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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE RATON MESA/SOUTHERN COLORADO FRONT RANGE AND SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible, mainly during late afternoon to mid-evening, across parts of the south-central High Plains. The most likely corridor is from the southern Colorado Front Range/Raton Mesa into the western Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles, where large hail, severe gusts, and a brief tornado are possible. ...Front Range/Raton Mesa and south-central High Plains... A prominent upper trough will continue to pivot over the northern High Plains with a base-embedded shortwave trough/speed max spreading southeastward over Colorado toward the south-central High Plains by tonight. A related front will continue to settle south-southeastward with moist low-level upslope flow in its wake across southeast Colorado/Raton Mesa vicinity and the nearby south-central High Plains. Buoyancy will be adequate for some supercells as flow aloft strengthens and low-level winds take on more of an easterly component. Bouts of large hail can be expected, with severe-caliber winds also possible, particularly with the southernmost development toward the Panhandles. A brief/low-end tornado risk may also exist near the boundary and within the immediate post-frontal environment. ...South-central/eastern Kansas to Iowa/Missouri... MCV/modest-strength cyclonic flow aloft and zones of moderate destabilization to the east of the residual early day convection and cloud debris seems likely to influence a redevelopment and intensification of convection this afternoon. Even with some MCV-related flow enhancement, deep-layer shear will remain weak overall, but some episodic severe storms could occur with locally damaging winds and some hail. ...Southern Louisiana... As a cumulus field continues to develop/expand late this morning per visible satellite imagery, scattered thunderstorm development is likely this afternoon. As the boundary layer warms and destabilizes, thermodynamic profiles will become favorable for the possibility of some localized downbursts. ...Southern Minnesota/northern Wisconsin... A few strong storms and perhaps a locally severe storm or two could occur this afternoon into evening as the upper trough interfaces with the front and moderately unstable environment, especially with eastward extent away from residual early day cloud cover/scattered precipitation. However, very weak deep tropospheric winds should keep any pulse-type severe potential rather marginal/localized overall. ..Guyer/Thornton.. 09/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE RATON MESA/SOUTHERN COLORADO FRONT RANGE AND SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible, mainly during late afternoon to mid-evening, across parts of the south-central High Plains. The most likely corridor is from the southern Colorado Front Range/Raton Mesa into the western Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles, where large hail, severe gusts, and a brief tornado are possible. ...Front Range/Raton Mesa and south-central High Plains... A prominent upper trough will continue to pivot over the northern High Plains with a base-embedded shortwave trough/speed max spreading southeastward over Colorado toward the south-central High Plains by tonight. A related front will continue to settle south-southeastward with moist low-level upslope flow in its wake across southeast Colorado/Raton Mesa vicinity and the nearby south-central High Plains. Buoyancy will be adequate for some supercells as flow aloft strengthens and low-level winds take on more of an easterly component. Bouts of large hail can be expected, with severe-caliber winds also possible, particularly with the southernmost development toward the Panhandles. A brief/low-end tornado risk may also exist near the boundary and within the immediate post-frontal environment. ...South-central/eastern Kansas to Iowa/Missouri... MCV/modest-strength cyclonic flow aloft and zones of moderate destabilization to the east of the residual early day convection and cloud debris seems likely to influence a redevelopment and intensification of convection this afternoon. Even with some MCV-related flow enhancement, deep-layer shear will remain weak overall, but some episodic severe storms could occur with locally damaging winds and some hail. ...Southern Louisiana... As a cumulus field continues to develop/expand late this morning per visible satellite imagery, scattered thunderstorm development is likely this afternoon. As the boundary layer warms and destabilizes, thermodynamic profiles will become favorable for the possibility of some localized downbursts. ...Southern Minnesota/northern Wisconsin... A few strong storms and perhaps a locally severe storm or two could occur this afternoon into evening as the upper trough interfaces with the front and moderately unstable environment, especially with eastward extent away from residual early day cloud cover/scattered precipitation. However, very weak deep tropospheric winds should keep any pulse-type severe potential rather marginal/localized overall. ..Guyer/Thornton.. 09/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE RATON MESA/SOUTHERN COLORADO FRONT RANGE AND SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible, mainly during late afternoon to mid-evening, across parts of the south-central High Plains. The most likely corridor is from the southern Colorado Front Range/Raton Mesa into the western Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles, where large hail, severe gusts, and a brief tornado are possible. ...Front Range/Raton Mesa and south-central High Plains... A prominent upper trough will continue to pivot over the northern High Plains with a base-embedded shortwave trough/speed max spreading southeastward over Colorado toward the south-central High Plains by tonight. A related front will continue to settle south-southeastward with moist low-level upslope flow in its wake across southeast Colorado/Raton Mesa vicinity and the nearby south-central High Plains. Buoyancy will be adequate for some supercells as flow aloft strengthens and low-level winds take on more of an easterly component. Bouts of large hail can be expected, with severe-caliber winds also possible, particularly with the southernmost development toward the Panhandles. A brief/low-end tornado risk may also exist near the boundary and within the immediate post-frontal environment. ...South-central/eastern Kansas to Iowa/Missouri... MCV/modest-strength cyclonic flow aloft and zones of moderate destabilization to the east of the residual early day convection and cloud debris seems likely to influence a redevelopment and intensification of convection this afternoon. Even with some MCV-related flow enhancement, deep-layer shear will remain weak overall, but some episodic severe storms could occur with locally damaging winds and some hail. ...Southern Louisiana... As a cumulus field continues to develop/expand late this morning per visible satellite imagery, scattered thunderstorm development is likely this afternoon. As the boundary layer warms and destabilizes, thermodynamic profiles will become favorable for the possibility of some localized downbursts. ...Southern Minnesota/northern Wisconsin... A few strong storms and perhaps a locally severe storm or two could occur this afternoon into evening as the upper trough interfaces with the front and moderately unstable environment, especially with eastward extent away from residual early day cloud cover/scattered precipitation. However, very weak deep tropospheric winds should keep any pulse-type severe potential rather marginal/localized overall. ..Guyer/Thornton.. 09/17/2025 Read more

Low levels on the Lower Mississippi River jeopardize the movement of commodities on the river. The Ohio River was also critically low in some areas. Brownfield Ag News (Jefferson City, Mo.), Sep 17, 2025

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0754 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025 Valid 171300Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST CO...NORTHEAST NM...AND THE WESTERN TX/OK PANHANDLES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible, mainly during late afternoon to mid-evening, across parts of the south-central High and Great Plains. The most likely corridor is from the Raton Mesa into the western Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles, where large hail, severe gusts, and a brief tornado are possible. ...Synopsis... Early morning satellite imagery shows a broad cyclone centered over WY and another more defined cyclone over the Mid-Atlantic. Modest ridging exists between these cyclones from the southern Plains through the Mid MS Valley and into the Upper Great Lakes. The eastern cyclone is forecast to devolve into an open wave throughout the day while gradually lifting northeastward. Several shortwave troughs are forecast to rotate around the western cyclone while it shifts eastward into more of NE/SD and deepens slightly. Recent surface analysis reveals a weak front extending from a low over the northern TX Panhandle north-northeastward to another weak low over northwest KS and then more northeastward across central NE into southwest MN. Portion of this front across KS and NE is forecast to slowly push eastward/southeastward today while consolidation into a more define and deeper surface low occurs across northeast NE and southeast SD. ...South-central High Plains... The shortwave trough currently rotating southward through western WY is forecast to continue south/south-southeastward today. Lift preceding this shortwave will contribute to thunderstorm development within the buoyant post-frontal airmass across southeast CO and northeast NM (in the Raton Mesa vicinity) during the late afternoon/early evening. Slightly stronger mid-level flow will accompany this shortwave as well, resulting in moderate deep-layer vertical shear. Buoyancy will be modest, with the stronger buoyancy anticipated ahead of the cold front, but the combination of buoyancy and shear over the region should still be sufficient for organized updrafts capable of large hail and damaging gusts. There is some potential for this activity to interact with the western portion of the cold front that is expected to arc back west/northwest across the TX/OK Panhandles into far northeast NM/southeast CO. If this occurs, the easterly surface winds and increased vorticity along the boundary could result in a localized area of low-probability tornado risk. ...Southeast NE...Central/Eastern KS...Northwest OK...Eastern TX Panhandle... Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing along and ahead of the cold front extending across the region. At least one MCV is noted within this precipitation over far north-central KS. Cloud cover associated with this precipitation will likely delay heating across much of KS and NE, leading to some uncertainty whether the airmass will destabilize ahead of the cold front later this afternoon. Destabilization looks more probable from central KS across the eastern TX Panhandle and northeast OK. This entire region will be on the eastern periphery of the stronger mid-level flow, with the modest shear supportive of some strong to severe storms capable of damaging gusts and isolated hail in areas where the airmass destabilizes. ...IA and southern MN... Forcing for ascent is expected to spread across the region from the southwest as a shortwave trough rotates through the broader troughing over the northern/central Plains. Like areas farther southwest, cloud cover and limited diurnal heating results in uncertainty regarding airmass destabilization. Even so, some guidance shows strong heating, deep mixing, and destabilization ahead of the approaching shortwave. This could result in some high-based storm capable of damaging downbursts. However, the overall conditionality of this scenario precludes introducing any severe probabilities with this outlook. ..Mosier/Bentley.. 09/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0754 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025 Valid 171300Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST CO...NORTHEAST NM...AND THE WESTERN TX/OK PANHANDLES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible, mainly during late afternoon to mid-evening, across parts of the south-central High and Great Plains. The most likely corridor is from the Raton Mesa into the western Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles, where large hail, severe gusts, and a brief tornado are possible. ...Synopsis... Early morning satellite imagery shows a broad cyclone centered over WY and another more defined cyclone over the Mid-Atlantic. Modest ridging exists between these cyclones from the southern Plains through the Mid MS Valley and into the Upper Great Lakes. The eastern cyclone is forecast to devolve into an open wave throughout the day while gradually lifting northeastward. Several shortwave troughs are forecast to rotate around the western cyclone while it shifts eastward into more of NE/SD and deepens slightly. Recent surface analysis reveals a weak front extending from a low over the northern TX Panhandle north-northeastward to another weak low over northwest KS and then more northeastward across central NE into southwest MN. Portion of this front across KS and NE is forecast to slowly push eastward/southeastward today while consolidation into a more define and deeper surface low occurs across northeast NE and southeast SD. ...South-central High Plains... The shortwave trough currently rotating southward through western WY is forecast to continue south/south-southeastward today. Lift preceding this shortwave will contribute to thunderstorm development within the buoyant post-frontal airmass across southeast CO and northeast NM (in the Raton Mesa vicinity) during the late afternoon/early evening. Slightly stronger mid-level flow will accompany this shortwave as well, resulting in moderate deep-layer vertical shear. Buoyancy will be modest, with the stronger buoyancy anticipated ahead of the cold front, but the combination of buoyancy and shear over the region should still be sufficient for organized updrafts capable of large hail and damaging gusts. There is some potential for this activity to interact with the western portion of the cold front that is expected to arc back west/northwest across the TX/OK Panhandles into far northeast NM/southeast CO. If this occurs, the easterly surface winds and increased vorticity along the boundary could result in a localized area of low-probability tornado risk. ...Southeast NE...Central/Eastern KS...Northwest OK...Eastern TX Panhandle... Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing along and ahead of the cold front extending across the region. At least one MCV is noted within this precipitation over far north-central KS. Cloud cover associated with this precipitation will likely delay heating across much of KS and NE, leading to some uncertainty whether the airmass will destabilize ahead of the cold front later this afternoon. Destabilization looks more probable from central KS across the eastern TX Panhandle and northeast OK. This entire region will be on the eastern periphery of the stronger mid-level flow, with the modest shear supportive of some strong to severe storms capable of damaging gusts and isolated hail in areas where the airmass destabilizes. ...IA and southern MN... Forcing for ascent is expected to spread across the region from the southwest as a shortwave trough rotates through the broader troughing over the northern/central Plains. Like areas farther southwest, cloud cover and limited diurnal heating results in uncertainty regarding airmass destabilization. Even so, some guidance shows strong heating, deep mixing, and destabilization ahead of the approaching shortwave. This could result in some high-based storm capable of damaging downbursts. However, the overall conditionality of this scenario precludes introducing any severe probabilities with this outlook. ..Mosier/Bentley.. 09/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0754 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025 Valid 171300Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST CO...NORTHEAST NM...AND THE WESTERN TX/OK PANHANDLES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible, mainly during late afternoon to mid-evening, across parts of the south-central High and Great Plains. The most likely corridor is from the Raton Mesa into the western Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles, where large hail, severe gusts, and a brief tornado are possible. ...Synopsis... Early morning satellite imagery shows a broad cyclone centered over WY and another more defined cyclone over the Mid-Atlantic. Modest ridging exists between these cyclones from the southern Plains through the Mid MS Valley and into the Upper Great Lakes. The eastern cyclone is forecast to devolve into an open wave throughout the day while gradually lifting northeastward. Several shortwave troughs are forecast to rotate around the western cyclone while it shifts eastward into more of NE/SD and deepens slightly. Recent surface analysis reveals a weak front extending from a low over the northern TX Panhandle north-northeastward to another weak low over northwest KS and then more northeastward across central NE into southwest MN. Portion of this front across KS and NE is forecast to slowly push eastward/southeastward today while consolidation into a more define and deeper surface low occurs across northeast NE and southeast SD. ...South-central High Plains... The shortwave trough currently rotating southward through western WY is forecast to continue south/south-southeastward today. Lift preceding this shortwave will contribute to thunderstorm development within the buoyant post-frontal airmass across southeast CO and northeast NM (in the Raton Mesa vicinity) during the late afternoon/early evening. Slightly stronger mid-level flow will accompany this shortwave as well, resulting in moderate deep-layer vertical shear. Buoyancy will be modest, with the stronger buoyancy anticipated ahead of the cold front, but the combination of buoyancy and shear over the region should still be sufficient for organized updrafts capable of large hail and damaging gusts. There is some potential for this activity to interact with the western portion of the cold front that is expected to arc back west/northwest across the TX/OK Panhandles into far northeast NM/southeast CO. If this occurs, the easterly surface winds and increased vorticity along the boundary could result in a localized area of low-probability tornado risk. ...Southeast NE...Central/Eastern KS...Northwest OK...Eastern TX Panhandle... Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing along and ahead of the cold front extending across the region. At least one MCV is noted within this precipitation over far north-central KS. Cloud cover associated with this precipitation will likely delay heating across much of KS and NE, leading to some uncertainty whether the airmass will destabilize ahead of the cold front later this afternoon. Destabilization looks more probable from central KS across the eastern TX Panhandle and northeast OK. This entire region will be on the eastern periphery of the stronger mid-level flow, with the modest shear supportive of some strong to severe storms capable of damaging gusts and isolated hail in areas where the airmass destabilizes. ...IA and southern MN... Forcing for ascent is expected to spread across the region from the southwest as a shortwave trough rotates through the broader troughing over the northern/central Plains. Like areas farther southwest, cloud cover and limited diurnal heating results in uncertainty regarding airmass destabilization. Even so, some guidance shows strong heating, deep mixing, and destabilization ahead of the approaching shortwave. This could result in some high-based storm capable of damaging downbursts. However, the overall conditionality of this scenario precludes introducing any severe probabilities with this outlook. ..Mosier/Bentley.. 09/17/2025 Read more

Woodcreek water users were contacted by Aqua Texas, asking them to observe stage 4 water conservation measures. The Wimberley View (Texas), Sep 17, 2025

Port Townsend residents were asked to be mindful of their water use after an unusually dry summer and low water levels at the Lords Lake Reservoir. The Port Townsend Paper Mill, which uses a significant portion of the water supply, implemented conservation measures to reduce consumption. Port Townsend Leader (Wash.), Sep 17, 2025

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 171129
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Wed Sep 17 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Off the Coast of Southwestern Mexico (EP96):
A broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles off the
coast of southwestern Mexico is producing a large area of showers
and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
gradual development of this broad system, and a tropical depression
is likely to form in a couple of days while it moves
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the central portion of the
east Pacific.
*Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
*Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025 Valid 201200Z - 251200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance generally indicates low-amplitude/weak upper troughing will persist across portions of the central U.S. through the weekend. By early next week, large spread exists between the control members of the GFS and ECMWF and how these models handle the evolution of a deepening upper trough moving out of the Rockies and into the Plains/Midwest around Days 6-8/Mon-Wed. Ensemble mean 500 mb forecasts are in better alignment, indicating a stronger large-scale trough will emerge over the Plains and MS Valley late in the period, bringing a stronger autumn cold front south/southeast across much of the central U.S. This could bring some increasing severe potential to portions of the Plains MS Valley during the second half of the forecast period, but given aforementioned uncertainty/large spread, it is unclear which days/locations may experience any increasing risk. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025 Valid 201200Z - 251200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance generally indicates low-amplitude/weak upper troughing will persist across portions of the central U.S. through the weekend. By early next week, large spread exists between the control members of the GFS and ECMWF and how these models handle the evolution of a deepening upper trough moving out of the Rockies and into the Plains/Midwest around Days 6-8/Mon-Wed. Ensemble mean 500 mb forecasts are in better alignment, indicating a stronger large-scale trough will emerge over the Plains and MS Valley late in the period, bringing a stronger autumn cold front south/southeast across much of the central U.S. This could bring some increasing severe potential to portions of the Plains MS Valley during the second half of the forecast period, but given aforementioned uncertainty/large spread, it is unclear which days/locations may experience any increasing risk. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025 Valid 201200Z - 251200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance generally indicates low-amplitude/weak upper troughing will persist across portions of the central U.S. through the weekend. By early next week, large spread exists between the control members of the GFS and ECMWF and how these models handle the evolution of a deepening upper trough moving out of the Rockies and into the Plains/Midwest around Days 6-8/Mon-Wed. Ensemble mean 500 mb forecasts are in better alignment, indicating a stronger large-scale trough will emerge over the Plains and MS Valley late in the period, bringing a stronger autumn cold front south/southeast across much of the central U.S. This could bring some increasing severe potential to portions of the Plains MS Valley during the second half of the forecast period, but given aforementioned uncertainty/large spread, it is unclear which days/locations may experience any increasing risk. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025 Valid 201200Z - 251200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance generally indicates low-amplitude/weak upper troughing will persist across portions of the central U.S. through the weekend. By early next week, large spread exists between the control members of the GFS and ECMWF and how these models handle the evolution of a deepening upper trough moving out of the Rockies and into the Plains/Midwest around Days 6-8/Mon-Wed. Ensemble mean 500 mb forecasts are in better alignment, indicating a stronger large-scale trough will emerge over the Plains and MS Valley late in the period, bringing a stronger autumn cold front south/southeast across much of the central U.S. This could bring some increasing severe potential to portions of the Plains MS Valley during the second half of the forecast period, but given aforementioned uncertainty/large spread, it is unclear which days/locations may experience any increasing risk. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will slowly progress eastward across the Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley while another diffuse upper trough lingers along the West Coast, and upper ridging persists over the Ohio Valley tomorrow (Thursday). Another day of quiescent fire weather conditions is in store for much of the U.S. west of the Rockies. However, a dry low-level airmass will continue to overspread the Ohio Valley, where fuels continue to dry and appreciable rainfall remains absent. As on Day 1, the surface wind field will be too weak to support rapid wildfire-spread potential. However, the aforementioned dry airmass over dry fuels suggests that localized fire weather conditions may be a concern with the most vulnerable fuel beds. ..Squitieri.. 09/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will slowly progress eastward across the Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley while another diffuse upper trough lingers along the West Coast, and upper ridging persists over the Ohio Valley tomorrow (Thursday). Another day of quiescent fire weather conditions is in store for much of the U.S. west of the Rockies. However, a dry low-level airmass will continue to overspread the Ohio Valley, where fuels continue to dry and appreciable rainfall remains absent. As on Day 1, the surface wind field will be too weak to support rapid wildfire-spread potential. However, the aforementioned dry airmass over dry fuels suggests that localized fire weather conditions may be a concern with the most vulnerable fuel beds. ..Squitieri.. 09/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will slowly progress eastward across the Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley while another diffuse upper trough lingers along the West Coast, and upper ridging persists over the Ohio Valley tomorrow (Thursday). Another day of quiescent fire weather conditions is in store for much of the U.S. west of the Rockies. However, a dry low-level airmass will continue to overspread the Ohio Valley, where fuels continue to dry and appreciable rainfall remains absent. As on Day 1, the surface wind field will be too weak to support rapid wildfire-spread potential. However, the aforementioned dry airmass over dry fuels suggests that localized fire weather conditions may be a concern with the most vulnerable fuel beds. ..Squitieri.. 09/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will slowly progress eastward across the Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley while another diffuse upper trough lingers along the West Coast, and upper ridging persists over the Ohio Valley tomorrow (Thursday). Another day of quiescent fire weather conditions is in store for much of the U.S. west of the Rockies. However, a dry low-level airmass will continue to overspread the Ohio Valley, where fuels continue to dry and appreciable rainfall remains absent. As on Day 1, the surface wind field will be too weak to support rapid wildfire-spread potential. However, the aforementioned dry airmass over dry fuels suggests that localized fire weather conditions may be a concern with the most vulnerable fuel beds. ..Squitieri.. 09/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will meander over the Rockies while another upper trough impinges on the West Coast and upper ridging persists over the Mississippi Valley today. Surface high pressure will become established over the Rockies, promoting relatively quiescent fire weather conditions over the Interior West. Meanwhile, a dry low-level airmass will continue to linger over the Ohio Valley, where fuels have been gradually drying. Surface winds appear too weak to support widespread, significant wildfire growth potential, though localized wildfire conditions are a concern where stronger gusts may overspread dry fuel beds. ..Squitieri.. 09/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will meander over the Rockies while another upper trough impinges on the West Coast and upper ridging persists over the Mississippi Valley today. Surface high pressure will become established over the Rockies, promoting relatively quiescent fire weather conditions over the Interior West. Meanwhile, a dry low-level airmass will continue to linger over the Ohio Valley, where fuels have been gradually drying. Surface winds appear too weak to support widespread, significant wildfire growth potential, though localized wildfire conditions are a concern where stronger gusts may overspread dry fuel beds. ..Squitieri.. 09/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more