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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ROUGHLY FROM IOWA INTO ILLINOIS AND INDIANA... ...SUMMARY... Corridors of strong to severe storms are expected from the northern and central High Plains to the Mid-Mississippi and Lower Ohio Valleys on Saturday. ...IA/IL/IN... Model QPF differences aside, the overarching theme is for a large area of strong instability to develop near a stalled front from southern IA/northern MO into IL and IN Saturday afternoon with mid 70s F dewpoints. This will exist beneath the southern fringe of perhaps 40 kt west/northwest midlevel flow, and the combination of strong instability and favorable deep-layer mean winds will favor corridors of severe storms with damaging winds. Shear may also favor severe hail, and even a few supercells given such large CAPE over IA/IL/IN. The risk area will likely be adjusted in subsequent outlook cycles as the event nears. ...High Plains... Modest westerly midlevel flow of 30-40 kt will exist over the northern High Plains, ahead of a broad upper trough over the Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies. Cool midlevel temperatures will also exist, steepening lapse rates. Strong heating is likely within a surface trough from eastern MT southward across the High Plains, with a ribbon of 1500-2000 J/kg MUCAPE wrapping northwestward around a MN surface high. Cells capable of hail and localized severe gusts will be possible, and a severe MCS is not out of the question overnight into ND as the low-level jet increases. Greater probabilities may be required in later updates. ..Jewell.. 07/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ROUGHLY FROM IOWA INTO ILLINOIS AND INDIANA... ...SUMMARY... Corridors of strong to severe storms are expected from the northern and central High Plains to the Mid-Mississippi and Lower Ohio Valleys on Saturday. ...IA/IL/IN... Model QPF differences aside, the overarching theme is for a large area of strong instability to develop near a stalled front from southern IA/northern MO into IL and IN Saturday afternoon with mid 70s F dewpoints. This will exist beneath the southern fringe of perhaps 40 kt west/northwest midlevel flow, and the combination of strong instability and favorable deep-layer mean winds will favor corridors of severe storms with damaging winds. Shear may also favor severe hail, and even a few supercells given such large CAPE over IA/IL/IN. The risk area will likely be adjusted in subsequent outlook cycles as the event nears. ...High Plains... Modest westerly midlevel flow of 30-40 kt will exist over the northern High Plains, ahead of a broad upper trough over the Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies. Cool midlevel temperatures will also exist, steepening lapse rates. Strong heating is likely within a surface trough from eastern MT southward across the High Plains, with a ribbon of 1500-2000 J/kg MUCAPE wrapping northwestward around a MN surface high. Cells capable of hail and localized severe gusts will be possible, and a severe MCS is not out of the question overnight into ND as the low-level jet increases. Greater probabilities may be required in later updates. ..Jewell.. 07/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ROUGHLY FROM IOWA INTO ILLINOIS AND INDIANA... ...SUMMARY... Corridors of strong to severe storms are expected from the northern and central High Plains to the Mid-Mississippi and Lower Ohio Valleys on Saturday. ...IA/IL/IN... Model QPF differences aside, the overarching theme is for a large area of strong instability to develop near a stalled front from southern IA/northern MO into IL and IN Saturday afternoon with mid 70s F dewpoints. This will exist beneath the southern fringe of perhaps 40 kt west/northwest midlevel flow, and the combination of strong instability and favorable deep-layer mean winds will favor corridors of severe storms with damaging winds. Shear may also favor severe hail, and even a few supercells given such large CAPE over IA/IL/IN. The risk area will likely be adjusted in subsequent outlook cycles as the event nears. ...High Plains... Modest westerly midlevel flow of 30-40 kt will exist over the northern High Plains, ahead of a broad upper trough over the Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies. Cool midlevel temperatures will also exist, steepening lapse rates. Strong heating is likely within a surface trough from eastern MT southward across the High Plains, with a ribbon of 1500-2000 J/kg MUCAPE wrapping northwestward around a MN surface high. Cells capable of hail and localized severe gusts will be possible, and a severe MCS is not out of the question overnight into ND as the low-level jet increases. Greater probabilities may be required in later updates. ..Jewell.. 07/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ROUGHLY FROM IOWA INTO ILLINOIS AND INDIANA... ...SUMMARY... Corridors of strong to severe storms are expected from the northern and central High Plains to the Mid-Mississippi and Lower Ohio Valleys on Saturday. ...IA/IL/IN... Model QPF differences aside, the overarching theme is for a large area of strong instability to develop near a stalled front from southern IA/northern MO into IL and IN Saturday afternoon with mid 70s F dewpoints. This will exist beneath the southern fringe of perhaps 40 kt west/northwest midlevel flow, and the combination of strong instability and favorable deep-layer mean winds will favor corridors of severe storms with damaging winds. Shear may also favor severe hail, and even a few supercells given such large CAPE over IA/IL/IN. The risk area will likely be adjusted in subsequent outlook cycles as the event nears. ...High Plains... Modest westerly midlevel flow of 30-40 kt will exist over the northern High Plains, ahead of a broad upper trough over the Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies. Cool midlevel temperatures will also exist, steepening lapse rates. Strong heating is likely within a surface trough from eastern MT southward across the High Plains, with a ribbon of 1500-2000 J/kg MUCAPE wrapping northwestward around a MN surface high. Cells capable of hail and localized severe gusts will be possible, and a severe MCS is not out of the question overnight into ND as the low-level jet increases. Greater probabilities may be required in later updates. ..Jewell.. 07/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ROUGHLY FROM IOWA INTO ILLINOIS AND INDIANA... ...SUMMARY... Corridors of strong to severe storms are expected from the northern and central High Plains to the Mid-Mississippi and Lower Ohio Valleys on Saturday. ...IA/IL/IN... Model QPF differences aside, the overarching theme is for a large area of strong instability to develop near a stalled front from southern IA/northern MO into IL and IN Saturday afternoon with mid 70s F dewpoints. This will exist beneath the southern fringe of perhaps 40 kt west/northwest midlevel flow, and the combination of strong instability and favorable deep-layer mean winds will favor corridors of severe storms with damaging winds. Shear may also favor severe hail, and even a few supercells given such large CAPE over IA/IL/IN. The risk area will likely be adjusted in subsequent outlook cycles as the event nears. ...High Plains... Modest westerly midlevel flow of 30-40 kt will exist over the northern High Plains, ahead of a broad upper trough over the Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies. Cool midlevel temperatures will also exist, steepening lapse rates. Strong heating is likely within a surface trough from eastern MT southward across the High Plains, with a ribbon of 1500-2000 J/kg MUCAPE wrapping northwestward around a MN surface high. Cells capable of hail and localized severe gusts will be possible, and a severe MCS is not out of the question overnight into ND as the low-level jet increases. Greater probabilities may be required in later updates. ..Jewell.. 07/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ROUGHLY FROM IOWA INTO ILLINOIS AND INDIANA... ...SUMMARY... Corridors of strong to severe storms are expected from the northern and central High Plains to the Mid-Mississippi and Lower Ohio Valleys on Saturday. ...IA/IL/IN... Model QPF differences aside, the overarching theme is for a large area of strong instability to develop near a stalled front from southern IA/northern MO into IL and IN Saturday afternoon with mid 70s F dewpoints. This will exist beneath the southern fringe of perhaps 40 kt west/northwest midlevel flow, and the combination of strong instability and favorable deep-layer mean winds will favor corridors of severe storms with damaging winds. Shear may also favor severe hail, and even a few supercells given such large CAPE over IA/IL/IN. The risk area will likely be adjusted in subsequent outlook cycles as the event nears. ...High Plains... Modest westerly midlevel flow of 30-40 kt will exist over the northern High Plains, ahead of a broad upper trough over the Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies. Cool midlevel temperatures will also exist, steepening lapse rates. Strong heating is likely within a surface trough from eastern MT southward across the High Plains, with a ribbon of 1500-2000 J/kg MUCAPE wrapping northwestward around a MN surface high. Cells capable of hail and localized severe gusts will be possible, and a severe MCS is not out of the question overnight into ND as the low-level jet increases. Greater probabilities may be required in later updates. ..Jewell.. 07/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ROUGHLY FROM IOWA INTO ILLINOIS AND INDIANA... ...SUMMARY... Corridors of strong to severe storms are expected from the northern and central High Plains to the Mid-Mississippi and Lower Ohio Valleys on Saturday. ...IA/IL/IN... Model QPF differences aside, the overarching theme is for a large area of strong instability to develop near a stalled front from southern IA/northern MO into IL and IN Saturday afternoon with mid 70s F dewpoints. This will exist beneath the southern fringe of perhaps 40 kt west/northwest midlevel flow, and the combination of strong instability and favorable deep-layer mean winds will favor corridors of severe storms with damaging winds. Shear may also favor severe hail, and even a few supercells given such large CAPE over IA/IL/IN. The risk area will likely be adjusted in subsequent outlook cycles as the event nears. ...High Plains... Modest westerly midlevel flow of 30-40 kt will exist over the northern High Plains, ahead of a broad upper trough over the Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies. Cool midlevel temperatures will also exist, steepening lapse rates. Strong heating is likely within a surface trough from eastern MT southward across the High Plains, with a ribbon of 1500-2000 J/kg MUCAPE wrapping northwestward around a MN surface high. Cells capable of hail and localized severe gusts will be possible, and a severe MCS is not out of the question overnight into ND as the low-level jet increases. Greater probabilities may be required in later updates. ..Jewell.. 07/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ROUGHLY FROM IOWA INTO ILLINOIS AND INDIANA... ...SUMMARY... Corridors of strong to severe storms are expected from the northern and central High Plains to the Mid-Mississippi and Lower Ohio Valleys on Saturday. ...IA/IL/IN... Model QPF differences aside, the overarching theme is for a large area of strong instability to develop near a stalled front from southern IA/northern MO into IL and IN Saturday afternoon with mid 70s F dewpoints. This will exist beneath the southern fringe of perhaps 40 kt west/northwest midlevel flow, and the combination of strong instability and favorable deep-layer mean winds will favor corridors of severe storms with damaging winds. Shear may also favor severe hail, and even a few supercells given such large CAPE over IA/IL/IN. The risk area will likely be adjusted in subsequent outlook cycles as the event nears. ...High Plains... Modest westerly midlevel flow of 30-40 kt will exist over the northern High Plains, ahead of a broad upper trough over the Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies. Cool midlevel temperatures will also exist, steepening lapse rates. Strong heating is likely within a surface trough from eastern MT southward across the High Plains, with a ribbon of 1500-2000 J/kg MUCAPE wrapping northwestward around a MN surface high. Cells capable of hail and localized severe gusts will be possible, and a severe MCS is not out of the question overnight into ND as the low-level jet increases. Greater probabilities may be required in later updates. ..Jewell.. 07/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ROUGHLY FROM IOWA INTO ILLINOIS AND INDIANA... ...SUMMARY... Corridors of strong to severe storms are expected from the northern and central High Plains to the Mid-Mississippi and Lower Ohio Valleys on Saturday. ...IA/IL/IN... Model QPF differences aside, the overarching theme is for a large area of strong instability to develop near a stalled front from southern IA/northern MO into IL and IN Saturday afternoon with mid 70s F dewpoints. This will exist beneath the southern fringe of perhaps 40 kt west/northwest midlevel flow, and the combination of strong instability and favorable deep-layer mean winds will favor corridors of severe storms with damaging winds. Shear may also favor severe hail, and even a few supercells given such large CAPE over IA/IL/IN. The risk area will likely be adjusted in subsequent outlook cycles as the event nears. ...High Plains... Modest westerly midlevel flow of 30-40 kt will exist over the northern High Plains, ahead of a broad upper trough over the Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies. Cool midlevel temperatures will also exist, steepening lapse rates. Strong heating is likely within a surface trough from eastern MT southward across the High Plains, with a ribbon of 1500-2000 J/kg MUCAPE wrapping northwestward around a MN surface high. Cells capable of hail and localized severe gusts will be possible, and a severe MCS is not out of the question overnight into ND as the low-level jet increases. Greater probabilities may be required in later updates. ..Jewell.. 07/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ROUGHLY FROM IOWA INTO ILLINOIS AND INDIANA... ...SUMMARY... Corridors of strong to severe storms are expected from the northern and central High Plains to the Mid-Mississippi and Lower Ohio Valleys on Saturday. ...IA/IL/IN... Model QPF differences aside, the overarching theme is for a large area of strong instability to develop near a stalled front from southern IA/northern MO into IL and IN Saturday afternoon with mid 70s F dewpoints. This will exist beneath the southern fringe of perhaps 40 kt west/northwest midlevel flow, and the combination of strong instability and favorable deep-layer mean winds will favor corridors of severe storms with damaging winds. Shear may also favor severe hail, and even a few supercells given such large CAPE over IA/IL/IN. The risk area will likely be adjusted in subsequent outlook cycles as the event nears. ...High Plains... Modest westerly midlevel flow of 30-40 kt will exist over the northern High Plains, ahead of a broad upper trough over the Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies. Cool midlevel temperatures will also exist, steepening lapse rates. Strong heating is likely within a surface trough from eastern MT southward across the High Plains, with a ribbon of 1500-2000 J/kg MUCAPE wrapping northwestward around a MN surface high. Cells capable of hail and localized severe gusts will be possible, and a severe MCS is not out of the question overnight into ND as the low-level jet increases. Greater probabilities may be required in later updates. ..Jewell.. 07/17/2025 Read more

WW 0521 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0521 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0521 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0521 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0521 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0521 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

No watches are valid as of Thu Jul 17 17:56:02 UTC 2025.

315
ABNT20 KNHC 171733
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Thu Jul 17 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Northern Gulf Coast and Southeastern Louisiana (AL93):
Satellite, surface, and radar data indicate that the broad low
pressure area is moving inland over southeastern Louisiana, and
that the associated shower and thunderstorm activity remains
disorganized and located mainly to the west and southwest
of the center. Little development is expected while the center
remains near the coast this afternoon and tonight, and the system
is expected to weaken as it moves farther inland on Friday.

Regardless of development, heavy rainfall could produce localized
flash flooding over portions of the north-central Gulf Coast through
Friday. For additional information, please refer to products issued
by the Weather Prediction Center and your local National Weather
Service office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND OVER MUCH OF VIRGINIA INTO NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of South Dakota and Nebraska into southern Minnesota and Iowa. Additional strong to severe storms may occur across portions of West Virginia, Virginia and North Carolina. ...Northern Plains... A midlevel, low-amplitude wave will move from the Dakotas into MN during the day, with a cold front gradually moving south from western SD into western NE. Southwest winds at 850 mb will aid lift and theta-e advection from ND into northern MN, with early day elevated thunderstorms expected. As heating occurs, low pressure will develop from south-central SD into central NE, with convergence focused in this region. At least isolated cells are expected from southeast SD into central NE by 00Z, with hail and localized wind potential. Additional cells will likely drop southeast out of eastern WY during the evening, with localized hail/wind potential. Model solutions vary regarding MCS potential during the evening from SD/NE into southern MN/IA, but it does appear likely at least localized corridors/clusters of storms will persist through the night as capping will not be particularly strong, and southwest 850 mb flow aids warm advection. Damaging gusts are conditionally possible. ...WV/VA into NC... Neutral height tendencies will exist on Friday as an upper high remains just to the south, and an upper trough exits the northeastern states. Westerly midlevel flow will average 25-35 kt as a weak surface trough develops near the VA/NC border during the afternoon. Daytime heating combined with 70s F dewpoints will lead tall CAPE profiles with over 2000 J/kg MLCAPE and precipitable water over 2.00". Storms will form over the higher terrain along the WV/VA border and spread east during the afternoon. Additional development is likely near the surface trough into southern VA to northern NC. Given favorable time of day coincident with peak heating, locally damaging outflow winds may occur. ..Jewell.. 07/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND OVER MUCH OF VIRGINIA INTO NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of South Dakota and Nebraska into southern Minnesota and Iowa. Additional strong to severe storms may occur across portions of West Virginia, Virginia and North Carolina. ...Northern Plains... A midlevel, low-amplitude wave will move from the Dakotas into MN during the day, with a cold front gradually moving south from western SD into western NE. Southwest winds at 850 mb will aid lift and theta-e advection from ND into northern MN, with early day elevated thunderstorms expected. As heating occurs, low pressure will develop from south-central SD into central NE, with convergence focused in this region. At least isolated cells are expected from southeast SD into central NE by 00Z, with hail and localized wind potential. Additional cells will likely drop southeast out of eastern WY during the evening, with localized hail/wind potential. Model solutions vary regarding MCS potential during the evening from SD/NE into southern MN/IA, but it does appear likely at least localized corridors/clusters of storms will persist through the night as capping will not be particularly strong, and southwest 850 mb flow aids warm advection. Damaging gusts are conditionally possible. ...WV/VA into NC... Neutral height tendencies will exist on Friday as an upper high remains just to the south, and an upper trough exits the northeastern states. Westerly midlevel flow will average 25-35 kt as a weak surface trough develops near the VA/NC border during the afternoon. Daytime heating combined with 70s F dewpoints will lead tall CAPE profiles with over 2000 J/kg MLCAPE and precipitable water over 2.00". Storms will form over the higher terrain along the WV/VA border and spread east during the afternoon. Additional development is likely near the surface trough into southern VA to northern NC. Given favorable time of day coincident with peak heating, locally damaging outflow winds may occur. ..Jewell.. 07/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND OVER MUCH OF VIRGINIA INTO NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of South Dakota and Nebraska into southern Minnesota and Iowa. Additional strong to severe storms may occur across portions of West Virginia, Virginia and North Carolina. ...Northern Plains... A midlevel, low-amplitude wave will move from the Dakotas into MN during the day, with a cold front gradually moving south from western SD into western NE. Southwest winds at 850 mb will aid lift and theta-e advection from ND into northern MN, with early day elevated thunderstorms expected. As heating occurs, low pressure will develop from south-central SD into central NE, with convergence focused in this region. At least isolated cells are expected from southeast SD into central NE by 00Z, with hail and localized wind potential. Additional cells will likely drop southeast out of eastern WY during the evening, with localized hail/wind potential. Model solutions vary regarding MCS potential during the evening from SD/NE into southern MN/IA, but it does appear likely at least localized corridors/clusters of storms will persist through the night as capping will not be particularly strong, and southwest 850 mb flow aids warm advection. Damaging gusts are conditionally possible. ...WV/VA into NC... Neutral height tendencies will exist on Friday as an upper high remains just to the south, and an upper trough exits the northeastern states. Westerly midlevel flow will average 25-35 kt as a weak surface trough develops near the VA/NC border during the afternoon. Daytime heating combined with 70s F dewpoints will lead tall CAPE profiles with over 2000 J/kg MLCAPE and precipitable water over 2.00". Storms will form over the higher terrain along the WV/VA border and spread east during the afternoon. Additional development is likely near the surface trough into southern VA to northern NC. Given favorable time of day coincident with peak heating, locally damaging outflow winds may occur. ..Jewell.. 07/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND OVER MUCH OF VIRGINIA INTO NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of South Dakota and Nebraska into southern Minnesota and Iowa. Additional strong to severe storms may occur across portions of West Virginia, Virginia and North Carolina. ...Northern Plains... A midlevel, low-amplitude wave will move from the Dakotas into MN during the day, with a cold front gradually moving south from western SD into western NE. Southwest winds at 850 mb will aid lift and theta-e advection from ND into northern MN, with early day elevated thunderstorms expected. As heating occurs, low pressure will develop from south-central SD into central NE, with convergence focused in this region. At least isolated cells are expected from southeast SD into central NE by 00Z, with hail and localized wind potential. Additional cells will likely drop southeast out of eastern WY during the evening, with localized hail/wind potential. Model solutions vary regarding MCS potential during the evening from SD/NE into southern MN/IA, but it does appear likely at least localized corridors/clusters of storms will persist through the night as capping will not be particularly strong, and southwest 850 mb flow aids warm advection. Damaging gusts are conditionally possible. ...WV/VA into NC... Neutral height tendencies will exist on Friday as an upper high remains just to the south, and an upper trough exits the northeastern states. Westerly midlevel flow will average 25-35 kt as a weak surface trough develops near the VA/NC border during the afternoon. Daytime heating combined with 70s F dewpoints will lead tall CAPE profiles with over 2000 J/kg MLCAPE and precipitable water over 2.00". Storms will form over the higher terrain along the WV/VA border and spread east during the afternoon. Additional development is likely near the surface trough into southern VA to northern NC. Given favorable time of day coincident with peak heating, locally damaging outflow winds may occur. ..Jewell.. 07/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND OVER MUCH OF VIRGINIA INTO NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of South Dakota and Nebraska into southern Minnesota and Iowa. Additional strong to severe storms may occur across portions of West Virginia, Virginia and North Carolina. ...Northern Plains... A midlevel, low-amplitude wave will move from the Dakotas into MN during the day, with a cold front gradually moving south from western SD into western NE. Southwest winds at 850 mb will aid lift and theta-e advection from ND into northern MN, with early day elevated thunderstorms expected. As heating occurs, low pressure will develop from south-central SD into central NE, with convergence focused in this region. At least isolated cells are expected from southeast SD into central NE by 00Z, with hail and localized wind potential. Additional cells will likely drop southeast out of eastern WY during the evening, with localized hail/wind potential. Model solutions vary regarding MCS potential during the evening from SD/NE into southern MN/IA, but it does appear likely at least localized corridors/clusters of storms will persist through the night as capping will not be particularly strong, and southwest 850 mb flow aids warm advection. Damaging gusts are conditionally possible. ...WV/VA into NC... Neutral height tendencies will exist on Friday as an upper high remains just to the south, and an upper trough exits the northeastern states. Westerly midlevel flow will average 25-35 kt as a weak surface trough develops near the VA/NC border during the afternoon. Daytime heating combined with 70s F dewpoints will lead tall CAPE profiles with over 2000 J/kg MLCAPE and precipitable water over 2.00". Storms will form over the higher terrain along the WV/VA border and spread east during the afternoon. Additional development is likely near the surface trough into southern VA to northern NC. Given favorable time of day coincident with peak heating, locally damaging outflow winds may occur. ..Jewell.. 07/17/2025 Read more