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SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 AM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024 Valid 071300Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS AND COASTAL CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Marginal severe-weather potential is apparent over parts of the central Great Plains and coastal Carolinas. ...Synopsis... The persistent western CONUS anticyclone will contract through the period and shift westward across the southern Great Basin, in response to both infusions of positive vorticity in its eastern semicircle, and more strongly, amplification/progression of a northern-stream synoptic trough over western/central Canada. That trough -- evident in moisture-channel imagery from a low over north-central MB west-southwestward across the Canadian Rockies -- will move southward through the period. By 12Z tomorrow, the 500-mb low should cross the remainder of central/southern MB to near the eastern ND/MB border. Associated height falls and cyclonic flow aloft will spread southward over the northern Plains today, to the central Plains late tonight. Downstream, the northern-stream flow will flatten to a more-zonal configuration through the period, across the Upper Great Lakes, the St. Lawrence Valley and northern New England. This temporarily maintains a dearth of steering flow near T.S. Debby, with weak poleward/inland motion forecast by NHC through 12Z tomorrow. See latest NHC advisories for track/intensity forecasts for Debby, as well as tropical watches/warnings. At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a wavy, quasistationary to slowly moving cold front from southern New England coastal waters westward over northeastern PA, then southwestward through a low near HTS, becoming a cold front over central KY to northeastern OK, through a low near LTS, then quasistationary again northwestward to a weak low over southeastern CO. The boundary should continue southward across parts of KY, TN, northern MS and AR, amidst broader northerlies extending westward from the circulation of T.S. Debby. A separate cold front -- related to the northern-stream perturbation over Canada -- was drawn from southeastern MB to near a BIS-RAP-RWL line. By 00Z, this front should extend from western parts of northwestern ON southwestward over northern MN, eastern SD, central NE, and northeastern CO. By 12Z tomorrow, the front should reach western parts of Lake Superior and WI, then southwestward over western IA, southeastern NE, southwestern KS, and northeastern NM. ...Central Great Plains... Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are forecast to form this afternoon and evening -- mainly on the cold front over NE and southeastern SD, and over higher elevations of southeastern WY and north-central/northeastern CO behind the front. Activity will pose a threat for isolated large hail and severe gusts before weakening overnight. Once an area of clouds and precip now over southern SD and northern NE exits the area, afternoon destabilization should reduce EML-related CINH ahead of the front through the afternoon, with frontal lift expected to be strong enough to break the cap in a few spots by late afternoon. Surface dewpoints in the upper 50s to low 60s F (locally higher) will contribute to a prefrontal plume of 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE that will narrow with northeastward extent into lower antecedent theta-e. The southern fringe of falls and a tightening gradient of heights aloft will extend across parts of this area from late afternoon onward as well, contributing to favorable deep shear for some storm organization and isolated supercell potential -- with effective-shear magnitudes generally 35-45 kt. Stronger veering with height -- but somewhat weaker mid/upper flow -- will characterize the post-frontal upslope regime, with elongated, nearly straight hodographs and similar bulk-shear values. Well-mixed subcloud layers will support gust potential, which may become concentrated on the mesobeta scale where any upscale clustering and cold-pool development can occur (most probable with activity initiated in the higher elevations). ...T.S. Debby -- Coastal Carolinas... As Debby gradually turns and moves northward to northwestward, only a slow corresponding shift of the tornado potential will occur. Inland destabilization is expected to be minimal, owing to extensive cloud cover and areas of precip north of center, and acting as a northern/northwestern limiter to the threat. Meanwhile the skeletal to almost nonexistent core convective structure and weaker shear will minimize potential closer to center. This leaves a segment of eastern NC near the sounds and Outer Banks today and tonight, as well as perhaps a small part of the adjoining SC coastal areas today, with potential for isolated, mainly short-lived supercells in the middle/outer bands. While hodographs are not forecast to be especially large, compared to many TC-tornado events, 150-250 J/kg effective SRH for northwestward-moving cells has been present in VWP hodographs and 6-hourly RAOBs, and should continue. This will overlap favorable buoyancy within roughly 75-100 nm inland of the beaches in NC. If a relatively concentrated area of sustained, multiple supercell development or potential appears for a particular band, a smaller area of greater probabilities may be added in a subsequent outlook. ..Edwards/Dean.. 08/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 AM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024 Valid 071300Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS AND COASTAL CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Marginal severe-weather potential is apparent over parts of the central Great Plains and coastal Carolinas. ...Synopsis... The persistent western CONUS anticyclone will contract through the period and shift westward across the southern Great Basin, in response to both infusions of positive vorticity in its eastern semicircle, and more strongly, amplification/progression of a northern-stream synoptic trough over western/central Canada. That trough -- evident in moisture-channel imagery from a low over north-central MB west-southwestward across the Canadian Rockies -- will move southward through the period. By 12Z tomorrow, the 500-mb low should cross the remainder of central/southern MB to near the eastern ND/MB border. Associated height falls and cyclonic flow aloft will spread southward over the northern Plains today, to the central Plains late tonight. Downstream, the northern-stream flow will flatten to a more-zonal configuration through the period, across the Upper Great Lakes, the St. Lawrence Valley and northern New England. This temporarily maintains a dearth of steering flow near T.S. Debby, with weak poleward/inland motion forecast by NHC through 12Z tomorrow. See latest NHC advisories for track/intensity forecasts for Debby, as well as tropical watches/warnings. At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a wavy, quasistationary to slowly moving cold front from southern New England coastal waters westward over northeastern PA, then southwestward through a low near HTS, becoming a cold front over central KY to northeastern OK, through a low near LTS, then quasistationary again northwestward to a weak low over southeastern CO. The boundary should continue southward across parts of KY, TN, northern MS and AR, amidst broader northerlies extending westward from the circulation of T.S. Debby. A separate cold front -- related to the northern-stream perturbation over Canada -- was drawn from southeastern MB to near a BIS-RAP-RWL line. By 00Z, this front should extend from western parts of northwestern ON southwestward over northern MN, eastern SD, central NE, and northeastern CO. By 12Z tomorrow, the front should reach western parts of Lake Superior and WI, then southwestward over western IA, southeastern NE, southwestern KS, and northeastern NM. ...Central Great Plains... Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are forecast to form this afternoon and evening -- mainly on the cold front over NE and southeastern SD, and over higher elevations of southeastern WY and north-central/northeastern CO behind the front. Activity will pose a threat for isolated large hail and severe gusts before weakening overnight. Once an area of clouds and precip now over southern SD and northern NE exits the area, afternoon destabilization should reduce EML-related CINH ahead of the front through the afternoon, with frontal lift expected to be strong enough to break the cap in a few spots by late afternoon. Surface dewpoints in the upper 50s to low 60s F (locally higher) will contribute to a prefrontal plume of 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE that will narrow with northeastward extent into lower antecedent theta-e. The southern fringe of falls and a tightening gradient of heights aloft will extend across parts of this area from late afternoon onward as well, contributing to favorable deep shear for some storm organization and isolated supercell potential -- with effective-shear magnitudes generally 35-45 kt. Stronger veering with height -- but somewhat weaker mid/upper flow -- will characterize the post-frontal upslope regime, with elongated, nearly straight hodographs and similar bulk-shear values. Well-mixed subcloud layers will support gust potential, which may become concentrated on the mesobeta scale where any upscale clustering and cold-pool development can occur (most probable with activity initiated in the higher elevations). ...T.S. Debby -- Coastal Carolinas... As Debby gradually turns and moves northward to northwestward, only a slow corresponding shift of the tornado potential will occur. Inland destabilization is expected to be minimal, owing to extensive cloud cover and areas of precip north of center, and acting as a northern/northwestern limiter to the threat. Meanwhile the skeletal to almost nonexistent core convective structure and weaker shear will minimize potential closer to center. This leaves a segment of eastern NC near the sounds and Outer Banks today and tonight, as well as perhaps a small part of the adjoining SC coastal areas today, with potential for isolated, mainly short-lived supercells in the middle/outer bands. While hodographs are not forecast to be especially large, compared to many TC-tornado events, 150-250 J/kg effective SRH for northwestward-moving cells has been present in VWP hodographs and 6-hourly RAOBs, and should continue. This will overlap favorable buoyancy within roughly 75-100 nm inland of the beaches in NC. If a relatively concentrated area of sustained, multiple supercell development or potential appears for a particular band, a smaller area of greater probabilities may be added in a subsequent outlook. ..Edwards/Dean.. 08/07/2024 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 071128
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Wed Aug 7 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Emilia, located several hundred miles southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula, and on Tropical Storm
Fabio, located several hundred miles west-southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

MD 1855 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST NC INTO EXTREME NORTHEAST SC
Mesoscale Discussion 1855 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 AM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024 Areas affected...Southeast NC into extreme northeast SC Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 070655Z - 071000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A brief tornado or two will be possible overnight. DISCUSSION...A band of convection along the east/northeast periphery of Tropical Storm Debby's circulation has become somewhat more well-defined early this morning. A theta-e/instability gradient persists near the coast, with a narrow inland zone of MLCAPE near 1000 J/kg noted (per recent objective mesoanalyses and a modified 06Z sounding from KMHX) where temperatures remain near 80 F. The 06Z MHX sounding and recent VWPs from KMHX/KLTX depict 0-1 km SRH of around 150-200 m2/s2 for observed cell motions, which is sufficient to support at least transient low-level rotation with the strongest cells. While ongoing convection has generally struggled to become organized, a brief tornado or two cannot be ruled out overnight as stronger embedded cells within the primary convective band move inland and cross the near-coastal baroclinic zone. ..Dean/Edwards.. 08/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MHX...ILM... LAT...LON 34147884 34387852 35037745 35037690 34857667 34427693 33847770 33627823 33527882 33797896 34147884 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance indicates that the initially prominent higher-latitude mid-level ridging emerging from the Canadian Northwest Territories will gradually become suppressed through this period. Although there is notable spread concerning the downstream acceleration of the initially significant mid-level low to its southeast, it appears that larger-scale mid-level troughing will slowly shift eastward in positively tilted fashion, through the St. Lawrence Valley and lower Great Lakes region by late this coming weekend, through the Northeast and Canadian Maritimes by the middle of next week. In advance of the troughing, Debby's remnant surface low may interact with a surface cold front advancing to the east of the lower Great Lakes/upper Ohio Valley, before perhaps merging into the primary surface cyclone across southern Quebec by Saturday. Models have varied concerning these developments, but tropical pre-frontal moistening in the presence of intensifying deep-layer southerly wind fields might be accompanied by an evolving low-topped convective band with potential to produce damaging wind gusts near/east of the Hudson/Champlain Valleys through New England. Due to lingering uncertainties severe probabilities are begin maintained at less than 15 percent, but this could change in later outlooks for Saturday. Otherwise, the potential for severe weather elsewhere across the U.S. late this coming weekend into the middle of next week appears likely to be remain limited by the lack of stronger boundary-layer destabilization. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance indicates that the initially prominent higher-latitude mid-level ridging emerging from the Canadian Northwest Territories will gradually become suppressed through this period. Although there is notable spread concerning the downstream acceleration of the initially significant mid-level low to its southeast, it appears that larger-scale mid-level troughing will slowly shift eastward in positively tilted fashion, through the St. Lawrence Valley and lower Great Lakes region by late this coming weekend, through the Northeast and Canadian Maritimes by the middle of next week. In advance of the troughing, Debby's remnant surface low may interact with a surface cold front advancing to the east of the lower Great Lakes/upper Ohio Valley, before perhaps merging into the primary surface cyclone across southern Quebec by Saturday. Models have varied concerning these developments, but tropical pre-frontal moistening in the presence of intensifying deep-layer southerly wind fields might be accompanied by an evolving low-topped convective band with potential to produce damaging wind gusts near/east of the Hudson/Champlain Valleys through New England. Due to lingering uncertainties severe probabilities are begin maintained at less than 15 percent, but this could change in later outlooks for Saturday. Otherwise, the potential for severe weather elsewhere across the U.S. late this coming weekend into the middle of next week appears likely to be remain limited by the lack of stronger boundary-layer destabilization. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance indicates that the initially prominent higher-latitude mid-level ridging emerging from the Canadian Northwest Territories will gradually become suppressed through this period. Although there is notable spread concerning the downstream acceleration of the initially significant mid-level low to its southeast, it appears that larger-scale mid-level troughing will slowly shift eastward in positively tilted fashion, through the St. Lawrence Valley and lower Great Lakes region by late this coming weekend, through the Northeast and Canadian Maritimes by the middle of next week. In advance of the troughing, Debby's remnant surface low may interact with a surface cold front advancing to the east of the lower Great Lakes/upper Ohio Valley, before perhaps merging into the primary surface cyclone across southern Quebec by Saturday. Models have varied concerning these developments, but tropical pre-frontal moistening in the presence of intensifying deep-layer southerly wind fields might be accompanied by an evolving low-topped convective band with potential to produce damaging wind gusts near/east of the Hudson/Champlain Valleys through New England. Due to lingering uncertainties severe probabilities are begin maintained at less than 15 percent, but this could change in later outlooks for Saturday. Otherwise, the potential for severe weather elsewhere across the U.S. late this coming weekend into the middle of next week appears likely to be remain limited by the lack of stronger boundary-layer destabilization. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance indicates that the initially prominent higher-latitude mid-level ridging emerging from the Canadian Northwest Territories will gradually become suppressed through this period. Although there is notable spread concerning the downstream acceleration of the initially significant mid-level low to its southeast, it appears that larger-scale mid-level troughing will slowly shift eastward in positively tilted fashion, through the St. Lawrence Valley and lower Great Lakes region by late this coming weekend, through the Northeast and Canadian Maritimes by the middle of next week. In advance of the troughing, Debby's remnant surface low may interact with a surface cold front advancing to the east of the lower Great Lakes/upper Ohio Valley, before perhaps merging into the primary surface cyclone across southern Quebec by Saturday. Models have varied concerning these developments, but tropical pre-frontal moistening in the presence of intensifying deep-layer southerly wind fields might be accompanied by an evolving low-topped convective band with potential to produce damaging wind gusts near/east of the Hudson/Champlain Valleys through New England. Due to lingering uncertainties severe probabilities are begin maintained at less than 15 percent, but this could change in later outlooks for Saturday. Otherwise, the potential for severe weather elsewhere across the U.S. late this coming weekend into the middle of next week appears likely to be remain limited by the lack of stronger boundary-layer destabilization. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance indicates that the initially prominent higher-latitude mid-level ridging emerging from the Canadian Northwest Territories will gradually become suppressed through this period. Although there is notable spread concerning the downstream acceleration of the initially significant mid-level low to its southeast, it appears that larger-scale mid-level troughing will slowly shift eastward in positively tilted fashion, through the St. Lawrence Valley and lower Great Lakes region by late this coming weekend, through the Northeast and Canadian Maritimes by the middle of next week. In advance of the troughing, Debby's remnant surface low may interact with a surface cold front advancing to the east of the lower Great Lakes/upper Ohio Valley, before perhaps merging into the primary surface cyclone across southern Quebec by Saturday. Models have varied concerning these developments, but tropical pre-frontal moistening in the presence of intensifying deep-layer southerly wind fields might be accompanied by an evolving low-topped convective band with potential to produce damaging wind gusts near/east of the Hudson/Champlain Valleys through New England. Due to lingering uncertainties severe probabilities are begin maintained at less than 15 percent, but this could change in later outlooks for Saturday. Otherwise, the potential for severe weather elsewhere across the U.S. late this coming weekend into the middle of next week appears likely to be remain limited by the lack of stronger boundary-layer destabilization. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance indicates that the initially prominent higher-latitude mid-level ridging emerging from the Canadian Northwest Territories will gradually become suppressed through this period. Although there is notable spread concerning the downstream acceleration of the initially significant mid-level low to its southeast, it appears that larger-scale mid-level troughing will slowly shift eastward in positively tilted fashion, through the St. Lawrence Valley and lower Great Lakes region by late this coming weekend, through the Northeast and Canadian Maritimes by the middle of next week. In advance of the troughing, Debby's remnant surface low may interact with a surface cold front advancing to the east of the lower Great Lakes/upper Ohio Valley, before perhaps merging into the primary surface cyclone across southern Quebec by Saturday. Models have varied concerning these developments, but tropical pre-frontal moistening in the presence of intensifying deep-layer southerly wind fields might be accompanied by an evolving low-topped convective band with potential to produce damaging wind gusts near/east of the Hudson/Champlain Valleys through New England. Due to lingering uncertainties severe probabilities are begin maintained at less than 15 percent, but this could change in later outlooks for Saturday. Otherwise, the potential for severe weather elsewhere across the U.S. late this coming weekend into the middle of next week appears likely to be remain limited by the lack of stronger boundary-layer destabilization. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance indicates that the initially prominent higher-latitude mid-level ridging emerging from the Canadian Northwest Territories will gradually become suppressed through this period. Although there is notable spread concerning the downstream acceleration of the initially significant mid-level low to its southeast, it appears that larger-scale mid-level troughing will slowly shift eastward in positively tilted fashion, through the St. Lawrence Valley and lower Great Lakes region by late this coming weekend, through the Northeast and Canadian Maritimes by the middle of next week. In advance of the troughing, Debby's remnant surface low may interact with a surface cold front advancing to the east of the lower Great Lakes/upper Ohio Valley, before perhaps merging into the primary surface cyclone across southern Quebec by Saturday. Models have varied concerning these developments, but tropical pre-frontal moistening in the presence of intensifying deep-layer southerly wind fields might be accompanied by an evolving low-topped convective band with potential to produce damaging wind gusts near/east of the Hudson/Champlain Valleys through New England. Due to lingering uncertainties severe probabilities are begin maintained at less than 15 percent, but this could change in later outlooks for Saturday. Otherwise, the potential for severe weather elsewhere across the U.S. late this coming weekend into the middle of next week appears likely to be remain limited by the lack of stronger boundary-layer destabilization. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance indicates that the initially prominent higher-latitude mid-level ridging emerging from the Canadian Northwest Territories will gradually become suppressed through this period. Although there is notable spread concerning the downstream acceleration of the initially significant mid-level low to its southeast, it appears that larger-scale mid-level troughing will slowly shift eastward in positively tilted fashion, through the St. Lawrence Valley and lower Great Lakes region by late this coming weekend, through the Northeast and Canadian Maritimes by the middle of next week. In advance of the troughing, Debby's remnant surface low may interact with a surface cold front advancing to the east of the lower Great Lakes/upper Ohio Valley, before perhaps merging into the primary surface cyclone across southern Quebec by Saturday. Models have varied concerning these developments, but tropical pre-frontal moistening in the presence of intensifying deep-layer southerly wind fields might be accompanied by an evolving low-topped convective band with potential to produce damaging wind gusts near/east of the Hudson/Champlain Valleys through New England. Due to lingering uncertainties severe probabilities are begin maintained at less than 15 percent, but this could change in later outlooks for Saturday. Otherwise, the potential for severe weather elsewhere across the U.S. late this coming weekend into the middle of next week appears likely to be remain limited by the lack of stronger boundary-layer destabilization. Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 07 Aug 2024 08:55:42 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 07 Aug 2024 09:35:06 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 07 Aug 2024 08:51:21 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 07 Aug 2024 09:29:17 GMT

Issued at 200 AM PDT Wed Aug 07 2024 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 070850 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Fabio Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062024 200 AM PDT Wed Aug 07 2024 Thunderstorms associated with Fabio collapsed overnight and small bursts of convection are forming to the northeast of the exposed center. Objective and subjective Dvorak estimates have trended weaker this cycle, and the initial intensity is lowered to 40 kt. The storm is racing off to the west at 280/21 kt. Fabio should turn toward the west-southwest later today as the cyclone moves closer to Tropical Storm Emilia. The official track forecast is unchanged from the previous advisory. Vertical wind shear and cooling sea surface temperatures should continue to weaken Fabio. Global models are still showing the vortex being absorbed into Emilia's circulation in a day or so. The intensity forecast has been nudged downward slightly from the earlier prediction due to the weaker initial intensity. Dissipation is still expected on Thursday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0900Z 20.6N 117.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 07/1800Z 20.9N 119.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 08/0600Z 20.8N 121.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 08/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Bucci

Issued at 0900 UTC WED AUG 07 2024 021 FOPZ11 KNHC 070848 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM FABIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062024 0900 UTC WED AUG 07 2024 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FABIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 120W 34 7 3(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) $$ FORECASTER BUCCI

Issued at 0900 UTC WED AUG 07 2024 889 WTPZ21 KNHC 070848 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM FABIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062024 0900 UTC WED AUG 07 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 117.9W AT 07/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 21 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 90NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 180SE 45SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 117.9W AT 07/0900Z AT 07/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 117.0W FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 20.9N 119.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 20.8N 121.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.6N 117.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BUCCI

Issued at 200 AM PDT Wed Aug 07 2024 714 WTPZ31 KNHC 070848 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Fabio Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062024 200 AM PDT Wed Aug 07 2024 ...FABIO RACING WESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.6N 117.9W ABOUT 535 MI...865 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fabio was located near latitude 20.6 North, longitude 117.9 West. Fabio is moving toward the west near 24 mph (39 km/h). A turn toward the west-southwest with a slower forward speed is expected later tonight. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next day or so until Fabio merges with Tropical Storm Emilia. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Bucci

...FABIO RACING WESTWARD... As of 2:00 AM PDT Wed Aug 7 the center of Fabio was located near 20.6, -117.9 with movement W at 24 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Issued at 200 AM PDT Wed Aug 07 2024 867 WTPZ45 KNHC 070847 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Emilia Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052024 200 AM PDT Wed Aug 07 2024 Emilia has been holding steady tonight. Deep convection continues to regularly pulse near the center, and a long curved band extends to the southwest. Objective and subjective intensity estimates range between 48 and 65 kt. The initial intensity is held at 55 kt for the advisory cycle to represent an average of the various estimates. The storm is moving at an estimated 330/14 kt. A gradual turn to the northwest and west-northwest with an increased forward speed is expected over the next day or so as Emilia moves along the southwest periphery of a mid-level ridge. After Emilia absorbs Fabio, a slower forward motion to the west-northwest is forecast. By the end of the forecast period, the weakened storm should turn westward in the low-level flow. Only minor changes have been made to the latest track forecast, which lies between the various consensus aids. Emilia is still embedded in an area of moderate deep-layer vertical wind shear. While the shear is forecast to diminish over the next 24 h, the tropical storm should be crossing the 26 degree Celsius isotherm later today. By Thursday, Emilia is expected to absorb Tropical Storm Fabio, located to its north. As Emilia moves over the cooling sea surface temperatures and into a dry and stable environment, the storm should steadily weaken and is now forecast to lose its organized, deep convection within 72 h. The NHC prediction now shows Emilia becoming a remnant low by Saturday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0900Z 17.1N 116.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 07/1800Z 18.9N 117.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 08/0600Z 20.6N 120.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 08/1800Z 21.4N 123.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 09/0600Z 22.1N 125.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 09/1800Z 22.7N 127.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 10/0600Z 23.3N 129.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 11/0600Z 24.2N 133.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 12/0600Z 24.5N 137.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Bucci