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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will meander over the Rockies while another upper trough impinges on the West Coast and upper ridging persists over the Mississippi Valley today. Surface high pressure will become established over the Rockies, promoting relatively quiescent fire weather conditions over the Interior West. Meanwhile, a dry low-level airmass will continue to linger over the Ohio Valley, where fuels have been gradually drying. Surface winds appear too weak to support widespread, significant wildfire growth potential, though localized wildfire conditions are a concern where stronger gusts may overspread dry fuel beds. ..Squitieri.. 09/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will meander over the Rockies while another upper trough impinges on the West Coast and upper ridging persists over the Mississippi Valley today. Surface high pressure will become established over the Rockies, promoting relatively quiescent fire weather conditions over the Interior West. Meanwhile, a dry low-level airmass will continue to linger over the Ohio Valley, where fuels have been gradually drying. Surface winds appear too weak to support widespread, significant wildfire growth potential, though localized wildfire conditions are a concern where stronger gusts may overspread dry fuel beds. ..Squitieri.. 09/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will meander over the Rockies while another upper trough impinges on the West Coast and upper ridging persists over the Mississippi Valley today. Surface high pressure will become established over the Rockies, promoting relatively quiescent fire weather conditions over the Interior West. Meanwhile, a dry low-level airmass will continue to linger over the Ohio Valley, where fuels have been gradually drying. Surface winds appear too weak to support widespread, significant wildfire growth potential, though localized wildfire conditions are a concern where stronger gusts may overspread dry fuel beds. ..Squitieri.. 09/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will meander over the Rockies while another upper trough impinges on the West Coast and upper ridging persists over the Mississippi Valley today. Surface high pressure will become established over the Rockies, promoting relatively quiescent fire weather conditions over the Interior West. Meanwhile, a dry low-level airmass will continue to linger over the Ohio Valley, where fuels have been gradually drying. Surface winds appear too weak to support widespread, significant wildfire growth potential, though localized wildfire conditions are a concern where stronger gusts may overspread dry fuel beds. ..Squitieri.. 09/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0131 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... An upper trough oriented from the northern Plains to the Ozarks will shift east toward the Upper Midwest and Mid-MS Valley on Friday. Deep layer flow will remain light, and vertical shear is forecast to be weak. While 60s F dewpoints will be in place from the Sabine Valley north into IA, northern IL, and southern MN/WI, generally poor lapse rates, and cooler surface temperatures from MO northward, will limit stronger destabilization. Scattered diurnal thunderstorms will be possible across the central U.S., but overall severe potential appears low. ..Leitman.. 09/17/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0131 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... An upper trough oriented from the northern Plains to the Ozarks will shift east toward the Upper Midwest and Mid-MS Valley on Friday. Deep layer flow will remain light, and vertical shear is forecast to be weak. While 60s F dewpoints will be in place from the Sabine Valley north into IA, northern IL, and southern MN/WI, generally poor lapse rates, and cooler surface temperatures from MO northward, will limit stronger destabilization. Scattered diurnal thunderstorms will be possible across the central U.S., but overall severe potential appears low. ..Leitman.. 09/17/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0131 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... An upper trough oriented from the northern Plains to the Ozarks will shift east toward the Upper Midwest and Mid-MS Valley on Friday. Deep layer flow will remain light, and vertical shear is forecast to be weak. While 60s F dewpoints will be in place from the Sabine Valley north into IA, northern IL, and southern MN/WI, generally poor lapse rates, and cooler surface temperatures from MO northward, will limit stronger destabilization. Scattered diurnal thunderstorms will be possible across the central U.S., but overall severe potential appears low. ..Leitman.. 09/17/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0131 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... An upper trough oriented from the northern Plains to the Ozarks will shift east toward the Upper Midwest and Mid-MS Valley on Friday. Deep layer flow will remain light, and vertical shear is forecast to be weak. While 60s F dewpoints will be in place from the Sabine Valley north into IA, northern IL, and southern MN/WI, generally poor lapse rates, and cooler surface temperatures from MO northward, will limit stronger destabilization. Scattered diurnal thunderstorms will be possible across the central U.S., but overall severe potential appears low. ..Leitman.. 09/17/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0131 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... An upper trough oriented from the northern Plains to the Ozarks will shift east toward the Upper Midwest and Mid-MS Valley on Friday. Deep layer flow will remain light, and vertical shear is forecast to be weak. While 60s F dewpoints will be in place from the Sabine Valley north into IA, northern IL, and southern MN/WI, generally poor lapse rates, and cooler surface temperatures from MO northward, will limit stronger destabilization. Scattered diurnal thunderstorms will be possible across the central U.S., but overall severe potential appears low. ..Leitman.. 09/17/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Thursday. ...Synopsis... An upper low will persist over the northern Plains while an attendant shortwave trough moves across the central Plains toward the Mid/Lower MO Valley vicinity on Thursday. At the surface, weak low pressure will be in place across eastern portions of the Plains into the MO/MS Valley vicinity. Upper 50s to mid-60s F dewpoints will persist across the eastern Plains to the Ozarks and northern into parts of the Upper Midwest. This will support pockets of weak to moderate destabilization, particularly across eastern OK/KS into the Ozarks, and northward into IA. Scattered diurnal thunderstorm activity will develop within this modest moisture and instability. However, nebulous forcing for ascent, weak vertical shear, and generally poor lapse rates will preclude organized severe potential. ..Leitman.. 09/17/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Thursday. ...Synopsis... An upper low will persist over the northern Plains while an attendant shortwave trough moves across the central Plains toward the Mid/Lower MO Valley vicinity on Thursday. At the surface, weak low pressure will be in place across eastern portions of the Plains into the MO/MS Valley vicinity. Upper 50s to mid-60s F dewpoints will persist across the eastern Plains to the Ozarks and northern into parts of the Upper Midwest. This will support pockets of weak to moderate destabilization, particularly across eastern OK/KS into the Ozarks, and northward into IA. Scattered diurnal thunderstorm activity will develop within this modest moisture and instability. However, nebulous forcing for ascent, weak vertical shear, and generally poor lapse rates will preclude organized severe potential. ..Leitman.. 09/17/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Thursday. ...Synopsis... An upper low will persist over the northern Plains while an attendant shortwave trough moves across the central Plains toward the Mid/Lower MO Valley vicinity on Thursday. At the surface, weak low pressure will be in place across eastern portions of the Plains into the MO/MS Valley vicinity. Upper 50s to mid-60s F dewpoints will persist across the eastern Plains to the Ozarks and northern into parts of the Upper Midwest. This will support pockets of weak to moderate destabilization, particularly across eastern OK/KS into the Ozarks, and northward into IA. Scattered diurnal thunderstorm activity will develop within this modest moisture and instability. However, nebulous forcing for ascent, weak vertical shear, and generally poor lapse rates will preclude organized severe potential. ..Leitman.. 09/17/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Thursday. ...Synopsis... An upper low will persist over the northern Plains while an attendant shortwave trough moves across the central Plains toward the Mid/Lower MO Valley vicinity on Thursday. At the surface, weak low pressure will be in place across eastern portions of the Plains into the MO/MS Valley vicinity. Upper 50s to mid-60s F dewpoints will persist across the eastern Plains to the Ozarks and northern into parts of the Upper Midwest. This will support pockets of weak to moderate destabilization, particularly across eastern OK/KS into the Ozarks, and northward into IA. Scattered diurnal thunderstorm activity will develop within this modest moisture and instability. However, nebulous forcing for ascent, weak vertical shear, and generally poor lapse rates will preclude organized severe potential. ..Leitman.. 09/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible, mainly during late afternoon to mid-evening, across parts of the south-central High and Great Plains. The most likely corridor is over the Raton Mesa, where large hail, severe gusts, and a brief tornado are possible. ...South-central High Plains to southern KS/northwest OK... An upper-level jetlet will become centered across the southern Rockies/Sangre de Cristo Mountains this afternoon, south of multiple shortwave impulses drifting across the central Rockies and Great Plains. Overnight convection should aid in a consolidated outflow/cold front arcing from parts of KS to the Raton Mesa vicinity. Post-frontal upslope flow will aid in a moist airmass with a lobe of weak to moderate buoyancy banked to the I-25 corridor in southeast CO. Robust boundary-layer heating will occur in the progressively drier/more well-mixed air mass with southern extent in the southern High Plains to OK. Initial thunderstorm development will occur along the higher terrain by mid-afternoon and spread east-southeast into the evening. Additional storms should also form along the arcing front/outflow towards northwest OK/south-central KS. Convection near the Raton Mesa will be characterized by a spatially confined but favorable wind profile for a longer-lived supercell or two. A swath of large hail should be the primary hazard, with a brief tornado and localized severe gusts also possible. Overall severe threat should diminish after dusk with negative theta-e advection from the south. ...Central/eastern NE and northern KS... Moderate mid-level southwesterlies should remain confined to the central Great Plains, attendant to a shortwave impulse drifting from CO/WY to NE/SD. Confidence is very low in whether this flow regime will overlap adequate airmass recovery in the wake of extensive convective overturning this morning. Some degree of recovery might occur by late afternoon, mainly supportive of a marginal severe hail threat. But given the conditionality, will defer to later outlooks for a possible highlight. ...Western MO to northern WI... Larger buoyancy ahead of ongoing outflow in IA to KS should be relegated to a confined corridor, displaced east within a predominately weak deep-layer shear regime. This suggests more of a pulse-type strong-storm threat during peak heating in this region. ..Grams/Squitieri.. 09/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible, mainly during late afternoon to mid-evening, across parts of the south-central High and Great Plains. The most likely corridor is over the Raton Mesa, where large hail, severe gusts, and a brief tornado are possible. ...South-central High Plains to southern KS/northwest OK... An upper-level jetlet will become centered across the southern Rockies/Sangre de Cristo Mountains this afternoon, south of multiple shortwave impulses drifting across the central Rockies and Great Plains. Overnight convection should aid in a consolidated outflow/cold front arcing from parts of KS to the Raton Mesa vicinity. Post-frontal upslope flow will aid in a moist airmass with a lobe of weak to moderate buoyancy banked to the I-25 corridor in southeast CO. Robust boundary-layer heating will occur in the progressively drier/more well-mixed air mass with southern extent in the southern High Plains to OK. Initial thunderstorm development will occur along the higher terrain by mid-afternoon and spread east-southeast into the evening. Additional storms should also form along the arcing front/outflow towards northwest OK/south-central KS. Convection near the Raton Mesa will be characterized by a spatially confined but favorable wind profile for a longer-lived supercell or two. A swath of large hail should be the primary hazard, with a brief tornado and localized severe gusts also possible. Overall severe threat should diminish after dusk with negative theta-e advection from the south. ...Central/eastern NE and northern KS... Moderate mid-level southwesterlies should remain confined to the central Great Plains, attendant to a shortwave impulse drifting from CO/WY to NE/SD. Confidence is very low in whether this flow regime will overlap adequate airmass recovery in the wake of extensive convective overturning this morning. Some degree of recovery might occur by late afternoon, mainly supportive of a marginal severe hail threat. But given the conditionality, will defer to later outlooks for a possible highlight. ...Western MO to northern WI... Larger buoyancy ahead of ongoing outflow in IA to KS should be relegated to a confined corridor, displaced east within a predominately weak deep-layer shear regime. This suggests more of a pulse-type strong-storm threat during peak heating in this region. ..Grams/Squitieri.. 09/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible, mainly during late afternoon to mid-evening, across parts of the south-central High and Great Plains. The most likely corridor is over the Raton Mesa, where large hail, severe gusts, and a brief tornado are possible. ...South-central High Plains to southern KS/northwest OK... An upper-level jetlet will become centered across the southern Rockies/Sangre de Cristo Mountains this afternoon, south of multiple shortwave impulses drifting across the central Rockies and Great Plains. Overnight convection should aid in a consolidated outflow/cold front arcing from parts of KS to the Raton Mesa vicinity. Post-frontal upslope flow will aid in a moist airmass with a lobe of weak to moderate buoyancy banked to the I-25 corridor in southeast CO. Robust boundary-layer heating will occur in the progressively drier/more well-mixed air mass with southern extent in the southern High Plains to OK. Initial thunderstorm development will occur along the higher terrain by mid-afternoon and spread east-southeast into the evening. Additional storms should also form along the arcing front/outflow towards northwest OK/south-central KS. Convection near the Raton Mesa will be characterized by a spatially confined but favorable wind profile for a longer-lived supercell or two. A swath of large hail should be the primary hazard, with a brief tornado and localized severe gusts also possible. Overall severe threat should diminish after dusk with negative theta-e advection from the south. ...Central/eastern NE and northern KS... Moderate mid-level southwesterlies should remain confined to the central Great Plains, attendant to a shortwave impulse drifting from CO/WY to NE/SD. Confidence is very low in whether this flow regime will overlap adequate airmass recovery in the wake of extensive convective overturning this morning. Some degree of recovery might occur by late afternoon, mainly supportive of a marginal severe hail threat. But given the conditionality, will defer to later outlooks for a possible highlight. ...Western MO to northern WI... Larger buoyancy ahead of ongoing outflow in IA to KS should be relegated to a confined corridor, displaced east within a predominately weak deep-layer shear regime. This suggests more of a pulse-type strong-storm threat during peak heating in this region. ..Grams/Squitieri.. 09/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible, mainly during late afternoon to mid-evening, across parts of the south-central High and Great Plains. The most likely corridor is over the Raton Mesa, where large hail, severe gusts, and a brief tornado are possible. ...South-central High Plains to southern KS/northwest OK... An upper-level jetlet will become centered across the southern Rockies/Sangre de Cristo Mountains this afternoon, south of multiple shortwave impulses drifting across the central Rockies and Great Plains. Overnight convection should aid in a consolidated outflow/cold front arcing from parts of KS to the Raton Mesa vicinity. Post-frontal upslope flow will aid in a moist airmass with a lobe of weak to moderate buoyancy banked to the I-25 corridor in southeast CO. Robust boundary-layer heating will occur in the progressively drier/more well-mixed air mass with southern extent in the southern High Plains to OK. Initial thunderstorm development will occur along the higher terrain by mid-afternoon and spread east-southeast into the evening. Additional storms should also form along the arcing front/outflow towards northwest OK/south-central KS. Convection near the Raton Mesa will be characterized by a spatially confined but favorable wind profile for a longer-lived supercell or two. A swath of large hail should be the primary hazard, with a brief tornado and localized severe gusts also possible. Overall severe threat should diminish after dusk with negative theta-e advection from the south. ...Central/eastern NE and northern KS... Moderate mid-level southwesterlies should remain confined to the central Great Plains, attendant to a shortwave impulse drifting from CO/WY to NE/SD. Confidence is very low in whether this flow regime will overlap adequate airmass recovery in the wake of extensive convective overturning this morning. Some degree of recovery might occur by late afternoon, mainly supportive of a marginal severe hail threat. But given the conditionality, will defer to later outlooks for a possible highlight. ...Western MO to northern WI... Larger buoyancy ahead of ongoing outflow in IA to KS should be relegated to a confined corridor, displaced east within a predominately weak deep-layer shear regime. This suggests more of a pulse-type strong-storm threat during peak heating in this region. ..Grams/Squitieri.. 09/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible, mainly during late afternoon to mid-evening, across parts of the south-central High and Great Plains. The most likely corridor is over the Raton Mesa, where large hail, severe gusts, and a brief tornado are possible. ...South-central High Plains to southern KS/northwest OK... An upper-level jetlet will become centered across the southern Rockies/Sangre de Cristo Mountains this afternoon, south of multiple shortwave impulses drifting across the central Rockies and Great Plains. Overnight convection should aid in a consolidated outflow/cold front arcing from parts of KS to the Raton Mesa vicinity. Post-frontal upslope flow will aid in a moist airmass with a lobe of weak to moderate buoyancy banked to the I-25 corridor in southeast CO. Robust boundary-layer heating will occur in the progressively drier/more well-mixed air mass with southern extent in the southern High Plains to OK. Initial thunderstorm development will occur along the higher terrain by mid-afternoon and spread east-southeast into the evening. Additional storms should also form along the arcing front/outflow towards northwest OK/south-central KS. Convection near the Raton Mesa will be characterized by a spatially confined but favorable wind profile for a longer-lived supercell or two. A swath of large hail should be the primary hazard, with a brief tornado and localized severe gusts also possible. Overall severe threat should diminish after dusk with negative theta-e advection from the south. ...Central/eastern NE and northern KS... Moderate mid-level southwesterlies should remain confined to the central Great Plains, attendant to a shortwave impulse drifting from CO/WY to NE/SD. Confidence is very low in whether this flow regime will overlap adequate airmass recovery in the wake of extensive convective overturning this morning. Some degree of recovery might occur by late afternoon, mainly supportive of a marginal severe hail threat. But given the conditionality, will defer to later outlooks for a possible highlight. ...Western MO to northern WI... Larger buoyancy ahead of ongoing outflow in IA to KS should be relegated to a confined corridor, displaced east within a predominately weak deep-layer shear regime. This suggests more of a pulse-type strong-storm threat during peak heating in this region. ..Grams/Squitieri.. 09/17/2025 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 170506
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Tue Sep 16 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on
Post-Tropical Cyclone Mario, located several hundred miles west of
the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula.

Off the Coast of Southwestern Mexico (EP96):
A broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles off the
coast of southwestern Mexico is producing a large area of showers
and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
gradual development of this broad system, and a tropical depression
is likely to form in a couple of days while it moves
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the central portion of the
east Pacific.
*Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
*Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

Del-Co Water customers were urged to conserve water as drought persisted. A mandatory watering schedule was issued on Sept. 17 to encourage a reduction in lawn watering as demand exceeded the system’s ability to pump water and keep tanks filled. The Columbus Dispatch (Ohio), Sep 17, 2025