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Issued at 800 AM MST Sun Sep 14 2025 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 141443 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Mario Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132025 800 AM MST Sun Sep 14 2025 Overnight and this morning, convection has increased in both coverage and organization with the remnants of Mario, which is now just east-southeast of Socorro Island. Earlier scatterometer data from a Metop-B pass at 0428 UTC indicated that a well-defined center had reformed with a peak wind retrieval of 27 kt. Given the improvement of the system's structure on satellite imagery since that time, it appears that Mario is now on its second life as a tropical cyclone. There was some question as to if this system was fully Mario, or some combination with another disturbance it is interacting with embedded in the monsoon trough to the south. However, there appears to be enough continuity between the prior circulation we were tracking near the coast of Mexico on Friday and the reformation of this new center to indicate this system is the same entity. The initial intensity this advisory is being set to 35 kt, in good agreement with the 12 UTC TAFB Dvorak fix of T2.5/35 kt, a DPRINT estimate of 36 kt at 13 UTC, and a recent pressure observation of 1005 mb at Socorro Island, which appears to be just to the northwest of the tropical storm. Mario is estimated to be moving slowly to the west-northwest at 285/7 kt. This general motion should continue for the next several days as Mario is primarily steered by deep-layer ridging centered over Mexico. Beyond 48 hours, Mario will likely become a shallow tropical cyclone and bend more westward before it dissipates in 3-4 days. The NHC track forecast is in fairly good agreement with the guidance aids, and generally is close to the simple and corrected consensus aids. Mario is in a favorable environment currently, with low shear under 10 kt, warm sea-surface temperatures between 28-30C, and plenty of mid-level moisture. These favorable conditions persist for about 36 hours, and intensification is shown in the forecast, not that far off the most recent HAFS-B forecast. Afterwards, Mario will cross a very sharp temperature gradient while vertical wind shear also increases out of the southwest. Thus, Mario will likely weaken quickly between 48-60 h, losing its organized convection to become a shallow remnant low by 60 h, and dissipating entirely in 3-4 days. The NHC intensity forecast is a bit on the high side of the overall guidance envelope, but is close to the peak intensity of the latest HFIP corrected consensus approach (HCCA). FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/1500Z 18.5N 110.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 15/0000Z 19.1N 111.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 15/1200Z 19.9N 113.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 16/0000Z 20.9N 115.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 16/1200Z 22.1N 117.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 17/0000Z 23.4N 119.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 17/1200Z 24.0N 121.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 14 2025 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 141439 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM MARIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132025 1500 UTC SUN SEP 14 2025 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA SOCORRO 34 14 4(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) ISLA SOCORRO 50 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 115W 34 X 2( 2) 32(34) 1(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) 9( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

Issued at 800 AM MST Sun Sep 14 2025 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 141438 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Mario Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132025 800 AM MST Sun Sep 14 2025 ...MARIO HAS A SECOND LIFE AS A TROPICAL STORM... SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.5N 110.2W ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM ESE OF SOCORRO ISLAND ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM MST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Mario was located near latitude 18.5 North, longitude 110.2 West. Mario is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue for the next several days. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast over the next day or two, followed by weakening by the middle part of this week. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM MST. $$ Forecaster Papin

...MARIO HAS A SECOND LIFE AS A TROPICAL STORM... As of 8:00 AM MST Sun Sep 14 the center of Mario was located near 18.5, -110.2 with movement WNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 14 2025 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 141437 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM MARIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132025 1500 UTC SUN SEP 14 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 110.2W AT 14/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 110.2W AT 14/1500Z AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 110.0W FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 19.1N 111.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 19.9N 113.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 20.9N 115.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 22.1N 117.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 23.4N 119.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 24.0N 121.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.5N 110.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Valid 141300Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across a broad portion of the Great Plains this afternoon to early evening. A more concentrated threat for a couple tornadoes is evident over parts of the Dakotas and for large hail along the Nebraska-Kansas border. ...Dakotas/Western Minnesota... Within a meridional mid-level flow regime, a surface low is forecast to lift north across the central Dakotas this afternoon/evening. A low-level jet will strengthen across the eastern Dakotas towards evening, while moist easterly surface flow will exist north of the low. These processes will result in a relatively confined corridor of enhanced SRH lifting north from north-central SD into central ND later today. In the wake of ongoing precipitation this morning, renewed thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon across the Dakotas along a cold front as ascent with the consolidating and increasingly negatively-tilted upper trough intensifies. Although the primary risks will be isolated strong/severe gusts and hail with multicell or transient supercell structures, storms near the aforementioned surface low/Slight Risk could plausibly acquire sufficient low-level rotation resulting in some tornado potential. Overall intensities should diminish later this evening. ...Central Great Plains... In the wake of overnight storms, boundary-layer heating of a seasonably moist boundary layer will contribute to moderate-strong buoyancy east of a cold front this afternoon. Although stronger wind fields/greater shear will be displaced to the east, sufficient overlap is expected, with the potential for both multicell and supercell characteristics resulting in severe hail/wind potential. A confined plume of steeper mid-level lapse rates (in excess of 7 deg C/km) southeast of the consolidating trough will promote a more concentrated risk for severe hail, centered near the NE/KS border Slight Risk area. ...Southern High Plains... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon within a moderate-strongly buoyant air mass amid modest westerly cloud-bearing layer shear. Both multicell and brief supercell structures are possible with a risk for isolated severe wind and hail, however warmer mid-level temperatures south of the upper trough should tend to temper overall coverage. ...Mid-South/Mid-MS Valley... Ample buoyancy along and southwest of a warm front should aid in a few strong gusts and small hail with scattered late afternoon storms. Deep-layer shear will remain rather weak within the mid-level ridge, suggesting a predominant pulse mode, supporting a minimal threat for organized severe storms. ..Bunting/Broyles.. 09/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Valid 141300Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across a broad portion of the Great Plains this afternoon to early evening. A more concentrated threat for a couple tornadoes is evident over parts of the Dakotas and for large hail along the Nebraska-Kansas border. ...Dakotas/Western Minnesota... Within a meridional mid-level flow regime, a surface low is forecast to lift north across the central Dakotas this afternoon/evening. A low-level jet will strengthen across the eastern Dakotas towards evening, while moist easterly surface flow will exist north of the low. These processes will result in a relatively confined corridor of enhanced SRH lifting north from north-central SD into central ND later today. In the wake of ongoing precipitation this morning, renewed thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon across the Dakotas along a cold front as ascent with the consolidating and increasingly negatively-tilted upper trough intensifies. Although the primary risks will be isolated strong/severe gusts and hail with multicell or transient supercell structures, storms near the aforementioned surface low/Slight Risk could plausibly acquire sufficient low-level rotation resulting in some tornado potential. Overall intensities should diminish later this evening. ...Central Great Plains... In the wake of overnight storms, boundary-layer heating of a seasonably moist boundary layer will contribute to moderate-strong buoyancy east of a cold front this afternoon. Although stronger wind fields/greater shear will be displaced to the east, sufficient overlap is expected, with the potential for both multicell and supercell characteristics resulting in severe hail/wind potential. A confined plume of steeper mid-level lapse rates (in excess of 7 deg C/km) southeast of the consolidating trough will promote a more concentrated risk for severe hail, centered near the NE/KS border Slight Risk area. ...Southern High Plains... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon within a moderate-strongly buoyant air mass amid modest westerly cloud-bearing layer shear. Both multicell and brief supercell structures are possible with a risk for isolated severe wind and hail, however warmer mid-level temperatures south of the upper trough should tend to temper overall coverage. ...Mid-South/Mid-MS Valley... Ample buoyancy along and southwest of a warm front should aid in a few strong gusts and small hail with scattered late afternoon storms. Deep-layer shear will remain rather weak within the mid-level ridge, suggesting a predominant pulse mode, supporting a minimal threat for organized severe storms. ..Bunting/Broyles.. 09/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Valid 141300Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across a broad portion of the Great Plains this afternoon to early evening. A more concentrated threat for a couple tornadoes is evident over parts of the Dakotas and for large hail along the Nebraska-Kansas border. ...Dakotas/Western Minnesota... Within a meridional mid-level flow regime, a surface low is forecast to lift north across the central Dakotas this afternoon/evening. A low-level jet will strengthen across the eastern Dakotas towards evening, while moist easterly surface flow will exist north of the low. These processes will result in a relatively confined corridor of enhanced SRH lifting north from north-central SD into central ND later today. In the wake of ongoing precipitation this morning, renewed thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon across the Dakotas along a cold front as ascent with the consolidating and increasingly negatively-tilted upper trough intensifies. Although the primary risks will be isolated strong/severe gusts and hail with multicell or transient supercell structures, storms near the aforementioned surface low/Slight Risk could plausibly acquire sufficient low-level rotation resulting in some tornado potential. Overall intensities should diminish later this evening. ...Central Great Plains... In the wake of overnight storms, boundary-layer heating of a seasonably moist boundary layer will contribute to moderate-strong buoyancy east of a cold front this afternoon. Although stronger wind fields/greater shear will be displaced to the east, sufficient overlap is expected, with the potential for both multicell and supercell characteristics resulting in severe hail/wind potential. A confined plume of steeper mid-level lapse rates (in excess of 7 deg C/km) southeast of the consolidating trough will promote a more concentrated risk for severe hail, centered near the NE/KS border Slight Risk area. ...Southern High Plains... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon within a moderate-strongly buoyant air mass amid modest westerly cloud-bearing layer shear. Both multicell and brief supercell structures are possible with a risk for isolated severe wind and hail, however warmer mid-level temperatures south of the upper trough should tend to temper overall coverage. ...Mid-South/Mid-MS Valley... Ample buoyancy along and southwest of a warm front should aid in a few strong gusts and small hail with scattered late afternoon storms. Deep-layer shear will remain rather weak within the mid-level ridge, suggesting a predominant pulse mode, supporting a minimal threat for organized severe storms. ..Bunting/Broyles.. 09/14/2025 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 141138
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sun Sep 14 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

South of Baja California Peninsula (Ex-Mario):
Shower and thunderstorm activity has become better organized with
the the remnants of Mario, located a few hundred miles south of the
Baja California Peninsula. Earlier satellite wind data also
indicated the circulation had become better defined. If the ongoing
deep convection persists, Mario is likely to become a tropical
cyclone again, and advisories may be re-initiated as soon as later
this morning as the system moves slowly westward at around 10 mph.
*Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
*Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Off the Coast of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure could develop well offshore of the coast of
southern or southwestern Mexico early this week. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development as
the low tracks west-northwestward around 10 to 15 mph.
*Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
*Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

South and Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a weak area of low
pressure well southeast of the Hawaiian Islands have decreased since
yesterday. Environmental conditions are forecast to become less
conducive for development during the next few days as the system
moves westward around 10 mph, and the potential for tropical cyclone
development appears to be decreasing.
*Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
*Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Jelsema/Papin

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0237 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Valid 171200Z - 221200Z ...DISCUSSION... Organized severe thunderstorm potential appears low during the Day 4-8/Wed-Sun period. Medium range guidance is in fairly good agreement that the upper shortwave trough over the northern/central Plains Day 4 will develop an upper low as it meanders slowly east toward the Mid/Upper MS Valley and the upper Great Lakes through most of the forecast period. Some modest west/southwesterly mid/upper flow ahead of the trough, in conjunction with a seasonally moist boundary layer ahead of a southeastward-drifting cold front could support sporadic strong storms across parts of the central U.S. from the Ozarks to the Upper MS Valley mid to late in the week. However, vertical shear is expected to remain poor, and the slow-moving nature of the upper low and weakening surface front with time/eastward extent, will generally be unfavorable for a more robust severe risk. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0237 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Valid 171200Z - 221200Z ...DISCUSSION... Organized severe thunderstorm potential appears low during the Day 4-8/Wed-Sun period. Medium range guidance is in fairly good agreement that the upper shortwave trough over the northern/central Plains Day 4 will develop an upper low as it meanders slowly east toward the Mid/Upper MS Valley and the upper Great Lakes through most of the forecast period. Some modest west/southwesterly mid/upper flow ahead of the trough, in conjunction with a seasonally moist boundary layer ahead of a southeastward-drifting cold front could support sporadic strong storms across parts of the central U.S. from the Ozarks to the Upper MS Valley mid to late in the week. However, vertical shear is expected to remain poor, and the slow-moving nature of the upper low and weakening surface front with time/eastward extent, will generally be unfavorable for a more robust severe risk. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0237 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Valid 171200Z - 221200Z ...DISCUSSION... Organized severe thunderstorm potential appears low during the Day 4-8/Wed-Sun period. Medium range guidance is in fairly good agreement that the upper shortwave trough over the northern/central Plains Day 4 will develop an upper low as it meanders slowly east toward the Mid/Upper MS Valley and the upper Great Lakes through most of the forecast period. Some modest west/southwesterly mid/upper flow ahead of the trough, in conjunction with a seasonally moist boundary layer ahead of a southeastward-drifting cold front could support sporadic strong storms across parts of the central U.S. from the Ozarks to the Upper MS Valley mid to late in the week. However, vertical shear is expected to remain poor, and the slow-moving nature of the upper low and weakening surface front with time/eastward extent, will generally be unfavorable for a more robust severe risk. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday across portions of the central Plains. ...Central Plains... A positive-tilt upper shortwave trough is forecast to develop eastward from MT/WY into the northern/central Plains on Tuesday. Deep-layer flow is expected to remain modest, though 30-40 kt of southwesterly flow is forecast at 500 mb ahead of the trough across the NE vicinity. At the surface, a weak cold front is expected to develop southeast across the Upper Midwest and central Plains. A seasonally moist airmass, with dewpoints from the upper 50s to mid 60s F will be in place ahead of the front, supporting moderate instability from NE/KS into MN/WI. Stronger forcing for ascent may not occur until after peak heating as the trough ejects slowly east. Additionally, forecast soundings indicate weak capping may persist near the surface boundary. If storms do develop prior to 00z, deep-layer flow parallel to the surface boundary may result in storms becoming undercut by the front. Nevertheless, where favorable/sufficient effective shear magnitudes overlap with stronger instability/steep midlevel lapse rates, a few stronger storms could develop. This may be most likely across parts of NE and vicinity where the cold front intersects a weak low/surface trough, increasing low-level convergence along the boundary. Even if storms are somewhat elevated, isolated hail and gusty winds would be possible. While timing and coverage remain uncertain, the overall parameter space suggests a couple of marginally severe storms will be possible. ..Leitman.. 09/14/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday across portions of the central Plains. ...Central Plains... A positive-tilt upper shortwave trough is forecast to develop eastward from MT/WY into the northern/central Plains on Tuesday. Deep-layer flow is expected to remain modest, though 30-40 kt of southwesterly flow is forecast at 500 mb ahead of the trough across the NE vicinity. At the surface, a weak cold front is expected to develop southeast across the Upper Midwest and central Plains. A seasonally moist airmass, with dewpoints from the upper 50s to mid 60s F will be in place ahead of the front, supporting moderate instability from NE/KS into MN/WI. Stronger forcing for ascent may not occur until after peak heating as the trough ejects slowly east. Additionally, forecast soundings indicate weak capping may persist near the surface boundary. If storms do develop prior to 00z, deep-layer flow parallel to the surface boundary may result in storms becoming undercut by the front. Nevertheless, where favorable/sufficient effective shear magnitudes overlap with stronger instability/steep midlevel lapse rates, a few stronger storms could develop. This may be most likely across parts of NE and vicinity where the cold front intersects a weak low/surface trough, increasing low-level convergence along the boundary. Even if storms are somewhat elevated, isolated hail and gusty winds would be possible. While timing and coverage remain uncertain, the overall parameter space suggests a couple of marginally severe storms will be possible. ..Leitman.. 09/14/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday across portions of the central Plains. ...Central Plains... A positive-tilt upper shortwave trough is forecast to develop eastward from MT/WY into the northern/central Plains on Tuesday. Deep-layer flow is expected to remain modest, though 30-40 kt of southwesterly flow is forecast at 500 mb ahead of the trough across the NE vicinity. At the surface, a weak cold front is expected to develop southeast across the Upper Midwest and central Plains. A seasonally moist airmass, with dewpoints from the upper 50s to mid 60s F will be in place ahead of the front, supporting moderate instability from NE/KS into MN/WI. Stronger forcing for ascent may not occur until after peak heating as the trough ejects slowly east. Additionally, forecast soundings indicate weak capping may persist near the surface boundary. If storms do develop prior to 00z, deep-layer flow parallel to the surface boundary may result in storms becoming undercut by the front. Nevertheless, where favorable/sufficient effective shear magnitudes overlap with stronger instability/steep midlevel lapse rates, a few stronger storms could develop. This may be most likely across parts of NE and vicinity where the cold front intersects a weak low/surface trough, increasing low-level convergence along the boundary. Even if storms are somewhat elevated, isolated hail and gusty winds would be possible. While timing and coverage remain uncertain, the overall parameter space suggests a couple of marginally severe storms will be possible. ..Leitman.. 09/14/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will meander over the northern Rockies, promoting mainly cool and mild conditions across the northwest quadrant of the U.S. tomorrow (Monday). Scattered thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the northern Rockies into the northern High Plains, but the associated rainfall may serve to further dampen fuels. As such, no major wildfire-spread conditions are expected across the CONUS on Monday. ..Squitieri.. 09/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will meander over the northern Rockies, promoting mainly cool and mild conditions across the northwest quadrant of the U.S. tomorrow (Monday). Scattered thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the northern Rockies into the northern High Plains, but the associated rainfall may serve to further dampen fuels. As such, no major wildfire-spread conditions are expected across the CONUS on Monday. ..Squitieri.. 09/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will meander over the northern Rockies, promoting mainly cool and mild conditions across the northwest quadrant of the U.S. tomorrow (Monday). Scattered thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the northern Rockies into the northern High Plains, but the associated rainfall may serve to further dampen fuels. As such, no major wildfire-spread conditions are expected across the CONUS on Monday. ..Squitieri.. 09/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies as another upper trough ejects into the Plains today. Modestly dry and breezy conditions will result across portions of the Great Basin. However, the marginally favorable low-level RH, and fuels that are poorly receptive to wildfire spread, suggest that the chances for significant wildfire ignition and growth are relatively low. The lifting of a buoyant airmass ahead of the western upper trough will support scattered thunderstorm development across portions of the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies. However, fuels do not appear dry enough for robust lightning ignitions to warrant any dry thunderstorm highlights. ..Squitieri.. 09/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies as another upper trough ejects into the Plains today. Modestly dry and breezy conditions will result across portions of the Great Basin. However, the marginally favorable low-level RH, and fuels that are poorly receptive to wildfire spread, suggest that the chances for significant wildfire ignition and growth are relatively low. The lifting of a buoyant airmass ahead of the western upper trough will support scattered thunderstorm development across portions of the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies. However, fuels do not appear dry enough for robust lightning ignitions to warrant any dry thunderstorm highlights. ..Squitieri.. 09/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more