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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL IA INTO WESTERN MO...EASTERN KS...NORTHWEST AR...OK...AND THE SOUTHEAST TX PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Strong to locally severe storms are possible from parts of the Midwest into the east-central and southern Plains on Thursday. ...Synopsis... Little change to the overall pattern is expected on Thursday, with a mid/upper-level trough expected to persist over the northern/central Plains. Within the broader trough, distinct mid/upper-level lows initially over northeast MT and central SD may begin to consolidate by Thursday night, as a convectively enhanced midlevel shortwave moves through the base of the trough from the central Plains into the lower MO Valley vicinity. Farther west, a mid/upper-level trough related to the remnants of Tropical Cyclone Mario will move across parts of southern/central CA through the period. ...Parts of the east-central and southern Plains into the Ozarks and Upper Midwest... A weak surface low is forecast to move eastward across eastern SD on Thursday. A weak surface front will extend southward from the low across western MN/IA into eastern KS, and then southwestward into parts of OK and the TX Panhandle. The south and east extent of this front will be influenced by rather extensive early-morning convection. To the east of any remnant morning convection and cloud debris, moderate destabilization and steepening of low-level lapse rates will be possible from northeast OK into parts of MO/IA. Scattered storm development is expected during the afternoon. Deep-layer shear will remain rather weak, but a few weakly organized cells or clusters could evolve and pose some threat of locally damaging wind. Farther southwest along the trailing portion of the front, deep-layer shear will be somewhat stronger across parts of OK into the TX Panhandle, as midlevel winds veer to west-northwesterly. Storm coverage with southwest extent is rather uncertain, with the primary midlevel shortwave trough becoming increasingly removed from the region, but an isolated organized cell or two may evolve and pose some threat for hail and/or strong gusts. ...Southwest... Increasing moisture and the approaching mid/upper-level trough will support at least scattered storms across parts of southern/central AZ into southeast CA and far southern NV. Some modest enhancement to midlevel flow may overspread this region during the afternoon, but deep-layer shear is currently expected to remain rather weak. As a result, storms may remain disorganized, but localized downbursts cannot be ruled out, especially where stronger pre-storm heating occurs. ..Dean.. 09/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL IA INTO WESTERN MO...EASTERN KS...NORTHWEST AR...OK...AND THE SOUTHEAST TX PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Strong to locally severe storms are possible from parts of the Midwest into the east-central and southern Plains on Thursday. ...Synopsis... Little change to the overall pattern is expected on Thursday, with a mid/upper-level trough expected to persist over the northern/central Plains. Within the broader trough, distinct mid/upper-level lows initially over northeast MT and central SD may begin to consolidate by Thursday night, as a convectively enhanced midlevel shortwave moves through the base of the trough from the central Plains into the lower MO Valley vicinity. Farther west, a mid/upper-level trough related to the remnants of Tropical Cyclone Mario will move across parts of southern/central CA through the period. ...Parts of the east-central and southern Plains into the Ozarks and Upper Midwest... A weak surface low is forecast to move eastward across eastern SD on Thursday. A weak surface front will extend southward from the low across western MN/IA into eastern KS, and then southwestward into parts of OK and the TX Panhandle. The south and east extent of this front will be influenced by rather extensive early-morning convection. To the east of any remnant morning convection and cloud debris, moderate destabilization and steepening of low-level lapse rates will be possible from northeast OK into parts of MO/IA. Scattered storm development is expected during the afternoon. Deep-layer shear will remain rather weak, but a few weakly organized cells or clusters could evolve and pose some threat of locally damaging wind. Farther southwest along the trailing portion of the front, deep-layer shear will be somewhat stronger across parts of OK into the TX Panhandle, as midlevel winds veer to west-northwesterly. Storm coverage with southwest extent is rather uncertain, with the primary midlevel shortwave trough becoming increasingly removed from the region, but an isolated organized cell or two may evolve and pose some threat for hail and/or strong gusts. ...Southwest... Increasing moisture and the approaching mid/upper-level trough will support at least scattered storms across parts of southern/central AZ into southeast CA and far southern NV. Some modest enhancement to midlevel flow may overspread this region during the afternoon, but deep-layer shear is currently expected to remain rather weak. As a result, storms may remain disorganized, but localized downbursts cannot be ruled out, especially where stronger pre-storm heating occurs. ..Dean.. 09/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL IA INTO WESTERN MO...EASTERN KS...NORTHWEST AR...OK...AND THE SOUTHEAST TX PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Strong to locally severe storms are possible from parts of the Midwest into the east-central and southern Plains on Thursday. ...Synopsis... Little change to the overall pattern is expected on Thursday, with a mid/upper-level trough expected to persist over the northern/central Plains. Within the broader trough, distinct mid/upper-level lows initially over northeast MT and central SD may begin to consolidate by Thursday night, as a convectively enhanced midlevel shortwave moves through the base of the trough from the central Plains into the lower MO Valley vicinity. Farther west, a mid/upper-level trough related to the remnants of Tropical Cyclone Mario will move across parts of southern/central CA through the period. ...Parts of the east-central and southern Plains into the Ozarks and Upper Midwest... A weak surface low is forecast to move eastward across eastern SD on Thursday. A weak surface front will extend southward from the low across western MN/IA into eastern KS, and then southwestward into parts of OK and the TX Panhandle. The south and east extent of this front will be influenced by rather extensive early-morning convection. To the east of any remnant morning convection and cloud debris, moderate destabilization and steepening of low-level lapse rates will be possible from northeast OK into parts of MO/IA. Scattered storm development is expected during the afternoon. Deep-layer shear will remain rather weak, but a few weakly organized cells or clusters could evolve and pose some threat of locally damaging wind. Farther southwest along the trailing portion of the front, deep-layer shear will be somewhat stronger across parts of OK into the TX Panhandle, as midlevel winds veer to west-northwesterly. Storm coverage with southwest extent is rather uncertain, with the primary midlevel shortwave trough becoming increasingly removed from the region, but an isolated organized cell or two may evolve and pose some threat for hail and/or strong gusts. ...Southwest... Increasing moisture and the approaching mid/upper-level trough will support at least scattered storms across parts of southern/central AZ into southeast CA and far southern NV. Some modest enhancement to midlevel flow may overspread this region during the afternoon, but deep-layer shear is currently expected to remain rather weak. As a result, storms may remain disorganized, but localized downbursts cannot be ruled out, especially where stronger pre-storm heating occurs. ..Dean.. 09/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL IA INTO WESTERN MO...EASTERN KS...NORTHWEST AR...OK...AND THE SOUTHEAST TX PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Strong to locally severe storms are possible from parts of the Midwest into the east-central and southern Plains on Thursday. ...Synopsis... Little change to the overall pattern is expected on Thursday, with a mid/upper-level trough expected to persist over the northern/central Plains. Within the broader trough, distinct mid/upper-level lows initially over northeast MT and central SD may begin to consolidate by Thursday night, as a convectively enhanced midlevel shortwave moves through the base of the trough from the central Plains into the lower MO Valley vicinity. Farther west, a mid/upper-level trough related to the remnants of Tropical Cyclone Mario will move across parts of southern/central CA through the period. ...Parts of the east-central and southern Plains into the Ozarks and Upper Midwest... A weak surface low is forecast to move eastward across eastern SD on Thursday. A weak surface front will extend southward from the low across western MN/IA into eastern KS, and then southwestward into parts of OK and the TX Panhandle. The south and east extent of this front will be influenced by rather extensive early-morning convection. To the east of any remnant morning convection and cloud debris, moderate destabilization and steepening of low-level lapse rates will be possible from northeast OK into parts of MO/IA. Scattered storm development is expected during the afternoon. Deep-layer shear will remain rather weak, but a few weakly organized cells or clusters could evolve and pose some threat of locally damaging wind. Farther southwest along the trailing portion of the front, deep-layer shear will be somewhat stronger across parts of OK into the TX Panhandle, as midlevel winds veer to west-northwesterly. Storm coverage with southwest extent is rather uncertain, with the primary midlevel shortwave trough becoming increasingly removed from the region, but an isolated organized cell or two may evolve and pose some threat for hail and/or strong gusts. ...Southwest... Increasing moisture and the approaching mid/upper-level trough will support at least scattered storms across parts of southern/central AZ into southeast CA and far southern NV. Some modest enhancement to midlevel flow may overspread this region during the afternoon, but deep-layer shear is currently expected to remain rather weak. As a result, storms may remain disorganized, but localized downbursts cannot be ruled out, especially where stronger pre-storm heating occurs. ..Dean.. 09/17/2025 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 171716
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Wed Sep 17 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Off the Coast of Southwestern Mexico (EP96):
A broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles off the
coast of southwestern Mexico is producing a large area of showers
and thunderstorms. Recent satellite derived winds depict that the
low is becoming better organized. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for further development of this system, and a tropical
depression is likely to form in the next day or two while it moves
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the central portion of the
east Pacific.
*Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
*Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

A burn ban was issued for Cairo until further notice starting Wednesday, September 17. The public was prohibited from lighting any fires. WTEN ABC News 10 (Albany, N.Y.), Sep 17, 2025

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...17z Update... No changes. Initial thunderstorm activity observed ahead of the moisture surge associated with the remnants of tropical storm Mario may pose a brief risk for lightning ignitions across portions of southern CA this afternoon and evening. However, PWATS should rapidly increase above 1.5 inches with a high likelihood of wetting rainfall. Additionally, area fuels are less receptive owing to the increase in RH, suggesting only a brief/localized risk for ignitions. See the prior discussion. ..Lyons.. 09/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will meander over the Rockies while another upper trough impinges on the West Coast and upper ridging persists over the Mississippi Valley today. Surface high pressure will become established over the Rockies, promoting relatively quiescent fire weather conditions over the Interior West. Meanwhile, a dry low-level airmass will continue to linger over the Ohio Valley, where fuels have been gradually drying. Surface winds appear too weak to support widespread, significant wildfire growth potential, though localized wildfire conditions are a concern where stronger gusts may overspread dry fuel beds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...17z Update... No changes. Initial thunderstorm activity observed ahead of the moisture surge associated with the remnants of tropical storm Mario may pose a brief risk for lightning ignitions across portions of southern CA this afternoon and evening. However, PWATS should rapidly increase above 1.5 inches with a high likelihood of wetting rainfall. Additionally, area fuels are less receptive owing to the increase in RH, suggesting only a brief/localized risk for ignitions. See the prior discussion. ..Lyons.. 09/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will meander over the Rockies while another upper trough impinges on the West Coast and upper ridging persists over the Mississippi Valley today. Surface high pressure will become established over the Rockies, promoting relatively quiescent fire weather conditions over the Interior West. Meanwhile, a dry low-level airmass will continue to linger over the Ohio Valley, where fuels have been gradually drying. Surface winds appear too weak to support widespread, significant wildfire growth potential, though localized wildfire conditions are a concern where stronger gusts may overspread dry fuel beds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...17z Update... No changes. Initial thunderstorm activity observed ahead of the moisture surge associated with the remnants of tropical storm Mario may pose a brief risk for lightning ignitions across portions of southern CA this afternoon and evening. However, PWATS should rapidly increase above 1.5 inches with a high likelihood of wetting rainfall. Additionally, area fuels are less receptive owing to the increase in RH, suggesting only a brief/localized risk for ignitions. See the prior discussion. ..Lyons.. 09/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will meander over the Rockies while another upper trough impinges on the West Coast and upper ridging persists over the Mississippi Valley today. Surface high pressure will become established over the Rockies, promoting relatively quiescent fire weather conditions over the Interior West. Meanwhile, a dry low-level airmass will continue to linger over the Ohio Valley, where fuels have been gradually drying. Surface winds appear too weak to support widespread, significant wildfire growth potential, though localized wildfire conditions are a concern where stronger gusts may overspread dry fuel beds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...17z Update... No changes. Initial thunderstorm activity observed ahead of the moisture surge associated with the remnants of tropical storm Mario may pose a brief risk for lightning ignitions across portions of southern CA this afternoon and evening. However, PWATS should rapidly increase above 1.5 inches with a high likelihood of wetting rainfall. Additionally, area fuels are less receptive owing to the increase in RH, suggesting only a brief/localized risk for ignitions. See the prior discussion. ..Lyons.. 09/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will meander over the Rockies while another upper trough impinges on the West Coast and upper ridging persists over the Mississippi Valley today. Surface high pressure will become established over the Rockies, promoting relatively quiescent fire weather conditions over the Interior West. Meanwhile, a dry low-level airmass will continue to linger over the Ohio Valley, where fuels have been gradually drying. Surface winds appear too weak to support widespread, significant wildfire growth potential, though localized wildfire conditions are a concern where stronger gusts may overspread dry fuel beds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...17z Update... No changes. Initial thunderstorm activity observed ahead of the moisture surge associated with the remnants of tropical storm Mario may pose a brief risk for lightning ignitions across portions of southern CA this afternoon and evening. However, PWATS should rapidly increase above 1.5 inches with a high likelihood of wetting rainfall. Additionally, area fuels are less receptive owing to the increase in RH, suggesting only a brief/localized risk for ignitions. See the prior discussion. ..Lyons.. 09/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will meander over the Rockies while another upper trough impinges on the West Coast and upper ridging persists over the Mississippi Valley today. Surface high pressure will become established over the Rockies, promoting relatively quiescent fire weather conditions over the Interior West. Meanwhile, a dry low-level airmass will continue to linger over the Ohio Valley, where fuels have been gradually drying. Surface winds appear too weak to support widespread, significant wildfire growth potential, though localized wildfire conditions are a concern where stronger gusts may overspread dry fuel beds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...17z Update... No changes. Initial thunderstorm activity observed ahead of the moisture surge associated with the remnants of tropical storm Mario may pose a brief risk for lightning ignitions across portions of southern CA this afternoon and evening. However, PWATS should rapidly increase above 1.5 inches with a high likelihood of wetting rainfall. Additionally, area fuels are less receptive owing to the increase in RH, suggesting only a brief/localized risk for ignitions. See the prior discussion. ..Lyons.. 09/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will meander over the Rockies while another upper trough impinges on the West Coast and upper ridging persists over the Mississippi Valley today. Surface high pressure will become established over the Rockies, promoting relatively quiescent fire weather conditions over the Interior West. Meanwhile, a dry low-level airmass will continue to linger over the Ohio Valley, where fuels have been gradually drying. Surface winds appear too weak to support widespread, significant wildfire growth potential, though localized wildfire conditions are a concern where stronger gusts may overspread dry fuel beds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...17z Update... No changes. Initial thunderstorm activity observed ahead of the moisture surge associated with the remnants of tropical storm Mario may pose a brief risk for lightning ignitions across portions of southern CA this afternoon and evening. However, PWATS should rapidly increase above 1.5 inches with a high likelihood of wetting rainfall. Additionally, area fuels are less receptive owing to the increase in RH, suggesting only a brief/localized risk for ignitions. See the prior discussion. ..Lyons.. 09/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will meander over the Rockies while another upper trough impinges on the West Coast and upper ridging persists over the Mississippi Valley today. Surface high pressure will become established over the Rockies, promoting relatively quiescent fire weather conditions over the Interior West. Meanwhile, a dry low-level airmass will continue to linger over the Ohio Valley, where fuels have been gradually drying. Surface winds appear too weak to support widespread, significant wildfire growth potential, though localized wildfire conditions are a concern where stronger gusts may overspread dry fuel beds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...17z Update... No changes. Initial thunderstorm activity observed ahead of the moisture surge associated with the remnants of tropical storm Mario may pose a brief risk for lightning ignitions across portions of southern CA this afternoon and evening. However, PWATS should rapidly increase above 1.5 inches with a high likelihood of wetting rainfall. Additionally, area fuels are less receptive owing to the increase in RH, suggesting only a brief/localized risk for ignitions. See the prior discussion. ..Lyons.. 09/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will meander over the Rockies while another upper trough impinges on the West Coast and upper ridging persists over the Mississippi Valley today. Surface high pressure will become established over the Rockies, promoting relatively quiescent fire weather conditions over the Interior West. Meanwhile, a dry low-level airmass will continue to linger over the Ohio Valley, where fuels have been gradually drying. Surface winds appear too weak to support widespread, significant wildfire growth potential, though localized wildfire conditions are a concern where stronger gusts may overspread dry fuel beds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

Corn yields in Cass County were down 20 to 30 bushels per acre, and soybean yields were about 8 to 15 bpa lower, due to the dry end to summer. Kernels were slightly smaller, so it required more kernels to make a bushel. Ag Web (Mexico, Mo.), Sep 17, 2025

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE RATON MESA/SOUTHERN COLORADO FRONT RANGE AND SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible, mainly during late afternoon to mid-evening, across parts of the south-central High Plains. The most likely corridor is from the southern Colorado Front Range/Raton Mesa into the western Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles, where large hail, severe gusts, and a brief tornado are possible. ...Front Range/Raton Mesa and south-central High Plains... A prominent upper trough will continue to pivot over the northern High Plains with a base-embedded shortwave trough/speed max spreading southeastward over Colorado toward the south-central High Plains by tonight. A related front will continue to settle south-southeastward with moist low-level upslope flow in its wake across southeast Colorado/Raton Mesa vicinity and the nearby south-central High Plains. Buoyancy will be adequate for some supercells as flow aloft strengthens and low-level winds take on more of an easterly component. Bouts of large hail can be expected, with severe-caliber winds also possible, particularly with the southernmost development toward the Panhandles. A brief/low-end tornado risk may also exist near the boundary and within the immediate post-frontal environment. ...South-central/eastern Kansas to Iowa/Missouri... MCV/modest-strength cyclonic flow aloft and zones of moderate destabilization to the east of the residual early day convection and cloud debris seems likely to influence a redevelopment and intensification of convection this afternoon. Even with some MCV-related flow enhancement, deep-layer shear will remain weak overall, but some episodic severe storms could occur with locally damaging winds and some hail. ...Southern Louisiana... As a cumulus field continues to develop/expand late this morning per visible satellite imagery, scattered thunderstorm development is likely this afternoon. As the boundary layer warms and destabilizes, thermodynamic profiles will become favorable for the possibility of some localized downbursts. ...Southern Minnesota/northern Wisconsin... A few strong storms and perhaps a locally severe storm or two could occur this afternoon into evening as the upper trough interfaces with the front and moderately unstable environment, especially with eastward extent away from residual early day cloud cover/scattered precipitation. However, very weak deep tropospheric winds should keep any pulse-type severe potential rather marginal/localized overall. ..Guyer/Thornton.. 09/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE RATON MESA/SOUTHERN COLORADO FRONT RANGE AND SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible, mainly during late afternoon to mid-evening, across parts of the south-central High Plains. The most likely corridor is from the southern Colorado Front Range/Raton Mesa into the western Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles, where large hail, severe gusts, and a brief tornado are possible. ...Front Range/Raton Mesa and south-central High Plains... A prominent upper trough will continue to pivot over the northern High Plains with a base-embedded shortwave trough/speed max spreading southeastward over Colorado toward the south-central High Plains by tonight. A related front will continue to settle south-southeastward with moist low-level upslope flow in its wake across southeast Colorado/Raton Mesa vicinity and the nearby south-central High Plains. Buoyancy will be adequate for some supercells as flow aloft strengthens and low-level winds take on more of an easterly component. Bouts of large hail can be expected, with severe-caliber winds also possible, particularly with the southernmost development toward the Panhandles. A brief/low-end tornado risk may also exist near the boundary and within the immediate post-frontal environment. ...South-central/eastern Kansas to Iowa/Missouri... MCV/modest-strength cyclonic flow aloft and zones of moderate destabilization to the east of the residual early day convection and cloud debris seems likely to influence a redevelopment and intensification of convection this afternoon. Even with some MCV-related flow enhancement, deep-layer shear will remain weak overall, but some episodic severe storms could occur with locally damaging winds and some hail. ...Southern Louisiana... As a cumulus field continues to develop/expand late this morning per visible satellite imagery, scattered thunderstorm development is likely this afternoon. As the boundary layer warms and destabilizes, thermodynamic profiles will become favorable for the possibility of some localized downbursts. ...Southern Minnesota/northern Wisconsin... A few strong storms and perhaps a locally severe storm or two could occur this afternoon into evening as the upper trough interfaces with the front and moderately unstable environment, especially with eastward extent away from residual early day cloud cover/scattered precipitation. However, very weak deep tropospheric winds should keep any pulse-type severe potential rather marginal/localized overall. ..Guyer/Thornton.. 09/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE RATON MESA/SOUTHERN COLORADO FRONT RANGE AND SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible, mainly during late afternoon to mid-evening, across parts of the south-central High Plains. The most likely corridor is from the southern Colorado Front Range/Raton Mesa into the western Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles, where large hail, severe gusts, and a brief tornado are possible. ...Front Range/Raton Mesa and south-central High Plains... A prominent upper trough will continue to pivot over the northern High Plains with a base-embedded shortwave trough/speed max spreading southeastward over Colorado toward the south-central High Plains by tonight. A related front will continue to settle south-southeastward with moist low-level upslope flow in its wake across southeast Colorado/Raton Mesa vicinity and the nearby south-central High Plains. Buoyancy will be adequate for some supercells as flow aloft strengthens and low-level winds take on more of an easterly component. Bouts of large hail can be expected, with severe-caliber winds also possible, particularly with the southernmost development toward the Panhandles. A brief/low-end tornado risk may also exist near the boundary and within the immediate post-frontal environment. ...South-central/eastern Kansas to Iowa/Missouri... MCV/modest-strength cyclonic flow aloft and zones of moderate destabilization to the east of the residual early day convection and cloud debris seems likely to influence a redevelopment and intensification of convection this afternoon. Even with some MCV-related flow enhancement, deep-layer shear will remain weak overall, but some episodic severe storms could occur with locally damaging winds and some hail. ...Southern Louisiana... As a cumulus field continues to develop/expand late this morning per visible satellite imagery, scattered thunderstorm development is likely this afternoon. As the boundary layer warms and destabilizes, thermodynamic profiles will become favorable for the possibility of some localized downbursts. ...Southern Minnesota/northern Wisconsin... A few strong storms and perhaps a locally severe storm or two could occur this afternoon into evening as the upper trough interfaces with the front and moderately unstable environment, especially with eastward extent away from residual early day cloud cover/scattered precipitation. However, very weak deep tropospheric winds should keep any pulse-type severe potential rather marginal/localized overall. ..Guyer/Thornton.. 09/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE RATON MESA/SOUTHERN COLORADO FRONT RANGE AND SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible, mainly during late afternoon to mid-evening, across parts of the south-central High Plains. The most likely corridor is from the southern Colorado Front Range/Raton Mesa into the western Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles, where large hail, severe gusts, and a brief tornado are possible. ...Front Range/Raton Mesa and south-central High Plains... A prominent upper trough will continue to pivot over the northern High Plains with a base-embedded shortwave trough/speed max spreading southeastward over Colorado toward the south-central High Plains by tonight. A related front will continue to settle south-southeastward with moist low-level upslope flow in its wake across southeast Colorado/Raton Mesa vicinity and the nearby south-central High Plains. Buoyancy will be adequate for some supercells as flow aloft strengthens and low-level winds take on more of an easterly component. Bouts of large hail can be expected, with severe-caliber winds also possible, particularly with the southernmost development toward the Panhandles. A brief/low-end tornado risk may also exist near the boundary and within the immediate post-frontal environment. ...South-central/eastern Kansas to Iowa/Missouri... MCV/modest-strength cyclonic flow aloft and zones of moderate destabilization to the east of the residual early day convection and cloud debris seems likely to influence a redevelopment and intensification of convection this afternoon. Even with some MCV-related flow enhancement, deep-layer shear will remain weak overall, but some episodic severe storms could occur with locally damaging winds and some hail. ...Southern Louisiana... As a cumulus field continues to develop/expand late this morning per visible satellite imagery, scattered thunderstorm development is likely this afternoon. As the boundary layer warms and destabilizes, thermodynamic profiles will become favorable for the possibility of some localized downbursts. ...Southern Minnesota/northern Wisconsin... A few strong storms and perhaps a locally severe storm or two could occur this afternoon into evening as the upper trough interfaces with the front and moderately unstable environment, especially with eastward extent away from residual early day cloud cover/scattered precipitation. However, very weak deep tropospheric winds should keep any pulse-type severe potential rather marginal/localized overall. ..Guyer/Thornton.. 09/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE RATON MESA/SOUTHERN COLORADO FRONT RANGE AND SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible, mainly during late afternoon to mid-evening, across parts of the south-central High Plains. The most likely corridor is from the southern Colorado Front Range/Raton Mesa into the western Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles, where large hail, severe gusts, and a brief tornado are possible. ...Front Range/Raton Mesa and south-central High Plains... A prominent upper trough will continue to pivot over the northern High Plains with a base-embedded shortwave trough/speed max spreading southeastward over Colorado toward the south-central High Plains by tonight. A related front will continue to settle south-southeastward with moist low-level upslope flow in its wake across southeast Colorado/Raton Mesa vicinity and the nearby south-central High Plains. Buoyancy will be adequate for some supercells as flow aloft strengthens and low-level winds take on more of an easterly component. Bouts of large hail can be expected, with severe-caliber winds also possible, particularly with the southernmost development toward the Panhandles. A brief/low-end tornado risk may also exist near the boundary and within the immediate post-frontal environment. ...South-central/eastern Kansas to Iowa/Missouri... MCV/modest-strength cyclonic flow aloft and zones of moderate destabilization to the east of the residual early day convection and cloud debris seems likely to influence a redevelopment and intensification of convection this afternoon. Even with some MCV-related flow enhancement, deep-layer shear will remain weak overall, but some episodic severe storms could occur with locally damaging winds and some hail. ...Southern Louisiana... As a cumulus field continues to develop/expand late this morning per visible satellite imagery, scattered thunderstorm development is likely this afternoon. As the boundary layer warms and destabilizes, thermodynamic profiles will become favorable for the possibility of some localized downbursts. ...Southern Minnesota/northern Wisconsin... A few strong storms and perhaps a locally severe storm or two could occur this afternoon into evening as the upper trough interfaces with the front and moderately unstable environment, especially with eastward extent away from residual early day cloud cover/scattered precipitation. However, very weak deep tropospheric winds should keep any pulse-type severe potential rather marginal/localized overall. ..Guyer/Thornton.. 09/17/2025 Read more