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WW 0612 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0612 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0612 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0612 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0612 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0612 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0612 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0612 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 612 SEVERE TSTM CO KS NE 162005Z - 170300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 612 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 305 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northeast Colorado Northwest Kansas Western and Central Nebraska * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 305 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorms will continue to develop this afternoon, initially and particularly across west-central/southwest Nebraska and northwest Kansas. Additional and potentially a secondary round of development will occur later this afternoon as stronger upper-level support arrives from the post and the post-frontal low-level upslope environment evolves. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles east and west of a line from 10 miles northwest of Valentine NE to 65 miles south of Imperial NE. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 22025. ...Guyer Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon into early evening across a portion of the central Great Plains. Large hail, severe gusts, and a tornado or two may occur. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments needed to reflect recent convective trends. Latest GOES imagery shows a steady uptick in convection across the central High Plains/Plains as lingering inhibition is removed via daytime heating. Elevated convection across western NE has also shown signs of intensification, which should continue as the cluster spreads east/southeast into an unstable air mass developing across central NE (see MCD #2085 for additional details). Additional thunderstorm clustering is likely through the evening hours as convective coverage increases across southwest NE/northwest KS and northeast CO. Elsewhere, the previous forecast remains on track. Consideration was given for removing risk probabilities across northeast MN, but temperatures are currently several degrees warmer than anticipated by recent guidance. With shallow cumulus developing upstream along an advancing front, a conditional severe threat may persist into early evening. See MCD #2084 and the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 09/16/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1138 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025/ ...Eastern Colorado/Wyoming and Central Plains... A semi-closed upper low will continue to spread southeastward today over Wyoming and nearby parts of southern Montana and northern Colorado, as a cold front similarly settles southeastward across the Front Range/central High Plains, while a weak surface wave develops northeastward along the front. Increasing forcing for ascent/strengthening flow aloft related to a lead portion of the upper trough will influence steadily increasing and organized thunderstorm development into the afternoon, especially within the immediate post-frontal environment. Buoyancy will be maximized from far northeast Colorado into central Nebraska where low to mid 60s F dewpoints beneath steep mid-level lapse rates will support MLCAPE around 2000-2500 J/kg. The resulting combination of lift, instability, and moderate shear (generally around 35 kt of effective bulk shear) will support strong to severe storms. Large hail appears to be the most prominent hazard (especially western Nebraska), but some clustering could lead to a few strong gusts as well. Presence of the surface low/boundary and backed low-level flow may result in a low-probability tornado risk as well. ...Iowa/northern Missouri/eastern Nebraska... Some stronger/locally severe pulse-type storms may occur late this afternoon through around sunset within the strong instability/weak deep-layer flow regime. ...Northern Minnesota/Lake Superior... Severe-weather potential should be limited across this region, but will retain low-severe probabilities given somewhat stronger deep-layer shear and a low or conditional-type potential near the advancing front. ...Virginia Tidewater/far northeast North Carolina... Surface reflection of a semi-stacked cyclone is just off the far northeast corner of North Carolina at midday. This low should continue to drift north-northwest today and tonight, while likely gradually weakening, although its northern peripheral strong low-level east/northeasterly winds (reference Wakefield WSR-88D VWP) will likely persist through the day. Dry northerly continental trajectories inland will relegate meaningful (albeit limited) buoyancy to the immediate coasts of the Virginia Tidewater/Maryland shore, and otherwise offshore. This will similarly relegate any transient supercell and low-end tornado/wind risk to the immediate coast, but more likely just offshore. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon into early evening across a portion of the central Great Plains. Large hail, severe gusts, and a tornado or two may occur. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments needed to reflect recent convective trends. Latest GOES imagery shows a steady uptick in convection across the central High Plains/Plains as lingering inhibition is removed via daytime heating. Elevated convection across western NE has also shown signs of intensification, which should continue as the cluster spreads east/southeast into an unstable air mass developing across central NE (see MCD #2085 for additional details). Additional thunderstorm clustering is likely through the evening hours as convective coverage increases across southwest NE/northwest KS and northeast CO. Elsewhere, the previous forecast remains on track. Consideration was given for removing risk probabilities across northeast MN, but temperatures are currently several degrees warmer than anticipated by recent guidance. With shallow cumulus developing upstream along an advancing front, a conditional severe threat may persist into early evening. See MCD #2084 and the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 09/16/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1138 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025/ ...Eastern Colorado/Wyoming and Central Plains... A semi-closed upper low will continue to spread southeastward today over Wyoming and nearby parts of southern Montana and northern Colorado, as a cold front similarly settles southeastward across the Front Range/central High Plains, while a weak surface wave develops northeastward along the front. Increasing forcing for ascent/strengthening flow aloft related to a lead portion of the upper trough will influence steadily increasing and organized thunderstorm development into the afternoon, especially within the immediate post-frontal environment. Buoyancy will be maximized from far northeast Colorado into central Nebraska where low to mid 60s F dewpoints beneath steep mid-level lapse rates will support MLCAPE around 2000-2500 J/kg. The resulting combination of lift, instability, and moderate shear (generally around 35 kt of effective bulk shear) will support strong to severe storms. Large hail appears to be the most prominent hazard (especially western Nebraska), but some clustering could lead to a few strong gusts as well. Presence of the surface low/boundary and backed low-level flow may result in a low-probability tornado risk as well. ...Iowa/northern Missouri/eastern Nebraska... Some stronger/locally severe pulse-type storms may occur late this afternoon through around sunset within the strong instability/weak deep-layer flow regime. ...Northern Minnesota/Lake Superior... Severe-weather potential should be limited across this region, but will retain low-severe probabilities given somewhat stronger deep-layer shear and a low or conditional-type potential near the advancing front. ...Virginia Tidewater/far northeast North Carolina... Surface reflection of a semi-stacked cyclone is just off the far northeast corner of North Carolina at midday. This low should continue to drift north-northwest today and tonight, while likely gradually weakening, although its northern peripheral strong low-level east/northeasterly winds (reference Wakefield WSR-88D VWP) will likely persist through the day. Dry northerly continental trajectories inland will relegate meaningful (albeit limited) buoyancy to the immediate coasts of the Virginia Tidewater/Maryland shore, and otherwise offshore. This will similarly relegate any transient supercell and low-end tornado/wind risk to the immediate coast, but more likely just offshore. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon into early evening across a portion of the central Great Plains. Large hail, severe gusts, and a tornado or two may occur. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments needed to reflect recent convective trends. Latest GOES imagery shows a steady uptick in convection across the central High Plains/Plains as lingering inhibition is removed via daytime heating. Elevated convection across western NE has also shown signs of intensification, which should continue as the cluster spreads east/southeast into an unstable air mass developing across central NE (see MCD #2085 for additional details). Additional thunderstorm clustering is likely through the evening hours as convective coverage increases across southwest NE/northwest KS and northeast CO. Elsewhere, the previous forecast remains on track. Consideration was given for removing risk probabilities across northeast MN, but temperatures are currently several degrees warmer than anticipated by recent guidance. With shallow cumulus developing upstream along an advancing front, a conditional severe threat may persist into early evening. See MCD #2084 and the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 09/16/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1138 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025/ ...Eastern Colorado/Wyoming and Central Plains... A semi-closed upper low will continue to spread southeastward today over Wyoming and nearby parts of southern Montana and northern Colorado, as a cold front similarly settles southeastward across the Front Range/central High Plains, while a weak surface wave develops northeastward along the front. Increasing forcing for ascent/strengthening flow aloft related to a lead portion of the upper trough will influence steadily increasing and organized thunderstorm development into the afternoon, especially within the immediate post-frontal environment. Buoyancy will be maximized from far northeast Colorado into central Nebraska where low to mid 60s F dewpoints beneath steep mid-level lapse rates will support MLCAPE around 2000-2500 J/kg. The resulting combination of lift, instability, and moderate shear (generally around 35 kt of effective bulk shear) will support strong to severe storms. Large hail appears to be the most prominent hazard (especially western Nebraska), but some clustering could lead to a few strong gusts as well. Presence of the surface low/boundary and backed low-level flow may result in a low-probability tornado risk as well. ...Iowa/northern Missouri/eastern Nebraska... Some stronger/locally severe pulse-type storms may occur late this afternoon through around sunset within the strong instability/weak deep-layer flow regime. ...Northern Minnesota/Lake Superior... Severe-weather potential should be limited across this region, but will retain low-severe probabilities given somewhat stronger deep-layer shear and a low or conditional-type potential near the advancing front. ...Virginia Tidewater/far northeast North Carolina... Surface reflection of a semi-stacked cyclone is just off the far northeast corner of North Carolina at midday. This low should continue to drift north-northwest today and tonight, while likely gradually weakening, although its northern peripheral strong low-level east/northeasterly winds (reference Wakefield WSR-88D VWP) will likely persist through the day. Dry northerly continental trajectories inland will relegate meaningful (albeit limited) buoyancy to the immediate coasts of the Virginia Tidewater/Maryland shore, and otherwise offshore. This will similarly relegate any transient supercell and low-end tornado/wind risk to the immediate coast, but more likely just offshore. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon into early evening across a portion of the central Great Plains. Large hail, severe gusts, and a tornado or two may occur. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments needed to reflect recent convective trends. Latest GOES imagery shows a steady uptick in convection across the central High Plains/Plains as lingering inhibition is removed via daytime heating. Elevated convection across western NE has also shown signs of intensification, which should continue as the cluster spreads east/southeast into an unstable air mass developing across central NE (see MCD #2085 for additional details). Additional thunderstorm clustering is likely through the evening hours as convective coverage increases across southwest NE/northwest KS and northeast CO. Elsewhere, the previous forecast remains on track. Consideration was given for removing risk probabilities across northeast MN, but temperatures are currently several degrees warmer than anticipated by recent guidance. With shallow cumulus developing upstream along an advancing front, a conditional severe threat may persist into early evening. See MCD #2084 and the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 09/16/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1138 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025/ ...Eastern Colorado/Wyoming and Central Plains... A semi-closed upper low will continue to spread southeastward today over Wyoming and nearby parts of southern Montana and northern Colorado, as a cold front similarly settles southeastward across the Front Range/central High Plains, while a weak surface wave develops northeastward along the front. Increasing forcing for ascent/strengthening flow aloft related to a lead portion of the upper trough will influence steadily increasing and organized thunderstorm development into the afternoon, especially within the immediate post-frontal environment. Buoyancy will be maximized from far northeast Colorado into central Nebraska where low to mid 60s F dewpoints beneath steep mid-level lapse rates will support MLCAPE around 2000-2500 J/kg. The resulting combination of lift, instability, and moderate shear (generally around 35 kt of effective bulk shear) will support strong to severe storms. Large hail appears to be the most prominent hazard (especially western Nebraska), but some clustering could lead to a few strong gusts as well. Presence of the surface low/boundary and backed low-level flow may result in a low-probability tornado risk as well. ...Iowa/northern Missouri/eastern Nebraska... Some stronger/locally severe pulse-type storms may occur late this afternoon through around sunset within the strong instability/weak deep-layer flow regime. ...Northern Minnesota/Lake Superior... Severe-weather potential should be limited across this region, but will retain low-severe probabilities given somewhat stronger deep-layer shear and a low or conditional-type potential near the advancing front. ...Virginia Tidewater/far northeast North Carolina... Surface reflection of a semi-stacked cyclone is just off the far northeast corner of North Carolina at midday. This low should continue to drift north-northwest today and tonight, while likely gradually weakening, although its northern peripheral strong low-level east/northeasterly winds (reference Wakefield WSR-88D VWP) will likely persist through the day. Dry northerly continental trajectories inland will relegate meaningful (albeit limited) buoyancy to the immediate coasts of the Virginia Tidewater/Maryland shore, and otherwise offshore. This will similarly relegate any transient supercell and low-end tornado/wind risk to the immediate coast, but more likely just offshore. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon into early evening across a portion of the central Great Plains. Large hail, severe gusts, and a tornado or two may occur. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments needed to reflect recent convective trends. Latest GOES imagery shows a steady uptick in convection across the central High Plains/Plains as lingering inhibition is removed via daytime heating. Elevated convection across western NE has also shown signs of intensification, which should continue as the cluster spreads east/southeast into an unstable air mass developing across central NE (see MCD #2085 for additional details). Additional thunderstorm clustering is likely through the evening hours as convective coverage increases across southwest NE/northwest KS and northeast CO. Elsewhere, the previous forecast remains on track. Consideration was given for removing risk probabilities across northeast MN, but temperatures are currently several degrees warmer than anticipated by recent guidance. With shallow cumulus developing upstream along an advancing front, a conditional severe threat may persist into early evening. See MCD #2084 and the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 09/16/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1138 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025/ ...Eastern Colorado/Wyoming and Central Plains... A semi-closed upper low will continue to spread southeastward today over Wyoming and nearby parts of southern Montana and northern Colorado, as a cold front similarly settles southeastward across the Front Range/central High Plains, while a weak surface wave develops northeastward along the front. Increasing forcing for ascent/strengthening flow aloft related to a lead portion of the upper trough will influence steadily increasing and organized thunderstorm development into the afternoon, especially within the immediate post-frontal environment. Buoyancy will be maximized from far northeast Colorado into central Nebraska where low to mid 60s F dewpoints beneath steep mid-level lapse rates will support MLCAPE around 2000-2500 J/kg. The resulting combination of lift, instability, and moderate shear (generally around 35 kt of effective bulk shear) will support strong to severe storms. Large hail appears to be the most prominent hazard (especially western Nebraska), but some clustering could lead to a few strong gusts as well. Presence of the surface low/boundary and backed low-level flow may result in a low-probability tornado risk as well. ...Iowa/northern Missouri/eastern Nebraska... Some stronger/locally severe pulse-type storms may occur late this afternoon through around sunset within the strong instability/weak deep-layer flow regime. ...Northern Minnesota/Lake Superior... Severe-weather potential should be limited across this region, but will retain low-severe probabilities given somewhat stronger deep-layer shear and a low or conditional-type potential near the advancing front. ...Virginia Tidewater/far northeast North Carolina... Surface reflection of a semi-stacked cyclone is just off the far northeast corner of North Carolina at midday. This low should continue to drift north-northwest today and tonight, while likely gradually weakening, although its northern peripheral strong low-level east/northeasterly winds (reference Wakefield WSR-88D VWP) will likely persist through the day. Dry northerly continental trajectories inland will relegate meaningful (albeit limited) buoyancy to the immediate coasts of the Virginia Tidewater/Maryland shore, and otherwise offshore. This will similarly relegate any transient supercell and low-end tornado/wind risk to the immediate coast, but more likely just offshore. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon into early evening across a portion of the central Great Plains. Large hail, severe gusts, and a tornado or two may occur. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments needed to reflect recent convective trends. Latest GOES imagery shows a steady uptick in convection across the central High Plains/Plains as lingering inhibition is removed via daytime heating. Elevated convection across western NE has also shown signs of intensification, which should continue as the cluster spreads east/southeast into an unstable air mass developing across central NE (see MCD #2085 for additional details). Additional thunderstorm clustering is likely through the evening hours as convective coverage increases across southwest NE/northwest KS and northeast CO. Elsewhere, the previous forecast remains on track. Consideration was given for removing risk probabilities across northeast MN, but temperatures are currently several degrees warmer than anticipated by recent guidance. With shallow cumulus developing upstream along an advancing front, a conditional severe threat may persist into early evening. See MCD #2084 and the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 09/16/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1138 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025/ ...Eastern Colorado/Wyoming and Central Plains... A semi-closed upper low will continue to spread southeastward today over Wyoming and nearby parts of southern Montana and northern Colorado, as a cold front similarly settles southeastward across the Front Range/central High Plains, while a weak surface wave develops northeastward along the front. Increasing forcing for ascent/strengthening flow aloft related to a lead portion of the upper trough will influence steadily increasing and organized thunderstorm development into the afternoon, especially within the immediate post-frontal environment. Buoyancy will be maximized from far northeast Colorado into central Nebraska where low to mid 60s F dewpoints beneath steep mid-level lapse rates will support MLCAPE around 2000-2500 J/kg. The resulting combination of lift, instability, and moderate shear (generally around 35 kt of effective bulk shear) will support strong to severe storms. Large hail appears to be the most prominent hazard (especially western Nebraska), but some clustering could lead to a few strong gusts as well. Presence of the surface low/boundary and backed low-level flow may result in a low-probability tornado risk as well. ...Iowa/northern Missouri/eastern Nebraska... Some stronger/locally severe pulse-type storms may occur late this afternoon through around sunset within the strong instability/weak deep-layer flow regime. ...Northern Minnesota/Lake Superior... Severe-weather potential should be limited across this region, but will retain low-severe probabilities given somewhat stronger deep-layer shear and a low or conditional-type potential near the advancing front. ...Virginia Tidewater/far northeast North Carolina... Surface reflection of a semi-stacked cyclone is just off the far northeast corner of North Carolina at midday. This low should continue to drift north-northwest today and tonight, while likely gradually weakening, although its northern peripheral strong low-level east/northeasterly winds (reference Wakefield WSR-88D VWP) will likely persist through the day. Dry northerly continental trajectories inland will relegate meaningful (albeit limited) buoyancy to the immediate coasts of the Virginia Tidewater/Maryland shore, and otherwise offshore. This will similarly relegate any transient supercell and low-end tornado/wind risk to the immediate coast, but more likely just offshore. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon into early evening across a portion of the central Great Plains. Large hail, severe gusts, and a tornado or two may occur. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments needed to reflect recent convective trends. Latest GOES imagery shows a steady uptick in convection across the central High Plains/Plains as lingering inhibition is removed via daytime heating. Elevated convection across western NE has also shown signs of intensification, which should continue as the cluster spreads east/southeast into an unstable air mass developing across central NE (see MCD #2085 for additional details). Additional thunderstorm clustering is likely through the evening hours as convective coverage increases across southwest NE/northwest KS and northeast CO. Elsewhere, the previous forecast remains on track. Consideration was given for removing risk probabilities across northeast MN, but temperatures are currently several degrees warmer than anticipated by recent guidance. With shallow cumulus developing upstream along an advancing front, a conditional severe threat may persist into early evening. See MCD #2084 and the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 09/16/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1138 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025/ ...Eastern Colorado/Wyoming and Central Plains... A semi-closed upper low will continue to spread southeastward today over Wyoming and nearby parts of southern Montana and northern Colorado, as a cold front similarly settles southeastward across the Front Range/central High Plains, while a weak surface wave develops northeastward along the front. Increasing forcing for ascent/strengthening flow aloft related to a lead portion of the upper trough will influence steadily increasing and organized thunderstorm development into the afternoon, especially within the immediate post-frontal environment. Buoyancy will be maximized from far northeast Colorado into central Nebraska where low to mid 60s F dewpoints beneath steep mid-level lapse rates will support MLCAPE around 2000-2500 J/kg. The resulting combination of lift, instability, and moderate shear (generally around 35 kt of effective bulk shear) will support strong to severe storms. Large hail appears to be the most prominent hazard (especially western Nebraska), but some clustering could lead to a few strong gusts as well. Presence of the surface low/boundary and backed low-level flow may result in a low-probability tornado risk as well. ...Iowa/northern Missouri/eastern Nebraska... Some stronger/locally severe pulse-type storms may occur late this afternoon through around sunset within the strong instability/weak deep-layer flow regime. ...Northern Minnesota/Lake Superior... Severe-weather potential should be limited across this region, but will retain low-severe probabilities given somewhat stronger deep-layer shear and a low or conditional-type potential near the advancing front. ...Virginia Tidewater/far northeast North Carolina... Surface reflection of a semi-stacked cyclone is just off the far northeast corner of North Carolina at midday. This low should continue to drift north-northwest today and tonight, while likely gradually weakening, although its northern peripheral strong low-level east/northeasterly winds (reference Wakefield WSR-88D VWP) will likely persist through the day. Dry northerly continental trajectories inland will relegate meaningful (albeit limited) buoyancy to the immediate coasts of the Virginia Tidewater/Maryland shore, and otherwise offshore. This will similarly relegate any transient supercell and low-end tornado/wind risk to the immediate coast, but more likely just offshore. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon into early evening across a portion of the central Great Plains. Large hail, severe gusts, and a tornado or two may occur. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments needed to reflect recent convective trends. Latest GOES imagery shows a steady uptick in convection across the central High Plains/Plains as lingering inhibition is removed via daytime heating. Elevated convection across western NE has also shown signs of intensification, which should continue as the cluster spreads east/southeast into an unstable air mass developing across central NE (see MCD #2085 for additional details). Additional thunderstorm clustering is likely through the evening hours as convective coverage increases across southwest NE/northwest KS and northeast CO. Elsewhere, the previous forecast remains on track. Consideration was given for removing risk probabilities across northeast MN, but temperatures are currently several degrees warmer than anticipated by recent guidance. With shallow cumulus developing upstream along an advancing front, a conditional severe threat may persist into early evening. See MCD #2084 and the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 09/16/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1138 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025/ ...Eastern Colorado/Wyoming and Central Plains... A semi-closed upper low will continue to spread southeastward today over Wyoming and nearby parts of southern Montana and northern Colorado, as a cold front similarly settles southeastward across the Front Range/central High Plains, while a weak surface wave develops northeastward along the front. Increasing forcing for ascent/strengthening flow aloft related to a lead portion of the upper trough will influence steadily increasing and organized thunderstorm development into the afternoon, especially within the immediate post-frontal environment. Buoyancy will be maximized from far northeast Colorado into central Nebraska where low to mid 60s F dewpoints beneath steep mid-level lapse rates will support MLCAPE around 2000-2500 J/kg. The resulting combination of lift, instability, and moderate shear (generally around 35 kt of effective bulk shear) will support strong to severe storms. Large hail appears to be the most prominent hazard (especially western Nebraska), but some clustering could lead to a few strong gusts as well. Presence of the surface low/boundary and backed low-level flow may result in a low-probability tornado risk as well. ...Iowa/northern Missouri/eastern Nebraska... Some stronger/locally severe pulse-type storms may occur late this afternoon through around sunset within the strong instability/weak deep-layer flow regime. ...Northern Minnesota/Lake Superior... Severe-weather potential should be limited across this region, but will retain low-severe probabilities given somewhat stronger deep-layer shear and a low or conditional-type potential near the advancing front. ...Virginia Tidewater/far northeast North Carolina... Surface reflection of a semi-stacked cyclone is just off the far northeast corner of North Carolina at midday. This low should continue to drift north-northwest today and tonight, while likely gradually weakening, although its northern peripheral strong low-level east/northeasterly winds (reference Wakefield WSR-88D VWP) will likely persist through the day. Dry northerly continental trajectories inland will relegate meaningful (albeit limited) buoyancy to the immediate coasts of the Virginia Tidewater/Maryland shore, and otherwise offshore. This will similarly relegate any transient supercell and low-end tornado/wind risk to the immediate coast, but more likely just offshore. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon into early evening across a portion of the central Great Plains. Large hail, severe gusts, and a tornado or two may occur. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments needed to reflect recent convective trends. Latest GOES imagery shows a steady uptick in convection across the central High Plains/Plains as lingering inhibition is removed via daytime heating. Elevated convection across western NE has also shown signs of intensification, which should continue as the cluster spreads east/southeast into an unstable air mass developing across central NE (see MCD #2085 for additional details). Additional thunderstorm clustering is likely through the evening hours as convective coverage increases across southwest NE/northwest KS and northeast CO. Elsewhere, the previous forecast remains on track. Consideration was given for removing risk probabilities across northeast MN, but temperatures are currently several degrees warmer than anticipated by recent guidance. With shallow cumulus developing upstream along an advancing front, a conditional severe threat may persist into early evening. See MCD #2084 and the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 09/16/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1138 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025/ ...Eastern Colorado/Wyoming and Central Plains... A semi-closed upper low will continue to spread southeastward today over Wyoming and nearby parts of southern Montana and northern Colorado, as a cold front similarly settles southeastward across the Front Range/central High Plains, while a weak surface wave develops northeastward along the front. Increasing forcing for ascent/strengthening flow aloft related to a lead portion of the upper trough will influence steadily increasing and organized thunderstorm development into the afternoon, especially within the immediate post-frontal environment. Buoyancy will be maximized from far northeast Colorado into central Nebraska where low to mid 60s F dewpoints beneath steep mid-level lapse rates will support MLCAPE around 2000-2500 J/kg. The resulting combination of lift, instability, and moderate shear (generally around 35 kt of effective bulk shear) will support strong to severe storms. Large hail appears to be the most prominent hazard (especially western Nebraska), but some clustering could lead to a few strong gusts as well. Presence of the surface low/boundary and backed low-level flow may result in a low-probability tornado risk as well. ...Iowa/northern Missouri/eastern Nebraska... Some stronger/locally severe pulse-type storms may occur late this afternoon through around sunset within the strong instability/weak deep-layer flow regime. ...Northern Minnesota/Lake Superior... Severe-weather potential should be limited across this region, but will retain low-severe probabilities given somewhat stronger deep-layer shear and a low or conditional-type potential near the advancing front. ...Virginia Tidewater/far northeast North Carolina... Surface reflection of a semi-stacked cyclone is just off the far northeast corner of North Carolina at midday. This low should continue to drift north-northwest today and tonight, while likely gradually weakening, although its northern peripheral strong low-level east/northeasterly winds (reference Wakefield WSR-88D VWP) will likely persist through the day. Dry northerly continental trajectories inland will relegate meaningful (albeit limited) buoyancy to the immediate coasts of the Virginia Tidewater/Maryland shore, and otherwise offshore. This will similarly relegate any transient supercell and low-end tornado/wind risk to the immediate coast, but more likely just offshore. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon into early evening across a portion of the central Great Plains. Large hail, severe gusts, and a tornado or two may occur. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments needed to reflect recent convective trends. Latest GOES imagery shows a steady uptick in convection across the central High Plains/Plains as lingering inhibition is removed via daytime heating. Elevated convection across western NE has also shown signs of intensification, which should continue as the cluster spreads east/southeast into an unstable air mass developing across central NE (see MCD #2085 for additional details). Additional thunderstorm clustering is likely through the evening hours as convective coverage increases across southwest NE/northwest KS and northeast CO. Elsewhere, the previous forecast remains on track. Consideration was given for removing risk probabilities across northeast MN, but temperatures are currently several degrees warmer than anticipated by recent guidance. With shallow cumulus developing upstream along an advancing front, a conditional severe threat may persist into early evening. See MCD #2084 and the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 09/16/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1138 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025/ ...Eastern Colorado/Wyoming and Central Plains... A semi-closed upper low will continue to spread southeastward today over Wyoming and nearby parts of southern Montana and northern Colorado, as a cold front similarly settles southeastward across the Front Range/central High Plains, while a weak surface wave develops northeastward along the front. Increasing forcing for ascent/strengthening flow aloft related to a lead portion of the upper trough will influence steadily increasing and organized thunderstorm development into the afternoon, especially within the immediate post-frontal environment. Buoyancy will be maximized from far northeast Colorado into central Nebraska where low to mid 60s F dewpoints beneath steep mid-level lapse rates will support MLCAPE around 2000-2500 J/kg. The resulting combination of lift, instability, and moderate shear (generally around 35 kt of effective bulk shear) will support strong to severe storms. Large hail appears to be the most prominent hazard (especially western Nebraska), but some clustering could lead to a few strong gusts as well. Presence of the surface low/boundary and backed low-level flow may result in a low-probability tornado risk as well. ...Iowa/northern Missouri/eastern Nebraska... Some stronger/locally severe pulse-type storms may occur late this afternoon through around sunset within the strong instability/weak deep-layer flow regime. ...Northern Minnesota/Lake Superior... Severe-weather potential should be limited across this region, but will retain low-severe probabilities given somewhat stronger deep-layer shear and a low or conditional-type potential near the advancing front. ...Virginia Tidewater/far northeast North Carolina... Surface reflection of a semi-stacked cyclone is just off the far northeast corner of North Carolina at midday. This low should continue to drift north-northwest today and tonight, while likely gradually weakening, although its northern peripheral strong low-level east/northeasterly winds (reference Wakefield WSR-88D VWP) will likely persist through the day. Dry northerly continental trajectories inland will relegate meaningful (albeit limited) buoyancy to the immediate coasts of the Virginia Tidewater/Maryland shore, and otherwise offshore. This will similarly relegate any transient supercell and low-end tornado/wind risk to the immediate coast, but more likely just offshore. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon into early evening across a portion of the central Great Plains. Large hail, severe gusts, and a tornado or two may occur. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments needed to reflect recent convective trends. Latest GOES imagery shows a steady uptick in convection across the central High Plains/Plains as lingering inhibition is removed via daytime heating. Elevated convection across western NE has also shown signs of intensification, which should continue as the cluster spreads east/southeast into an unstable air mass developing across central NE (see MCD #2085 for additional details). Additional thunderstorm clustering is likely through the evening hours as convective coverage increases across southwest NE/northwest KS and northeast CO. Elsewhere, the previous forecast remains on track. Consideration was given for removing risk probabilities across northeast MN, but temperatures are currently several degrees warmer than anticipated by recent guidance. With shallow cumulus developing upstream along an advancing front, a conditional severe threat may persist into early evening. See MCD #2084 and the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 09/16/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1138 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025/ ...Eastern Colorado/Wyoming and Central Plains... A semi-closed upper low will continue to spread southeastward today over Wyoming and nearby parts of southern Montana and northern Colorado, as a cold front similarly settles southeastward across the Front Range/central High Plains, while a weak surface wave develops northeastward along the front. Increasing forcing for ascent/strengthening flow aloft related to a lead portion of the upper trough will influence steadily increasing and organized thunderstorm development into the afternoon, especially within the immediate post-frontal environment. Buoyancy will be maximized from far northeast Colorado into central Nebraska where low to mid 60s F dewpoints beneath steep mid-level lapse rates will support MLCAPE around 2000-2500 J/kg. The resulting combination of lift, instability, and moderate shear (generally around 35 kt of effective bulk shear) will support strong to severe storms. Large hail appears to be the most prominent hazard (especially western Nebraska), but some clustering could lead to a few strong gusts as well. Presence of the surface low/boundary and backed low-level flow may result in a low-probability tornado risk as well. ...Iowa/northern Missouri/eastern Nebraska... Some stronger/locally severe pulse-type storms may occur late this afternoon through around sunset within the strong instability/weak deep-layer flow regime. ...Northern Minnesota/Lake Superior... Severe-weather potential should be limited across this region, but will retain low-severe probabilities given somewhat stronger deep-layer shear and a low or conditional-type potential near the advancing front. ...Virginia Tidewater/far northeast North Carolina... Surface reflection of a semi-stacked cyclone is just off the far northeast corner of North Carolina at midday. This low should continue to drift north-northwest today and tonight, while likely gradually weakening, although its northern peripheral strong low-level east/northeasterly winds (reference Wakefield WSR-88D VWP) will likely persist through the day. Dry northerly continental trajectories inland will relegate meaningful (albeit limited) buoyancy to the immediate coasts of the Virginia Tidewater/Maryland shore, and otherwise offshore. This will similarly relegate any transient supercell and low-end tornado/wind risk to the immediate coast, but more likely just offshore. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon into early evening across a portion of the central Great Plains. Large hail, severe gusts, and a tornado or two may occur. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments needed to reflect recent convective trends. Latest GOES imagery shows a steady uptick in convection across the central High Plains/Plains as lingering inhibition is removed via daytime heating. Elevated convection across western NE has also shown signs of intensification, which should continue as the cluster spreads east/southeast into an unstable air mass developing across central NE (see MCD #2085 for additional details). Additional thunderstorm clustering is likely through the evening hours as convective coverage increases across southwest NE/northwest KS and northeast CO. Elsewhere, the previous forecast remains on track. Consideration was given for removing risk probabilities across northeast MN, but temperatures are currently several degrees warmer than anticipated by recent guidance. With shallow cumulus developing upstream along an advancing front, a conditional severe threat may persist into early evening. See MCD #2084 and the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 09/16/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1138 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025/ ...Eastern Colorado/Wyoming and Central Plains... A semi-closed upper low will continue to spread southeastward today over Wyoming and nearby parts of southern Montana and northern Colorado, as a cold front similarly settles southeastward across the Front Range/central High Plains, while a weak surface wave develops northeastward along the front. Increasing forcing for ascent/strengthening flow aloft related to a lead portion of the upper trough will influence steadily increasing and organized thunderstorm development into the afternoon, especially within the immediate post-frontal environment. Buoyancy will be maximized from far northeast Colorado into central Nebraska where low to mid 60s F dewpoints beneath steep mid-level lapse rates will support MLCAPE around 2000-2500 J/kg. The resulting combination of lift, instability, and moderate shear (generally around 35 kt of effective bulk shear) will support strong to severe storms. Large hail appears to be the most prominent hazard (especially western Nebraska), but some clustering could lead to a few strong gusts as well. Presence of the surface low/boundary and backed low-level flow may result in a low-probability tornado risk as well. ...Iowa/northern Missouri/eastern Nebraska... Some stronger/locally severe pulse-type storms may occur late this afternoon through around sunset within the strong instability/weak deep-layer flow regime. ...Northern Minnesota/Lake Superior... Severe-weather potential should be limited across this region, but will retain low-severe probabilities given somewhat stronger deep-layer shear and a low or conditional-type potential near the advancing front. ...Virginia Tidewater/far northeast North Carolina... Surface reflection of a semi-stacked cyclone is just off the far northeast corner of North Carolina at midday. This low should continue to drift north-northwest today and tonight, while likely gradually weakening, although its northern peripheral strong low-level east/northeasterly winds (reference Wakefield WSR-88D VWP) will likely persist through the day. Dry northerly continental trajectories inland will relegate meaningful (albeit limited) buoyancy to the immediate coasts of the Virginia Tidewater/Maryland shore, and otherwise offshore. This will similarly relegate any transient supercell and low-end tornado/wind risk to the immediate coast, but more likely just offshore. Read more

No watches are valid as of Tue Sep 16 19:29:02 UTC 2025.

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A weakening mid- to upper-level low centered over NE/SD will meander slowly eastward over NE/KS and an associated trough axis pivoting from northeastern NM into OK. Weak surface low pressure will encompass the eastern portions of the Plains into the MO/MS Valley vicinity. Upper 50s to mid 60s F dewpoints will be in place from portions of the southern Plains into the Ozarks and northward to the Upper Midwest. Pockets of weak to moderate instability will promote diurnally driven scattered thunderstorms within this corridor. However, severe potential should remain limited given nebulous forcing for ascent, weak vertical shear and poor lapse rates. ..Smith.. 09/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A weakening mid- to upper-level low centered over NE/SD will meander slowly eastward over NE/KS and an associated trough axis pivoting from northeastern NM into OK. Weak surface low pressure will encompass the eastern portions of the Plains into the MO/MS Valley vicinity. Upper 50s to mid 60s F dewpoints will be in place from portions of the southern Plains into the Ozarks and northward to the Upper Midwest. Pockets of weak to moderate instability will promote diurnally driven scattered thunderstorms within this corridor. However, severe potential should remain limited given nebulous forcing for ascent, weak vertical shear and poor lapse rates. ..Smith.. 09/16/2025 Read more