Aggregator

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0448 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z A broad longwave trough will be present through the first part of the extended period over the western CONUS. Residual stronger flow from a departing shortwave trough may result in some dry, breezy conditions with receptive fuels across parts of New Mexico and far southeast Colorado on Day 3 (Tuesday), and 40% Critical highlights have been maintained in this area. By Day 4 (Wednesday), a plume of tropical moisture is expected to begin advecting northwestward into the southern Rockies, which may provide a reprieve from fire weather concerns in this area due to precipitation and high RH. Farther west across portions of Arizona, Utah, and Nevada, some stronger flow aloft may result in some dry, breezy conditions on Days 4 and 5 (Wednesday and Thursday), though confidence is too low to highlight individual areas at the moment. By the end of the period, ridging develops over the southwestern CONUS, confining strongest mid-level flow to the northwestern CONUS. Some Elevated or Critical fire risk is possible in this region, though again, confidence is too low to highlight individual areas at this time. ..Supinie.. 06/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0424 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 424 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNE PIA TO 30 S RFD TO 10 NE RFD TO 20 E MSN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1291 ..THORNTON..06/16/24 ATTN...WFO...DVN...LOT...ILX...MKX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 424 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC007-031-037-043-063-089-091-093-097-099-111-123-155-197- 162240- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOONE COOK DE KALB DUPAGE GRUNDY KANE KANKAKEE KENDALL LAKE LA SALLE MCHENRY MARSHALL PUTNAM WILL INC089-127-162240- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LAKE PORTER WIC055-059-079-101-127-133-162240- Read more

WW 0424 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 424 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE MLI TO 35 E MLI TO 25 WSW RFD TO 30 WNW RFD TO 30 SSE LNR. ..KERR..06/16/24 ATTN...WFO...DVN...LOT...ILX...MKX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 424 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC007-011-031-037-043-063-089-091-093-097-099-103-111-123-141- 155-175-177-197-201-162140- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOONE BUREAU COOK DE KALB DUPAGE GRUNDY KANE KANKAKEE KENDALL LAKE LA SALLE LEE MCHENRY MARSHALL OGLE PUTNAM STARK STEPHENSON WILL WINNEBAGO INC089-127-162140- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LAKE PORTER WIC025-045-055-059-079-101-105-127-133-162140- Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms appear possible across parts of the upper Mississippi Valley late this afternoon, with additional storms likely tonight across the north-central Plains to upper Mississippi Valley. Large hail and damaging winds are the primary risks. A small bowing complex, with mainly a severe/damaging wind threat, will continue across parts of northern Illinois and vicinity this afternoon. ...20Z Update... ...Northern Illinois/Southern Wisconsin... A well-defined, compact MCV continues to move northeastward along the central/northern IA/IL border. Several strong to severe gusts were measured along the outflow associated with thunderstorm generated by this vorticity max over the past hour. Ample low-level moisture and buoyancy exists downstream across northern IL and far southern WI, which will likely support the development of additional storms along the outflow. As a result, the potential for strong to severe gusts is expected to extend into the area this afternoon, and Severe Thunderstorm Watch #424 was recently issued to address this threat. ...Northern/Central MN into northern WI/western Upper MI... A cold front continues to push eastward across western MN this afternoon. Downstream destabilization has been mitigated by abundant cloud cover thus far, but continued low-level moisture advection is still expected to help remove the remaining convective inhibition over the next few hours. As such, development along the front as it continues eastward still appears possible this afternoon. Large hail and damaging gusts are the primary risks, but a tornado or two is possible if more discrete, cellular activity is realized. ...Northern/Central Plains to the Upper Midwest/Upper MS Valley... Recent surface analysis places a low over northeast CO and another low over west-central MN. Boundary between these two lows has recently started pushing back northward/northeastward as a warm front, particularly from southwest into south-central NE. Increasing cumulus across eastern CO continues to suggest that some surface-based development may occur later this afternoon, but the higher coverage is still expected north of the warm front tonight across northern NE and southern SD amid warm-air advection supported by a strengthening low-level jet. Large hail remains the primary severe risk with this elevated development, but isolated damaging gusts are possible as well, particularly if storms occur in close proximity to the warm front. ...Elsewhere... Isolated thunderstorms are still possible along the lee trough extending from the northeast CO low through the southern High Plains. Moderate instability and a deeply mixed boundary layer should support an isolated threat for strong to severe downbursts. Numerous thunderstorms are also expected to continue across the central Gulf Coast as tropical moisture continues to advect northward into the region ahead of a tropical wave. Weak shear should keep any severe potential very isolated, but a few strong water-loaded downbursts are possible. ..Mosier.. 06/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024/ ...Northern/Central Plains to the Upper Midwest/Upper Mississippi Valley... A strong upper trough/low will continue advancing east-northeastward across the northern Plains and Canadian Prairie provinces today. While the primary surface low is expected to remain in central Canada, a weak secondary low should develop generally eastward across MN through this evening in tandem with a cold front. Warm mid-level temperatures associated with a cap should tend to inhibit robust convective development for at least a few more hours into the early afternoon. But, most guidance now does show thunderstorm initiation occurring along the front in northern MN by 20-22Z. There are still concerns/uncertainty with how many intense thunderstorms will be able to form given fairly prevalent cloudiness that should temper daytime heating to some extent. Still, strong deep-layer shear and steepening mid-level lapse rates atop a gradually destabilizing low-level airmass should support a threat for supercells and large hail. Some guidance suggests a fairly quick progression to a MCS, which seems reasonable given the linear forcing of the cold front. If this occurs, then a severe/damaging wind threat may persist through the evening into parts of northern WI and the U.P. of MI. Enough low-level shear is also forecast to support low-level updraft rotation and a tornado or two across this region. A separate area of intense thunderstorm development is possible late this afternoon and early evening along the trailing portion of the cold front in NE/northwest KS and vicinity. If convection can initiate along this boundary, strong instability and modest deep-layer shear would support a threat for mainly multicells posing a risk for severe winds given the well mixed boundary layer forecast. Some hail could also occur with marginal supercell structures. The Slight Risk has been expanded southward across the central Plains to account for this scenario. Otherwise, scattered to numerous elevated thunderstorms are still expected to develop this evening and overnight generally north of the front from eastern WY into NE/SD and southern MN. A strengthening low-level jet in this time frame across these regions and ample deep-layer shear/MUCAPE will easily support supercells and a hail threat with initial development. But, convective mode may quickly become messy, with one or more bows/clusters possible as thunderstorms move eastward across the upper MS Valley overnight. Even though this activity should tend to remain elevated, an isolated severe/damaging wind threat may persist given the strong MUCAPE forecast. ...Northern Illinois/Southern Wisconsin... A well defined MCV remains evident on visible satellite and radar imagery late this morning over northeast MO and southern IA. This feature should continue to track northeastward this afternoon and evening in the modest southwesterly mid-level flow regime across the mid MS Valley/Midwest. Ample daytime heating of a moist low-level airmass should support around 1500-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE by mid afternoon across northern IL and vicinity. Ascent associated with the MCV and its associated mid-level vorticity maximum will likely encourage the development of isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms by 20-22Z. Modest but sufficient deep-layer shear for updraft organization is indicated in various RAP forecast soundings across this region. Scattered severe/damaging winds, along with isolated hail, could occur with a small bowing complex that may develop and move east-northeastward across the Chicago metro area late this afternoon and early evening. Enough low-level shear is also forecast to support a low chance for a tornado or two. Given recent guidance and observational trends, a small Slight Risk has been added across northern IL/southern WI to account for this scenario. ...Southern High Plains... Isolated/widely spaced thunderstorms should form once again this afternoon along the length of a surface lee trough/dryline extending southward across the southern High Plains. Although deep-layer shear is forecast to remain weak, moderate instability and a well-mixed boundary layer should support an isolated threat for severe downdraft winds. Occasional hail may also occur with the more robust cores before convection weakens after sunset. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms appear possible across parts of the upper Mississippi Valley late this afternoon, with additional storms likely tonight across the north-central Plains to upper Mississippi Valley. Large hail and damaging winds are the primary risks. A small bowing complex, with mainly a severe/damaging wind threat, will continue across parts of northern Illinois and vicinity this afternoon. ...20Z Update... ...Northern Illinois/Southern Wisconsin... A well-defined, compact MCV continues to move northeastward along the central/northern IA/IL border. Several strong to severe gusts were measured along the outflow associated with thunderstorm generated by this vorticity max over the past hour. Ample low-level moisture and buoyancy exists downstream across northern IL and far southern WI, which will likely support the development of additional storms along the outflow. As a result, the potential for strong to severe gusts is expected to extend into the area this afternoon, and Severe Thunderstorm Watch #424 was recently issued to address this threat. ...Northern/Central MN into northern WI/western Upper MI... A cold front continues to push eastward across western MN this afternoon. Downstream destabilization has been mitigated by abundant cloud cover thus far, but continued low-level moisture advection is still expected to help remove the remaining convective inhibition over the next few hours. As such, development along the front as it continues eastward still appears possible this afternoon. Large hail and damaging gusts are the primary risks, but a tornado or two is possible if more discrete, cellular activity is realized. ...Northern/Central Plains to the Upper Midwest/Upper MS Valley... Recent surface analysis places a low over northeast CO and another low over west-central MN. Boundary between these two lows has recently started pushing back northward/northeastward as a warm front, particularly from southwest into south-central NE. Increasing cumulus across eastern CO continues to suggest that some surface-based development may occur later this afternoon, but the higher coverage is still expected north of the warm front tonight across northern NE and southern SD amid warm-air advection supported by a strengthening low-level jet. Large hail remains the primary severe risk with this elevated development, but isolated damaging gusts are possible as well, particularly if storms occur in close proximity to the warm front. ...Elsewhere... Isolated thunderstorms are still possible along the lee trough extending from the northeast CO low through the southern High Plains. Moderate instability and a deeply mixed boundary layer should support an isolated threat for strong to severe downbursts. Numerous thunderstorms are also expected to continue across the central Gulf Coast as tropical moisture continues to advect northward into the region ahead of a tropical wave. Weak shear should keep any severe potential very isolated, but a few strong water-loaded downbursts are possible. ..Mosier.. 06/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024/ ...Northern/Central Plains to the Upper Midwest/Upper Mississippi Valley... A strong upper trough/low will continue advancing east-northeastward across the northern Plains and Canadian Prairie provinces today. While the primary surface low is expected to remain in central Canada, a weak secondary low should develop generally eastward across MN through this evening in tandem with a cold front. Warm mid-level temperatures associated with a cap should tend to inhibit robust convective development for at least a few more hours into the early afternoon. But, most guidance now does show thunderstorm initiation occurring along the front in northern MN by 20-22Z. There are still concerns/uncertainty with how many intense thunderstorms will be able to form given fairly prevalent cloudiness that should temper daytime heating to some extent. Still, strong deep-layer shear and steepening mid-level lapse rates atop a gradually destabilizing low-level airmass should support a threat for supercells and large hail. Some guidance suggests a fairly quick progression to a MCS, which seems reasonable given the linear forcing of the cold front. If this occurs, then a severe/damaging wind threat may persist through the evening into parts of northern WI and the U.P. of MI. Enough low-level shear is also forecast to support low-level updraft rotation and a tornado or two across this region. A separate area of intense thunderstorm development is possible late this afternoon and early evening along the trailing portion of the cold front in NE/northwest KS and vicinity. If convection can initiate along this boundary, strong instability and modest deep-layer shear would support a threat for mainly multicells posing a risk for severe winds given the well mixed boundary layer forecast. Some hail could also occur with marginal supercell structures. The Slight Risk has been expanded southward across the central Plains to account for this scenario. Otherwise, scattered to numerous elevated thunderstorms are still expected to develop this evening and overnight generally north of the front from eastern WY into NE/SD and southern MN. A strengthening low-level jet in this time frame across these regions and ample deep-layer shear/MUCAPE will easily support supercells and a hail threat with initial development. But, convective mode may quickly become messy, with one or more bows/clusters possible as thunderstorms move eastward across the upper MS Valley overnight. Even though this activity should tend to remain elevated, an isolated severe/damaging wind threat may persist given the strong MUCAPE forecast. ...Northern Illinois/Southern Wisconsin... A well defined MCV remains evident on visible satellite and radar imagery late this morning over northeast MO and southern IA. This feature should continue to track northeastward this afternoon and evening in the modest southwesterly mid-level flow regime across the mid MS Valley/Midwest. Ample daytime heating of a moist low-level airmass should support around 1500-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE by mid afternoon across northern IL and vicinity. Ascent associated with the MCV and its associated mid-level vorticity maximum will likely encourage the development of isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms by 20-22Z. Modest but sufficient deep-layer shear for updraft organization is indicated in various RAP forecast soundings across this region. Scattered severe/damaging winds, along with isolated hail, could occur with a small bowing complex that may develop and move east-northeastward across the Chicago metro area late this afternoon and early evening. Enough low-level shear is also forecast to support a low chance for a tornado or two. Given recent guidance and observational trends, a small Slight Risk has been added across northern IL/southern WI to account for this scenario. ...Southern High Plains... Isolated/widely spaced thunderstorms should form once again this afternoon along the length of a surface lee trough/dryline extending southward across the southern High Plains. Although deep-layer shear is forecast to remain weak, moderate instability and a well-mixed boundary layer should support an isolated threat for severe downdraft winds. Occasional hail may also occur with the more robust cores before convection weakens after sunset. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms appear possible across parts of the upper Mississippi Valley late this afternoon, with additional storms likely tonight across the north-central Plains to upper Mississippi Valley. Large hail and damaging winds are the primary risks. A small bowing complex, with mainly a severe/damaging wind threat, will continue across parts of northern Illinois and vicinity this afternoon. ...20Z Update... ...Northern Illinois/Southern Wisconsin... A well-defined, compact MCV continues to move northeastward along the central/northern IA/IL border. Several strong to severe gusts were measured along the outflow associated with thunderstorm generated by this vorticity max over the past hour. Ample low-level moisture and buoyancy exists downstream across northern IL and far southern WI, which will likely support the development of additional storms along the outflow. As a result, the potential for strong to severe gusts is expected to extend into the area this afternoon, and Severe Thunderstorm Watch #424 was recently issued to address this threat. ...Northern/Central MN into northern WI/western Upper MI... A cold front continues to push eastward across western MN this afternoon. Downstream destabilization has been mitigated by abundant cloud cover thus far, but continued low-level moisture advection is still expected to help remove the remaining convective inhibition over the next few hours. As such, development along the front as it continues eastward still appears possible this afternoon. Large hail and damaging gusts are the primary risks, but a tornado or two is possible if more discrete, cellular activity is realized. ...Northern/Central Plains to the Upper Midwest/Upper MS Valley... Recent surface analysis places a low over northeast CO and another low over west-central MN. Boundary between these two lows has recently started pushing back northward/northeastward as a warm front, particularly from southwest into south-central NE. Increasing cumulus across eastern CO continues to suggest that some surface-based development may occur later this afternoon, but the higher coverage is still expected north of the warm front tonight across northern NE and southern SD amid warm-air advection supported by a strengthening low-level jet. Large hail remains the primary severe risk with this elevated development, but isolated damaging gusts are possible as well, particularly if storms occur in close proximity to the warm front. ...Elsewhere... Isolated thunderstorms are still possible along the lee trough extending from the northeast CO low through the southern High Plains. Moderate instability and a deeply mixed boundary layer should support an isolated threat for strong to severe downbursts. Numerous thunderstorms are also expected to continue across the central Gulf Coast as tropical moisture continues to advect northward into the region ahead of a tropical wave. Weak shear should keep any severe potential very isolated, but a few strong water-loaded downbursts are possible. ..Mosier.. 06/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024/ ...Northern/Central Plains to the Upper Midwest/Upper Mississippi Valley... A strong upper trough/low will continue advancing east-northeastward across the northern Plains and Canadian Prairie provinces today. While the primary surface low is expected to remain in central Canada, a weak secondary low should develop generally eastward across MN through this evening in tandem with a cold front. Warm mid-level temperatures associated with a cap should tend to inhibit robust convective development for at least a few more hours into the early afternoon. But, most guidance now does show thunderstorm initiation occurring along the front in northern MN by 20-22Z. There are still concerns/uncertainty with how many intense thunderstorms will be able to form given fairly prevalent cloudiness that should temper daytime heating to some extent. Still, strong deep-layer shear and steepening mid-level lapse rates atop a gradually destabilizing low-level airmass should support a threat for supercells and large hail. Some guidance suggests a fairly quick progression to a MCS, which seems reasonable given the linear forcing of the cold front. If this occurs, then a severe/damaging wind threat may persist through the evening into parts of northern WI and the U.P. of MI. Enough low-level shear is also forecast to support low-level updraft rotation and a tornado or two across this region. A separate area of intense thunderstorm development is possible late this afternoon and early evening along the trailing portion of the cold front in NE/northwest KS and vicinity. If convection can initiate along this boundary, strong instability and modest deep-layer shear would support a threat for mainly multicells posing a risk for severe winds given the well mixed boundary layer forecast. Some hail could also occur with marginal supercell structures. The Slight Risk has been expanded southward across the central Plains to account for this scenario. Otherwise, scattered to numerous elevated thunderstorms are still expected to develop this evening and overnight generally north of the front from eastern WY into NE/SD and southern MN. A strengthening low-level jet in this time frame across these regions and ample deep-layer shear/MUCAPE will easily support supercells and a hail threat with initial development. But, convective mode may quickly become messy, with one or more bows/clusters possible as thunderstorms move eastward across the upper MS Valley overnight. Even though this activity should tend to remain elevated, an isolated severe/damaging wind threat may persist given the strong MUCAPE forecast. ...Northern Illinois/Southern Wisconsin... A well defined MCV remains evident on visible satellite and radar imagery late this morning over northeast MO and southern IA. This feature should continue to track northeastward this afternoon and evening in the modest southwesterly mid-level flow regime across the mid MS Valley/Midwest. Ample daytime heating of a moist low-level airmass should support around 1500-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE by mid afternoon across northern IL and vicinity. Ascent associated with the MCV and its associated mid-level vorticity maximum will likely encourage the development of isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms by 20-22Z. Modest but sufficient deep-layer shear for updraft organization is indicated in various RAP forecast soundings across this region. Scattered severe/damaging winds, along with isolated hail, could occur with a small bowing complex that may develop and move east-northeastward across the Chicago metro area late this afternoon and early evening. Enough low-level shear is also forecast to support a low chance for a tornado or two. Given recent guidance and observational trends, a small Slight Risk has been added across northern IL/southern WI to account for this scenario. ...Southern High Plains... Isolated/widely spaced thunderstorms should form once again this afternoon along the length of a surface lee trough/dryline extending southward across the southern High Plains. Although deep-layer shear is forecast to remain weak, moderate instability and a well-mixed boundary layer should support an isolated threat for severe downdraft winds. Occasional hail may also occur with the more robust cores before convection weakens after sunset. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms appear possible across parts of the upper Mississippi Valley late this afternoon, with additional storms likely tonight across the north-central Plains to upper Mississippi Valley. Large hail and damaging winds are the primary risks. A small bowing complex, with mainly a severe/damaging wind threat, will continue across parts of northern Illinois and vicinity this afternoon. ...20Z Update... ...Northern Illinois/Southern Wisconsin... A well-defined, compact MCV continues to move northeastward along the central/northern IA/IL border. Several strong to severe gusts were measured along the outflow associated with thunderstorm generated by this vorticity max over the past hour. Ample low-level moisture and buoyancy exists downstream across northern IL and far southern WI, which will likely support the development of additional storms along the outflow. As a result, the potential for strong to severe gusts is expected to extend into the area this afternoon, and Severe Thunderstorm Watch #424 was recently issued to address this threat. ...Northern/Central MN into northern WI/western Upper MI... A cold front continues to push eastward across western MN this afternoon. Downstream destabilization has been mitigated by abundant cloud cover thus far, but continued low-level moisture advection is still expected to help remove the remaining convective inhibition over the next few hours. As such, development along the front as it continues eastward still appears possible this afternoon. Large hail and damaging gusts are the primary risks, but a tornado or two is possible if more discrete, cellular activity is realized. ...Northern/Central Plains to the Upper Midwest/Upper MS Valley... Recent surface analysis places a low over northeast CO and another low over west-central MN. Boundary between these two lows has recently started pushing back northward/northeastward as a warm front, particularly from southwest into south-central NE. Increasing cumulus across eastern CO continues to suggest that some surface-based development may occur later this afternoon, but the higher coverage is still expected north of the warm front tonight across northern NE and southern SD amid warm-air advection supported by a strengthening low-level jet. Large hail remains the primary severe risk with this elevated development, but isolated damaging gusts are possible as well, particularly if storms occur in close proximity to the warm front. ...Elsewhere... Isolated thunderstorms are still possible along the lee trough extending from the northeast CO low through the southern High Plains. Moderate instability and a deeply mixed boundary layer should support an isolated threat for strong to severe downbursts. Numerous thunderstorms are also expected to continue across the central Gulf Coast as tropical moisture continues to advect northward into the region ahead of a tropical wave. Weak shear should keep any severe potential very isolated, but a few strong water-loaded downbursts are possible. ..Mosier.. 06/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024/ ...Northern/Central Plains to the Upper Midwest/Upper Mississippi Valley... A strong upper trough/low will continue advancing east-northeastward across the northern Plains and Canadian Prairie provinces today. While the primary surface low is expected to remain in central Canada, a weak secondary low should develop generally eastward across MN through this evening in tandem with a cold front. Warm mid-level temperatures associated with a cap should tend to inhibit robust convective development for at least a few more hours into the early afternoon. But, most guidance now does show thunderstorm initiation occurring along the front in northern MN by 20-22Z. There are still concerns/uncertainty with how many intense thunderstorms will be able to form given fairly prevalent cloudiness that should temper daytime heating to some extent. Still, strong deep-layer shear and steepening mid-level lapse rates atop a gradually destabilizing low-level airmass should support a threat for supercells and large hail. Some guidance suggests a fairly quick progression to a MCS, which seems reasonable given the linear forcing of the cold front. If this occurs, then a severe/damaging wind threat may persist through the evening into parts of northern WI and the U.P. of MI. Enough low-level shear is also forecast to support low-level updraft rotation and a tornado or two across this region. A separate area of intense thunderstorm development is possible late this afternoon and early evening along the trailing portion of the cold front in NE/northwest KS and vicinity. If convection can initiate along this boundary, strong instability and modest deep-layer shear would support a threat for mainly multicells posing a risk for severe winds given the well mixed boundary layer forecast. Some hail could also occur with marginal supercell structures. The Slight Risk has been expanded southward across the central Plains to account for this scenario. Otherwise, scattered to numerous elevated thunderstorms are still expected to develop this evening and overnight generally north of the front from eastern WY into NE/SD and southern MN. A strengthening low-level jet in this time frame across these regions and ample deep-layer shear/MUCAPE will easily support supercells and a hail threat with initial development. But, convective mode may quickly become messy, with one or more bows/clusters possible as thunderstorms move eastward across the upper MS Valley overnight. Even though this activity should tend to remain elevated, an isolated severe/damaging wind threat may persist given the strong MUCAPE forecast. ...Northern Illinois/Southern Wisconsin... A well defined MCV remains evident on visible satellite and radar imagery late this morning over northeast MO and southern IA. This feature should continue to track northeastward this afternoon and evening in the modest southwesterly mid-level flow regime across the mid MS Valley/Midwest. Ample daytime heating of a moist low-level airmass should support around 1500-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE by mid afternoon across northern IL and vicinity. Ascent associated with the MCV and its associated mid-level vorticity maximum will likely encourage the development of isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms by 20-22Z. Modest but sufficient deep-layer shear for updraft organization is indicated in various RAP forecast soundings across this region. Scattered severe/damaging winds, along with isolated hail, could occur with a small bowing complex that may develop and move east-northeastward across the Chicago metro area late this afternoon and early evening. Enough low-level shear is also forecast to support a low chance for a tornado or two. Given recent guidance and observational trends, a small Slight Risk has been added across northern IL/southern WI to account for this scenario. ...Southern High Plains... Isolated/widely spaced thunderstorms should form once again this afternoon along the length of a surface lee trough/dryline extending southward across the southern High Plains. Although deep-layer shear is forecast to remain weak, moderate instability and a well-mixed boundary layer should support an isolated threat for severe downdraft winds. Occasional hail may also occur with the more robust cores before convection weakens after sunset. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms appear possible across parts of the upper Mississippi Valley late this afternoon, with additional storms likely tonight across the north-central Plains to upper Mississippi Valley. Large hail and damaging winds are the primary risks. A small bowing complex, with mainly a severe/damaging wind threat, will continue across parts of northern Illinois and vicinity this afternoon. ...20Z Update... ...Northern Illinois/Southern Wisconsin... A well-defined, compact MCV continues to move northeastward along the central/northern IA/IL border. Several strong to severe gusts were measured along the outflow associated with thunderstorm generated by this vorticity max over the past hour. Ample low-level moisture and buoyancy exists downstream across northern IL and far southern WI, which will likely support the development of additional storms along the outflow. As a result, the potential for strong to severe gusts is expected to extend into the area this afternoon, and Severe Thunderstorm Watch #424 was recently issued to address this threat. ...Northern/Central MN into northern WI/western Upper MI... A cold front continues to push eastward across western MN this afternoon. Downstream destabilization has been mitigated by abundant cloud cover thus far, but continued low-level moisture advection is still expected to help remove the remaining convective inhibition over the next few hours. As such, development along the front as it continues eastward still appears possible this afternoon. Large hail and damaging gusts are the primary risks, but a tornado or two is possible if more discrete, cellular activity is realized. ...Northern/Central Plains to the Upper Midwest/Upper MS Valley... Recent surface analysis places a low over northeast CO and another low over west-central MN. Boundary between these two lows has recently started pushing back northward/northeastward as a warm front, particularly from southwest into south-central NE. Increasing cumulus across eastern CO continues to suggest that some surface-based development may occur later this afternoon, but the higher coverage is still expected north of the warm front tonight across northern NE and southern SD amid warm-air advection supported by a strengthening low-level jet. Large hail remains the primary severe risk with this elevated development, but isolated damaging gusts are possible as well, particularly if storms occur in close proximity to the warm front. ...Elsewhere... Isolated thunderstorms are still possible along the lee trough extending from the northeast CO low through the southern High Plains. Moderate instability and a deeply mixed boundary layer should support an isolated threat for strong to severe downbursts. Numerous thunderstorms are also expected to continue across the central Gulf Coast as tropical moisture continues to advect northward into the region ahead of a tropical wave. Weak shear should keep any severe potential very isolated, but a few strong water-loaded downbursts are possible. ..Mosier.. 06/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024/ ...Northern/Central Plains to the Upper Midwest/Upper Mississippi Valley... A strong upper trough/low will continue advancing east-northeastward across the northern Plains and Canadian Prairie provinces today. While the primary surface low is expected to remain in central Canada, a weak secondary low should develop generally eastward across MN through this evening in tandem with a cold front. Warm mid-level temperatures associated with a cap should tend to inhibit robust convective development for at least a few more hours into the early afternoon. But, most guidance now does show thunderstorm initiation occurring along the front in northern MN by 20-22Z. There are still concerns/uncertainty with how many intense thunderstorms will be able to form given fairly prevalent cloudiness that should temper daytime heating to some extent. Still, strong deep-layer shear and steepening mid-level lapse rates atop a gradually destabilizing low-level airmass should support a threat for supercells and large hail. Some guidance suggests a fairly quick progression to a MCS, which seems reasonable given the linear forcing of the cold front. If this occurs, then a severe/damaging wind threat may persist through the evening into parts of northern WI and the U.P. of MI. Enough low-level shear is also forecast to support low-level updraft rotation and a tornado or two across this region. A separate area of intense thunderstorm development is possible late this afternoon and early evening along the trailing portion of the cold front in NE/northwest KS and vicinity. If convection can initiate along this boundary, strong instability and modest deep-layer shear would support a threat for mainly multicells posing a risk for severe winds given the well mixed boundary layer forecast. Some hail could also occur with marginal supercell structures. The Slight Risk has been expanded southward across the central Plains to account for this scenario. Otherwise, scattered to numerous elevated thunderstorms are still expected to develop this evening and overnight generally north of the front from eastern WY into NE/SD and southern MN. A strengthening low-level jet in this time frame across these regions and ample deep-layer shear/MUCAPE will easily support supercells and a hail threat with initial development. But, convective mode may quickly become messy, with one or more bows/clusters possible as thunderstorms move eastward across the upper MS Valley overnight. Even though this activity should tend to remain elevated, an isolated severe/damaging wind threat may persist given the strong MUCAPE forecast. ...Northern Illinois/Southern Wisconsin... A well defined MCV remains evident on visible satellite and radar imagery late this morning over northeast MO and southern IA. This feature should continue to track northeastward this afternoon and evening in the modest southwesterly mid-level flow regime across the mid MS Valley/Midwest. Ample daytime heating of a moist low-level airmass should support around 1500-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE by mid afternoon across northern IL and vicinity. Ascent associated with the MCV and its associated mid-level vorticity maximum will likely encourage the development of isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms by 20-22Z. Modest but sufficient deep-layer shear for updraft organization is indicated in various RAP forecast soundings across this region. Scattered severe/damaging winds, along with isolated hail, could occur with a small bowing complex that may develop and move east-northeastward across the Chicago metro area late this afternoon and early evening. Enough low-level shear is also forecast to support a low chance for a tornado or two. Given recent guidance and observational trends, a small Slight Risk has been added across northern IL/southern WI to account for this scenario. ...Southern High Plains... Isolated/widely spaced thunderstorms should form once again this afternoon along the length of a surface lee trough/dryline extending southward across the southern High Plains. Although deep-layer shear is forecast to remain weak, moderate instability and a well-mixed boundary layer should support an isolated threat for severe downdraft winds. Occasional hail may also occur with the more robust cores before convection weakens after sunset. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms appear possible across parts of the upper Mississippi Valley late this afternoon, with additional storms likely tonight across the north-central Plains to upper Mississippi Valley. Large hail and damaging winds are the primary risks. A small bowing complex, with mainly a severe/damaging wind threat, will continue across parts of northern Illinois and vicinity this afternoon. ...20Z Update... ...Northern Illinois/Southern Wisconsin... A well-defined, compact MCV continues to move northeastward along the central/northern IA/IL border. Several strong to severe gusts were measured along the outflow associated with thunderstorm generated by this vorticity max over the past hour. Ample low-level moisture and buoyancy exists downstream across northern IL and far southern WI, which will likely support the development of additional storms along the outflow. As a result, the potential for strong to severe gusts is expected to extend into the area this afternoon, and Severe Thunderstorm Watch #424 was recently issued to address this threat. ...Northern/Central MN into northern WI/western Upper MI... A cold front continues to push eastward across western MN this afternoon. Downstream destabilization has been mitigated by abundant cloud cover thus far, but continued low-level moisture advection is still expected to help remove the remaining convective inhibition over the next few hours. As such, development along the front as it continues eastward still appears possible this afternoon. Large hail and damaging gusts are the primary risks, but a tornado or two is possible if more discrete, cellular activity is realized. ...Northern/Central Plains to the Upper Midwest/Upper MS Valley... Recent surface analysis places a low over northeast CO and another low over west-central MN. Boundary between these two lows has recently started pushing back northward/northeastward as a warm front, particularly from southwest into south-central NE. Increasing cumulus across eastern CO continues to suggest that some surface-based development may occur later this afternoon, but the higher coverage is still expected north of the warm front tonight across northern NE and southern SD amid warm-air advection supported by a strengthening low-level jet. Large hail remains the primary severe risk with this elevated development, but isolated damaging gusts are possible as well, particularly if storms occur in close proximity to the warm front. ...Elsewhere... Isolated thunderstorms are still possible along the lee trough extending from the northeast CO low through the southern High Plains. Moderate instability and a deeply mixed boundary layer should support an isolated threat for strong to severe downbursts. Numerous thunderstorms are also expected to continue across the central Gulf Coast as tropical moisture continues to advect northward into the region ahead of a tropical wave. Weak shear should keep any severe potential very isolated, but a few strong water-loaded downbursts are possible. ..Mosier.. 06/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024/ ...Northern/Central Plains to the Upper Midwest/Upper Mississippi Valley... A strong upper trough/low will continue advancing east-northeastward across the northern Plains and Canadian Prairie provinces today. While the primary surface low is expected to remain in central Canada, a weak secondary low should develop generally eastward across MN through this evening in tandem with a cold front. Warm mid-level temperatures associated with a cap should tend to inhibit robust convective development for at least a few more hours into the early afternoon. But, most guidance now does show thunderstorm initiation occurring along the front in northern MN by 20-22Z. There are still concerns/uncertainty with how many intense thunderstorms will be able to form given fairly prevalent cloudiness that should temper daytime heating to some extent. Still, strong deep-layer shear and steepening mid-level lapse rates atop a gradually destabilizing low-level airmass should support a threat for supercells and large hail. Some guidance suggests a fairly quick progression to a MCS, which seems reasonable given the linear forcing of the cold front. If this occurs, then a severe/damaging wind threat may persist through the evening into parts of northern WI and the U.P. of MI. Enough low-level shear is also forecast to support low-level updraft rotation and a tornado or two across this region. A separate area of intense thunderstorm development is possible late this afternoon and early evening along the trailing portion of the cold front in NE/northwest KS and vicinity. If convection can initiate along this boundary, strong instability and modest deep-layer shear would support a threat for mainly multicells posing a risk for severe winds given the well mixed boundary layer forecast. Some hail could also occur with marginal supercell structures. The Slight Risk has been expanded southward across the central Plains to account for this scenario. Otherwise, scattered to numerous elevated thunderstorms are still expected to develop this evening and overnight generally north of the front from eastern WY into NE/SD and southern MN. A strengthening low-level jet in this time frame across these regions and ample deep-layer shear/MUCAPE will easily support supercells and a hail threat with initial development. But, convective mode may quickly become messy, with one or more bows/clusters possible as thunderstorms move eastward across the upper MS Valley overnight. Even though this activity should tend to remain elevated, an isolated severe/damaging wind threat may persist given the strong MUCAPE forecast. ...Northern Illinois/Southern Wisconsin... A well defined MCV remains evident on visible satellite and radar imagery late this morning over northeast MO and southern IA. This feature should continue to track northeastward this afternoon and evening in the modest southwesterly mid-level flow regime across the mid MS Valley/Midwest. Ample daytime heating of a moist low-level airmass should support around 1500-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE by mid afternoon across northern IL and vicinity. Ascent associated with the MCV and its associated mid-level vorticity maximum will likely encourage the development of isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms by 20-22Z. Modest but sufficient deep-layer shear for updraft organization is indicated in various RAP forecast soundings across this region. Scattered severe/damaging winds, along with isolated hail, could occur with a small bowing complex that may develop and move east-northeastward across the Chicago metro area late this afternoon and early evening. Enough low-level shear is also forecast to support a low chance for a tornado or two. Given recent guidance and observational trends, a small Slight Risk has been added across northern IL/southern WI to account for this scenario. ...Southern High Plains... Isolated/widely spaced thunderstorms should form once again this afternoon along the length of a surface lee trough/dryline extending southward across the southern High Plains. Although deep-layer shear is forecast to remain weak, moderate instability and a well-mixed boundary layer should support an isolated threat for severe downdraft winds. Occasional hail may also occur with the more robust cores before convection weakens after sunset. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms appear possible across parts of the upper Mississippi Valley late this afternoon, with additional storms likely tonight across the north-central Plains to upper Mississippi Valley. Large hail and damaging winds are the primary risks. A small bowing complex, with mainly a severe/damaging wind threat, will continue across parts of northern Illinois and vicinity this afternoon. ...20Z Update... ...Northern Illinois/Southern Wisconsin... A well-defined, compact MCV continues to move northeastward along the central/northern IA/IL border. Several strong to severe gusts were measured along the outflow associated with thunderstorm generated by this vorticity max over the past hour. Ample low-level moisture and buoyancy exists downstream across northern IL and far southern WI, which will likely support the development of additional storms along the outflow. As a result, the potential for strong to severe gusts is expected to extend into the area this afternoon, and Severe Thunderstorm Watch #424 was recently issued to address this threat. ...Northern/Central MN into northern WI/western Upper MI... A cold front continues to push eastward across western MN this afternoon. Downstream destabilization has been mitigated by abundant cloud cover thus far, but continued low-level moisture advection is still expected to help remove the remaining convective inhibition over the next few hours. As such, development along the front as it continues eastward still appears possible this afternoon. Large hail and damaging gusts are the primary risks, but a tornado or two is possible if more discrete, cellular activity is realized. ...Northern/Central Plains to the Upper Midwest/Upper MS Valley... Recent surface analysis places a low over northeast CO and another low over west-central MN. Boundary between these two lows has recently started pushing back northward/northeastward as a warm front, particularly from southwest into south-central NE. Increasing cumulus across eastern CO continues to suggest that some surface-based development may occur later this afternoon, but the higher coverage is still expected north of the warm front tonight across northern NE and southern SD amid warm-air advection supported by a strengthening low-level jet. Large hail remains the primary severe risk with this elevated development, but isolated damaging gusts are possible as well, particularly if storms occur in close proximity to the warm front. ...Elsewhere... Isolated thunderstorms are still possible along the lee trough extending from the northeast CO low through the southern High Plains. Moderate instability and a deeply mixed boundary layer should support an isolated threat for strong to severe downbursts. Numerous thunderstorms are also expected to continue across the central Gulf Coast as tropical moisture continues to advect northward into the region ahead of a tropical wave. Weak shear should keep any severe potential very isolated, but a few strong water-loaded downbursts are possible. ..Mosier.. 06/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024/ ...Northern/Central Plains to the Upper Midwest/Upper Mississippi Valley... A strong upper trough/low will continue advancing east-northeastward across the northern Plains and Canadian Prairie provinces today. While the primary surface low is expected to remain in central Canada, a weak secondary low should develop generally eastward across MN through this evening in tandem with a cold front. Warm mid-level temperatures associated with a cap should tend to inhibit robust convective development for at least a few more hours into the early afternoon. But, most guidance now does show thunderstorm initiation occurring along the front in northern MN by 20-22Z. There are still concerns/uncertainty with how many intense thunderstorms will be able to form given fairly prevalent cloudiness that should temper daytime heating to some extent. Still, strong deep-layer shear and steepening mid-level lapse rates atop a gradually destabilizing low-level airmass should support a threat for supercells and large hail. Some guidance suggests a fairly quick progression to a MCS, which seems reasonable given the linear forcing of the cold front. If this occurs, then a severe/damaging wind threat may persist through the evening into parts of northern WI and the U.P. of MI. Enough low-level shear is also forecast to support low-level updraft rotation and a tornado or two across this region. A separate area of intense thunderstorm development is possible late this afternoon and early evening along the trailing portion of the cold front in NE/northwest KS and vicinity. If convection can initiate along this boundary, strong instability and modest deep-layer shear would support a threat for mainly multicells posing a risk for severe winds given the well mixed boundary layer forecast. Some hail could also occur with marginal supercell structures. The Slight Risk has been expanded southward across the central Plains to account for this scenario. Otherwise, scattered to numerous elevated thunderstorms are still expected to develop this evening and overnight generally north of the front from eastern WY into NE/SD and southern MN. A strengthening low-level jet in this time frame across these regions and ample deep-layer shear/MUCAPE will easily support supercells and a hail threat with initial development. But, convective mode may quickly become messy, with one or more bows/clusters possible as thunderstorms move eastward across the upper MS Valley overnight. Even though this activity should tend to remain elevated, an isolated severe/damaging wind threat may persist given the strong MUCAPE forecast. ...Northern Illinois/Southern Wisconsin... A well defined MCV remains evident on visible satellite and radar imagery late this morning over northeast MO and southern IA. This feature should continue to track northeastward this afternoon and evening in the modest southwesterly mid-level flow regime across the mid MS Valley/Midwest. Ample daytime heating of a moist low-level airmass should support around 1500-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE by mid afternoon across northern IL and vicinity. Ascent associated with the MCV and its associated mid-level vorticity maximum will likely encourage the development of isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms by 20-22Z. Modest but sufficient deep-layer shear for updraft organization is indicated in various RAP forecast soundings across this region. Scattered severe/damaging winds, along with isolated hail, could occur with a small bowing complex that may develop and move east-northeastward across the Chicago metro area late this afternoon and early evening. Enough low-level shear is also forecast to support a low chance for a tornado or two. Given recent guidance and observational trends, a small Slight Risk has been added across northern IL/southern WI to account for this scenario. ...Southern High Plains... Isolated/widely spaced thunderstorms should form once again this afternoon along the length of a surface lee trough/dryline extending southward across the southern High Plains. Although deep-layer shear is forecast to remain weak, moderate instability and a well-mixed boundary layer should support an isolated threat for severe downdraft winds. Occasional hail may also occur with the more robust cores before convection weakens after sunset. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms appear possible across parts of the upper Mississippi Valley late this afternoon, with additional storms likely tonight across the north-central Plains to upper Mississippi Valley. Large hail and damaging winds are the primary risks. A small bowing complex, with mainly a severe/damaging wind threat, will continue across parts of northern Illinois and vicinity this afternoon. ...20Z Update... ...Northern Illinois/Southern Wisconsin... A well-defined, compact MCV continues to move northeastward along the central/northern IA/IL border. Several strong to severe gusts were measured along the outflow associated with thunderstorm generated by this vorticity max over the past hour. Ample low-level moisture and buoyancy exists downstream across northern IL and far southern WI, which will likely support the development of additional storms along the outflow. As a result, the potential for strong to severe gusts is expected to extend into the area this afternoon, and Severe Thunderstorm Watch #424 was recently issued to address this threat. ...Northern/Central MN into northern WI/western Upper MI... A cold front continues to push eastward across western MN this afternoon. Downstream destabilization has been mitigated by abundant cloud cover thus far, but continued low-level moisture advection is still expected to help remove the remaining convective inhibition over the next few hours. As such, development along the front as it continues eastward still appears possible this afternoon. Large hail and damaging gusts are the primary risks, but a tornado or two is possible if more discrete, cellular activity is realized. ...Northern/Central Plains to the Upper Midwest/Upper MS Valley... Recent surface analysis places a low over northeast CO and another low over west-central MN. Boundary between these two lows has recently started pushing back northward/northeastward as a warm front, particularly from southwest into south-central NE. Increasing cumulus across eastern CO continues to suggest that some surface-based development may occur later this afternoon, but the higher coverage is still expected north of the warm front tonight across northern NE and southern SD amid warm-air advection supported by a strengthening low-level jet. Large hail remains the primary severe risk with this elevated development, but isolated damaging gusts are possible as well, particularly if storms occur in close proximity to the warm front. ...Elsewhere... Isolated thunderstorms are still possible along the lee trough extending from the northeast CO low through the southern High Plains. Moderate instability and a deeply mixed boundary layer should support an isolated threat for strong to severe downbursts. Numerous thunderstorms are also expected to continue across the central Gulf Coast as tropical moisture continues to advect northward into the region ahead of a tropical wave. Weak shear should keep any severe potential very isolated, but a few strong water-loaded downbursts are possible. ..Mosier.. 06/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024/ ...Northern/Central Plains to the Upper Midwest/Upper Mississippi Valley... A strong upper trough/low will continue advancing east-northeastward across the northern Plains and Canadian Prairie provinces today. While the primary surface low is expected to remain in central Canada, a weak secondary low should develop generally eastward across MN through this evening in tandem with a cold front. Warm mid-level temperatures associated with a cap should tend to inhibit robust convective development for at least a few more hours into the early afternoon. But, most guidance now does show thunderstorm initiation occurring along the front in northern MN by 20-22Z. There are still concerns/uncertainty with how many intense thunderstorms will be able to form given fairly prevalent cloudiness that should temper daytime heating to some extent. Still, strong deep-layer shear and steepening mid-level lapse rates atop a gradually destabilizing low-level airmass should support a threat for supercells and large hail. Some guidance suggests a fairly quick progression to a MCS, which seems reasonable given the linear forcing of the cold front. If this occurs, then a severe/damaging wind threat may persist through the evening into parts of northern WI and the U.P. of MI. Enough low-level shear is also forecast to support low-level updraft rotation and a tornado or two across this region. A separate area of intense thunderstorm development is possible late this afternoon and early evening along the trailing portion of the cold front in NE/northwest KS and vicinity. If convection can initiate along this boundary, strong instability and modest deep-layer shear would support a threat for mainly multicells posing a risk for severe winds given the well mixed boundary layer forecast. Some hail could also occur with marginal supercell structures. The Slight Risk has been expanded southward across the central Plains to account for this scenario. Otherwise, scattered to numerous elevated thunderstorms are still expected to develop this evening and overnight generally north of the front from eastern WY into NE/SD and southern MN. A strengthening low-level jet in this time frame across these regions and ample deep-layer shear/MUCAPE will easily support supercells and a hail threat with initial development. But, convective mode may quickly become messy, with one or more bows/clusters possible as thunderstorms move eastward across the upper MS Valley overnight. Even though this activity should tend to remain elevated, an isolated severe/damaging wind threat may persist given the strong MUCAPE forecast. ...Northern Illinois/Southern Wisconsin... A well defined MCV remains evident on visible satellite and radar imagery late this morning over northeast MO and southern IA. This feature should continue to track northeastward this afternoon and evening in the modest southwesterly mid-level flow regime across the mid MS Valley/Midwest. Ample daytime heating of a moist low-level airmass should support around 1500-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE by mid afternoon across northern IL and vicinity. Ascent associated with the MCV and its associated mid-level vorticity maximum will likely encourage the development of isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms by 20-22Z. Modest but sufficient deep-layer shear for updraft organization is indicated in various RAP forecast soundings across this region. Scattered severe/damaging winds, along with isolated hail, could occur with a small bowing complex that may develop and move east-northeastward across the Chicago metro area late this afternoon and early evening. Enough low-level shear is also forecast to support a low chance for a tornado or two. Given recent guidance and observational trends, a small Slight Risk has been added across northern IL/southern WI to account for this scenario. ...Southern High Plains... Isolated/widely spaced thunderstorms should form once again this afternoon along the length of a surface lee trough/dryline extending southward across the southern High Plains. Although deep-layer shear is forecast to remain weak, moderate instability and a well-mixed boundary layer should support an isolated threat for severe downdraft winds. Occasional hail may also occur with the more robust cores before convection weakens after sunset. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms appear possible across parts of the upper Mississippi Valley late this afternoon, with additional storms likely tonight across the north-central Plains to upper Mississippi Valley. Large hail and damaging winds are the primary risks. A small bowing complex, with mainly a severe/damaging wind threat, will continue across parts of northern Illinois and vicinity this afternoon. ...20Z Update... ...Northern Illinois/Southern Wisconsin... A well-defined, compact MCV continues to move northeastward along the central/northern IA/IL border. Several strong to severe gusts were measured along the outflow associated with thunderstorm generated by this vorticity max over the past hour. Ample low-level moisture and buoyancy exists downstream across northern IL and far southern WI, which will likely support the development of additional storms along the outflow. As a result, the potential for strong to severe gusts is expected to extend into the area this afternoon, and Severe Thunderstorm Watch #424 was recently issued to address this threat. ...Northern/Central MN into northern WI/western Upper MI... A cold front continues to push eastward across western MN this afternoon. Downstream destabilization has been mitigated by abundant cloud cover thus far, but continued low-level moisture advection is still expected to help remove the remaining convective inhibition over the next few hours. As such, development along the front as it continues eastward still appears possible this afternoon. Large hail and damaging gusts are the primary risks, but a tornado or two is possible if more discrete, cellular activity is realized. ...Northern/Central Plains to the Upper Midwest/Upper MS Valley... Recent surface analysis places a low over northeast CO and another low over west-central MN. Boundary between these two lows has recently started pushing back northward/northeastward as a warm front, particularly from southwest into south-central NE. Increasing cumulus across eastern CO continues to suggest that some surface-based development may occur later this afternoon, but the higher coverage is still expected north of the warm front tonight across northern NE and southern SD amid warm-air advection supported by a strengthening low-level jet. Large hail remains the primary severe risk with this elevated development, but isolated damaging gusts are possible as well, particularly if storms occur in close proximity to the warm front. ...Elsewhere... Isolated thunderstorms are still possible along the lee trough extending from the northeast CO low through the southern High Plains. Moderate instability and a deeply mixed boundary layer should support an isolated threat for strong to severe downbursts. Numerous thunderstorms are also expected to continue across the central Gulf Coast as tropical moisture continues to advect northward into the region ahead of a tropical wave. Weak shear should keep any severe potential very isolated, but a few strong water-loaded downbursts are possible. ..Mosier.. 06/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024/ ...Northern/Central Plains to the Upper Midwest/Upper Mississippi Valley... A strong upper trough/low will continue advancing east-northeastward across the northern Plains and Canadian Prairie provinces today. While the primary surface low is expected to remain in central Canada, a weak secondary low should develop generally eastward across MN through this evening in tandem with a cold front. Warm mid-level temperatures associated with a cap should tend to inhibit robust convective development for at least a few more hours into the early afternoon. But, most guidance now does show thunderstorm initiation occurring along the front in northern MN by 20-22Z. There are still concerns/uncertainty with how many intense thunderstorms will be able to form given fairly prevalent cloudiness that should temper daytime heating to some extent. Still, strong deep-layer shear and steepening mid-level lapse rates atop a gradually destabilizing low-level airmass should support a threat for supercells and large hail. Some guidance suggests a fairly quick progression to a MCS, which seems reasonable given the linear forcing of the cold front. If this occurs, then a severe/damaging wind threat may persist through the evening into parts of northern WI and the U.P. of MI. Enough low-level shear is also forecast to support low-level updraft rotation and a tornado or two across this region. A separate area of intense thunderstorm development is possible late this afternoon and early evening along the trailing portion of the cold front in NE/northwest KS and vicinity. If convection can initiate along this boundary, strong instability and modest deep-layer shear would support a threat for mainly multicells posing a risk for severe winds given the well mixed boundary layer forecast. Some hail could also occur with marginal supercell structures. The Slight Risk has been expanded southward across the central Plains to account for this scenario. Otherwise, scattered to numerous elevated thunderstorms are still expected to develop this evening and overnight generally north of the front from eastern WY into NE/SD and southern MN. A strengthening low-level jet in this time frame across these regions and ample deep-layer shear/MUCAPE will easily support supercells and a hail threat with initial development. But, convective mode may quickly become messy, with one or more bows/clusters possible as thunderstorms move eastward across the upper MS Valley overnight. Even though this activity should tend to remain elevated, an isolated severe/damaging wind threat may persist given the strong MUCAPE forecast. ...Northern Illinois/Southern Wisconsin... A well defined MCV remains evident on visible satellite and radar imagery late this morning over northeast MO and southern IA. This feature should continue to track northeastward this afternoon and evening in the modest southwesterly mid-level flow regime across the mid MS Valley/Midwest. Ample daytime heating of a moist low-level airmass should support around 1500-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE by mid afternoon across northern IL and vicinity. Ascent associated with the MCV and its associated mid-level vorticity maximum will likely encourage the development of isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms by 20-22Z. Modest but sufficient deep-layer shear for updraft organization is indicated in various RAP forecast soundings across this region. Scattered severe/damaging winds, along with isolated hail, could occur with a small bowing complex that may develop and move east-northeastward across the Chicago metro area late this afternoon and early evening. Enough low-level shear is also forecast to support a low chance for a tornado or two. Given recent guidance and observational trends, a small Slight Risk has been added across northern IL/southern WI to account for this scenario. ...Southern High Plains... Isolated/widely spaced thunderstorms should form once again this afternoon along the length of a surface lee trough/dryline extending southward across the southern High Plains. Although deep-layer shear is forecast to remain weak, moderate instability and a well-mixed boundary layer should support an isolated threat for severe downdraft winds. Occasional hail may also occur with the more robust cores before convection weakens after sunset. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms appear possible across parts of the upper Mississippi Valley late this afternoon, with additional storms likely tonight across the north-central Plains to upper Mississippi Valley. Large hail and damaging winds are the primary risks. A small bowing complex, with mainly a severe/damaging wind threat, will continue across parts of northern Illinois and vicinity this afternoon. ...20Z Update... ...Northern Illinois/Southern Wisconsin... A well-defined, compact MCV continues to move northeastward along the central/northern IA/IL border. Several strong to severe gusts were measured along the outflow associated with thunderstorm generated by this vorticity max over the past hour. Ample low-level moisture and buoyancy exists downstream across northern IL and far southern WI, which will likely support the development of additional storms along the outflow. As a result, the potential for strong to severe gusts is expected to extend into the area this afternoon, and Severe Thunderstorm Watch #424 was recently issued to address this threat. ...Northern/Central MN into northern WI/western Upper MI... A cold front continues to push eastward across western MN this afternoon. Downstream destabilization has been mitigated by abundant cloud cover thus far, but continued low-level moisture advection is still expected to help remove the remaining convective inhibition over the next few hours. As such, development along the front as it continues eastward still appears possible this afternoon. Large hail and damaging gusts are the primary risks, but a tornado or two is possible if more discrete, cellular activity is realized. ...Northern/Central Plains to the Upper Midwest/Upper MS Valley... Recent surface analysis places a low over northeast CO and another low over west-central MN. Boundary between these two lows has recently started pushing back northward/northeastward as a warm front, particularly from southwest into south-central NE. Increasing cumulus across eastern CO continues to suggest that some surface-based development may occur later this afternoon, but the higher coverage is still expected north of the warm front tonight across northern NE and southern SD amid warm-air advection supported by a strengthening low-level jet. Large hail remains the primary severe risk with this elevated development, but isolated damaging gusts are possible as well, particularly if storms occur in close proximity to the warm front. ...Elsewhere... Isolated thunderstorms are still possible along the lee trough extending from the northeast CO low through the southern High Plains. Moderate instability and a deeply mixed boundary layer should support an isolated threat for strong to severe downbursts. Numerous thunderstorms are also expected to continue across the central Gulf Coast as tropical moisture continues to advect northward into the region ahead of a tropical wave. Weak shear should keep any severe potential very isolated, but a few strong water-loaded downbursts are possible. ..Mosier.. 06/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024/ ...Northern/Central Plains to the Upper Midwest/Upper Mississippi Valley... A strong upper trough/low will continue advancing east-northeastward across the northern Plains and Canadian Prairie provinces today. While the primary surface low is expected to remain in central Canada, a weak secondary low should develop generally eastward across MN through this evening in tandem with a cold front. Warm mid-level temperatures associated with a cap should tend to inhibit robust convective development for at least a few more hours into the early afternoon. But, most guidance now does show thunderstorm initiation occurring along the front in northern MN by 20-22Z. There are still concerns/uncertainty with how many intense thunderstorms will be able to form given fairly prevalent cloudiness that should temper daytime heating to some extent. Still, strong deep-layer shear and steepening mid-level lapse rates atop a gradually destabilizing low-level airmass should support a threat for supercells and large hail. Some guidance suggests a fairly quick progression to a MCS, which seems reasonable given the linear forcing of the cold front. If this occurs, then a severe/damaging wind threat may persist through the evening into parts of northern WI and the U.P. of MI. Enough low-level shear is also forecast to support low-level updraft rotation and a tornado or two across this region. A separate area of intense thunderstorm development is possible late this afternoon and early evening along the trailing portion of the cold front in NE/northwest KS and vicinity. If convection can initiate along this boundary, strong instability and modest deep-layer shear would support a threat for mainly multicells posing a risk for severe winds given the well mixed boundary layer forecast. Some hail could also occur with marginal supercell structures. The Slight Risk has been expanded southward across the central Plains to account for this scenario. Otherwise, scattered to numerous elevated thunderstorms are still expected to develop this evening and overnight generally north of the front from eastern WY into NE/SD and southern MN. A strengthening low-level jet in this time frame across these regions and ample deep-layer shear/MUCAPE will easily support supercells and a hail threat with initial development. But, convective mode may quickly become messy, with one or more bows/clusters possible as thunderstorms move eastward across the upper MS Valley overnight. Even though this activity should tend to remain elevated, an isolated severe/damaging wind threat may persist given the strong MUCAPE forecast. ...Northern Illinois/Southern Wisconsin... A well defined MCV remains evident on visible satellite and radar imagery late this morning over northeast MO and southern IA. This feature should continue to track northeastward this afternoon and evening in the modest southwesterly mid-level flow regime across the mid MS Valley/Midwest. Ample daytime heating of a moist low-level airmass should support around 1500-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE by mid afternoon across northern IL and vicinity. Ascent associated with the MCV and its associated mid-level vorticity maximum will likely encourage the development of isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms by 20-22Z. Modest but sufficient deep-layer shear for updraft organization is indicated in various RAP forecast soundings across this region. Scattered severe/damaging winds, along with isolated hail, could occur with a small bowing complex that may develop and move east-northeastward across the Chicago metro area late this afternoon and early evening. Enough low-level shear is also forecast to support a low chance for a tornado or two. Given recent guidance and observational trends, a small Slight Risk has been added across northern IL/southern WI to account for this scenario. ...Southern High Plains... Isolated/widely spaced thunderstorms should form once again this afternoon along the length of a surface lee trough/dryline extending southward across the southern High Plains. Although deep-layer shear is forecast to remain weak, moderate instability and a well-mixed boundary layer should support an isolated threat for severe downdraft winds. Occasional hail may also occur with the more robust cores before convection weakens after sunset. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN UTAH...NORTHERN ARIZONA...WESTERN NEW MEXICO...AND FAR SOUTHWEST COLORADO... The Elevated risk area in central California has been expanded southward to cover most of the San Joaquin Valley along with adjacent areas of the western Transverse Ranges and the southern Sierra Nevada. Fuels in the area have rapidly dried. Additionally, the ongoing Post Fire has been displaying rapid growth in the presence of strong winds (gusts of 40-50 mph with higher gusts in mountain gaps) despite somewhat marginal RH for the area (15-25% minimums). All of this highlights the potential for further fire activity in the region. Otherwise, the Critical area has been expanded in southern Utah and northern Arizona with better confidence in Critical fire weather conditions overlapping areas of dry fuels. See the previous discussion for further details. ..Supinie.. 06/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0155 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024/ ...Synopsis... A secondary shortwave will rotate through the western US trough on Monday, bringing continued strong southwesterly flow across much of the desert southwest into the southern High Plains. Across northeastern Arizona, southeastern Utah, and portions of western New Mexico, afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap sustained winds around 20 mph. Fuels in this region are critically dry, supporting maintaining a Critical delineation across these regions on Monday. Broader Elevated fire weather concerns are expected across much of Arizona into southern/central Utah, eastern Nevada, and into western New Mexico and southern Colorado. Elevated fire weather concerns are also expected as strong northwesterly flow at 10-15 mph on the backside of the trough overlaps relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent (locally around 10 percent) within the Sacramento Valley and San Joaquin Valley in northern/central California. Fuels within this region are sufficiently dry to support Elevated fire weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN UTAH...NORTHERN ARIZONA...WESTERN NEW MEXICO...AND FAR SOUTHWEST COLORADO... The Elevated risk area in central California has been expanded southward to cover most of the San Joaquin Valley along with adjacent areas of the western Transverse Ranges and the southern Sierra Nevada. Fuels in the area have rapidly dried. Additionally, the ongoing Post Fire has been displaying rapid growth in the presence of strong winds (gusts of 40-50 mph with higher gusts in mountain gaps) despite somewhat marginal RH for the area (15-25% minimums). All of this highlights the potential for further fire activity in the region. Otherwise, the Critical area has been expanded in southern Utah and northern Arizona with better confidence in Critical fire weather conditions overlapping areas of dry fuels. See the previous discussion for further details. ..Supinie.. 06/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0155 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024/ ...Synopsis... A secondary shortwave will rotate through the western US trough on Monday, bringing continued strong southwesterly flow across much of the desert southwest into the southern High Plains. Across northeastern Arizona, southeastern Utah, and portions of western New Mexico, afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap sustained winds around 20 mph. Fuels in this region are critically dry, supporting maintaining a Critical delineation across these regions on Monday. Broader Elevated fire weather concerns are expected across much of Arizona into southern/central Utah, eastern Nevada, and into western New Mexico and southern Colorado. Elevated fire weather concerns are also expected as strong northwesterly flow at 10-15 mph on the backside of the trough overlaps relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent (locally around 10 percent) within the Sacramento Valley and San Joaquin Valley in northern/central California. Fuels within this region are sufficiently dry to support Elevated fire weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN UTAH...NORTHERN ARIZONA...WESTERN NEW MEXICO...AND FAR SOUTHWEST COLORADO... The Elevated risk area in central California has been expanded southward to cover most of the San Joaquin Valley along with adjacent areas of the western Transverse Ranges and the southern Sierra Nevada. Fuels in the area have rapidly dried. Additionally, the ongoing Post Fire has been displaying rapid growth in the presence of strong winds (gusts of 40-50 mph with higher gusts in mountain gaps) despite somewhat marginal RH for the area (15-25% minimums). All of this highlights the potential for further fire activity in the region. Otherwise, the Critical area has been expanded in southern Utah and northern Arizona with better confidence in Critical fire weather conditions overlapping areas of dry fuels. See the previous discussion for further details. ..Supinie.. 06/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0155 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024/ ...Synopsis... A secondary shortwave will rotate through the western US trough on Monday, bringing continued strong southwesterly flow across much of the desert southwest into the southern High Plains. Across northeastern Arizona, southeastern Utah, and portions of western New Mexico, afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap sustained winds around 20 mph. Fuels in this region are critically dry, supporting maintaining a Critical delineation across these regions on Monday. Broader Elevated fire weather concerns are expected across much of Arizona into southern/central Utah, eastern Nevada, and into western New Mexico and southern Colorado. Elevated fire weather concerns are also expected as strong northwesterly flow at 10-15 mph on the backside of the trough overlaps relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent (locally around 10 percent) within the Sacramento Valley and San Joaquin Valley in northern/central California. Fuels within this region are sufficiently dry to support Elevated fire weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN UTAH...NORTHERN ARIZONA...WESTERN NEW MEXICO...AND FAR SOUTHWEST COLORADO... The Elevated risk area in central California has been expanded southward to cover most of the San Joaquin Valley along with adjacent areas of the western Transverse Ranges and the southern Sierra Nevada. Fuels in the area have rapidly dried. Additionally, the ongoing Post Fire has been displaying rapid growth in the presence of strong winds (gusts of 40-50 mph with higher gusts in mountain gaps) despite somewhat marginal RH for the area (15-25% minimums). All of this highlights the potential for further fire activity in the region. Otherwise, the Critical area has been expanded in southern Utah and northern Arizona with better confidence in Critical fire weather conditions overlapping areas of dry fuels. See the previous discussion for further details. ..Supinie.. 06/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0155 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024/ ...Synopsis... A secondary shortwave will rotate through the western US trough on Monday, bringing continued strong southwesterly flow across much of the desert southwest into the southern High Plains. Across northeastern Arizona, southeastern Utah, and portions of western New Mexico, afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap sustained winds around 20 mph. Fuels in this region are critically dry, supporting maintaining a Critical delineation across these regions on Monday. Broader Elevated fire weather concerns are expected across much of Arizona into southern/central Utah, eastern Nevada, and into western New Mexico and southern Colorado. Elevated fire weather concerns are also expected as strong northwesterly flow at 10-15 mph on the backside of the trough overlaps relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent (locally around 10 percent) within the Sacramento Valley and San Joaquin Valley in northern/central California. Fuels within this region are sufficiently dry to support Elevated fire weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN UTAH...NORTHERN ARIZONA...WESTERN NEW MEXICO...AND FAR SOUTHWEST COLORADO... The Elevated risk area in central California has been expanded southward to cover most of the San Joaquin Valley along with adjacent areas of the western Transverse Ranges and the southern Sierra Nevada. Fuels in the area have rapidly dried. Additionally, the ongoing Post Fire has been displaying rapid growth in the presence of strong winds (gusts of 40-50 mph with higher gusts in mountain gaps) despite somewhat marginal RH for the area (15-25% minimums). All of this highlights the potential for further fire activity in the region. Otherwise, the Critical area has been expanded in southern Utah and northern Arizona with better confidence in Critical fire weather conditions overlapping areas of dry fuels. See the previous discussion for further details. ..Supinie.. 06/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0155 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024/ ...Synopsis... A secondary shortwave will rotate through the western US trough on Monday, bringing continued strong southwesterly flow across much of the desert southwest into the southern High Plains. Across northeastern Arizona, southeastern Utah, and portions of western New Mexico, afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap sustained winds around 20 mph. Fuels in this region are critically dry, supporting maintaining a Critical delineation across these regions on Monday. Broader Elevated fire weather concerns are expected across much of Arizona into southern/central Utah, eastern Nevada, and into western New Mexico and southern Colorado. Elevated fire weather concerns are also expected as strong northwesterly flow at 10-15 mph on the backside of the trough overlaps relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent (locally around 10 percent) within the Sacramento Valley and San Joaquin Valley in northern/central California. Fuels within this region are sufficiently dry to support Elevated fire weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN UTAH...NORTHERN ARIZONA...WESTERN NEW MEXICO...AND FAR SOUTHWEST COLORADO... The Elevated risk area in central California has been expanded southward to cover most of the San Joaquin Valley along with adjacent areas of the western Transverse Ranges and the southern Sierra Nevada. Fuels in the area have rapidly dried. Additionally, the ongoing Post Fire has been displaying rapid growth in the presence of strong winds (gusts of 40-50 mph with higher gusts in mountain gaps) despite somewhat marginal RH for the area (15-25% minimums). All of this highlights the potential for further fire activity in the region. Otherwise, the Critical area has been expanded in southern Utah and northern Arizona with better confidence in Critical fire weather conditions overlapping areas of dry fuels. See the previous discussion for further details. ..Supinie.. 06/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0155 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024/ ...Synopsis... A secondary shortwave will rotate through the western US trough on Monday, bringing continued strong southwesterly flow across much of the desert southwest into the southern High Plains. Across northeastern Arizona, southeastern Utah, and portions of western New Mexico, afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap sustained winds around 20 mph. Fuels in this region are critically dry, supporting maintaining a Critical delineation across these regions on Monday. Broader Elevated fire weather concerns are expected across much of Arizona into southern/central Utah, eastern Nevada, and into western New Mexico and southern Colorado. Elevated fire weather concerns are also expected as strong northwesterly flow at 10-15 mph on the backside of the trough overlaps relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent (locally around 10 percent) within the Sacramento Valley and San Joaquin Valley in northern/central California. Fuels within this region are sufficiently dry to support Elevated fire weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN UTAH...NORTHERN ARIZONA...WESTERN NEW MEXICO...AND FAR SOUTHWEST COLORADO... The Elevated risk area in central California has been expanded southward to cover most of the San Joaquin Valley along with adjacent areas of the western Transverse Ranges and the southern Sierra Nevada. Fuels in the area have rapidly dried. Additionally, the ongoing Post Fire has been displaying rapid growth in the presence of strong winds (gusts of 40-50 mph with higher gusts in mountain gaps) despite somewhat marginal RH for the area (15-25% minimums). All of this highlights the potential for further fire activity in the region. Otherwise, the Critical area has been expanded in southern Utah and northern Arizona with better confidence in Critical fire weather conditions overlapping areas of dry fuels. See the previous discussion for further details. ..Supinie.. 06/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0155 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024/ ...Synopsis... A secondary shortwave will rotate through the western US trough on Monday, bringing continued strong southwesterly flow across much of the desert southwest into the southern High Plains. Across northeastern Arizona, southeastern Utah, and portions of western New Mexico, afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap sustained winds around 20 mph. Fuels in this region are critically dry, supporting maintaining a Critical delineation across these regions on Monday. Broader Elevated fire weather concerns are expected across much of Arizona into southern/central Utah, eastern Nevada, and into western New Mexico and southern Colorado. Elevated fire weather concerns are also expected as strong northwesterly flow at 10-15 mph on the backside of the trough overlaps relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent (locally around 10 percent) within the Sacramento Valley and San Joaquin Valley in northern/central California. Fuels within this region are sufficiently dry to support Elevated fire weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more