Aggregator

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 162307
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Tue Sep 16 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Mario, located several hundred miles west of the southern
tip of the Baja California Peninsula.

Off the Coast of Southwestern Mexico (EP96):
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area
of low pressure located a few hundred miles off the coast of
southwestern Mexico have become more concentrated over the past
several hours. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
additional development of this system, and a tropical depression is
likely to form during the next couple of days as it moves
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the central east Pacific.
*Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
*Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen

MD 2086 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHEAST COLORADO INTO FAR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 2086 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0447 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025 Areas affected...portions of far southeast Colorado into far southwestern Kansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 162147Z - 162315Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A few instances of severe hail may accompany the stronger storms that can mature, and a severe gust also cannot be ruled out. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have been increasing in intensity across southeastern CO into southwestern KS over the past 1-2 hours, with 50+ dBZ cores occasionally exceeding 30 kft per MRMS mosaic radar imagery. These storms are developing amid a steep mid-level lapse rate environment (e.g. 8 C/km), yielding 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE. Despite favorable buoyancy, vertical wind shear is relatively poor, and forcing for ascent should remain weak as well, which should limit the overall severe threat. Nonetheless, given steep mid-level lapse rates, any storm that can mature and achieve at least transient supercell structure may produce isolated instances of severe hail and perhaps a severe gust or two. ..Squitieri/Gleason.. 09/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DDC...AMA...PUB... LAT...LON 37420333 38070280 38250125 38150054 37680041 37270053 37040085 36930143 36880202 36950266 37060305 37420333 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

Heat and the lack of rain prompted officials in some Indiana counties to enact burn bans. In Dearborn County, Indiana, the Board of Commissioners announced a burn ban. Other Indiana counties with bans included Franklin, Switzerland, and Union. WCPO-TV ABC 9 Cincinnati (Ohio), Sep 16, 2025

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0455 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z Shortwave ridging will rapidly build over the western US through midweek while aloft, an upper low will gradually strengthen over the East. There after, the upper-level flow pattern will gradually transition to stronger semi-zonal flow. Warm and dry conditions are likely initially, potentially followed by stronger winds and an increase in thunderstorm potential over the West through this weekend and into early next week. ...Northwest... High pressure will briefly build over the Northwest behind the upper low over the central US through the remainder of this week. This should support a significant warming trend and some fuel drying in response. Gusty west winds are also possible as a lee/thermal trough develops D3/Thursday. Later into the weekend, strong zonal flow will return, potentially supporting dry downslope conditions over the western Columbia Basin. This seem especially likely D5/Saturday and through the remainder of the weekend. With fuels expected to dry, some increase in fire-weather threat is possible into early next week as zonal flow continues. ...Eastern US... Warm and dry conditions are expected over much of the eastern/southeastern US through the extended forecast period. However, winds are expected to remain modest with high pressure in place. Area fuels will continue to dry with ongoing drought. Some potential for gusty northwest winds may develop D4/Friday through the weekend behind a cold front over the Northeast as the upper low moves offshore. The gusty offshore winds and dry conditions could potentially support localized fire-weather conditions through the weekend and into early next week. ...Thunderstorms... A sub-tropical air mass associated with the remnants of TS Mario over the eastern Pacific will overspread much of the West beginning the middle of this week. Accompanying the increase in moisture, strong southwesterly flow should also overspread the West Coast. This should favor scattered, primarily wet thunderstorms into the weekend across southern and central CA. Wetting rainfall potential appears high with PWATS near or exceeding 1 inch at times, which should temper area fuels. Farther north across northern CA and southern OR into the northern Great Basin, drier conditions at the fringes of the moisture surge could favor higher cloud bases and a greater risk for dry lightning through the weekend. The previous warming and drying episode could also allow fuels to be more receptive. However, model guidance continues to vary substantially on the thunderstorm threat and no probabilities will be assessed until a greater agreement in guidance is reached. ..Lyons.. 09/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0455 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z Shortwave ridging will rapidly build over the western US through midweek while aloft, an upper low will gradually strengthen over the East. There after, the upper-level flow pattern will gradually transition to stronger semi-zonal flow. Warm and dry conditions are likely initially, potentially followed by stronger winds and an increase in thunderstorm potential over the West through this weekend and into early next week. ...Northwest... High pressure will briefly build over the Northwest behind the upper low over the central US through the remainder of this week. This should support a significant warming trend and some fuel drying in response. Gusty west winds are also possible as a lee/thermal trough develops D3/Thursday. Later into the weekend, strong zonal flow will return, potentially supporting dry downslope conditions over the western Columbia Basin. This seem especially likely D5/Saturday and through the remainder of the weekend. With fuels expected to dry, some increase in fire-weather threat is possible into early next week as zonal flow continues. ...Eastern US... Warm and dry conditions are expected over much of the eastern/southeastern US through the extended forecast period. However, winds are expected to remain modest with high pressure in place. Area fuels will continue to dry with ongoing drought. Some potential for gusty northwest winds may develop D4/Friday through the weekend behind a cold front over the Northeast as the upper low moves offshore. The gusty offshore winds and dry conditions could potentially support localized fire-weather conditions through the weekend and into early next week. ...Thunderstorms... A sub-tropical air mass associated with the remnants of TS Mario over the eastern Pacific will overspread much of the West beginning the middle of this week. Accompanying the increase in moisture, strong southwesterly flow should also overspread the West Coast. This should favor scattered, primarily wet thunderstorms into the weekend across southern and central CA. Wetting rainfall potential appears high with PWATS near or exceeding 1 inch at times, which should temper area fuels. Farther north across northern CA and southern OR into the northern Great Basin, drier conditions at the fringes of the moisture surge could favor higher cloud bases and a greater risk for dry lightning through the weekend. The previous warming and drying episode could also allow fuels to be more receptive. However, model guidance continues to vary substantially on the thunderstorm threat and no probabilities will be assessed until a greater agreement in guidance is reached. ..Lyons.. 09/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0455 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z Shortwave ridging will rapidly build over the western US through midweek while aloft, an upper low will gradually strengthen over the East. There after, the upper-level flow pattern will gradually transition to stronger semi-zonal flow. Warm and dry conditions are likely initially, potentially followed by stronger winds and an increase in thunderstorm potential over the West through this weekend and into early next week. ...Northwest... High pressure will briefly build over the Northwest behind the upper low over the central US through the remainder of this week. This should support a significant warming trend and some fuel drying in response. Gusty west winds are also possible as a lee/thermal trough develops D3/Thursday. Later into the weekend, strong zonal flow will return, potentially supporting dry downslope conditions over the western Columbia Basin. This seem especially likely D5/Saturday and through the remainder of the weekend. With fuels expected to dry, some increase in fire-weather threat is possible into early next week as zonal flow continues. ...Eastern US... Warm and dry conditions are expected over much of the eastern/southeastern US through the extended forecast period. However, winds are expected to remain modest with high pressure in place. Area fuels will continue to dry with ongoing drought. Some potential for gusty northwest winds may develop D4/Friday through the weekend behind a cold front over the Northeast as the upper low moves offshore. The gusty offshore winds and dry conditions could potentially support localized fire-weather conditions through the weekend and into early next week. ...Thunderstorms... A sub-tropical air mass associated with the remnants of TS Mario over the eastern Pacific will overspread much of the West beginning the middle of this week. Accompanying the increase in moisture, strong southwesterly flow should also overspread the West Coast. This should favor scattered, primarily wet thunderstorms into the weekend across southern and central CA. Wetting rainfall potential appears high with PWATS near or exceeding 1 inch at times, which should temper area fuels. Farther north across northern CA and southern OR into the northern Great Basin, drier conditions at the fringes of the moisture surge could favor higher cloud bases and a greater risk for dry lightning through the weekend. The previous warming and drying episode could also allow fuels to be more receptive. However, model guidance continues to vary substantially on the thunderstorm threat and no probabilities will be assessed until a greater agreement in guidance is reached. ..Lyons.. 09/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0455 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z Shortwave ridging will rapidly build over the western US through midweek while aloft, an upper low will gradually strengthen over the East. There after, the upper-level flow pattern will gradually transition to stronger semi-zonal flow. Warm and dry conditions are likely initially, potentially followed by stronger winds and an increase in thunderstorm potential over the West through this weekend and into early next week. ...Northwest... High pressure will briefly build over the Northwest behind the upper low over the central US through the remainder of this week. This should support a significant warming trend and some fuel drying in response. Gusty west winds are also possible as a lee/thermal trough develops D3/Thursday. Later into the weekend, strong zonal flow will return, potentially supporting dry downslope conditions over the western Columbia Basin. This seem especially likely D5/Saturday and through the remainder of the weekend. With fuels expected to dry, some increase in fire-weather threat is possible into early next week as zonal flow continues. ...Eastern US... Warm and dry conditions are expected over much of the eastern/southeastern US through the extended forecast period. However, winds are expected to remain modest with high pressure in place. Area fuels will continue to dry with ongoing drought. Some potential for gusty northwest winds may develop D4/Friday through the weekend behind a cold front over the Northeast as the upper low moves offshore. The gusty offshore winds and dry conditions could potentially support localized fire-weather conditions through the weekend and into early next week. ...Thunderstorms... A sub-tropical air mass associated with the remnants of TS Mario over the eastern Pacific will overspread much of the West beginning the middle of this week. Accompanying the increase in moisture, strong southwesterly flow should also overspread the West Coast. This should favor scattered, primarily wet thunderstorms into the weekend across southern and central CA. Wetting rainfall potential appears high with PWATS near or exceeding 1 inch at times, which should temper area fuels. Farther north across northern CA and southern OR into the northern Great Basin, drier conditions at the fringes of the moisture surge could favor higher cloud bases and a greater risk for dry lightning through the weekend. The previous warming and drying episode could also allow fuels to be more receptive. However, model guidance continues to vary substantially on the thunderstorm threat and no probabilities will be assessed until a greater agreement in guidance is reached. ..Lyons.. 09/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0455 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z Shortwave ridging will rapidly build over the western US through midweek while aloft, an upper low will gradually strengthen over the East. There after, the upper-level flow pattern will gradually transition to stronger semi-zonal flow. Warm and dry conditions are likely initially, potentially followed by stronger winds and an increase in thunderstorm potential over the West through this weekend and into early next week. ...Northwest... High pressure will briefly build over the Northwest behind the upper low over the central US through the remainder of this week. This should support a significant warming trend and some fuel drying in response. Gusty west winds are also possible as a lee/thermal trough develops D3/Thursday. Later into the weekend, strong zonal flow will return, potentially supporting dry downslope conditions over the western Columbia Basin. This seem especially likely D5/Saturday and through the remainder of the weekend. With fuels expected to dry, some increase in fire-weather threat is possible into early next week as zonal flow continues. ...Eastern US... Warm and dry conditions are expected over much of the eastern/southeastern US through the extended forecast period. However, winds are expected to remain modest with high pressure in place. Area fuels will continue to dry with ongoing drought. Some potential for gusty northwest winds may develop D4/Friday through the weekend behind a cold front over the Northeast as the upper low moves offshore. The gusty offshore winds and dry conditions could potentially support localized fire-weather conditions through the weekend and into early next week. ...Thunderstorms... A sub-tropical air mass associated with the remnants of TS Mario over the eastern Pacific will overspread much of the West beginning the middle of this week. Accompanying the increase in moisture, strong southwesterly flow should also overspread the West Coast. This should favor scattered, primarily wet thunderstorms into the weekend across southern and central CA. Wetting rainfall potential appears high with PWATS near or exceeding 1 inch at times, which should temper area fuels. Farther north across northern CA and southern OR into the northern Great Basin, drier conditions at the fringes of the moisture surge could favor higher cloud bases and a greater risk for dry lightning through the weekend. The previous warming and drying episode could also allow fuels to be more receptive. However, model guidance continues to vary substantially on the thunderstorm threat and no probabilities will be assessed until a greater agreement in guidance is reached. ..Lyons.. 09/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0455 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z Shortwave ridging will rapidly build over the western US through midweek while aloft, an upper low will gradually strengthen over the East. There after, the upper-level flow pattern will gradually transition to stronger semi-zonal flow. Warm and dry conditions are likely initially, potentially followed by stronger winds and an increase in thunderstorm potential over the West through this weekend and into early next week. ...Northwest... High pressure will briefly build over the Northwest behind the upper low over the central US through the remainder of this week. This should support a significant warming trend and some fuel drying in response. Gusty west winds are also possible as a lee/thermal trough develops D3/Thursday. Later into the weekend, strong zonal flow will return, potentially supporting dry downslope conditions over the western Columbia Basin. This seem especially likely D5/Saturday and through the remainder of the weekend. With fuels expected to dry, some increase in fire-weather threat is possible into early next week as zonal flow continues. ...Eastern US... Warm and dry conditions are expected over much of the eastern/southeastern US through the extended forecast period. However, winds are expected to remain modest with high pressure in place. Area fuels will continue to dry with ongoing drought. Some potential for gusty northwest winds may develop D4/Friday through the weekend behind a cold front over the Northeast as the upper low moves offshore. The gusty offshore winds and dry conditions could potentially support localized fire-weather conditions through the weekend and into early next week. ...Thunderstorms... A sub-tropical air mass associated with the remnants of TS Mario over the eastern Pacific will overspread much of the West beginning the middle of this week. Accompanying the increase in moisture, strong southwesterly flow should also overspread the West Coast. This should favor scattered, primarily wet thunderstorms into the weekend across southern and central CA. Wetting rainfall potential appears high with PWATS near or exceeding 1 inch at times, which should temper area fuels. Farther north across northern CA and southern OR into the northern Great Basin, drier conditions at the fringes of the moisture surge could favor higher cloud bases and a greater risk for dry lightning through the weekend. The previous warming and drying episode could also allow fuels to be more receptive. However, model guidance continues to vary substantially on the thunderstorm threat and no probabilities will be assessed until a greater agreement in guidance is reached. ..Lyons.. 09/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0455 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z Shortwave ridging will rapidly build over the western US through midweek while aloft, an upper low will gradually strengthen over the East. There after, the upper-level flow pattern will gradually transition to stronger semi-zonal flow. Warm and dry conditions are likely initially, potentially followed by stronger winds and an increase in thunderstorm potential over the West through this weekend and into early next week. ...Northwest... High pressure will briefly build over the Northwest behind the upper low over the central US through the remainder of this week. This should support a significant warming trend and some fuel drying in response. Gusty west winds are also possible as a lee/thermal trough develops D3/Thursday. Later into the weekend, strong zonal flow will return, potentially supporting dry downslope conditions over the western Columbia Basin. This seem especially likely D5/Saturday and through the remainder of the weekend. With fuels expected to dry, some increase in fire-weather threat is possible into early next week as zonal flow continues. ...Eastern US... Warm and dry conditions are expected over much of the eastern/southeastern US through the extended forecast period. However, winds are expected to remain modest with high pressure in place. Area fuels will continue to dry with ongoing drought. Some potential for gusty northwest winds may develop D4/Friday through the weekend behind a cold front over the Northeast as the upper low moves offshore. The gusty offshore winds and dry conditions could potentially support localized fire-weather conditions through the weekend and into early next week. ...Thunderstorms... A sub-tropical air mass associated with the remnants of TS Mario over the eastern Pacific will overspread much of the West beginning the middle of this week. Accompanying the increase in moisture, strong southwesterly flow should also overspread the West Coast. This should favor scattered, primarily wet thunderstorms into the weekend across southern and central CA. Wetting rainfall potential appears high with PWATS near or exceeding 1 inch at times, which should temper area fuels. Farther north across northern CA and southern OR into the northern Great Basin, drier conditions at the fringes of the moisture surge could favor higher cloud bases and a greater risk for dry lightning through the weekend. The previous warming and drying episode could also allow fuels to be more receptive. However, model guidance continues to vary substantially on the thunderstorm threat and no probabilities will be assessed until a greater agreement in guidance is reached. ..Lyons.. 09/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0455 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z Shortwave ridging will rapidly build over the western US through midweek while aloft, an upper low will gradually strengthen over the East. There after, the upper-level flow pattern will gradually transition to stronger semi-zonal flow. Warm and dry conditions are likely initially, potentially followed by stronger winds and an increase in thunderstorm potential over the West through this weekend and into early next week. ...Northwest... High pressure will briefly build over the Northwest behind the upper low over the central US through the remainder of this week. This should support a significant warming trend and some fuel drying in response. Gusty west winds are also possible as a lee/thermal trough develops D3/Thursday. Later into the weekend, strong zonal flow will return, potentially supporting dry downslope conditions over the western Columbia Basin. This seem especially likely D5/Saturday and through the remainder of the weekend. With fuels expected to dry, some increase in fire-weather threat is possible into early next week as zonal flow continues. ...Eastern US... Warm and dry conditions are expected over much of the eastern/southeastern US through the extended forecast period. However, winds are expected to remain modest with high pressure in place. Area fuels will continue to dry with ongoing drought. Some potential for gusty northwest winds may develop D4/Friday through the weekend behind a cold front over the Northeast as the upper low moves offshore. The gusty offshore winds and dry conditions could potentially support localized fire-weather conditions through the weekend and into early next week. ...Thunderstorms... A sub-tropical air mass associated with the remnants of TS Mario over the eastern Pacific will overspread much of the West beginning the middle of this week. Accompanying the increase in moisture, strong southwesterly flow should also overspread the West Coast. This should favor scattered, primarily wet thunderstorms into the weekend across southern and central CA. Wetting rainfall potential appears high with PWATS near or exceeding 1 inch at times, which should temper area fuels. Farther north across northern CA and southern OR into the northern Great Basin, drier conditions at the fringes of the moisture surge could favor higher cloud bases and a greater risk for dry lightning through the weekend. The previous warming and drying episode could also allow fuels to be more receptive. However, model guidance continues to vary substantially on the thunderstorm threat and no probabilities will be assessed until a greater agreement in guidance is reached. ..Lyons.. 09/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0455 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z Shortwave ridging will rapidly build over the western US through midweek while aloft, an upper low will gradually strengthen over the East. There after, the upper-level flow pattern will gradually transition to stronger semi-zonal flow. Warm and dry conditions are likely initially, potentially followed by stronger winds and an increase in thunderstorm potential over the West through this weekend and into early next week. ...Northwest... High pressure will briefly build over the Northwest behind the upper low over the central US through the remainder of this week. This should support a significant warming trend and some fuel drying in response. Gusty west winds are also possible as a lee/thermal trough develops D3/Thursday. Later into the weekend, strong zonal flow will return, potentially supporting dry downslope conditions over the western Columbia Basin. This seem especially likely D5/Saturday and through the remainder of the weekend. With fuels expected to dry, some increase in fire-weather threat is possible into early next week as zonal flow continues. ...Eastern US... Warm and dry conditions are expected over much of the eastern/southeastern US through the extended forecast period. However, winds are expected to remain modest with high pressure in place. Area fuels will continue to dry with ongoing drought. Some potential for gusty northwest winds may develop D4/Friday through the weekend behind a cold front over the Northeast as the upper low moves offshore. The gusty offshore winds and dry conditions could potentially support localized fire-weather conditions through the weekend and into early next week. ...Thunderstorms... A sub-tropical air mass associated with the remnants of TS Mario over the eastern Pacific will overspread much of the West beginning the middle of this week. Accompanying the increase in moisture, strong southwesterly flow should also overspread the West Coast. This should favor scattered, primarily wet thunderstorms into the weekend across southern and central CA. Wetting rainfall potential appears high with PWATS near or exceeding 1 inch at times, which should temper area fuels. Farther north across northern CA and southern OR into the northern Great Basin, drier conditions at the fringes of the moisture surge could favor higher cloud bases and a greater risk for dry lightning through the weekend. The previous warming and drying episode could also allow fuels to be more receptive. However, model guidance continues to vary substantially on the thunderstorm threat and no probabilities will be assessed until a greater agreement in guidance is reached. ..Lyons.. 09/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0455 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z Shortwave ridging will rapidly build over the western US through midweek while aloft, an upper low will gradually strengthen over the East. There after, the upper-level flow pattern will gradually transition to stronger semi-zonal flow. Warm and dry conditions are likely initially, potentially followed by stronger winds and an increase in thunderstorm potential over the West through this weekend and into early next week. ...Northwest... High pressure will briefly build over the Northwest behind the upper low over the central US through the remainder of this week. This should support a significant warming trend and some fuel drying in response. Gusty west winds are also possible as a lee/thermal trough develops D3/Thursday. Later into the weekend, strong zonal flow will return, potentially supporting dry downslope conditions over the western Columbia Basin. This seem especially likely D5/Saturday and through the remainder of the weekend. With fuels expected to dry, some increase in fire-weather threat is possible into early next week as zonal flow continues. ...Eastern US... Warm and dry conditions are expected over much of the eastern/southeastern US through the extended forecast period. However, winds are expected to remain modest with high pressure in place. Area fuels will continue to dry with ongoing drought. Some potential for gusty northwest winds may develop D4/Friday through the weekend behind a cold front over the Northeast as the upper low moves offshore. The gusty offshore winds and dry conditions could potentially support localized fire-weather conditions through the weekend and into early next week. ...Thunderstorms... A sub-tropical air mass associated with the remnants of TS Mario over the eastern Pacific will overspread much of the West beginning the middle of this week. Accompanying the increase in moisture, strong southwesterly flow should also overspread the West Coast. This should favor scattered, primarily wet thunderstorms into the weekend across southern and central CA. Wetting rainfall potential appears high with PWATS near or exceeding 1 inch at times, which should temper area fuels. Farther north across northern CA and southern OR into the northern Great Basin, drier conditions at the fringes of the moisture surge could favor higher cloud bases and a greater risk for dry lightning through the weekend. The previous warming and drying episode could also allow fuels to be more receptive. However, model guidance continues to vary substantially on the thunderstorm threat and no probabilities will be assessed until a greater agreement in guidance is reached. ..Lyons.. 09/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0455 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z Shortwave ridging will rapidly build over the western US through midweek while aloft, an upper low will gradually strengthen over the East. There after, the upper-level flow pattern will gradually transition to stronger semi-zonal flow. Warm and dry conditions are likely initially, potentially followed by stronger winds and an increase in thunderstorm potential over the West through this weekend and into early next week. ...Northwest... High pressure will briefly build over the Northwest behind the upper low over the central US through the remainder of this week. This should support a significant warming trend and some fuel drying in response. Gusty west winds are also possible as a lee/thermal trough develops D3/Thursday. Later into the weekend, strong zonal flow will return, potentially supporting dry downslope conditions over the western Columbia Basin. This seem especially likely D5/Saturday and through the remainder of the weekend. With fuels expected to dry, some increase in fire-weather threat is possible into early next week as zonal flow continues. ...Eastern US... Warm and dry conditions are expected over much of the eastern/southeastern US through the extended forecast period. However, winds are expected to remain modest with high pressure in place. Area fuels will continue to dry with ongoing drought. Some potential for gusty northwest winds may develop D4/Friday through the weekend behind a cold front over the Northeast as the upper low moves offshore. The gusty offshore winds and dry conditions could potentially support localized fire-weather conditions through the weekend and into early next week. ...Thunderstorms... A sub-tropical air mass associated with the remnants of TS Mario over the eastern Pacific will overspread much of the West beginning the middle of this week. Accompanying the increase in moisture, strong southwesterly flow should also overspread the West Coast. This should favor scattered, primarily wet thunderstorms into the weekend across southern and central CA. Wetting rainfall potential appears high with PWATS near or exceeding 1 inch at times, which should temper area fuels. Farther north across northern CA and southern OR into the northern Great Basin, drier conditions at the fringes of the moisture surge could favor higher cloud bases and a greater risk for dry lightning through the weekend. The previous warming and drying episode could also allow fuels to be more receptive. However, model guidance continues to vary substantially on the thunderstorm threat and no probabilities will be assessed until a greater agreement in guidance is reached. ..Lyons.. 09/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

Wells were running dry in New Hampshire where almost half of the state depends on private wells for water. Conditions were worst in the north of the state. State officials were warning the public to begin conserving water by foregoing the lawn watering, car washing and lengthy showers before more wells run dry. A well and pump business in Epping was receiving many more calls than usual from homeowners whose wells had run dry. WMUR-TV ABC 9 Manchester (N.H.), Sep 16, 2025

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Sep 16 21:30:20 UTC 2025.

The PGA Tour announced that it will not hold The Sentry at the Plantation Course at Kapalua due to the parched state of the course. “Following discussions with the Governor’s office, as well as leadership from Sentry Insurance, Kapalua Resort and Maui County, the PGA Tour has determined the 2026 playing of The Sentry will not be contested at The Plantation Course at Kapalua due to ongoing drought conditions, water conservation requirements, agronomic conditions and logistical challenges,” the PGA Tour said in an emailed statement. Maui Now (Kahului, Hawaii), Sep 16, 2025

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 16 Sep 2025 20:33:07 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 16 Sep 2025 21:21:18 GMT

MD 2085 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR WEST-CENTRAL NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EXTREME NORTHEAST COLORADO
Mesoscale Discussion 2085 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025 Areas affected...west-central Nebraska...northwest Kansas and extreme northeast Colorado Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 161926Z - 162130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Severe storms producing damaging winds and localized hail appear likely late this afternoon and evening. DISCUSSION...Strong heating near the surface trough and beneath cool midlevel temperatures has led to a very unstable air mass for this time of year over western NE, though overall shear profiles are weak. Ongoing storms over northwest NE are likely to extend southward over the next few hours. Hail may occur with initial development but the primary risk should be severe winds. Locally stronger shear does exist in the vicinity of far northeast CO where surface winds are backed near the boundary and on the nose of the low-level theta-e plume. A supercell or two may occur in this region prior to larger-scale mergers/wind threat. ..Jewell/Guyer.. 09/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU... LAT...LON 40180031 39840075 39720142 39680212 39920270 40110281 40290280 41300205 41870189 42340191 42560175 42600145 42740096 42480028 41809982 40949996 40180031 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more