Aggregator

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0119 AM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...Synopsis... ...Isolated Dry Thunderstorms... Isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible across portions of central/southern Utah, northwestern/central Colorado, and south-central Wyoming. A plume of mainly mid-level moisture, with precipitable water values around 0.50-0.75, will support high-based convection with little measurable rainfall, amid receptive fuels. Gusty and erratic outflow winds will be possible near thunderstorms. ...Wind/Dry... Enhanced mid-level westerly flow will remain over the Snake River Plain this afternoon. Sustained surface winds 15-20 mph will overlap with relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent and receptive fuels. Elevated fire conditions may extend into northern Nevada, however this remains too localized to include with this outlook. ..Thornton.. 08/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0119 AM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...Synopsis... ...Isolated Dry Thunderstorms... Isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible across portions of central/southern Utah, northwestern/central Colorado, and south-central Wyoming. A plume of mainly mid-level moisture, with precipitable water values around 0.50-0.75, will support high-based convection with little measurable rainfall, amid receptive fuels. Gusty and erratic outflow winds will be possible near thunderstorms. ...Wind/Dry... Enhanced mid-level westerly flow will remain over the Snake River Plain this afternoon. Sustained surface winds 15-20 mph will overlap with relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent and receptive fuels. Elevated fire conditions may extend into northern Nevada, however this remains too localized to include with this outlook. ..Thornton.. 08/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0119 AM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...Synopsis... ...Isolated Dry Thunderstorms... Isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible across portions of central/southern Utah, northwestern/central Colorado, and south-central Wyoming. A plume of mainly mid-level moisture, with precipitable water values around 0.50-0.75, will support high-based convection with little measurable rainfall, amid receptive fuels. Gusty and erratic outflow winds will be possible near thunderstorms. ...Wind/Dry... Enhanced mid-level westerly flow will remain over the Snake River Plain this afternoon. Sustained surface winds 15-20 mph will overlap with relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent and receptive fuels. Elevated fire conditions may extend into northern Nevada, however this remains too localized to include with this outlook. ..Thornton.. 08/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0119 AM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...Synopsis... ...Isolated Dry Thunderstorms... Isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible across portions of central/southern Utah, northwestern/central Colorado, and south-central Wyoming. A plume of mainly mid-level moisture, with precipitable water values around 0.50-0.75, will support high-based convection with little measurable rainfall, amid receptive fuels. Gusty and erratic outflow winds will be possible near thunderstorms. ...Wind/Dry... Enhanced mid-level westerly flow will remain over the Snake River Plain this afternoon. Sustained surface winds 15-20 mph will overlap with relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent and receptive fuels. Elevated fire conditions may extend into northern Nevada, however this remains too localized to include with this outlook. ..Thornton.. 08/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0119 AM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...Synopsis... ...Isolated Dry Thunderstorms... Isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible across portions of central/southern Utah, northwestern/central Colorado, and south-central Wyoming. A plume of mainly mid-level moisture, with precipitable water values around 0.50-0.75, will support high-based convection with little measurable rainfall, amid receptive fuels. Gusty and erratic outflow winds will be possible near thunderstorms. ...Wind/Dry... Enhanced mid-level westerly flow will remain over the Snake River Plain this afternoon. Sustained surface winds 15-20 mph will overlap with relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent and receptive fuels. Elevated fire conditions may extend into northern Nevada, however this remains too localized to include with this outlook. ..Thornton.. 08/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 1854 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 607... FOR COASTAL CAROLINAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1854 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 PM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Areas affected...Coastal Carolinas Concerning...Tornado Watch 607... Valid 070425Z - 070630Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 607 continues. SUMMARY...Risk of tornadoes is gradually lowering across coastal portions of the Carolinas. New tornado watch is not currently expected. DISCUSSION...TS Debby remains located off the Carolina Coast south of CHS. Several broken convective bands persist within the eastern hemisphere of this cyclone with the most pronounced activity rotating inland from southeast SC into southern NC, within the main body of ww607. 00z soundings from CHS and MHX exhibit only modest shear with typical poor lapse rates and weak buoyancy. Earlier this evening several weak supercells were noted within the stronger bands, but updrafts appear to have weakened per radar and lightning data. Given the modest shear, and poor buoyancy, new Tornado Watch is not currently anticipated. ..Darrow.. 08/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS... LAT...LON 33777996 35257702 34477656 33007950 33777996 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 070533
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Tue Aug 6 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Emilia, located several hundred miles southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula, and on Tropical Storm
Fabio, located several hundred miles west-southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

Arkansas City commissioners approved a stage one water watch and encouraged the public to voluntarily conserve water. The reasons for the water watch were the time of year, the lack of rain, and the high water demand for lawn watering. Cowley Courier Traveler (Winfield, Kan.), Aug 7, 2024

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 PM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA COASTAL PLAIN... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms developing Thursday across the coastal plain of eastern North Carolina through southeastern Virginia may be accompanied by potential for a few tornadoes, as Debby moves inland across the south Atlantic coast. ...Synopsis... Within mid-level troughing, initially southeast through south of a prominent high centered over the Canadian Northwest Territories, it appears that a couple of notable smaller-scale perturbations will consolidate into an evolving mid-level low near the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity by late Thursday night. At the same time, in lower latitudes, another prominent ridge likely will be maintained across much of the southern Great Basin into southern Great Plains. However, there may be some suppression of this ridging across the middle through lower Missouri Valley, and there appears a greater consensus among the model output that the remnants of Debby will begin a northward acceleration, inland of the South Carolina coast toward the southern Virginia Piedmont through 12Z Friday. In response to these developments, further low-level cooling and/or drying is likely across much of the interior U.S. during this period, as surface ridging builds southward to the lee of the Rockies, through much of the Missouri and Mississippi Valleys. ...Southern Mid Atlantic... Debby is still forecast to be at tropical storm strength as the low-level circulation center slowly migrates inland across eastern South Carolina Thursday morning. And it appears that low-level wind fields will remain potentially conducive to large clockwise-curved low-level hodographs conditionally supportive of convection capable of producing tornadoes, to the north through east of the center as it slowly accelerates north-northwestward to northward though Thursday night. Although the degree of boundary-layer destabilization inland of coastal areas remains uncertain, the most appreciable surface-based buoyancy probably will remain focused where surface dew points increase into the mid 70s+ F, to the east of the mid-level warm core (roughly near -4 C around 500 mb). It appears that this will overspread the eastern North Carolina through southeastern Virginia coastal plain during the day, when daytime heating will maximize potential instability and the risk for tornadoes in the most vigorous convective development, within/ahead of Debby's spiraling eastern outer bands. ..Kerr.. 08/07/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 PM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA COASTAL PLAIN... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms developing Thursday across the coastal plain of eastern North Carolina through southeastern Virginia may be accompanied by potential for a few tornadoes, as Debby moves inland across the south Atlantic coast. ...Synopsis... Within mid-level troughing, initially southeast through south of a prominent high centered over the Canadian Northwest Territories, it appears that a couple of notable smaller-scale perturbations will consolidate into an evolving mid-level low near the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity by late Thursday night. At the same time, in lower latitudes, another prominent ridge likely will be maintained across much of the southern Great Basin into southern Great Plains. However, there may be some suppression of this ridging across the middle through lower Missouri Valley, and there appears a greater consensus among the model output that the remnants of Debby will begin a northward acceleration, inland of the South Carolina coast toward the southern Virginia Piedmont through 12Z Friday. In response to these developments, further low-level cooling and/or drying is likely across much of the interior U.S. during this period, as surface ridging builds southward to the lee of the Rockies, through much of the Missouri and Mississippi Valleys. ...Southern Mid Atlantic... Debby is still forecast to be at tropical storm strength as the low-level circulation center slowly migrates inland across eastern South Carolina Thursday morning. And it appears that low-level wind fields will remain potentially conducive to large clockwise-curved low-level hodographs conditionally supportive of convection capable of producing tornadoes, to the north through east of the center as it slowly accelerates north-northwestward to northward though Thursday night. Although the degree of boundary-layer destabilization inland of coastal areas remains uncertain, the most appreciable surface-based buoyancy probably will remain focused where surface dew points increase into the mid 70s+ F, to the east of the mid-level warm core (roughly near -4 C around 500 mb). It appears that this will overspread the eastern North Carolina through southeastern Virginia coastal plain during the day, when daytime heating will maximize potential instability and the risk for tornadoes in the most vigorous convective development, within/ahead of Debby's spiraling eastern outer bands. ..Kerr.. 08/07/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 PM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA COASTAL PLAIN... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms developing Thursday across the coastal plain of eastern North Carolina through southeastern Virginia may be accompanied by potential for a few tornadoes, as Debby moves inland across the south Atlantic coast. ...Synopsis... Within mid-level troughing, initially southeast through south of a prominent high centered over the Canadian Northwest Territories, it appears that a couple of notable smaller-scale perturbations will consolidate into an evolving mid-level low near the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity by late Thursday night. At the same time, in lower latitudes, another prominent ridge likely will be maintained across much of the southern Great Basin into southern Great Plains. However, there may be some suppression of this ridging across the middle through lower Missouri Valley, and there appears a greater consensus among the model output that the remnants of Debby will begin a northward acceleration, inland of the South Carolina coast toward the southern Virginia Piedmont through 12Z Friday. In response to these developments, further low-level cooling and/or drying is likely across much of the interior U.S. during this period, as surface ridging builds southward to the lee of the Rockies, through much of the Missouri and Mississippi Valleys. ...Southern Mid Atlantic... Debby is still forecast to be at tropical storm strength as the low-level circulation center slowly migrates inland across eastern South Carolina Thursday morning. And it appears that low-level wind fields will remain potentially conducive to large clockwise-curved low-level hodographs conditionally supportive of convection capable of producing tornadoes, to the north through east of the center as it slowly accelerates north-northwestward to northward though Thursday night. Although the degree of boundary-layer destabilization inland of coastal areas remains uncertain, the most appreciable surface-based buoyancy probably will remain focused where surface dew points increase into the mid 70s+ F, to the east of the mid-level warm core (roughly near -4 C around 500 mb). It appears that this will overspread the eastern North Carolina through southeastern Virginia coastal plain during the day, when daytime heating will maximize potential instability and the risk for tornadoes in the most vigorous convective development, within/ahead of Debby's spiraling eastern outer bands. ..Kerr.. 08/07/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 PM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA COASTAL PLAIN... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms developing Thursday across the coastal plain of eastern North Carolina through southeastern Virginia may be accompanied by potential for a few tornadoes, as Debby moves inland across the south Atlantic coast. ...Synopsis... Within mid-level troughing, initially southeast through south of a prominent high centered over the Canadian Northwest Territories, it appears that a couple of notable smaller-scale perturbations will consolidate into an evolving mid-level low near the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity by late Thursday night. At the same time, in lower latitudes, another prominent ridge likely will be maintained across much of the southern Great Basin into southern Great Plains. However, there may be some suppression of this ridging across the middle through lower Missouri Valley, and there appears a greater consensus among the model output that the remnants of Debby will begin a northward acceleration, inland of the South Carolina coast toward the southern Virginia Piedmont through 12Z Friday. In response to these developments, further low-level cooling and/or drying is likely across much of the interior U.S. during this period, as surface ridging builds southward to the lee of the Rockies, through much of the Missouri and Mississippi Valleys. ...Southern Mid Atlantic... Debby is still forecast to be at tropical storm strength as the low-level circulation center slowly migrates inland across eastern South Carolina Thursday morning. And it appears that low-level wind fields will remain potentially conducive to large clockwise-curved low-level hodographs conditionally supportive of convection capable of producing tornadoes, to the north through east of the center as it slowly accelerates north-northwestward to northward though Thursday night. Although the degree of boundary-layer destabilization inland of coastal areas remains uncertain, the most appreciable surface-based buoyancy probably will remain focused where surface dew points increase into the mid 70s+ F, to the east of the mid-level warm core (roughly near -4 C around 500 mb). It appears that this will overspread the eastern North Carolina through southeastern Virginia coastal plain during the day, when daytime heating will maximize potential instability and the risk for tornadoes in the most vigorous convective development, within/ahead of Debby's spiraling eastern outer bands. ..Kerr.. 08/07/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 PM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA COASTAL PLAIN... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms developing Thursday across the coastal plain of eastern North Carolina through southeastern Virginia may be accompanied by potential for a few tornadoes, as Debby moves inland across the south Atlantic coast. ...Synopsis... Within mid-level troughing, initially southeast through south of a prominent high centered over the Canadian Northwest Territories, it appears that a couple of notable smaller-scale perturbations will consolidate into an evolving mid-level low near the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity by late Thursday night. At the same time, in lower latitudes, another prominent ridge likely will be maintained across much of the southern Great Basin into southern Great Plains. However, there may be some suppression of this ridging across the middle through lower Missouri Valley, and there appears a greater consensus among the model output that the remnants of Debby will begin a northward acceleration, inland of the South Carolina coast toward the southern Virginia Piedmont through 12Z Friday. In response to these developments, further low-level cooling and/or drying is likely across much of the interior U.S. during this period, as surface ridging builds southward to the lee of the Rockies, through much of the Missouri and Mississippi Valleys. ...Southern Mid Atlantic... Debby is still forecast to be at tropical storm strength as the low-level circulation center slowly migrates inland across eastern South Carolina Thursday morning. And it appears that low-level wind fields will remain potentially conducive to large clockwise-curved low-level hodographs conditionally supportive of convection capable of producing tornadoes, to the north through east of the center as it slowly accelerates north-northwestward to northward though Thursday night. Although the degree of boundary-layer destabilization inland of coastal areas remains uncertain, the most appreciable surface-based buoyancy probably will remain focused where surface dew points increase into the mid 70s+ F, to the east of the mid-level warm core (roughly near -4 C around 500 mb). It appears that this will overspread the eastern North Carolina through southeastern Virginia coastal plain during the day, when daytime heating will maximize potential instability and the risk for tornadoes in the most vigorous convective development, within/ahead of Debby's spiraling eastern outer bands. ..Kerr.. 08/07/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 PM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA COASTAL PLAIN... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms developing Thursday across the coastal plain of eastern North Carolina through southeastern Virginia may be accompanied by potential for a few tornadoes, as Debby moves inland across the south Atlantic coast. ...Synopsis... Within mid-level troughing, initially southeast through south of a prominent high centered over the Canadian Northwest Territories, it appears that a couple of notable smaller-scale perturbations will consolidate into an evolving mid-level low near the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity by late Thursday night. At the same time, in lower latitudes, another prominent ridge likely will be maintained across much of the southern Great Basin into southern Great Plains. However, there may be some suppression of this ridging across the middle through lower Missouri Valley, and there appears a greater consensus among the model output that the remnants of Debby will begin a northward acceleration, inland of the South Carolina coast toward the southern Virginia Piedmont through 12Z Friday. In response to these developments, further low-level cooling and/or drying is likely across much of the interior U.S. during this period, as surface ridging builds southward to the lee of the Rockies, through much of the Missouri and Mississippi Valleys. ...Southern Mid Atlantic... Debby is still forecast to be at tropical storm strength as the low-level circulation center slowly migrates inland across eastern South Carolina Thursday morning. And it appears that low-level wind fields will remain potentially conducive to large clockwise-curved low-level hodographs conditionally supportive of convection capable of producing tornadoes, to the north through east of the center as it slowly accelerates north-northwestward to northward though Thursday night. Although the degree of boundary-layer destabilization inland of coastal areas remains uncertain, the most appreciable surface-based buoyancy probably will remain focused where surface dew points increase into the mid 70s+ F, to the east of the mid-level warm core (roughly near -4 C around 500 mb). It appears that this will overspread the eastern North Carolina through southeastern Virginia coastal plain during the day, when daytime heating will maximize potential instability and the risk for tornadoes in the most vigorous convective development, within/ahead of Debby's spiraling eastern outer bands. ..Kerr.. 08/07/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 PM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA COASTAL PLAIN... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms developing Thursday across the coastal plain of eastern North Carolina through southeastern Virginia may be accompanied by potential for a few tornadoes, as Debby moves inland across the south Atlantic coast. ...Synopsis... Within mid-level troughing, initially southeast through south of a prominent high centered over the Canadian Northwest Territories, it appears that a couple of notable smaller-scale perturbations will consolidate into an evolving mid-level low near the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity by late Thursday night. At the same time, in lower latitudes, another prominent ridge likely will be maintained across much of the southern Great Basin into southern Great Plains. However, there may be some suppression of this ridging across the middle through lower Missouri Valley, and there appears a greater consensus among the model output that the remnants of Debby will begin a northward acceleration, inland of the South Carolina coast toward the southern Virginia Piedmont through 12Z Friday. In response to these developments, further low-level cooling and/or drying is likely across much of the interior U.S. during this period, as surface ridging builds southward to the lee of the Rockies, through much of the Missouri and Mississippi Valleys. ...Southern Mid Atlantic... Debby is still forecast to be at tropical storm strength as the low-level circulation center slowly migrates inland across eastern South Carolina Thursday morning. And it appears that low-level wind fields will remain potentially conducive to large clockwise-curved low-level hodographs conditionally supportive of convection capable of producing tornadoes, to the north through east of the center as it slowly accelerates north-northwestward to northward though Thursday night. Although the degree of boundary-layer destabilization inland of coastal areas remains uncertain, the most appreciable surface-based buoyancy probably will remain focused where surface dew points increase into the mid 70s+ F, to the east of the mid-level warm core (roughly near -4 C around 500 mb). It appears that this will overspread the eastern North Carolina through southeastern Virginia coastal plain during the day, when daytime heating will maximize potential instability and the risk for tornadoes in the most vigorous convective development, within/ahead of Debby's spiraling eastern outer bands. ..Kerr.. 08/07/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 PM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA COASTAL PLAIN... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms developing Thursday across the coastal plain of eastern North Carolina through southeastern Virginia may be accompanied by potential for a few tornadoes, as Debby moves inland across the south Atlantic coast. ...Synopsis... Within mid-level troughing, initially southeast through south of a prominent high centered over the Canadian Northwest Territories, it appears that a couple of notable smaller-scale perturbations will consolidate into an evolving mid-level low near the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity by late Thursday night. At the same time, in lower latitudes, another prominent ridge likely will be maintained across much of the southern Great Basin into southern Great Plains. However, there may be some suppression of this ridging across the middle through lower Missouri Valley, and there appears a greater consensus among the model output that the remnants of Debby will begin a northward acceleration, inland of the South Carolina coast toward the southern Virginia Piedmont through 12Z Friday. In response to these developments, further low-level cooling and/or drying is likely across much of the interior U.S. during this period, as surface ridging builds southward to the lee of the Rockies, through much of the Missouri and Mississippi Valleys. ...Southern Mid Atlantic... Debby is still forecast to be at tropical storm strength as the low-level circulation center slowly migrates inland across eastern South Carolina Thursday morning. And it appears that low-level wind fields will remain potentially conducive to large clockwise-curved low-level hodographs conditionally supportive of convection capable of producing tornadoes, to the north through east of the center as it slowly accelerates north-northwestward to northward though Thursday night. Although the degree of boundary-layer destabilization inland of coastal areas remains uncertain, the most appreciable surface-based buoyancy probably will remain focused where surface dew points increase into the mid 70s+ F, to the east of the mid-level warm core (roughly near -4 C around 500 mb). It appears that this will overspread the eastern North Carolina through southeastern Virginia coastal plain during the day, when daytime heating will maximize potential instability and the risk for tornadoes in the most vigorous convective development, within/ahead of Debby's spiraling eastern outer bands. ..Kerr.. 08/07/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 PM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA COASTAL PLAIN... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms developing Thursday across the coastal plain of eastern North Carolina through southeastern Virginia may be accompanied by potential for a few tornadoes, as Debby moves inland across the south Atlantic coast. ...Synopsis... Within mid-level troughing, initially southeast through south of a prominent high centered over the Canadian Northwest Territories, it appears that a couple of notable smaller-scale perturbations will consolidate into an evolving mid-level low near the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity by late Thursday night. At the same time, in lower latitudes, another prominent ridge likely will be maintained across much of the southern Great Basin into southern Great Plains. However, there may be some suppression of this ridging across the middle through lower Missouri Valley, and there appears a greater consensus among the model output that the remnants of Debby will begin a northward acceleration, inland of the South Carolina coast toward the southern Virginia Piedmont through 12Z Friday. In response to these developments, further low-level cooling and/or drying is likely across much of the interior U.S. during this period, as surface ridging builds southward to the lee of the Rockies, through much of the Missouri and Mississippi Valleys. ...Southern Mid Atlantic... Debby is still forecast to be at tropical storm strength as the low-level circulation center slowly migrates inland across eastern South Carolina Thursday morning. And it appears that low-level wind fields will remain potentially conducive to large clockwise-curved low-level hodographs conditionally supportive of convection capable of producing tornadoes, to the north through east of the center as it slowly accelerates north-northwestward to northward though Thursday night. Although the degree of boundary-layer destabilization inland of coastal areas remains uncertain, the most appreciable surface-based buoyancy probably will remain focused where surface dew points increase into the mid 70s+ F, to the east of the mid-level warm core (roughly near -4 C around 500 mb). It appears that this will overspread the eastern North Carolina through southeastern Virginia coastal plain during the day, when daytime heating will maximize potential instability and the risk for tornadoes in the most vigorous convective development, within/ahead of Debby's spiraling eastern outer bands. ..Kerr.. 08/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 PM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS VICINITY...AND PARTS OF THE COASTAL CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong storms will be possible from eastern Wyoming and Colorado into parts of the central Plains late this afternoon and evening, with more isolated activity into the northern Plains. A few strong thunderstorms in association with Tropical Storm Debby may impact parts of the coastal Carolinas through tonight. ...Synopsis... An upper cyclone centered over the Canadian Prairies and its attendant trough will develop south/southeast over the northern Plains and Upper Midwest today. A belt of enhanced midlevel westerly flow will overspread the region as far south as NE/KS. At the surface, an elongated low will extend from western Ontario into the eastern Dakotas by midday, and over the upper Great Lakes/MS Valley by Thursday morning. A trailing cold front will develop east/southeast across the northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest through the period. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Debby will persist near coastal South Carolina. ...Southeast WY/Northeast CO into NE/KS and Southeast SD... Southerly low-level flow will allow 60s F dewpoints to stream northward ahead of the cold front. Heating and steepening lapse rates will allow for a corridor of modest instability near the front by mid/late afternoon from northern/central NE into southeast SD. Isolated cells are expected to develop near the front, though may remain somewhat elevated. Nevertheless, favorable vertical shear and elongated/straight hodographs amid modestly steep midlevel lapse rates suggests isolated large hail will be possible. Strong gusts also may accompany these cells. Additional convection is expected to develop in the post-frontal upslope regime across southeast WY into northeast CO and shift east across northwest/north-central KS and NE. This activity also may pose an isolated hail risk in addition to localized strong gusts if forward propagating clusters can become established. ...Coastal Carolinas... Low-level vertical shear will remain enhanced and favorable for low-level rotation. Low-level instability will mostly be attributed to surface dewpoints in the mid 70s F, but will likely remain on the weak side given limited heating and poor lapse rates. Nevertheless, a low-end tornado risk may persist with any stronger cells moving onshore. ..Leitman/Thornton.. 08/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 PM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS VICINITY...AND PARTS OF THE COASTAL CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong storms will be possible from eastern Wyoming and Colorado into parts of the central Plains late this afternoon and evening, with more isolated activity into the northern Plains. A few strong thunderstorms in association with Tropical Storm Debby may impact parts of the coastal Carolinas through tonight. ...Synopsis... An upper cyclone centered over the Canadian Prairies and its attendant trough will develop south/southeast over the northern Plains and Upper Midwest today. A belt of enhanced midlevel westerly flow will overspread the region as far south as NE/KS. At the surface, an elongated low will extend from western Ontario into the eastern Dakotas by midday, and over the upper Great Lakes/MS Valley by Thursday morning. A trailing cold front will develop east/southeast across the northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest through the period. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Debby will persist near coastal South Carolina. ...Southeast WY/Northeast CO into NE/KS and Southeast SD... Southerly low-level flow will allow 60s F dewpoints to stream northward ahead of the cold front. Heating and steepening lapse rates will allow for a corridor of modest instability near the front by mid/late afternoon from northern/central NE into southeast SD. Isolated cells are expected to develop near the front, though may remain somewhat elevated. Nevertheless, favorable vertical shear and elongated/straight hodographs amid modestly steep midlevel lapse rates suggests isolated large hail will be possible. Strong gusts also may accompany these cells. Additional convection is expected to develop in the post-frontal upslope regime across southeast WY into northeast CO and shift east across northwest/north-central KS and NE. This activity also may pose an isolated hail risk in addition to localized strong gusts if forward propagating clusters can become established. ...Coastal Carolinas... Low-level vertical shear will remain enhanced and favorable for low-level rotation. Low-level instability will mostly be attributed to surface dewpoints in the mid 70s F, but will likely remain on the weak side given limited heating and poor lapse rates. Nevertheless, a low-end tornado risk may persist with any stronger cells moving onshore. ..Leitman/Thornton.. 08/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 PM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS VICINITY...AND PARTS OF THE COASTAL CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong storms will be possible from eastern Wyoming and Colorado into parts of the central Plains late this afternoon and evening, with more isolated activity into the northern Plains. A few strong thunderstorms in association with Tropical Storm Debby may impact parts of the coastal Carolinas through tonight. ...Synopsis... An upper cyclone centered over the Canadian Prairies and its attendant trough will develop south/southeast over the northern Plains and Upper Midwest today. A belt of enhanced midlevel westerly flow will overspread the region as far south as NE/KS. At the surface, an elongated low will extend from western Ontario into the eastern Dakotas by midday, and over the upper Great Lakes/MS Valley by Thursday morning. A trailing cold front will develop east/southeast across the northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest through the period. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Debby will persist near coastal South Carolina. ...Southeast WY/Northeast CO into NE/KS and Southeast SD... Southerly low-level flow will allow 60s F dewpoints to stream northward ahead of the cold front. Heating and steepening lapse rates will allow for a corridor of modest instability near the front by mid/late afternoon from northern/central NE into southeast SD. Isolated cells are expected to develop near the front, though may remain somewhat elevated. Nevertheless, favorable vertical shear and elongated/straight hodographs amid modestly steep midlevel lapse rates suggests isolated large hail will be possible. Strong gusts also may accompany these cells. Additional convection is expected to develop in the post-frontal upslope regime across southeast WY into northeast CO and shift east across northwest/north-central KS and NE. This activity also may pose an isolated hail risk in addition to localized strong gusts if forward propagating clusters can become established. ...Coastal Carolinas... Low-level vertical shear will remain enhanced and favorable for low-level rotation. Low-level instability will mostly be attributed to surface dewpoints in the mid 70s F, but will likely remain on the weak side given limited heating and poor lapse rates. Nevertheless, a low-end tornado risk may persist with any stronger cells moving onshore. ..Leitman/Thornton.. 08/07/2024 Read more