SPC Jun 17, 2024 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

1 year 1 month ago
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not currently forecast for Wednesday. Portions of the Texas Coast will need to be monitored closely for potential tropical weather influences going forward. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A strong upper ridge will exist over the northeastern states on Wednesday, providing hot weather. This ridge will deflect an upper trough over MN early northward into Ontario and toward Hudson Bay, then eastward into Quebec through Thursday morning. At the surface, a residual front will extend roughly from the upper Great Lakes into the central Plains, providing weak low-level lift. While bouts of rain and thunderstorms are expected throughout the day along this zone, weak shear and warming temperatures aloft preclude any low severe probabilities this far out in time. To the south, an area of disturbed weather currently has a 60% probability of cyclone formation in the next couple days per NHC guidance, and this could potentially enhance low-level shear and potentially affect the TX Coast. If this occurs, low tornado probabilities may be needed in this area in later outlooks. ..Jewell.. 06/17/2024 Read more

SPC Jun 17, 2024 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

1 year 1 month ago
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not currently forecast for Wednesday. Portions of the Texas Coast will need to be monitored closely for potential tropical weather influences going forward. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A strong upper ridge will exist over the northeastern states on Wednesday, providing hot weather. This ridge will deflect an upper trough over MN early northward into Ontario and toward Hudson Bay, then eastward into Quebec through Thursday morning. At the surface, a residual front will extend roughly from the upper Great Lakes into the central Plains, providing weak low-level lift. While bouts of rain and thunderstorms are expected throughout the day along this zone, weak shear and warming temperatures aloft preclude any low severe probabilities this far out in time. To the south, an area of disturbed weather currently has a 60% probability of cyclone formation in the next couple days per NHC guidance, and this could potentially enhance low-level shear and potentially affect the TX Coast. If this occurs, low tornado probabilities may be needed in this area in later outlooks. ..Jewell.. 06/17/2024 Read more

SPC Jun 17, 2024 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

1 year 1 month ago
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not currently forecast for Wednesday. Portions of the Texas Coast will need to be monitored closely for potential tropical weather influences going forward. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A strong upper ridge will exist over the northeastern states on Wednesday, providing hot weather. This ridge will deflect an upper trough over MN early northward into Ontario and toward Hudson Bay, then eastward into Quebec through Thursday morning. At the surface, a residual front will extend roughly from the upper Great Lakes into the central Plains, providing weak low-level lift. While bouts of rain and thunderstorms are expected throughout the day along this zone, weak shear and warming temperatures aloft preclude any low severe probabilities this far out in time. To the south, an area of disturbed weather currently has a 60% probability of cyclone formation in the next couple days per NHC guidance, and this could potentially enhance low-level shear and potentially affect the TX Coast. If this occurs, low tornado probabilities may be needed in this area in later outlooks. ..Jewell.. 06/17/2024 Read more

SPC Jun 17, 2024 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

1 year 1 month ago
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not currently forecast for Wednesday. Portions of the Texas Coast will need to be monitored closely for potential tropical weather influences going forward. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A strong upper ridge will exist over the northeastern states on Wednesday, providing hot weather. This ridge will deflect an upper trough over MN early northward into Ontario and toward Hudson Bay, then eastward into Quebec through Thursday morning. At the surface, a residual front will extend roughly from the upper Great Lakes into the central Plains, providing weak low-level lift. While bouts of rain and thunderstorms are expected throughout the day along this zone, weak shear and warming temperatures aloft preclude any low severe probabilities this far out in time. To the south, an area of disturbed weather currently has a 60% probability of cyclone formation in the next couple days per NHC guidance, and this could potentially enhance low-level shear and potentially affect the TX Coast. If this occurs, low tornado probabilities may be needed in this area in later outlooks. ..Jewell.. 06/17/2024 Read more

SPC Jun 17, 2024 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

1 year 1 month ago
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not currently forecast for Wednesday. Portions of the Texas Coast will need to be monitored closely for potential tropical weather influences going forward. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A strong upper ridge will exist over the northeastern states on Wednesday, providing hot weather. This ridge will deflect an upper trough over MN early northward into Ontario and toward Hudson Bay, then eastward into Quebec through Thursday morning. At the surface, a residual front will extend roughly from the upper Great Lakes into the central Plains, providing weak low-level lift. While bouts of rain and thunderstorms are expected throughout the day along this zone, weak shear and warming temperatures aloft preclude any low severe probabilities this far out in time. To the south, an area of disturbed weather currently has a 60% probability of cyclone formation in the next couple days per NHC guidance, and this could potentially enhance low-level shear and potentially affect the TX Coast. If this occurs, low tornado probabilities may be needed in this area in later outlooks. ..Jewell.. 06/17/2024 Read more

SPC Jun 17, 2024 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

1 year 1 month ago
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not currently forecast for Wednesday. Portions of the Texas Coast will need to be monitored closely for potential tropical weather influences going forward. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A strong upper ridge will exist over the northeastern states on Wednesday, providing hot weather. This ridge will deflect an upper trough over MN early northward into Ontario and toward Hudson Bay, then eastward into Quebec through Thursday morning. At the surface, a residual front will extend roughly from the upper Great Lakes into the central Plains, providing weak low-level lift. While bouts of rain and thunderstorms are expected throughout the day along this zone, weak shear and warming temperatures aloft preclude any low severe probabilities this far out in time. To the south, an area of disturbed weather currently has a 60% probability of cyclone formation in the next couple days per NHC guidance, and this could potentially enhance low-level shear and potentially affect the TX Coast. If this occurs, low tornado probabilities may be needed in this area in later outlooks. ..Jewell.. 06/17/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 1 month ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...Synopsis... A trough will lift northward across the Northern Rockies into the northern Plains on Tuesday. Heights will rise across the southwestern US with weakening southwest gradients and lighter winds returning. Areas of dry southwesterly flow will linger across portions of central/eastern New Mexico. In this region, afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap winds around 15 mph for a period of Elevated fire weather Tuesday afternoon. Localized breezes and Elevated fire weather concerns may extend further southwest into western New Mexico and southern Arizona. ..Thornton.. 06/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 1 month ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...Synopsis... A trough will lift northward across the Northern Rockies into the northern Plains on Tuesday. Heights will rise across the southwestern US with weakening southwest gradients and lighter winds returning. Areas of dry southwesterly flow will linger across portions of central/eastern New Mexico. In this region, afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap winds around 15 mph for a period of Elevated fire weather Tuesday afternoon. Localized breezes and Elevated fire weather concerns may extend further southwest into western New Mexico and southern Arizona. ..Thornton.. 06/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 1 month ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...Synopsis... A trough will lift northward across the Northern Rockies into the northern Plains on Tuesday. Heights will rise across the southwestern US with weakening southwest gradients and lighter winds returning. Areas of dry southwesterly flow will linger across portions of central/eastern New Mexico. In this region, afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap winds around 15 mph for a period of Elevated fire weather Tuesday afternoon. Localized breezes and Elevated fire weather concerns may extend further southwest into western New Mexico and southern Arizona. ..Thornton.. 06/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 1 month ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...Synopsis... A trough will lift northward across the Northern Rockies into the northern Plains on Tuesday. Heights will rise across the southwestern US with weakening southwest gradients and lighter winds returning. Areas of dry southwesterly flow will linger across portions of central/eastern New Mexico. In this region, afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap winds around 15 mph for a period of Elevated fire weather Tuesday afternoon. Localized breezes and Elevated fire weather concerns may extend further southwest into western New Mexico and southern Arizona. ..Thornton.. 06/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 1 month ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...Synopsis... A trough will lift northward across the Northern Rockies into the northern Plains on Tuesday. Heights will rise across the southwestern US with weakening southwest gradients and lighter winds returning. Areas of dry southwesterly flow will linger across portions of central/eastern New Mexico. In this region, afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap winds around 15 mph for a period of Elevated fire weather Tuesday afternoon. Localized breezes and Elevated fire weather concerns may extend further southwest into western New Mexico and southern Arizona. ..Thornton.. 06/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 1 month ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...Synopsis... A trough will lift northward across the Northern Rockies into the northern Plains on Tuesday. Heights will rise across the southwestern US with weakening southwest gradients and lighter winds returning. Areas of dry southwesterly flow will linger across portions of central/eastern New Mexico. In this region, afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap winds around 15 mph for a period of Elevated fire weather Tuesday afternoon. Localized breezes and Elevated fire weather concerns may extend further southwest into western New Mexico and southern Arizona. ..Thornton.. 06/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 1 month ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...Synopsis... A trough will lift northward across the Northern Rockies into the northern Plains on Tuesday. Heights will rise across the southwestern US with weakening southwest gradients and lighter winds returning. Areas of dry southwesterly flow will linger across portions of central/eastern New Mexico. In this region, afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap winds around 15 mph for a period of Elevated fire weather Tuesday afternoon. Localized breezes and Elevated fire weather concerns may extend further southwest into western New Mexico and southern Arizona. ..Thornton.. 06/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 1 month ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...Synopsis... A trough will lift northward across the Northern Rockies into the northern Plains on Tuesday. Heights will rise across the southwestern US with weakening southwest gradients and lighter winds returning. Areas of dry southwesterly flow will linger across portions of central/eastern New Mexico. In this region, afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap winds around 15 mph for a period of Elevated fire weather Tuesday afternoon. Localized breezes and Elevated fire weather concerns may extend further southwest into western New Mexico and southern Arizona. ..Thornton.. 06/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 1 month ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...Synopsis... A trough will lift northward across the Northern Rockies into the northern Plains on Tuesday. Heights will rise across the southwestern US with weakening southwest gradients and lighter winds returning. Areas of dry southwesterly flow will linger across portions of central/eastern New Mexico. In this region, afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap winds around 15 mph for a period of Elevated fire weather Tuesday afternoon. Localized breezes and Elevated fire weather concerns may extend further southwest into western New Mexico and southern Arizona. ..Thornton.. 06/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 1 month ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...Synopsis... A trough will lift northward across the Northern Rockies into the northern Plains on Tuesday. Heights will rise across the southwestern US with weakening southwest gradients and lighter winds returning. Areas of dry southwesterly flow will linger across portions of central/eastern New Mexico. In this region, afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap winds around 15 mph for a period of Elevated fire weather Tuesday afternoon. Localized breezes and Elevated fire weather concerns may extend further southwest into western New Mexico and southern Arizona. ..Thornton.. 06/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 1 month ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...Synopsis... A trough will lift northward across the Northern Rockies into the northern Plains on Tuesday. Heights will rise across the southwestern US with weakening southwest gradients and lighter winds returning. Areas of dry southwesterly flow will linger across portions of central/eastern New Mexico. In this region, afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap winds around 15 mph for a period of Elevated fire weather Tuesday afternoon. Localized breezes and Elevated fire weather concerns may extend further southwest into western New Mexico and southern Arizona. ..Thornton.. 06/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 1 month ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...Synopsis... A trough will lift northward across the Northern Rockies into the northern Plains on Tuesday. Heights will rise across the southwestern US with weakening southwest gradients and lighter winds returning. Areas of dry southwesterly flow will linger across portions of central/eastern New Mexico. In this region, afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap winds around 15 mph for a period of Elevated fire weather Tuesday afternoon. Localized breezes and Elevated fire weather concerns may extend further southwest into western New Mexico and southern Arizona. ..Thornton.. 06/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 1 month ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...Synopsis... A trough will lift northward across the Northern Rockies into the northern Plains on Tuesday. Heights will rise across the southwestern US with weakening southwest gradients and lighter winds returning. Areas of dry southwesterly flow will linger across portions of central/eastern New Mexico. In this region, afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap winds around 15 mph for a period of Elevated fire weather Tuesday afternoon. Localized breezes and Elevated fire weather concerns may extend further southwest into western New Mexico and southern Arizona. ..Thornton.. 06/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 1 month ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN UTAH...NORTHERN ARIZONA...WESTERN NEW MEXICO...AND FAR SOUTHWEST COLORADO... ...Synopsis... A shortwave will rotate through the western US trough today, bringing strong southwesterly flow across much of the desert southwest into the southern High Plains. Across northern Arizona, southeastern Utah, and portions of western New Mexico, Critical fire weather is expected where afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap sustained winds around 20 mph and critically dry fuels. Broader Elevated fire weather concerns are expected across much of Arizona into southern/central Utah, eastern Nevada, and into western New Mexico and southern Colorado. Elevated fire weather concerns are also expected within the Sacramento Valley, San Joaquin Valley, the western Transverse Ranges, and the southern Sierra Nevada in northern/central California where strong northwesterly flow at 10-15 mph (locally stronger in foothills and mountain passes) will overlap relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent (locally around 10 percent) Fuels within much of this region are sufficiently dry to support Elevated fire weather concerns and recent fire activity suggest that fuels are drying quickly and supportive of fire spread. ..Thornton.. 06/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more