SPC Sep 14, 2025 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

5 days 23 hours ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday across portions of the central Plains. ...Central Plains... A positively-tilted trough will move eastward through the northern Great Basin and eventually reach the central High Plains by Wednesday morning. A weak surface trough and cold front are forecast to be positioned within the northern Plains stretching southwestward into the central High Plains. Surface dewpoints ahead of the front will be in the upper 50s to low/mid 60s F. Surface heating should allow moderate buoyancy to develop from Kansas into Minnesota/Wisconsin during the afternoon. With the trough generally expected to arrive later in the period. Forcing for ascent will not be well-timed with diurnal heating. That being said, forecast soundings do indicate minimal inhibition during the afternoon. Should storms develop, there would be some potential for damaging winds to occur. The ECMWF as well as available CAMs are more supportive of this scenario than the NAM/GFS. Shear will not be overly strong and it will be parallel to the cold front. However it should be sufficient for a few marginally severe storms. The probabilities were shifted slightly northwestward to account for recent trends in guidance. ...North Carolina/Virginia Tidewaters... A coastal low will continue to drift northward on Tuesday. Low-level shear will be enhanced near and just to the north of the circulation center. Whether sufficient buoyancy can develop inland remains a question given precipitation and cloud cover. The likelihood of a stronger storm moving onshore remains too low for probabilities. ..Wendt.. 09/14/2025 Read more

SPC Sep 14, 2025 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

5 days 23 hours ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday across portions of the central Plains. ...Central Plains... A positively-tilted trough will move eastward through the northern Great Basin and eventually reach the central High Plains by Wednesday morning. A weak surface trough and cold front are forecast to be positioned within the northern Plains stretching southwestward into the central High Plains. Surface dewpoints ahead of the front will be in the upper 50s to low/mid 60s F. Surface heating should allow moderate buoyancy to develop from Kansas into Minnesota/Wisconsin during the afternoon. With the trough generally expected to arrive later in the period. Forcing for ascent will not be well-timed with diurnal heating. That being said, forecast soundings do indicate minimal inhibition during the afternoon. Should storms develop, there would be some potential for damaging winds to occur. The ECMWF as well as available CAMs are more supportive of this scenario than the NAM/GFS. Shear will not be overly strong and it will be parallel to the cold front. However it should be sufficient for a few marginally severe storms. The probabilities were shifted slightly northwestward to account for recent trends in guidance. ...North Carolina/Virginia Tidewaters... A coastal low will continue to drift northward on Tuesday. Low-level shear will be enhanced near and just to the north of the circulation center. Whether sufficient buoyancy can develop inland remains a question given precipitation and cloud cover. The likelihood of a stronger storm moving onshore remains too low for probabilities. ..Wendt.. 09/14/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

5 days 23 hours ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ..19z Update... The upper trough exiting the northern Rockies will be followed by surface high pressure, promoting east/northeasterly flow over the northern Columbia Basin beginning late D2/Monday. This will support a brief period of gusty easterly winds through the Cascade gaps and ridge tops into early D3/Tuesday. Isolated gusts of 20-30 mph are possible, along with localized low humidity. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible within pockets of dry fuels, recent rainfall, and the sporadic nature of the dry/breezy conditions should keep the fire-weather risk relatively low. ..Lyons.. 09/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will meander over the northern Rockies, promoting mainly cool and mild conditions across the northwest quadrant of the U.S. tomorrow (Monday). Scattered thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the northern Rockies into the northern High Plains, but the associated rainfall may serve to further dampen fuels. As such, no major wildfire-spread conditions are expected across the CONUS on Monday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

5 days 23 hours ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ..19z Update... The upper trough exiting the northern Rockies will be followed by surface high pressure, promoting east/northeasterly flow over the northern Columbia Basin beginning late D2/Monday. This will support a brief period of gusty easterly winds through the Cascade gaps and ridge tops into early D3/Tuesday. Isolated gusts of 20-30 mph are possible, along with localized low humidity. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible within pockets of dry fuels, recent rainfall, and the sporadic nature of the dry/breezy conditions should keep the fire-weather risk relatively low. ..Lyons.. 09/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will meander over the northern Rockies, promoting mainly cool and mild conditions across the northwest quadrant of the U.S. tomorrow (Monday). Scattered thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the northern Rockies into the northern High Plains, but the associated rainfall may serve to further dampen fuels. As such, no major wildfire-spread conditions are expected across the CONUS on Monday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

5 days 23 hours ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ..19z Update... The upper trough exiting the northern Rockies will be followed by surface high pressure, promoting east/northeasterly flow over the northern Columbia Basin beginning late D2/Monday. This will support a brief period of gusty easterly winds through the Cascade gaps and ridge tops into early D3/Tuesday. Isolated gusts of 20-30 mph are possible, along with localized low humidity. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible within pockets of dry fuels, recent rainfall, and the sporadic nature of the dry/breezy conditions should keep the fire-weather risk relatively low. ..Lyons.. 09/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will meander over the northern Rockies, promoting mainly cool and mild conditions across the northwest quadrant of the U.S. tomorrow (Monday). Scattered thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the northern Rockies into the northern High Plains, but the associated rainfall may serve to further dampen fuels. As such, no major wildfire-spread conditions are expected across the CONUS on Monday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

5 days 23 hours ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ..19z Update... The upper trough exiting the northern Rockies will be followed by surface high pressure, promoting east/northeasterly flow over the northern Columbia Basin beginning late D2/Monday. This will support a brief period of gusty easterly winds through the Cascade gaps and ridge tops into early D3/Tuesday. Isolated gusts of 20-30 mph are possible, along with localized low humidity. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible within pockets of dry fuels, recent rainfall, and the sporadic nature of the dry/breezy conditions should keep the fire-weather risk relatively low. ..Lyons.. 09/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will meander over the northern Rockies, promoting mainly cool and mild conditions across the northwest quadrant of the U.S. tomorrow (Monday). Scattered thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the northern Rockies into the northern High Plains, but the associated rainfall may serve to further dampen fuels. As such, no major wildfire-spread conditions are expected across the CONUS on Monday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

5 days 23 hours ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ..19z Update... The upper trough exiting the northern Rockies will be followed by surface high pressure, promoting east/northeasterly flow over the northern Columbia Basin beginning late D2/Monday. This will support a brief period of gusty easterly winds through the Cascade gaps and ridge tops into early D3/Tuesday. Isolated gusts of 20-30 mph are possible, along with localized low humidity. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible within pockets of dry fuels, recent rainfall, and the sporadic nature of the dry/breezy conditions should keep the fire-weather risk relatively low. ..Lyons.. 09/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will meander over the northern Rockies, promoting mainly cool and mild conditions across the northwest quadrant of the U.S. tomorrow (Monday). Scattered thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the northern Rockies into the northern High Plains, but the associated rainfall may serve to further dampen fuels. As such, no major wildfire-spread conditions are expected across the CONUS on Monday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

5 days 23 hours ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ..19z Update... The upper trough exiting the northern Rockies will be followed by surface high pressure, promoting east/northeasterly flow over the northern Columbia Basin beginning late D2/Monday. This will support a brief period of gusty easterly winds through the Cascade gaps and ridge tops into early D3/Tuesday. Isolated gusts of 20-30 mph are possible, along with localized low humidity. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible within pockets of dry fuels, recent rainfall, and the sporadic nature of the dry/breezy conditions should keep the fire-weather risk relatively low. ..Lyons.. 09/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will meander over the northern Rockies, promoting mainly cool and mild conditions across the northwest quadrant of the U.S. tomorrow (Monday). Scattered thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the northern Rockies into the northern High Plains, but the associated rainfall may serve to further dampen fuels. As such, no major wildfire-spread conditions are expected across the CONUS on Monday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

5 days 23 hours ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ..19z Update... The upper trough exiting the northern Rockies will be followed by surface high pressure, promoting east/northeasterly flow over the northern Columbia Basin beginning late D2/Monday. This will support a brief period of gusty easterly winds through the Cascade gaps and ridge tops into early D3/Tuesday. Isolated gusts of 20-30 mph are possible, along with localized low humidity. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible within pockets of dry fuels, recent rainfall, and the sporadic nature of the dry/breezy conditions should keep the fire-weather risk relatively low. ..Lyons.. 09/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will meander over the northern Rockies, promoting mainly cool and mild conditions across the northwest quadrant of the U.S. tomorrow (Monday). Scattered thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the northern Rockies into the northern High Plains, but the associated rainfall may serve to further dampen fuels. As such, no major wildfire-spread conditions are expected across the CONUS on Monday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

5 days 23 hours ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ..19z Update... The upper trough exiting the northern Rockies will be followed by surface high pressure, promoting east/northeasterly flow over the northern Columbia Basin beginning late D2/Monday. This will support a brief period of gusty easterly winds through the Cascade gaps and ridge tops into early D3/Tuesday. Isolated gusts of 20-30 mph are possible, along with localized low humidity. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible within pockets of dry fuels, recent rainfall, and the sporadic nature of the dry/breezy conditions should keep the fire-weather risk relatively low. ..Lyons.. 09/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will meander over the northern Rockies, promoting mainly cool and mild conditions across the northwest quadrant of the U.S. tomorrow (Monday). Scattered thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the northern Rockies into the northern High Plains, but the associated rainfall may serve to further dampen fuels. As such, no major wildfire-spread conditions are expected across the CONUS on Monday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

5 days 23 hours ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ..19z Update... The upper trough exiting the northern Rockies will be followed by surface high pressure, promoting east/northeasterly flow over the northern Columbia Basin beginning late D2/Monday. This will support a brief period of gusty easterly winds through the Cascade gaps and ridge tops into early D3/Tuesday. Isolated gusts of 20-30 mph are possible, along with localized low humidity. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible within pockets of dry fuels, recent rainfall, and the sporadic nature of the dry/breezy conditions should keep the fire-weather risk relatively low. ..Lyons.. 09/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will meander over the northern Rockies, promoting mainly cool and mild conditions across the northwest quadrant of the U.S. tomorrow (Monday). Scattered thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the northern Rockies into the northern High Plains, but the associated rainfall may serve to further dampen fuels. As such, no major wildfire-spread conditions are expected across the CONUS on Monday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

5 days 23 hours ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ..19z Update... The upper trough exiting the northern Rockies will be followed by surface high pressure, promoting east/northeasterly flow over the northern Columbia Basin beginning late D2/Monday. This will support a brief period of gusty easterly winds through the Cascade gaps and ridge tops into early D3/Tuesday. Isolated gusts of 20-30 mph are possible, along with localized low humidity. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible within pockets of dry fuels, recent rainfall, and the sporadic nature of the dry/breezy conditions should keep the fire-weather risk relatively low. ..Lyons.. 09/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will meander over the northern Rockies, promoting mainly cool and mild conditions across the northwest quadrant of the U.S. tomorrow (Monday). Scattered thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the northern Rockies into the northern High Plains, but the associated rainfall may serve to further dampen fuels. As such, no major wildfire-spread conditions are expected across the CONUS on Monday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

5 days 23 hours ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ..19z Update... The upper trough exiting the northern Rockies will be followed by surface high pressure, promoting east/northeasterly flow over the northern Columbia Basin beginning late D2/Monday. This will support a brief period of gusty easterly winds through the Cascade gaps and ridge tops into early D3/Tuesday. Isolated gusts of 20-30 mph are possible, along with localized low humidity. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible within pockets of dry fuels, recent rainfall, and the sporadic nature of the dry/breezy conditions should keep the fire-weather risk relatively low. ..Lyons.. 09/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will meander over the northern Rockies, promoting mainly cool and mild conditions across the northwest quadrant of the U.S. tomorrow (Monday). Scattered thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the northern Rockies into the northern High Plains, but the associated rainfall may serve to further dampen fuels. As such, no major wildfire-spread conditions are expected across the CONUS on Monday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

5 days 23 hours ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ..19z Update... The upper trough exiting the northern Rockies will be followed by surface high pressure, promoting east/northeasterly flow over the northern Columbia Basin beginning late D2/Monday. This will support a brief period of gusty easterly winds through the Cascade gaps and ridge tops into early D3/Tuesday. Isolated gusts of 20-30 mph are possible, along with localized low humidity. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible within pockets of dry fuels, recent rainfall, and the sporadic nature of the dry/breezy conditions should keep the fire-weather risk relatively low. ..Lyons.. 09/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will meander over the northern Rockies, promoting mainly cool and mild conditions across the northwest quadrant of the U.S. tomorrow (Monday). Scattered thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the northern Rockies into the northern High Plains, but the associated rainfall may serve to further dampen fuels. As such, no major wildfire-spread conditions are expected across the CONUS on Monday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

5 days 23 hours ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ..19z Update... The upper trough exiting the northern Rockies will be followed by surface high pressure, promoting east/northeasterly flow over the northern Columbia Basin beginning late D2/Monday. This will support a brief period of gusty easterly winds through the Cascade gaps and ridge tops into early D3/Tuesday. Isolated gusts of 20-30 mph are possible, along with localized low humidity. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible within pockets of dry fuels, recent rainfall, and the sporadic nature of the dry/breezy conditions should keep the fire-weather risk relatively low. ..Lyons.. 09/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will meander over the northern Rockies, promoting mainly cool and mild conditions across the northwest quadrant of the U.S. tomorrow (Monday). Scattered thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the northern Rockies into the northern High Plains, but the associated rainfall may serve to further dampen fuels. As such, no major wildfire-spread conditions are expected across the CONUS on Monday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

5 days 23 hours ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ..19z Update... The upper trough exiting the northern Rockies will be followed by surface high pressure, promoting east/northeasterly flow over the northern Columbia Basin beginning late D2/Monday. This will support a brief period of gusty easterly winds through the Cascade gaps and ridge tops into early D3/Tuesday. Isolated gusts of 20-30 mph are possible, along with localized low humidity. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible within pockets of dry fuels, recent rainfall, and the sporadic nature of the dry/breezy conditions should keep the fire-weather risk relatively low. ..Lyons.. 09/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will meander over the northern Rockies, promoting mainly cool and mild conditions across the northwest quadrant of the U.S. tomorrow (Monday). Scattered thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the northern Rockies into the northern High Plains, but the associated rainfall may serve to further dampen fuels. As such, no major wildfire-spread conditions are expected across the CONUS on Monday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

5 days 23 hours ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ..19z Update... The upper trough exiting the northern Rockies will be followed by surface high pressure, promoting east/northeasterly flow over the northern Columbia Basin beginning late D2/Monday. This will support a brief period of gusty easterly winds through the Cascade gaps and ridge tops into early D3/Tuesday. Isolated gusts of 20-30 mph are possible, along with localized low humidity. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible within pockets of dry fuels, recent rainfall, and the sporadic nature of the dry/breezy conditions should keep the fire-weather risk relatively low. ..Lyons.. 09/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will meander over the northern Rockies, promoting mainly cool and mild conditions across the northwest quadrant of the U.S. tomorrow (Monday). Scattered thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the northern Rockies into the northern High Plains, but the associated rainfall may serve to further dampen fuels. As such, no major wildfire-spread conditions are expected across the CONUS on Monday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC MD 2072

5 days 23 hours ago
MD 2072 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 2072 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Areas affected...portions of north-central South Dakota and central North Dakota Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 141741Z - 141915Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Severe potential to increase through the afternoon with potential for damaging wind, hail, and tornadoes. DISCUSSION...Appreciable mid-level cloud cover is noted on visible satellite across much of central ND/SD, with convection ongoing near the border in the vicinity of the lifting warm front. Nonetheless, this ongoing convection has showed an uptick in intensity likely owing to some daytime heating and proximity to the nose of a low-level jet axis across the central/northern High Plains. To the east, the cloud deck becomes more broken, with temperatures heating up into the upper 70s to 80s. A more conditional mesoscale corridor of tornado risk may emerge along the lifting warm front as the low-level jet continues to increase this afternoon. In this vicinity, more low-level SRH rich air in the vicinity of the warm front may support supercells. It remains somewhat uncertain that storm mode will remain favorable or transition to mixed mode with more multi-cell clusters. Should this occur, the threat for damaging wind may emerge through time. Some instances of large hail will also be possible with any initial supercells that can maintain. A watch will likely be needed to cover this threat over the next couple of hours. ..Thornton/Guyer.. 09/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS... LAT...LON 45830039 46290064 46890083 47910082 48370070 48699978 48529852 48029805 47429792 47109789 46179822 45329931 45259994 45830039 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more