Aggregator

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies as another upper trough ejects into the Plains today. Modestly dry and breezy conditions will result across portions of the Great Basin. However, the marginally favorable low-level RH, and fuels that are poorly receptive to wildfire spread, suggest that the chances for significant wildfire ignition and growth are relatively low. The lifting of a buoyant airmass ahead of the western upper trough will support scattered thunderstorm development across portions of the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies. However, fuels do not appear dry enough for robust lightning ignitions to warrant any dry thunderstorm highlights. ..Squitieri.. 09/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

141
ABPZ20 KNHC 140549
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sat Sep 13 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

South of Baja California Peninsula:
An area of low pressure located south of the Baja California
Peninsula, which includes the remnants of Mario, is producing a
broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development, and
a tropical depression could form during the early to middle part of
next week as it tracks slowly westward.
*Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
*Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

Off the Coast of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure could develop well offshore of the coast of
southern or southwestern Mexico early next week. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development as
the low tracks west-northwestward around 10 to 15 mph.
*Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
*Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

South and Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands:
An area of low pressure well southeast of the Hawaiian Islands is
producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for some gradual
development of this system as it moves westward around 10 mph.
*Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
*Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Jelsema

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1206 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorm potential appears generally low on Monday. ...Discussion... A pair of upper shortwave troughs will be located over the northern Rockies and the Upper Midwest on Monday. The upper trough oriented over the eastern Dakotas/MN will lift north into Canada through early evening, while the northern Rockies upper trough meanders slowly eastward, developing an upper cyclone over MT/WY. Another upper cyclone is expected to persist over the Carolinas, while upper riding builds across the Pacific coast states and Midwest. At the surface, seasonal boundary layer moisture will be in place across the southern and central Plains into the MS Valley, resulting in pockets of weak to moderate instability. Any stronger instability is likely to remain displaced from stronger vertical shear, which will be quickly shifting northward from the Upper Midwest into Canada with the departing upper shortwave trough. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will still be possible within a corridor of 60s F dewpoints and moderate instability from the Ozarks vicinity into MN within a low-level warm advection regime. However, severe potential will largely remain low given limited shear and forcing for ascent. The exception could be a strong storm or two in MN/western WI where effective shear magnitudes around 20-25 kt and MLCAPE up to 2000 J/kg will be in place. However, given the upper trough will be departing the region, subsidence may limit storm coverage/longevity across the area. Additional scattered storms are possible across parts of the northern/central High Plains ahead of a weak surface front/trough. Steep midlevel lapse rates will be in place, and strong heating will aid in steepened low-level lapse rates amid a deeply mixed boundary layer. Severe potential should remain limited given weak shear/instability, but inverted-v sub-cloud thermodynamic profiles could foster locally gusty winds with any showers/thunderstorms. ..Leitman.. 09/14/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1206 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorm potential appears generally low on Monday. ...Discussion... A pair of upper shortwave troughs will be located over the northern Rockies and the Upper Midwest on Monday. The upper trough oriented over the eastern Dakotas/MN will lift north into Canada through early evening, while the northern Rockies upper trough meanders slowly eastward, developing an upper cyclone over MT/WY. Another upper cyclone is expected to persist over the Carolinas, while upper riding builds across the Pacific coast states and Midwest. At the surface, seasonal boundary layer moisture will be in place across the southern and central Plains into the MS Valley, resulting in pockets of weak to moderate instability. Any stronger instability is likely to remain displaced from stronger vertical shear, which will be quickly shifting northward from the Upper Midwest into Canada with the departing upper shortwave trough. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will still be possible within a corridor of 60s F dewpoints and moderate instability from the Ozarks vicinity into MN within a low-level warm advection regime. However, severe potential will largely remain low given limited shear and forcing for ascent. The exception could be a strong storm or two in MN/western WI where effective shear magnitudes around 20-25 kt and MLCAPE up to 2000 J/kg will be in place. However, given the upper trough will be departing the region, subsidence may limit storm coverage/longevity across the area. Additional scattered storms are possible across parts of the northern/central High Plains ahead of a weak surface front/trough. Steep midlevel lapse rates will be in place, and strong heating will aid in steepened low-level lapse rates amid a deeply mixed boundary layer. Severe potential should remain limited given weak shear/instability, but inverted-v sub-cloud thermodynamic profiles could foster locally gusty winds with any showers/thunderstorms. ..Leitman.. 09/14/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1206 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorm potential appears generally low on Monday. ...Discussion... A pair of upper shortwave troughs will be located over the northern Rockies and the Upper Midwest on Monday. The upper trough oriented over the eastern Dakotas/MN will lift north into Canada through early evening, while the northern Rockies upper trough meanders slowly eastward, developing an upper cyclone over MT/WY. Another upper cyclone is expected to persist over the Carolinas, while upper riding builds across the Pacific coast states and Midwest. At the surface, seasonal boundary layer moisture will be in place across the southern and central Plains into the MS Valley, resulting in pockets of weak to moderate instability. Any stronger instability is likely to remain displaced from stronger vertical shear, which will be quickly shifting northward from the Upper Midwest into Canada with the departing upper shortwave trough. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will still be possible within a corridor of 60s F dewpoints and moderate instability from the Ozarks vicinity into MN within a low-level warm advection regime. However, severe potential will largely remain low given limited shear and forcing for ascent. The exception could be a strong storm or two in MN/western WI where effective shear magnitudes around 20-25 kt and MLCAPE up to 2000 J/kg will be in place. However, given the upper trough will be departing the region, subsidence may limit storm coverage/longevity across the area. Additional scattered storms are possible across parts of the northern/central High Plains ahead of a weak surface front/trough. Steep midlevel lapse rates will be in place, and strong heating will aid in steepened low-level lapse rates amid a deeply mixed boundary layer. Severe potential should remain limited given weak shear/instability, but inverted-v sub-cloud thermodynamic profiles could foster locally gusty winds with any showers/thunderstorms. ..Leitman.. 09/14/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1206 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorm potential appears generally low on Monday. ...Discussion... A pair of upper shortwave troughs will be located over the northern Rockies and the Upper Midwest on Monday. The upper trough oriented over the eastern Dakotas/MN will lift north into Canada through early evening, while the northern Rockies upper trough meanders slowly eastward, developing an upper cyclone over MT/WY. Another upper cyclone is expected to persist over the Carolinas, while upper riding builds across the Pacific coast states and Midwest. At the surface, seasonal boundary layer moisture will be in place across the southern and central Plains into the MS Valley, resulting in pockets of weak to moderate instability. Any stronger instability is likely to remain displaced from stronger vertical shear, which will be quickly shifting northward from the Upper Midwest into Canada with the departing upper shortwave trough. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will still be possible within a corridor of 60s F dewpoints and moderate instability from the Ozarks vicinity into MN within a low-level warm advection regime. However, severe potential will largely remain low given limited shear and forcing for ascent. The exception could be a strong storm or two in MN/western WI where effective shear magnitudes around 20-25 kt and MLCAPE up to 2000 J/kg will be in place. However, given the upper trough will be departing the region, subsidence may limit storm coverage/longevity across the area. Additional scattered storms are possible across parts of the northern/central High Plains ahead of a weak surface front/trough. Steep midlevel lapse rates will be in place, and strong heating will aid in steepened low-level lapse rates amid a deeply mixed boundary layer. Severe potential should remain limited given weak shear/instability, but inverted-v sub-cloud thermodynamic profiles could foster locally gusty winds with any showers/thunderstorms. ..Leitman.. 09/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across a broad portion of the Great Plains this afternoon to early evening. A more concentrated threat for a couple tornadoes is evident over parts of the Dakotas and for large hail along the Nebraska-Kansas border. ...Dakotas... The nose of a diurnally strengthening low-level jet will advance north across the Dakotas today. Deeper boundary-layer mixing will occur within the convective-free portion of the low-level jet. An arc of seasonably rich boundary-layer moisture, characterized by mid 60s to low 70s surface dew points, will lie to its north from eastern ND to the Lower OH Valley along the diurnally sharpening surface warm front. A mesoscale corridor of enhanced low-level SRH coincident with this rich moisture should pivot northward from north-central SD through parts of central/eastern ND this afternoon. CAM guidance varies in the degree of convective development, which will be modulated by adequate insolation downstream of morning convection from central NE to western SD. A few rotating cells seems plausible, with the primary hazard being tornado. Weak mid-level lapse rates should temper the overall threat though and storm intensity will wane as the boundary layer cools after sunset. ...Central Great Plains... A confined plume of steep mid-level lapse rates will accompany the southeast flank of the consolidating negative-tilt trough ejecting north-northeast from the central High Plains. In the wake of persistent morning convection, boundary-layer heating should become pronounced from the TX Panhandle across western KS. This should support a corridor of ample buoyancy where low to mid-level lapse rates are steep. This corridor should be offset west of the confined belt of stronger mid-level flow. Nevertheless, with scattered to widespread storms, some of these should contain transient supercell to mainly multicell structures. Scattered large hail and isolated severe gusts should be the primary threats in this regime during the late afternoon to early evening. ...Southern High Plains... Scattered thunderstorm development is expected during the afternoon, as rapid destabilization occurs in the wake of morning convection progressing east. Modest mid-level westerlies, south of the negative-tilt shortwave trough advancing north of the central High Plains, should provide adequate deep-layer shear for transient supercell and multicell structures. But weak mid-level lapse rates, amid relatively warm mid-level temperatures, should temper updraft vigor. This should support a likely isolated severe threat. ...Mid-South/Mid-MS Valley... Ample buoyancy along and southwest of the synoptic warm front should aid in a few strong gusts and small hail with scattered late afternoon storms. Rather weak deep-layer shear within the mid-level ridge indicates a predominant pulse mode, supporting a negligible threat for organized severe. ..Grams/Squitieri.. 09/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across a broad portion of the Great Plains this afternoon to early evening. A more concentrated threat for a couple tornadoes is evident over parts of the Dakotas and for large hail along the Nebraska-Kansas border. ...Dakotas... The nose of a diurnally strengthening low-level jet will advance north across the Dakotas today. Deeper boundary-layer mixing will occur within the convective-free portion of the low-level jet. An arc of seasonably rich boundary-layer moisture, characterized by mid 60s to low 70s surface dew points, will lie to its north from eastern ND to the Lower OH Valley along the diurnally sharpening surface warm front. A mesoscale corridor of enhanced low-level SRH coincident with this rich moisture should pivot northward from north-central SD through parts of central/eastern ND this afternoon. CAM guidance varies in the degree of convective development, which will be modulated by adequate insolation downstream of morning convection from central NE to western SD. A few rotating cells seems plausible, with the primary hazard being tornado. Weak mid-level lapse rates should temper the overall threat though and storm intensity will wane as the boundary layer cools after sunset. ...Central Great Plains... A confined plume of steep mid-level lapse rates will accompany the southeast flank of the consolidating negative-tilt trough ejecting north-northeast from the central High Plains. In the wake of persistent morning convection, boundary-layer heating should become pronounced from the TX Panhandle across western KS. This should support a corridor of ample buoyancy where low to mid-level lapse rates are steep. This corridor should be offset west of the confined belt of stronger mid-level flow. Nevertheless, with scattered to widespread storms, some of these should contain transient supercell to mainly multicell structures. Scattered large hail and isolated severe gusts should be the primary threats in this regime during the late afternoon to early evening. ...Southern High Plains... Scattered thunderstorm development is expected during the afternoon, as rapid destabilization occurs in the wake of morning convection progressing east. Modest mid-level westerlies, south of the negative-tilt shortwave trough advancing north of the central High Plains, should provide adequate deep-layer shear for transient supercell and multicell structures. But weak mid-level lapse rates, amid relatively warm mid-level temperatures, should temper updraft vigor. This should support a likely isolated severe threat. ...Mid-South/Mid-MS Valley... Ample buoyancy along and southwest of the synoptic warm front should aid in a few strong gusts and small hail with scattered late afternoon storms. Rather weak deep-layer shear within the mid-level ridge indicates a predominant pulse mode, supporting a negligible threat for organized severe. ..Grams/Squitieri.. 09/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across a broad portion of the Great Plains this afternoon to early evening. A more concentrated threat for a couple tornadoes is evident over parts of the Dakotas and for large hail along the Nebraska-Kansas border. ...Dakotas... The nose of a diurnally strengthening low-level jet will advance north across the Dakotas today. Deeper boundary-layer mixing will occur within the convective-free portion of the low-level jet. An arc of seasonably rich boundary-layer moisture, characterized by mid 60s to low 70s surface dew points, will lie to its north from eastern ND to the Lower OH Valley along the diurnally sharpening surface warm front. A mesoscale corridor of enhanced low-level SRH coincident with this rich moisture should pivot northward from north-central SD through parts of central/eastern ND this afternoon. CAM guidance varies in the degree of convective development, which will be modulated by adequate insolation downstream of morning convection from central NE to western SD. A few rotating cells seems plausible, with the primary hazard being tornado. Weak mid-level lapse rates should temper the overall threat though and storm intensity will wane as the boundary layer cools after sunset. ...Central Great Plains... A confined plume of steep mid-level lapse rates will accompany the southeast flank of the consolidating negative-tilt trough ejecting north-northeast from the central High Plains. In the wake of persistent morning convection, boundary-layer heating should become pronounced from the TX Panhandle across western KS. This should support a corridor of ample buoyancy where low to mid-level lapse rates are steep. This corridor should be offset west of the confined belt of stronger mid-level flow. Nevertheless, with scattered to widespread storms, some of these should contain transient supercell to mainly multicell structures. Scattered large hail and isolated severe gusts should be the primary threats in this regime during the late afternoon to early evening. ...Southern High Plains... Scattered thunderstorm development is expected during the afternoon, as rapid destabilization occurs in the wake of morning convection progressing east. Modest mid-level westerlies, south of the negative-tilt shortwave trough advancing north of the central High Plains, should provide adequate deep-layer shear for transient supercell and multicell structures. But weak mid-level lapse rates, amid relatively warm mid-level temperatures, should temper updraft vigor. This should support a likely isolated severe threat. ...Mid-South/Mid-MS Valley... Ample buoyancy along and southwest of the synoptic warm front should aid in a few strong gusts and small hail with scattered late afternoon storms. Rather weak deep-layer shear within the mid-level ridge indicates a predominant pulse mode, supporting a negligible threat for organized severe. ..Grams/Squitieri.. 09/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across a broad portion of the Great Plains this afternoon to early evening. A more concentrated threat for a couple tornadoes is evident over parts of the Dakotas and for large hail along the Nebraska-Kansas border. ...Dakotas... The nose of a diurnally strengthening low-level jet will advance north across the Dakotas today. Deeper boundary-layer mixing will occur within the convective-free portion of the low-level jet. An arc of seasonably rich boundary-layer moisture, characterized by mid 60s to low 70s surface dew points, will lie to its north from eastern ND to the Lower OH Valley along the diurnally sharpening surface warm front. A mesoscale corridor of enhanced low-level SRH coincident with this rich moisture should pivot northward from north-central SD through parts of central/eastern ND this afternoon. CAM guidance varies in the degree of convective development, which will be modulated by adequate insolation downstream of morning convection from central NE to western SD. A few rotating cells seems plausible, with the primary hazard being tornado. Weak mid-level lapse rates should temper the overall threat though and storm intensity will wane as the boundary layer cools after sunset. ...Central Great Plains... A confined plume of steep mid-level lapse rates will accompany the southeast flank of the consolidating negative-tilt trough ejecting north-northeast from the central High Plains. In the wake of persistent morning convection, boundary-layer heating should become pronounced from the TX Panhandle across western KS. This should support a corridor of ample buoyancy where low to mid-level lapse rates are steep. This corridor should be offset west of the confined belt of stronger mid-level flow. Nevertheless, with scattered to widespread storms, some of these should contain transient supercell to mainly multicell structures. Scattered large hail and isolated severe gusts should be the primary threats in this regime during the late afternoon to early evening. ...Southern High Plains... Scattered thunderstorm development is expected during the afternoon, as rapid destabilization occurs in the wake of morning convection progressing east. Modest mid-level westerlies, south of the negative-tilt shortwave trough advancing north of the central High Plains, should provide adequate deep-layer shear for transient supercell and multicell structures. But weak mid-level lapse rates, amid relatively warm mid-level temperatures, should temper updraft vigor. This should support a likely isolated severe threat. ...Mid-South/Mid-MS Valley... Ample buoyancy along and southwest of the synoptic warm front should aid in a few strong gusts and small hail with scattered late afternoon storms. Rather weak deep-layer shear within the mid-level ridge indicates a predominant pulse mode, supporting a negligible threat for organized severe. ..Grams/Squitieri.. 09/14/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 PM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF EASTERN NM/FAR WEST TX AND WESTERN NE/CENTRAL SD... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe wind and hail will diminish across eastern New Mexico and far west Texas this evening. Isolated strong to marginal severe wind and hail will be possible into the overnight across western Nebraska to central South Dakota. ...NM/TX... An overall weakening trend has been noted with discrete cells focused along the southeast NM/far west TX border and clustering/line segments farther north along the northeast NM/TX Panhandle border. This trend is expected to persist given weak buoyancy/lapse rates to the northeast (per the 00Z AMA sounding) and impinging on greater MLCIN over the Trans-Pecos and Pecos Valley of TX. The 00Z EPZ sounding sampled decent west-southwesterly speed shear and modest buoyancy. This will support some threat for marginally severe hail/wind over the next 1-2 hours. ...NE/SD... Convection has struggled to intensify owing to weak mid-level lapse rates and buoyancy amid a modest deep-layer meridional wind profile, per the 00Z LBF sounding. Recent HRRR/RRFS/MPAS runs suggest some intensification of far northeast CO and western NE convection may occur tonight. This could be realized as a minor MCV advances north-northeast towards a residual corridor of moderate buoyancy in SD, mainly overnight. While the overall setup will probably support just strong storms at most, will maintain a corridor of level 1-MRGL risk for a low-probability, marginal severe threat. ..Grams.. 09/14/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 PM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF EASTERN NM/FAR WEST TX AND WESTERN NE/CENTRAL SD... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe wind and hail will diminish across eastern New Mexico and far west Texas this evening. Isolated strong to marginal severe wind and hail will be possible into the overnight across western Nebraska to central South Dakota. ...NM/TX... An overall weakening trend has been noted with discrete cells focused along the southeast NM/far west TX border and clustering/line segments farther north along the northeast NM/TX Panhandle border. This trend is expected to persist given weak buoyancy/lapse rates to the northeast (per the 00Z AMA sounding) and impinging on greater MLCIN over the Trans-Pecos and Pecos Valley of TX. The 00Z EPZ sounding sampled decent west-southwesterly speed shear and modest buoyancy. This will support some threat for marginally severe hail/wind over the next 1-2 hours. ...NE/SD... Convection has struggled to intensify owing to weak mid-level lapse rates and buoyancy amid a modest deep-layer meridional wind profile, per the 00Z LBF sounding. Recent HRRR/RRFS/MPAS runs suggest some intensification of far northeast CO and western NE convection may occur tonight. This could be realized as a minor MCV advances north-northeast towards a residual corridor of moderate buoyancy in SD, mainly overnight. While the overall setup will probably support just strong storms at most, will maintain a corridor of level 1-MRGL risk for a low-probability, marginal severe threat. ..Grams.. 09/14/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 PM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF EASTERN NM/FAR WEST TX AND WESTERN NE/CENTRAL SD... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe wind and hail will diminish across eastern New Mexico and far west Texas this evening. Isolated strong to marginal severe wind and hail will be possible into the overnight across western Nebraska to central South Dakota. ...NM/TX... An overall weakening trend has been noted with discrete cells focused along the southeast NM/far west TX border and clustering/line segments farther north along the northeast NM/TX Panhandle border. This trend is expected to persist given weak buoyancy/lapse rates to the northeast (per the 00Z AMA sounding) and impinging on greater MLCIN over the Trans-Pecos and Pecos Valley of TX. The 00Z EPZ sounding sampled decent west-southwesterly speed shear and modest buoyancy. This will support some threat for marginally severe hail/wind over the next 1-2 hours. ...NE/SD... Convection has struggled to intensify owing to weak mid-level lapse rates and buoyancy amid a modest deep-layer meridional wind profile, per the 00Z LBF sounding. Recent HRRR/RRFS/MPAS runs suggest some intensification of far northeast CO and western NE convection may occur tonight. This could be realized as a minor MCV advances north-northeast towards a residual corridor of moderate buoyancy in SD, mainly overnight. While the overall setup will probably support just strong storms at most, will maintain a corridor of level 1-MRGL risk for a low-probability, marginal severe threat. ..Grams.. 09/14/2025 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 132330
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sat Sep 13 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

South of Baja California Peninsula:
An area of low pressure located south of the Baja California
Peninsula, which includes the remnants of Mario, is producing a
broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual
development, and a tropical depression could form by the middle of
next week as it tracks slowly westward.
*Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
*Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Off the Coast of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure could develop well offshore of the coast of
southern or southwestern Mexico early next week. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development as
the low tracks westward to west-northwestward around 10 to 15 mph.
*Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
*Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

South and Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands:
An area of low pressure well southeast of the Hawaiian Islands is
producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for some gradual
development of this system as it moves westward or
west-northwestward at around 10 mph.
*Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
*Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Sep 13 22:33:02 UTC 2025.

No watches are valid as of Sat Sep 13 22:33:02 UTC 2025.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0436 PM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z ...Synopsis... By early next week, two mid-level shortwave troughs over the northern Great Plains and northern Rockies will phase resulting in a positively tilted trough there. An increasing mid level height gradient is expected near the base of this feature over the central Rockies, while surface pressure falls and an increasing pressure gradient over the northern Plains promote breezy southerlies from eastern NE to MN. Farther east by mid week, a narrow mid to upper-level ridge over the Great Lakes will begin to break down as the aforementioned trough deepens and digs southward over the Plains. Shortwave ridging, however, will likely continue through D6/Thursday over already receptive fuels from the MS Valley northeastward into the OH Valley. A mid to upper-level ridge will also return to CA and the Southwest by this time. Overall, considering modest wind speeds across most of the CONUS throughout the extended forecast (the exception being D3/Monday), the combined/total fire weather environment is expected to remain low. ...Snake River Plain and southern WY... Similar to Sunday, localized breezy westerly winds are anticipated across this area D3/Monday. Relatively higher minimum RH and unreceptive fuels should limit the fire spread potential, and low critical probabilities are not warranted. ..Barnes.. 09/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0436 PM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z ...Synopsis... By early next week, two mid-level shortwave troughs over the northern Great Plains and northern Rockies will phase resulting in a positively tilted trough there. An increasing mid level height gradient is expected near the base of this feature over the central Rockies, while surface pressure falls and an increasing pressure gradient over the northern Plains promote breezy southerlies from eastern NE to MN. Farther east by mid week, a narrow mid to upper-level ridge over the Great Lakes will begin to break down as the aforementioned trough deepens and digs southward over the Plains. Shortwave ridging, however, will likely continue through D6/Thursday over already receptive fuels from the MS Valley northeastward into the OH Valley. A mid to upper-level ridge will also return to CA and the Southwest by this time. Overall, considering modest wind speeds across most of the CONUS throughout the extended forecast (the exception being D3/Monday), the combined/total fire weather environment is expected to remain low. ...Snake River Plain and southern WY... Similar to Sunday, localized breezy westerly winds are anticipated across this area D3/Monday. Relatively higher minimum RH and unreceptive fuels should limit the fire spread potential, and low critical probabilities are not warranted. ..Barnes.. 09/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0436 PM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z ...Synopsis... By early next week, two mid-level shortwave troughs over the northern Great Plains and northern Rockies will phase resulting in a positively tilted trough there. An increasing mid level height gradient is expected near the base of this feature over the central Rockies, while surface pressure falls and an increasing pressure gradient over the northern Plains promote breezy southerlies from eastern NE to MN. Farther east by mid week, a narrow mid to upper-level ridge over the Great Lakes will begin to break down as the aforementioned trough deepens and digs southward over the Plains. Shortwave ridging, however, will likely continue through D6/Thursday over already receptive fuels from the MS Valley northeastward into the OH Valley. A mid to upper-level ridge will also return to CA and the Southwest by this time. Overall, considering modest wind speeds across most of the CONUS throughout the extended forecast (the exception being D3/Monday), the combined/total fire weather environment is expected to remain low. ...Snake River Plain and southern WY... Similar to Sunday, localized breezy westerly winds are anticipated across this area D3/Monday. Relatively higher minimum RH and unreceptive fuels should limit the fire spread potential, and low critical probabilities are not warranted. ..Barnes.. 09/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more