Aggregator

Issued at 800 PM PDT Tue Aug 06 2024 189 WTPZ31 KNHC 070247 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Fabio Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062024 800 PM PDT Tue Aug 06 2024 ...FABIO WEAKENS AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE CIRCULATION OF EMILIA TO ITS SOUTH... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.0N 115.4W ABOUT 725 MI...1170 KM W OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fabio was located near latitude 20.0 North, longitude 115.4 West. Fabio is moving toward the northwest near 21 mph (33 km/h). A motion toward the west-northwest is expected tonight, followed by a turn toward the west later on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next day or so until Fabio merges with Emilia. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Hagen/Beven

...FABIO WEAKENS AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE CIRCULATION OF EMILIA TO ITS SOUTH... As of 8:00 PM PDT Tue Aug 6 the center of Fabio was located near 20.0, -115.4 with movement NW at 21 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Issued at 0300 UTC WED AUG 07 2024 595 WTPZ21 KNHC 070247 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM FABIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062024 0300 UTC WED AUG 07 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 115.4W AT 07/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 18 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 90NE 70SE 0SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 180SE 45SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 115.4W AT 07/0300Z AT 07/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 114.6W FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 20.6N 117.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 20.9N 120.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.0N 115.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0900Z $$ FORECASTER HAGEN/BEVEN

MD 1852 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 608... FOR SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA...NORTHEASTERN WYOMING...WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1852 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0833 PM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Areas affected...southeastern Montana...northeastern Wyoming...western South Dakota Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 608... Valid 070133Z - 070230Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 608 continues. SUMMARY...Severe threat continues within WW608. DISCUSSION...Two clusters of thunderstorms are ongoing across portions of southeastern Montana and northeastern Wyoming. Storms have produced severe gusts up to 68 mph and hail up to 1 inch in the last couple of hours. The greatest near term threat appears to be across northeastern Wyoming into western South Dakota. Lightning activity with this cluster of storms has been more frequent. With eastward extent, these storms will encounter a capped airmass across western South Dakota, with MLCAPE 500-1000 J/kg. Enhanced mid-level flow across this region is supporting 40-45 kts of deep layer shear, which may aid in maintaining organized storms in the near term. The 00z RAOB from Rapid City shows MLCIN to be generally weak amid steep low to mid-level lapse rates. Potential for strong to severe winds and large hail will continue across Wyoming into western South Dakota in the near term. ..Thornton.. 08/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...BYZ...RIW... LAT...LON 45740363 46110409 46410539 46360654 46050765 45310788 44740737 44070584 43580540 43560398 43670371 43900323 44150279 45340307 45740363 Read more

MD 1851 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1851 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0725 PM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Areas affected...northwestern North Dakota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 070025Z - 070230Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Marginal risk of hail and damaging wind. DISCUSSION...A broken line of thunderstorms is advancing southward out of Canada. This line is expected to continue into northwestern North Dakota, with potential for further development ahead of this line. Storms will continue southward into an environment characterized by MLCAPE around 1000-1500 J/kg and deep layer shear 50-55 kts. This will support a few organized cells capable of large hail (isolated up to 2 in) and damaging wind. MLCIN remains in place across much of central North Dakota, which may limit the severe potential with south and southeast extent. Due to the localized nature of this threat, a watch is unlikely to be needed. ..Thornton/Smith.. 08/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BIS... LAT...LON 48730347 48970320 49000231 48960128 48980002 48500009 47910003 47720176 47650307 47660348 47920389 48380381 48530368 48730347 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 PM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Valid 070100Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF MONTANA INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...OVER PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL CAROLINAS...AND OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds, hail, and isolated tornadoes will continue across much of Montana into parts of the Dakotas, the coastal Carolinas, and across parts of Arizona. ...Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic... Overall severe potential has waned as outflow reinforced cold front has sagged southward toward southern OH and the PA/MD border eastward through southern NJ. Sporadic strong gusts may occur for another hour or two into northern MD/DE and southern NJ before increasing boundary layer stabilization limits further strong/severe thunderstorm potential by 03z. ...MT into northern/central High Plains... Probabilities remain largely unchanged across the region. A mix of discrete cells and bowing segments will continue to pose a risk for large hail and severe gusts into the nighttime hours across MT into the western Dakotas as the upper shortwave trough over ID continues to eject eastward. The Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) has been expanded across part of north-central ND to account for elevated cell moving southward and posing a risk of large hail. The 00z RAOB from BIS showed steep midlevel lapse rates with an elongated/straight hodograph favorable for large hail. Instability wanes and capping increases with southeast extent so the severe risk should remain limited in time/space. Reference MCD 1851 for more details. ...AZ... Strong to severe thunderstorms will continue to pose a risk of strong gusts the next few hours as a weak shortwave impulse migrates across northern Mexico near the AZ border. The KIWA VWP shows around 35 kt effective shear magnitudes and around 20-25 kt midlevel easterly flow. If additional convection can become clustered and better organized, an increased risk of severe gusts could develop across the lower elevations of southern AZ. ...Coastal Carolinas... Tropical Storm Debby will not move much overnight. Some enhancement to low-level southeasterly flow is noted on the 00z MHX RAOB along with 0-1 SRH around 150 m2/s2 and 3km MLCAPE around 50-75 J/kg. This will continue to support at least a low risk for a couple tornadoes overnight. ..Leitman.. 08/07/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 PM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Valid 070100Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF MONTANA INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...OVER PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL CAROLINAS...AND OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds, hail, and isolated tornadoes will continue across much of Montana into parts of the Dakotas, the coastal Carolinas, and across parts of Arizona. ...Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic... Overall severe potential has waned as outflow reinforced cold front has sagged southward toward southern OH and the PA/MD border eastward through southern NJ. Sporadic strong gusts may occur for another hour or two into northern MD/DE and southern NJ before increasing boundary layer stabilization limits further strong/severe thunderstorm potential by 03z. ...MT into northern/central High Plains... Probabilities remain largely unchanged across the region. A mix of discrete cells and bowing segments will continue to pose a risk for large hail and severe gusts into the nighttime hours across MT into the western Dakotas as the upper shortwave trough over ID continues to eject eastward. The Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) has been expanded across part of north-central ND to account for elevated cell moving southward and posing a risk of large hail. The 00z RAOB from BIS showed steep midlevel lapse rates with an elongated/straight hodograph favorable for large hail. Instability wanes and capping increases with southeast extent so the severe risk should remain limited in time/space. Reference MCD 1851 for more details. ...AZ... Strong to severe thunderstorms will continue to pose a risk of strong gusts the next few hours as a weak shortwave impulse migrates across northern Mexico near the AZ border. The KIWA VWP shows around 35 kt effective shear magnitudes and around 20-25 kt midlevel easterly flow. If additional convection can become clustered and better organized, an increased risk of severe gusts could develop across the lower elevations of southern AZ. ...Coastal Carolinas... Tropical Storm Debby will not move much overnight. Some enhancement to low-level southeasterly flow is noted on the 00z MHX RAOB along with 0-1 SRH around 150 m2/s2 and 3km MLCAPE around 50-75 J/kg. This will continue to support at least a low risk for a couple tornadoes overnight. ..Leitman.. 08/07/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 PM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Valid 070100Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF MONTANA INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...OVER PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL CAROLINAS...AND OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds, hail, and isolated tornadoes will continue across much of Montana into parts of the Dakotas, the coastal Carolinas, and across parts of Arizona. ...Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic... Overall severe potential has waned as outflow reinforced cold front has sagged southward toward southern OH and the PA/MD border eastward through southern NJ. Sporadic strong gusts may occur for another hour or two into northern MD/DE and southern NJ before increasing boundary layer stabilization limits further strong/severe thunderstorm potential by 03z. ...MT into northern/central High Plains... Probabilities remain largely unchanged across the region. A mix of discrete cells and bowing segments will continue to pose a risk for large hail and severe gusts into the nighttime hours across MT into the western Dakotas as the upper shortwave trough over ID continues to eject eastward. The Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) has been expanded across part of north-central ND to account for elevated cell moving southward and posing a risk of large hail. The 00z RAOB from BIS showed steep midlevel lapse rates with an elongated/straight hodograph favorable for large hail. Instability wanes and capping increases with southeast extent so the severe risk should remain limited in time/space. Reference MCD 1851 for more details. ...AZ... Strong to severe thunderstorms will continue to pose a risk of strong gusts the next few hours as a weak shortwave impulse migrates across northern Mexico near the AZ border. The KIWA VWP shows around 35 kt effective shear magnitudes and around 20-25 kt midlevel easterly flow. If additional convection can become clustered and better organized, an increased risk of severe gusts could develop across the lower elevations of southern AZ. ...Coastal Carolinas... Tropical Storm Debby will not move much overnight. Some enhancement to low-level southeasterly flow is noted on the 00z MHX RAOB along with 0-1 SRH around 150 m2/s2 and 3km MLCAPE around 50-75 J/kg. This will continue to support at least a low risk for a couple tornadoes overnight. ..Leitman.. 08/07/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 PM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Valid 070100Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF MONTANA INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...OVER PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL CAROLINAS...AND OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds, hail, and isolated tornadoes will continue across much of Montana into parts of the Dakotas, the coastal Carolinas, and across parts of Arizona. ...Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic... Overall severe potential has waned as outflow reinforced cold front has sagged southward toward southern OH and the PA/MD border eastward through southern NJ. Sporadic strong gusts may occur for another hour or two into northern MD/DE and southern NJ before increasing boundary layer stabilization limits further strong/severe thunderstorm potential by 03z. ...MT into northern/central High Plains... Probabilities remain largely unchanged across the region. A mix of discrete cells and bowing segments will continue to pose a risk for large hail and severe gusts into the nighttime hours across MT into the western Dakotas as the upper shortwave trough over ID continues to eject eastward. The Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) has been expanded across part of north-central ND to account for elevated cell moving southward and posing a risk of large hail. The 00z RAOB from BIS showed steep midlevel lapse rates with an elongated/straight hodograph favorable for large hail. Instability wanes and capping increases with southeast extent so the severe risk should remain limited in time/space. Reference MCD 1851 for more details. ...AZ... Strong to severe thunderstorms will continue to pose a risk of strong gusts the next few hours as a weak shortwave impulse migrates across northern Mexico near the AZ border. The KIWA VWP shows around 35 kt effective shear magnitudes and around 20-25 kt midlevel easterly flow. If additional convection can become clustered and better organized, an increased risk of severe gusts could develop across the lower elevations of southern AZ. ...Coastal Carolinas... Tropical Storm Debby will not move much overnight. Some enhancement to low-level southeasterly flow is noted on the 00z MHX RAOB along with 0-1 SRH around 150 m2/s2 and 3km MLCAPE around 50-75 J/kg. This will continue to support at least a low risk for a couple tornadoes overnight. ..Leitman.. 08/07/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 PM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Valid 070100Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF MONTANA INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...OVER PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL CAROLINAS...AND OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds, hail, and isolated tornadoes will continue across much of Montana into parts of the Dakotas, the coastal Carolinas, and across parts of Arizona. ...Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic... Overall severe potential has waned as outflow reinforced cold front has sagged southward toward southern OH and the PA/MD border eastward through southern NJ. Sporadic strong gusts may occur for another hour or two into northern MD/DE and southern NJ before increasing boundary layer stabilization limits further strong/severe thunderstorm potential by 03z. ...MT into northern/central High Plains... Probabilities remain largely unchanged across the region. A mix of discrete cells and bowing segments will continue to pose a risk for large hail and severe gusts into the nighttime hours across MT into the western Dakotas as the upper shortwave trough over ID continues to eject eastward. The Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) has been expanded across part of north-central ND to account for elevated cell moving southward and posing a risk of large hail. The 00z RAOB from BIS showed steep midlevel lapse rates with an elongated/straight hodograph favorable for large hail. Instability wanes and capping increases with southeast extent so the severe risk should remain limited in time/space. Reference MCD 1851 for more details. ...AZ... Strong to severe thunderstorms will continue to pose a risk of strong gusts the next few hours as a weak shortwave impulse migrates across northern Mexico near the AZ border. The KIWA VWP shows around 35 kt effective shear magnitudes and around 20-25 kt midlevel easterly flow. If additional convection can become clustered and better organized, an increased risk of severe gusts could develop across the lower elevations of southern AZ. ...Coastal Carolinas... Tropical Storm Debby will not move much overnight. Some enhancement to low-level southeasterly flow is noted on the 00z MHX RAOB along with 0-1 SRH around 150 m2/s2 and 3km MLCAPE around 50-75 J/kg. This will continue to support at least a low risk for a couple tornadoes overnight. ..Leitman.. 08/07/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 PM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Valid 070100Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF MONTANA INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...OVER PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL CAROLINAS...AND OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds, hail, and isolated tornadoes will continue across much of Montana into parts of the Dakotas, the coastal Carolinas, and across parts of Arizona. ...Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic... Overall severe potential has waned as outflow reinforced cold front has sagged southward toward southern OH and the PA/MD border eastward through southern NJ. Sporadic strong gusts may occur for another hour or two into northern MD/DE and southern NJ before increasing boundary layer stabilization limits further strong/severe thunderstorm potential by 03z. ...MT into northern/central High Plains... Probabilities remain largely unchanged across the region. A mix of discrete cells and bowing segments will continue to pose a risk for large hail and severe gusts into the nighttime hours across MT into the western Dakotas as the upper shortwave trough over ID continues to eject eastward. The Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) has been expanded across part of north-central ND to account for elevated cell moving southward and posing a risk of large hail. The 00z RAOB from BIS showed steep midlevel lapse rates with an elongated/straight hodograph favorable for large hail. Instability wanes and capping increases with southeast extent so the severe risk should remain limited in time/space. Reference MCD 1851 for more details. ...AZ... Strong to severe thunderstorms will continue to pose a risk of strong gusts the next few hours as a weak shortwave impulse migrates across northern Mexico near the AZ border. The KIWA VWP shows around 35 kt effective shear magnitudes and around 20-25 kt midlevel easterly flow. If additional convection can become clustered and better organized, an increased risk of severe gusts could develop across the lower elevations of southern AZ. ...Coastal Carolinas... Tropical Storm Debby will not move much overnight. Some enhancement to low-level southeasterly flow is noted on the 00z MHX RAOB along with 0-1 SRH around 150 m2/s2 and 3km MLCAPE around 50-75 J/kg. This will continue to support at least a low risk for a couple tornadoes overnight. ..Leitman.. 08/07/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 PM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Valid 070100Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF MONTANA INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...OVER PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL CAROLINAS...AND OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds, hail, and isolated tornadoes will continue across much of Montana into parts of the Dakotas, the coastal Carolinas, and across parts of Arizona. ...Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic... Overall severe potential has waned as outflow reinforced cold front has sagged southward toward southern OH and the PA/MD border eastward through southern NJ. Sporadic strong gusts may occur for another hour or two into northern MD/DE and southern NJ before increasing boundary layer stabilization limits further strong/severe thunderstorm potential by 03z. ...MT into northern/central High Plains... Probabilities remain largely unchanged across the region. A mix of discrete cells and bowing segments will continue to pose a risk for large hail and severe gusts into the nighttime hours across MT into the western Dakotas as the upper shortwave trough over ID continues to eject eastward. The Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) has been expanded across part of north-central ND to account for elevated cell moving southward and posing a risk of large hail. The 00z RAOB from BIS showed steep midlevel lapse rates with an elongated/straight hodograph favorable for large hail. Instability wanes and capping increases with southeast extent so the severe risk should remain limited in time/space. Reference MCD 1851 for more details. ...AZ... Strong to severe thunderstorms will continue to pose a risk of strong gusts the next few hours as a weak shortwave impulse migrates across northern Mexico near the AZ border. The KIWA VWP shows around 35 kt effective shear magnitudes and around 20-25 kt midlevel easterly flow. If additional convection can become clustered and better organized, an increased risk of severe gusts could develop across the lower elevations of southern AZ. ...Coastal Carolinas... Tropical Storm Debby will not move much overnight. Some enhancement to low-level southeasterly flow is noted on the 00z MHX RAOB along with 0-1 SRH around 150 m2/s2 and 3km MLCAPE around 50-75 J/kg. This will continue to support at least a low risk for a couple tornadoes overnight. ..Leitman.. 08/07/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 PM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Valid 070100Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF MONTANA INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...OVER PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL CAROLINAS...AND OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds, hail, and isolated tornadoes will continue across much of Montana into parts of the Dakotas, the coastal Carolinas, and across parts of Arizona. ...Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic... Overall severe potential has waned as outflow reinforced cold front has sagged southward toward southern OH and the PA/MD border eastward through southern NJ. Sporadic strong gusts may occur for another hour or two into northern MD/DE and southern NJ before increasing boundary layer stabilization limits further strong/severe thunderstorm potential by 03z. ...MT into northern/central High Plains... Probabilities remain largely unchanged across the region. A mix of discrete cells and bowing segments will continue to pose a risk for large hail and severe gusts into the nighttime hours across MT into the western Dakotas as the upper shortwave trough over ID continues to eject eastward. The Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) has been expanded across part of north-central ND to account for elevated cell moving southward and posing a risk of large hail. The 00z RAOB from BIS showed steep midlevel lapse rates with an elongated/straight hodograph favorable for large hail. Instability wanes and capping increases with southeast extent so the severe risk should remain limited in time/space. Reference MCD 1851 for more details. ...AZ... Strong to severe thunderstorms will continue to pose a risk of strong gusts the next few hours as a weak shortwave impulse migrates across northern Mexico near the AZ border. The KIWA VWP shows around 35 kt effective shear magnitudes and around 20-25 kt midlevel easterly flow. If additional convection can become clustered and better organized, an increased risk of severe gusts could develop across the lower elevations of southern AZ. ...Coastal Carolinas... Tropical Storm Debby will not move much overnight. Some enhancement to low-level southeasterly flow is noted on the 00z MHX RAOB along with 0-1 SRH around 150 m2/s2 and 3km MLCAPE around 50-75 J/kg. This will continue to support at least a low risk for a couple tornadoes overnight. ..Leitman.. 08/07/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 PM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Valid 070100Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF MONTANA INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...OVER PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL CAROLINAS...AND OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds, hail, and isolated tornadoes will continue across much of Montana into parts of the Dakotas, the coastal Carolinas, and across parts of Arizona. ...Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic... Overall severe potential has waned as outflow reinforced cold front has sagged southward toward southern OH and the PA/MD border eastward through southern NJ. Sporadic strong gusts may occur for another hour or two into northern MD/DE and southern NJ before increasing boundary layer stabilization limits further strong/severe thunderstorm potential by 03z. ...MT into northern/central High Plains... Probabilities remain largely unchanged across the region. A mix of discrete cells and bowing segments will continue to pose a risk for large hail and severe gusts into the nighttime hours across MT into the western Dakotas as the upper shortwave trough over ID continues to eject eastward. The Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) has been expanded across part of north-central ND to account for elevated cell moving southward and posing a risk of large hail. The 00z RAOB from BIS showed steep midlevel lapse rates with an elongated/straight hodograph favorable for large hail. Instability wanes and capping increases with southeast extent so the severe risk should remain limited in time/space. Reference MCD 1851 for more details. ...AZ... Strong to severe thunderstorms will continue to pose a risk of strong gusts the next few hours as a weak shortwave impulse migrates across northern Mexico near the AZ border. The KIWA VWP shows around 35 kt effective shear magnitudes and around 20-25 kt midlevel easterly flow. If additional convection can become clustered and better organized, an increased risk of severe gusts could develop across the lower elevations of southern AZ. ...Coastal Carolinas... Tropical Storm Debby will not move much overnight. Some enhancement to low-level southeasterly flow is noted on the 00z MHX RAOB along with 0-1 SRH around 150 m2/s2 and 3km MLCAPE around 50-75 J/kg. This will continue to support at least a low risk for a couple tornadoes overnight. ..Leitman.. 08/07/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 PM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Valid 070100Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF MONTANA INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...OVER PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL CAROLINAS...AND OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds, hail, and isolated tornadoes will continue across much of Montana into parts of the Dakotas, the coastal Carolinas, and across parts of Arizona. ...Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic... Overall severe potential has waned as outflow reinforced cold front has sagged southward toward southern OH and the PA/MD border eastward through southern NJ. Sporadic strong gusts may occur for another hour or two into northern MD/DE and southern NJ before increasing boundary layer stabilization limits further strong/severe thunderstorm potential by 03z. ...MT into northern/central High Plains... Probabilities remain largely unchanged across the region. A mix of discrete cells and bowing segments will continue to pose a risk for large hail and severe gusts into the nighttime hours across MT into the western Dakotas as the upper shortwave trough over ID continues to eject eastward. The Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) has been expanded across part of north-central ND to account for elevated cell moving southward and posing a risk of large hail. The 00z RAOB from BIS showed steep midlevel lapse rates with an elongated/straight hodograph favorable for large hail. Instability wanes and capping increases with southeast extent so the severe risk should remain limited in time/space. Reference MCD 1851 for more details. ...AZ... Strong to severe thunderstorms will continue to pose a risk of strong gusts the next few hours as a weak shortwave impulse migrates across northern Mexico near the AZ border. The KIWA VWP shows around 35 kt effective shear magnitudes and around 20-25 kt midlevel easterly flow. If additional convection can become clustered and better organized, an increased risk of severe gusts could develop across the lower elevations of southern AZ. ...Coastal Carolinas... Tropical Storm Debby will not move much overnight. Some enhancement to low-level southeasterly flow is noted on the 00z MHX RAOB along with 0-1 SRH around 150 m2/s2 and 3km MLCAPE around 50-75 J/kg. This will continue to support at least a low risk for a couple tornadoes overnight. ..Leitman.. 08/07/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 PM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Valid 070100Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF MONTANA INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...OVER PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL CAROLINAS...AND OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds, hail, and isolated tornadoes will continue across much of Montana into parts of the Dakotas, the coastal Carolinas, and across parts of Arizona. ...Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic... Overall severe potential has waned as outflow reinforced cold front has sagged southward toward southern OH and the PA/MD border eastward through southern NJ. Sporadic strong gusts may occur for another hour or two into northern MD/DE and southern NJ before increasing boundary layer stabilization limits further strong/severe thunderstorm potential by 03z. ...MT into northern/central High Plains... Probabilities remain largely unchanged across the region. A mix of discrete cells and bowing segments will continue to pose a risk for large hail and severe gusts into the nighttime hours across MT into the western Dakotas as the upper shortwave trough over ID continues to eject eastward. The Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) has been expanded across part of north-central ND to account for elevated cell moving southward and posing a risk of large hail. The 00z RAOB from BIS showed steep midlevel lapse rates with an elongated/straight hodograph favorable for large hail. Instability wanes and capping increases with southeast extent so the severe risk should remain limited in time/space. Reference MCD 1851 for more details. ...AZ... Strong to severe thunderstorms will continue to pose a risk of strong gusts the next few hours as a weak shortwave impulse migrates across northern Mexico near the AZ border. The KIWA VWP shows around 35 kt effective shear magnitudes and around 20-25 kt midlevel easterly flow. If additional convection can become clustered and better organized, an increased risk of severe gusts could develop across the lower elevations of southern AZ. ...Coastal Carolinas... Tropical Storm Debby will not move much overnight. Some enhancement to low-level southeasterly flow is noted on the 00z MHX RAOB along with 0-1 SRH around 150 m2/s2 and 3km MLCAPE around 50-75 J/kg. This will continue to support at least a low risk for a couple tornadoes overnight. ..Leitman.. 08/07/2024 Read more

WW 0606 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 606 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..08/07/24 ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...BGM... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 606 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NJC003-005-007-013-015-017-019-021-023-025-027-029-031-035-037- 039-041-070140- NJ . NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BERGEN BURLINGTON CAMDEN ESSEX GLOUCESTER HUDSON HUNTERDON MERCER MIDDLESEX MONMOUTH MORRIS OCEAN PASSAIC SOMERSET SUSSEX UNION WARREN NYC071-087-070140- NY . NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ORANGE ROCKLAND PAC011-017-025-029-045-069-077-079-089-091-095-101-103-127-131- 070140- PA Read more

WW 0606 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 606 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..08/07/24 ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...BGM... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 606 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NJC003-005-007-013-015-017-019-021-023-025-027-029-031-035-037- 039-041-070140- NJ . NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BERGEN BURLINGTON CAMDEN ESSEX GLOUCESTER HUDSON HUNTERDON MERCER MIDDLESEX MONMOUTH MORRIS OCEAN PASSAIC SOMERSET SUSSEX UNION WARREN NYC071-087-070140- NY . NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ORANGE ROCKLAND PAC011-017-025-029-045-069-077-079-089-091-095-101-103-127-131- 070140- PA Read more

WW 0606 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 606 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..08/07/24 ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...BGM... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 606 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NJC003-005-007-013-015-017-019-021-023-025-027-029-031-035-037- 039-041-070140- NJ . NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BERGEN BURLINGTON CAMDEN ESSEX GLOUCESTER HUDSON HUNTERDON MERCER MIDDLESEX MONMOUTH MORRIS OCEAN PASSAIC SOMERSET SUSSEX UNION WARREN NYC071-087-070140- NY . NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ORANGE ROCKLAND PAC011-017-025-029-045-069-077-079-089-091-095-101-103-127-131- 070140- PA Read more

WW 0606 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 606 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..08/07/24 ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...BGM... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 606 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NJC003-005-007-013-015-017-019-021-023-025-027-029-031-035-037- 039-041-070140- NJ . NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BERGEN BURLINGTON CAMDEN ESSEX GLOUCESTER HUDSON HUNTERDON MERCER MIDDLESEX MONMOUTH MORRIS OCEAN PASSAIC SOMERSET SUSSEX UNION WARREN NYC071-087-070140- NY . NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ORANGE ROCKLAND PAC011-017-025-029-045-069-077-079-089-091-095-101-103-127-131- 070140- PA Read more