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5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 16 Sep 2025 08:39:27 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 16 Sep 2025 09:21:23 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 16 Sep 2025 08:39:27 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 16 Sep 2025 09:21:21 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 16 Sep 2025 08:39:27 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 16 Sep 2025 08:39:27 GMT

Issued at 200 AM PDT Tue Sep 16 2025 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 160839 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Mario Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132025 200 AM PDT Tue Sep 16 2025 After going a few hours with limited convection, Mario has had a recent convective burst near its estimated center. Its structure overall seems to be gradually degrading, with little in the way of banding features, and it appears the tropical cyclone is slowly succumbing to the increasingly negative thermodynamic conditions. Both subjective and objective intensity estimates have been decreasing, and the initial intensity will follow suit, lowering to 45 kt this advisory. Without much recent microwave or scatterometer data to go on, the estimated motion remains a somewhat uncertain 310/10 kt. Mario should continue to move along the western periphery of a mid-level ridge centered over northern Mexico for the next day or so, but will slow down as it loses its vertical structure. By the end of the forecast the shallow low-level circulation will likely drift very slowly. The latest track forecast is slightly west of the previous one after 24 hours, electing to remain close to a blend of the latest HCCA and GDMI guidance aids. Mario is now crossing the 26 degree C sea-surface temperature isotherm and cooler waters lie ahead, in addition to a stable dry atmosphere and increasing southwesterly shear. Thus, weakening should continue, and Mario is likely to lose all of its organized convection in about 24 hours as its mid-level circulation decouples and continues propagating off to the north. The small remnant low left behind should open up into a trough in 60-72 h. This forecast is in good agreement with the intensity guidance aid envelope. While Mario is forecast to dissipate as a tropical cyclone well to the south of California, its remnant mid-level moisture will likely spread further north, affecting portions of southern California and Baja California later this week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0900Z 21.9N 115.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 16/1800Z 23.2N 117.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 17/0600Z 24.6N 118.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 17/1800Z 25.6N 119.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 18/0600Z 26.3N 120.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 18/1800Z 26.7N 120.2W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 16 2025 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 160838 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM MARIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132025 0900 UTC TUE SEP 16 2025 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 25N 120W 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

Issued at 200 AM PDT Tue Sep 16 2025 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 160838 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Mario Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132025 200 AM PDT Tue Sep 16 2025 ...MARIO WEAKENING AND ITS TIME IS FLEETING AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.9N 115.7W ABOUT 375 MI...605 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Mario was located near latitude 21.9 North, longitude 115.7 West. Mario is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this general motion with a decrease in forward speed is forecast during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast, and Mario is expected to become a remnant low in a day or so. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Papin

...MARIO WEAKENING AND ITS TIME IS FLEETING AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE... As of 2:00 AM PDT Tue Sep 16 the center of Mario was located near 21.9, -115.7 with movement NW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 16 2025 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 160837 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM MARIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132025 0900 UTC TUE SEP 16 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 115.7W AT 16/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 35 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 4 M SEAS.... 60NE 45SE 30SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 115.7W AT 16/0900Z AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 115.5W FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 23.2N 117.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 24.6N 118.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 25.6N 119.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 26.3N 120.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 26.7N 120.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.9N 115.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0309 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe thunderstorm potential is expected to remain low through at least Day 6/Sun. A shortwave upper trough over the north-central U.S. will slowly migrate east across the Great Lakes region through the weekend. Weak deep layer flow and limited large-scale ascent will preclude severe thunderstorms. By the end of the period, around Days 7-8/Mon-Tue, medium range guidance suggests a more substantial upper trough will eject from the northern Rockies and deepen over the Plains/Midwest as a stronger surface cold front moves through the central portions of the CONUS. This could support some increasing severe thunderstorm potential, but large spread remains across various forecast guidance regarding timing and evolution of this feature as it develops east of the Rockies early next week. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0309 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe thunderstorm potential is expected to remain low through at least Day 6/Sun. A shortwave upper trough over the north-central U.S. will slowly migrate east across the Great Lakes region through the weekend. Weak deep layer flow and limited large-scale ascent will preclude severe thunderstorms. By the end of the period, around Days 7-8/Mon-Tue, medium range guidance suggests a more substantial upper trough will eject from the northern Rockies and deepen over the Plains/Midwest as a stronger surface cold front moves through the central portions of the CONUS. This could support some increasing severe thunderstorm potential, but large spread remains across various forecast guidance regarding timing and evolution of this feature as it develops east of the Rockies early next week. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0309 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe thunderstorm potential is expected to remain low through at least Day 6/Sun. A shortwave upper trough over the north-central U.S. will slowly migrate east across the Great Lakes region through the weekend. Weak deep layer flow and limited large-scale ascent will preclude severe thunderstorms. By the end of the period, around Days 7-8/Mon-Tue, medium range guidance suggests a more substantial upper trough will eject from the northern Rockies and deepen over the Plains/Midwest as a stronger surface cold front moves through the central portions of the CONUS. This could support some increasing severe thunderstorm potential, but large spread remains across various forecast guidance regarding timing and evolution of this feature as it develops east of the Rockies early next week. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0309 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe thunderstorm potential is expected to remain low through at least Day 6/Sun. A shortwave upper trough over the north-central U.S. will slowly migrate east across the Great Lakes region through the weekend. Weak deep layer flow and limited large-scale ascent will preclude severe thunderstorms. By the end of the period, around Days 7-8/Mon-Tue, medium range guidance suggests a more substantial upper trough will eject from the northern Rockies and deepen over the Plains/Midwest as a stronger surface cold front moves through the central portions of the CONUS. This could support some increasing severe thunderstorm potential, but large spread remains across various forecast guidance regarding timing and evolution of this feature as it develops east of the Rockies early next week. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0309 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe thunderstorm potential is expected to remain low through at least Day 6/Sun. A shortwave upper trough over the north-central U.S. will slowly migrate east across the Great Lakes region through the weekend. Weak deep layer flow and limited large-scale ascent will preclude severe thunderstorms. By the end of the period, around Days 7-8/Mon-Tue, medium range guidance suggests a more substantial upper trough will eject from the northern Rockies and deepen over the Plains/Midwest as a stronger surface cold front moves through the central portions of the CONUS. This could support some increasing severe thunderstorm potential, but large spread remains across various forecast guidance regarding timing and evolution of this feature as it develops east of the Rockies early next week. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... An upper low will persist over eastern MT/WY with an attendant shortwave trough extending into the central/southern Plains on Thursday. A lack of stronger height falls will preclude much in the way of surface cyclogenesis, with generally broad, weak surface low pressure extending across eastern portions of the Plains into the MO/MS Valley vicinity. Upper 50s to mid 60s F dewpoints will be in place from portions of the southern Plains into the Ozarks and northward to the Upper Midwest. Pockets of weak to moderate instability will foster scattered thunderstorm activity within this zone, but severe potential should remain limited given nebulous forcing for ascent, weak vertical shear and poor lapse rates. ..Leitman.. 09/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... An upper low will persist over eastern MT/WY with an attendant shortwave trough extending into the central/southern Plains on Thursday. A lack of stronger height falls will preclude much in the way of surface cyclogenesis, with generally broad, weak surface low pressure extending across eastern portions of the Plains into the MO/MS Valley vicinity. Upper 50s to mid 60s F dewpoints will be in place from portions of the southern Plains into the Ozarks and northward to the Upper Midwest. Pockets of weak to moderate instability will foster scattered thunderstorm activity within this zone, but severe potential should remain limited given nebulous forcing for ascent, weak vertical shear and poor lapse rates. ..Leitman.. 09/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... An upper low will persist over eastern MT/WY with an attendant shortwave trough extending into the central/southern Plains on Thursday. A lack of stronger height falls will preclude much in the way of surface cyclogenesis, with generally broad, weak surface low pressure extending across eastern portions of the Plains into the MO/MS Valley vicinity. Upper 50s to mid 60s F dewpoints will be in place from portions of the southern Plains into the Ozarks and northward to the Upper Midwest. Pockets of weak to moderate instability will foster scattered thunderstorm activity within this zone, but severe potential should remain limited given nebulous forcing for ascent, weak vertical shear and poor lapse rates. ..Leitman.. 09/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... An upper low will persist over eastern MT/WY with an attendant shortwave trough extending into the central/southern Plains on Thursday. A lack of stronger height falls will preclude much in the way of surface cyclogenesis, with generally broad, weak surface low pressure extending across eastern portions of the Plains into the MO/MS Valley vicinity. Upper 50s to mid 60s F dewpoints will be in place from portions of the southern Plains into the Ozarks and northward to the Upper Midwest. Pockets of weak to moderate instability will foster scattered thunderstorm activity within this zone, but severe potential should remain limited given nebulous forcing for ascent, weak vertical shear and poor lapse rates. ..Leitman.. 09/16/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure will remain in place over much of the central and northern Rockies due to a stationary mid-level trough over the northern High Plains tomorrow (Wednesday). This synoptic pattern will once again promote mainly quiescent fire weather conditions over much of the Interior west. A dry low-level airmass will also linger over portions of the Ohio Valley, atop drying fuels. However, the lack of stronger surface winds suggests that Elevated highlights are not currently warranted. ..Squitieri.. 09/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure will remain in place over much of the central and northern Rockies due to a stationary mid-level trough over the northern High Plains tomorrow (Wednesday). This synoptic pattern will once again promote mainly quiescent fire weather conditions over much of the Interior west. A dry low-level airmass will also linger over portions of the Ohio Valley, atop drying fuels. However, the lack of stronger surface winds suggests that Elevated highlights are not currently warranted. ..Squitieri.. 09/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure will remain in place over much of the central and northern Rockies due to a stationary mid-level trough over the northern High Plains tomorrow (Wednesday). This synoptic pattern will once again promote mainly quiescent fire weather conditions over much of the Interior west. A dry low-level airmass will also linger over portions of the Ohio Valley, atop drying fuels. However, the lack of stronger surface winds suggests that Elevated highlights are not currently warranted. ..Squitieri.. 09/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more