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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 PM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS VICINITY...AND PARTS OF THE COASTAL CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong storms will be possible from eastern Wyoming and Colorado into parts of the central Plains late this afternoon and evening, with more isolated activity into the northern Plains. A few strong thunderstorms in association with Tropical Storm Debby may impact parts of the coastal Carolinas through tonight. ...Synopsis... An upper cyclone centered over the Canadian Prairies and its attendant trough will develop south/southeast over the northern Plains and Upper Midwest today. A belt of enhanced midlevel westerly flow will overspread the region as far south as NE/KS. At the surface, an elongated low will extend from western Ontario into the eastern Dakotas by midday, and over the upper Great Lakes/MS Valley by Thursday morning. A trailing cold front will develop east/southeast across the northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest through the period. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Debby will persist near coastal South Carolina. ...Southeast WY/Northeast CO into NE/KS and Southeast SD... Southerly low-level flow will allow 60s F dewpoints to stream northward ahead of the cold front. Heating and steepening lapse rates will allow for a corridor of modest instability near the front by mid/late afternoon from northern/central NE into southeast SD. Isolated cells are expected to develop near the front, though may remain somewhat elevated. Nevertheless, favorable vertical shear and elongated/straight hodographs amid modestly steep midlevel lapse rates suggests isolated large hail will be possible. Strong gusts also may accompany these cells. Additional convection is expected to develop in the post-frontal upslope regime across southeast WY into northeast CO and shift east across northwest/north-central KS and NE. This activity also may pose an isolated hail risk in addition to localized strong gusts if forward propagating clusters can become established. ...Coastal Carolinas... Low-level vertical shear will remain enhanced and favorable for low-level rotation. Low-level instability will mostly be attributed to surface dewpoints in the mid 70s F, but will likely remain on the weak side given limited heating and poor lapse rates. Nevertheless, a low-end tornado risk may persist with any stronger cells moving onshore. ..Leitman/Thornton.. 08/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 PM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS VICINITY...AND PARTS OF THE COASTAL CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong storms will be possible from eastern Wyoming and Colorado into parts of the central Plains late this afternoon and evening, with more isolated activity into the northern Plains. A few strong thunderstorms in association with Tropical Storm Debby may impact parts of the coastal Carolinas through tonight. ...Synopsis... An upper cyclone centered over the Canadian Prairies and its attendant trough will develop south/southeast over the northern Plains and Upper Midwest today. A belt of enhanced midlevel westerly flow will overspread the region as far south as NE/KS. At the surface, an elongated low will extend from western Ontario into the eastern Dakotas by midday, and over the upper Great Lakes/MS Valley by Thursday morning. A trailing cold front will develop east/southeast across the northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest through the period. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Debby will persist near coastal South Carolina. ...Southeast WY/Northeast CO into NE/KS and Southeast SD... Southerly low-level flow will allow 60s F dewpoints to stream northward ahead of the cold front. Heating and steepening lapse rates will allow for a corridor of modest instability near the front by mid/late afternoon from northern/central NE into southeast SD. Isolated cells are expected to develop near the front, though may remain somewhat elevated. Nevertheless, favorable vertical shear and elongated/straight hodographs amid modestly steep midlevel lapse rates suggests isolated large hail will be possible. Strong gusts also may accompany these cells. Additional convection is expected to develop in the post-frontal upslope regime across southeast WY into northeast CO and shift east across northwest/north-central KS and NE. This activity also may pose an isolated hail risk in addition to localized strong gusts if forward propagating clusters can become established. ...Coastal Carolinas... Low-level vertical shear will remain enhanced and favorable for low-level rotation. Low-level instability will mostly be attributed to surface dewpoints in the mid 70s F, but will likely remain on the weak side given limited heating and poor lapse rates. Nevertheless, a low-end tornado risk may persist with any stronger cells moving onshore. ..Leitman/Thornton.. 08/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 PM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS VICINITY...AND PARTS OF THE COASTAL CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong storms will be possible from eastern Wyoming and Colorado into parts of the central Plains late this afternoon and evening, with more isolated activity into the northern Plains. A few strong thunderstorms in association with Tropical Storm Debby may impact parts of the coastal Carolinas through tonight. ...Synopsis... An upper cyclone centered over the Canadian Prairies and its attendant trough will develop south/southeast over the northern Plains and Upper Midwest today. A belt of enhanced midlevel westerly flow will overspread the region as far south as NE/KS. At the surface, an elongated low will extend from western Ontario into the eastern Dakotas by midday, and over the upper Great Lakes/MS Valley by Thursday morning. A trailing cold front will develop east/southeast across the northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest through the period. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Debby will persist near coastal South Carolina. ...Southeast WY/Northeast CO into NE/KS and Southeast SD... Southerly low-level flow will allow 60s F dewpoints to stream northward ahead of the cold front. Heating and steepening lapse rates will allow for a corridor of modest instability near the front by mid/late afternoon from northern/central NE into southeast SD. Isolated cells are expected to develop near the front, though may remain somewhat elevated. Nevertheless, favorable vertical shear and elongated/straight hodographs amid modestly steep midlevel lapse rates suggests isolated large hail will be possible. Strong gusts also may accompany these cells. Additional convection is expected to develop in the post-frontal upslope regime across southeast WY into northeast CO and shift east across northwest/north-central KS and NE. This activity also may pose an isolated hail risk in addition to localized strong gusts if forward propagating clusters can become established. ...Coastal Carolinas... Low-level vertical shear will remain enhanced and favorable for low-level rotation. Low-level instability will mostly be attributed to surface dewpoints in the mid 70s F, but will likely remain on the weak side given limited heating and poor lapse rates. Nevertheless, a low-end tornado risk may persist with any stronger cells moving onshore. ..Leitman/Thornton.. 08/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 PM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS VICINITY...AND PARTS OF THE COASTAL CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong storms will be possible from eastern Wyoming and Colorado into parts of the central Plains late this afternoon and evening, with more isolated activity into the northern Plains. A few strong thunderstorms in association with Tropical Storm Debby may impact parts of the coastal Carolinas through tonight. ...Synopsis... An upper cyclone centered over the Canadian Prairies and its attendant trough will develop south/southeast over the northern Plains and Upper Midwest today. A belt of enhanced midlevel westerly flow will overspread the region as far south as NE/KS. At the surface, an elongated low will extend from western Ontario into the eastern Dakotas by midday, and over the upper Great Lakes/MS Valley by Thursday morning. A trailing cold front will develop east/southeast across the northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest through the period. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Debby will persist near coastal South Carolina. ...Southeast WY/Northeast CO into NE/KS and Southeast SD... Southerly low-level flow will allow 60s F dewpoints to stream northward ahead of the cold front. Heating and steepening lapse rates will allow for a corridor of modest instability near the front by mid/late afternoon from northern/central NE into southeast SD. Isolated cells are expected to develop near the front, though may remain somewhat elevated. Nevertheless, favorable vertical shear and elongated/straight hodographs amid modestly steep midlevel lapse rates suggests isolated large hail will be possible. Strong gusts also may accompany these cells. Additional convection is expected to develop in the post-frontal upslope regime across southeast WY into northeast CO and shift east across northwest/north-central KS and NE. This activity also may pose an isolated hail risk in addition to localized strong gusts if forward propagating clusters can become established. ...Coastal Carolinas... Low-level vertical shear will remain enhanced and favorable for low-level rotation. Low-level instability will mostly be attributed to surface dewpoints in the mid 70s F, but will likely remain on the weak side given limited heating and poor lapse rates. Nevertheless, a low-end tornado risk may persist with any stronger cells moving onshore. ..Leitman/Thornton.. 08/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 PM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS VICINITY...AND PARTS OF THE COASTAL CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong storms will be possible from eastern Wyoming and Colorado into parts of the central Plains late this afternoon and evening, with more isolated activity into the northern Plains. A few strong thunderstorms in association with Tropical Storm Debby may impact parts of the coastal Carolinas through tonight. ...Synopsis... An upper cyclone centered over the Canadian Prairies and its attendant trough will develop south/southeast over the northern Plains and Upper Midwest today. A belt of enhanced midlevel westerly flow will overspread the region as far south as NE/KS. At the surface, an elongated low will extend from western Ontario into the eastern Dakotas by midday, and over the upper Great Lakes/MS Valley by Thursday morning. A trailing cold front will develop east/southeast across the northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest through the period. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Debby will persist near coastal South Carolina. ...Southeast WY/Northeast CO into NE/KS and Southeast SD... Southerly low-level flow will allow 60s F dewpoints to stream northward ahead of the cold front. Heating and steepening lapse rates will allow for a corridor of modest instability near the front by mid/late afternoon from northern/central NE into southeast SD. Isolated cells are expected to develop near the front, though may remain somewhat elevated. Nevertheless, favorable vertical shear and elongated/straight hodographs amid modestly steep midlevel lapse rates suggests isolated large hail will be possible. Strong gusts also may accompany these cells. Additional convection is expected to develop in the post-frontal upslope regime across southeast WY into northeast CO and shift east across northwest/north-central KS and NE. This activity also may pose an isolated hail risk in addition to localized strong gusts if forward propagating clusters can become established. ...Coastal Carolinas... Low-level vertical shear will remain enhanced and favorable for low-level rotation. Low-level instability will mostly be attributed to surface dewpoints in the mid 70s F, but will likely remain on the weak side given limited heating and poor lapse rates. Nevertheless, a low-end tornado risk may persist with any stronger cells moving onshore. ..Leitman/Thornton.. 08/07/2024 Read more

MD 1853 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 609... FOR NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA
Mesoscale Discussion 1853 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0956 PM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Areas affected...north-central Montana Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 609... Valid 070256Z - 070400Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 609 continues. SUMMARY...Damaging wind threat continues in WW609. DISCUSSION...A cluster of storms across northern Montana continues eastward, with a trend toward more linear storm mode. This will support increasing potential for strong to severe gusts. Radar from Great Falls (KTFX) shows an increase in winds 45-55 mph around 1 kft within the line northwest of Great Falls, with an increase in lightning activity over the last 30 minutes. Though the downstream environment is characterized as weakly unstable (MLCAPE around 250 J/kg), strong deep layer shear around 45-50 kts could continue to support a few organized segments with potential for strong to severe gusts. ..Thornton.. 08/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GGW...TFX... LAT...LON 48921120 48291160 47901178 47511188 47281179 47221131 47341011 47620938 47880856 48310853 48850853 48980858 48921120 Read more

WW 0608 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 608 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WNW CDR TO 65 ENE GCC TO 15 E 4BQ TO 25 WNW BHK. ..THORNTON..08/07/24 ATTN...WFO...BYZ...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 608 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC011-025-070440- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CARTER FALLON SDC019-033-063-081-093-103-070440- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUTTE CUSTER HARDING LAWRENCE MEADE PENNINGTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0608 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 608 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WNW CDR TO 65 ENE GCC TO 15 E 4BQ TO 25 WNW BHK. ..THORNTON..08/07/24 ATTN...WFO...BYZ...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 608 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC011-025-070440- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CARTER FALLON SDC019-033-063-081-093-103-070440- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUTTE CUSTER HARDING LAWRENCE MEADE PENNINGTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 608 SEVERE TSTM MT SD WY 062205Z - 070600Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 608 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 405 PM MDT Tue Aug 6 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southeast Montana Western South Dakota Northeast Wyoming * Effective this Tuesday afternoon from 405 PM until Midnight MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop and intensify through the late afternoon and evening and spread eastward across the Watch area. The stronger storms will potentially yield a risk for severe gusts (60-70 mph). Large hail (1 to 1.5 inches in diameter) may also accompany the more intense storms. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 85 statute miles north and south of a line from 65 miles southwest of Miles City MT to 45 miles north northeast of Rapid City SD. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 605...WW 606...WW 607... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 27035. ...Smith Read more

WW 0609 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 609 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW BTM TO 65 ENE CTB. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1853 ..THORNTON..08/07/24 ATTN...WFO...TFX...GGW...MSO... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 609 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC005-007-013-015-021-027-033-041-043-045-049-051-055-059-069- 071-079-083-109-070440- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLAINE BROADWATER CASCADE CHOUTEAU DAWSON FERGUS GARFIELD HILL JEFFERSON JUDITH BASIN LEWIS AND CLARK LIBERTY MCCONE MEAGHER PETROLEUM PHILLIPS PRAIRIE RICHLAND WIBAUX THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0609 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 609 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW BTM TO 65 ENE CTB. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1853 ..THORNTON..08/07/24 ATTN...WFO...TFX...GGW...MSO... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 609 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC005-007-013-015-021-027-033-041-043-045-049-051-055-059-069- 071-079-083-109-070440- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLAINE BROADWATER CASCADE CHOUTEAU DAWSON FERGUS GARFIELD HILL JEFFERSON JUDITH BASIN LEWIS AND CLARK LIBERTY MCCONE MEAGHER PETROLEUM PHILLIPS PRAIRIE RICHLAND WIBAUX THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 609 SEVERE TSTM MT 062255Z - 070600Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 609 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 455 PM MDT Tue Aug 6 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northern into Central and Eastern Montana * Effective this Tuesday afternoon from 455 PM until Midnight MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms will continue to develop and intensify through the mid evening. The stronger initial cellular storms will pose an isolated risk for large hail (1 to 2 inches in diameter) and severe gusts. Additional storms with some outflow merging and upscale growth into one or more clusters is expected later this evening. Severe gusts (60-70 mph) and perhaps large hail may accompany this activity late this evening into the early overnight. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 90 statute miles north and south of a line from 75 miles north northwest of Drummond MT to 20 miles northeast of Glendive MT. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 605...WW 606...WW 607...WW 608... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 27035. ...Smith Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 07 Aug 2024 02:54:08 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 07 Aug 2024 03:29:22 GMT

Issued at 800 PM PDT Tue Aug 06 2024 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 070253 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Emilia Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052024 800 PM PDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Emilia continues to display a large cold convective area on infrared satellite imagery. A helpful 06/2108 UTC AMSR2 pass indicated that the center of Emilia was a bit farther to the northeast than previously thought. This places the center farther away from the middle of the central convective area, and closer to the northern edge of the deep convection. This is not surprising, since the SHIPS intensity guidance continues to diagnose 15 to 20 kt of northeasterly vertical wind shear. Although the CIMSS ADT is showing a current intensity of 59 kt, the farther north placement of the center relative to the convection means that the cyclone might not be quite that strong. The intensity is held at 55 kt for this advisory. Emilia has been moving just west of due north, or 350/8-kt. Emilia should gradually turn more toward the northwest over the next 24 h as it gets closer to Tropical Storm Fabio, which is currently located only about 260 n mi north of Emilia. After Emilia absorbs Fabio in 24 to 36 h, a turn toward the west-northwest is expected. The west-northwest motion should continue after that time, as Emilia weakens and is steered more by the low-level flow. Emilia is still feeling the effects of moderate northeasterly wind shear, as mentioned above. The shear is forecast to diminish in 12 to 24 h, but interactions with Fabio's circulation could complicate the intensity forecast. Some slight intensification is possible during the next 12-18 h if Emilia is able to fight off the moderate wind shear. Emilia is expected to move into SSTs colder than 26C in 24-36 h, so steady weakening is forecast beyond that time. The latest intensity forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. The GFS and ECMWF simulated satellite imagery suggests that Emilia should become a remnant low by 96 h, and the NHC forecast follows suit with those solutions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0300Z 15.7N 115.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 07/1200Z 17.4N 116.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 08/0000Z 19.3N 118.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 08/1200Z 20.5N 121.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 09/0000Z 21.4N 123.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 09/1200Z 22.1N 126.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 10/0000Z 22.7N 128.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 11/0000Z 23.7N 132.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 12/0000Z 24.5N 136.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Hagen/Beven

Issued at 0300 UTC WED AUG 07 2024 173 FOPZ15 KNHC 070250 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM EMILIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052024 0300 UTC WED AUG 07 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 20 2(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) 15N 115W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 15N 115W 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 20N 115W 34 5 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 15N 120W 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 120W 34 2 29(31) 48(79) 1(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) 20N 120W 50 X 3( 3) 40(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) 11(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 3(11) X(11) X(11) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) 25N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) $$ FORECASTER HAGEN/BEVEN

Issued at 0300 UTC WED AUG 07 2024 230 WTPZ25 KNHC 070249 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM EMILIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052024 0300 UTC WED AUG 07 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 115.5W AT 07/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 60SE 40SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 120SE 110SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 300SE 180SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 115.5W AT 07/0300Z AT 07/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 115.2W FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 17.4N 116.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 120SE 90SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 19.3N 118.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 20.5N 121.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 21.4N 123.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 22.1N 126.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 22.7N 128.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 23.7N 132.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 24.5N 136.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.7N 115.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0900Z $$ FORECASTER HAGEN/BEVEN

Issued at 800 PM PDT Tue Aug 06 2024 231 WTPZ35 KNHC 070249 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Emilia Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052024 800 PM PDT Tue Aug 06 2024 ...EMILIA MOVING NORTHWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.7N 115.5W ABOUT 615 MI...990 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Emilia was located near latitude 15.7 North, longitude 115.5 West. Emilia is moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn to the northwest is expected by Wednesday morning, followed by a gradual turn to the west-northwest on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible during the next 12 to 24 hours. Weakening is expected to begin Wednesday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Hagen/Beven

...EMILIA MOVING NORTHWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... As of 8:00 PM PDT Tue Aug 6 the center of Emilia was located near 15.7, -115.5 with movement N at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 990 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 07 Aug 2024 02:49:36 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 07 Aug 2024 03:35:05 GMT

Issued at 800 PM PDT Tue Aug 06 2024 678 WTPZ41 KNHC 070248 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Fabio Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062024 800 PM PDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Deep convection associated with Fabio has decreased significantly since the previous advisory, with most of the convection off to the northeast of the low-level center. The latest subjective intensity estimates are 45 kt from both TAFB and SAB, and recent objective intensity estimates from CIMSS range from 35 to 53 kt. The intensity is lowered a bit to 45 kt, which is a compromise of the data. Moderate westerly wind shear should continue to be an issue for the next 12 h or so. After that, Fabio will increasingly interact with Emilia as SSTs along Fabio's path decrease to below 26C in 18 to 24 h. These factors are likely to cause some additional weakening before Fabio dissipates or merges with Emilia. Fabio should move on a west-northwest course over the next 24 h. The 18Z GFS and 12Z ECMWF models are both forecasting Fabio to dissipate or merge with Emilia in 24 to 36 h. Therefore, the NHC forecast now calls for dissipation by hour 36. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0300Z 20.0N 115.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 07/1200Z 20.6N 117.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 08/0000Z 20.9N 120.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Hagen/Beven