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5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 17 Sep 2025 02:34:55 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 17 Sep 2025 03:21:22 GMT

MD 2090 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 612... FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN KANSAS INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA
Mesoscale Discussion 2090 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0844 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025 Areas affected...portions of northwestern Kansas into central Nebraska Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 612... Valid 170144Z - 170315Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 612 continues. SUMMARY...Some severe threat will persist for a few more hours, with severe gusts/hail the main threats. DISCUSSION...Currently, two general areas of convection continue to show severe potential. Firstly, a line of thunderstorms has quickly intensified across extreme northwestern KS, along the NE border, in association with several cold pool and convective outflow boundary mergers. These storms will continue to propagate east-southeastward amid a buoyant airmass characterized by 1500 J/kg MLCAPE. In central NE, an embedded bowing structure has produced some measured 50+ kt gusts, and this potential may continue for the next hour or so as well. However, waning buoyancy and increasing MLCINH amid boundary-layer decoupling should gradually reduce severe potential over the next few hours. ..Squitieri.. 09/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD... LAT...LON 39130233 39730197 40170150 40880008 41669972 41989934 42059879 41859831 41379814 40839823 40219854 39749882 39429916 39179963 39030031 38980079 38950147 39130233 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 17 2025 452 FOPZ13 KNHC 170233 PWSEP3 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE MARIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132025 0300 UTC WED SEP 17 2025 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE MARIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 118.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 25N 120W 34 2 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER HAGEN

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 17 Sep 2025 02:34:55 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 17 Sep 2025 02:34:55 GMT

Issued at 800 PM PDT Tue Sep 16 2025 059 WTPZ43 KNHC 170234 TCDEP3 Post-Tropical Cyclone Mario Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132025 800 PM PDT Tue Sep 16 2025 Mario has not produced any deep convection for more than 12 hours. The system is now over sea-surface temperatures of 23C and southwesterly wind shear is increasing. All guidance is in good agreement that the remnant low of Mario will continue to weaken and dissipate on Thursday. The remnant low of Mario is moving northwestward at 9 kt, and this general motion is expected to continue, with a slight decrease in forward speed until dissipation, as Mario is steered by the low-level flow. The NHC track forecast has been adjusted a bit to the northeast, or right, of the previous forecast, closer to most of the latest consensus models. While the remnant low of Mario is forecast to dissipate well to the south of California, its remnant moisture will spread farther north, affecting portions of the southwestern United States by mid to late week. Locally heavy rainfall and some instances of flash flooding will be possible by Thursday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0300Z 23.7N 118.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 17/1200Z 24.7N 119.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 18/0000Z 25.6N 119.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 18/1200Z 26.3N 120.2W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Hagen

...MARIO BECOMES A REMNANT LOW AND THIS IS THE FINAL ADVISORY... ...MOISTURE FROM MARIO COULD AFFECT THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES BY THURSDAY... As of 8:00 PM PDT Tue Sep 16 the center of Mario was located near 23.7, -118.3 with movement NW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.

Issued at 800 PM PDT Tue Sep 16 2025 264 WTPZ33 KNHC 170233 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Mario Advisory Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132025 800 PM PDT Tue Sep 16 2025 ...MARIO BECOMES A REMNANT LOW AND THIS IS THE FINAL ADVISORY... ...MOISTURE FROM MARIO COULD AFFECT THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES BY THURSDAY... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.7N 118.3W ABOUT 535 MI...860 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Mario was located near latitude 23.7 North, longitude 118.3 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue with a decrease in forward speed over the next day. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. The remnants of Mario will continue to weaken, with dissipation expected by Thursday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. $$ Forecaster Hagen

Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 17 2025 753 WTPZ23 KNHC 170233 TCMEP3 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE MARIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132025 0300 UTC WED SEP 17 2025 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.7N 118.3W AT 17/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.7N 118.3W AT 17/0300Z AT 17/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 118.0W FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 24.7N 119.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 25.6N 119.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 26.3N 120.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.7N 118.3W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM $$ FORECASTER HAGEN

Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 17 2025 ZCZC MIATCMEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE MARIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132025 0300 UTC WED SEP 17 2025 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.7N 118.3W AT 17/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.7N 118.3W AT 17/0300Z AT 17/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 118.0W FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 24.7N 119.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 25.6N 119.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 26.3N 120.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.7N 118.3W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM $$ FORECASTER HAGEN NNNN

WW 0612 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 612 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW GLD TO 20 S IML TO 25 SSE BBW. WW 612 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 170300Z. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2090 ..SQUITIERI..09/17/25 ATTN...WFO...BOU...GLD...LBF...CYS...GID... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 612 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC023-039-065-137-147-153-163-179-193-170300- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE DECATUR GRAHAM NORTON PHILLIPS RAWLINS ROOKS SHERIDAN THOMAS NEC019-061-065-073-077-079-083-087-093-099-137-145-163-175- 170300- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUFFALO FRANKLIN FURNAS GOSPER GREELEY HALL HARLAN HITCHCOCK HOWARD KEARNEY PHELPS RED WILLOW SHERMAN VALLEY Read more

WW 612 SEVERE TSTM CO KS NE 162005Z - 170300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 612 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 305 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northeast Colorado Northwest Kansas Western and Central Nebraska * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 305 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorms will continue to develop this afternoon, initially and particularly across west-central/southwest Nebraska and northwest Kansas. Additional and potentially a secondary round of development will occur later this afternoon as stronger upper-level support arrives from the post and the post-frontal low-level upslope environment evolves. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles east and west of a line from 10 miles northwest of Valentine NE to 65 miles south of Imperial NE. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 22025. ...Guyer Read more

MD 2089 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 612... FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO EXTREME NORTHWESTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN TO CENTRAL NEBRASKA
Mesoscale Discussion 2089 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0707 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025 Areas affected...portions of northeast Colorado into extreme northwestern Kansas and western to central Nebraska Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 612... Valid 170007Z - 170130Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 612 continues. SUMMARY...A severe hail/wind threat should persist over the next few hours, especially over southwestern NE into northwestern KS. DISCUSSION...Multicells and transient supercell structures have merged over several locations, resulting in storms percolating in intensity, with the production of severe wind and/or hail as storms peak in strength. However, updrafts have been undercut by outflow from neighboring storms. Any storms that track eastward over southwestern NE into northwestern KS over the next few hours may produce a few more instances of severe wind/hail, since the airmass here remains buoyant (e.g. 2500+ J/kg MLCAPE). Still, deep-layer flow/shear remains weak over the central Plains, so storms will need to propagate into this airmass by way of a cold pool. Cold pools will also undercut updrafts in this environment as a tradeoff, allowing storms to only be potentially severe for brief periods of time. As such, the overall severe threat should gradually become more isolated into the early overnight hours. ..Squitieri.. 09/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU... LAT...LON 39880384 40240231 40580161 41690079 42280020 42299977 42099953 41609901 41189877 40519885 40069906 39559935 39339961 39280013 39460197 39500292 39600351 39880384 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0738 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025 Valid 170100Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHWEST KS AND SOUTHWEST NE... ...SUMMARY... A diminishing severe threat is expected over the central Great Plains tonight. ...CO/KS/NE... Primary severe potential will remain over the next 1-2 hours with several semi-discrete updrafts across northeast CO, southwest NE, and northwest KS. Strong low-level convergence in the tri-state border area will foster amalgamation of these updrafts into a broader cluster. This will hamper sustained hail growth and support a diminishing severe threat. With only moderate mid-level west-southwesterlies sampled in upstream VWPs along the Front Range and nocturnally increasing MLCIN across the warm sector, later evening clusters should struggle to greatly organize and severe wind potential should remain isolated/sporadic. ..Grams.. 09/17/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0738 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025 Valid 170100Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHWEST KS AND SOUTHWEST NE... ...SUMMARY... A diminishing severe threat is expected over the central Great Plains tonight. ...CO/KS/NE... Primary severe potential will remain over the next 1-2 hours with several semi-discrete updrafts across northeast CO, southwest NE, and northwest KS. Strong low-level convergence in the tri-state border area will foster amalgamation of these updrafts into a broader cluster. This will hamper sustained hail growth and support a diminishing severe threat. With only moderate mid-level west-southwesterlies sampled in upstream VWPs along the Front Range and nocturnally increasing MLCIN across the warm sector, later evening clusters should struggle to greatly organize and severe wind potential should remain isolated/sporadic. ..Grams.. 09/17/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0738 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025 Valid 170100Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHWEST KS AND SOUTHWEST NE... ...SUMMARY... A diminishing severe threat is expected over the central Great Plains tonight. ...CO/KS/NE... Primary severe potential will remain over the next 1-2 hours with several semi-discrete updrafts across northeast CO, southwest NE, and northwest KS. Strong low-level convergence in the tri-state border area will foster amalgamation of these updrafts into a broader cluster. This will hamper sustained hail growth and support a diminishing severe threat. With only moderate mid-level west-southwesterlies sampled in upstream VWPs along the Front Range and nocturnally increasing MLCIN across the warm sector, later evening clusters should struggle to greatly organize and severe wind potential should remain isolated/sporadic. ..Grams.. 09/17/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0738 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025 Valid 170100Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHWEST KS AND SOUTHWEST NE... ...SUMMARY... A diminishing severe threat is expected over the central Great Plains tonight. ...CO/KS/NE... Primary severe potential will remain over the next 1-2 hours with several semi-discrete updrafts across northeast CO, southwest NE, and northwest KS. Strong low-level convergence in the tri-state border area will foster amalgamation of these updrafts into a broader cluster. This will hamper sustained hail growth and support a diminishing severe threat. With only moderate mid-level west-southwesterlies sampled in upstream VWPs along the Front Range and nocturnally increasing MLCIN across the warm sector, later evening clusters should struggle to greatly organize and severe wind potential should remain isolated/sporadic. ..Grams.. 09/17/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0738 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025 Valid 170100Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHWEST KS AND SOUTHWEST NE... ...SUMMARY... A diminishing severe threat is expected over the central Great Plains tonight. ...CO/KS/NE... Primary severe potential will remain over the next 1-2 hours with several semi-discrete updrafts across northeast CO, southwest NE, and northwest KS. Strong low-level convergence in the tri-state border area will foster amalgamation of these updrafts into a broader cluster. This will hamper sustained hail growth and support a diminishing severe threat. With only moderate mid-level west-southwesterlies sampled in upstream VWPs along the Front Range and nocturnally increasing MLCIN across the warm sector, later evening clusters should struggle to greatly organize and severe wind potential should remain isolated/sporadic. ..Grams.. 09/17/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0738 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025 Valid 170100Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHWEST KS AND SOUTHWEST NE... ...SUMMARY... A diminishing severe threat is expected over the central Great Plains tonight. ...CO/KS/NE... Primary severe potential will remain over the next 1-2 hours with several semi-discrete updrafts across northeast CO, southwest NE, and northwest KS. Strong low-level convergence in the tri-state border area will foster amalgamation of these updrafts into a broader cluster. This will hamper sustained hail growth and support a diminishing severe threat. With only moderate mid-level west-southwesterlies sampled in upstream VWPs along the Front Range and nocturnally increasing MLCIN across the warm sector, later evening clusters should struggle to greatly organize and severe wind potential should remain isolated/sporadic. ..Grams.. 09/17/2025 Read more

WW 0612 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 612 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE AKO TO 25 ENE IML TO 25 NNE VTN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2089 ..SQUITIERI..09/17/25 ATTN...WFO...BOU...GLD...LBF...CYS...GID... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 612 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC121-125-170140- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE WASHINGTON YUMA KSC023-039-065-137-147-153-163-179-193-170140- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE DECATUR GRAHAM NORTON PHILLIPS RAWLINS ROOKS SHERIDAN THOMAS NEC009-017-019-029-041-047-057-061-063-065-073-077-079-083-085- 087-093-099-103-111-113-115-137-145-149-163-171-175-170140- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

MD 2087 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 2087 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0524 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025 Areas affected...Arrowhead of Minnesota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 162224Z - 170030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...A few strong-severe thunderstorms are developing over the Arrowhead region of Minnesota. Some risk for hail/wind can be expected with these storms. DISCUSSION...Southern extent of SK/ON short-wave trough is influencing the international border region, especially the Arrowhead of MN. Strong boundary-layer heating has contributed to substantial buoyancy across this region, and inhibition is currently negligible where temperatures have warmed into the mid 80s. Latest visible imagery supports this with a considerable amount of congestus and towering cu over St. Louis County. Over the last few minutes, a weak shower, with lightning, has developed near Ely and this updraft is likely rooted within a confluent boundary layer characterized by 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Forecast soundings favor some risk for hail/wind as thunderstorms intensify ahead of the short wave. This activity will spread across the Arrowhead into northwest ON, but current thinking is the area is too limited to issue a severe thunderstorm watch. ..Darrow/Gleason.. 09/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DLH... LAT...LON 47409303 48369129 47948953 46749205 47409303 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more