resulting combination of lift, instability, and modest shear (i.e. around 35 kt of effective bulk shear) will support strong to severe storms. Large hail appears to be the most prominent hazard, but some clustering could lead to a few strong gusts as well. Presence of a surface low and potential backed low-level flow will result in a low-probability tornado risk as well. ...Eastern SD to northeast MN... Steep lapse rates atop moderate low-level moisture will support moderate to strong buoyancy along a weak front zone forecast to extend from eastern SD into north-central MN this afternoon. Low-level convergence along the front will be modest, with warm low to mid-level temperatures (and resultant capping) likely keeping storm coverage isolated. Mid-level flow will be modest across most of the region, but the strong buoyancy could still result in an isolated threat for severe hail and damaging winds with any storms that develop. A relatively higher severe potential exists across northeast NM, where stronger mid-level flow through southern peripheral of a shortwave trough moving over far northwest Ontario will be in place this evening. ...VA Tidewater and far northeast NC... A weak cyclone east of the Outer Banks is progged to drift northwestward today, reaching the NC/VA border area by this afternoon. Low-level flow enhancement through its northwest periphery will promote potential for strong to marginally severe gusts with any sustained convection. However, the more buoyant air is expected to remain offshore and displaced east of this stronger low-level flow, thermodynamically limiting the spatial extent of any severe threat. Meager surface-based instability may glance the coast from later this morning through the afternoon before low-level wind fields subside and the severe risk becomes negligible. ..Mosier/Bentley.. 09/16/2025 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 161138
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Tue Sep 16 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Mario, located a few hundred miles west of the southern tip of
the Baja California Peninsula.

Off the Coast of Southwestern Mexico (EP96):
An area of low pressure located several hundred miles off the coast
of southern Mexico continues to produce a broad area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for additional development of this system, and a tropical
depression is likely to form during the middle to latter part of
this week as it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the
central east Pacific.
*Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
*Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kelly