Aggregator

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND OVER MUCH OF VIRGINIA INTO NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of South Dakota and Nebraska into southern Minnesota and Iowa. Additional strong to severe storms may occur across portions of West Virginia, Virginia and North Carolina. ...Northern Plains... A midlevel, low-amplitude wave will move from the Dakotas into MN during the day, with a cold front gradually moving south from western SD into western NE. Southwest winds at 850 mb will aid lift and theta-e advection from ND into northern MN, with early day elevated thunderstorms expected. As heating occurs, low pressure will develop from south-central SD into central NE, with convergence focused in this region. At least isolated cells are expected from southeast SD into central NE by 00Z, with hail and localized wind potential. Additional cells will likely drop southeast out of eastern WY during the evening, with localized hail/wind potential. Model solutions vary regarding MCS potential during the evening from SD/NE into southern MN/IA, but it does appear likely at least localized corridors/clusters of storms will persist through the night as capping will not be particularly strong, and southwest 850 mb flow aids warm advection. Damaging gusts are conditionally possible. ...WV/VA into NC... Neutral height tendencies will exist on Friday as an upper high remains just to the south, and an upper trough exits the northeastern states. Westerly midlevel flow will average 25-35 kt as a weak surface trough develops near the VA/NC border during the afternoon. Daytime heating combined with 70s F dewpoints will lead tall CAPE profiles with over 2000 J/kg MLCAPE and precipitable water over 2.00". Storms will form over the higher terrain along the WV/VA border and spread east during the afternoon. Additional development is likely near the surface trough into southern VA to northern NC. Given favorable time of day coincident with peak heating, locally damaging outflow winds may occur. ..Jewell.. 07/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND OVER MUCH OF VIRGINIA INTO NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of South Dakota and Nebraska into southern Minnesota and Iowa. Additional strong to severe storms may occur across portions of West Virginia, Virginia and North Carolina. ...Northern Plains... A midlevel, low-amplitude wave will move from the Dakotas into MN during the day, with a cold front gradually moving south from western SD into western NE. Southwest winds at 850 mb will aid lift and theta-e advection from ND into northern MN, with early day elevated thunderstorms expected. As heating occurs, low pressure will develop from south-central SD into central NE, with convergence focused in this region. At least isolated cells are expected from southeast SD into central NE by 00Z, with hail and localized wind potential. Additional cells will likely drop southeast out of eastern WY during the evening, with localized hail/wind potential. Model solutions vary regarding MCS potential during the evening from SD/NE into southern MN/IA, but it does appear likely at least localized corridors/clusters of storms will persist through the night as capping will not be particularly strong, and southwest 850 mb flow aids warm advection. Damaging gusts are conditionally possible. ...WV/VA into NC... Neutral height tendencies will exist on Friday as an upper high remains just to the south, and an upper trough exits the northeastern states. Westerly midlevel flow will average 25-35 kt as a weak surface trough develops near the VA/NC border during the afternoon. Daytime heating combined with 70s F dewpoints will lead tall CAPE profiles with over 2000 J/kg MLCAPE and precipitable water over 2.00". Storms will form over the higher terrain along the WV/VA border and spread east during the afternoon. Additional development is likely near the surface trough into southern VA to northern NC. Given favorable time of day coincident with peak heating, locally damaging outflow winds may occur. ..Jewell.. 07/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND OVER MUCH OF VIRGINIA INTO NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of South Dakota and Nebraska into southern Minnesota and Iowa. Additional strong to severe storms may occur across portions of West Virginia, Virginia and North Carolina. ...Northern Plains... A midlevel, low-amplitude wave will move from the Dakotas into MN during the day, with a cold front gradually moving south from western SD into western NE. Southwest winds at 850 mb will aid lift and theta-e advection from ND into northern MN, with early day elevated thunderstorms expected. As heating occurs, low pressure will develop from south-central SD into central NE, with convergence focused in this region. At least isolated cells are expected from southeast SD into central NE by 00Z, with hail and localized wind potential. Additional cells will likely drop southeast out of eastern WY during the evening, with localized hail/wind potential. Model solutions vary regarding MCS potential during the evening from SD/NE into southern MN/IA, but it does appear likely at least localized corridors/clusters of storms will persist through the night as capping will not be particularly strong, and southwest 850 mb flow aids warm advection. Damaging gusts are conditionally possible. ...WV/VA into NC... Neutral height tendencies will exist on Friday as an upper high remains just to the south, and an upper trough exits the northeastern states. Westerly midlevel flow will average 25-35 kt as a weak surface trough develops near the VA/NC border during the afternoon. Daytime heating combined with 70s F dewpoints will lead tall CAPE profiles with over 2000 J/kg MLCAPE and precipitable water over 2.00". Storms will form over the higher terrain along the WV/VA border and spread east during the afternoon. Additional development is likely near the surface trough into southern VA to northern NC. Given favorable time of day coincident with peak heating, locally damaging outflow winds may occur. ..Jewell.. 07/17/2025 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 171718
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Thu Jul 17 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Gibbs

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1159 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...Dry Thunderstorms... Southerly flow on the eastern fringe of a mid-level low entering southern California will aid in northward transport of monsoon moisture into the Desert Southwest and Four Corners region. Isolated dry thunderstorms are expected on the northern periphery of the deeper moisture now across AZ and NM, where surface dewpoints are in the upper 40s to 60s. The isolated dry thunderstorm threat was contracted overall across the Great Basin, UT and western CO/southwestern WY owing to latest model guidance, current position of the monsoon moisture plume, alignment of remaining receptive fuels as well as to account for recent precipitation footprints over the last 48 hours. ..Williams.. 07/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1257 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will glance the Pacific Northwest bringing an increase of westerly flow aloft across the Cascades into the Cascade Gaps. As a result, areas of increased westerly downslope flow can be expected along and just east of the Cascades in the Columbia River Basin. Sustained winds 10-15 mph (locally higher in the Cascade Gaps) overlap with afternoon relative humidity reductions to around 10-20 percent. An Elevated delineation was added with this outlook to support this potential. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A closed low off the coast of Baja California will bring moisture northward across portions of the Southwest into the Great Basin. On the fringe of this deeper moisture, isolated dry thunderstorm potential will continue across portions of western Colorado into western Wyoming, Utah, far southern Idaho and eastern Nevada. Here precipitable water values drop to around 0.50" or less with more limited coverage. Some mix of wet/dry thunderstorms will be possible in central Utah and west-central Colorado but storm motions around 15-20 kts will likely yield little measurable precipitation. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1159 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...Dry Thunderstorms... Southerly flow on the eastern fringe of a mid-level low entering southern California will aid in northward transport of monsoon moisture into the Desert Southwest and Four Corners region. Isolated dry thunderstorms are expected on the northern periphery of the deeper moisture now across AZ and NM, where surface dewpoints are in the upper 40s to 60s. The isolated dry thunderstorm threat was contracted overall across the Great Basin, UT and western CO/southwestern WY owing to latest model guidance, current position of the monsoon moisture plume, alignment of remaining receptive fuels as well as to account for recent precipitation footprints over the last 48 hours. ..Williams.. 07/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1257 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will glance the Pacific Northwest bringing an increase of westerly flow aloft across the Cascades into the Cascade Gaps. As a result, areas of increased westerly downslope flow can be expected along and just east of the Cascades in the Columbia River Basin. Sustained winds 10-15 mph (locally higher in the Cascade Gaps) overlap with afternoon relative humidity reductions to around 10-20 percent. An Elevated delineation was added with this outlook to support this potential. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A closed low off the coast of Baja California will bring moisture northward across portions of the Southwest into the Great Basin. On the fringe of this deeper moisture, isolated dry thunderstorm potential will continue across portions of western Colorado into western Wyoming, Utah, far southern Idaho and eastern Nevada. Here precipitable water values drop to around 0.50" or less with more limited coverage. Some mix of wet/dry thunderstorms will be possible in central Utah and west-central Colorado but storm motions around 15-20 kts will likely yield little measurable precipitation. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1159 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...Dry Thunderstorms... Southerly flow on the eastern fringe of a mid-level low entering southern California will aid in northward transport of monsoon moisture into the Desert Southwest and Four Corners region. Isolated dry thunderstorms are expected on the northern periphery of the deeper moisture now across AZ and NM, where surface dewpoints are in the upper 40s to 60s. The isolated dry thunderstorm threat was contracted overall across the Great Basin, UT and western CO/southwestern WY owing to latest model guidance, current position of the monsoon moisture plume, alignment of remaining receptive fuels as well as to account for recent precipitation footprints over the last 48 hours. ..Williams.. 07/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1257 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will glance the Pacific Northwest bringing an increase of westerly flow aloft across the Cascades into the Cascade Gaps. As a result, areas of increased westerly downslope flow can be expected along and just east of the Cascades in the Columbia River Basin. Sustained winds 10-15 mph (locally higher in the Cascade Gaps) overlap with afternoon relative humidity reductions to around 10-20 percent. An Elevated delineation was added with this outlook to support this potential. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A closed low off the coast of Baja California will bring moisture northward across portions of the Southwest into the Great Basin. On the fringe of this deeper moisture, isolated dry thunderstorm potential will continue across portions of western Colorado into western Wyoming, Utah, far southern Idaho and eastern Nevada. Here precipitable water values drop to around 0.50" or less with more limited coverage. Some mix of wet/dry thunderstorms will be possible in central Utah and west-central Colorado but storm motions around 15-20 kts will likely yield little measurable precipitation. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1159 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...Dry Thunderstorms... Southerly flow on the eastern fringe of a mid-level low entering southern California will aid in northward transport of monsoon moisture into the Desert Southwest and Four Corners region. Isolated dry thunderstorms are expected on the northern periphery of the deeper moisture now across AZ and NM, where surface dewpoints are in the upper 40s to 60s. The isolated dry thunderstorm threat was contracted overall across the Great Basin, UT and western CO/southwestern WY owing to latest model guidance, current position of the monsoon moisture plume, alignment of remaining receptive fuels as well as to account for recent precipitation footprints over the last 48 hours. ..Williams.. 07/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1257 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will glance the Pacific Northwest bringing an increase of westerly flow aloft across the Cascades into the Cascade Gaps. As a result, areas of increased westerly downslope flow can be expected along and just east of the Cascades in the Columbia River Basin. Sustained winds 10-15 mph (locally higher in the Cascade Gaps) overlap with afternoon relative humidity reductions to around 10-20 percent. An Elevated delineation was added with this outlook to support this potential. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A closed low off the coast of Baja California will bring moisture northward across portions of the Southwest into the Great Basin. On the fringe of this deeper moisture, isolated dry thunderstorm potential will continue across portions of western Colorado into western Wyoming, Utah, far southern Idaho and eastern Nevada. Here precipitable water values drop to around 0.50" or less with more limited coverage. Some mix of wet/dry thunderstorms will be possible in central Utah and west-central Colorado but storm motions around 15-20 kts will likely yield little measurable precipitation. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1159 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...Dry Thunderstorms... Southerly flow on the eastern fringe of a mid-level low entering southern California will aid in northward transport of monsoon moisture into the Desert Southwest and Four Corners region. Isolated dry thunderstorms are expected on the northern periphery of the deeper moisture now across AZ and NM, where surface dewpoints are in the upper 40s to 60s. The isolated dry thunderstorm threat was contracted overall across the Great Basin, UT and western CO/southwestern WY owing to latest model guidance, current position of the monsoon moisture plume, alignment of remaining receptive fuels as well as to account for recent precipitation footprints over the last 48 hours. ..Williams.. 07/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1257 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will glance the Pacific Northwest bringing an increase of westerly flow aloft across the Cascades into the Cascade Gaps. As a result, areas of increased westerly downslope flow can be expected along and just east of the Cascades in the Columbia River Basin. Sustained winds 10-15 mph (locally higher in the Cascade Gaps) overlap with afternoon relative humidity reductions to around 10-20 percent. An Elevated delineation was added with this outlook to support this potential. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A closed low off the coast of Baja California will bring moisture northward across portions of the Southwest into the Great Basin. On the fringe of this deeper moisture, isolated dry thunderstorm potential will continue across portions of western Colorado into western Wyoming, Utah, far southern Idaho and eastern Nevada. Here precipitable water values drop to around 0.50" or less with more limited coverage. Some mix of wet/dry thunderstorms will be possible in central Utah and west-central Colorado but storm motions around 15-20 kts will likely yield little measurable precipitation. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1159 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...Dry Thunderstorms... Southerly flow on the eastern fringe of a mid-level low entering southern California will aid in northward transport of monsoon moisture into the Desert Southwest and Four Corners region. Isolated dry thunderstorms are expected on the northern periphery of the deeper moisture now across AZ and NM, where surface dewpoints are in the upper 40s to 60s. The isolated dry thunderstorm threat was contracted overall across the Great Basin, UT and western CO/southwestern WY owing to latest model guidance, current position of the monsoon moisture plume, alignment of remaining receptive fuels as well as to account for recent precipitation footprints over the last 48 hours. ..Williams.. 07/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1257 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will glance the Pacific Northwest bringing an increase of westerly flow aloft across the Cascades into the Cascade Gaps. As a result, areas of increased westerly downslope flow can be expected along and just east of the Cascades in the Columbia River Basin. Sustained winds 10-15 mph (locally higher in the Cascade Gaps) overlap with afternoon relative humidity reductions to around 10-20 percent. An Elevated delineation was added with this outlook to support this potential. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A closed low off the coast of Baja California will bring moisture northward across portions of the Southwest into the Great Basin. On the fringe of this deeper moisture, isolated dry thunderstorm potential will continue across portions of western Colorado into western Wyoming, Utah, far southern Idaho and eastern Nevada. Here precipitable water values drop to around 0.50" or less with more limited coverage. Some mix of wet/dry thunderstorms will be possible in central Utah and west-central Colorado but storm motions around 15-20 kts will likely yield little measurable precipitation. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1159 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...Dry Thunderstorms... Southerly flow on the eastern fringe of a mid-level low entering southern California will aid in northward transport of monsoon moisture into the Desert Southwest and Four Corners region. Isolated dry thunderstorms are expected on the northern periphery of the deeper moisture now across AZ and NM, where surface dewpoints are in the upper 40s to 60s. The isolated dry thunderstorm threat was contracted overall across the Great Basin, UT and western CO/southwestern WY owing to latest model guidance, current position of the monsoon moisture plume, alignment of remaining receptive fuels as well as to account for recent precipitation footprints over the last 48 hours. ..Williams.. 07/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1257 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will glance the Pacific Northwest bringing an increase of westerly flow aloft across the Cascades into the Cascade Gaps. As a result, areas of increased westerly downslope flow can be expected along and just east of the Cascades in the Columbia River Basin. Sustained winds 10-15 mph (locally higher in the Cascade Gaps) overlap with afternoon relative humidity reductions to around 10-20 percent. An Elevated delineation was added with this outlook to support this potential. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A closed low off the coast of Baja California will bring moisture northward across portions of the Southwest into the Great Basin. On the fringe of this deeper moisture, isolated dry thunderstorm potential will continue across portions of western Colorado into western Wyoming, Utah, far southern Idaho and eastern Nevada. Here precipitable water values drop to around 0.50" or less with more limited coverage. Some mix of wet/dry thunderstorms will be possible in central Utah and west-central Colorado but storm motions around 15-20 kts will likely yield little measurable precipitation. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1159 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...Dry Thunderstorms... Southerly flow on the eastern fringe of a mid-level low entering southern California will aid in northward transport of monsoon moisture into the Desert Southwest and Four Corners region. Isolated dry thunderstorms are expected on the northern periphery of the deeper moisture now across AZ and NM, where surface dewpoints are in the upper 40s to 60s. The isolated dry thunderstorm threat was contracted overall across the Great Basin, UT and western CO/southwestern WY owing to latest model guidance, current position of the monsoon moisture plume, alignment of remaining receptive fuels as well as to account for recent precipitation footprints over the last 48 hours. ..Williams.. 07/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1257 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will glance the Pacific Northwest bringing an increase of westerly flow aloft across the Cascades into the Cascade Gaps. As a result, areas of increased westerly downslope flow can be expected along and just east of the Cascades in the Columbia River Basin. Sustained winds 10-15 mph (locally higher in the Cascade Gaps) overlap with afternoon relative humidity reductions to around 10-20 percent. An Elevated delineation was added with this outlook to support this potential. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A closed low off the coast of Baja California will bring moisture northward across portions of the Southwest into the Great Basin. On the fringe of this deeper moisture, isolated dry thunderstorm potential will continue across portions of western Colorado into western Wyoming, Utah, far southern Idaho and eastern Nevada. Here precipitable water values drop to around 0.50" or less with more limited coverage. Some mix of wet/dry thunderstorms will be possible in central Utah and west-central Colorado but storm motions around 15-20 kts will likely yield little measurable precipitation. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1159 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...Dry Thunderstorms... Southerly flow on the eastern fringe of a mid-level low entering southern California will aid in northward transport of monsoon moisture into the Desert Southwest and Four Corners region. Isolated dry thunderstorms are expected on the northern periphery of the deeper moisture now across AZ and NM, where surface dewpoints are in the upper 40s to 60s. The isolated dry thunderstorm threat was contracted overall across the Great Basin, UT and western CO/southwestern WY owing to latest model guidance, current position of the monsoon moisture plume, alignment of remaining receptive fuels as well as to account for recent precipitation footprints over the last 48 hours. ..Williams.. 07/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1257 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will glance the Pacific Northwest bringing an increase of westerly flow aloft across the Cascades into the Cascade Gaps. As a result, areas of increased westerly downslope flow can be expected along and just east of the Cascades in the Columbia River Basin. Sustained winds 10-15 mph (locally higher in the Cascade Gaps) overlap with afternoon relative humidity reductions to around 10-20 percent. An Elevated delineation was added with this outlook to support this potential. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A closed low off the coast of Baja California will bring moisture northward across portions of the Southwest into the Great Basin. On the fringe of this deeper moisture, isolated dry thunderstorm potential will continue across portions of western Colorado into western Wyoming, Utah, far southern Idaho and eastern Nevada. Here precipitable water values drop to around 0.50" or less with more limited coverage. Some mix of wet/dry thunderstorms will be possible in central Utah and west-central Colorado but storm motions around 15-20 kts will likely yield little measurable precipitation. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1159 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...Dry Thunderstorms... Southerly flow on the eastern fringe of a mid-level low entering southern California will aid in northward transport of monsoon moisture into the Desert Southwest and Four Corners region. Isolated dry thunderstorms are expected on the northern periphery of the deeper moisture now across AZ and NM, where surface dewpoints are in the upper 40s to 60s. The isolated dry thunderstorm threat was contracted overall across the Great Basin, UT and western CO/southwestern WY owing to latest model guidance, current position of the monsoon moisture plume, alignment of remaining receptive fuels as well as to account for recent precipitation footprints over the last 48 hours. ..Williams.. 07/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1257 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will glance the Pacific Northwest bringing an increase of westerly flow aloft across the Cascades into the Cascade Gaps. As a result, areas of increased westerly downslope flow can be expected along and just east of the Cascades in the Columbia River Basin. Sustained winds 10-15 mph (locally higher in the Cascade Gaps) overlap with afternoon relative humidity reductions to around 10-20 percent. An Elevated delineation was added with this outlook to support this potential. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A closed low off the coast of Baja California will bring moisture northward across portions of the Southwest into the Great Basin. On the fringe of this deeper moisture, isolated dry thunderstorm potential will continue across portions of western Colorado into western Wyoming, Utah, far southern Idaho and eastern Nevada. Here precipitable water values drop to around 0.50" or less with more limited coverage. Some mix of wet/dry thunderstorms will be possible in central Utah and west-central Colorado but storm motions around 15-20 kts will likely yield little measurable precipitation. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1159 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...Dry Thunderstorms... Southerly flow on the eastern fringe of a mid-level low entering southern California will aid in northward transport of monsoon moisture into the Desert Southwest and Four Corners region. Isolated dry thunderstorms are expected on the northern periphery of the deeper moisture now across AZ and NM, where surface dewpoints are in the upper 40s to 60s. The isolated dry thunderstorm threat was contracted overall across the Great Basin, UT and western CO/southwestern WY owing to latest model guidance, current position of the monsoon moisture plume, alignment of remaining receptive fuels as well as to account for recent precipitation footprints over the last 48 hours. ..Williams.. 07/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1257 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will glance the Pacific Northwest bringing an increase of westerly flow aloft across the Cascades into the Cascade Gaps. As a result, areas of increased westerly downslope flow can be expected along and just east of the Cascades in the Columbia River Basin. Sustained winds 10-15 mph (locally higher in the Cascade Gaps) overlap with afternoon relative humidity reductions to around 10-20 percent. An Elevated delineation was added with this outlook to support this potential. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A closed low off the coast of Baja California will bring moisture northward across portions of the Southwest into the Great Basin. On the fringe of this deeper moisture, isolated dry thunderstorm potential will continue across portions of western Colorado into western Wyoming, Utah, far southern Idaho and eastern Nevada. Here precipitable water values drop to around 0.50" or less with more limited coverage. Some mix of wet/dry thunderstorms will be possible in central Utah and west-central Colorado but storm motions around 15-20 kts will likely yield little measurable precipitation. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1159 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...Dry Thunderstorms... Southerly flow on the eastern fringe of a mid-level low entering southern California will aid in northward transport of monsoon moisture into the Desert Southwest and Four Corners region. Isolated dry thunderstorms are expected on the northern periphery of the deeper moisture now across AZ and NM, where surface dewpoints are in the upper 40s to 60s. The isolated dry thunderstorm threat was contracted overall across the Great Basin, UT and western CO/southwestern WY owing to latest model guidance, current position of the monsoon moisture plume, alignment of remaining receptive fuels as well as to account for recent precipitation footprints over the last 48 hours. ..Williams.. 07/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1257 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will glance the Pacific Northwest bringing an increase of westerly flow aloft across the Cascades into the Cascade Gaps. As a result, areas of increased westerly downslope flow can be expected along and just east of the Cascades in the Columbia River Basin. Sustained winds 10-15 mph (locally higher in the Cascade Gaps) overlap with afternoon relative humidity reductions to around 10-20 percent. An Elevated delineation was added with this outlook to support this potential. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A closed low off the coast of Baja California will bring moisture northward across portions of the Southwest into the Great Basin. On the fringe of this deeper moisture, isolated dry thunderstorm potential will continue across portions of western Colorado into western Wyoming, Utah, far southern Idaho and eastern Nevada. Here precipitable water values drop to around 0.50" or less with more limited coverage. Some mix of wet/dry thunderstorms will be possible in central Utah and west-central Colorado but storm motions around 15-20 kts will likely yield little measurable precipitation. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds and a tornado are possible across northern New England this afternoon. A confined corridor of large hail and severe gusts appears possible from north-central Montana to southwest North Dakota this evening. ...Northeast... Midday visible-satellite imagery shows cloud breaks and surface observations show warming temperatures which imply a destabilizing airmass. A lead, convectively enhanced disturbance evident in radar/satellite imagery, is moving east across southern Quebec, while an upstream larger-scale mid-level trough continues eastward across Ontario and into Quebec later today. A cyclone will develop northeast from eastern Ontario into eastern Quebec while a cold front pushes through the Lower Great Lakes and through much of the Northeast through mid evening. The deep moisture through much of the troposphere and weak lapse rate profiles, which were sampled by the 12 UTC Buffalo and Albany, NY raobs, will undergo moderate destabilization by early to mid afternoon. Although forcing for ascent will favor Quebec into northern New England, scattered thunderstorms will likely develop from Maine southward into southern New England. The greatest potential for some organized storms will favor northern New England where stronger effective shear (30-40 kt) and adequate buoyancy will promote a wind-damage threat with the stronger storms. Forecast sounding over northern Maine show enlarged hodographs for a few hours, which may aid in low-level mesocyclone development and perhaps a risk for a tornado. Lower coverage of severe is forecast farther south where weaker shear will tend to limit storm intensity. The severe activity will likely diminish by the early to mid evening. ...Northern High Plains... Model guidance continues to show a focused corridor of supercell thunderstorm potential from north-central MT to southwest ND, mainly this evening. Water-vapor imagery shows a mid-level shortwave trough rotating southeastward across the southern part of the Canadian Rockies moving towards the northern High Plains. Forecast soundings this afternoon show elongated hodographs amidst modest buoyancy, which would support the development of a supercell or two during the evening. Large hail is the primary hazard with this activity but severe gusts may occur on a localized basis. An isolated hail/wind risk may persist along the ND/SD border vicinity overnight. ...Mid-Atlantic to the Southern High Plains... A surface front draped over the south-central Plains east-northeastward into the mid MS/OH Valleys will focus scattered thunderstorm activity this afternoon. The eastern part of this broader region over the Mid-Atlantic into the OH Valley will be displaced from the mid-level trough over influencing storm activity over the Northeast. A remnant MCV and outflow from overnight storms in the MO/KS/OK vicinity will aid in developing storms and perhaps localized threats for sporadic hail/wind mainly this afternoon. Isolated damaging winds may also occur with thunderstorms that develop east of the central Appalachians this afternoon, even though coverage should be somewhat less. ..Smith/Lyons.. 07/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds and a tornado are possible across northern New England this afternoon. A confined corridor of large hail and severe gusts appears possible from north-central Montana to southwest North Dakota this evening. ...Northeast... Midday visible-satellite imagery shows cloud breaks and surface observations show warming temperatures which imply a destabilizing airmass. A lead, convectively enhanced disturbance evident in radar/satellite imagery, is moving east across southern Quebec, while an upstream larger-scale mid-level trough continues eastward across Ontario and into Quebec later today. A cyclone will develop northeast from eastern Ontario into eastern Quebec while a cold front pushes through the Lower Great Lakes and through much of the Northeast through mid evening. The deep moisture through much of the troposphere and weak lapse rate profiles, which were sampled by the 12 UTC Buffalo and Albany, NY raobs, will undergo moderate destabilization by early to mid afternoon. Although forcing for ascent will favor Quebec into northern New England, scattered thunderstorms will likely develop from Maine southward into southern New England. The greatest potential for some organized storms will favor northern New England where stronger effective shear (30-40 kt) and adequate buoyancy will promote a wind-damage threat with the stronger storms. Forecast sounding over northern Maine show enlarged hodographs for a few hours, which may aid in low-level mesocyclone development and perhaps a risk for a tornado. Lower coverage of severe is forecast farther south where weaker shear will tend to limit storm intensity. The severe activity will likely diminish by the early to mid evening. ...Northern High Plains... Model guidance continues to show a focused corridor of supercell thunderstorm potential from north-central MT to southwest ND, mainly this evening. Water-vapor imagery shows a mid-level shortwave trough rotating southeastward across the southern part of the Canadian Rockies moving towards the northern High Plains. Forecast soundings this afternoon show elongated hodographs amidst modest buoyancy, which would support the development of a supercell or two during the evening. Large hail is the primary hazard with this activity but severe gusts may occur on a localized basis. An isolated hail/wind risk may persist along the ND/SD border vicinity overnight. ...Mid-Atlantic to the Southern High Plains... A surface front draped over the south-central Plains east-northeastward into the mid MS/OH Valleys will focus scattered thunderstorm activity this afternoon. The eastern part of this broader region over the Mid-Atlantic into the OH Valley will be displaced from the mid-level trough over influencing storm activity over the Northeast. A remnant MCV and outflow from overnight storms in the MO/KS/OK vicinity will aid in developing storms and perhaps localized threats for sporadic hail/wind mainly this afternoon. Isolated damaging winds may also occur with thunderstorms that develop east of the central Appalachians this afternoon, even though coverage should be somewhat less. ..Smith/Lyons.. 07/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds and a tornado are possible across northern New England this afternoon. A confined corridor of large hail and severe gusts appears possible from north-central Montana to southwest North Dakota this evening. ...Northeast... Midday visible-satellite imagery shows cloud breaks and surface observations show warming temperatures which imply a destabilizing airmass. A lead, convectively enhanced disturbance evident in radar/satellite imagery, is moving east across southern Quebec, while an upstream larger-scale mid-level trough continues eastward across Ontario and into Quebec later today. A cyclone will develop northeast from eastern Ontario into eastern Quebec while a cold front pushes through the Lower Great Lakes and through much of the Northeast through mid evening. The deep moisture through much of the troposphere and weak lapse rate profiles, which were sampled by the 12 UTC Buffalo and Albany, NY raobs, will undergo moderate destabilization by early to mid afternoon. Although forcing for ascent will favor Quebec into northern New England, scattered thunderstorms will likely develop from Maine southward into southern New England. The greatest potential for some organized storms will favor northern New England where stronger effective shear (30-40 kt) and adequate buoyancy will promote a wind-damage threat with the stronger storms. Forecast sounding over northern Maine show enlarged hodographs for a few hours, which may aid in low-level mesocyclone development and perhaps a risk for a tornado. Lower coverage of severe is forecast farther south where weaker shear will tend to limit storm intensity. The severe activity will likely diminish by the early to mid evening. ...Northern High Plains... Model guidance continues to show a focused corridor of supercell thunderstorm potential from north-central MT to southwest ND, mainly this evening. Water-vapor imagery shows a mid-level shortwave trough rotating southeastward across the southern part of the Canadian Rockies moving towards the northern High Plains. Forecast soundings this afternoon show elongated hodographs amidst modest buoyancy, which would support the development of a supercell or two during the evening. Large hail is the primary hazard with this activity but severe gusts may occur on a localized basis. An isolated hail/wind risk may persist along the ND/SD border vicinity overnight. ...Mid-Atlantic to the Southern High Plains... A surface front draped over the south-central Plains east-northeastward into the mid MS/OH Valleys will focus scattered thunderstorm activity this afternoon. The eastern part of this broader region over the Mid-Atlantic into the OH Valley will be displaced from the mid-level trough over influencing storm activity over the Northeast. A remnant MCV and outflow from overnight storms in the MO/KS/OK vicinity will aid in developing storms and perhaps localized threats for sporadic hail/wind mainly this afternoon. Isolated damaging winds may also occur with thunderstorms that develop east of the central Appalachians this afternoon, even though coverage should be somewhat less. ..Smith/Lyons.. 07/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds and a tornado are possible across northern New England this afternoon. A confined corridor of large hail and severe gusts appears possible from north-central Montana to southwest North Dakota this evening. ...Northeast... Midday visible-satellite imagery shows cloud breaks and surface observations show warming temperatures which imply a destabilizing airmass. A lead, convectively enhanced disturbance evident in radar/satellite imagery, is moving east across southern Quebec, while an upstream larger-scale mid-level trough continues eastward across Ontario and into Quebec later today. A cyclone will develop northeast from eastern Ontario into eastern Quebec while a cold front pushes through the Lower Great Lakes and through much of the Northeast through mid evening. The deep moisture through much of the troposphere and weak lapse rate profiles, which were sampled by the 12 UTC Buffalo and Albany, NY raobs, will undergo moderate destabilization by early to mid afternoon. Although forcing for ascent will favor Quebec into northern New England, scattered thunderstorms will likely develop from Maine southward into southern New England. The greatest potential for some organized storms will favor northern New England where stronger effective shear (30-40 kt) and adequate buoyancy will promote a wind-damage threat with the stronger storms. Forecast sounding over northern Maine show enlarged hodographs for a few hours, which may aid in low-level mesocyclone development and perhaps a risk for a tornado. Lower coverage of severe is forecast farther south where weaker shear will tend to limit storm intensity. The severe activity will likely diminish by the early to mid evening. ...Northern High Plains... Model guidance continues to show a focused corridor of supercell thunderstorm potential from north-central MT to southwest ND, mainly this evening. Water-vapor imagery shows a mid-level shortwave trough rotating southeastward across the southern part of the Canadian Rockies moving towards the northern High Plains. Forecast soundings this afternoon show elongated hodographs amidst modest buoyancy, which would support the development of a supercell or two during the evening. Large hail is the primary hazard with this activity but severe gusts may occur on a localized basis. An isolated hail/wind risk may persist along the ND/SD border vicinity overnight. ...Mid-Atlantic to the Southern High Plains... A surface front draped over the south-central Plains east-northeastward into the mid MS/OH Valleys will focus scattered thunderstorm activity this afternoon. The eastern part of this broader region over the Mid-Atlantic into the OH Valley will be displaced from the mid-level trough over influencing storm activity over the Northeast. A remnant MCV and outflow from overnight storms in the MO/KS/OK vicinity will aid in developing storms and perhaps localized threats for sporadic hail/wind mainly this afternoon. Isolated damaging winds may also occur with thunderstorms that develop east of the central Appalachians this afternoon, even though coverage should be somewhat less. ..Smith/Lyons.. 07/17/2025 Read more