Aggregator

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0436 PM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z ...Synopsis... By early next week, two mid-level shortwave troughs over the northern Great Plains and northern Rockies will phase resulting in a positively tilted trough there. An increasing mid level height gradient is expected near the base of this feature over the central Rockies, while surface pressure falls and an increasing pressure gradient over the northern Plains promote breezy southerlies from eastern NE to MN. Farther east by mid week, a narrow mid to upper-level ridge over the Great Lakes will begin to break down as the aforementioned trough deepens and digs southward over the Plains. Shortwave ridging, however, will likely continue through D6/Thursday over already receptive fuels from the MS Valley northeastward into the OH Valley. A mid to upper-level ridge will also return to CA and the Southwest by this time. Overall, considering modest wind speeds across most of the CONUS throughout the extended forecast (the exception being D3/Monday), the combined/total fire weather environment is expected to remain low. ...Snake River Plain and southern WY... Similar to Sunday, localized breezy westerly winds are anticipated across this area D3/Monday. Relatively higher minimum RH and unreceptive fuels should limit the fire spread potential, and low critical probabilities are not warranted. ..Barnes.. 09/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0436 PM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z ...Synopsis... By early next week, two mid-level shortwave troughs over the northern Great Plains and northern Rockies will phase resulting in a positively tilted trough there. An increasing mid level height gradient is expected near the base of this feature over the central Rockies, while surface pressure falls and an increasing pressure gradient over the northern Plains promote breezy southerlies from eastern NE to MN. Farther east by mid week, a narrow mid to upper-level ridge over the Great Lakes will begin to break down as the aforementioned trough deepens and digs southward over the Plains. Shortwave ridging, however, will likely continue through D6/Thursday over already receptive fuels from the MS Valley northeastward into the OH Valley. A mid to upper-level ridge will also return to CA and the Southwest by this time. Overall, considering modest wind speeds across most of the CONUS throughout the extended forecast (the exception being D3/Monday), the combined/total fire weather environment is expected to remain low. ...Snake River Plain and southern WY... Similar to Sunday, localized breezy westerly winds are anticipated across this area D3/Monday. Relatively higher minimum RH and unreceptive fuels should limit the fire spread potential, and low critical probabilities are not warranted. ..Barnes.. 09/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 2071 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF WESTERN NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA
Mesoscale Discussion 2071 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025 Areas affected...parts of western New Mexico and southeastern Arizona Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 131900Z - 132130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Scattered storms may produce large hail and severe gusts this afternoon across portions of western New Mexico and southeastern Arizona. A watch may be needed. DISCUSSION...Scattered storms have developed across portions of western New Mexico, situated near an upper low and associated jet streak, which is providing sufficient deep-layer shear for supercells, per mesoanalysis and regional VWPs. Hodographs are generally long and straight, suggesting that large hail may be a threat with any sustained supercells, and a TBSS has already been noted on KABX radar. Though relatively weak mid-level lapse rates, particularly over the southern part of the region, may limit hail productivity. Evolution of the severe threat this afternoon and evening is uncertain. With time, storms may cluster, and these clusters may have risk of severe gusts. However, high boundary layer relative humidity may result in weaker cold pools and slower clustering. Additionally, clouds and stable air are lingering across portions of eastern New Mexico, which may provide an eastward bound to the severe risk. A watch may be needed as storms develop eastward later this afternoon, and trends will be monitored. ..Supinie/Guyer.. 09/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...TWC... LAT...LON 31720823 31640944 31720986 32091006 32880929 33260898 33730861 34730784 35480764 35830769 36140763 36260730 36040639 35560573 35160535 34460528 33170545 32540568 32070606 31750677 31720728 31720823 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0303 PM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe wind and hail will be possible from the Southwest/southern Rockies, particularly over parts of New Mexico, into the northern Great Plains and a portion of the Midwest, mainly this afternoon and early evening. ...20Z Update... A few stronger elevated thunderstorms have persisted across northwest Indiana through early afternoon. These storms appear to be maintaining themselves as they move across western Indiana. Storms are currently on the eastern periphery of the instability which could limit longevity. However, strong mid-level flow is in place (45-50 knots around 4 km per LOT VWP) which will continue to support supercells and may help maintain storms even with limited instability. Only a slight southeast expansion was made to the Marginal Risk to account for areas downstream of the recently warned storms. Will maintain the Marginal risk farther west across eastern Illinois, but confidence is not that high that storms will form across this area. However, if they do, the environment would support strong to severe storms capable of large hail and wind gusts. Farther west, scattered thunderstorms have developed across New Mexico and are starting to move east. Weak to moderate instability and moderate to strong shear will support some severe weather potential with large hail and wind gusts as the primary threats. See MCD 2071 for additional information about the threat in this area. Across southeast Utah and southwest Colorado, several storms have developed with some apparent supercell structures. Increased ambient vorticity beneath the upper-level low has provided an environment apparently favorable for tornadoes. At least one well-developed tornado/landspout has been observed thus far. Added 2% tornado probabilities to this region as an additional threat could be possible from the same storm or a few other stronger cells in the region. ..Bentley.. 09/13/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1136 AM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025/ ...New Mexico and southern Rockies/High Plains... A prominent upper trough will continue to shift east-northeastward today and tonight over the Four Corners area and south-central Rockies. DPVA/cooling aloft and plentiful moisture preceding the trough will contribute to a relatively high coverage, and potentially multiple rounds, of thunderstorms regionally. The 12z observed sounding from El Paso featured Precipitable Water values in the upper 5-10 percent of daily climatological values. Ongoing thunderstorms/cloud cover will tend to mute diurnal destabilization in areas, but portions of southern/eastern New Mexico may see somewhat more aggressive destabilization pending cloud breaks. Will defer to the ample moisture/coverage of storms and rather favorable deep-layer flow field (40+ kt effective shear) and introduce a categorical Slight Risk for portions of New Mexico, where hail/wind risks, including some supercells, are most probable this afternoon through early evening. ...Northern Plains including NE/SD/ND... It still seems that residual cloud cover/outflow from last night's multiple rounds of thunderstorms will tend to temper destabilization later today within a modestly-sheared environment. Nevertheless, some isolated severe wind/hail potential will exist as storms redevelop across the High Plains later today. ...Midwest including portions of Illinois/Indiana... Overall severe potential should remain relatively limited (or at least highly uncertain), however some redevelopment and/or reintensification could occur across downstate portion of Illinois/Indiana, and/or farther north along the instability gradient across northeast Illinois/Chicagoland vicinity into northwest Indiana, where some air mass recovery is plausible. Will maintain low hail/wind probabilities regionally given some lingering severe potential, on a more conditional/uncertain basis with north-northwestward extent under the increasing influence of the upper ridge. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0303 PM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe wind and hail will be possible from the Southwest/southern Rockies, particularly over parts of New Mexico, into the northern Great Plains and a portion of the Midwest, mainly this afternoon and early evening. ...20Z Update... A few stronger elevated thunderstorms have persisted across northwest Indiana through early afternoon. These storms appear to be maintaining themselves as they move across western Indiana. Storms are currently on the eastern periphery of the instability which could limit longevity. However, strong mid-level flow is in place (45-50 knots around 4 km per LOT VWP) which will continue to support supercells and may help maintain storms even with limited instability. Only a slight southeast expansion was made to the Marginal Risk to account for areas downstream of the recently warned storms. Will maintain the Marginal risk farther west across eastern Illinois, but confidence is not that high that storms will form across this area. However, if they do, the environment would support strong to severe storms capable of large hail and wind gusts. Farther west, scattered thunderstorms have developed across New Mexico and are starting to move east. Weak to moderate instability and moderate to strong shear will support some severe weather potential with large hail and wind gusts as the primary threats. See MCD 2071 for additional information about the threat in this area. Across southeast Utah and southwest Colorado, several storms have developed with some apparent supercell structures. Increased ambient vorticity beneath the upper-level low has provided an environment apparently favorable for tornadoes. At least one well-developed tornado/landspout has been observed thus far. Added 2% tornado probabilities to this region as an additional threat could be possible from the same storm or a few other stronger cells in the region. ..Bentley.. 09/13/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1136 AM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025/ ...New Mexico and southern Rockies/High Plains... A prominent upper trough will continue to shift east-northeastward today and tonight over the Four Corners area and south-central Rockies. DPVA/cooling aloft and plentiful moisture preceding the trough will contribute to a relatively high coverage, and potentially multiple rounds, of thunderstorms regionally. The 12z observed sounding from El Paso featured Precipitable Water values in the upper 5-10 percent of daily climatological values. Ongoing thunderstorms/cloud cover will tend to mute diurnal destabilization in areas, but portions of southern/eastern New Mexico may see somewhat more aggressive destabilization pending cloud breaks. Will defer to the ample moisture/coverage of storms and rather favorable deep-layer flow field (40+ kt effective shear) and introduce a categorical Slight Risk for portions of New Mexico, where hail/wind risks, including some supercells, are most probable this afternoon through early evening. ...Northern Plains including NE/SD/ND... It still seems that residual cloud cover/outflow from last night's multiple rounds of thunderstorms will tend to temper destabilization later today within a modestly-sheared environment. Nevertheless, some isolated severe wind/hail potential will exist as storms redevelop across the High Plains later today. ...Midwest including portions of Illinois/Indiana... Overall severe potential should remain relatively limited (or at least highly uncertain), however some redevelopment and/or reintensification could occur across downstate portion of Illinois/Indiana, and/or farther north along the instability gradient across northeast Illinois/Chicagoland vicinity into northwest Indiana, where some air mass recovery is plausible. Will maintain low hail/wind probabilities regionally given some lingering severe potential, on a more conditional/uncertain basis with north-northwestward extent under the increasing influence of the upper ridge. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0303 PM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe wind and hail will be possible from the Southwest/southern Rockies, particularly over parts of New Mexico, into the northern Great Plains and a portion of the Midwest, mainly this afternoon and early evening. ...20Z Update... A few stronger elevated thunderstorms have persisted across northwest Indiana through early afternoon. These storms appear to be maintaining themselves as they move across western Indiana. Storms are currently on the eastern periphery of the instability which could limit longevity. However, strong mid-level flow is in place (45-50 knots around 4 km per LOT VWP) which will continue to support supercells and may help maintain storms even with limited instability. Only a slight southeast expansion was made to the Marginal Risk to account for areas downstream of the recently warned storms. Will maintain the Marginal risk farther west across eastern Illinois, but confidence is not that high that storms will form across this area. However, if they do, the environment would support strong to severe storms capable of large hail and wind gusts. Farther west, scattered thunderstorms have developed across New Mexico and are starting to move east. Weak to moderate instability and moderate to strong shear will support some severe weather potential with large hail and wind gusts as the primary threats. See MCD 2071 for additional information about the threat in this area. Across southeast Utah and southwest Colorado, several storms have developed with some apparent supercell structures. Increased ambient vorticity beneath the upper-level low has provided an environment apparently favorable for tornadoes. At least one well-developed tornado/landspout has been observed thus far. Added 2% tornado probabilities to this region as an additional threat could be possible from the same storm or a few other stronger cells in the region. ..Bentley.. 09/13/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1136 AM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025/ ...New Mexico and southern Rockies/High Plains... A prominent upper trough will continue to shift east-northeastward today and tonight over the Four Corners area and south-central Rockies. DPVA/cooling aloft and plentiful moisture preceding the trough will contribute to a relatively high coverage, and potentially multiple rounds, of thunderstorms regionally. The 12z observed sounding from El Paso featured Precipitable Water values in the upper 5-10 percent of daily climatological values. Ongoing thunderstorms/cloud cover will tend to mute diurnal destabilization in areas, but portions of southern/eastern New Mexico may see somewhat more aggressive destabilization pending cloud breaks. Will defer to the ample moisture/coverage of storms and rather favorable deep-layer flow field (40+ kt effective shear) and introduce a categorical Slight Risk for portions of New Mexico, where hail/wind risks, including some supercells, are most probable this afternoon through early evening. ...Northern Plains including NE/SD/ND... It still seems that residual cloud cover/outflow from last night's multiple rounds of thunderstorms will tend to temper destabilization later today within a modestly-sheared environment. Nevertheless, some isolated severe wind/hail potential will exist as storms redevelop across the High Plains later today. ...Midwest including portions of Illinois/Indiana... Overall severe potential should remain relatively limited (or at least highly uncertain), however some redevelopment and/or reintensification could occur across downstate portion of Illinois/Indiana, and/or farther north along the instability gradient across northeast Illinois/Chicagoland vicinity into northwest Indiana, where some air mass recovery is plausible. Will maintain low hail/wind probabilities regionally given some lingering severe potential, on a more conditional/uncertain basis with north-northwestward extent under the increasing influence of the upper ridge. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0303 PM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe wind and hail will be possible from the Southwest/southern Rockies, particularly over parts of New Mexico, into the northern Great Plains and a portion of the Midwest, mainly this afternoon and early evening. ...20Z Update... A few stronger elevated thunderstorms have persisted across northwest Indiana through early afternoon. These storms appear to be maintaining themselves as they move across western Indiana. Storms are currently on the eastern periphery of the instability which could limit longevity. However, strong mid-level flow is in place (45-50 knots around 4 km per LOT VWP) which will continue to support supercells and may help maintain storms even with limited instability. Only a slight southeast expansion was made to the Marginal Risk to account for areas downstream of the recently warned storms. Will maintain the Marginal risk farther west across eastern Illinois, but confidence is not that high that storms will form across this area. However, if they do, the environment would support strong to severe storms capable of large hail and wind gusts. Farther west, scattered thunderstorms have developed across New Mexico and are starting to move east. Weak to moderate instability and moderate to strong shear will support some severe weather potential with large hail and wind gusts as the primary threats. See MCD 2071 for additional information about the threat in this area. Across southeast Utah and southwest Colorado, several storms have developed with some apparent supercell structures. Increased ambient vorticity beneath the upper-level low has provided an environment apparently favorable for tornadoes. At least one well-developed tornado/landspout has been observed thus far. Added 2% tornado probabilities to this region as an additional threat could be possible from the same storm or a few other stronger cells in the region. ..Bentley.. 09/13/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1136 AM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025/ ...New Mexico and southern Rockies/High Plains... A prominent upper trough will continue to shift east-northeastward today and tonight over the Four Corners area and south-central Rockies. DPVA/cooling aloft and plentiful moisture preceding the trough will contribute to a relatively high coverage, and potentially multiple rounds, of thunderstorms regionally. The 12z observed sounding from El Paso featured Precipitable Water values in the upper 5-10 percent of daily climatological values. Ongoing thunderstorms/cloud cover will tend to mute diurnal destabilization in areas, but portions of southern/eastern New Mexico may see somewhat more aggressive destabilization pending cloud breaks. Will defer to the ample moisture/coverage of storms and rather favorable deep-layer flow field (40+ kt effective shear) and introduce a categorical Slight Risk for portions of New Mexico, where hail/wind risks, including some supercells, are most probable this afternoon through early evening. ...Northern Plains including NE/SD/ND... It still seems that residual cloud cover/outflow from last night's multiple rounds of thunderstorms will tend to temper destabilization later today within a modestly-sheared environment. Nevertheless, some isolated severe wind/hail potential will exist as storms redevelop across the High Plains later today. ...Midwest including portions of Illinois/Indiana... Overall severe potential should remain relatively limited (or at least highly uncertain), however some redevelopment and/or reintensification could occur across downstate portion of Illinois/Indiana, and/or farther north along the instability gradient across northeast Illinois/Chicagoland vicinity into northwest Indiana, where some air mass recovery is plausible. Will maintain low hail/wind probabilities regionally given some lingering severe potential, on a more conditional/uncertain basis with north-northwestward extent under the increasing influence of the upper ridge. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0303 PM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe wind and hail will be possible from the Southwest/southern Rockies, particularly over parts of New Mexico, into the northern Great Plains and a portion of the Midwest, mainly this afternoon and early evening. ...20Z Update... A few stronger elevated thunderstorms have persisted across northwest Indiana through early afternoon. These storms appear to be maintaining themselves as they move across western Indiana. Storms are currently on the eastern periphery of the instability which could limit longevity. However, strong mid-level flow is in place (45-50 knots around 4 km per LOT VWP) which will continue to support supercells and may help maintain storms even with limited instability. Only a slight southeast expansion was made to the Marginal Risk to account for areas downstream of the recently warned storms. Will maintain the Marginal risk farther west across eastern Illinois, but confidence is not that high that storms will form across this area. However, if they do, the environment would support strong to severe storms capable of large hail and wind gusts. Farther west, scattered thunderstorms have developed across New Mexico and are starting to move east. Weak to moderate instability and moderate to strong shear will support some severe weather potential with large hail and wind gusts as the primary threats. See MCD 2071 for additional information about the threat in this area. Across southeast Utah and southwest Colorado, several storms have developed with some apparent supercell structures. Increased ambient vorticity beneath the upper-level low has provided an environment apparently favorable for tornadoes. At least one well-developed tornado/landspout has been observed thus far. Added 2% tornado probabilities to this region as an additional threat could be possible from the same storm or a few other stronger cells in the region. ..Bentley.. 09/13/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1136 AM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025/ ...New Mexico and southern Rockies/High Plains... A prominent upper trough will continue to shift east-northeastward today and tonight over the Four Corners area and south-central Rockies. DPVA/cooling aloft and plentiful moisture preceding the trough will contribute to a relatively high coverage, and potentially multiple rounds, of thunderstorms regionally. The 12z observed sounding from El Paso featured Precipitable Water values in the upper 5-10 percent of daily climatological values. Ongoing thunderstorms/cloud cover will tend to mute diurnal destabilization in areas, but portions of southern/eastern New Mexico may see somewhat more aggressive destabilization pending cloud breaks. Will defer to the ample moisture/coverage of storms and rather favorable deep-layer flow field (40+ kt effective shear) and introduce a categorical Slight Risk for portions of New Mexico, where hail/wind risks, including some supercells, are most probable this afternoon through early evening. ...Northern Plains including NE/SD/ND... It still seems that residual cloud cover/outflow from last night's multiple rounds of thunderstorms will tend to temper destabilization later today within a modestly-sheared environment. Nevertheless, some isolated severe wind/hail potential will exist as storms redevelop across the High Plains later today. ...Midwest including portions of Illinois/Indiana... Overall severe potential should remain relatively limited (or at least highly uncertain), however some redevelopment and/or reintensification could occur across downstate portion of Illinois/Indiana, and/or farther north along the instability gradient across northeast Illinois/Chicagoland vicinity into northwest Indiana, where some air mass recovery is plausible. Will maintain low hail/wind probabilities regionally given some lingering severe potential, on a more conditional/uncertain basis with north-northwestward extent under the increasing influence of the upper ridge. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0303 PM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe wind and hail will be possible from the Southwest/southern Rockies, particularly over parts of New Mexico, into the northern Great Plains and a portion of the Midwest, mainly this afternoon and early evening. ...20Z Update... A few stronger elevated thunderstorms have persisted across northwest Indiana through early afternoon. These storms appear to be maintaining themselves as they move across western Indiana. Storms are currently on the eastern periphery of the instability which could limit longevity. However, strong mid-level flow is in place (45-50 knots around 4 km per LOT VWP) which will continue to support supercells and may help maintain storms even with limited instability. Only a slight southeast expansion was made to the Marginal Risk to account for areas downstream of the recently warned storms. Will maintain the Marginal risk farther west across eastern Illinois, but confidence is not that high that storms will form across this area. However, if they do, the environment would support strong to severe storms capable of large hail and wind gusts. Farther west, scattered thunderstorms have developed across New Mexico and are starting to move east. Weak to moderate instability and moderate to strong shear will support some severe weather potential with large hail and wind gusts as the primary threats. See MCD 2071 for additional information about the threat in this area. Across southeast Utah and southwest Colorado, several storms have developed with some apparent supercell structures. Increased ambient vorticity beneath the upper-level low has provided an environment apparently favorable for tornadoes. At least one well-developed tornado/landspout has been observed thus far. Added 2% tornado probabilities to this region as an additional threat could be possible from the same storm or a few other stronger cells in the region. ..Bentley.. 09/13/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1136 AM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025/ ...New Mexico and southern Rockies/High Plains... A prominent upper trough will continue to shift east-northeastward today and tonight over the Four Corners area and south-central Rockies. DPVA/cooling aloft and plentiful moisture preceding the trough will contribute to a relatively high coverage, and potentially multiple rounds, of thunderstorms regionally. The 12z observed sounding from El Paso featured Precipitable Water values in the upper 5-10 percent of daily climatological values. Ongoing thunderstorms/cloud cover will tend to mute diurnal destabilization in areas, but portions of southern/eastern New Mexico may see somewhat more aggressive destabilization pending cloud breaks. Will defer to the ample moisture/coverage of storms and rather favorable deep-layer flow field (40+ kt effective shear) and introduce a categorical Slight Risk for portions of New Mexico, where hail/wind risks, including some supercells, are most probable this afternoon through early evening. ...Northern Plains including NE/SD/ND... It still seems that residual cloud cover/outflow from last night's multiple rounds of thunderstorms will tend to temper destabilization later today within a modestly-sheared environment. Nevertheless, some isolated severe wind/hail potential will exist as storms redevelop across the High Plains later today. ...Midwest including portions of Illinois/Indiana... Overall severe potential should remain relatively limited (or at least highly uncertain), however some redevelopment and/or reintensification could occur across downstate portion of Illinois/Indiana, and/or farther north along the instability gradient across northeast Illinois/Chicagoland vicinity into northwest Indiana, where some air mass recovery is plausible. Will maintain low hail/wind probabilities regionally given some lingering severe potential, on a more conditional/uncertain basis with north-northwestward extent under the increasing influence of the upper ridge. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorm potential appears generally low on Monday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... The severe threat will remain low on Monday across the CONUS. A pair of weakening upper lows will shift northward across the Northern Rockies into Canada with westerly flow across the Plains and a building high across the eastern US. A weak surface low should develop northward from ND into Manitoba by Monday evening, with a weak front extending southward from this low across parts of the northern/central Plains. While widely scattered thunderstorm development is expected across the central/northern Plains across a moderately unstable warm sector, shear will be displaced to the north with the upper-level flow which should limit any organized severe threat. Elsewhere, a few thunderstorms are also expected to develop across the southern High Plains near the surface trough. Forcing and shear for organization will also be negligible in this region. Widespread thunderstorms are also expected near the upper-lows across the northern Rockies. Weaker instability and weak shear in this region will keep severe potential low. ..Thornton.. 09/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorm potential appears generally low on Monday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... The severe threat will remain low on Monday across the CONUS. A pair of weakening upper lows will shift northward across the Northern Rockies into Canada with westerly flow across the Plains and a building high across the eastern US. A weak surface low should develop northward from ND into Manitoba by Monday evening, with a weak front extending southward from this low across parts of the northern/central Plains. While widely scattered thunderstorm development is expected across the central/northern Plains across a moderately unstable warm sector, shear will be displaced to the north with the upper-level flow which should limit any organized severe threat. Elsewhere, a few thunderstorms are also expected to develop across the southern High Plains near the surface trough. Forcing and shear for organization will also be negligible in this region. Widespread thunderstorms are also expected near the upper-lows across the northern Rockies. Weaker instability and weak shear in this region will keep severe potential low. ..Thornton.. 09/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorm potential appears generally low on Monday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... The severe threat will remain low on Monday across the CONUS. A pair of weakening upper lows will shift northward across the Northern Rockies into Canada with westerly flow across the Plains and a building high across the eastern US. A weak surface low should develop northward from ND into Manitoba by Monday evening, with a weak front extending southward from this low across parts of the northern/central Plains. While widely scattered thunderstorm development is expected across the central/northern Plains across a moderately unstable warm sector, shear will be displaced to the north with the upper-level flow which should limit any organized severe threat. Elsewhere, a few thunderstorms are also expected to develop across the southern High Plains near the surface trough. Forcing and shear for organization will also be negligible in this region. Widespread thunderstorms are also expected near the upper-lows across the northern Rockies. Weaker instability and weak shear in this region will keep severe potential low. ..Thornton.. 09/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorm potential appears generally low on Monday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... The severe threat will remain low on Monday across the CONUS. A pair of weakening upper lows will shift northward across the Northern Rockies into Canada with westerly flow across the Plains and a building high across the eastern US. A weak surface low should develop northward from ND into Manitoba by Monday evening, with a weak front extending southward from this low across parts of the northern/central Plains. While widely scattered thunderstorm development is expected across the central/northern Plains across a moderately unstable warm sector, shear will be displaced to the north with the upper-level flow which should limit any organized severe threat. Elsewhere, a few thunderstorms are also expected to develop across the southern High Plains near the surface trough. Forcing and shear for organization will also be negligible in this region. Widespread thunderstorms are also expected near the upper-lows across the northern Rockies. Weaker instability and weak shear in this region will keep severe potential low. ..Thornton.. 09/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorm potential appears generally low on Monday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... The severe threat will remain low on Monday across the CONUS. A pair of weakening upper lows will shift northward across the Northern Rockies into Canada with westerly flow across the Plains and a building high across the eastern US. A weak surface low should develop northward from ND into Manitoba by Monday evening, with a weak front extending southward from this low across parts of the northern/central Plains. While widely scattered thunderstorm development is expected across the central/northern Plains across a moderately unstable warm sector, shear will be displaced to the north with the upper-level flow which should limit any organized severe threat. Elsewhere, a few thunderstorms are also expected to develop across the southern High Plains near the surface trough. Forcing and shear for organization will also be negligible in this region. Widespread thunderstorms are also expected near the upper-lows across the northern Rockies. Weaker instability and weak shear in this region will keep severe potential low. ..Thornton.. 09/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorm potential appears generally low on Monday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... The severe threat will remain low on Monday across the CONUS. A pair of weakening upper lows will shift northward across the Northern Rockies into Canada with westerly flow across the Plains and a building high across the eastern US. A weak surface low should develop northward from ND into Manitoba by Monday evening, with a weak front extending southward from this low across parts of the northern/central Plains. While widely scattered thunderstorm development is expected across the central/northern Plains across a moderately unstable warm sector, shear will be displaced to the north with the upper-level flow which should limit any organized severe threat. Elsewhere, a few thunderstorms are also expected to develop across the southern High Plains near the surface trough. Forcing and shear for organization will also be negligible in this region. Widespread thunderstorms are also expected near the upper-lows across the northern Rockies. Weaker instability and weak shear in this region will keep severe potential low. ..Thornton.. 09/13/2025 Read more

MD 2070 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EASTERN UTAH...WESTERN COLORADO...EXTREME NORTHEAST ARIZONA...AND FAR NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO
Mesoscale Discussion 2070 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0104 PM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025 Areas affected...eastern Utah...western Colorado...extreme northeast Arizona...and far northwest New Mexico Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 131804Z - 132000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to increase in coverage and intensity through the afternoon. The strongest storms will be capable of producing small hail and gusty thunderstorm outflows. A watch is currently not expected. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms will continue to develop through the afternoon across the region in response to large-scale ascent associated with a seasonally strong trough moving across the Intermountain West. Modest diurnal heating will contribute to temperatures warming into the low 70Fs across the region beneath cool mid-levels. The result will be low-to-mid-level lapse rates on the order of 7-8.5 C/km. These lapse rates and the presence of upper 40Fs to low 50Fs dewpoints across the area, will yield most unstable CAPE values on the order of 1000, to perhaps 1500, J/kg. Effective-layer shear increases from north to south as you get closer to the embedded speed max near the basal region of the trough. However, the colder mid-level temperatures will be displaced a bit farther north. Despite the best of both being a bit offset, sufficient overlap will give rise to at least a marginal severe hail and wind threat with the strongest storms. A watch is currently not expected, but trends will continue to be monitored. ..Marsh/Guyer.. 09/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PUB...ABQ...GJT...FGZ...SLC... LAT...LON 36990948 37551001 39351080 39911048 40300920 40270673 38770679 37310691 36630782 36230890 36990948 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Update... No changes were made to Sunday's forecast. Please see the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Barnes.. 09/13/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the Plains states as a second mid-level trough progresses toward the northern Rockies tomorrow (Sunday). Upper support with the western upper trough will encourage scattered thunderstorm development across portions of the Northern Rockies. Furthermore, breezy but marginally dry surface conditions are also expected across the Great Basin. However, fuel receptiveness for wildfire spread across both regions is expected to be relatively poor, with fire weather highlights withheld. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Update... No changes were made to Sunday's forecast. Please see the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Barnes.. 09/13/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the Plains states as a second mid-level trough progresses toward the northern Rockies tomorrow (Sunday). Upper support with the western upper trough will encourage scattered thunderstorm development across portions of the Northern Rockies. Furthermore, breezy but marginally dry surface conditions are also expected across the Great Basin. However, fuel receptiveness for wildfire spread across both regions is expected to be relatively poor, with fire weather highlights withheld. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Update... No changes were made to Sunday's forecast. Please see the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Barnes.. 09/13/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the Plains states as a second mid-level trough progresses toward the northern Rockies tomorrow (Sunday). Upper support with the western upper trough will encourage scattered thunderstorm development across portions of the Northern Rockies. Furthermore, breezy but marginally dry surface conditions are also expected across the Great Basin. However, fuel receptiveness for wildfire spread across both regions is expected to be relatively poor, with fire weather highlights withheld. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Update... No changes were made to Sunday's forecast. Please see the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Barnes.. 09/13/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the Plains states as a second mid-level trough progresses toward the northern Rockies tomorrow (Sunday). Upper support with the western upper trough will encourage scattered thunderstorm development across portions of the Northern Rockies. Furthermore, breezy but marginally dry surface conditions are also expected across the Great Basin. However, fuel receptiveness for wildfire spread across both regions is expected to be relatively poor, with fire weather highlights withheld. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more