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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Update... No changes were made to Sunday's forecast. Please see the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Barnes.. 09/13/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the Plains states as a second mid-level trough progresses toward the northern Rockies tomorrow (Sunday). Upper support with the western upper trough will encourage scattered thunderstorm development across portions of the Northern Rockies. Furthermore, breezy but marginally dry surface conditions are also expected across the Great Basin. However, fuel receptiveness for wildfire spread across both regions is expected to be relatively poor, with fire weather highlights withheld. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Update... No changes were made to Sunday's forecast. Please see the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Barnes.. 09/13/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the Plains states as a second mid-level trough progresses toward the northern Rockies tomorrow (Sunday). Upper support with the western upper trough will encourage scattered thunderstorm development across portions of the Northern Rockies. Furthermore, breezy but marginally dry surface conditions are also expected across the Great Basin. However, fuel receptiveness for wildfire spread across both regions is expected to be relatively poor, with fire weather highlights withheld. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

022
ABPZ20 KNHC 131752
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sat Sep 13 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

South of Baja California Peninsula:
An area of low pressure located south of the Baja California
Peninsula is producing a broad area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression could
form by the middle of next week as it tracks slowly westward.
*Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
*Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Off the Coast of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure could develop well offshore of the coast of
southern or southwestern Mexico early next week. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development as
the low tracks westward to west-northwestward around 10 to 15 mph.
*Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
*Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

South and Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands:
An area of low pressure well southeast of the Hawaiian Islands is
producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for some gradual
development of this system as it moves westward or
west-northwestward at around 10 mph.
*Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
*Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hogsett

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible across parts of the northern Plains into the southern High Plains tomorrow (Sunday). ...Synopsis... A broad negative tilt trough will eject into the central Plains on Sunday, resulting in a deepening a surface low across the Dakotas. As the surface low deepens, the southerly low-level jet will increase with warm and moist advection from the southern Plains into the northern Plains. ...Great Plains States... The broad area of warm and moist advection will result in widespread shower/thunderstorm activity ongoing at the start of the period Sunday morning. In the wake of this morning convection, extensive cloud cover is expected to cover much of the region from the central Plains into the northern Plains. Some breaks in the cloud cover may allow for pockets of heating and recovery, but it remains uncertain how much air mass recovery will be achieved. Forecast soundings indicate tall skinny CAPE profiles and modest lapse rates (6-7 C/km) which may produce narrow updrafts that struggle to maintain intensity. Nonetheless, sufficient deep layer shear around 30-40 knots will support potential for a few organized storms to develop where recovery occurs, with development of multi-cell clusters and perhaps a few supercells. A narrow Marginal Risk was maintained across the Plains where redevelopment is most likely to start in the northern Plains and spread southward through the afternoon/evening. Closer to surface low across the Dakotas and on the nose of the low-level jet axis, a conditional risk for a tornado is possible if a supercell can be maintained. Overall, the main risks will be for sporadic strong to severe wind and hail. ..Thornton.. 09/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible across parts of the northern Plains into the southern High Plains tomorrow (Sunday). ...Synopsis... A broad negative tilt trough will eject into the central Plains on Sunday, resulting in a deepening a surface low across the Dakotas. As the surface low deepens, the southerly low-level jet will increase with warm and moist advection from the southern Plains into the northern Plains. ...Great Plains States... The broad area of warm and moist advection will result in widespread shower/thunderstorm activity ongoing at the start of the period Sunday morning. In the wake of this morning convection, extensive cloud cover is expected to cover much of the region from the central Plains into the northern Plains. Some breaks in the cloud cover may allow for pockets of heating and recovery, but it remains uncertain how much air mass recovery will be achieved. Forecast soundings indicate tall skinny CAPE profiles and modest lapse rates (6-7 C/km) which may produce narrow updrafts that struggle to maintain intensity. Nonetheless, sufficient deep layer shear around 30-40 knots will support potential for a few organized storms to develop where recovery occurs, with development of multi-cell clusters and perhaps a few supercells. A narrow Marginal Risk was maintained across the Plains where redevelopment is most likely to start in the northern Plains and spread southward through the afternoon/evening. Closer to surface low across the Dakotas and on the nose of the low-level jet axis, a conditional risk for a tornado is possible if a supercell can be maintained. Overall, the main risks will be for sporadic strong to severe wind and hail. ..Thornton.. 09/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible across parts of the northern Plains into the southern High Plains tomorrow (Sunday). ...Synopsis... A broad negative tilt trough will eject into the central Plains on Sunday, resulting in a deepening a surface low across the Dakotas. As the surface low deepens, the southerly low-level jet will increase with warm and moist advection from the southern Plains into the northern Plains. ...Great Plains States... The broad area of warm and moist advection will result in widespread shower/thunderstorm activity ongoing at the start of the period Sunday morning. In the wake of this morning convection, extensive cloud cover is expected to cover much of the region from the central Plains into the northern Plains. Some breaks in the cloud cover may allow for pockets of heating and recovery, but it remains uncertain how much air mass recovery will be achieved. Forecast soundings indicate tall skinny CAPE profiles and modest lapse rates (6-7 C/km) which may produce narrow updrafts that struggle to maintain intensity. Nonetheless, sufficient deep layer shear around 30-40 knots will support potential for a few organized storms to develop where recovery occurs, with development of multi-cell clusters and perhaps a few supercells. A narrow Marginal Risk was maintained across the Plains where redevelopment is most likely to start in the northern Plains and spread southward through the afternoon/evening. Closer to surface low across the Dakotas and on the nose of the low-level jet axis, a conditional risk for a tornado is possible if a supercell can be maintained. Overall, the main risks will be for sporadic strong to severe wind and hail. ..Thornton.. 09/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible across parts of the northern Plains into the southern High Plains tomorrow (Sunday). ...Synopsis... A broad negative tilt trough will eject into the central Plains on Sunday, resulting in a deepening a surface low across the Dakotas. As the surface low deepens, the southerly low-level jet will increase with warm and moist advection from the southern Plains into the northern Plains. ...Great Plains States... The broad area of warm and moist advection will result in widespread shower/thunderstorm activity ongoing at the start of the period Sunday morning. In the wake of this morning convection, extensive cloud cover is expected to cover much of the region from the central Plains into the northern Plains. Some breaks in the cloud cover may allow for pockets of heating and recovery, but it remains uncertain how much air mass recovery will be achieved. Forecast soundings indicate tall skinny CAPE profiles and modest lapse rates (6-7 C/km) which may produce narrow updrafts that struggle to maintain intensity. Nonetheless, sufficient deep layer shear around 30-40 knots will support potential for a few organized storms to develop where recovery occurs, with development of multi-cell clusters and perhaps a few supercells. A narrow Marginal Risk was maintained across the Plains where redevelopment is most likely to start in the northern Plains and spread southward through the afternoon/evening. Closer to surface low across the Dakotas and on the nose of the low-level jet axis, a conditional risk for a tornado is possible if a supercell can be maintained. Overall, the main risks will be for sporadic strong to severe wind and hail. ..Thornton.. 09/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible across parts of the northern Plains into the southern High Plains tomorrow (Sunday). ...Synopsis... A broad negative tilt trough will eject into the central Plains on Sunday, resulting in a deepening a surface low across the Dakotas. As the surface low deepens, the southerly low-level jet will increase with warm and moist advection from the southern Plains into the northern Plains. ...Great Plains States... The broad area of warm and moist advection will result in widespread shower/thunderstorm activity ongoing at the start of the period Sunday morning. In the wake of this morning convection, extensive cloud cover is expected to cover much of the region from the central Plains into the northern Plains. Some breaks in the cloud cover may allow for pockets of heating and recovery, but it remains uncertain how much air mass recovery will be achieved. Forecast soundings indicate tall skinny CAPE profiles and modest lapse rates (6-7 C/km) which may produce narrow updrafts that struggle to maintain intensity. Nonetheless, sufficient deep layer shear around 30-40 knots will support potential for a few organized storms to develop where recovery occurs, with development of multi-cell clusters and perhaps a few supercells. A narrow Marginal Risk was maintained across the Plains where redevelopment is most likely to start in the northern Plains and spread southward through the afternoon/evening. Closer to surface low across the Dakotas and on the nose of the low-level jet axis, a conditional risk for a tornado is possible if a supercell can be maintained. Overall, the main risks will be for sporadic strong to severe wind and hail. ..Thornton.. 09/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible across parts of the northern Plains into the southern High Plains tomorrow (Sunday). ...Synopsis... A broad negative tilt trough will eject into the central Plains on Sunday, resulting in a deepening a surface low across the Dakotas. As the surface low deepens, the southerly low-level jet will increase with warm and moist advection from the southern Plains into the northern Plains. ...Great Plains States... The broad area of warm and moist advection will result in widespread shower/thunderstorm activity ongoing at the start of the period Sunday morning. In the wake of this morning convection, extensive cloud cover is expected to cover much of the region from the central Plains into the northern Plains. Some breaks in the cloud cover may allow for pockets of heating and recovery, but it remains uncertain how much air mass recovery will be achieved. Forecast soundings indicate tall skinny CAPE profiles and modest lapse rates (6-7 C/km) which may produce narrow updrafts that struggle to maintain intensity. Nonetheless, sufficient deep layer shear around 30-40 knots will support potential for a few organized storms to develop where recovery occurs, with development of multi-cell clusters and perhaps a few supercells. A narrow Marginal Risk was maintained across the Plains where redevelopment is most likely to start in the northern Plains and spread southward through the afternoon/evening. Closer to surface low across the Dakotas and on the nose of the low-level jet axis, a conditional risk for a tornado is possible if a supercell can be maintained. Overall, the main risks will be for sporadic strong to severe wind and hail. ..Thornton.. 09/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible across parts of the northern Plains into the southern High Plains tomorrow (Sunday). ...Synopsis... A broad negative tilt trough will eject into the central Plains on Sunday, resulting in a deepening a surface low across the Dakotas. As the surface low deepens, the southerly low-level jet will increase with warm and moist advection from the southern Plains into the northern Plains. ...Great Plains States... The broad area of warm and moist advection will result in widespread shower/thunderstorm activity ongoing at the start of the period Sunday morning. In the wake of this morning convection, extensive cloud cover is expected to cover much of the region from the central Plains into the northern Plains. Some breaks in the cloud cover may allow for pockets of heating and recovery, but it remains uncertain how much air mass recovery will be achieved. Forecast soundings indicate tall skinny CAPE profiles and modest lapse rates (6-7 C/km) which may produce narrow updrafts that struggle to maintain intensity. Nonetheless, sufficient deep layer shear around 30-40 knots will support potential for a few organized storms to develop where recovery occurs, with development of multi-cell clusters and perhaps a few supercells. A narrow Marginal Risk was maintained across the Plains where redevelopment is most likely to start in the northern Plains and spread southward through the afternoon/evening. Closer to surface low across the Dakotas and on the nose of the low-level jet axis, a conditional risk for a tornado is possible if a supercell can be maintained. Overall, the main risks will be for sporadic strong to severe wind and hail. ..Thornton.. 09/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible across parts of the northern Plains into the southern High Plains tomorrow (Sunday). ...Synopsis... A broad negative tilt trough will eject into the central Plains on Sunday, resulting in a deepening a surface low across the Dakotas. As the surface low deepens, the southerly low-level jet will increase with warm and moist advection from the southern Plains into the northern Plains. ...Great Plains States... The broad area of warm and moist advection will result in widespread shower/thunderstorm activity ongoing at the start of the period Sunday morning. In the wake of this morning convection, extensive cloud cover is expected to cover much of the region from the central Plains into the northern Plains. Some breaks in the cloud cover may allow for pockets of heating and recovery, but it remains uncertain how much air mass recovery will be achieved. Forecast soundings indicate tall skinny CAPE profiles and modest lapse rates (6-7 C/km) which may produce narrow updrafts that struggle to maintain intensity. Nonetheless, sufficient deep layer shear around 30-40 knots will support potential for a few organized storms to develop where recovery occurs, with development of multi-cell clusters and perhaps a few supercells. A narrow Marginal Risk was maintained across the Plains where redevelopment is most likely to start in the northern Plains and spread southward through the afternoon/evening. Closer to surface low across the Dakotas and on the nose of the low-level jet axis, a conditional risk for a tornado is possible if a supercell can be maintained. Overall, the main risks will be for sporadic strong to severe wind and hail. ..Thornton.. 09/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025 Valid 131630Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe wind and hail will be possible from the Southwest/southern Rockies, particularly over parts of New Mexico, into the northern Great Plains and a portion of the Midwest, mainly this afternoon and early evening. ...New Mexico and southern Rockies/High Plains... A prominent upper trough will continue to shift east-northeastward today and tonight over the Four Corners area and south-central Rockies. DPVA/cooling aloft and plentiful moisture preceding the trough will contribute to a relatively high coverage, and potentially multiple rounds, of thunderstorms regionally. The 12z observed sounding from El Paso featured Precipitable Water values in the upper 5-10 percent of daily climatological values. Ongoing thunderstorms/cloud cover will tend to mute diurnal destabilization in areas, but portions of southern/eastern New Mexico may see somewhat more aggressive destabilization pending cloud breaks. Will defer to the ample moisture/coverage of storms and rather favorable deep-layer flow field (40+ kt effective shear) and introduce a categorical Slight Risk for portions of New Mexico, where hail/wind risks, including some supercells, are most probable this afternoon through early evening. ...Northern Plains including NE/SD/ND... It still seems that residual cloud cover/outflow from last night's multiple rounds of thunderstorms will tend to temper destabilization later today within a modestly-sheared environment. Nevertheless, some isolated severe wind/hail potential will exist as storms redevelop across the High Plains later today. ...Midwest including portions of Illinois/Indiana... Overall severe potential should remain relatively limited (or at least highly uncertain), however some redevelopment and/or reintensification could occur across downstate portion of Illinois/Indiana, and/or farther north along the instability gradient across northeast Illinois/Chicagoland vicinity into northwest Indiana, where some air mass recovery is plausible. Will maintain low hail/wind probabilities regionally given some lingering severe potential, on a more conditional/uncertain basis with north-northwestward extent under the increasing influence of the upper ridge. ..Guyer/Supinie.. 09/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025 Valid 131630Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe wind and hail will be possible from the Southwest/southern Rockies, particularly over parts of New Mexico, into the northern Great Plains and a portion of the Midwest, mainly this afternoon and early evening. ...New Mexico and southern Rockies/High Plains... A prominent upper trough will continue to shift east-northeastward today and tonight over the Four Corners area and south-central Rockies. DPVA/cooling aloft and plentiful moisture preceding the trough will contribute to a relatively high coverage, and potentially multiple rounds, of thunderstorms regionally. The 12z observed sounding from El Paso featured Precipitable Water values in the upper 5-10 percent of daily climatological values. Ongoing thunderstorms/cloud cover will tend to mute diurnal destabilization in areas, but portions of southern/eastern New Mexico may see somewhat more aggressive destabilization pending cloud breaks. Will defer to the ample moisture/coverage of storms and rather favorable deep-layer flow field (40+ kt effective shear) and introduce a categorical Slight Risk for portions of New Mexico, where hail/wind risks, including some supercells, are most probable this afternoon through early evening. ...Northern Plains including NE/SD/ND... It still seems that residual cloud cover/outflow from last night's multiple rounds of thunderstorms will tend to temper destabilization later today within a modestly-sheared environment. Nevertheless, some isolated severe wind/hail potential will exist as storms redevelop across the High Plains later today. ...Midwest including portions of Illinois/Indiana... Overall severe potential should remain relatively limited (or at least highly uncertain), however some redevelopment and/or reintensification could occur across downstate portion of Illinois/Indiana, and/or farther north along the instability gradient across northeast Illinois/Chicagoland vicinity into northwest Indiana, where some air mass recovery is plausible. Will maintain low hail/wind probabilities regionally given some lingering severe potential, on a more conditional/uncertain basis with north-northwestward extent under the increasing influence of the upper ridge. ..Guyer/Supinie.. 09/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025 Valid 131630Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe wind and hail will be possible from the Southwest/southern Rockies, particularly over parts of New Mexico, into the northern Great Plains and a portion of the Midwest, mainly this afternoon and early evening. ...New Mexico and southern Rockies/High Plains... A prominent upper trough will continue to shift east-northeastward today and tonight over the Four Corners area and south-central Rockies. DPVA/cooling aloft and plentiful moisture preceding the trough will contribute to a relatively high coverage, and potentially multiple rounds, of thunderstorms regionally. The 12z observed sounding from El Paso featured Precipitable Water values in the upper 5-10 percent of daily climatological values. Ongoing thunderstorms/cloud cover will tend to mute diurnal destabilization in areas, but portions of southern/eastern New Mexico may see somewhat more aggressive destabilization pending cloud breaks. Will defer to the ample moisture/coverage of storms and rather favorable deep-layer flow field (40+ kt effective shear) and introduce a categorical Slight Risk for portions of New Mexico, where hail/wind risks, including some supercells, are most probable this afternoon through early evening. ...Northern Plains including NE/SD/ND... It still seems that residual cloud cover/outflow from last night's multiple rounds of thunderstorms will tend to temper destabilization later today within a modestly-sheared environment. Nevertheless, some isolated severe wind/hail potential will exist as storms redevelop across the High Plains later today. ...Midwest including portions of Illinois/Indiana... Overall severe potential should remain relatively limited (or at least highly uncertain), however some redevelopment and/or reintensification could occur across downstate portion of Illinois/Indiana, and/or farther north along the instability gradient across northeast Illinois/Chicagoland vicinity into northwest Indiana, where some air mass recovery is plausible. Will maintain low hail/wind probabilities regionally given some lingering severe potential, on a more conditional/uncertain basis with north-northwestward extent under the increasing influence of the upper ridge. ..Guyer/Supinie.. 09/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025 Valid 131630Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe wind and hail will be possible from the Southwest/southern Rockies, particularly over parts of New Mexico, into the northern Great Plains and a portion of the Midwest, mainly this afternoon and early evening. ...New Mexico and southern Rockies/High Plains... A prominent upper trough will continue to shift east-northeastward today and tonight over the Four Corners area and south-central Rockies. DPVA/cooling aloft and plentiful moisture preceding the trough will contribute to a relatively high coverage, and potentially multiple rounds, of thunderstorms regionally. The 12z observed sounding from El Paso featured Precipitable Water values in the upper 5-10 percent of daily climatological values. Ongoing thunderstorms/cloud cover will tend to mute diurnal destabilization in areas, but portions of southern/eastern New Mexico may see somewhat more aggressive destabilization pending cloud breaks. Will defer to the ample moisture/coverage of storms and rather favorable deep-layer flow field (40+ kt effective shear) and introduce a categorical Slight Risk for portions of New Mexico, where hail/wind risks, including some supercells, are most probable this afternoon through early evening. ...Northern Plains including NE/SD/ND... It still seems that residual cloud cover/outflow from last night's multiple rounds of thunderstorms will tend to temper destabilization later today within a modestly-sheared environment. Nevertheless, some isolated severe wind/hail potential will exist as storms redevelop across the High Plains later today. ...Midwest including portions of Illinois/Indiana... Overall severe potential should remain relatively limited (or at least highly uncertain), however some redevelopment and/or reintensification could occur across downstate portion of Illinois/Indiana, and/or farther north along the instability gradient across northeast Illinois/Chicagoland vicinity into northwest Indiana, where some air mass recovery is plausible. Will maintain low hail/wind probabilities regionally given some lingering severe potential, on a more conditional/uncertain basis with north-northwestward extent under the increasing influence of the upper ridge. ..Guyer/Supinie.. 09/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025 Valid 131630Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe wind and hail will be possible from the Southwest/southern Rockies, particularly over parts of New Mexico, into the northern Great Plains and a portion of the Midwest, mainly this afternoon and early evening. ...New Mexico and southern Rockies/High Plains... A prominent upper trough will continue to shift east-northeastward today and tonight over the Four Corners area and south-central Rockies. DPVA/cooling aloft and plentiful moisture preceding the trough will contribute to a relatively high coverage, and potentially multiple rounds, of thunderstorms regionally. The 12z observed sounding from El Paso featured Precipitable Water values in the upper 5-10 percent of daily climatological values. Ongoing thunderstorms/cloud cover will tend to mute diurnal destabilization in areas, but portions of southern/eastern New Mexico may see somewhat more aggressive destabilization pending cloud breaks. Will defer to the ample moisture/coverage of storms and rather favorable deep-layer flow field (40+ kt effective shear) and introduce a categorical Slight Risk for portions of New Mexico, where hail/wind risks, including some supercells, are most probable this afternoon through early evening. ...Northern Plains including NE/SD/ND... It still seems that residual cloud cover/outflow from last night's multiple rounds of thunderstorms will tend to temper destabilization later today within a modestly-sheared environment. Nevertheless, some isolated severe wind/hail potential will exist as storms redevelop across the High Plains later today. ...Midwest including portions of Illinois/Indiana... Overall severe potential should remain relatively limited (or at least highly uncertain), however some redevelopment and/or reintensification could occur across downstate portion of Illinois/Indiana, and/or farther north along the instability gradient across northeast Illinois/Chicagoland vicinity into northwest Indiana, where some air mass recovery is plausible. Will maintain low hail/wind probabilities regionally given some lingering severe potential, on a more conditional/uncertain basis with north-northwestward extent under the increasing influence of the upper ridge. ..Guyer/Supinie.. 09/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025 Valid 131630Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe wind and hail will be possible from the Southwest/southern Rockies, particularly over parts of New Mexico, into the northern Great Plains and a portion of the Midwest, mainly this afternoon and early evening. ...New Mexico and southern Rockies/High Plains... A prominent upper trough will continue to shift east-northeastward today and tonight over the Four Corners area and south-central Rockies. DPVA/cooling aloft and plentiful moisture preceding the trough will contribute to a relatively high coverage, and potentially multiple rounds, of thunderstorms regionally. The 12z observed sounding from El Paso featured Precipitable Water values in the upper 5-10 percent of daily climatological values. Ongoing thunderstorms/cloud cover will tend to mute diurnal destabilization in areas, but portions of southern/eastern New Mexico may see somewhat more aggressive destabilization pending cloud breaks. Will defer to the ample moisture/coverage of storms and rather favorable deep-layer flow field (40+ kt effective shear) and introduce a categorical Slight Risk for portions of New Mexico, where hail/wind risks, including some supercells, are most probable this afternoon through early evening. ...Northern Plains including NE/SD/ND... It still seems that residual cloud cover/outflow from last night's multiple rounds of thunderstorms will tend to temper destabilization later today within a modestly-sheared environment. Nevertheless, some isolated severe wind/hail potential will exist as storms redevelop across the High Plains later today. ...Midwest including portions of Illinois/Indiana... Overall severe potential should remain relatively limited (or at least highly uncertain), however some redevelopment and/or reintensification could occur across downstate portion of Illinois/Indiana, and/or farther north along the instability gradient across northeast Illinois/Chicagoland vicinity into northwest Indiana, where some air mass recovery is plausible. Will maintain low hail/wind probabilities regionally given some lingering severe potential, on a more conditional/uncertain basis with north-northwestward extent under the increasing influence of the upper ridge. ..Guyer/Supinie.. 09/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025 Valid 131630Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe wind and hail will be possible from the Southwest/southern Rockies, particularly over parts of New Mexico, into the northern Great Plains and a portion of the Midwest, mainly this afternoon and early evening. ...New Mexico and southern Rockies/High Plains... A prominent upper trough will continue to shift east-northeastward today and tonight over the Four Corners area and south-central Rockies. DPVA/cooling aloft and plentiful moisture preceding the trough will contribute to a relatively high coverage, and potentially multiple rounds, of thunderstorms regionally. The 12z observed sounding from El Paso featured Precipitable Water values in the upper 5-10 percent of daily climatological values. Ongoing thunderstorms/cloud cover will tend to mute diurnal destabilization in areas, but portions of southern/eastern New Mexico may see somewhat more aggressive destabilization pending cloud breaks. Will defer to the ample moisture/coverage of storms and rather favorable deep-layer flow field (40+ kt effective shear) and introduce a categorical Slight Risk for portions of New Mexico, where hail/wind risks, including some supercells, are most probable this afternoon through early evening. ...Northern Plains including NE/SD/ND... It still seems that residual cloud cover/outflow from last night's multiple rounds of thunderstorms will tend to temper destabilization later today within a modestly-sheared environment. Nevertheless, some isolated severe wind/hail potential will exist as storms redevelop across the High Plains later today. ...Midwest including portions of Illinois/Indiana... Overall severe potential should remain relatively limited (or at least highly uncertain), however some redevelopment and/or reintensification could occur across downstate portion of Illinois/Indiana, and/or farther north along the instability gradient across northeast Illinois/Chicagoland vicinity into northwest Indiana, where some air mass recovery is plausible. Will maintain low hail/wind probabilities regionally given some lingering severe potential, on a more conditional/uncertain basis with north-northwestward extent under the increasing influence of the upper ridge. ..Guyer/Supinie.. 09/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025 Valid 131630Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe wind and hail will be possible from the Southwest/southern Rockies, particularly over parts of New Mexico, into the northern Great Plains and a portion of the Midwest, mainly this afternoon and early evening. ...New Mexico and southern Rockies/High Plains... A prominent upper trough will continue to shift east-northeastward today and tonight over the Four Corners area and south-central Rockies. DPVA/cooling aloft and plentiful moisture preceding the trough will contribute to a relatively high coverage, and potentially multiple rounds, of thunderstorms regionally. The 12z observed sounding from El Paso featured Precipitable Water values in the upper 5-10 percent of daily climatological values. Ongoing thunderstorms/cloud cover will tend to mute diurnal destabilization in areas, but portions of southern/eastern New Mexico may see somewhat more aggressive destabilization pending cloud breaks. Will defer to the ample moisture/coverage of storms and rather favorable deep-layer flow field (40+ kt effective shear) and introduce a categorical Slight Risk for portions of New Mexico, where hail/wind risks, including some supercells, are most probable this afternoon through early evening. ...Northern Plains including NE/SD/ND... It still seems that residual cloud cover/outflow from last night's multiple rounds of thunderstorms will tend to temper destabilization later today within a modestly-sheared environment. Nevertheless, some isolated severe wind/hail potential will exist as storms redevelop across the High Plains later today. ...Midwest including portions of Illinois/Indiana... Overall severe potential should remain relatively limited (or at least highly uncertain), however some redevelopment and/or reintensification could occur across downstate portion of Illinois/Indiana, and/or farther north along the instability gradient across northeast Illinois/Chicagoland vicinity into northwest Indiana, where some air mass recovery is plausible. Will maintain low hail/wind probabilities regionally given some lingering severe potential, on a more conditional/uncertain basis with north-northwestward extent under the increasing influence of the upper ridge. ..Guyer/Supinie.. 09/13/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1100 AM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025 Valid 131700Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Update... No changes have been made to today's forecast. Please see the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Barnes.. 09/13/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025/ ...Synopsis... The first in a series of mid-level troughs will eject into the Plains states as a second mid-level trough impinges on the West Coast today. Seasonably moist conditions are likely across much of the Interior West, with scattered to numerous thunderstorms likely across the Rockies in association with the first upper trough. The current thinking is that primarily wetting rains may accompany most thunderstorms across the Rockies, resulting in the continued dampening of fuels. As such, no fire weather highlights have been introduced. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more