Aggregator

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0209 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...19z Update... No Changes, see previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 09/16/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0205 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025/ ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure will remain in place over much of the central and northern Rockies due to a stationary mid-level trough over the northern High Plains tomorrow (Wednesday). This synoptic pattern will once again promote mainly quiescent fire weather conditions over much of the Interior west. A dry low-level airmass will also linger over portions of the Ohio Valley, atop drying fuels. However, the lack of stronger surface winds suggests that Elevated highlights are not currently warranted. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0209 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...19z Update... No Changes, see previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 09/16/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0205 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025/ ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure will remain in place over much of the central and northern Rockies due to a stationary mid-level trough over the northern High Plains tomorrow (Wednesday). This synoptic pattern will once again promote mainly quiescent fire weather conditions over much of the Interior west. A dry low-level airmass will also linger over portions of the Ohio Valley, atop drying fuels. However, the lack of stronger surface winds suggests that Elevated highlights are not currently warranted. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0209 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...19z Update... No Changes, see previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 09/16/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0205 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025/ ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure will remain in place over much of the central and northern Rockies due to a stationary mid-level trough over the northern High Plains tomorrow (Wednesday). This synoptic pattern will once again promote mainly quiescent fire weather conditions over much of the Interior west. A dry low-level airmass will also linger over portions of the Ohio Valley, atop drying fuels. However, the lack of stronger surface winds suggests that Elevated highlights are not currently warranted. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0209 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...19z Update... No Changes, see previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 09/16/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0205 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025/ ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure will remain in place over much of the central and northern Rockies due to a stationary mid-level trough over the northern High Plains tomorrow (Wednesday). This synoptic pattern will once again promote mainly quiescent fire weather conditions over much of the Interior west. A dry low-level airmass will also linger over portions of the Ohio Valley, atop drying fuels. However, the lack of stronger surface winds suggests that Elevated highlights are not currently warranted. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0209 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...19z Update... No Changes, see previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 09/16/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0205 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025/ ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure will remain in place over much of the central and northern Rockies due to a stationary mid-level trough over the northern High Plains tomorrow (Wednesday). This synoptic pattern will once again promote mainly quiescent fire weather conditions over much of the Interior west. A dry low-level airmass will also linger over portions of the Ohio Valley, atop drying fuels. However, the lack of stronger surface winds suggests that Elevated highlights are not currently warranted. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0209 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...19z Update... No Changes, see previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 09/16/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0205 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025/ ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure will remain in place over much of the central and northern Rockies due to a stationary mid-level trough over the northern High Plains tomorrow (Wednesday). This synoptic pattern will once again promote mainly quiescent fire weather conditions over much of the Interior west. A dry low-level airmass will also linger over portions of the Ohio Valley, atop drying fuels. However, the lack of stronger surface winds suggests that Elevated highlights are not currently warranted. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0209 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...19z Update... No Changes, see previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 09/16/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0205 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025/ ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure will remain in place over much of the central and northern Rockies due to a stationary mid-level trough over the northern High Plains tomorrow (Wednesday). This synoptic pattern will once again promote mainly quiescent fire weather conditions over much of the Interior west. A dry low-level airmass will also linger over portions of the Ohio Valley, atop drying fuels. However, the lack of stronger surface winds suggests that Elevated highlights are not currently warranted. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0209 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...19z Update... No Changes, see previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 09/16/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0205 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025/ ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure will remain in place over much of the central and northern Rockies due to a stationary mid-level trough over the northern High Plains tomorrow (Wednesday). This synoptic pattern will once again promote mainly quiescent fire weather conditions over much of the Interior west. A dry low-level airmass will also linger over portions of the Ohio Valley, atop drying fuels. However, the lack of stronger surface winds suggests that Elevated highlights are not currently warranted. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0209 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...19z Update... No Changes, see previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 09/16/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0205 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025/ ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure will remain in place over much of the central and northern Rockies due to a stationary mid-level trough over the northern High Plains tomorrow (Wednesday). This synoptic pattern will once again promote mainly quiescent fire weather conditions over much of the Interior west. A dry low-level airmass will also linger over portions of the Ohio Valley, atop drying fuels. However, the lack of stronger surface winds suggests that Elevated highlights are not currently warranted. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday over southeast Colorado and northeast New Mexico during the late afternoon and evening. ...High Plains in lee of the Sangre de Cristos... A mid- to upper-level low/trough centered over the north-central Rockies and adjacent plains, will feature a few embedded mid-level vorticity maxima rotating through the larger-scale trough. The primary disturbance of interest will slowly migrate eastward from northeast CO into central NE during the period. A belt of moderate mid- to high-level westerly flow (i.e., 20-30 kt at 500 mb) will move through the base of the trough across southern CO. In the low levels, a front will become draped from the mid MO Valley south-southwest into the KS-CO-OK-TX-NM border region. Southeasterly moist post-frontal upslope flow will aid in a moist airmass over southeast CO on Wednesday. Steep 700-500 mb lapse rates around 7.5 to 8 deg C/km coupled with diurnal heating on the east-facing slopes, will result in moderate buoyancy by mid afternoon near the I-25 corridor over far northeast NM into southeast CO. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms developing initially over the higher terrain will move east into the high plains/escarpment and gradually mature/strengthen. Forecast soundings show 30-45 kt effective shear and elongated hodographs due to 75-kt 200-mb westerly flow. The magnitude of shear and appreciable buoyancy will probably favor an isolated risk for large hail and severe gusts with the stronger storms during the late afternoon/early evening. ...Northern OK into MN/WI... A seasonally moist airmass will be in place to the east of a surface boundary extending from eastern SD into central/southwest KS by late afternoon. Rounds of showers and thunderstorms are possible, and may be ongoing across parts of the region Wednesday morning. This activity and associated cloud cover cast doubt on where stronger destabilization will occur through peak heating. Furthermore, vertical shear is expected to remain weak, and lapse rates will be poor, especially with northward extent. A strong storm or two will be possible where stronger destabilization occurs, but overall severe potential is expected to remain limited. ..Smith.. 09/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday over southeast Colorado and northeast New Mexico during the late afternoon and evening. ...High Plains in lee of the Sangre de Cristos... A mid- to upper-level low/trough centered over the north-central Rockies and adjacent plains, will feature a few embedded mid-level vorticity maxima rotating through the larger-scale trough. The primary disturbance of interest will slowly migrate eastward from northeast CO into central NE during the period. A belt of moderate mid- to high-level westerly flow (i.e., 20-30 kt at 500 mb) will move through the base of the trough across southern CO. In the low levels, a front will become draped from the mid MO Valley south-southwest into the KS-CO-OK-TX-NM border region. Southeasterly moist post-frontal upslope flow will aid in a moist airmass over southeast CO on Wednesday. Steep 700-500 mb lapse rates around 7.5 to 8 deg C/km coupled with diurnal heating on the east-facing slopes, will result in moderate buoyancy by mid afternoon near the I-25 corridor over far northeast NM into southeast CO. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms developing initially over the higher terrain will move east into the high plains/escarpment and gradually mature/strengthen. Forecast soundings show 30-45 kt effective shear and elongated hodographs due to 75-kt 200-mb westerly flow. The magnitude of shear and appreciable buoyancy will probably favor an isolated risk for large hail and severe gusts with the stronger storms during the late afternoon/early evening. ...Northern OK into MN/WI... A seasonally moist airmass will be in place to the east of a surface boundary extending from eastern SD into central/southwest KS by late afternoon. Rounds of showers and thunderstorms are possible, and may be ongoing across parts of the region Wednesday morning. This activity and associated cloud cover cast doubt on where stronger destabilization will occur through peak heating. Furthermore, vertical shear is expected to remain weak, and lapse rates will be poor, especially with northward extent. A strong storm or two will be possible where stronger destabilization occurs, but overall severe potential is expected to remain limited. ..Smith.. 09/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday over southeast Colorado and northeast New Mexico during the late afternoon and evening. ...High Plains in lee of the Sangre de Cristos... A mid- to upper-level low/trough centered over the north-central Rockies and adjacent plains, will feature a few embedded mid-level vorticity maxima rotating through the larger-scale trough. The primary disturbance of interest will slowly migrate eastward from northeast CO into central NE during the period. A belt of moderate mid- to high-level westerly flow (i.e., 20-30 kt at 500 mb) will move through the base of the trough across southern CO. In the low levels, a front will become draped from the mid MO Valley south-southwest into the KS-CO-OK-TX-NM border region. Southeasterly moist post-frontal upslope flow will aid in a moist airmass over southeast CO on Wednesday. Steep 700-500 mb lapse rates around 7.5 to 8 deg C/km coupled with diurnal heating on the east-facing slopes, will result in moderate buoyancy by mid afternoon near the I-25 corridor over far northeast NM into southeast CO. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms developing initially over the higher terrain will move east into the high plains/escarpment and gradually mature/strengthen. Forecast soundings show 30-45 kt effective shear and elongated hodographs due to 75-kt 200-mb westerly flow. The magnitude of shear and appreciable buoyancy will probably favor an isolated risk for large hail and severe gusts with the stronger storms during the late afternoon/early evening. ...Northern OK into MN/WI... A seasonally moist airmass will be in place to the east of a surface boundary extending from eastern SD into central/southwest KS by late afternoon. Rounds of showers and thunderstorms are possible, and may be ongoing across parts of the region Wednesday morning. This activity and associated cloud cover cast doubt on where stronger destabilization will occur through peak heating. Furthermore, vertical shear is expected to remain weak, and lapse rates will be poor, especially with northward extent. A strong storm or two will be possible where stronger destabilization occurs, but overall severe potential is expected to remain limited. ..Smith.. 09/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday over southeast Colorado and northeast New Mexico during the late afternoon and evening. ...High Plains in lee of the Sangre de Cristos... A mid- to upper-level low/trough centered over the north-central Rockies and adjacent plains, will feature a few embedded mid-level vorticity maxima rotating through the larger-scale trough. The primary disturbance of interest will slowly migrate eastward from northeast CO into central NE during the period. A belt of moderate mid- to high-level westerly flow (i.e., 20-30 kt at 500 mb) will move through the base of the trough across southern CO. In the low levels, a front will become draped from the mid MO Valley south-southwest into the KS-CO-OK-TX-NM border region. Southeasterly moist post-frontal upslope flow will aid in a moist airmass over southeast CO on Wednesday. Steep 700-500 mb lapse rates around 7.5 to 8 deg C/km coupled with diurnal heating on the east-facing slopes, will result in moderate buoyancy by mid afternoon near the I-25 corridor over far northeast NM into southeast CO. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms developing initially over the higher terrain will move east into the high plains/escarpment and gradually mature/strengthen. Forecast soundings show 30-45 kt effective shear and elongated hodographs due to 75-kt 200-mb westerly flow. The magnitude of shear and appreciable buoyancy will probably favor an isolated risk for large hail and severe gusts with the stronger storms during the late afternoon/early evening. ...Northern OK into MN/WI... A seasonally moist airmass will be in place to the east of a surface boundary extending from eastern SD into central/southwest KS by late afternoon. Rounds of showers and thunderstorms are possible, and may be ongoing across parts of the region Wednesday morning. This activity and associated cloud cover cast doubt on where stronger destabilization will occur through peak heating. Furthermore, vertical shear is expected to remain weak, and lapse rates will be poor, especially with northward extent. A strong storm or two will be possible where stronger destabilization occurs, but overall severe potential is expected to remain limited. ..Smith.. 09/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday over southeast Colorado and northeast New Mexico during the late afternoon and evening. ...High Plains in lee of the Sangre de Cristos... A mid- to upper-level low/trough centered over the north-central Rockies and adjacent plains, will feature a few embedded mid-level vorticity maxima rotating through the larger-scale trough. The primary disturbance of interest will slowly migrate eastward from northeast CO into central NE during the period. A belt of moderate mid- to high-level westerly flow (i.e., 20-30 kt at 500 mb) will move through the base of the trough across southern CO. In the low levels, a front will become draped from the mid MO Valley south-southwest into the KS-CO-OK-TX-NM border region. Southeasterly moist post-frontal upslope flow will aid in a moist airmass over southeast CO on Wednesday. Steep 700-500 mb lapse rates around 7.5 to 8 deg C/km coupled with diurnal heating on the east-facing slopes, will result in moderate buoyancy by mid afternoon near the I-25 corridor over far northeast NM into southeast CO. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms developing initially over the higher terrain will move east into the high plains/escarpment and gradually mature/strengthen. Forecast soundings show 30-45 kt effective shear and elongated hodographs due to 75-kt 200-mb westerly flow. The magnitude of shear and appreciable buoyancy will probably favor an isolated risk for large hail and severe gusts with the stronger storms during the late afternoon/early evening. ...Northern OK into MN/WI... A seasonally moist airmass will be in place to the east of a surface boundary extending from eastern SD into central/southwest KS by late afternoon. Rounds of showers and thunderstorms are possible, and may be ongoing across parts of the region Wednesday morning. This activity and associated cloud cover cast doubt on where stronger destabilization will occur through peak heating. Furthermore, vertical shear is expected to remain weak, and lapse rates will be poor, especially with northward extent. A strong storm or two will be possible where stronger destabilization occurs, but overall severe potential is expected to remain limited. ..Smith.. 09/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday over southeast Colorado and northeast New Mexico during the late afternoon and evening. ...High Plains in lee of the Sangre de Cristos... A mid- to upper-level low/trough centered over the north-central Rockies and adjacent plains, will feature a few embedded mid-level vorticity maxima rotating through the larger-scale trough. The primary disturbance of interest will slowly migrate eastward from northeast CO into central NE during the period. A belt of moderate mid- to high-level westerly flow (i.e., 20-30 kt at 500 mb) will move through the base of the trough across southern CO. In the low levels, a front will become draped from the mid MO Valley south-southwest into the KS-CO-OK-TX-NM border region. Southeasterly moist post-frontal upslope flow will aid in a moist airmass over southeast CO on Wednesday. Steep 700-500 mb lapse rates around 7.5 to 8 deg C/km coupled with diurnal heating on the east-facing slopes, will result in moderate buoyancy by mid afternoon near the I-25 corridor over far northeast NM into southeast CO. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms developing initially over the higher terrain will move east into the high plains/escarpment and gradually mature/strengthen. Forecast soundings show 30-45 kt effective shear and elongated hodographs due to 75-kt 200-mb westerly flow. The magnitude of shear and appreciable buoyancy will probably favor an isolated risk for large hail and severe gusts with the stronger storms during the late afternoon/early evening. ...Northern OK into MN/WI... A seasonally moist airmass will be in place to the east of a surface boundary extending from eastern SD into central/southwest KS by late afternoon. Rounds of showers and thunderstorms are possible, and may be ongoing across parts of the region Wednesday morning. This activity and associated cloud cover cast doubt on where stronger destabilization will occur through peak heating. Furthermore, vertical shear is expected to remain weak, and lapse rates will be poor, especially with northward extent. A strong storm or two will be possible where stronger destabilization occurs, but overall severe potential is expected to remain limited. ..Smith.. 09/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday over southeast Colorado and northeast New Mexico during the late afternoon and evening. ...High Plains in lee of the Sangre de Cristos... A mid- to upper-level low/trough centered over the north-central Rockies and adjacent plains, will feature a few embedded mid-level vorticity maxima rotating through the larger-scale trough. The primary disturbance of interest will slowly migrate eastward from northeast CO into central NE during the period. A belt of moderate mid- to high-level westerly flow (i.e., 20-30 kt at 500 mb) will move through the base of the trough across southern CO. In the low levels, a front will become draped from the mid MO Valley south-southwest into the KS-CO-OK-TX-NM border region. Southeasterly moist post-frontal upslope flow will aid in a moist airmass over southeast CO on Wednesday. Steep 700-500 mb lapse rates around 7.5 to 8 deg C/km coupled with diurnal heating on the east-facing slopes, will result in moderate buoyancy by mid afternoon near the I-25 corridor over far northeast NM into southeast CO. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms developing initially over the higher terrain will move east into the high plains/escarpment and gradually mature/strengthen. Forecast soundings show 30-45 kt effective shear and elongated hodographs due to 75-kt 200-mb westerly flow. The magnitude of shear and appreciable buoyancy will probably favor an isolated risk for large hail and severe gusts with the stronger storms during the late afternoon/early evening. ...Northern OK into MN/WI... A seasonally moist airmass will be in place to the east of a surface boundary extending from eastern SD into central/southwest KS by late afternoon. Rounds of showers and thunderstorms are possible, and may be ongoing across parts of the region Wednesday morning. This activity and associated cloud cover cast doubt on where stronger destabilization will occur through peak heating. Furthermore, vertical shear is expected to remain weak, and lapse rates will be poor, especially with northward extent. A strong storm or two will be possible where stronger destabilization occurs, but overall severe potential is expected to remain limited. ..Smith.. 09/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday over southeast Colorado and northeast New Mexico during the late afternoon and evening. ...High Plains in lee of the Sangre de Cristos... A mid- to upper-level low/trough centered over the north-central Rockies and adjacent plains, will feature a few embedded mid-level vorticity maxima rotating through the larger-scale trough. The primary disturbance of interest will slowly migrate eastward from northeast CO into central NE during the period. A belt of moderate mid- to high-level westerly flow (i.e., 20-30 kt at 500 mb) will move through the base of the trough across southern CO. In the low levels, a front will become draped from the mid MO Valley south-southwest into the KS-CO-OK-TX-NM border region. Southeasterly moist post-frontal upslope flow will aid in a moist airmass over southeast CO on Wednesday. Steep 700-500 mb lapse rates around 7.5 to 8 deg C/km coupled with diurnal heating on the east-facing slopes, will result in moderate buoyancy by mid afternoon near the I-25 corridor over far northeast NM into southeast CO. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms developing initially over the higher terrain will move east into the high plains/escarpment and gradually mature/strengthen. Forecast soundings show 30-45 kt effective shear and elongated hodographs due to 75-kt 200-mb westerly flow. The magnitude of shear and appreciable buoyancy will probably favor an isolated risk for large hail and severe gusts with the stronger storms during the late afternoon/early evening. ...Northern OK into MN/WI... A seasonally moist airmass will be in place to the east of a surface boundary extending from eastern SD into central/southwest KS by late afternoon. Rounds of showers and thunderstorms are possible, and may be ongoing across parts of the region Wednesday morning. This activity and associated cloud cover cast doubt on where stronger destabilization will occur through peak heating. Furthermore, vertical shear is expected to remain weak, and lapse rates will be poor, especially with northward extent. A strong storm or two will be possible where stronger destabilization occurs, but overall severe potential is expected to remain limited. ..Smith.. 09/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday over southeast Colorado and northeast New Mexico during the late afternoon and evening. ...High Plains in lee of the Sangre de Cristos... A mid- to upper-level low/trough centered over the north-central Rockies and adjacent plains, will feature a few embedded mid-level vorticity maxima rotating through the larger-scale trough. The primary disturbance of interest will slowly migrate eastward from northeast CO into central NE during the period. A belt of moderate mid- to high-level westerly flow (i.e., 20-30 kt at 500 mb) will move through the base of the trough across southern CO. In the low levels, a front will become draped from the mid MO Valley south-southwest into the KS-CO-OK-TX-NM border region. Southeasterly moist post-frontal upslope flow will aid in a moist airmass over southeast CO on Wednesday. Steep 700-500 mb lapse rates around 7.5 to 8 deg C/km coupled with diurnal heating on the east-facing slopes, will result in moderate buoyancy by mid afternoon near the I-25 corridor over far northeast NM into southeast CO. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms developing initially over the higher terrain will move east into the high plains/escarpment and gradually mature/strengthen. Forecast soundings show 30-45 kt effective shear and elongated hodographs due to 75-kt 200-mb westerly flow. The magnitude of shear and appreciable buoyancy will probably favor an isolated risk for large hail and severe gusts with the stronger storms during the late afternoon/early evening. ...Northern OK into MN/WI... A seasonally moist airmass will be in place to the east of a surface boundary extending from eastern SD into central/southwest KS by late afternoon. Rounds of showers and thunderstorms are possible, and may be ongoing across parts of the region Wednesday morning. This activity and associated cloud cover cast doubt on where stronger destabilization will occur through peak heating. Furthermore, vertical shear is expected to remain weak, and lapse rates will be poor, especially with northward extent. A strong storm or two will be possible where stronger destabilization occurs, but overall severe potential is expected to remain limited. ..Smith.. 09/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday over southeast Colorado and northeast New Mexico during the late afternoon and evening. ...High Plains in lee of the Sangre de Cristos... A mid- to upper-level low/trough centered over the north-central Rockies and adjacent plains, will feature a few embedded mid-level vorticity maxima rotating through the larger-scale trough. The primary disturbance of interest will slowly migrate eastward from northeast CO into central NE during the period. A belt of moderate mid- to high-level westerly flow (i.e., 20-30 kt at 500 mb) will move through the base of the trough across southern CO. In the low levels, a front will become draped from the mid MO Valley south-southwest into the KS-CO-OK-TX-NM border region. Southeasterly moist post-frontal upslope flow will aid in a moist airmass over southeast CO on Wednesday. Steep 700-500 mb lapse rates around 7.5 to 8 deg C/km coupled with diurnal heating on the east-facing slopes, will result in moderate buoyancy by mid afternoon near the I-25 corridor over far northeast NM into southeast CO. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms developing initially over the higher terrain will move east into the high plains/escarpment and gradually mature/strengthen. Forecast soundings show 30-45 kt effective shear and elongated hodographs due to 75-kt 200-mb westerly flow. The magnitude of shear and appreciable buoyancy will probably favor an isolated risk for large hail and severe gusts with the stronger storms during the late afternoon/early evening. ...Northern OK into MN/WI... A seasonally moist airmass will be in place to the east of a surface boundary extending from eastern SD into central/southwest KS by late afternoon. Rounds of showers and thunderstorms are possible, and may be ongoing across parts of the region Wednesday morning. This activity and associated cloud cover cast doubt on where stronger destabilization will occur through peak heating. Furthermore, vertical shear is expected to remain weak, and lapse rates will be poor, especially with northward extent. A strong storm or two will be possible where stronger destabilization occurs, but overall severe potential is expected to remain limited. ..Smith.. 09/16/2025 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 161720
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue Sep 16 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Mario, located a few hundred miles west of the southern tip of
the Baja California Peninsula.

Off the Coast of Southwestern Mexico (EP96):
An area of low pressure located several hundred miles off the coast
of southern Mexico continues to produce a large area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for additional development of this system, and a tropical
depression is likely to form during the next couple of days as it
moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the central east
Pacific.
*Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
*Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kelly