Aggregator

Issued at 0900 UTC WED AUG 07 2024 403 FOPZ15 KNHC 070846 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM EMILIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052024 0900 UTC WED AUG 07 2024 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 4 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 115W 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 120W 34 4 80(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) 20N 120W 50 X 38(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) 20N 120W 64 X 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 125W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) 25N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) $$ FORECASTER BUCCI

Issued at 200 AM PDT Wed Aug 07 2024 925 WTPZ35 KNHC 070846 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Emilia Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052024 200 AM PDT Wed Aug 07 2024 ...EMILIA PASSING TO THE SOUTHWEST OF CLARION ISLAND ... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.1N 116.4W ABOUT 580 MI...935 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Emilia was located near latitude 17.1 North, longitude 116.4 West. Emilia is moving toward the north-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A turn and acceleration to the northwest is expected later today, followed by a gradual turn to the west-northwest with a slower forward speed on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is expected to begin later tonight or tomorrow morning. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Bucci

...EMILIA PASSING TO THE SOUTHWEST OF CLARION ISLAND ... As of 2:00 AM PDT Wed Aug 7 the center of Emilia was located near 17.1, -116.4 with movement NNW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 993 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

Issued at 0900 UTC WED AUG 07 2024 395 WTPZ25 KNHC 070846 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM EMILIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052024 0900 UTC WED AUG 07 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 116.4W AT 07/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 60SE 40SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 120SE 110SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 300SE 210SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 116.4W AT 07/0900Z AT 07/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 116.0W FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 18.9N 117.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 120SE 90SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 20.6N 120.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 21.4N 123.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 22.1N 125.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 22.7N 127.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 23.3N 129.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 24.2N 133.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 24.5N 137.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.1N 116.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BUCCI

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 AM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN VIRGINIA...THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA...CENTRAL MARYLAND AND THE EASTERN SHORE OF MARYLAND...DELAWARE...SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...MUCH OF NEW JERSEY...ADJACENT SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN LONG ISLAND... ...SUMMARY... There may be at least some continuing risk for tornadoes in advance of the remnant low of Debby, spreading across the northern Mid Atlantic region on Friday. ...Synopsis... Models indicate that an initially prominent higher-latitude ridge will generally be maintained through this period, with its mid-level height center perhaps slowly shifting east of the Canadian Northwest Territories. Some eastward redevelopment of a significant low evolving to its southeast may also commence, as a couple of embedded perturbations pivot around its circulation center near the upper Great Lakes region. This may be accompanied by modest secondary surface cyclogenesis, along an occluding surface front across the lower Great Lakes into upper St. Lawrence Valley vicinity, with a trailing cold front advancing through the remainder of the Ohio Valley, into and across the Appalachians. Through the day, Debby's remnant circulation, forecast to weaken to a depression by 12Z Friday and a remnant low by early Friday evening, appears likely to continue a gradual north-northeastward acceleration ahead of the front, to the lee of the Blue Ridge, before continuing toward the Catskill/lower Hudson Valley vicinity Friday night. ...Northern Mid Atlantic... Despite the weakening trends to Debby, models suggest that the evolution of sizable clockwise-curved low-level hodographs and appreciable boundary-layer buoyancy may be maintained into at least Friday afternoon, focused in a sector to the northeast of the accelerating surface low. It appears that this may be in the process of overspreading the Chesapeake/Delmarva vicinity as daytime heating contributes to boundary-layer destabilization, before spreading northward through the northern Mid Atlantic in advance of the more inhibiting mid-level warm core. Within this environment, the evolution of a few supercell structures posing a risk for tornadoes appears possible, before this threat wanes with the loss of daytime heating Friday evening. ..Kerr.. 08/07/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 AM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN VIRGINIA...THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA...CENTRAL MARYLAND AND THE EASTERN SHORE OF MARYLAND...DELAWARE...SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...MUCH OF NEW JERSEY...ADJACENT SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN LONG ISLAND... ...SUMMARY... There may be at least some continuing risk for tornadoes in advance of the remnant low of Debby, spreading across the northern Mid Atlantic region on Friday. ...Synopsis... Models indicate that an initially prominent higher-latitude ridge will generally be maintained through this period, with its mid-level height center perhaps slowly shifting east of the Canadian Northwest Territories. Some eastward redevelopment of a significant low evolving to its southeast may also commence, as a couple of embedded perturbations pivot around its circulation center near the upper Great Lakes region. This may be accompanied by modest secondary surface cyclogenesis, along an occluding surface front across the lower Great Lakes into upper St. Lawrence Valley vicinity, with a trailing cold front advancing through the remainder of the Ohio Valley, into and across the Appalachians. Through the day, Debby's remnant circulation, forecast to weaken to a depression by 12Z Friday and a remnant low by early Friday evening, appears likely to continue a gradual north-northeastward acceleration ahead of the front, to the lee of the Blue Ridge, before continuing toward the Catskill/lower Hudson Valley vicinity Friday night. ...Northern Mid Atlantic... Despite the weakening trends to Debby, models suggest that the evolution of sizable clockwise-curved low-level hodographs and appreciable boundary-layer buoyancy may be maintained into at least Friday afternoon, focused in a sector to the northeast of the accelerating surface low. It appears that this may be in the process of overspreading the Chesapeake/Delmarva vicinity as daytime heating contributes to boundary-layer destabilization, before spreading northward through the northern Mid Atlantic in advance of the more inhibiting mid-level warm core. Within this environment, the evolution of a few supercell structures posing a risk for tornadoes appears possible, before this threat wanes with the loss of daytime heating Friday evening. ..Kerr.. 08/07/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 AM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN VIRGINIA...THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA...CENTRAL MARYLAND AND THE EASTERN SHORE OF MARYLAND...DELAWARE...SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...MUCH OF NEW JERSEY...ADJACENT SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN LONG ISLAND... ...SUMMARY... There may be at least some continuing risk for tornadoes in advance of the remnant low of Debby, spreading across the northern Mid Atlantic region on Friday. ...Synopsis... Models indicate that an initially prominent higher-latitude ridge will generally be maintained through this period, with its mid-level height center perhaps slowly shifting east of the Canadian Northwest Territories. Some eastward redevelopment of a significant low evolving to its southeast may also commence, as a couple of embedded perturbations pivot around its circulation center near the upper Great Lakes region. This may be accompanied by modest secondary surface cyclogenesis, along an occluding surface front across the lower Great Lakes into upper St. Lawrence Valley vicinity, with a trailing cold front advancing through the remainder of the Ohio Valley, into and across the Appalachians. Through the day, Debby's remnant circulation, forecast to weaken to a depression by 12Z Friday and a remnant low by early Friday evening, appears likely to continue a gradual north-northeastward acceleration ahead of the front, to the lee of the Blue Ridge, before continuing toward the Catskill/lower Hudson Valley vicinity Friday night. ...Northern Mid Atlantic... Despite the weakening trends to Debby, models suggest that the evolution of sizable clockwise-curved low-level hodographs and appreciable boundary-layer buoyancy may be maintained into at least Friday afternoon, focused in a sector to the northeast of the accelerating surface low. It appears that this may be in the process of overspreading the Chesapeake/Delmarva vicinity as daytime heating contributes to boundary-layer destabilization, before spreading northward through the northern Mid Atlantic in advance of the more inhibiting mid-level warm core. Within this environment, the evolution of a few supercell structures posing a risk for tornadoes appears possible, before this threat wanes with the loss of daytime heating Friday evening. ..Kerr.. 08/07/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 AM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN VIRGINIA...THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA...CENTRAL MARYLAND AND THE EASTERN SHORE OF MARYLAND...DELAWARE...SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...MUCH OF NEW JERSEY...ADJACENT SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN LONG ISLAND... ...SUMMARY... There may be at least some continuing risk for tornadoes in advance of the remnant low of Debby, spreading across the northern Mid Atlantic region on Friday. ...Synopsis... Models indicate that an initially prominent higher-latitude ridge will generally be maintained through this period, with its mid-level height center perhaps slowly shifting east of the Canadian Northwest Territories. Some eastward redevelopment of a significant low evolving to its southeast may also commence, as a couple of embedded perturbations pivot around its circulation center near the upper Great Lakes region. This may be accompanied by modest secondary surface cyclogenesis, along an occluding surface front across the lower Great Lakes into upper St. Lawrence Valley vicinity, with a trailing cold front advancing through the remainder of the Ohio Valley, into and across the Appalachians. Through the day, Debby's remnant circulation, forecast to weaken to a depression by 12Z Friday and a remnant low by early Friday evening, appears likely to continue a gradual north-northeastward acceleration ahead of the front, to the lee of the Blue Ridge, before continuing toward the Catskill/lower Hudson Valley vicinity Friday night. ...Northern Mid Atlantic... Despite the weakening trends to Debby, models suggest that the evolution of sizable clockwise-curved low-level hodographs and appreciable boundary-layer buoyancy may be maintained into at least Friday afternoon, focused in a sector to the northeast of the accelerating surface low. It appears that this may be in the process of overspreading the Chesapeake/Delmarva vicinity as daytime heating contributes to boundary-layer destabilization, before spreading northward through the northern Mid Atlantic in advance of the more inhibiting mid-level warm core. Within this environment, the evolution of a few supercell structures posing a risk for tornadoes appears possible, before this threat wanes with the loss of daytime heating Friday evening. ..Kerr.. 08/07/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 AM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN VIRGINIA...THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA...CENTRAL MARYLAND AND THE EASTERN SHORE OF MARYLAND...DELAWARE...SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...MUCH OF NEW JERSEY...ADJACENT SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN LONG ISLAND... ...SUMMARY... There may be at least some continuing risk for tornadoes in advance of the remnant low of Debby, spreading across the northern Mid Atlantic region on Friday. ...Synopsis... Models indicate that an initially prominent higher-latitude ridge will generally be maintained through this period, with its mid-level height center perhaps slowly shifting east of the Canadian Northwest Territories. Some eastward redevelopment of a significant low evolving to its southeast may also commence, as a couple of embedded perturbations pivot around its circulation center near the upper Great Lakes region. This may be accompanied by modest secondary surface cyclogenesis, along an occluding surface front across the lower Great Lakes into upper St. Lawrence Valley vicinity, with a trailing cold front advancing through the remainder of the Ohio Valley, into and across the Appalachians. Through the day, Debby's remnant circulation, forecast to weaken to a depression by 12Z Friday and a remnant low by early Friday evening, appears likely to continue a gradual north-northeastward acceleration ahead of the front, to the lee of the Blue Ridge, before continuing toward the Catskill/lower Hudson Valley vicinity Friday night. ...Northern Mid Atlantic... Despite the weakening trends to Debby, models suggest that the evolution of sizable clockwise-curved low-level hodographs and appreciable boundary-layer buoyancy may be maintained into at least Friday afternoon, focused in a sector to the northeast of the accelerating surface low. It appears that this may be in the process of overspreading the Chesapeake/Delmarva vicinity as daytime heating contributes to boundary-layer destabilization, before spreading northward through the northern Mid Atlantic in advance of the more inhibiting mid-level warm core. Within this environment, the evolution of a few supercell structures posing a risk for tornadoes appears possible, before this threat wanes with the loss of daytime heating Friday evening. ..Kerr.. 08/07/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 AM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN VIRGINIA...THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA...CENTRAL MARYLAND AND THE EASTERN SHORE OF MARYLAND...DELAWARE...SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...MUCH OF NEW JERSEY...ADJACENT SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN LONG ISLAND... ...SUMMARY... There may be at least some continuing risk for tornadoes in advance of the remnant low of Debby, spreading across the northern Mid Atlantic region on Friday. ...Synopsis... Models indicate that an initially prominent higher-latitude ridge will generally be maintained through this period, with its mid-level height center perhaps slowly shifting east of the Canadian Northwest Territories. Some eastward redevelopment of a significant low evolving to its southeast may also commence, as a couple of embedded perturbations pivot around its circulation center near the upper Great Lakes region. This may be accompanied by modest secondary surface cyclogenesis, along an occluding surface front across the lower Great Lakes into upper St. Lawrence Valley vicinity, with a trailing cold front advancing through the remainder of the Ohio Valley, into and across the Appalachians. Through the day, Debby's remnant circulation, forecast to weaken to a depression by 12Z Friday and a remnant low by early Friday evening, appears likely to continue a gradual north-northeastward acceleration ahead of the front, to the lee of the Blue Ridge, before continuing toward the Catskill/lower Hudson Valley vicinity Friday night. ...Northern Mid Atlantic... Despite the weakening trends to Debby, models suggest that the evolution of sizable clockwise-curved low-level hodographs and appreciable boundary-layer buoyancy may be maintained into at least Friday afternoon, focused in a sector to the northeast of the accelerating surface low. It appears that this may be in the process of overspreading the Chesapeake/Delmarva vicinity as daytime heating contributes to boundary-layer destabilization, before spreading northward through the northern Mid Atlantic in advance of the more inhibiting mid-level warm core. Within this environment, the evolution of a few supercell structures posing a risk for tornadoes appears possible, before this threat wanes with the loss of daytime heating Friday evening. ..Kerr.. 08/07/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...Synopsis... A trough moving across the northern Rockies into the northern Plains will suppress the western US ridge on Thursday. Flow aloft will shift to become more northwesterly, with monsoonal moisture shifting southward. Isolated dry thunderstorm chances will be possible along the fringes of the deeper monsoonal moisture across southern/central Utah into western Colorado and western Wyoming. In this region, precipitable water values around 0.50-0.75 inch and mainly mid-level moisture will result in high-based convection, with potential for new ignitions amid receptive fuels, and little precipitation. Gusty and erratic winds will be possible near thunderstorms. ..Thornton.. 08/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...Synopsis... A trough moving across the northern Rockies into the northern Plains will suppress the western US ridge on Thursday. Flow aloft will shift to become more northwesterly, with monsoonal moisture shifting southward. Isolated dry thunderstorm chances will be possible along the fringes of the deeper monsoonal moisture across southern/central Utah into western Colorado and western Wyoming. In this region, precipitable water values around 0.50-0.75 inch and mainly mid-level moisture will result in high-based convection, with potential for new ignitions amid receptive fuels, and little precipitation. Gusty and erratic winds will be possible near thunderstorms. ..Thornton.. 08/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...Synopsis... A trough moving across the northern Rockies into the northern Plains will suppress the western US ridge on Thursday. Flow aloft will shift to become more northwesterly, with monsoonal moisture shifting southward. Isolated dry thunderstorm chances will be possible along the fringes of the deeper monsoonal moisture across southern/central Utah into western Colorado and western Wyoming. In this region, precipitable water values around 0.50-0.75 inch and mainly mid-level moisture will result in high-based convection, with potential for new ignitions amid receptive fuels, and little precipitation. Gusty and erratic winds will be possible near thunderstorms. ..Thornton.. 08/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...Synopsis... A trough moving across the northern Rockies into the northern Plains will suppress the western US ridge on Thursday. Flow aloft will shift to become more northwesterly, with monsoonal moisture shifting southward. Isolated dry thunderstorm chances will be possible along the fringes of the deeper monsoonal moisture across southern/central Utah into western Colorado and western Wyoming. In this region, precipitable water values around 0.50-0.75 inch and mainly mid-level moisture will result in high-based convection, with potential for new ignitions amid receptive fuels, and little precipitation. Gusty and erratic winds will be possible near thunderstorms. ..Thornton.. 08/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...Synopsis... A trough moving across the northern Rockies into the northern Plains will suppress the western US ridge on Thursday. Flow aloft will shift to become more northwesterly, with monsoonal moisture shifting southward. Isolated dry thunderstorm chances will be possible along the fringes of the deeper monsoonal moisture across southern/central Utah into western Colorado and western Wyoming. In this region, precipitable water values around 0.50-0.75 inch and mainly mid-level moisture will result in high-based convection, with potential for new ignitions amid receptive fuels, and little precipitation. Gusty and erratic winds will be possible near thunderstorms. ..Thornton.. 08/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...Synopsis... A trough moving across the northern Rockies into the northern Plains will suppress the western US ridge on Thursday. Flow aloft will shift to become more northwesterly, with monsoonal moisture shifting southward. Isolated dry thunderstorm chances will be possible along the fringes of the deeper monsoonal moisture across southern/central Utah into western Colorado and western Wyoming. In this region, precipitable water values around 0.50-0.75 inch and mainly mid-level moisture will result in high-based convection, with potential for new ignitions amid receptive fuels, and little precipitation. Gusty and erratic winds will be possible near thunderstorms. ..Thornton.. 08/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...Synopsis... A trough moving across the northern Rockies into the northern Plains will suppress the western US ridge on Thursday. Flow aloft will shift to become more northwesterly, with monsoonal moisture shifting southward. Isolated dry thunderstorm chances will be possible along the fringes of the deeper monsoonal moisture across southern/central Utah into western Colorado and western Wyoming. In this region, precipitable water values around 0.50-0.75 inch and mainly mid-level moisture will result in high-based convection, with potential for new ignitions amid receptive fuels, and little precipitation. Gusty and erratic winds will be possible near thunderstorms. ..Thornton.. 08/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0119 AM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...Synopsis... ...Isolated Dry Thunderstorms... Isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible across portions of central/southern Utah, northwestern/central Colorado, and south-central Wyoming. A plume of mainly mid-level moisture, with precipitable water values around 0.50-0.75, will support high-based convection with little measurable rainfall, amid receptive fuels. Gusty and erratic outflow winds will be possible near thunderstorms. ...Wind/Dry... Enhanced mid-level westerly flow will remain over the Snake River Plain this afternoon. Sustained surface winds 15-20 mph will overlap with relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent and receptive fuels. Elevated fire conditions may extend into northern Nevada, however this remains too localized to include with this outlook. ..Thornton.. 08/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0119 AM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...Synopsis... ...Isolated Dry Thunderstorms... Isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible across portions of central/southern Utah, northwestern/central Colorado, and south-central Wyoming. A plume of mainly mid-level moisture, with precipitable water values around 0.50-0.75, will support high-based convection with little measurable rainfall, amid receptive fuels. Gusty and erratic outflow winds will be possible near thunderstorms. ...Wind/Dry... Enhanced mid-level westerly flow will remain over the Snake River Plain this afternoon. Sustained surface winds 15-20 mph will overlap with relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent and receptive fuels. Elevated fire conditions may extend into northern Nevada, however this remains too localized to include with this outlook. ..Thornton.. 08/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0119 AM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...Synopsis... ...Isolated Dry Thunderstorms... Isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible across portions of central/southern Utah, northwestern/central Colorado, and south-central Wyoming. A plume of mainly mid-level moisture, with precipitable water values around 0.50-0.75, will support high-based convection with little measurable rainfall, amid receptive fuels. Gusty and erratic outflow winds will be possible near thunderstorms. ...Wind/Dry... Enhanced mid-level westerly flow will remain over the Snake River Plain this afternoon. Sustained surface winds 15-20 mph will overlap with relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent and receptive fuels. Elevated fire conditions may extend into northern Nevada, however this remains too localized to include with this outlook. ..Thornton.. 08/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more