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MD 2080 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 611... FOR CENTRAL PLAINS
Mesoscale Discussion 2080 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0511 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Areas affected...Central Plains Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 611... Valid 142211Z - 150015Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 611 continues. SUMMARY...Hail/wind threat continues with storms over the central Plains. DISCUSSION...A narrow corridor of strong boundary-layer heating extends across western KS into central NE, immediately ahead of the primary frontal zone. Latest diagnostic data suggests 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE is noted across this portion of the central Plains, coincident with an expanding zone of frontal convection. This activity has recently increased along the leading edge of a notable vort max ejecting northeast, within the base of the larger trough. While deep-layer shear appears more than adequate for sustaining longer-lived rotating updrafts, numerous storm mergers have resulted in a more QLCS-type structure that is advancing slowly east across western portions of ww611. MRMS data suggests at least marginally severe hail is noted with many of these updrafts, and this trend should continue over the next several hours. ..Darrow.. 09/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OAX...ICT...GID...LBF...GLD... LAT...LON 39170102 41750079 41759808 39169841 39170102 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

WW 0610 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 610 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NE ABR TO 30 W JMS TO 55 NE BIS TO 15 SE MOT TO 60 N MOT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2081 ..SQUITIERI..09/15/25 ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 610 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NDC003-005-009-019-027-031-039-045-049-063-069-071-079-093-095- 103-150140- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARNES BENSON BOTTINEAU CAVALIER EDDY FOSTER GRIGGS LAMOURE MCHENRY NELSON PIERCE RAMSEY ROLETTE STUTSMAN TOWNER WELLS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 610 TORNADO ND SD 141805Z - 150200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 610 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 105 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of North Dakota Northern South Dakota * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 105 PM until 900 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...A northward-moving MCV appears likely to aid increasingly favorable conditions for supercells and a related tornado risk along with some hail and damaging wind potential through the afternoon/early evening. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles east and west of a line from 65 miles north northwest of Devils Lake ND to 45 miles east southeast of Mobridge SD. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 18025. ...Guyer Read more

MD 2080 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 611... FOR CENTRAL PLAINS
Mesoscale Discussion 2080 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0511 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Areas affected...Central Plains Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 611... Valid 142211Z - 150015Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 611 continues. SUMMARY...Hail/wind threat continues with storms over the central Plains. DISCUSSION...A narrow corridor of strong boundary-layer heating extends across western KS into central NE, immediately ahead of the primary frontal zone. Latest diagnostic data suggests 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE is noted across this portion of the central Plains, coincident with an expanding zone of frontal convection. This activity has recently increased along the leading edge of a notable vort max ejecting northeast, within the base of the larger trough. While deep-layer shear appears more than adequate for sustaining longer-lived rotating updrafts, numerous storm mergers have resulted in a more QLCS-type structure that is advancing slowly east across western portions of ww611. MRMS data suggests at least marginally severe hail is noted with many of these updrafts, and this trend should continue over the next several hours. ..Darrow.. 09/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OAX...ICT...GID...LBF...GLD... LAT...LON 39170102 41750079 41759808 39169841 39170102 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 142326
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sun Sep 14 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Mario, located a few hundred miles south of the southern tip
of the Baja California Peninsula.

Off the Coast of Southwestern Mexico:
An elongated trough of low pressure, currently located
south-southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
appear generally conducive for some gradual development of this
system, and a tropical depression could form by the latter half of
this week while it moves west-northwestward around 10 to 15 mph.
*Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
*Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

South and Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands:
Showers and thunderstorms remain limited and disorganized associated
with a weak area of low pressure well southeast of the Hawaiian
Islands. Environmental conditions are not expected to support
further development of this system.
*Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
*Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Mario are issued under WMO
header WTPZ33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP3.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Mario are issued under WMO
header WTPZ23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP3.

$$
Forecaster Mahoney/Bucci/Pasch

MD 2079 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 610... FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 2079 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0509 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Areas affected...portions of central into eastern North Dakota Concerning...Tornado Watch 610... Valid 142209Z - 142345Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 610 continues. SUMMARY...Tornadoes will remain possible over the next few hours, with the best chance for tornadoes expected for portions of north-central ND. DISCUSSION...Multiple supercell structures, associated with a parent MCV, have produced several tornadoes, including a few longer-lived tornadoes within the past hour. These supercells are anchored along an effective warm front, and are likely benefiting from both the ambient vertical vorticity from the MCV, as well as locally backed flow (and thus SRH) driven by the MCV and effective warm front. The main question is how long will the locally higher tornado threat last, since the efficiency of tornado production is highly dependent on these storms remaining anchored to the front. Given adequate buoyancy preceding these storms and throughout the warm sector, the current thinking is that tornado potential will continue for at least a few more hours with these storms as they move into north-central ND. Adequate buoyancy, 40+ kts of effective bulk shear, and over 100 m2/s2 effective SRH resides across eastern ND, where other storms have been percolating in intensity. A severe hail/wind threat should continue with these storms. The tornado threat is expected to be overall lower with storms away from the MCV. However, the tornado threat will remain non-zero given a strengthening low-level jet. ..Squitieri.. 09/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS... LAT...LON 45959995 46560051 47200086 47750112 48230131 48630119 48910082 48930048 48849970 48469906 48069849 47459819 46939815 46549836 46149867 45929895 45819921 45809954 45959995 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

WW 0611 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 611 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW HLC TO 40 E MCK TO 35 WNW EAR TO 5 E BUB. ..SPC..09/14/25 ATTN...WFO...GLD...GID...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 611 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC065-137-141-147-163-183-150040- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GRAHAM NORTON OSBORNE PHILLIPS ROOKS SMITH NEC001-019-035-041-047-061-065-073-077-079-081-083-093-099-121- 125-129-137-163-175-181-150040- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BUFFALO CLAY CUSTER DAWSON FRANKLIN FURNAS GOSPER GREELEY HALL HAMILTON HARLAN HOWARD KEARNEY MERRICK NANCE NUCKOLLS PHELPS SHERMAN VALLEY WEBSTER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE Read more

WW 611 SEVERE TSTM KS NE 142040Z - 150300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 611 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 340 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northern Kansas Southwest and South-Central Nebraska * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 340 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Storms should further intensify across southwest/south-central Nebraska and northwest/north-central Kansas through late afternoon, with large hail and isolated damaging winds possible. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles east and west of a line from 25 miles north northeast of Broken Bow NE to 15 miles south southeast of Hill City KS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 610... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24025. ...Guyer Read more

WW 0610 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 610 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S ABR TO 50 SE BIS TO 20 ESE N60 TO 20 SSW MOT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2079 ..SQUITIERI..09/14/25 ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 610 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NDC003-005-009-015-019-021-027-031-039-043-045-047-049-051-055- 063-069-071-075-079-083-093-095-101-103-142340- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARNES BENSON BOTTINEAU BURLEIGH CAVALIER DICKEY EDDY FOSTER GRIGGS KIDDER LAMOURE LOGAN MCHENRY MCINTOSH MCLEAN NELSON PIERCE RAMSEY RENVILLE ROLETTE SHERIDAN STUTSMAN TOWNER WARD WELLS SDC013-142340- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROWN Read more

WW 0610 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 610 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S ABR TO 50 SE BIS TO 20 ESE N60 TO 20 SSW MOT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2079 ..SQUITIERI..09/14/25 ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 610 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NDC003-005-009-015-019-021-027-031-039-043-045-047-049-051-055- 063-069-071-075-079-083-093-095-101-103-142340- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARNES BENSON BOTTINEAU BURLEIGH CAVALIER DICKEY EDDY FOSTER GRIGGS KIDDER LAMOURE LOGAN MCHENRY MCINTOSH MCLEAN NELSON PIERCE RAMSEY RENVILLE ROLETTE SHERIDAN STUTSMAN TOWNER WARD WELLS SDC013-142340- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROWN Read more

WW 610 TORNADO ND SD 141805Z - 150200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 610 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 105 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of North Dakota Northern South Dakota * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 105 PM until 900 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...A northward-moving MCV appears likely to aid increasingly favorable conditions for supercells and a related tornado risk along with some hail and damaging wind potential through the afternoon/early evening. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles east and west of a line from 65 miles north northwest of Devils Lake ND to 45 miles east southeast of Mobridge SD. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 18025. ...Guyer Read more

WW 0611 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 611 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WSW HLC TO 15 E MCK TO 30 ESE LBF TO 20 W BUB. ..SPC..09/14/25 ATTN...WFO...GLD...GID...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 611 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC039-065-137-141-147-163-179-183-142340- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DECATUR GRAHAM NORTON OSBORNE PHILLIPS ROOKS SHERIDAN SMITH NEC001-019-035-041-047-061-063-065-073-077-079-081-083-093-099- 115-121-125-129-137-145-163-175-181-142340- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BUFFALO CLAY CUSTER DAWSON FRANKLIN FRONTIER FURNAS GOSPER GREELEY HALL HAMILTON HARLAN HOWARD KEARNEY LOUP MERRICK NANCE NUCKOLLS PHELPS RED WILLOW SHERMAN VALLEY WEBSTER Read more

MD 2078 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 610... FOR CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 2078 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Areas affected...central North Dakota Concerning...Tornado Watch 610... Valid 142047Z - 142215Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 610 continues. SUMMARY...Tornado risk continues within WW610. DISCUSSION...Several tornadoes have been noted across portions of northern SD into central ND this afternoon with low topped supercell storms. This is ongoing in the vicinity of a lifting warm front and remnant MCV, which is locally enhancing surface vorticity. This trend is likely to continue, with potential for additional tornadoes to develop. Much warmer air continues to funnel in from the southeast, with additional thunderstorm development ongoing along and south of the warm front. These may also pose a risk over the next few hours. ..Thornton.. 09/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BIS... LAT...LON 46560089 47160111 47280107 47930093 48120022 47829995 47019941 46509974 46400087 46560089 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

MD 2075 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR FAR EASTERN OREGON...CENTRAL IDAHO...FAR SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA
Mesoscale Discussion 2075 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0310 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Areas affected...far eastern Oregon...central Idaho...far southwestern Montana Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 142010Z - 142215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorm activity to increase in coverage through the afternoon, with marginal risk for strong to severe wind. DISCUSSION...A belt of enhanced mid-level flow will overspread portions of the Pacific Northwest into the Northern Rockies this afternoon/evening, providing large-scale ascent for widely scattered thunderstorm development. Across portions of eastern Oregon into central Idaho and western Montana, heating and cooling aloft should support steepening lapse rates and MLCAPE around 250-500 J/kg amid 30 kts of deep layer shear. With deeply mixed profiles, this will be sufficient for a few instances of strong to severe wind and small hail. Given the generally poor thermodynamic profiles, this risk should remain fairly localized and as such a watch is not anticipated. ..Thornton/Guyer.. 09/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TFX...PIH...MSO...BOI... LAT...LON 43981763 44751687 46431483 46601332 45691245 44031364 42821454 42261587 42151732 43101829 43661795 43981763 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

MD 2076 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
Mesoscale Discussion 2076 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0312 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Areas affected...portions of the mid Mississippi Valley Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 142012Z - 142215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon across portions of the area. Strong, gusty thunderstorm winds will be possible with the strongest thunderstorms. A watch is not likely. DISCUSSION...A "back-door cold front" continues to move west across the region on the downstream side of a sharp midlevel ridge across the central United States. Along and ahead of this front, temperatures have warmed into the mid-to-upper 90Fs with surface dewpoint temperatures in the 60Fs. This has contributed to moderately to very unstable airmass. Forcing for ascent is nebulous across the region, with low-level convergence along the front weak, and little in the way of large-scale ascent overspreading the region. That said, as peak heating approaches, convective temperatures will be breached on at least a local basis, resulting in isolated to scattered thunderstorm development. Effective-layer shear is quite poor across the region, which should limit overall thunderstorm organization. However, steep low-level lapse rates and a moist airmass may lead to sporadic damaging thunderstorm gusts/outflow. A watch is not expected. ..Marsh/Guyer.. 09/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...LZK... SGF... LAT...LON 35758722 35288859 34978997 35859195 37169281 38629255 39659010 38918769 37188667 35758722 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH Read more

MD 2077 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...FAR WESTERN IOWA...FAR NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA...FAR WESTERN MINNESOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 2077 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0328 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Areas affected...eastern South Dakota...far western Iowa...far northeastern Nebraska...far western Minnesota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 142028Z - 142200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Marginal risk for wind and hail to continue this afternoon. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm activity across portions of eastern South Dakota into northern Nebraska has shown recent uptick in intensity, with a few reports of severe gusts up to 50-60 mph near Watertown, SD and Sioux City, IA. This activity is ongoing in the region of a modest low-level jet and pocket of daytime heating where MLCAPE around 1000-1500 J/kg is observed. For now, it appears this activity will stay fairly widely scattered amid generally weaker shear profiles and in the wake of the morning MCV, and as such a watch is unlikely. ..Thornton/Guyer.. 09/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MPX...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF...UNR... LAT...LON 45249799 45429765 45499699 45269649 44469619 43379602 42729621 42479647 42469702 42629833 42659844 42819910 43750014 44809962 45029852 45249799 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0441 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z The semi-progressive flow pattern over the CONUS will begin to slow early next week as an upper low persists over the central US. Either side of the low, weak ridging will temporarily amplify, keeping the pattern stagnant for much of the week. Zonal flow should begin to increase by early next weekend, though models differ on the evolution of mid-level flow beyond this week. This will keep fire-weather concerns localized through the extended forecast period. ...Northwest and northern Great Basin... A brief period of easterly flow is likely early D3/Tuesday possibly extending into D4 Wednesday over the western Columbia Basin and Cascade Range. High pressure behind the departing upper low will support a modest increase in offshore pressure gradients through midweek. While not overly strong, occasional gusts to 25+ mph may briefly overlap with lower humidity supporting some local fire-weather concerns. Later in the week as the western upper ridge builds, temperatures will warm allowing for a slight increase in low-level winds with a thermal trough in the lee of the Cascades and the northern Great Basin. While winds will not be overly strong, the warm temperatures and drying of fuels could support some localized fire-weather concerns through the end of the week. ...Dry Thunderstorms... As the western upper ridge builds, a subtropical disturbance will approach southern CA D4/Wednesday. Accompanying this feature, mid-level moisture and increasingly strong southwesterly/southerly flow will overspread much of the West through the end of the work week. This could support isolated to scattered thunderstorms with lightning potential into the weekend. However, models vary on the degree of moisture and strength of the upper ridge, casting significant uncertainty on the dry thunderstorm potential midweek and beyond. ..Lyons.. 09/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0441 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z The semi-progressive flow pattern over the CONUS will begin to slow early next week as an upper low persists over the central US. Either side of the low, weak ridging will temporarily amplify, keeping the pattern stagnant for much of the week. Zonal flow should begin to increase by early next weekend, though models differ on the evolution of mid-level flow beyond this week. This will keep fire-weather concerns localized through the extended forecast period. ...Northwest and northern Great Basin... A brief period of easterly flow is likely early D3/Tuesday possibly extending into D4 Wednesday over the western Columbia Basin and Cascade Range. High pressure behind the departing upper low will support a modest increase in offshore pressure gradients through midweek. While not overly strong, occasional gusts to 25+ mph may briefly overlap with lower humidity supporting some local fire-weather concerns. Later in the week as the western upper ridge builds, temperatures will warm allowing for a slight increase in low-level winds with a thermal trough in the lee of the Cascades and the northern Great Basin. While winds will not be overly strong, the warm temperatures and drying of fuels could support some localized fire-weather concerns through the end of the week. ...Dry Thunderstorms... As the western upper ridge builds, a subtropical disturbance will approach southern CA D4/Wednesday. Accompanying this feature, mid-level moisture and increasingly strong southwesterly/southerly flow will overspread much of the West through the end of the work week. This could support isolated to scattered thunderstorms with lightning potential into the weekend. However, models vary on the degree of moisture and strength of the upper ridge, casting significant uncertainty on the dry thunderstorm potential midweek and beyond. ..Lyons.. 09/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0441 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z The semi-progressive flow pattern over the CONUS will begin to slow early next week as an upper low persists over the central US. Either side of the low, weak ridging will temporarily amplify, keeping the pattern stagnant for much of the week. Zonal flow should begin to increase by early next weekend, though models differ on the evolution of mid-level flow beyond this week. This will keep fire-weather concerns localized through the extended forecast period. ...Northwest and northern Great Basin... A brief period of easterly flow is likely early D3/Tuesday possibly extending into D4 Wednesday over the western Columbia Basin and Cascade Range. High pressure behind the departing upper low will support a modest increase in offshore pressure gradients through midweek. While not overly strong, occasional gusts to 25+ mph may briefly overlap with lower humidity supporting some local fire-weather concerns. Later in the week as the western upper ridge builds, temperatures will warm allowing for a slight increase in low-level winds with a thermal trough in the lee of the Cascades and the northern Great Basin. While winds will not be overly strong, the warm temperatures and drying of fuels could support some localized fire-weather concerns through the end of the week. ...Dry Thunderstorms... As the western upper ridge builds, a subtropical disturbance will approach southern CA D4/Wednesday. Accompanying this feature, mid-level moisture and increasingly strong southwesterly/southerly flow will overspread much of the West through the end of the work week. This could support isolated to scattered thunderstorms with lightning potential into the weekend. However, models vary on the degree of moisture and strength of the upper ridge, casting significant uncertainty on the dry thunderstorm potential midweek and beyond. ..Lyons.. 09/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0441 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z The semi-progressive flow pattern over the CONUS will begin to slow early next week as an upper low persists over the central US. Either side of the low, weak ridging will temporarily amplify, keeping the pattern stagnant for much of the week. Zonal flow should begin to increase by early next weekend, though models differ on the evolution of mid-level flow beyond this week. This will keep fire-weather concerns localized through the extended forecast period. ...Northwest and northern Great Basin... A brief period of easterly flow is likely early D3/Tuesday possibly extending into D4 Wednesday over the western Columbia Basin and Cascade Range. High pressure behind the departing upper low will support a modest increase in offshore pressure gradients through midweek. While not overly strong, occasional gusts to 25+ mph may briefly overlap with lower humidity supporting some local fire-weather concerns. Later in the week as the western upper ridge builds, temperatures will warm allowing for a slight increase in low-level winds with a thermal trough in the lee of the Cascades and the northern Great Basin. While winds will not be overly strong, the warm temperatures and drying of fuels could support some localized fire-weather concerns through the end of the week. ...Dry Thunderstorms... As the western upper ridge builds, a subtropical disturbance will approach southern CA D4/Wednesday. Accompanying this feature, mid-level moisture and increasingly strong southwesterly/southerly flow will overspread much of the West through the end of the work week. This could support isolated to scattered thunderstorms with lightning potential into the weekend. However, models vary on the degree of moisture and strength of the upper ridge, casting significant uncertainty on the dry thunderstorm potential midweek and beyond. ..Lyons.. 09/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more