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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND COASTAL NC/SC.... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts are possible across the central High Plains this afternoon and evening. A few tornadoes remain possible today and tonight across the coastal Carolinas. The only change for this outlook update is to add a small area of SLGT risk for parts of coastal NC/SC. Isolated tornadoes have occurred this afternoon over parts of these areas, and the potential exists for further development of semi-discrete cells offshore that rotate inland. Shear profiles remain sufficiently strong to support further tornado risk. Please refer to MCD #1858 and WW #610 for further details. ..Hart.. 08/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... Expansive upper ridging will continue across the Southeast and southern Plains today, although some dampening is possible along its northern/northeastern periphery. This dampening will occur as a series of shortwave troughs rotate through the base of the upper troughing extending from the Hudson Bay into the Pacific Northwest. Lead shortwave trough in this series is currently moving across the northern Plains, with another shortwave farther west across the northern Rockies. Eastward progression of the lead shortwave trough will encourage an associated eastward/southeastward push of the cold front that currently extends from far northwestern Ontario into east-central WY. Thunderstorm development is anticipated along this front from the eastern Dakotas and MN into NE. Low-level upslope flow into the central High Plains will also support thunderstorms ahead of this cold front from southwest WY/eastern CO into the central Plains. Farther east, Tropical Storm Debby remain centered off the SC Coast. Steering currents remain weak in its vicinity, with only modest northwesterly progress anticipated throughout much of the period. See latest NHC advisories for track/intensity forecasts for Debby, as well as tropical watches/warnings. ...Central High Plains/Central Plains... Southeasterly low-level, upslope flow will help maintain at least moderate low-level moisture amid strong boundary-layer mixing this afternoon across the central High Plains. General expectation is for dewpoints to be in the mid/upper 50s by 21Z, which should be sufficient for air mass destabilization as temperatures warm into the mid 90s. Glancing ascent from the shortwave trough moving through northern Rockies coupled with orographic effects is expected to result in thunderstorm development across the high terrain, with these storms then moving into the moderately buoyant and sheared airmass downstream. Given the moderate shear (i.e. 0-6 around 40 kt), some more organized and persistent updrafts are possible. High cloud bases and steep low-level lapse rates will also support strong downdrafts with these more persistent storms. Given the close storm proximity and high coverage, there is some chance for cold pool amalgamation, with resulting downstream propagation into more of the central High Plains. Additionally, interaction with the frontal boundary could augment updrafts while also providing a corridor of greater severe-wind potential. Potential for damaging gusts appears high enough to introduce a 15% area from far northeast CO/NE Panhandle southeastward into southwest NE and far northwest KS. Some isolated hail is possible, both with initial development in the vicinity of the high terrain as well as any post-frontal development across the central High Plains. Isolated hail is also possible with any initial development along the front farther east from far southwest MN/southeast SD into central NE. ...Coastal Carolinas/TS Debby... As mentioned in MCD #1857, the near-term tornado risk along the coastal Carolinas associated with Debby is low, owing to limited destabilization and poor low-level lapse rates. Even so, rain bands will continue to wrap around the system throughout the day, and, given the strong low-level shear in place, any deeper, more persistent convective cores may be able to produce tornadoes. A relatively greater (but still quite low) threat may be able to develop across the Outer Banks vicinity if pockets of heating can occur within any cloud breaks. As the system gradually moves northwestward tonight, the loss of daytime heating suggests the tornado threat may become more confined closer to the center of the system over coastal northeast SC and coastal southern NC. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND COASTAL NC/SC.... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts are possible across the central High Plains this afternoon and evening. A few tornadoes remain possible today and tonight across the coastal Carolinas. The only change for this outlook update is to add a small area of SLGT risk for parts of coastal NC/SC. Isolated tornadoes have occurred this afternoon over parts of these areas, and the potential exists for further development of semi-discrete cells offshore that rotate inland. Shear profiles remain sufficiently strong to support further tornado risk. Please refer to MCD #1858 and WW #610 for further details. ..Hart.. 08/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... Expansive upper ridging will continue across the Southeast and southern Plains today, although some dampening is possible along its northern/northeastern periphery. This dampening will occur as a series of shortwave troughs rotate through the base of the upper troughing extending from the Hudson Bay into the Pacific Northwest. Lead shortwave trough in this series is currently moving across the northern Plains, with another shortwave farther west across the northern Rockies. Eastward progression of the lead shortwave trough will encourage an associated eastward/southeastward push of the cold front that currently extends from far northwestern Ontario into east-central WY. Thunderstorm development is anticipated along this front from the eastern Dakotas and MN into NE. Low-level upslope flow into the central High Plains will also support thunderstorms ahead of this cold front from southwest WY/eastern CO into the central Plains. Farther east, Tropical Storm Debby remain centered off the SC Coast. Steering currents remain weak in its vicinity, with only modest northwesterly progress anticipated throughout much of the period. See latest NHC advisories for track/intensity forecasts for Debby, as well as tropical watches/warnings. ...Central High Plains/Central Plains... Southeasterly low-level, upslope flow will help maintain at least moderate low-level moisture amid strong boundary-layer mixing this afternoon across the central High Plains. General expectation is for dewpoints to be in the mid/upper 50s by 21Z, which should be sufficient for air mass destabilization as temperatures warm into the mid 90s. Glancing ascent from the shortwave trough moving through northern Rockies coupled with orographic effects is expected to result in thunderstorm development across the high terrain, with these storms then moving into the moderately buoyant and sheared airmass downstream. Given the moderate shear (i.e. 0-6 around 40 kt), some more organized and persistent updrafts are possible. High cloud bases and steep low-level lapse rates will also support strong downdrafts with these more persistent storms. Given the close storm proximity and high coverage, there is some chance for cold pool amalgamation, with resulting downstream propagation into more of the central High Plains. Additionally, interaction with the frontal boundary could augment updrafts while also providing a corridor of greater severe-wind potential. Potential for damaging gusts appears high enough to introduce a 15% area from far northeast CO/NE Panhandle southeastward into southwest NE and far northwest KS. Some isolated hail is possible, both with initial development in the vicinity of the high terrain as well as any post-frontal development across the central High Plains. Isolated hail is also possible with any initial development along the front farther east from far southwest MN/southeast SD into central NE. ...Coastal Carolinas/TS Debby... As mentioned in MCD #1857, the near-term tornado risk along the coastal Carolinas associated with Debby is low, owing to limited destabilization and poor low-level lapse rates. Even so, rain bands will continue to wrap around the system throughout the day, and, given the strong low-level shear in place, any deeper, more persistent convective cores may be able to produce tornadoes. A relatively greater (but still quite low) threat may be able to develop across the Outer Banks vicinity if pockets of heating can occur within any cloud breaks. As the system gradually moves northwestward tonight, the loss of daytime heating suggests the tornado threat may become more confined closer to the center of the system over coastal northeast SC and coastal southern NC. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND COASTAL NC/SC.... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts are possible across the central High Plains this afternoon and evening. A few tornadoes remain possible today and tonight across the coastal Carolinas. The only change for this outlook update is to add a small area of SLGT risk for parts of coastal NC/SC. Isolated tornadoes have occurred this afternoon over parts of these areas, and the potential exists for further development of semi-discrete cells offshore that rotate inland. Shear profiles remain sufficiently strong to support further tornado risk. Please refer to MCD #1858 and WW #610 for further details. ..Hart.. 08/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... Expansive upper ridging will continue across the Southeast and southern Plains today, although some dampening is possible along its northern/northeastern periphery. This dampening will occur as a series of shortwave troughs rotate through the base of the upper troughing extending from the Hudson Bay into the Pacific Northwest. Lead shortwave trough in this series is currently moving across the northern Plains, with another shortwave farther west across the northern Rockies. Eastward progression of the lead shortwave trough will encourage an associated eastward/southeastward push of the cold front that currently extends from far northwestern Ontario into east-central WY. Thunderstorm development is anticipated along this front from the eastern Dakotas and MN into NE. Low-level upslope flow into the central High Plains will also support thunderstorms ahead of this cold front from southwest WY/eastern CO into the central Plains. Farther east, Tropical Storm Debby remain centered off the SC Coast. Steering currents remain weak in its vicinity, with only modest northwesterly progress anticipated throughout much of the period. See latest NHC advisories for track/intensity forecasts for Debby, as well as tropical watches/warnings. ...Central High Plains/Central Plains... Southeasterly low-level, upslope flow will help maintain at least moderate low-level moisture amid strong boundary-layer mixing this afternoon across the central High Plains. General expectation is for dewpoints to be in the mid/upper 50s by 21Z, which should be sufficient for air mass destabilization as temperatures warm into the mid 90s. Glancing ascent from the shortwave trough moving through northern Rockies coupled with orographic effects is expected to result in thunderstorm development across the high terrain, with these storms then moving into the moderately buoyant and sheared airmass downstream. Given the moderate shear (i.e. 0-6 around 40 kt), some more organized and persistent updrafts are possible. High cloud bases and steep low-level lapse rates will also support strong downdrafts with these more persistent storms. Given the close storm proximity and high coverage, there is some chance for cold pool amalgamation, with resulting downstream propagation into more of the central High Plains. Additionally, interaction with the frontal boundary could augment updrafts while also providing a corridor of greater severe-wind potential. Potential for damaging gusts appears high enough to introduce a 15% area from far northeast CO/NE Panhandle southeastward into southwest NE and far northwest KS. Some isolated hail is possible, both with initial development in the vicinity of the high terrain as well as any post-frontal development across the central High Plains. Isolated hail is also possible with any initial development along the front farther east from far southwest MN/southeast SD into central NE. ...Coastal Carolinas/TS Debby... As mentioned in MCD #1857, the near-term tornado risk along the coastal Carolinas associated with Debby is low, owing to limited destabilization and poor low-level lapse rates. Even so, rain bands will continue to wrap around the system throughout the day, and, given the strong low-level shear in place, any deeper, more persistent convective cores may be able to produce tornadoes. A relatively greater (but still quite low) threat may be able to develop across the Outer Banks vicinity if pockets of heating can occur within any cloud breaks. As the system gradually moves northwestward tonight, the loss of daytime heating suggests the tornado threat may become more confined closer to the center of the system over coastal northeast SC and coastal southern NC. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND COASTAL NC/SC.... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts are possible across the central High Plains this afternoon and evening. A few tornadoes remain possible today and tonight across the coastal Carolinas. The only change for this outlook update is to add a small area of SLGT risk for parts of coastal NC/SC. Isolated tornadoes have occurred this afternoon over parts of these areas, and the potential exists for further development of semi-discrete cells offshore that rotate inland. Shear profiles remain sufficiently strong to support further tornado risk. Please refer to MCD #1858 and WW #610 for further details. ..Hart.. 08/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... Expansive upper ridging will continue across the Southeast and southern Plains today, although some dampening is possible along its northern/northeastern periphery. This dampening will occur as a series of shortwave troughs rotate through the base of the upper troughing extending from the Hudson Bay into the Pacific Northwest. Lead shortwave trough in this series is currently moving across the northern Plains, with another shortwave farther west across the northern Rockies. Eastward progression of the lead shortwave trough will encourage an associated eastward/southeastward push of the cold front that currently extends from far northwestern Ontario into east-central WY. Thunderstorm development is anticipated along this front from the eastern Dakotas and MN into NE. Low-level upslope flow into the central High Plains will also support thunderstorms ahead of this cold front from southwest WY/eastern CO into the central Plains. Farther east, Tropical Storm Debby remain centered off the SC Coast. Steering currents remain weak in its vicinity, with only modest northwesterly progress anticipated throughout much of the period. See latest NHC advisories for track/intensity forecasts for Debby, as well as tropical watches/warnings. ...Central High Plains/Central Plains... Southeasterly low-level, upslope flow will help maintain at least moderate low-level moisture amid strong boundary-layer mixing this afternoon across the central High Plains. General expectation is for dewpoints to be in the mid/upper 50s by 21Z, which should be sufficient for air mass destabilization as temperatures warm into the mid 90s. Glancing ascent from the shortwave trough moving through northern Rockies coupled with orographic effects is expected to result in thunderstorm development across the high terrain, with these storms then moving into the moderately buoyant and sheared airmass downstream. Given the moderate shear (i.e. 0-6 around 40 kt), some more organized and persistent updrafts are possible. High cloud bases and steep low-level lapse rates will also support strong downdrafts with these more persistent storms. Given the close storm proximity and high coverage, there is some chance for cold pool amalgamation, with resulting downstream propagation into more of the central High Plains. Additionally, interaction with the frontal boundary could augment updrafts while also providing a corridor of greater severe-wind potential. Potential for damaging gusts appears high enough to introduce a 15% area from far northeast CO/NE Panhandle southeastward into southwest NE and far northwest KS. Some isolated hail is possible, both with initial development in the vicinity of the high terrain as well as any post-frontal development across the central High Plains. Isolated hail is also possible with any initial development along the front farther east from far southwest MN/southeast SD into central NE. ...Coastal Carolinas/TS Debby... As mentioned in MCD #1857, the near-term tornado risk along the coastal Carolinas associated with Debby is low, owing to limited destabilization and poor low-level lapse rates. Even so, rain bands will continue to wrap around the system throughout the day, and, given the strong low-level shear in place, any deeper, more persistent convective cores may be able to produce tornadoes. A relatively greater (but still quite low) threat may be able to develop across the Outer Banks vicinity if pockets of heating can occur within any cloud breaks. As the system gradually moves northwestward tonight, the loss of daytime heating suggests the tornado threat may become more confined closer to the center of the system over coastal northeast SC and coastal southern NC. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND COASTAL NC/SC.... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts are possible across the central High Plains this afternoon and evening. A few tornadoes remain possible today and tonight across the coastal Carolinas. The only change for this outlook update is to add a small area of SLGT risk for parts of coastal NC/SC. Isolated tornadoes have occurred this afternoon over parts of these areas, and the potential exists for further development of semi-discrete cells offshore that rotate inland. Shear profiles remain sufficiently strong to support further tornado risk. Please refer to MCD #1858 and WW #610 for further details. ..Hart.. 08/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... Expansive upper ridging will continue across the Southeast and southern Plains today, although some dampening is possible along its northern/northeastern periphery. This dampening will occur as a series of shortwave troughs rotate through the base of the upper troughing extending from the Hudson Bay into the Pacific Northwest. Lead shortwave trough in this series is currently moving across the northern Plains, with another shortwave farther west across the northern Rockies. Eastward progression of the lead shortwave trough will encourage an associated eastward/southeastward push of the cold front that currently extends from far northwestern Ontario into east-central WY. Thunderstorm development is anticipated along this front from the eastern Dakotas and MN into NE. Low-level upslope flow into the central High Plains will also support thunderstorms ahead of this cold front from southwest WY/eastern CO into the central Plains. Farther east, Tropical Storm Debby remain centered off the SC Coast. Steering currents remain weak in its vicinity, with only modest northwesterly progress anticipated throughout much of the period. See latest NHC advisories for track/intensity forecasts for Debby, as well as tropical watches/warnings. ...Central High Plains/Central Plains... Southeasterly low-level, upslope flow will help maintain at least moderate low-level moisture amid strong boundary-layer mixing this afternoon across the central High Plains. General expectation is for dewpoints to be in the mid/upper 50s by 21Z, which should be sufficient for air mass destabilization as temperatures warm into the mid 90s. Glancing ascent from the shortwave trough moving through northern Rockies coupled with orographic effects is expected to result in thunderstorm development across the high terrain, with these storms then moving into the moderately buoyant and sheared airmass downstream. Given the moderate shear (i.e. 0-6 around 40 kt), some more organized and persistent updrafts are possible. High cloud bases and steep low-level lapse rates will also support strong downdrafts with these more persistent storms. Given the close storm proximity and high coverage, there is some chance for cold pool amalgamation, with resulting downstream propagation into more of the central High Plains. Additionally, interaction with the frontal boundary could augment updrafts while also providing a corridor of greater severe-wind potential. Potential for damaging gusts appears high enough to introduce a 15% area from far northeast CO/NE Panhandle southeastward into southwest NE and far northwest KS. Some isolated hail is possible, both with initial development in the vicinity of the high terrain as well as any post-frontal development across the central High Plains. Isolated hail is also possible with any initial development along the front farther east from far southwest MN/southeast SD into central NE. ...Coastal Carolinas/TS Debby... As mentioned in MCD #1857, the near-term tornado risk along the coastal Carolinas associated with Debby is low, owing to limited destabilization and poor low-level lapse rates. Even so, rain bands will continue to wrap around the system throughout the day, and, given the strong low-level shear in place, any deeper, more persistent convective cores may be able to produce tornadoes. A relatively greater (but still quite low) threat may be able to develop across the Outer Banks vicinity if pockets of heating can occur within any cloud breaks. As the system gradually moves northwestward tonight, the loss of daytime heating suggests the tornado threat may become more confined closer to the center of the system over coastal northeast SC and coastal southern NC. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND COASTAL NC/SC.... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts are possible across the central High Plains this afternoon and evening. A few tornadoes remain possible today and tonight across the coastal Carolinas. The only change for this outlook update is to add a small area of SLGT risk for parts of coastal NC/SC. Isolated tornadoes have occurred this afternoon over parts of these areas, and the potential exists for further development of semi-discrete cells offshore that rotate inland. Shear profiles remain sufficiently strong to support further tornado risk. Please refer to MCD #1858 and WW #610 for further details. ..Hart.. 08/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... Expansive upper ridging will continue across the Southeast and southern Plains today, although some dampening is possible along its northern/northeastern periphery. This dampening will occur as a series of shortwave troughs rotate through the base of the upper troughing extending from the Hudson Bay into the Pacific Northwest. Lead shortwave trough in this series is currently moving across the northern Plains, with another shortwave farther west across the northern Rockies. Eastward progression of the lead shortwave trough will encourage an associated eastward/southeastward push of the cold front that currently extends from far northwestern Ontario into east-central WY. Thunderstorm development is anticipated along this front from the eastern Dakotas and MN into NE. Low-level upslope flow into the central High Plains will also support thunderstorms ahead of this cold front from southwest WY/eastern CO into the central Plains. Farther east, Tropical Storm Debby remain centered off the SC Coast. Steering currents remain weak in its vicinity, with only modest northwesterly progress anticipated throughout much of the period. See latest NHC advisories for track/intensity forecasts for Debby, as well as tropical watches/warnings. ...Central High Plains/Central Plains... Southeasterly low-level, upslope flow will help maintain at least moderate low-level moisture amid strong boundary-layer mixing this afternoon across the central High Plains. General expectation is for dewpoints to be in the mid/upper 50s by 21Z, which should be sufficient for air mass destabilization as temperatures warm into the mid 90s. Glancing ascent from the shortwave trough moving through northern Rockies coupled with orographic effects is expected to result in thunderstorm development across the high terrain, with these storms then moving into the moderately buoyant and sheared airmass downstream. Given the moderate shear (i.e. 0-6 around 40 kt), some more organized and persistent updrafts are possible. High cloud bases and steep low-level lapse rates will also support strong downdrafts with these more persistent storms. Given the close storm proximity and high coverage, there is some chance for cold pool amalgamation, with resulting downstream propagation into more of the central High Plains. Additionally, interaction with the frontal boundary could augment updrafts while also providing a corridor of greater severe-wind potential. Potential for damaging gusts appears high enough to introduce a 15% area from far northeast CO/NE Panhandle southeastward into southwest NE and far northwest KS. Some isolated hail is possible, both with initial development in the vicinity of the high terrain as well as any post-frontal development across the central High Plains. Isolated hail is also possible with any initial development along the front farther east from far southwest MN/southeast SD into central NE. ...Coastal Carolinas/TS Debby... As mentioned in MCD #1857, the near-term tornado risk along the coastal Carolinas associated with Debby is low, owing to limited destabilization and poor low-level lapse rates. Even so, rain bands will continue to wrap around the system throughout the day, and, given the strong low-level shear in place, any deeper, more persistent convective cores may be able to produce tornadoes. A relatively greater (but still quite low) threat may be able to develop across the Outer Banks vicinity if pockets of heating can occur within any cloud breaks. As the system gradually moves northwestward tonight, the loss of daytime heating suggests the tornado threat may become more confined closer to the center of the system over coastal northeast SC and coastal southern NC. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND COASTAL NC/SC.... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts are possible across the central High Plains this afternoon and evening. A few tornadoes remain possible today and tonight across the coastal Carolinas. The only change for this outlook update is to add a small area of SLGT risk for parts of coastal NC/SC. Isolated tornadoes have occurred this afternoon over parts of these areas, and the potential exists for further development of semi-discrete cells offshore that rotate inland. Shear profiles remain sufficiently strong to support further tornado risk. Please refer to MCD #1858 and WW #610 for further details. ..Hart.. 08/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... Expansive upper ridging will continue across the Southeast and southern Plains today, although some dampening is possible along its northern/northeastern periphery. This dampening will occur as a series of shortwave troughs rotate through the base of the upper troughing extending from the Hudson Bay into the Pacific Northwest. Lead shortwave trough in this series is currently moving across the northern Plains, with another shortwave farther west across the northern Rockies. Eastward progression of the lead shortwave trough will encourage an associated eastward/southeastward push of the cold front that currently extends from far northwestern Ontario into east-central WY. Thunderstorm development is anticipated along this front from the eastern Dakotas and MN into NE. Low-level upslope flow into the central High Plains will also support thunderstorms ahead of this cold front from southwest WY/eastern CO into the central Plains. Farther east, Tropical Storm Debby remain centered off the SC Coast. Steering currents remain weak in its vicinity, with only modest northwesterly progress anticipated throughout much of the period. See latest NHC advisories for track/intensity forecasts for Debby, as well as tropical watches/warnings. ...Central High Plains/Central Plains... Southeasterly low-level, upslope flow will help maintain at least moderate low-level moisture amid strong boundary-layer mixing this afternoon across the central High Plains. General expectation is for dewpoints to be in the mid/upper 50s by 21Z, which should be sufficient for air mass destabilization as temperatures warm into the mid 90s. Glancing ascent from the shortwave trough moving through northern Rockies coupled with orographic effects is expected to result in thunderstorm development across the high terrain, with these storms then moving into the moderately buoyant and sheared airmass downstream. Given the moderate shear (i.e. 0-6 around 40 kt), some more organized and persistent updrafts are possible. High cloud bases and steep low-level lapse rates will also support strong downdrafts with these more persistent storms. Given the close storm proximity and high coverage, there is some chance for cold pool amalgamation, with resulting downstream propagation into more of the central High Plains. Additionally, interaction with the frontal boundary could augment updrafts while also providing a corridor of greater severe-wind potential. Potential for damaging gusts appears high enough to introduce a 15% area from far northeast CO/NE Panhandle southeastward into southwest NE and far northwest KS. Some isolated hail is possible, both with initial development in the vicinity of the high terrain as well as any post-frontal development across the central High Plains. Isolated hail is also possible with any initial development along the front farther east from far southwest MN/southeast SD into central NE. ...Coastal Carolinas/TS Debby... As mentioned in MCD #1857, the near-term tornado risk along the coastal Carolinas associated with Debby is low, owing to limited destabilization and poor low-level lapse rates. Even so, rain bands will continue to wrap around the system throughout the day, and, given the strong low-level shear in place, any deeper, more persistent convective cores may be able to produce tornadoes. A relatively greater (but still quite low) threat may be able to develop across the Outer Banks vicinity if pockets of heating can occur within any cloud breaks. As the system gradually moves northwestward tonight, the loss of daytime heating suggests the tornado threat may become more confined closer to the center of the system over coastal northeast SC and coastal southern NC. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND COASTAL NC/SC.... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts are possible across the central High Plains this afternoon and evening. A few tornadoes remain possible today and tonight across the coastal Carolinas. The only change for this outlook update is to add a small area of SLGT risk for parts of coastal NC/SC. Isolated tornadoes have occurred this afternoon over parts of these areas, and the potential exists for further development of semi-discrete cells offshore that rotate inland. Shear profiles remain sufficiently strong to support further tornado risk. Please refer to MCD #1858 and WW #610 for further details. ..Hart.. 08/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... Expansive upper ridging will continue across the Southeast and southern Plains today, although some dampening is possible along its northern/northeastern periphery. This dampening will occur as a series of shortwave troughs rotate through the base of the upper troughing extending from the Hudson Bay into the Pacific Northwest. Lead shortwave trough in this series is currently moving across the northern Plains, with another shortwave farther west across the northern Rockies. Eastward progression of the lead shortwave trough will encourage an associated eastward/southeastward push of the cold front that currently extends from far northwestern Ontario into east-central WY. Thunderstorm development is anticipated along this front from the eastern Dakotas and MN into NE. Low-level upslope flow into the central High Plains will also support thunderstorms ahead of this cold front from southwest WY/eastern CO into the central Plains. Farther east, Tropical Storm Debby remain centered off the SC Coast. Steering currents remain weak in its vicinity, with only modest northwesterly progress anticipated throughout much of the period. See latest NHC advisories for track/intensity forecasts for Debby, as well as tropical watches/warnings. ...Central High Plains/Central Plains... Southeasterly low-level, upslope flow will help maintain at least moderate low-level moisture amid strong boundary-layer mixing this afternoon across the central High Plains. General expectation is for dewpoints to be in the mid/upper 50s by 21Z, which should be sufficient for air mass destabilization as temperatures warm into the mid 90s. Glancing ascent from the shortwave trough moving through northern Rockies coupled with orographic effects is expected to result in thunderstorm development across the high terrain, with these storms then moving into the moderately buoyant and sheared airmass downstream. Given the moderate shear (i.e. 0-6 around 40 kt), some more organized and persistent updrafts are possible. High cloud bases and steep low-level lapse rates will also support strong downdrafts with these more persistent storms. Given the close storm proximity and high coverage, there is some chance for cold pool amalgamation, with resulting downstream propagation into more of the central High Plains. Additionally, interaction with the frontal boundary could augment updrafts while also providing a corridor of greater severe-wind potential. Potential for damaging gusts appears high enough to introduce a 15% area from far northeast CO/NE Panhandle southeastward into southwest NE and far northwest KS. Some isolated hail is possible, both with initial development in the vicinity of the high terrain as well as any post-frontal development across the central High Plains. Isolated hail is also possible with any initial development along the front farther east from far southwest MN/southeast SD into central NE. ...Coastal Carolinas/TS Debby... As mentioned in MCD #1857, the near-term tornado risk along the coastal Carolinas associated with Debby is low, owing to limited destabilization and poor low-level lapse rates. Even so, rain bands will continue to wrap around the system throughout the day, and, given the strong low-level shear in place, any deeper, more persistent convective cores may be able to produce tornadoes. A relatively greater (but still quite low) threat may be able to develop across the Outer Banks vicinity if pockets of heating can occur within any cloud breaks. As the system gradually moves northwestward tonight, the loss of daytime heating suggests the tornado threat may become more confined closer to the center of the system over coastal northeast SC and coastal southern NC. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND COASTAL NC/SC.... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts are possible across the central High Plains this afternoon and evening. A few tornadoes remain possible today and tonight across the coastal Carolinas. The only change for this outlook update is to add a small area of SLGT risk for parts of coastal NC/SC. Isolated tornadoes have occurred this afternoon over parts of these areas, and the potential exists for further development of semi-discrete cells offshore that rotate inland. Shear profiles remain sufficiently strong to support further tornado risk. Please refer to MCD #1858 and WW #610 for further details. ..Hart.. 08/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... Expansive upper ridging will continue across the Southeast and southern Plains today, although some dampening is possible along its northern/northeastern periphery. This dampening will occur as a series of shortwave troughs rotate through the base of the upper troughing extending from the Hudson Bay into the Pacific Northwest. Lead shortwave trough in this series is currently moving across the northern Plains, with another shortwave farther west across the northern Rockies. Eastward progression of the lead shortwave trough will encourage an associated eastward/southeastward push of the cold front that currently extends from far northwestern Ontario into east-central WY. Thunderstorm development is anticipated along this front from the eastern Dakotas and MN into NE. Low-level upslope flow into the central High Plains will also support thunderstorms ahead of this cold front from southwest WY/eastern CO into the central Plains. Farther east, Tropical Storm Debby remain centered off the SC Coast. Steering currents remain weak in its vicinity, with only modest northwesterly progress anticipated throughout much of the period. See latest NHC advisories for track/intensity forecasts for Debby, as well as tropical watches/warnings. ...Central High Plains/Central Plains... Southeasterly low-level, upslope flow will help maintain at least moderate low-level moisture amid strong boundary-layer mixing this afternoon across the central High Plains. General expectation is for dewpoints to be in the mid/upper 50s by 21Z, which should be sufficient for air mass destabilization as temperatures warm into the mid 90s. Glancing ascent from the shortwave trough moving through northern Rockies coupled with orographic effects is expected to result in thunderstorm development across the high terrain, with these storms then moving into the moderately buoyant and sheared airmass downstream. Given the moderate shear (i.e. 0-6 around 40 kt), some more organized and persistent updrafts are possible. High cloud bases and steep low-level lapse rates will also support strong downdrafts with these more persistent storms. Given the close storm proximity and high coverage, there is some chance for cold pool amalgamation, with resulting downstream propagation into more of the central High Plains. Additionally, interaction with the frontal boundary could augment updrafts while also providing a corridor of greater severe-wind potential. Potential for damaging gusts appears high enough to introduce a 15% area from far northeast CO/NE Panhandle southeastward into southwest NE and far northwest KS. Some isolated hail is possible, both with initial development in the vicinity of the high terrain as well as any post-frontal development across the central High Plains. Isolated hail is also possible with any initial development along the front farther east from far southwest MN/southeast SD into central NE. ...Coastal Carolinas/TS Debby... As mentioned in MCD #1857, the near-term tornado risk along the coastal Carolinas associated with Debby is low, owing to limited destabilization and poor low-level lapse rates. Even so, rain bands will continue to wrap around the system throughout the day, and, given the strong low-level shear in place, any deeper, more persistent convective cores may be able to produce tornadoes. A relatively greater (but still quite low) threat may be able to develop across the Outer Banks vicinity if pockets of heating can occur within any cloud breaks. As the system gradually moves northwestward tonight, the loss of daytime heating suggests the tornado threat may become more confined closer to the center of the system over coastal northeast SC and coastal southern NC. Read more

WW 0610 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0610 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0610 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0610 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0610 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0610 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0240 PM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z The previous forecast is largely on track. The Isolated Dry Thunder area was expanded to account for drier conditions across parts of western Colorado with receptive fuels in the region. Otherwise, see the previous discussion for further details. ..Supinie.. 08/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... A trough moving across the northern Rockies into the northern Plains will suppress the western US ridge on Thursday. Flow aloft will shift to become more northwesterly, with monsoonal moisture shifting southward. Isolated dry thunderstorm chances will be possible along the fringes of the deeper monsoonal moisture across southern/central Utah into western Colorado and western Wyoming. In this region, precipitable water values around 0.50-0.75 inch and mainly mid-level moisture will result in high-based convection, with potential for new ignitions amid receptive fuels, and little precipitation. Gusty and erratic winds will be possible near thunderstorms. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0240 PM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z The previous forecast is largely on track. The Isolated Dry Thunder area was expanded to account for drier conditions across parts of western Colorado with receptive fuels in the region. Otherwise, see the previous discussion for further details. ..Supinie.. 08/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... A trough moving across the northern Rockies into the northern Plains will suppress the western US ridge on Thursday. Flow aloft will shift to become more northwesterly, with monsoonal moisture shifting southward. Isolated dry thunderstorm chances will be possible along the fringes of the deeper monsoonal moisture across southern/central Utah into western Colorado and western Wyoming. In this region, precipitable water values around 0.50-0.75 inch and mainly mid-level moisture will result in high-based convection, with potential for new ignitions amid receptive fuels, and little precipitation. Gusty and erratic winds will be possible near thunderstorms. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0240 PM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z The previous forecast is largely on track. The Isolated Dry Thunder area was expanded to account for drier conditions across parts of western Colorado with receptive fuels in the region. Otherwise, see the previous discussion for further details. ..Supinie.. 08/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... A trough moving across the northern Rockies into the northern Plains will suppress the western US ridge on Thursday. Flow aloft will shift to become more northwesterly, with monsoonal moisture shifting southward. Isolated dry thunderstorm chances will be possible along the fringes of the deeper monsoonal moisture across southern/central Utah into western Colorado and western Wyoming. In this region, precipitable water values around 0.50-0.75 inch and mainly mid-level moisture will result in high-based convection, with potential for new ignitions amid receptive fuels, and little precipitation. Gusty and erratic winds will be possible near thunderstorms. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0240 PM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z The previous forecast is largely on track. The Isolated Dry Thunder area was expanded to account for drier conditions across parts of western Colorado with receptive fuels in the region. Otherwise, see the previous discussion for further details. ..Supinie.. 08/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... A trough moving across the northern Rockies into the northern Plains will suppress the western US ridge on Thursday. Flow aloft will shift to become more northwesterly, with monsoonal moisture shifting southward. Isolated dry thunderstorm chances will be possible along the fringes of the deeper monsoonal moisture across southern/central Utah into western Colorado and western Wyoming. In this region, precipitable water values around 0.50-0.75 inch and mainly mid-level moisture will result in high-based convection, with potential for new ignitions amid receptive fuels, and little precipitation. Gusty and erratic winds will be possible near thunderstorms. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0240 PM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z The previous forecast is largely on track. The Isolated Dry Thunder area was expanded to account for drier conditions across parts of western Colorado with receptive fuels in the region. Otherwise, see the previous discussion for further details. ..Supinie.. 08/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... A trough moving across the northern Rockies into the northern Plains will suppress the western US ridge on Thursday. Flow aloft will shift to become more northwesterly, with monsoonal moisture shifting southward. Isolated dry thunderstorm chances will be possible along the fringes of the deeper monsoonal moisture across southern/central Utah into western Colorado and western Wyoming. In this region, precipitable water values around 0.50-0.75 inch and mainly mid-level moisture will result in high-based convection, with potential for new ignitions amid receptive fuels, and little precipitation. Gusty and erratic winds will be possible near thunderstorms. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0240 PM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z The previous forecast is largely on track. The Isolated Dry Thunder area was expanded to account for drier conditions across parts of western Colorado with receptive fuels in the region. Otherwise, see the previous discussion for further details. ..Supinie.. 08/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... A trough moving across the northern Rockies into the northern Plains will suppress the western US ridge on Thursday. Flow aloft will shift to become more northwesterly, with monsoonal moisture shifting southward. Isolated dry thunderstorm chances will be possible along the fringes of the deeper monsoonal moisture across southern/central Utah into western Colorado and western Wyoming. In this region, precipitable water values around 0.50-0.75 inch and mainly mid-level moisture will result in high-based convection, with potential for new ignitions amid receptive fuels, and little precipitation. Gusty and erratic winds will be possible near thunderstorms. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0240 PM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z The previous forecast is largely on track. The Isolated Dry Thunder area was expanded to account for drier conditions across parts of western Colorado with receptive fuels in the region. Otherwise, see the previous discussion for further details. ..Supinie.. 08/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... A trough moving across the northern Rockies into the northern Plains will suppress the western US ridge on Thursday. Flow aloft will shift to become more northwesterly, with monsoonal moisture shifting southward. Isolated dry thunderstorm chances will be possible along the fringes of the deeper monsoonal moisture across southern/central Utah into western Colorado and western Wyoming. In this region, precipitable water values around 0.50-0.75 inch and mainly mid-level moisture will result in high-based convection, with potential for new ignitions amid receptive fuels, and little precipitation. Gusty and erratic winds will be possible near thunderstorms. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0240 PM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z The previous forecast is largely on track. The Isolated Dry Thunder area was expanded to account for drier conditions across parts of western Colorado with receptive fuels in the region. Otherwise, see the previous discussion for further details. ..Supinie.. 08/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... A trough moving across the northern Rockies into the northern Plains will suppress the western US ridge on Thursday. Flow aloft will shift to become more northwesterly, with monsoonal moisture shifting southward. Isolated dry thunderstorm chances will be possible along the fringes of the deeper monsoonal moisture across southern/central Utah into western Colorado and western Wyoming. In this region, precipitable water values around 0.50-0.75 inch and mainly mid-level moisture will result in high-based convection, with potential for new ignitions amid receptive fuels, and little precipitation. Gusty and erratic winds will be possible near thunderstorms. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more