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SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible Tuesday afternoon over parts of the upper Mississippi Valley southwestward into parts of Nebraska and Kansas. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will move east across the northern High Plains on Tuesday, with a 70+ kt midlevel speed max moving across the Dakotas and MN. Gradual height falls will occur over this region, despite the strong upper ridge over the East. Midlevel wind speeds of 30 kt will exist as far south as KS. At the surface, low pressure will move from the eastern Dakotas into northern MN and western Ontario, with a cold front extending southwest from the low across MN, NE, and KS. A moist and unstable air mass will exist ahead of the front, with the strongest overall shear profiles over the upper MS Valley during the afternoon and evening. Elsewhere, substantial convection will develop into the western Gulf of Mexico, with most of the stronger instability remaining offshore the TX Coast. ...Upper MS Valley southwestward into KS... Given the strong upper ridge over the East, the northern plains trough will move slowly east, with most of the strong flow likely remaining behind the cold front. Still, moderate instability will develop with robust boundary layer moisture, with MUCAPE over 2000 J/kg ahead of the front. Capping will hold for much of the day, but a few midday storms associated with warm advection may produce hail over parts of northern MN/WI. By around 21Z, storms are likely to develop along the length of the front, which will be oriented along with the deep-layer mean wind. Ample moisture for downdrafts should favor a few clusters or line segments producing damaging wind gusts, and areas of hail may occur as well with the more cellular storms. The most favorable low-level shear for a tornado risk will be over northern MN/WI, and a couple tornadoes cannot be ruled out as the air near the warm front becomes surface based. ..Jewell.. 06/17/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible Tuesday afternoon over parts of the upper Mississippi Valley southwestward into parts of Nebraska and Kansas. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will move east across the northern High Plains on Tuesday, with a 70+ kt midlevel speed max moving across the Dakotas and MN. Gradual height falls will occur over this region, despite the strong upper ridge over the East. Midlevel wind speeds of 30 kt will exist as far south as KS. At the surface, low pressure will move from the eastern Dakotas into northern MN and western Ontario, with a cold front extending southwest from the low across MN, NE, and KS. A moist and unstable air mass will exist ahead of the front, with the strongest overall shear profiles over the upper MS Valley during the afternoon and evening. Elsewhere, substantial convection will develop into the western Gulf of Mexico, with most of the stronger instability remaining offshore the TX Coast. ...Upper MS Valley southwestward into KS... Given the strong upper ridge over the East, the northern plains trough will move slowly east, with most of the strong flow likely remaining behind the cold front. Still, moderate instability will develop with robust boundary layer moisture, with MUCAPE over 2000 J/kg ahead of the front. Capping will hold for much of the day, but a few midday storms associated with warm advection may produce hail over parts of northern MN/WI. By around 21Z, storms are likely to develop along the length of the front, which will be oriented along with the deep-layer mean wind. Ample moisture for downdrafts should favor a few clusters or line segments producing damaging wind gusts, and areas of hail may occur as well with the more cellular storms. The most favorable low-level shear for a tornado risk will be over northern MN/WI, and a couple tornadoes cannot be ruled out as the air near the warm front becomes surface based. ..Jewell.. 06/17/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible Tuesday afternoon over parts of the upper Mississippi Valley southwestward into parts of Nebraska and Kansas. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will move east across the northern High Plains on Tuesday, with a 70+ kt midlevel speed max moving across the Dakotas and MN. Gradual height falls will occur over this region, despite the strong upper ridge over the East. Midlevel wind speeds of 30 kt will exist as far south as KS. At the surface, low pressure will move from the eastern Dakotas into northern MN and western Ontario, with a cold front extending southwest from the low across MN, NE, and KS. A moist and unstable air mass will exist ahead of the front, with the strongest overall shear profiles over the upper MS Valley during the afternoon and evening. Elsewhere, substantial convection will develop into the western Gulf of Mexico, with most of the stronger instability remaining offshore the TX Coast. ...Upper MS Valley southwestward into KS... Given the strong upper ridge over the East, the northern plains trough will move slowly east, with most of the strong flow likely remaining behind the cold front. Still, moderate instability will develop with robust boundary layer moisture, with MUCAPE over 2000 J/kg ahead of the front. Capping will hold for much of the day, but a few midday storms associated with warm advection may produce hail over parts of northern MN/WI. By around 21Z, storms are likely to develop along the length of the front, which will be oriented along with the deep-layer mean wind. Ample moisture for downdrafts should favor a few clusters or line segments producing damaging wind gusts, and areas of hail may occur as well with the more cellular storms. The most favorable low-level shear for a tornado risk will be over northern MN/WI, and a couple tornadoes cannot be ruled out as the air near the warm front becomes surface based. ..Jewell.. 06/17/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible Tuesday afternoon over parts of the upper Mississippi Valley southwestward into parts of Nebraska and Kansas. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will move east across the northern High Plains on Tuesday, with a 70+ kt midlevel speed max moving across the Dakotas and MN. Gradual height falls will occur over this region, despite the strong upper ridge over the East. Midlevel wind speeds of 30 kt will exist as far south as KS. At the surface, low pressure will move from the eastern Dakotas into northern MN and western Ontario, with a cold front extending southwest from the low across MN, NE, and KS. A moist and unstable air mass will exist ahead of the front, with the strongest overall shear profiles over the upper MS Valley during the afternoon and evening. Elsewhere, substantial convection will develop into the western Gulf of Mexico, with most of the stronger instability remaining offshore the TX Coast. ...Upper MS Valley southwestward into KS... Given the strong upper ridge over the East, the northern plains trough will move slowly east, with most of the strong flow likely remaining behind the cold front. Still, moderate instability will develop with robust boundary layer moisture, with MUCAPE over 2000 J/kg ahead of the front. Capping will hold for much of the day, but a few midday storms associated with warm advection may produce hail over parts of northern MN/WI. By around 21Z, storms are likely to develop along the length of the front, which will be oriented along with the deep-layer mean wind. Ample moisture for downdrafts should favor a few clusters or line segments producing damaging wind gusts, and areas of hail may occur as well with the more cellular storms. The most favorable low-level shear for a tornado risk will be over northern MN/WI, and a couple tornadoes cannot be ruled out as the air near the warm front becomes surface based. ..Jewell.. 06/17/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible Tuesday afternoon over parts of the upper Mississippi Valley southwestward into parts of Nebraska and Kansas. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will move east across the northern High Plains on Tuesday, with a 70+ kt midlevel speed max moving across the Dakotas and MN. Gradual height falls will occur over this region, despite the strong upper ridge over the East. Midlevel wind speeds of 30 kt will exist as far south as KS. At the surface, low pressure will move from the eastern Dakotas into northern MN and western Ontario, with a cold front extending southwest from the low across MN, NE, and KS. A moist and unstable air mass will exist ahead of the front, with the strongest overall shear profiles over the upper MS Valley during the afternoon and evening. Elsewhere, substantial convection will develop into the western Gulf of Mexico, with most of the stronger instability remaining offshore the TX Coast. ...Upper MS Valley southwestward into KS... Given the strong upper ridge over the East, the northern plains trough will move slowly east, with most of the strong flow likely remaining behind the cold front. Still, moderate instability will develop with robust boundary layer moisture, with MUCAPE over 2000 J/kg ahead of the front. Capping will hold for much of the day, but a few midday storms associated with warm advection may produce hail over parts of northern MN/WI. By around 21Z, storms are likely to develop along the length of the front, which will be oriented along with the deep-layer mean wind. Ample moisture for downdrafts should favor a few clusters or line segments producing damaging wind gusts, and areas of hail may occur as well with the more cellular storms. The most favorable low-level shear for a tornado risk will be over northern MN/WI, and a couple tornadoes cannot be ruled out as the air near the warm front becomes surface based. ..Jewell.. 06/17/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible Tuesday afternoon over parts of the upper Mississippi Valley southwestward into parts of Nebraska and Kansas. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will move east across the northern High Plains on Tuesday, with a 70+ kt midlevel speed max moving across the Dakotas and MN. Gradual height falls will occur over this region, despite the strong upper ridge over the East. Midlevel wind speeds of 30 kt will exist as far south as KS. At the surface, low pressure will move from the eastern Dakotas into northern MN and western Ontario, with a cold front extending southwest from the low across MN, NE, and KS. A moist and unstable air mass will exist ahead of the front, with the strongest overall shear profiles over the upper MS Valley during the afternoon and evening. Elsewhere, substantial convection will develop into the western Gulf of Mexico, with most of the stronger instability remaining offshore the TX Coast. ...Upper MS Valley southwestward into KS... Given the strong upper ridge over the East, the northern plains trough will move slowly east, with most of the strong flow likely remaining behind the cold front. Still, moderate instability will develop with robust boundary layer moisture, with MUCAPE over 2000 J/kg ahead of the front. Capping will hold for much of the day, but a few midday storms associated with warm advection may produce hail over parts of northern MN/WI. By around 21Z, storms are likely to develop along the length of the front, which will be oriented along with the deep-layer mean wind. Ample moisture for downdrafts should favor a few clusters or line segments producing damaging wind gusts, and areas of hail may occur as well with the more cellular storms. The most favorable low-level shear for a tornado risk will be over northern MN/WI, and a couple tornadoes cannot be ruled out as the air near the warm front becomes surface based. ..Jewell.. 06/17/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible Tuesday afternoon over parts of the upper Mississippi Valley southwestward into parts of Nebraska and Kansas. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will move east across the northern High Plains on Tuesday, with a 70+ kt midlevel speed max moving across the Dakotas and MN. Gradual height falls will occur over this region, despite the strong upper ridge over the East. Midlevel wind speeds of 30 kt will exist as far south as KS. At the surface, low pressure will move from the eastern Dakotas into northern MN and western Ontario, with a cold front extending southwest from the low across MN, NE, and KS. A moist and unstable air mass will exist ahead of the front, with the strongest overall shear profiles over the upper MS Valley during the afternoon and evening. Elsewhere, substantial convection will develop into the western Gulf of Mexico, with most of the stronger instability remaining offshore the TX Coast. ...Upper MS Valley southwestward into KS... Given the strong upper ridge over the East, the northern plains trough will move slowly east, with most of the strong flow likely remaining behind the cold front. Still, moderate instability will develop with robust boundary layer moisture, with MUCAPE over 2000 J/kg ahead of the front. Capping will hold for much of the day, but a few midday storms associated with warm advection may produce hail over parts of northern MN/WI. By around 21Z, storms are likely to develop along the length of the front, which will be oriented along with the deep-layer mean wind. Ample moisture for downdrafts should favor a few clusters or line segments producing damaging wind gusts, and areas of hail may occur as well with the more cellular storms. The most favorable low-level shear for a tornado risk will be over northern MN/WI, and a couple tornadoes cannot be ruled out as the air near the warm front becomes surface based. ..Jewell.. 06/17/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible Tuesday afternoon over parts of the upper Mississippi Valley southwestward into parts of Nebraska and Kansas. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will move east across the northern High Plains on Tuesday, with a 70+ kt midlevel speed max moving across the Dakotas and MN. Gradual height falls will occur over this region, despite the strong upper ridge over the East. Midlevel wind speeds of 30 kt will exist as far south as KS. At the surface, low pressure will move from the eastern Dakotas into northern MN and western Ontario, with a cold front extending southwest from the low across MN, NE, and KS. A moist and unstable air mass will exist ahead of the front, with the strongest overall shear profiles over the upper MS Valley during the afternoon and evening. Elsewhere, substantial convection will develop into the western Gulf of Mexico, with most of the stronger instability remaining offshore the TX Coast. ...Upper MS Valley southwestward into KS... Given the strong upper ridge over the East, the northern plains trough will move slowly east, with most of the strong flow likely remaining behind the cold front. Still, moderate instability will develop with robust boundary layer moisture, with MUCAPE over 2000 J/kg ahead of the front. Capping will hold for much of the day, but a few midday storms associated with warm advection may produce hail over parts of northern MN/WI. By around 21Z, storms are likely to develop along the length of the front, which will be oriented along with the deep-layer mean wind. Ample moisture for downdrafts should favor a few clusters or line segments producing damaging wind gusts, and areas of hail may occur as well with the more cellular storms. The most favorable low-level shear for a tornado risk will be over northern MN/WI, and a couple tornadoes cannot be ruled out as the air near the warm front becomes surface based. ..Jewell.. 06/17/2024 Read more

MD 1296 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 426... FOR WESTERN/NORTHERN NE...SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST SD...SOUTHWEST MN...EXTREME NORTHWEST IA
Mesoscale Discussion 1296 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Areas affected...Western/northern NE...south-central/southeast SD...southwest MN...extreme northwest IA Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 426... Valid 170434Z - 170600Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 426 continues. SUMMARY...The threat for hail and perhaps isolated strong/severe gusts will continue overnight. DISCUSSION...A band of elevated convection that earlier erupted across northern NE/southern SD has evolved into an elongated storm cluster with occasional embedded elevated supercells. Some recent intensification has also been noted with a storm cluster moving into the southeast part of the NE Panhandle from northeast CO. Moderate to strong elevated buoyancy and sufficient deep-layer shear will support occasionally organized storms into the overnight hours. A strong low-level jet will continue to support rather widespread storm coverage, with a tendency toward a cluster and perhaps eventually a linear mode. This mode evolution may not be ideal for a more organized hail threat, but very steep midlevel lapse rates will result in occasional large-hail potential with the stronger embedded cells. Isolated strong to severe gusts will also be possible, especially if organized upscale growth occurs. Some severe threat may spread into southern MN and far northwest IA with time, and eventual downstream watch issuance is possible if observational trends support maintenance of an organized severe-thunderstorm threat. ..Dean/Smith.. 06/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MPX...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF...UNR...CYS... LAT...LON 42570349 43619957 44339729 45089478 44629420 44009395 42749751 41830029 41140165 41080267 41210340 42570349 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across the central and northern Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley. ...Central/Northern Plains-upper MS Valley... Strong upper trough is currently located over the Pacific Northwest. This feature is forecast to shift into the northern inter mountain region by mid day, then into the northern Rockies by 18/00z, as an 80kt 500mb speed max rotates through the trough to near the ID/WY border. This is a very dynamic trough and latest model guidance suggests a surface low will be well identifiable over central WY by mid day. As the upper trough approaches the northern Plains late in the period, surface low should reposition itself downstream and track from the NE Panhandle into southeast ND by sunrise Tuesday. This evolution will encourage a warm front to advance north across the upper MS Valley during the latter half of the period, though warm-advection precipitation may slow its northward advance a bit. Early this morning, a notable uptick in warm-advection convection is observed across the central Plains from western NE into southeast SD. This activity should spread/develop northeast along/north of the warm front across southern MN into the upper Great Lakes region. Elevated convection may pose a risk for hail. While the primary concern for thunderstorms will be along the cool side of the boundary, strong heating south of the front will allow surface parcels to approach their convective temperatures. Forecast soundings suggest negligible CINH will be noted across southeast MN into central WI along the boundary. If thunderstorms can evolve, deep-layer shear may support supercell development. Have adjusted SLGT risk along the warm front to account for both elevated and potentially warm sector storms. Upstream across the High Plains, strong boundary-layer heating is expected across the central High Plains of eastern CO into southwest NE. As temperatures warm into the lower 90s convective temperatures will be breached and isolated supercells should develop. Forecast soundings exhibit substantial SBCAPE (>3000 J/kg) and steep lapse rates, along with favorable shear for sustained rotating updrafts. Very large hail may accompany this activity. Some tornado threat will also be noted with these storms. Strong dynamic forcing will encourage convection to develop across the High Plains of northeast WY/southeast MT immediately ahead of the surging cold front. This activity will spread northeast ahead of the short wave into the Dakotas during the overnight hours. After sunset, marked increase in the LLJ is expected across the Plains from eastern NE into western MN. Severe threat will shift into the upper Red River Valley by the end of the period. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 06/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across the central and northern Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley. ...Central/Northern Plains-upper MS Valley... Strong upper trough is currently located over the Pacific Northwest. This feature is forecast to shift into the northern inter mountain region by mid day, then into the northern Rockies by 18/00z, as an 80kt 500mb speed max rotates through the trough to near the ID/WY border. This is a very dynamic trough and latest model guidance suggests a surface low will be well identifiable over central WY by mid day. As the upper trough approaches the northern Plains late in the period, surface low should reposition itself downstream and track from the NE Panhandle into southeast ND by sunrise Tuesday. This evolution will encourage a warm front to advance north across the upper MS Valley during the latter half of the period, though warm-advection precipitation may slow its northward advance a bit. Early this morning, a notable uptick in warm-advection convection is observed across the central Plains from western NE into southeast SD. This activity should spread/develop northeast along/north of the warm front across southern MN into the upper Great Lakes region. Elevated convection may pose a risk for hail. While the primary concern for thunderstorms will be along the cool side of the boundary, strong heating south of the front will allow surface parcels to approach their convective temperatures. Forecast soundings suggest negligible CINH will be noted across southeast MN into central WI along the boundary. If thunderstorms can evolve, deep-layer shear may support supercell development. Have adjusted SLGT risk along the warm front to account for both elevated and potentially warm sector storms. Upstream across the High Plains, strong boundary-layer heating is expected across the central High Plains of eastern CO into southwest NE. As temperatures warm into the lower 90s convective temperatures will be breached and isolated supercells should develop. Forecast soundings exhibit substantial SBCAPE (>3000 J/kg) and steep lapse rates, along with favorable shear for sustained rotating updrafts. Very large hail may accompany this activity. Some tornado threat will also be noted with these storms. Strong dynamic forcing will encourage convection to develop across the High Plains of northeast WY/southeast MT immediately ahead of the surging cold front. This activity will spread northeast ahead of the short wave into the Dakotas during the overnight hours. After sunset, marked increase in the LLJ is expected across the Plains from eastern NE into western MN. Severe threat will shift into the upper Red River Valley by the end of the period. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 06/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across the central and northern Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley. ...Central/Northern Plains-upper MS Valley... Strong upper trough is currently located over the Pacific Northwest. This feature is forecast to shift into the northern inter mountain region by mid day, then into the northern Rockies by 18/00z, as an 80kt 500mb speed max rotates through the trough to near the ID/WY border. This is a very dynamic trough and latest model guidance suggests a surface low will be well identifiable over central WY by mid day. As the upper trough approaches the northern Plains late in the period, surface low should reposition itself downstream and track from the NE Panhandle into southeast ND by sunrise Tuesday. This evolution will encourage a warm front to advance north across the upper MS Valley during the latter half of the period, though warm-advection precipitation may slow its northward advance a bit. Early this morning, a notable uptick in warm-advection convection is observed across the central Plains from western NE into southeast SD. This activity should spread/develop northeast along/north of the warm front across southern MN into the upper Great Lakes region. Elevated convection may pose a risk for hail. While the primary concern for thunderstorms will be along the cool side of the boundary, strong heating south of the front will allow surface parcels to approach their convective temperatures. Forecast soundings suggest negligible CINH will be noted across southeast MN into central WI along the boundary. If thunderstorms can evolve, deep-layer shear may support supercell development. Have adjusted SLGT risk along the warm front to account for both elevated and potentially warm sector storms. Upstream across the High Plains, strong boundary-layer heating is expected across the central High Plains of eastern CO into southwest NE. As temperatures warm into the lower 90s convective temperatures will be breached and isolated supercells should develop. Forecast soundings exhibit substantial SBCAPE (>3000 J/kg) and steep lapse rates, along with favorable shear for sustained rotating updrafts. Very large hail may accompany this activity. Some tornado threat will also be noted with these storms. Strong dynamic forcing will encourage convection to develop across the High Plains of northeast WY/southeast MT immediately ahead of the surging cold front. This activity will spread northeast ahead of the short wave into the Dakotas during the overnight hours. After sunset, marked increase in the LLJ is expected across the Plains from eastern NE into western MN. Severe threat will shift into the upper Red River Valley by the end of the period. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 06/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across the central and northern Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley. ...Central/Northern Plains-upper MS Valley... Strong upper trough is currently located over the Pacific Northwest. This feature is forecast to shift into the northern inter mountain region by mid day, then into the northern Rockies by 18/00z, as an 80kt 500mb speed max rotates through the trough to near the ID/WY border. This is a very dynamic trough and latest model guidance suggests a surface low will be well identifiable over central WY by mid day. As the upper trough approaches the northern Plains late in the period, surface low should reposition itself downstream and track from the NE Panhandle into southeast ND by sunrise Tuesday. This evolution will encourage a warm front to advance north across the upper MS Valley during the latter half of the period, though warm-advection precipitation may slow its northward advance a bit. Early this morning, a notable uptick in warm-advection convection is observed across the central Plains from western NE into southeast SD. This activity should spread/develop northeast along/north of the warm front across southern MN into the upper Great Lakes region. Elevated convection may pose a risk for hail. While the primary concern for thunderstorms will be along the cool side of the boundary, strong heating south of the front will allow surface parcels to approach their convective temperatures. Forecast soundings suggest negligible CINH will be noted across southeast MN into central WI along the boundary. If thunderstorms can evolve, deep-layer shear may support supercell development. Have adjusted SLGT risk along the warm front to account for both elevated and potentially warm sector storms. Upstream across the High Plains, strong boundary-layer heating is expected across the central High Plains of eastern CO into southwest NE. As temperatures warm into the lower 90s convective temperatures will be breached and isolated supercells should develop. Forecast soundings exhibit substantial SBCAPE (>3000 J/kg) and steep lapse rates, along with favorable shear for sustained rotating updrafts. Very large hail may accompany this activity. Some tornado threat will also be noted with these storms. Strong dynamic forcing will encourage convection to develop across the High Plains of northeast WY/southeast MT immediately ahead of the surging cold front. This activity will spread northeast ahead of the short wave into the Dakotas during the overnight hours. After sunset, marked increase in the LLJ is expected across the Plains from eastern NE into western MN. Severe threat will shift into the upper Red River Valley by the end of the period. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 06/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across the central and northern Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley. ...Central/Northern Plains-upper MS Valley... Strong upper trough is currently located over the Pacific Northwest. This feature is forecast to shift into the northern inter mountain region by mid day, then into the northern Rockies by 18/00z, as an 80kt 500mb speed max rotates through the trough to near the ID/WY border. This is a very dynamic trough and latest model guidance suggests a surface low will be well identifiable over central WY by mid day. As the upper trough approaches the northern Plains late in the period, surface low should reposition itself downstream and track from the NE Panhandle into southeast ND by sunrise Tuesday. This evolution will encourage a warm front to advance north across the upper MS Valley during the latter half of the period, though warm-advection precipitation may slow its northward advance a bit. Early this morning, a notable uptick in warm-advection convection is observed across the central Plains from western NE into southeast SD. This activity should spread/develop northeast along/north of the warm front across southern MN into the upper Great Lakes region. Elevated convection may pose a risk for hail. While the primary concern for thunderstorms will be along the cool side of the boundary, strong heating south of the front will allow surface parcels to approach their convective temperatures. Forecast soundings suggest negligible CINH will be noted across southeast MN into central WI along the boundary. If thunderstorms can evolve, deep-layer shear may support supercell development. Have adjusted SLGT risk along the warm front to account for both elevated and potentially warm sector storms. Upstream across the High Plains, strong boundary-layer heating is expected across the central High Plains of eastern CO into southwest NE. As temperatures warm into the lower 90s convective temperatures will be breached and isolated supercells should develop. Forecast soundings exhibit substantial SBCAPE (>3000 J/kg) and steep lapse rates, along with favorable shear for sustained rotating updrafts. Very large hail may accompany this activity. Some tornado threat will also be noted with these storms. Strong dynamic forcing will encourage convection to develop across the High Plains of northeast WY/southeast MT immediately ahead of the surging cold front. This activity will spread northeast ahead of the short wave into the Dakotas during the overnight hours. After sunset, marked increase in the LLJ is expected across the Plains from eastern NE into western MN. Severe threat will shift into the upper Red River Valley by the end of the period. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 06/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across the central and northern Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley. ...Central/Northern Plains-upper MS Valley... Strong upper trough is currently located over the Pacific Northwest. This feature is forecast to shift into the northern inter mountain region by mid day, then into the northern Rockies by 18/00z, as an 80kt 500mb speed max rotates through the trough to near the ID/WY border. This is a very dynamic trough and latest model guidance suggests a surface low will be well identifiable over central WY by mid day. As the upper trough approaches the northern Plains late in the period, surface low should reposition itself downstream and track from the NE Panhandle into southeast ND by sunrise Tuesday. This evolution will encourage a warm front to advance north across the upper MS Valley during the latter half of the period, though warm-advection precipitation may slow its northward advance a bit. Early this morning, a notable uptick in warm-advection convection is observed across the central Plains from western NE into southeast SD. This activity should spread/develop northeast along/north of the warm front across southern MN into the upper Great Lakes region. Elevated convection may pose a risk for hail. While the primary concern for thunderstorms will be along the cool side of the boundary, strong heating south of the front will allow surface parcels to approach their convective temperatures. Forecast soundings suggest negligible CINH will be noted across southeast MN into central WI along the boundary. If thunderstorms can evolve, deep-layer shear may support supercell development. Have adjusted SLGT risk along the warm front to account for both elevated and potentially warm sector storms. Upstream across the High Plains, strong boundary-layer heating is expected across the central High Plains of eastern CO into southwest NE. As temperatures warm into the lower 90s convective temperatures will be breached and isolated supercells should develop. Forecast soundings exhibit substantial SBCAPE (>3000 J/kg) and steep lapse rates, along with favorable shear for sustained rotating updrafts. Very large hail may accompany this activity. Some tornado threat will also be noted with these storms. Strong dynamic forcing will encourage convection to develop across the High Plains of northeast WY/southeast MT immediately ahead of the surging cold front. This activity will spread northeast ahead of the short wave into the Dakotas during the overnight hours. After sunset, marked increase in the LLJ is expected across the Plains from eastern NE into western MN. Severe threat will shift into the upper Red River Valley by the end of the period. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 06/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across the central and northern Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley. ...Central/Northern Plains-upper MS Valley... Strong upper trough is currently located over the Pacific Northwest. This feature is forecast to shift into the northern inter mountain region by mid day, then into the northern Rockies by 18/00z, as an 80kt 500mb speed max rotates through the trough to near the ID/WY border. This is a very dynamic trough and latest model guidance suggests a surface low will be well identifiable over central WY by mid day. As the upper trough approaches the northern Plains late in the period, surface low should reposition itself downstream and track from the NE Panhandle into southeast ND by sunrise Tuesday. This evolution will encourage a warm front to advance north across the upper MS Valley during the latter half of the period, though warm-advection precipitation may slow its northward advance a bit. Early this morning, a notable uptick in warm-advection convection is observed across the central Plains from western NE into southeast SD. This activity should spread/develop northeast along/north of the warm front across southern MN into the upper Great Lakes region. Elevated convection may pose a risk for hail. While the primary concern for thunderstorms will be along the cool side of the boundary, strong heating south of the front will allow surface parcels to approach their convective temperatures. Forecast soundings suggest negligible CINH will be noted across southeast MN into central WI along the boundary. If thunderstorms can evolve, deep-layer shear may support supercell development. Have adjusted SLGT risk along the warm front to account for both elevated and potentially warm sector storms. Upstream across the High Plains, strong boundary-layer heating is expected across the central High Plains of eastern CO into southwest NE. As temperatures warm into the lower 90s convective temperatures will be breached and isolated supercells should develop. Forecast soundings exhibit substantial SBCAPE (>3000 J/kg) and steep lapse rates, along with favorable shear for sustained rotating updrafts. Very large hail may accompany this activity. Some tornado threat will also be noted with these storms. Strong dynamic forcing will encourage convection to develop across the High Plains of northeast WY/southeast MT immediately ahead of the surging cold front. This activity will spread northeast ahead of the short wave into the Dakotas during the overnight hours. After sunset, marked increase in the LLJ is expected across the Plains from eastern NE into western MN. Severe threat will shift into the upper Red River Valley by the end of the period. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 06/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across the central and northern Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley. ...Central/Northern Plains-upper MS Valley... Strong upper trough is currently located over the Pacific Northwest. This feature is forecast to shift into the northern inter mountain region by mid day, then into the northern Rockies by 18/00z, as an 80kt 500mb speed max rotates through the trough to near the ID/WY border. This is a very dynamic trough and latest model guidance suggests a surface low will be well identifiable over central WY by mid day. As the upper trough approaches the northern Plains late in the period, surface low should reposition itself downstream and track from the NE Panhandle into southeast ND by sunrise Tuesday. This evolution will encourage a warm front to advance north across the upper MS Valley during the latter half of the period, though warm-advection precipitation may slow its northward advance a bit. Early this morning, a notable uptick in warm-advection convection is observed across the central Plains from western NE into southeast SD. This activity should spread/develop northeast along/north of the warm front across southern MN into the upper Great Lakes region. Elevated convection may pose a risk for hail. While the primary concern for thunderstorms will be along the cool side of the boundary, strong heating south of the front will allow surface parcels to approach their convective temperatures. Forecast soundings suggest negligible CINH will be noted across southeast MN into central WI along the boundary. If thunderstorms can evolve, deep-layer shear may support supercell development. Have adjusted SLGT risk along the warm front to account for both elevated and potentially warm sector storms. Upstream across the High Plains, strong boundary-layer heating is expected across the central High Plains of eastern CO into southwest NE. As temperatures warm into the lower 90s convective temperatures will be breached and isolated supercells should develop. Forecast soundings exhibit substantial SBCAPE (>3000 J/kg) and steep lapse rates, along with favorable shear for sustained rotating updrafts. Very large hail may accompany this activity. Some tornado threat will also be noted with these storms. Strong dynamic forcing will encourage convection to develop across the High Plains of northeast WY/southeast MT immediately ahead of the surging cold front. This activity will spread northeast ahead of the short wave into the Dakotas during the overnight hours. After sunset, marked increase in the LLJ is expected across the Plains from eastern NE into western MN. Severe threat will shift into the upper Red River Valley by the end of the period. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 06/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across the central and northern Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley. ...Central/Northern Plains-upper MS Valley... Strong upper trough is currently located over the Pacific Northwest. This feature is forecast to shift into the northern inter mountain region by mid day, then into the northern Rockies by 18/00z, as an 80kt 500mb speed max rotates through the trough to near the ID/WY border. This is a very dynamic trough and latest model guidance suggests a surface low will be well identifiable over central WY by mid day. As the upper trough approaches the northern Plains late in the period, surface low should reposition itself downstream and track from the NE Panhandle into southeast ND by sunrise Tuesday. This evolution will encourage a warm front to advance north across the upper MS Valley during the latter half of the period, though warm-advection precipitation may slow its northward advance a bit. Early this morning, a notable uptick in warm-advection convection is observed across the central Plains from western NE into southeast SD. This activity should spread/develop northeast along/north of the warm front across southern MN into the upper Great Lakes region. Elevated convection may pose a risk for hail. While the primary concern for thunderstorms will be along the cool side of the boundary, strong heating south of the front will allow surface parcels to approach their convective temperatures. Forecast soundings suggest negligible CINH will be noted across southeast MN into central WI along the boundary. If thunderstorms can evolve, deep-layer shear may support supercell development. Have adjusted SLGT risk along the warm front to account for both elevated and potentially warm sector storms. Upstream across the High Plains, strong boundary-layer heating is expected across the central High Plains of eastern CO into southwest NE. As temperatures warm into the lower 90s convective temperatures will be breached and isolated supercells should develop. Forecast soundings exhibit substantial SBCAPE (>3000 J/kg) and steep lapse rates, along with favorable shear for sustained rotating updrafts. Very large hail may accompany this activity. Some tornado threat will also be noted with these storms. Strong dynamic forcing will encourage convection to develop across the High Plains of northeast WY/southeast MT immediately ahead of the surging cold front. This activity will spread northeast ahead of the short wave into the Dakotas during the overnight hours. After sunset, marked increase in the LLJ is expected across the Plains from eastern NE into western MN. Severe threat will shift into the upper Red River Valley by the end of the period. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 06/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across the central and northern Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley. ...Central/Northern Plains-upper MS Valley... Strong upper trough is currently located over the Pacific Northwest. This feature is forecast to shift into the northern inter mountain region by mid day, then into the northern Rockies by 18/00z, as an 80kt 500mb speed max rotates through the trough to near the ID/WY border. This is a very dynamic trough and latest model guidance suggests a surface low will be well identifiable over central WY by mid day. As the upper trough approaches the northern Plains late in the period, surface low should reposition itself downstream and track from the NE Panhandle into southeast ND by sunrise Tuesday. This evolution will encourage a warm front to advance north across the upper MS Valley during the latter half of the period, though warm-advection precipitation may slow its northward advance a bit. Early this morning, a notable uptick in warm-advection convection is observed across the central Plains from western NE into southeast SD. This activity should spread/develop northeast along/north of the warm front across southern MN into the upper Great Lakes region. Elevated convection may pose a risk for hail. While the primary concern for thunderstorms will be along the cool side of the boundary, strong heating south of the front will allow surface parcels to approach their convective temperatures. Forecast soundings suggest negligible CINH will be noted across southeast MN into central WI along the boundary. If thunderstorms can evolve, deep-layer shear may support supercell development. Have adjusted SLGT risk along the warm front to account for both elevated and potentially warm sector storms. Upstream across the High Plains, strong boundary-layer heating is expected across the central High Plains of eastern CO into southwest NE. As temperatures warm into the lower 90s convective temperatures will be breached and isolated supercells should develop. Forecast soundings exhibit substantial SBCAPE (>3000 J/kg) and steep lapse rates, along with favorable shear for sustained rotating updrafts. Very large hail may accompany this activity. Some tornado threat will also be noted with these storms. Strong dynamic forcing will encourage convection to develop across the High Plains of northeast WY/southeast MT immediately ahead of the surging cold front. This activity will spread northeast ahead of the short wave into the Dakotas during the overnight hours. After sunset, marked increase in the LLJ is expected across the Plains from eastern NE into western MN. Severe threat will shift into the upper Red River Valley by the end of the period. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 06/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across the central and northern Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley. ...Central/Northern Plains-upper MS Valley... Strong upper trough is currently located over the Pacific Northwest. This feature is forecast to shift into the northern inter mountain region by mid day, then into the northern Rockies by 18/00z, as an 80kt 500mb speed max rotates through the trough to near the ID/WY border. This is a very dynamic trough and latest model guidance suggests a surface low will be well identifiable over central WY by mid day. As the upper trough approaches the northern Plains late in the period, surface low should reposition itself downstream and track from the NE Panhandle into southeast ND by sunrise Tuesday. This evolution will encourage a warm front to advance north across the upper MS Valley during the latter half of the period, though warm-advection precipitation may slow its northward advance a bit. Early this morning, a notable uptick in warm-advection convection is observed across the central Plains from western NE into southeast SD. This activity should spread/develop northeast along/north of the warm front across southern MN into the upper Great Lakes region. Elevated convection may pose a risk for hail. While the primary concern for thunderstorms will be along the cool side of the boundary, strong heating south of the front will allow surface parcels to approach their convective temperatures. Forecast soundings suggest negligible CINH will be noted across southeast MN into central WI along the boundary. If thunderstorms can evolve, deep-layer shear may support supercell development. Have adjusted SLGT risk along the warm front to account for both elevated and potentially warm sector storms. Upstream across the High Plains, strong boundary-layer heating is expected across the central High Plains of eastern CO into southwest NE. As temperatures warm into the lower 90s convective temperatures will be breached and isolated supercells should develop. Forecast soundings exhibit substantial SBCAPE (>3000 J/kg) and steep lapse rates, along with favorable shear for sustained rotating updrafts. Very large hail may accompany this activity. Some tornado threat will also be noted with these storms. Strong dynamic forcing will encourage convection to develop across the High Plains of northeast WY/southeast MT immediately ahead of the surging cold front. This activity will spread northeast ahead of the short wave into the Dakotas during the overnight hours. After sunset, marked increase in the LLJ is expected across the Plains from eastern NE into western MN. Severe threat will shift into the upper Red River Valley by the end of the period. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 06/17/2024 Read more