Aggregator

Issued at 800 PM PDT Mon Sep 15 2025 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 160233 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Mario Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132025 800 PM PDT Mon Sep 15 2025 ...MARIO BEGINNING TO MOVE OVER COOLER WATERS... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.5N 115.0W ABOUT 340 MI...545 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Mario was located near latitude 21.5 North, longitude 115.0 West. Mario is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion with some decrease in forward speed is forecast during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady weakening is forecast, and Mario should become a remnant low by Tuesday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch

...MARIO BEGINNING TO MOVE OVER COOLER WATERS... As of 8:00 PM PDT Mon Sep 15 the center of Mario was located near 21.5, -115.0 with movement NW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 995 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 16 2025 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 160231 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM MARIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132025 0300 UTC TUE SEP 16 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 115.0W AT 16/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 35 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 15SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 4 M SEAS.... 75NE 60SE 30SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 115.0W AT 16/0300Z AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 114.6W FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 22.6N 116.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 24.0N 118.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 25.3N 119.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 26.0N 119.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 27.2N 119.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.5N 115.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025 Valid 160100Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN SD/NORTHWEST NE PANHANDLE VICINITY AND FAR NORTHEAST NC... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe gusts remain possible this evening in the western South Dakota and northwest Nebraska Panhandle vicinity. A brief tornado and a severe gust are possible over far northeast North Carolina in the early morning. ...SD/NE vicinity... Scattered high-based convection along the WY/NE/SD border area should continue to pose a near-term threat for sporadic strong to severe gusts as it progresses east-northeast. Nocturnal boundary-layer cooling should yield a rapid weakening in the next couple hours within the mostly meager buoyant airmass. However, a lobe of upper 50s to lower 60s surface dew points across northwest/north-central SD may sustain a marginal severe wind threat in this region through late evening. ...Northeast NC... A weak offshore cyclone is still expected to approach the Outer Banks to Albemarle Sound region by 12Z. Guidance does differ on whether this will actually reach land or remain entirely off the coast. It will depend on the degree of overnight convective development around the cyclone, which most recently has been wobbling to the east. Backing of current northerly surface winds to the northeast will be required to advect around 70 F dew points onto land, necessary for weak surface-based instability. This may occur during the 09-12Z period, coincident with some enlargement to the low-level hodograph. Should this occur, the setup might support a brief tornado and/or a localized severe gust. ..Grams.. 09/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025 Valid 160100Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN SD/NORTHWEST NE PANHANDLE VICINITY AND FAR NORTHEAST NC... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe gusts remain possible this evening in the western South Dakota and northwest Nebraska Panhandle vicinity. A brief tornado and a severe gust are possible over far northeast North Carolina in the early morning. ...SD/NE vicinity... Scattered high-based convection along the WY/NE/SD border area should continue to pose a near-term threat for sporadic strong to severe gusts as it progresses east-northeast. Nocturnal boundary-layer cooling should yield a rapid weakening in the next couple hours within the mostly meager buoyant airmass. However, a lobe of upper 50s to lower 60s surface dew points across northwest/north-central SD may sustain a marginal severe wind threat in this region through late evening. ...Northeast NC... A weak offshore cyclone is still expected to approach the Outer Banks to Albemarle Sound region by 12Z. Guidance does differ on whether this will actually reach land or remain entirely off the coast. It will depend on the degree of overnight convective development around the cyclone, which most recently has been wobbling to the east. Backing of current northerly surface winds to the northeast will be required to advect around 70 F dew points onto land, necessary for weak surface-based instability. This may occur during the 09-12Z period, coincident with some enlargement to the low-level hodograph. Should this occur, the setup might support a brief tornado and/or a localized severe gust. ..Grams.. 09/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025 Valid 160100Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN SD/NORTHWEST NE PANHANDLE VICINITY AND FAR NORTHEAST NC... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe gusts remain possible this evening in the western South Dakota and northwest Nebraska Panhandle vicinity. A brief tornado and a severe gust are possible over far northeast North Carolina in the early morning. ...SD/NE vicinity... Scattered high-based convection along the WY/NE/SD border area should continue to pose a near-term threat for sporadic strong to severe gusts as it progresses east-northeast. Nocturnal boundary-layer cooling should yield a rapid weakening in the next couple hours within the mostly meager buoyant airmass. However, a lobe of upper 50s to lower 60s surface dew points across northwest/north-central SD may sustain a marginal severe wind threat in this region through late evening. ...Northeast NC... A weak offshore cyclone is still expected to approach the Outer Banks to Albemarle Sound region by 12Z. Guidance does differ on whether this will actually reach land or remain entirely off the coast. It will depend on the degree of overnight convective development around the cyclone, which most recently has been wobbling to the east. Backing of current northerly surface winds to the northeast will be required to advect around 70 F dew points onto land, necessary for weak surface-based instability. This may occur during the 09-12Z period, coincident with some enlargement to the low-level hodograph. Should this occur, the setup might support a brief tornado and/or a localized severe gust. ..Grams.. 09/16/2025 Read more

No watches are valid as of Mon Sep 15 23:31:01 UTC 2025.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Sep 15 23:31:01 UTC 2025.

MD 2082 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR MUCH OF WYOMING INTO FAR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 2082 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0433 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025 Areas affected...Much of Wyoming into far western South Dakota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 152133Z - 152330Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...A few severe gusts may accompany the stronger storm cores this afternoon into early evening. DISCUSSION...High-based thunderstorms have gradually been increasing in intensity this afternoon. These storms are overspreading a very dry boundary layer, with RAP forecast soundings showing inverted-v profiles extending up to 600 mb, resulting in up to 1200 J/kg DCAPE. Furthermore, these storms are embedded in a 500 mb wind maximum, where 30-40 kts of effective bulk shear are in place. As such, sustained storms atop a well-mixed boundary layer may produce isolated severe gusts, especially where deeper cores may materialize this afternoon into the early evening hours. ..Squitieri/Gleason.. 09/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW... LAT...LON 43281021 44960558 45200369 44890291 44320272 43750295 43360342 42900413 42490515 42250619 42130731 42140834 42310928 43281021 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 152304
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Mon Sep 15 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Mario, located a few hundred miles west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula.

Off the Coast of Southwestern Mexico:
An elongated trough of low pressure located several hundred miles
off the coast of southern Mexico is producing disorganized showers
and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is
likely to form during the middle to latter part of this week as it
moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the central east
Pacific.
*Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
*Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen

MD 2083 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN IOWA INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ARKANSAS...FAR SOUTHWESTERN TENNESSEE...FAR NORTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI
Mesoscale Discussion 2083 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0449 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025 Areas affected...portions of eastern Iowa into central Missouri...northern and central Arkansas...far southwestern Tennessee...far northwestern Mississippi Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 152149Z - 152315Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...A couple instances of damaging gusts or hail may accompany the stronger, longer-lived storm cores this afternoon into early evening. DISCUSSION...Pulse cellular convection has recently intensified and become more widespread through the afternoon, with some 40+ dBZ echoes extending up to 50 kft per latest MRMS mosaic radar data (especially in eastern MO). These storms percolate in intensity amid 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE along a theta-e axis, which is driven primarily by seasonal low-level moisture and steep boundary-layer lapse rates. Despite adequate buoyancy, vertical wind shear over the middle MS Valley is quite poor, suggesting that storm organization should be limited at best. While isolated damaging gusts or an instance of marginally severe hail may occur, the severe threat should remain sparse this afternoon into the evening hours. ..Squitieri/Gleason.. 09/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...DVN...LZK...SGF...DMX...EAX... TSA... LAT...LON 35639405 36219414 37499392 39239333 41829278 42079228 41959200 41559183 40409168 39879167 38929161 38079150 37189102 36689055 36058979 35698939 35318907 34888916 34548948 34429008 34479099 34699203 35119332 35639405 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

Crop and pasture stress remained an issue across the Far West. Limited pockets of precipitation mitigated the stress impacts in some areas. Pima and upland cotton were doing well in the western parts of the district, but yield potential suffered in the east. Scattered rain showers contributed to weeds and grass in alfalfa. Nutritional supplementation was required district-wide as livestock conditions continued to decline in late summer. AgriLife Today (Texas A&M) (College Station, Texas), Sep 3, 2025

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 15 Sep 2025 20:35:36 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 15 Sep 2025 21:22:18 GMT

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0405 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z An upper low is forecast to stall over the central US this week with weak ridging temporarily amplifying on either side. The semi-blocked pattern should persist, keeping fire-weather conditions relatively quiescent through much of the extended forecast period. By this weekend, the ridging will break down as a more progressive upper trough moves from the Northwest into the Rockies, while a stronger upper low will move offshore with a cold front across the Northeast. This, along with an influx of tropical moisture over the West, may bring an increase in fire-weather potential later in the extended forecast period. ...Northwest... A brief period of easterly flow is expected over the western Columbia Basin and Cascade Range late D2/Tuesday into early D3/Wednesday. High pressure behind the departing upper low will support a modest increase in offshore pressure gradients through midweek, before onshore flow returns. Occasional gusts to 25+ mph may briefly overlap with lower humidity supporting some local fire-weather concerns across the higher Cascades and through terrain gaps. High pressure is then forecast to build over much of the West through the end of the week. This will allow for significant warming and some localized fire-weather concerns as fuels dry. Fire-weather concerns may increase across the Columbia Basin through the weekend and into next week as stronger zonal flow returns. ...Eastern US... Warm and dry conditions are expected over much of the eastern/southeastern US through the extended forecast period. However, winds are expected to remain light through the week with high pressure in place. Area fuels will continue to dry with ongoing drought. Some potential for gusty northwest winds may develop D5/Friday through the weekend behind a cold front. The gusty offshore winds and dry conditions could potentially bolster fire-weather concerns into week 2. For now, dry conditions may promote local fire-weather concerns with the driest fuels this weekend. ...Thunderstorms... Associated with the remnants of TS Mario over the eastern Pacific, mid-level moisture and increasingly strong southwesterly/southerly flow will overspread much of the West beginning the middle of this week. The increase in moisture should favor scattered thunderstorms with lightning potential into the weekend, especially over portions of CA and the Southwest. However, wetting rainfall potential also appears high which could temper area fuels. Models vary on the degree of moisture and strength of the upper ridge into the weekend, casting significant uncertainty on the dry thunderstorm potential, especially farther north. Still, some lightning potential may evolve over the Northwest and northern Great Basin later this week into the weekend where fuels are expected to be more receptive. ..Lyons.. 09/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0405 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z An upper low is forecast to stall over the central US this week with weak ridging temporarily amplifying on either side. The semi-blocked pattern should persist, keeping fire-weather conditions relatively quiescent through much of the extended forecast period. By this weekend, the ridging will break down as a more progressive upper trough moves from the Northwest into the Rockies, while a stronger upper low will move offshore with a cold front across the Northeast. This, along with an influx of tropical moisture over the West, may bring an increase in fire-weather potential later in the extended forecast period. ...Northwest... A brief period of easterly flow is expected over the western Columbia Basin and Cascade Range late D2/Tuesday into early D3/Wednesday. High pressure behind the departing upper low will support a modest increase in offshore pressure gradients through midweek, before onshore flow returns. Occasional gusts to 25+ mph may briefly overlap with lower humidity supporting some local fire-weather concerns across the higher Cascades and through terrain gaps. High pressure is then forecast to build over much of the West through the end of the week. This will allow for significant warming and some localized fire-weather concerns as fuels dry. Fire-weather concerns may increase across the Columbia Basin through the weekend and into next week as stronger zonal flow returns. ...Eastern US... Warm and dry conditions are expected over much of the eastern/southeastern US through the extended forecast period. However, winds are expected to remain light through the week with high pressure in place. Area fuels will continue to dry with ongoing drought. Some potential for gusty northwest winds may develop D5/Friday through the weekend behind a cold front. The gusty offshore winds and dry conditions could potentially bolster fire-weather concerns into week 2. For now, dry conditions may promote local fire-weather concerns with the driest fuels this weekend. ...Thunderstorms... Associated with the remnants of TS Mario over the eastern Pacific, mid-level moisture and increasingly strong southwesterly/southerly flow will overspread much of the West beginning the middle of this week. The increase in moisture should favor scattered thunderstorms with lightning potential into the weekend, especially over portions of CA and the Southwest. However, wetting rainfall potential also appears high which could temper area fuels. Models vary on the degree of moisture and strength of the upper ridge into the weekend, casting significant uncertainty on the dry thunderstorm potential, especially farther north. Still, some lightning potential may evolve over the Northwest and northern Great Basin later this week into the weekend where fuels are expected to be more receptive. ..Lyons.. 09/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0405 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z An upper low is forecast to stall over the central US this week with weak ridging temporarily amplifying on either side. The semi-blocked pattern should persist, keeping fire-weather conditions relatively quiescent through much of the extended forecast period. By this weekend, the ridging will break down as a more progressive upper trough moves from the Northwest into the Rockies, while a stronger upper low will move offshore with a cold front across the Northeast. This, along with an influx of tropical moisture over the West, may bring an increase in fire-weather potential later in the extended forecast period. ...Northwest... A brief period of easterly flow is expected over the western Columbia Basin and Cascade Range late D2/Tuesday into early D3/Wednesday. High pressure behind the departing upper low will support a modest increase in offshore pressure gradients through midweek, before onshore flow returns. Occasional gusts to 25+ mph may briefly overlap with lower humidity supporting some local fire-weather concerns across the higher Cascades and through terrain gaps. High pressure is then forecast to build over much of the West through the end of the week. This will allow for significant warming and some localized fire-weather concerns as fuels dry. Fire-weather concerns may increase across the Columbia Basin through the weekend and into next week as stronger zonal flow returns. ...Eastern US... Warm and dry conditions are expected over much of the eastern/southeastern US through the extended forecast period. However, winds are expected to remain light through the week with high pressure in place. Area fuels will continue to dry with ongoing drought. Some potential for gusty northwest winds may develop D5/Friday through the weekend behind a cold front. The gusty offshore winds and dry conditions could potentially bolster fire-weather concerns into week 2. For now, dry conditions may promote local fire-weather concerns with the driest fuels this weekend. ...Thunderstorms... Associated with the remnants of TS Mario over the eastern Pacific, mid-level moisture and increasingly strong southwesterly/southerly flow will overspread much of the West beginning the middle of this week. The increase in moisture should favor scattered thunderstorms with lightning potential into the weekend, especially over portions of CA and the Southwest. However, wetting rainfall potential also appears high which could temper area fuels. Models vary on the degree of moisture and strength of the upper ridge into the weekend, casting significant uncertainty on the dry thunderstorm potential, especially farther north. Still, some lightning potential may evolve over the Northwest and northern Great Basin later this week into the weekend where fuels are expected to be more receptive. ..Lyons.. 09/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0405 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z An upper low is forecast to stall over the central US this week with weak ridging temporarily amplifying on either side. The semi-blocked pattern should persist, keeping fire-weather conditions relatively quiescent through much of the extended forecast period. By this weekend, the ridging will break down as a more progressive upper trough moves from the Northwest into the Rockies, while a stronger upper low will move offshore with a cold front across the Northeast. This, along with an influx of tropical moisture over the West, may bring an increase in fire-weather potential later in the extended forecast period. ...Northwest... A brief period of easterly flow is expected over the western Columbia Basin and Cascade Range late D2/Tuesday into early D3/Wednesday. High pressure behind the departing upper low will support a modest increase in offshore pressure gradients through midweek, before onshore flow returns. Occasional gusts to 25+ mph may briefly overlap with lower humidity supporting some local fire-weather concerns across the higher Cascades and through terrain gaps. High pressure is then forecast to build over much of the West through the end of the week. This will allow for significant warming and some localized fire-weather concerns as fuels dry. Fire-weather concerns may increase across the Columbia Basin through the weekend and into next week as stronger zonal flow returns. ...Eastern US... Warm and dry conditions are expected over much of the eastern/southeastern US through the extended forecast period. However, winds are expected to remain light through the week with high pressure in place. Area fuels will continue to dry with ongoing drought. Some potential for gusty northwest winds may develop D5/Friday through the weekend behind a cold front. The gusty offshore winds and dry conditions could potentially bolster fire-weather concerns into week 2. For now, dry conditions may promote local fire-weather concerns with the driest fuels this weekend. ...Thunderstorms... Associated with the remnants of TS Mario over the eastern Pacific, mid-level moisture and increasingly strong southwesterly/southerly flow will overspread much of the West beginning the middle of this week. The increase in moisture should favor scattered thunderstorms with lightning potential into the weekend, especially over portions of CA and the Southwest. However, wetting rainfall potential also appears high which could temper area fuels. Models vary on the degree of moisture and strength of the upper ridge into the weekend, casting significant uncertainty on the dry thunderstorm potential, especially farther north. Still, some lightning potential may evolve over the Northwest and northern Great Basin later this week into the weekend where fuels are expected to be more receptive. ..Lyons.. 09/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0405 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z An upper low is forecast to stall over the central US this week with weak ridging temporarily amplifying on either side. The semi-blocked pattern should persist, keeping fire-weather conditions relatively quiescent through much of the extended forecast period. By this weekend, the ridging will break down as a more progressive upper trough moves from the Northwest into the Rockies, while a stronger upper low will move offshore with a cold front across the Northeast. This, along with an influx of tropical moisture over the West, may bring an increase in fire-weather potential later in the extended forecast period. ...Northwest... A brief period of easterly flow is expected over the western Columbia Basin and Cascade Range late D2/Tuesday into early D3/Wednesday. High pressure behind the departing upper low will support a modest increase in offshore pressure gradients through midweek, before onshore flow returns. Occasional gusts to 25+ mph may briefly overlap with lower humidity supporting some local fire-weather concerns across the higher Cascades and through terrain gaps. High pressure is then forecast to build over much of the West through the end of the week. This will allow for significant warming and some localized fire-weather concerns as fuels dry. Fire-weather concerns may increase across the Columbia Basin through the weekend and into next week as stronger zonal flow returns. ...Eastern US... Warm and dry conditions are expected over much of the eastern/southeastern US through the extended forecast period. However, winds are expected to remain light through the week with high pressure in place. Area fuels will continue to dry with ongoing drought. Some potential for gusty northwest winds may develop D5/Friday through the weekend behind a cold front. The gusty offshore winds and dry conditions could potentially bolster fire-weather concerns into week 2. For now, dry conditions may promote local fire-weather concerns with the driest fuels this weekend. ...Thunderstorms... Associated with the remnants of TS Mario over the eastern Pacific, mid-level moisture and increasingly strong southwesterly/southerly flow will overspread much of the West beginning the middle of this week. The increase in moisture should favor scattered thunderstorms with lightning potential into the weekend, especially over portions of CA and the Southwest. However, wetting rainfall potential also appears high which could temper area fuels. Models vary on the degree of moisture and strength of the upper ridge into the weekend, casting significant uncertainty on the dry thunderstorm potential, especially farther north. Still, some lightning potential may evolve over the Northwest and northern Great Basin later this week into the weekend where fuels are expected to be more receptive. ..Lyons.. 09/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0405 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z An upper low is forecast to stall over the central US this week with weak ridging temporarily amplifying on either side. The semi-blocked pattern should persist, keeping fire-weather conditions relatively quiescent through much of the extended forecast period. By this weekend, the ridging will break down as a more progressive upper trough moves from the Northwest into the Rockies, while a stronger upper low will move offshore with a cold front across the Northeast. This, along with an influx of tropical moisture over the West, may bring an increase in fire-weather potential later in the extended forecast period. ...Northwest... A brief period of easterly flow is expected over the western Columbia Basin and Cascade Range late D2/Tuesday into early D3/Wednesday. High pressure behind the departing upper low will support a modest increase in offshore pressure gradients through midweek, before onshore flow returns. Occasional gusts to 25+ mph may briefly overlap with lower humidity supporting some local fire-weather concerns across the higher Cascades and through terrain gaps. High pressure is then forecast to build over much of the West through the end of the week. This will allow for significant warming and some localized fire-weather concerns as fuels dry. Fire-weather concerns may increase across the Columbia Basin through the weekend and into next week as stronger zonal flow returns. ...Eastern US... Warm and dry conditions are expected over much of the eastern/southeastern US through the extended forecast period. However, winds are expected to remain light through the week with high pressure in place. Area fuels will continue to dry with ongoing drought. Some potential for gusty northwest winds may develop D5/Friday through the weekend behind a cold front. The gusty offshore winds and dry conditions could potentially bolster fire-weather concerns into week 2. For now, dry conditions may promote local fire-weather concerns with the driest fuels this weekend. ...Thunderstorms... Associated with the remnants of TS Mario over the eastern Pacific, mid-level moisture and increasingly strong southwesterly/southerly flow will overspread much of the West beginning the middle of this week. The increase in moisture should favor scattered thunderstorms with lightning potential into the weekend, especially over portions of CA and the Southwest. However, wetting rainfall potential also appears high which could temper area fuels. Models vary on the degree of moisture and strength of the upper ridge into the weekend, casting significant uncertainty on the dry thunderstorm potential, especially farther north. Still, some lightning potential may evolve over the Northwest and northern Great Basin later this week into the weekend where fuels are expected to be more receptive. ..Lyons.. 09/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0405 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z An upper low is forecast to stall over the central US this week with weak ridging temporarily amplifying on either side. The semi-blocked pattern should persist, keeping fire-weather conditions relatively quiescent through much of the extended forecast period. By this weekend, the ridging will break down as a more progressive upper trough moves from the Northwest into the Rockies, while a stronger upper low will move offshore with a cold front across the Northeast. This, along with an influx of tropical moisture over the West, may bring an increase in fire-weather potential later in the extended forecast period. ...Northwest... A brief period of easterly flow is expected over the western Columbia Basin and Cascade Range late D2/Tuesday into early D3/Wednesday. High pressure behind the departing upper low will support a modest increase in offshore pressure gradients through midweek, before onshore flow returns. Occasional gusts to 25+ mph may briefly overlap with lower humidity supporting some local fire-weather concerns across the higher Cascades and through terrain gaps. High pressure is then forecast to build over much of the West through the end of the week. This will allow for significant warming and some localized fire-weather concerns as fuels dry. Fire-weather concerns may increase across the Columbia Basin through the weekend and into next week as stronger zonal flow returns. ...Eastern US... Warm and dry conditions are expected over much of the eastern/southeastern US through the extended forecast period. However, winds are expected to remain light through the week with high pressure in place. Area fuels will continue to dry with ongoing drought. Some potential for gusty northwest winds may develop D5/Friday through the weekend behind a cold front. The gusty offshore winds and dry conditions could potentially bolster fire-weather concerns into week 2. For now, dry conditions may promote local fire-weather concerns with the driest fuels this weekend. ...Thunderstorms... Associated with the remnants of TS Mario over the eastern Pacific, mid-level moisture and increasingly strong southwesterly/southerly flow will overspread much of the West beginning the middle of this week. The increase in moisture should favor scattered thunderstorms with lightning potential into the weekend, especially over portions of CA and the Southwest. However, wetting rainfall potential also appears high which could temper area fuels. Models vary on the degree of moisture and strength of the upper ridge into the weekend, casting significant uncertainty on the dry thunderstorm potential, especially farther north. Still, some lightning potential may evolve over the Northwest and northern Great Basin later this week into the weekend where fuels are expected to be more receptive. ..Lyons.. 09/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more