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SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0754 PM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024 Valid 080100Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PART OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms with severe wind gusts and isolated large hail will continue across parts of the central High Plains this evening. An isolated tornado threat will also continue along and near the Atlantic Coast in North Carolina. ...Coastal North Carolina/Far Eastern South Carolina... Tropical Storm Debby will continue move slowly northwestward, moving inland this evening into eastern South Carolina. Rainbands currently extend from near the center of Debby into eastern South Carolina and southern North Carolina. The WSR-88D VWP near Wilmington, North Carolina has 0-1 km storm-relative helicity near 200 ms2/s2 with gradually veering winds in the low to mid-levels. This, combined with surface dewpoints in the upper 70s F, will support a tornado threat this evening. Tornadoes will be possible mainly with cells that can become semi-discrete within the rainbands of Debby. The threat could continue into the late evening and early overnight as Debby moves across South Carolina. ...Central High Plains... The latest water vapor imagery shows evidence of a subtle shortwave trough over the central High Plains. Near this feature, scattered thunderstorms are ongoing from western Nebraska into eastern Colorado. The storms are located along the western edge of a pocket of moderate instability, where the RAP is analyzing MLCAPE in the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range. RAP forecast soundings near the instability axis early this evening have 0-6 km hear in the 30 to 40 knot range, with 700-500 mb lapse rates of 7 to 8 C/km. This will continue to support isolated large hail within rotating cells this evening. Severe wind gusts will also be possible near and just ahead of the more intense line segments. The potential for severe wind gusts should continue for much of the evening as the cluster of storms moves across southwest Nebraska and northwest Kansas. ..Broyles.. 08/08/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0754 PM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024 Valid 080100Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PART OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms with severe wind gusts and isolated large hail will continue across parts of the central High Plains this evening. An isolated tornado threat will also continue along and near the Atlantic Coast in North Carolina. ...Coastal North Carolina/Far Eastern South Carolina... Tropical Storm Debby will continue move slowly northwestward, moving inland this evening into eastern South Carolina. Rainbands currently extend from near the center of Debby into eastern South Carolina and southern North Carolina. The WSR-88D VWP near Wilmington, North Carolina has 0-1 km storm-relative helicity near 200 ms2/s2 with gradually veering winds in the low to mid-levels. This, combined with surface dewpoints in the upper 70s F, will support a tornado threat this evening. Tornadoes will be possible mainly with cells that can become semi-discrete within the rainbands of Debby. The threat could continue into the late evening and early overnight as Debby moves across South Carolina. ...Central High Plains... The latest water vapor imagery shows evidence of a subtle shortwave trough over the central High Plains. Near this feature, scattered thunderstorms are ongoing from western Nebraska into eastern Colorado. The storms are located along the western edge of a pocket of moderate instability, where the RAP is analyzing MLCAPE in the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range. RAP forecast soundings near the instability axis early this evening have 0-6 km hear in the 30 to 40 knot range, with 700-500 mb lapse rates of 7 to 8 C/km. This will continue to support isolated large hail within rotating cells this evening. Severe wind gusts will also be possible near and just ahead of the more intense line segments. The potential for severe wind gusts should continue for much of the evening as the cluster of storms moves across southwest Nebraska and northwest Kansas. ..Broyles.. 08/08/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0754 PM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024 Valid 080100Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PART OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms with severe wind gusts and isolated large hail will continue across parts of the central High Plains this evening. An isolated tornado threat will also continue along and near the Atlantic Coast in North Carolina. ...Coastal North Carolina/Far Eastern South Carolina... Tropical Storm Debby will continue move slowly northwestward, moving inland this evening into eastern South Carolina. Rainbands currently extend from near the center of Debby into eastern South Carolina and southern North Carolina. The WSR-88D VWP near Wilmington, North Carolina has 0-1 km storm-relative helicity near 200 ms2/s2 with gradually veering winds in the low to mid-levels. This, combined with surface dewpoints in the upper 70s F, will support a tornado threat this evening. Tornadoes will be possible mainly with cells that can become semi-discrete within the rainbands of Debby. The threat could continue into the late evening and early overnight as Debby moves across South Carolina. ...Central High Plains... The latest water vapor imagery shows evidence of a subtle shortwave trough over the central High Plains. Near this feature, scattered thunderstorms are ongoing from western Nebraska into eastern Colorado. The storms are located along the western edge of a pocket of moderate instability, where the RAP is analyzing MLCAPE in the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range. RAP forecast soundings near the instability axis early this evening have 0-6 km hear in the 30 to 40 knot range, with 700-500 mb lapse rates of 7 to 8 C/km. This will continue to support isolated large hail within rotating cells this evening. Severe wind gusts will also be possible near and just ahead of the more intense line segments. The potential for severe wind gusts should continue for much of the evening as the cluster of storms moves across southwest Nebraska and northwest Kansas. ..Broyles.. 08/08/2024 Read more

WW 0610 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 610 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1861 ..THORNTON..08/08/24 ATTN...WFO...ILM...MHX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 610 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC019-031-047-049-061-103-129-133-137-141-080140- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRUNSWICK CARTERET COLUMBUS CRAVEN DUPLIN JONES NEW HANOVER ONSLOW PAMLICO PENDER SCC051-080140- SC . SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HORRY AMZ137-156-158-250-252-254-080140- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0610 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 610 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1861 ..THORNTON..08/08/24 ATTN...WFO...ILM...MHX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 610 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC019-031-047-049-061-103-129-133-137-141-080140- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRUNSWICK CARTERET COLUMBUS CRAVEN DUPLIN JONES NEW HANOVER ONSLOW PAMLICO PENDER SCC051-080140- SC . SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HORRY AMZ137-156-158-250-252-254-080140- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0611 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 611 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SPC..08/07/24 ATTN...WFO...GLD...BOU...LBF...CYS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 611 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC063-075-087-095-115-121-123-125-080140- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE KIT CARSON LOGAN MORGAN PHILLIPS SEDGWICK WASHINGTON WELD YUMA KSC023-039-153-179-181-193-080140- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE DECATUR RAWLINS SHERIDAN SHERMAN THOMAS NEC005-007-029-033-049-057-063-069-085-087-101-105-111-117-123- 135-145-157-080140- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARTHUR BANNER CHASE Read more

WW 0611 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 611 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SPC..08/07/24 ATTN...WFO...GLD...BOU...LBF...CYS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 611 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC063-075-087-095-115-121-123-125-080140- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE KIT CARSON LOGAN MORGAN PHILLIPS SEDGWICK WASHINGTON WELD YUMA KSC023-039-153-179-181-193-080140- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE DECATUR RAWLINS SHERIDAN SHERMAN THOMAS NEC005-007-029-033-049-057-063-069-085-087-101-105-111-117-123- 135-145-157-080140- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARTHUR BANNER CHASE Read more

MD 1860 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 611... FOR CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
Mesoscale Discussion 1860 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0630 PM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024 Areas affected...Central High Plains Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 611... Valid 072330Z - 080130Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 611 continues. SUMMARY...Hail and wind threat will spread east with convection this evening. DISCUSSION...Water-vapor imagery suggests a weak disturbance may be encouraging upscale convective growth over the central High Plains early this evening. Upper anticyclone remains positioned over the Great Basin and northwesterly 500mb flow should strengthen a bit over northeast CO into western NE tonight. Scattered robust convection is gradually increasing in areal coverage as it propagates downstream into somewhat more buoyant airmass, especially along/south of the synoptic front that currently extends across the NE Panhandle into southeast WY. Prefrontal wind shift is also aiding convection across northeast CO and this activity should gradually advance toward northwest KS later this evening. Several supercells are noted within the larger convective complex, but mixed storm mode should linger for several hours before possible MCS evolves over northeast CO/southwest NE after sunset. ..Darrow.. 08/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS... LAT...LON 41760499 41120056 39250057 39870500 41760499 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 072319
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Wed Aug 7 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Emilia, located several hundred miles southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula, and has issued the
last advisory on Post-Tropical Cyclone Fabio.

South of Central America and Southern Mexico:
A tropical wave currently moving over Central America is expected to
emerge into the far eastern portion of the East Pacific sometime on
Thursday. Environmental conditions appear generally favorable for
gradual development of the system thereafter as the system moves
west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph, parallel to the coast of
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Aug 7 23:02:13 UTC 2024.

WW 0610 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 610 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..THORNTON..08/07/24 ATTN...WFO...ILM...MHX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 610 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC019-031-047-049-061-103-129-133-137-141-080040- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRUNSWICK CARTERET COLUMBUS CRAVEN DUPLIN JONES NEW HANOVER ONSLOW PAMLICO PENDER SCC051-080040- SC . SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HORRY AMZ137-156-158-250-252-254-080040- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE NEUSE AND BAY RIVERS Read more

WW 610 TORNADO NC SC CW 072000Z - 080300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 610 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 400 PM EDT Wed Aug 7 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southern Coastal North Carolina Far Northern Coastal South Carolina Coastal Waters * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 400 PM until 1100 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible SUMMARY...Rain bands continue to rotate around Tropical Storm Debby. A few stronger thunderstorms with the potential to produce brief tornadoes are possible within these bands. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 30 statute miles north and south of a line from 15 miles west southwest of Myrtle Beach SC to 25 miles southeast of New Bern NC. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 0.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 400. Mean storm motion vector 14030. ...Mosier Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0458 PM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z In the mid-levels, a belt of modest mid-level flow will remain over the northern half of CONUS through the weekend into early next week. Several shortwave troughs embedded in the flow are expected to provide lift for thunderstorm activity as well as stronger surface winds. One such shortwave trough is expected to traverse the northwestern CONUS with attendant thunderstorm activity. Low precipitable water values may result in a dry lightning risk overlapping with receptive fuels across portions of the northwest and northern Rockies. By early next week, a longwave trough is expected to develop over the northwestern CONUS, with the stronger mid-level flow pushing southward around the periphery of the trough. This may result in some Elevated or Critical fire risk across portions of the Great Basin. At the moment, the highest confidence for overlap of strong winds with low RH and receptive fuels in the region is on D4/Saturday and D6/Monday. Therefore, a 40% highlight has been maintained on D4, and one been introduced on D6 for this area. ..Supinie.. 08/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0458 PM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z In the mid-levels, a belt of modest mid-level flow will remain over the northern half of CONUS through the weekend into early next week. Several shortwave troughs embedded in the flow are expected to provide lift for thunderstorm activity as well as stronger surface winds. One such shortwave trough is expected to traverse the northwestern CONUS with attendant thunderstorm activity. Low precipitable water values may result in a dry lightning risk overlapping with receptive fuels across portions of the northwest and northern Rockies. By early next week, a longwave trough is expected to develop over the northwestern CONUS, with the stronger mid-level flow pushing southward around the periphery of the trough. This may result in some Elevated or Critical fire risk across portions of the Great Basin. At the moment, the highest confidence for overlap of strong winds with low RH and receptive fuels in the region is on D4/Saturday and D6/Monday. Therefore, a 40% highlight has been maintained on D4, and one been introduced on D6 for this area. ..Supinie.. 08/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0458 PM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z In the mid-levels, a belt of modest mid-level flow will remain over the northern half of CONUS through the weekend into early next week. Several shortwave troughs embedded in the flow are expected to provide lift for thunderstorm activity as well as stronger surface winds. One such shortwave trough is expected to traverse the northwestern CONUS with attendant thunderstorm activity. Low precipitable water values may result in a dry lightning risk overlapping with receptive fuels across portions of the northwest and northern Rockies. By early next week, a longwave trough is expected to develop over the northwestern CONUS, with the stronger mid-level flow pushing southward around the periphery of the trough. This may result in some Elevated or Critical fire risk across portions of the Great Basin. At the moment, the highest confidence for overlap of strong winds with low RH and receptive fuels in the region is on D4/Saturday and D6/Monday. Therefore, a 40% highlight has been maintained on D4, and one been introduced on D6 for this area. ..Supinie.. 08/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0458 PM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z In the mid-levels, a belt of modest mid-level flow will remain over the northern half of CONUS through the weekend into early next week. Several shortwave troughs embedded in the flow are expected to provide lift for thunderstorm activity as well as stronger surface winds. One such shortwave trough is expected to traverse the northwestern CONUS with attendant thunderstorm activity. Low precipitable water values may result in a dry lightning risk overlapping with receptive fuels across portions of the northwest and northern Rockies. By early next week, a longwave trough is expected to develop over the northwestern CONUS, with the stronger mid-level flow pushing southward around the periphery of the trough. This may result in some Elevated or Critical fire risk across portions of the Great Basin. At the moment, the highest confidence for overlap of strong winds with low RH and receptive fuels in the region is on D4/Saturday and D6/Monday. Therefore, a 40% highlight has been maintained on D4, and one been introduced on D6 for this area. ..Supinie.. 08/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0458 PM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z In the mid-levels, a belt of modest mid-level flow will remain over the northern half of CONUS through the weekend into early next week. Several shortwave troughs embedded in the flow are expected to provide lift for thunderstorm activity as well as stronger surface winds. One such shortwave trough is expected to traverse the northwestern CONUS with attendant thunderstorm activity. Low precipitable water values may result in a dry lightning risk overlapping with receptive fuels across portions of the northwest and northern Rockies. By early next week, a longwave trough is expected to develop over the northwestern CONUS, with the stronger mid-level flow pushing southward around the periphery of the trough. This may result in some Elevated or Critical fire risk across portions of the Great Basin. At the moment, the highest confidence for overlap of strong winds with low RH and receptive fuels in the region is on D4/Saturday and D6/Monday. Therefore, a 40% highlight has been maintained on D4, and one been introduced on D6 for this area. ..Supinie.. 08/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0458 PM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z In the mid-levels, a belt of modest mid-level flow will remain over the northern half of CONUS through the weekend into early next week. Several shortwave troughs embedded in the flow are expected to provide lift for thunderstorm activity as well as stronger surface winds. One such shortwave trough is expected to traverse the northwestern CONUS with attendant thunderstorm activity. Low precipitable water values may result in a dry lightning risk overlapping with receptive fuels across portions of the northwest and northern Rockies. By early next week, a longwave trough is expected to develop over the northwestern CONUS, with the stronger mid-level flow pushing southward around the periphery of the trough. This may result in some Elevated or Critical fire risk across portions of the Great Basin. At the moment, the highest confidence for overlap of strong winds with low RH and receptive fuels in the region is on D4/Saturday and D6/Monday. Therefore, a 40% highlight has been maintained on D4, and one been introduced on D6 for this area. ..Supinie.. 08/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0458 PM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z In the mid-levels, a belt of modest mid-level flow will remain over the northern half of CONUS through the weekend into early next week. Several shortwave troughs embedded in the flow are expected to provide lift for thunderstorm activity as well as stronger surface winds. One such shortwave trough is expected to traverse the northwestern CONUS with attendant thunderstorm activity. Low precipitable water values may result in a dry lightning risk overlapping with receptive fuels across portions of the northwest and northern Rockies. By early next week, a longwave trough is expected to develop over the northwestern CONUS, with the stronger mid-level flow pushing southward around the periphery of the trough. This may result in some Elevated or Critical fire risk across portions of the Great Basin. At the moment, the highest confidence for overlap of strong winds with low RH and receptive fuels in the region is on D4/Saturday and D6/Monday. Therefore, a 40% highlight has been maintained on D4, and one been introduced on D6 for this area. ..Supinie.. 08/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0458 PM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z In the mid-levels, a belt of modest mid-level flow will remain over the northern half of CONUS through the weekend into early next week. Several shortwave troughs embedded in the flow are expected to provide lift for thunderstorm activity as well as stronger surface winds. One such shortwave trough is expected to traverse the northwestern CONUS with attendant thunderstorm activity. Low precipitable water values may result in a dry lightning risk overlapping with receptive fuels across portions of the northwest and northern Rockies. By early next week, a longwave trough is expected to develop over the northwestern CONUS, with the stronger mid-level flow pushing southward around the periphery of the trough. This may result in some Elevated or Critical fire risk across portions of the Great Basin. At the moment, the highest confidence for overlap of strong winds with low RH and receptive fuels in the region is on D4/Saturday and D6/Monday. Therefore, a 40% highlight has been maintained on D4, and one been introduced on D6 for this area. ..Supinie.. 08/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more