Aggregator

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ..19z Update... The upper trough exiting the northern Rockies will be followed by surface high pressure, promoting east/northeasterly flow over the northern Columbia Basin beginning late D2/Monday. This will support a brief period of gusty easterly winds through the Cascade gaps and ridge tops into early D3/Tuesday. Isolated gusts of 20-30 mph are possible, along with localized low humidity. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible within pockets of dry fuels, recent rainfall, and the sporadic nature of the dry/breezy conditions should keep the fire-weather risk relatively low. ..Lyons.. 09/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will meander over the northern Rockies, promoting mainly cool and mild conditions across the northwest quadrant of the U.S. tomorrow (Monday). Scattered thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the northern Rockies into the northern High Plains, but the associated rainfall may serve to further dampen fuels. As such, no major wildfire-spread conditions are expected across the CONUS on Monday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ..19z Update... The upper trough exiting the northern Rockies will be followed by surface high pressure, promoting east/northeasterly flow over the northern Columbia Basin beginning late D2/Monday. This will support a brief period of gusty easterly winds through the Cascade gaps and ridge tops into early D3/Tuesday. Isolated gusts of 20-30 mph are possible, along with localized low humidity. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible within pockets of dry fuels, recent rainfall, and the sporadic nature of the dry/breezy conditions should keep the fire-weather risk relatively low. ..Lyons.. 09/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will meander over the northern Rockies, promoting mainly cool and mild conditions across the northwest quadrant of the U.S. tomorrow (Monday). Scattered thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the northern Rockies into the northern High Plains, but the associated rainfall may serve to further dampen fuels. As such, no major wildfire-spread conditions are expected across the CONUS on Monday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ..19z Update... The upper trough exiting the northern Rockies will be followed by surface high pressure, promoting east/northeasterly flow over the northern Columbia Basin beginning late D2/Monday. This will support a brief period of gusty easterly winds through the Cascade gaps and ridge tops into early D3/Tuesday. Isolated gusts of 20-30 mph are possible, along with localized low humidity. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible within pockets of dry fuels, recent rainfall, and the sporadic nature of the dry/breezy conditions should keep the fire-weather risk relatively low. ..Lyons.. 09/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will meander over the northern Rockies, promoting mainly cool and mild conditions across the northwest quadrant of the U.S. tomorrow (Monday). Scattered thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the northern Rockies into the northern High Plains, but the associated rainfall may serve to further dampen fuels. As such, no major wildfire-spread conditions are expected across the CONUS on Monday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ..19z Update... The upper trough exiting the northern Rockies will be followed by surface high pressure, promoting east/northeasterly flow over the northern Columbia Basin beginning late D2/Monday. This will support a brief period of gusty easterly winds through the Cascade gaps and ridge tops into early D3/Tuesday. Isolated gusts of 20-30 mph are possible, along with localized low humidity. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible within pockets of dry fuels, recent rainfall, and the sporadic nature of the dry/breezy conditions should keep the fire-weather risk relatively low. ..Lyons.. 09/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will meander over the northern Rockies, promoting mainly cool and mild conditions across the northwest quadrant of the U.S. tomorrow (Monday). Scattered thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the northern Rockies into the northern High Plains, but the associated rainfall may serve to further dampen fuels. As such, no major wildfire-spread conditions are expected across the CONUS on Monday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ..19z Update... The upper trough exiting the northern Rockies will be followed by surface high pressure, promoting east/northeasterly flow over the northern Columbia Basin beginning late D2/Monday. This will support a brief period of gusty easterly winds through the Cascade gaps and ridge tops into early D3/Tuesday. Isolated gusts of 20-30 mph are possible, along with localized low humidity. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible within pockets of dry fuels, recent rainfall, and the sporadic nature of the dry/breezy conditions should keep the fire-weather risk relatively low. ..Lyons.. 09/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will meander over the northern Rockies, promoting mainly cool and mild conditions across the northwest quadrant of the U.S. tomorrow (Monday). Scattered thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the northern Rockies into the northern High Plains, but the associated rainfall may serve to further dampen fuels. As such, no major wildfire-spread conditions are expected across the CONUS on Monday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ..19z Update... The upper trough exiting the northern Rockies will be followed by surface high pressure, promoting east/northeasterly flow over the northern Columbia Basin beginning late D2/Monday. This will support a brief period of gusty easterly winds through the Cascade gaps and ridge tops into early D3/Tuesday. Isolated gusts of 20-30 mph are possible, along with localized low humidity. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible within pockets of dry fuels, recent rainfall, and the sporadic nature of the dry/breezy conditions should keep the fire-weather risk relatively low. ..Lyons.. 09/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will meander over the northern Rockies, promoting mainly cool and mild conditions across the northwest quadrant of the U.S. tomorrow (Monday). Scattered thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the northern Rockies into the northern High Plains, but the associated rainfall may serve to further dampen fuels. As such, no major wildfire-spread conditions are expected across the CONUS on Monday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ..19z Update... The upper trough exiting the northern Rockies will be followed by surface high pressure, promoting east/northeasterly flow over the northern Columbia Basin beginning late D2/Monday. This will support a brief period of gusty easterly winds through the Cascade gaps and ridge tops into early D3/Tuesday. Isolated gusts of 20-30 mph are possible, along with localized low humidity. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible within pockets of dry fuels, recent rainfall, and the sporadic nature of the dry/breezy conditions should keep the fire-weather risk relatively low. ..Lyons.. 09/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will meander over the northern Rockies, promoting mainly cool and mild conditions across the northwest quadrant of the U.S. tomorrow (Monday). Scattered thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the northern Rockies into the northern High Plains, but the associated rainfall may serve to further dampen fuels. As such, no major wildfire-spread conditions are expected across the CONUS on Monday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ..19z Update... The upper trough exiting the northern Rockies will be followed by surface high pressure, promoting east/northeasterly flow over the northern Columbia Basin beginning late D2/Monday. This will support a brief period of gusty easterly winds through the Cascade gaps and ridge tops into early D3/Tuesday. Isolated gusts of 20-30 mph are possible, along with localized low humidity. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible within pockets of dry fuels, recent rainfall, and the sporadic nature of the dry/breezy conditions should keep the fire-weather risk relatively low. ..Lyons.. 09/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will meander over the northern Rockies, promoting mainly cool and mild conditions across the northwest quadrant of the U.S. tomorrow (Monday). Scattered thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the northern Rockies into the northern High Plains, but the associated rainfall may serve to further dampen fuels. As such, no major wildfire-spread conditions are expected across the CONUS on Monday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 2072 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 2072 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Areas affected...portions of north-central South Dakota and central North Dakota Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 141741Z - 141915Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Severe potential to increase through the afternoon with potential for damaging wind, hail, and tornadoes. DISCUSSION...Appreciable mid-level cloud cover is noted on visible satellite across much of central ND/SD, with convection ongoing near the border in the vicinity of the lifting warm front. Nonetheless, this ongoing convection has showed an uptick in intensity likely owing to some daytime heating and proximity to the nose of a low-level jet axis across the central/northern High Plains. To the east, the cloud deck becomes more broken, with temperatures heating up into the upper 70s to 80s. A more conditional mesoscale corridor of tornado risk may emerge along the lifting warm front as the low-level jet continues to increase this afternoon. In this vicinity, more low-level SRH rich air in the vicinity of the warm front may support supercells. It remains somewhat uncertain that storm mode will remain favorable or transition to mixed mode with more multi-cell clusters. Should this occur, the threat for damaging wind may emerge through time. Some instances of large hail will also be possible with any initial supercells that can maintain. A watch will likely be needed to cover this threat over the next couple of hours. ..Thornton/Guyer.. 09/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS... LAT...LON 45830039 46290064 46890083 47910082 48370070 48699978 48529852 48029805 47429792 47109789 46179822 45329931 45259994 45830039 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

WW 0610 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0610 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0610 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0610 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 141746
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sun Sep 14 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center has resumed issuing advisories on
Tropical Storm Mario, located several hundred miles south of the
southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula.

Off the Coast of Southwestern Mexico:
A broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms is expected
to lead to the formation of an area of low pressure well offshore of
the coast of southern or southwestern Mexico later this week.
Thereafter, environmental conditions appear generally conducive for
gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could
form by the latter half of this week as the system moves
west-northwestward around 10 to 15 mph.
*Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
*Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

South and Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands:
Showers and thunderstorms remain limited and disorganized associated
with a weak area of low pressure well southeast of the Hawaiian
Islands. Environmental conditions do not appear favorable for
development over the next few days as the system moves westward
around 10 mph, remaining well south of the Hawaiian islands.
*Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
*Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Mario are issued under WMO
header WTPZ33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP3.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Mario are issued under WMO
header WTPZ23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP3.

$$
Forecaster Papin

No watches are valid as of Sun Sep 14 17:45:01 UTC 2025.

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorm potential appears generally low on Monday. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will pivot northeastward through Minnesota early in the period. To the West, another shortwave trough will move into the Northern Rockies. A weak surface trough will exist in the central/northern Plains. ...Upper Mississippi Valley southward into the Ozarks... Current guidance continues to suggest that the shortwave trough moving northeastward through Minnesota will not be well phased with the greatest surface heating. However, the ECMWF remains slower than other guidance in this regard. Greater buoyancy will more likely develop from central Minnesota/western Wisconsin southward into the Ozarks. However, these areas will be increasingly removed from the departing mid-level ascent and stronger wind shear. Occasionally strong storms are possible during the afternoon within the pockets of greater buoyancy, but the a large scale pattern suggests these storms will be quite isolated and brief. ...Central into Northern High Plains... Widely scattered to scattered convection is possible from central Wyoming into portion of the High Plains to the east. Cloud cover associated with the upper trough to the west and limited low-level moisture will limit the intensity of this activity. Even so, steep mid-level lapse rates and pockets of steeper low-level lapse rates could support stronger wind gusts. ...North Carolina Tidewater... An offshore surface low will move inland late Monday into Tuesday morning. While low-level shear will be enhanced, precipitation/clouds trough the day/evening should keep buoyancy inland limited. Confidence in a low-end severe threat remains very low. ..Wendt.. 09/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorm potential appears generally low on Monday. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will pivot northeastward through Minnesota early in the period. To the West, another shortwave trough will move into the Northern Rockies. A weak surface trough will exist in the central/northern Plains. ...Upper Mississippi Valley southward into the Ozarks... Current guidance continues to suggest that the shortwave trough moving northeastward through Minnesota will not be well phased with the greatest surface heating. However, the ECMWF remains slower than other guidance in this regard. Greater buoyancy will more likely develop from central Minnesota/western Wisconsin southward into the Ozarks. However, these areas will be increasingly removed from the departing mid-level ascent and stronger wind shear. Occasionally strong storms are possible during the afternoon within the pockets of greater buoyancy, but the a large scale pattern suggests these storms will be quite isolated and brief. ...Central into Northern High Plains... Widely scattered to scattered convection is possible from central Wyoming into portion of the High Plains to the east. Cloud cover associated with the upper trough to the west and limited low-level moisture will limit the intensity of this activity. Even so, steep mid-level lapse rates and pockets of steeper low-level lapse rates could support stronger wind gusts. ...North Carolina Tidewater... An offshore surface low will move inland late Monday into Tuesday morning. While low-level shear will be enhanced, precipitation/clouds trough the day/evening should keep buoyancy inland limited. Confidence in a low-end severe threat remains very low. ..Wendt.. 09/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorm potential appears generally low on Monday. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will pivot northeastward through Minnesota early in the period. To the West, another shortwave trough will move into the Northern Rockies. A weak surface trough will exist in the central/northern Plains. ...Upper Mississippi Valley southward into the Ozarks... Current guidance continues to suggest that the shortwave trough moving northeastward through Minnesota will not be well phased with the greatest surface heating. However, the ECMWF remains slower than other guidance in this regard. Greater buoyancy will more likely develop from central Minnesota/western Wisconsin southward into the Ozarks. However, these areas will be increasingly removed from the departing mid-level ascent and stronger wind shear. Occasionally strong storms are possible during the afternoon within the pockets of greater buoyancy, but the a large scale pattern suggests these storms will be quite isolated and brief. ...Central into Northern High Plains... Widely scattered to scattered convection is possible from central Wyoming into portion of the High Plains to the east. Cloud cover associated with the upper trough to the west and limited low-level moisture will limit the intensity of this activity. Even so, steep mid-level lapse rates and pockets of steeper low-level lapse rates could support stronger wind gusts. ...North Carolina Tidewater... An offshore surface low will move inland late Monday into Tuesday morning. While low-level shear will be enhanced, precipitation/clouds trough the day/evening should keep buoyancy inland limited. Confidence in a low-end severe threat remains very low. ..Wendt.. 09/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorm potential appears generally low on Monday. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will pivot northeastward through Minnesota early in the period. To the West, another shortwave trough will move into the Northern Rockies. A weak surface trough will exist in the central/northern Plains. ...Upper Mississippi Valley southward into the Ozarks... Current guidance continues to suggest that the shortwave trough moving northeastward through Minnesota will not be well phased with the greatest surface heating. However, the ECMWF remains slower than other guidance in this regard. Greater buoyancy will more likely develop from central Minnesota/western Wisconsin southward into the Ozarks. However, these areas will be increasingly removed from the departing mid-level ascent and stronger wind shear. Occasionally strong storms are possible during the afternoon within the pockets of greater buoyancy, but the a large scale pattern suggests these storms will be quite isolated and brief. ...Central into Northern High Plains... Widely scattered to scattered convection is possible from central Wyoming into portion of the High Plains to the east. Cloud cover associated with the upper trough to the west and limited low-level moisture will limit the intensity of this activity. Even so, steep mid-level lapse rates and pockets of steeper low-level lapse rates could support stronger wind gusts. ...North Carolina Tidewater... An offshore surface low will move inland late Monday into Tuesday morning. While low-level shear will be enhanced, precipitation/clouds trough the day/evening should keep buoyancy inland limited. Confidence in a low-end severe threat remains very low. ..Wendt.. 09/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorm potential appears generally low on Monday. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will pivot northeastward through Minnesota early in the period. To the West, another shortwave trough will move into the Northern Rockies. A weak surface trough will exist in the central/northern Plains. ...Upper Mississippi Valley southward into the Ozarks... Current guidance continues to suggest that the shortwave trough moving northeastward through Minnesota will not be well phased with the greatest surface heating. However, the ECMWF remains slower than other guidance in this regard. Greater buoyancy will more likely develop from central Minnesota/western Wisconsin southward into the Ozarks. However, these areas will be increasingly removed from the departing mid-level ascent and stronger wind shear. Occasionally strong storms are possible during the afternoon within the pockets of greater buoyancy, but the a large scale pattern suggests these storms will be quite isolated and brief. ...Central into Northern High Plains... Widely scattered to scattered convection is possible from central Wyoming into portion of the High Plains to the east. Cloud cover associated with the upper trough to the west and limited low-level moisture will limit the intensity of this activity. Even so, steep mid-level lapse rates and pockets of steeper low-level lapse rates could support stronger wind gusts. ...North Carolina Tidewater... An offshore surface low will move inland late Monday into Tuesday morning. While low-level shear will be enhanced, precipitation/clouds trough the day/evening should keep buoyancy inland limited. Confidence in a low-end severe threat remains very low. ..Wendt.. 09/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorm potential appears generally low on Monday. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will pivot northeastward through Minnesota early in the period. To the West, another shortwave trough will move into the Northern Rockies. A weak surface trough will exist in the central/northern Plains. ...Upper Mississippi Valley southward into the Ozarks... Current guidance continues to suggest that the shortwave trough moving northeastward through Minnesota will not be well phased with the greatest surface heating. However, the ECMWF remains slower than other guidance in this regard. Greater buoyancy will more likely develop from central Minnesota/western Wisconsin southward into the Ozarks. However, these areas will be increasingly removed from the departing mid-level ascent and stronger wind shear. Occasionally strong storms are possible during the afternoon within the pockets of greater buoyancy, but the a large scale pattern suggests these storms will be quite isolated and brief. ...Central into Northern High Plains... Widely scattered to scattered convection is possible from central Wyoming into portion of the High Plains to the east. Cloud cover associated with the upper trough to the west and limited low-level moisture will limit the intensity of this activity. Even so, steep mid-level lapse rates and pockets of steeper low-level lapse rates could support stronger wind gusts. ...North Carolina Tidewater... An offshore surface low will move inland late Monday into Tuesday morning. While low-level shear will be enhanced, precipitation/clouds trough the day/evening should keep buoyancy inland limited. Confidence in a low-end severe threat remains very low. ..Wendt.. 09/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorm potential appears generally low on Monday. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will pivot northeastward through Minnesota early in the period. To the West, another shortwave trough will move into the Northern Rockies. A weak surface trough will exist in the central/northern Plains. ...Upper Mississippi Valley southward into the Ozarks... Current guidance continues to suggest that the shortwave trough moving northeastward through Minnesota will not be well phased with the greatest surface heating. However, the ECMWF remains slower than other guidance in this regard. Greater buoyancy will more likely develop from central Minnesota/western Wisconsin southward into the Ozarks. However, these areas will be increasingly removed from the departing mid-level ascent and stronger wind shear. Occasionally strong storms are possible during the afternoon within the pockets of greater buoyancy, but the a large scale pattern suggests these storms will be quite isolated and brief. ...Central into Northern High Plains... Widely scattered to scattered convection is possible from central Wyoming into portion of the High Plains to the east. Cloud cover associated with the upper trough to the west and limited low-level moisture will limit the intensity of this activity. Even so, steep mid-level lapse rates and pockets of steeper low-level lapse rates could support stronger wind gusts. ...North Carolina Tidewater... An offshore surface low will move inland late Monday into Tuesday morning. While low-level shear will be enhanced, precipitation/clouds trough the day/evening should keep buoyancy inland limited. Confidence in a low-end severe threat remains very low. ..Wendt.. 09/14/2025 Read more