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Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024 Valid 111200Z - 161200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range model output exhibits considerable spread concerning short wave developments within the evolving mid/upper flow through this period. In general, though, it appears that an initially significant, positively tilted mid-level trough will become increasingly sheared while progressing through a confluent regime across and east of the North Atlantic Seaboard late this coming weekend into early next week. In its wake, generally weak zonal flow across the U.S. may undergo some amplification by the middle to later portion of next week, including rising mid-level heights to the lee of the Rockies, downstream of digging mid-level troughing near the Pacific coast. As this regime evolves, boundary-layer dew points are likely to gradually increase beneath the mid-level ridge, probably back into the 70s F across parts of the lower through middle Missouri Valley. Across the middle Missouri Valley, perhaps into lower Missouri Valley, it appears that this may occur beneath an east-southeastward advecting plume of warm elevated mixed-layer air, which may contribute to increasing probabilities for mixed-layer CAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg by next Wednesday or Thursday. While there may be some potential for strong thunderstorm activity, initiating to the lee of the northern Rockies and Front Range, to grow upscale and organize while progressing into this environment, this likely will hinge on forcing accompanying sub-synoptic perturbations progressing around the ridge. Given the low-predictability of these features at this extended time frame, severe probabilities still appear generally low through this period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024 Valid 111200Z - 161200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range model output exhibits considerable spread concerning short wave developments within the evolving mid/upper flow through this period. In general, though, it appears that an initially significant, positively tilted mid-level trough will become increasingly sheared while progressing through a confluent regime across and east of the North Atlantic Seaboard late this coming weekend into early next week. In its wake, generally weak zonal flow across the U.S. may undergo some amplification by the middle to later portion of next week, including rising mid-level heights to the lee of the Rockies, downstream of digging mid-level troughing near the Pacific coast. As this regime evolves, boundary-layer dew points are likely to gradually increase beneath the mid-level ridge, probably back into the 70s F across parts of the lower through middle Missouri Valley. Across the middle Missouri Valley, perhaps into lower Missouri Valley, it appears that this may occur beneath an east-southeastward advecting plume of warm elevated mixed-layer air, which may contribute to increasing probabilities for mixed-layer CAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg by next Wednesday or Thursday. While there may be some potential for strong thunderstorm activity, initiating to the lee of the northern Rockies and Front Range, to grow upscale and organize while progressing into this environment, this likely will hinge on forcing accompanying sub-synoptic perturbations progressing around the ridge. Given the low-predictability of these features at this extended time frame, severe probabilities still appear generally low through this period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024 Valid 111200Z - 161200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range model output exhibits considerable spread concerning short wave developments within the evolving mid/upper flow through this period. In general, though, it appears that an initially significant, positively tilted mid-level trough will become increasingly sheared while progressing through a confluent regime across and east of the North Atlantic Seaboard late this coming weekend into early next week. In its wake, generally weak zonal flow across the U.S. may undergo some amplification by the middle to later portion of next week, including rising mid-level heights to the lee of the Rockies, downstream of digging mid-level troughing near the Pacific coast. As this regime evolves, boundary-layer dew points are likely to gradually increase beneath the mid-level ridge, probably back into the 70s F across parts of the lower through middle Missouri Valley. Across the middle Missouri Valley, perhaps into lower Missouri Valley, it appears that this may occur beneath an east-southeastward advecting plume of warm elevated mixed-layer air, which may contribute to increasing probabilities for mixed-layer CAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg by next Wednesday or Thursday. While there may be some potential for strong thunderstorm activity, initiating to the lee of the northern Rockies and Front Range, to grow upscale and organize while progressing into this environment, this likely will hinge on forcing accompanying sub-synoptic perturbations progressing around the ridge. Given the low-predictability of these features at this extended time frame, severe probabilities still appear generally low through this period. Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 08 Aug 2024 08:52:29 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 08 Aug 2024 09:29:25 GMT

Issued at 200 AM PDT Thu Aug 08 2024 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 080851 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Emilia Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052024 200 AM PDT Thu Aug 08 2024 Emilia is quickly weakening. Two scatterometer passes from 0442 and 0535 UTC showed winds up to 35 kt with an elongated center and a large area of light winds in the southwest quadrant. Even the area of tropical-storm-force winds shrunk notably by the time of the latter ASCAT pass. The center has an isolated, small burst of convection with some decaying thunderstorms in fragmented rainbands around the northern semicircle of the circulation. The initial intensity has been lowered to 35 kt. The oceanic and atmospheric conditions are becoming increasingly hostile. Emilia is expected to continue weakening over the next couple of days and is now forecast to become a remnant low on Friday. Though, if satellite trends continue, this could occur sooner. The tropical storm is moving west-northwestward at 18 kt. This motion, with a decreased forward speed, should continue though the weekend as Emilia is steered by a mid-level ridge centered to the storm's northeast. The latest NHC track forecast is essentially unchanged from the previous prediction. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0900Z 21.1N 121.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 08/1800Z 21.8N 123.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 09/0600Z 22.7N 126.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 09/1800Z 23.4N 128.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 10/0600Z 24.1N 130.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 10/1800Z 24.7N 131.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 11/0600Z 25.1N 133.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 12/0600Z 25.4N 136.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 13/0600Z 25.0N 139.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Bucci

Issued at 0900 UTC THU AUG 08 2024 096 FOPZ15 KNHC 080850 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM EMILIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052024 0900 UTC THU AUG 08 2024 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 121.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 120W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) 25N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER BUCCI

Issued at 200 AM PDT Thu Aug 08 2024 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 080850 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Emilia Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052024 200 AM PDT Thu Aug 08 2024 ...EMILIA EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON FRIDAY... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.1N 121.9W ABOUT 780 MI...1250 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Emilia was located near latitude 21.1 North, longitude 121.9 West. Emilia is moving toward the west-northwest near 21 mph (33 km/h), and this motion with a slower forward speed is expected into the weekend. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast, and Emilia is likely to become a remnant low by Friday afternoon or evening. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Bucci

...EMILIA EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON FRIDAY... As of 2:00 AM PDT Thu Aug 8 the center of Emilia was located near 21.1, -121.9 with movement WNW at 21 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Issued at 0900 UTC THU AUG 08 2024 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 080849 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM EMILIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052024 0900 UTC THU AUG 08 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 121.9W AT 08/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 18 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......130NE 100SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 150SE 120SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 121.9W AT 08/0900Z AT 08/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 121.0W FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 21.8N 123.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 22.7N 126.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 23.4N 128.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 24.1N 130.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 24.7N 131.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 25.1N 133.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 25.4N 136.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 25.0N 139.0W...DISSIPATED MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.1N 121.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BUCCI

MD 1863 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 612... FOR EASTERN NC
Mesoscale Discussion 1863 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0119 AM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024 Areas affected...Eastern NC Concerning...Tornado Watch 612... Valid 080619Z - 080815Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 612 continues. SUMMARY...Some tornado threat will continue overnight. New watch issuance to the west of WW 612 is possible. DISCUSSION...Occasional small supercells have been redeveloping across parts of eastern NC early this morning, within an environment characterized by rich tropical moisture and relatively strong low-level shear/SRH (with 0-1 km SRH near 200 m2/s2 per the KMHX VWP). This process may continue through the overnight, as convection continues to spread inland within the northeast quadrant of Tropical Storm Debby, with an attendant tornado threat. Thus far, the western extent of the threat has been limited by an extensive rain shield further inland across parts of central/eastern NC. However, this rain shield may tend to shift somewhat westward with time, with potential for some destabilization and an increasing tornado threat to the west of WW 612. New watch issuance is possible in order to address the potentially expanding threat. ..Dean/Edwards.. 08/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM... LAT...LON 34267806 34467830 34827849 35327842 35837807 36237759 36357623 36327611 36087561 35707538 35127562 34547622 34277685 34117752 34157777 34267806 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. Saturday through Saturday night. ...New England... Models are varied in depiction of surface cyclogenesis east-northeast of the Great Lakes region into the upper St. Lawrence Valley through 12Z Saturday, and the merging of Debby's remnant low into this cyclonic regime. However, in general, it appears that one initial occluding cyclone may continue to weaken across western Quebec during the day Saturday, while another area of consolidating low pressure continues to deepen east-northeastward through the remainder of the St. Lawrence Valley and the Gulf of St. Lawrence by Saturday night. Regardless, most guidance indicates that the belt of seasonably strong southerly lower/mid-tropospheric flow and convective development associated with this regime will shift into the Canadian Maritimes early in the period, prior to any potential for appreciable boundary-layer destabilization. ...Elsewhere... Generally beneath mid-level ridging across the southern mid- and subtropical latitudes, while a plume of moisture emanating from the lower latitudes appears likely to shift east of the Atlantic Seaboard during this period, lingering boundary-layer moisture ahead of a surface cold front advancing toward the south Atlantic coast may support moderately large CAPE with daytime heating. This might be accompanied by widely scattered strong thunderstorm development Saturday afternoon. More widespread, but generally weaker, elevated thunderstorm development appears probable above the western flank of the front, across the Great Plains to the east of the southern Rockies, aided by forcing associated with low-level warm advection Saturday through Saturday night. A low-amplitude wave migrating around the periphery of the ridging may also contribute to widely scattered strong thunderstorm development, where boundary-layer instability becomes diurnally maximized across the eastern Great Basin into the Rockies late Saturday afternoon and evening. Although in each of these areas a few of the strongest storms could pose some risk for severe wind and/or hail, this still seems likely to remain sparse enough in coverage to maintain severe probabilities at less than 5 percent. However, it is possible that this could still change in later outlooks for this period. ..Kerr.. 08/08/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. Saturday through Saturday night. ...New England... Models are varied in depiction of surface cyclogenesis east-northeast of the Great Lakes region into the upper St. Lawrence Valley through 12Z Saturday, and the merging of Debby's remnant low into this cyclonic regime. However, in general, it appears that one initial occluding cyclone may continue to weaken across western Quebec during the day Saturday, while another area of consolidating low pressure continues to deepen east-northeastward through the remainder of the St. Lawrence Valley and the Gulf of St. Lawrence by Saturday night. Regardless, most guidance indicates that the belt of seasonably strong southerly lower/mid-tropospheric flow and convective development associated with this regime will shift into the Canadian Maritimes early in the period, prior to any potential for appreciable boundary-layer destabilization. ...Elsewhere... Generally beneath mid-level ridging across the southern mid- and subtropical latitudes, while a plume of moisture emanating from the lower latitudes appears likely to shift east of the Atlantic Seaboard during this period, lingering boundary-layer moisture ahead of a surface cold front advancing toward the south Atlantic coast may support moderately large CAPE with daytime heating. This might be accompanied by widely scattered strong thunderstorm development Saturday afternoon. More widespread, but generally weaker, elevated thunderstorm development appears probable above the western flank of the front, across the Great Plains to the east of the southern Rockies, aided by forcing associated with low-level warm advection Saturday through Saturday night. A low-amplitude wave migrating around the periphery of the ridging may also contribute to widely scattered strong thunderstorm development, where boundary-layer instability becomes diurnally maximized across the eastern Great Basin into the Rockies late Saturday afternoon and evening. Although in each of these areas a few of the strongest storms could pose some risk for severe wind and/or hail, this still seems likely to remain sparse enough in coverage to maintain severe probabilities at less than 5 percent. However, it is possible that this could still change in later outlooks for this period. ..Kerr.. 08/08/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. Saturday through Saturday night. ...New England... Models are varied in depiction of surface cyclogenesis east-northeast of the Great Lakes region into the upper St. Lawrence Valley through 12Z Saturday, and the merging of Debby's remnant low into this cyclonic regime. However, in general, it appears that one initial occluding cyclone may continue to weaken across western Quebec during the day Saturday, while another area of consolidating low pressure continues to deepen east-northeastward through the remainder of the St. Lawrence Valley and the Gulf of St. Lawrence by Saturday night. Regardless, most guidance indicates that the belt of seasonably strong southerly lower/mid-tropospheric flow and convective development associated with this regime will shift into the Canadian Maritimes early in the period, prior to any potential for appreciable boundary-layer destabilization. ...Elsewhere... Generally beneath mid-level ridging across the southern mid- and subtropical latitudes, while a plume of moisture emanating from the lower latitudes appears likely to shift east of the Atlantic Seaboard during this period, lingering boundary-layer moisture ahead of a surface cold front advancing toward the south Atlantic coast may support moderately large CAPE with daytime heating. This might be accompanied by widely scattered strong thunderstorm development Saturday afternoon. More widespread, but generally weaker, elevated thunderstorm development appears probable above the western flank of the front, across the Great Plains to the east of the southern Rockies, aided by forcing associated with low-level warm advection Saturday through Saturday night. A low-amplitude wave migrating around the periphery of the ridging may also contribute to widely scattered strong thunderstorm development, where boundary-layer instability becomes diurnally maximized across the eastern Great Basin into the Rockies late Saturday afternoon and evening. Although in each of these areas a few of the strongest storms could pose some risk for severe wind and/or hail, this still seems likely to remain sparse enough in coverage to maintain severe probabilities at less than 5 percent. However, it is possible that this could still change in later outlooks for this period. ..Kerr.. 08/08/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. Saturday through Saturday night. ...New England... Models are varied in depiction of surface cyclogenesis east-northeast of the Great Lakes region into the upper St. Lawrence Valley through 12Z Saturday, and the merging of Debby's remnant low into this cyclonic regime. However, in general, it appears that one initial occluding cyclone may continue to weaken across western Quebec during the day Saturday, while another area of consolidating low pressure continues to deepen east-northeastward through the remainder of the St. Lawrence Valley and the Gulf of St. Lawrence by Saturday night. Regardless, most guidance indicates that the belt of seasonably strong southerly lower/mid-tropospheric flow and convective development associated with this regime will shift into the Canadian Maritimes early in the period, prior to any potential for appreciable boundary-layer destabilization. ...Elsewhere... Generally beneath mid-level ridging across the southern mid- and subtropical latitudes, while a plume of moisture emanating from the lower latitudes appears likely to shift east of the Atlantic Seaboard during this period, lingering boundary-layer moisture ahead of a surface cold front advancing toward the south Atlantic coast may support moderately large CAPE with daytime heating. This might be accompanied by widely scattered strong thunderstorm development Saturday afternoon. More widespread, but generally weaker, elevated thunderstorm development appears probable above the western flank of the front, across the Great Plains to the east of the southern Rockies, aided by forcing associated with low-level warm advection Saturday through Saturday night. A low-amplitude wave migrating around the periphery of the ridging may also contribute to widely scattered strong thunderstorm development, where boundary-layer instability becomes diurnally maximized across the eastern Great Basin into the Rockies late Saturday afternoon and evening. Although in each of these areas a few of the strongest storms could pose some risk for severe wind and/or hail, this still seems likely to remain sparse enough in coverage to maintain severe probabilities at less than 5 percent. However, it is possible that this could still change in later outlooks for this period. ..Kerr.. 08/08/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. Saturday through Saturday night. ...New England... Models are varied in depiction of surface cyclogenesis east-northeast of the Great Lakes region into the upper St. Lawrence Valley through 12Z Saturday, and the merging of Debby's remnant low into this cyclonic regime. However, in general, it appears that one initial occluding cyclone may continue to weaken across western Quebec during the day Saturday, while another area of consolidating low pressure continues to deepen east-northeastward through the remainder of the St. Lawrence Valley and the Gulf of St. Lawrence by Saturday night. Regardless, most guidance indicates that the belt of seasonably strong southerly lower/mid-tropospheric flow and convective development associated with this regime will shift into the Canadian Maritimes early in the period, prior to any potential for appreciable boundary-layer destabilization. ...Elsewhere... Generally beneath mid-level ridging across the southern mid- and subtropical latitudes, while a plume of moisture emanating from the lower latitudes appears likely to shift east of the Atlantic Seaboard during this period, lingering boundary-layer moisture ahead of a surface cold front advancing toward the south Atlantic coast may support moderately large CAPE with daytime heating. This might be accompanied by widely scattered strong thunderstorm development Saturday afternoon. More widespread, but generally weaker, elevated thunderstorm development appears probable above the western flank of the front, across the Great Plains to the east of the southern Rockies, aided by forcing associated with low-level warm advection Saturday through Saturday night. A low-amplitude wave migrating around the periphery of the ridging may also contribute to widely scattered strong thunderstorm development, where boundary-layer instability becomes diurnally maximized across the eastern Great Basin into the Rockies late Saturday afternoon and evening. Although in each of these areas a few of the strongest storms could pose some risk for severe wind and/or hail, this still seems likely to remain sparse enough in coverage to maintain severe probabilities at less than 5 percent. However, it is possible that this could still change in later outlooks for this period. ..Kerr.. 08/08/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. Saturday through Saturday night. ...New England... Models are varied in depiction of surface cyclogenesis east-northeast of the Great Lakes region into the upper St. Lawrence Valley through 12Z Saturday, and the merging of Debby's remnant low into this cyclonic regime. However, in general, it appears that one initial occluding cyclone may continue to weaken across western Quebec during the day Saturday, while another area of consolidating low pressure continues to deepen east-northeastward through the remainder of the St. Lawrence Valley and the Gulf of St. Lawrence by Saturday night. Regardless, most guidance indicates that the belt of seasonably strong southerly lower/mid-tropospheric flow and convective development associated with this regime will shift into the Canadian Maritimes early in the period, prior to any potential for appreciable boundary-layer destabilization. ...Elsewhere... Generally beneath mid-level ridging across the southern mid- and subtropical latitudes, while a plume of moisture emanating from the lower latitudes appears likely to shift east of the Atlantic Seaboard during this period, lingering boundary-layer moisture ahead of a surface cold front advancing toward the south Atlantic coast may support moderately large CAPE with daytime heating. This might be accompanied by widely scattered strong thunderstorm development Saturday afternoon. More widespread, but generally weaker, elevated thunderstorm development appears probable above the western flank of the front, across the Great Plains to the east of the southern Rockies, aided by forcing associated with low-level warm advection Saturday through Saturday night. A low-amplitude wave migrating around the periphery of the ridging may also contribute to widely scattered strong thunderstorm development, where boundary-layer instability becomes diurnally maximized across the eastern Great Basin into the Rockies late Saturday afternoon and evening. Although in each of these areas a few of the strongest storms could pose some risk for severe wind and/or hail, this still seems likely to remain sparse enough in coverage to maintain severe probabilities at less than 5 percent. However, it is possible that this could still change in later outlooks for this period. ..Kerr.. 08/08/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. Saturday through Saturday night. ...New England... Models are varied in depiction of surface cyclogenesis east-northeast of the Great Lakes region into the upper St. Lawrence Valley through 12Z Saturday, and the merging of Debby's remnant low into this cyclonic regime. However, in general, it appears that one initial occluding cyclone may continue to weaken across western Quebec during the day Saturday, while another area of consolidating low pressure continues to deepen east-northeastward through the remainder of the St. Lawrence Valley and the Gulf of St. Lawrence by Saturday night. Regardless, most guidance indicates that the belt of seasonably strong southerly lower/mid-tropospheric flow and convective development associated with this regime will shift into the Canadian Maritimes early in the period, prior to any potential for appreciable boundary-layer destabilization. ...Elsewhere... Generally beneath mid-level ridging across the southern mid- and subtropical latitudes, while a plume of moisture emanating from the lower latitudes appears likely to shift east of the Atlantic Seaboard during this period, lingering boundary-layer moisture ahead of a surface cold front advancing toward the south Atlantic coast may support moderately large CAPE with daytime heating. This might be accompanied by widely scattered strong thunderstorm development Saturday afternoon. More widespread, but generally weaker, elevated thunderstorm development appears probable above the western flank of the front, across the Great Plains to the east of the southern Rockies, aided by forcing associated with low-level warm advection Saturday through Saturday night. A low-amplitude wave migrating around the periphery of the ridging may also contribute to widely scattered strong thunderstorm development, where boundary-layer instability becomes diurnally maximized across the eastern Great Basin into the Rockies late Saturday afternoon and evening. Although in each of these areas a few of the strongest storms could pose some risk for severe wind and/or hail, this still seems likely to remain sparse enough in coverage to maintain severe probabilities at less than 5 percent. However, it is possible that this could still change in later outlooks for this period. ..Kerr.. 08/08/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. Saturday through Saturday night. ...New England... Models are varied in depiction of surface cyclogenesis east-northeast of the Great Lakes region into the upper St. Lawrence Valley through 12Z Saturday, and the merging of Debby's remnant low into this cyclonic regime. However, in general, it appears that one initial occluding cyclone may continue to weaken across western Quebec during the day Saturday, while another area of consolidating low pressure continues to deepen east-northeastward through the remainder of the St. Lawrence Valley and the Gulf of St. Lawrence by Saturday night. Regardless, most guidance indicates that the belt of seasonably strong southerly lower/mid-tropospheric flow and convective development associated with this regime will shift into the Canadian Maritimes early in the period, prior to any potential for appreciable boundary-layer destabilization. ...Elsewhere... Generally beneath mid-level ridging across the southern mid- and subtropical latitudes, while a plume of moisture emanating from the lower latitudes appears likely to shift east of the Atlantic Seaboard during this period, lingering boundary-layer moisture ahead of a surface cold front advancing toward the south Atlantic coast may support moderately large CAPE with daytime heating. This might be accompanied by widely scattered strong thunderstorm development Saturday afternoon. More widespread, but generally weaker, elevated thunderstorm development appears probable above the western flank of the front, across the Great Plains to the east of the southern Rockies, aided by forcing associated with low-level warm advection Saturday through Saturday night. A low-amplitude wave migrating around the periphery of the ridging may also contribute to widely scattered strong thunderstorm development, where boundary-layer instability becomes diurnally maximized across the eastern Great Basin into the Rockies late Saturday afternoon and evening. Although in each of these areas a few of the strongest storms could pose some risk for severe wind and/or hail, this still seems likely to remain sparse enough in coverage to maintain severe probabilities at less than 5 percent. However, it is possible that this could still change in later outlooks for this period. ..Kerr.. 08/08/2024 Read more

WW 0613 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 613 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..DEAN..08/08/24 ATTN...WFO...MHX...AKQ...RAH... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 613 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC013-015-029-031-041-049-051-053-055-061-065-069-073-077-079- 083-085-091-095-101-103-107-117-127-131-133-137-139-143-147-163- 177-181-183-185-187-191-195-080840- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEAUFORT BERTIE CAMDEN CARTERET CHOWAN CRAVEN CUMBERLAND CURRITUCK DARE DUPLIN EDGECOMBE FRANKLIN GATES GRANVILLE GREENE HALIFAX HARNETT HERTFORD HYDE JOHNSTON JONES LENOIR MARTIN NASH NORTHAMPTON ONSLOW PAMLICO PASQUOTANK PERQUIMANS PITT SAMPSON TYRRELL VANCE WAKE WARREN WASHINGTON WAYNE WILSON VAC025-073-081-093-095-115-175-181-183-199-550-595-620-650-700- 710-735-740-800-810-830-080840- VA Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. Saturday through Saturday night. ...New England... Models are varied in depiction of surface cyclogenesis east-northeast of the Great Lakes region into the upper St. Lawrence Valley through 12Z Saturday, and the merging of Debby's remnant low into this cyclonic regime. However, in general, it appears that one initial occluding cyclone may continue to weaken across western Quebec during the day Saturday, while another area of consolidating low pressure continues to deepen east-northeastward through the remainder of the St. Lawrence Valley and the Gulf of St. Lawrence by Saturday night. Regardless, most guidance indicates that the belt of seasonably strong southerly lower/mid-tropospheric flow and convective development associated with this regime will shift into the Canadian Maritimes early in the period, prior to any potential for appreciable boundary-layer destabilization. ...Elsewhere... Generally beneath mid-level ridging across the southern mid- and subtropical latitudes, while a plume of moisture emanating from the lower latitudes appears likely to shift east of the Atlantic Seaboard during this period, lingering boundary-layer moisture ahead of a surface cold front advancing toward the south Atlantic coast may support moderately large CAPE with daytime heating. This might be accompanied by widely scattered strong thunderstorm development Saturday afternoon. More widespread, but generally weaker, elevated thunderstorm development appears probable above the western flank of the front, across the Great Plains to the east of the southern Rockies, aided by forcing associated with low-level warm advection Saturday through Saturday night. A low-amplitude wave migrating around the periphery of the ridging may also contribute to widely scattered strong thunderstorm development, where boundary-layer instability becomes diurnally maximized across the eastern Great Basin into the Rockies late Saturday afternoon and evening. Although in each of these areas a few of the strongest storms could pose some risk for severe wind and/or hail, this still seems likely to remain sparse enough in coverage to maintain severe probabilities at less than 5 percent. However, it is possible that this could still change in later outlooks for this period. ..Kerr.. 08/08/2024 Read more