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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1105 AM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA AND THE MID ATLANTIC REGION... ...SUMMARY... Isolated tornadoes are possible today and tonight over portions of the Mid Atlantic region. Strong thunderstorm wind gusts may affect portions of Utah and Arizona. ...Mid Atlantic... The center of circulation of TS Debby will lift northward today and tonight across central NC/VA, with the zone of strongest low level winds/shear just to the northeast of the low. A consensus of 12z CAM solutions suggest the main threat of semi-discrete convection and a few tornadoes this afternoon and evening will be across north-central NC and south-central VA. This threat will build northward into parts of northern VA and the Eastern WV Panhandle after dark, and eventually into central PA by Friday morning. Please refer to MCD #1866 for further short-term details. ...UT/AZ... Pockets of strong heating, ample mid-level moisture, and a remnant MCV tracking westward across northern AZ will help to promote thunderstorms capable of locally damaging wind gusts this afternoon from western UT into northwest AZ. Morning surface analysis shows a very moist boundary-layer in place across central and southeast AZ, with dewpoints in the upper 60s and full sunshine expected. This, combined with 12z CAM solutions of active afternoon thunderstorms, has prompted an expansion of the MRGL risk into that region. ..Hart/Lyons.. 08/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1105 AM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA AND THE MID ATLANTIC REGION... ...SUMMARY... Isolated tornadoes are possible today and tonight over portions of the Mid Atlantic region. Strong thunderstorm wind gusts may affect portions of Utah and Arizona. ...Mid Atlantic... The center of circulation of TS Debby will lift northward today and tonight across central NC/VA, with the zone of strongest low level winds/shear just to the northeast of the low. A consensus of 12z CAM solutions suggest the main threat of semi-discrete convection and a few tornadoes this afternoon and evening will be across north-central NC and south-central VA. This threat will build northward into parts of northern VA and the Eastern WV Panhandle after dark, and eventually into central PA by Friday morning. Please refer to MCD #1866 for further short-term details. ...UT/AZ... Pockets of strong heating, ample mid-level moisture, and a remnant MCV tracking westward across northern AZ will help to promote thunderstorms capable of locally damaging wind gusts this afternoon from western UT into northwest AZ. Morning surface analysis shows a very moist boundary-layer in place across central and southeast AZ, with dewpoints in the upper 60s and full sunshine expected. This, combined with 12z CAM solutions of active afternoon thunderstorms, has prompted an expansion of the MRGL risk into that region. ..Hart/Lyons.. 08/08/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1107 AM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z The notable changes on this update are to expand the Isolated Dry Thunder area into Nevada and to add an Isolated Dry Thunder area in portions of northeast Washington. Both of these changes reflect greater confidence in lightning occurrence in an environment with dry fuels and precipitable water values between 0.5-0.75 inches. Otherwise, see the previous discussion for more details. ..Supinie.. 08/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0112 AM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024/ ...Synopsis... As a trough moving across the northern Rockies into the northern Plains suppresses the western US ridge today, flow aloft will shift to become more northwesterly with monsoonal moisture shifting southward. Isolated dry thunderstorm chances will be possible along the fringes of the deeper monsoonal moisture across southern/central Utah into western Colorado and western Wyoming. In these regions, precipitable water values around 0.50-0.75 inch and mainly mid-level moisture will result in high-based convection, with potential for new ignitions amid receptive fuels, and little precipitation. Gusty and erratic winds will be possible near thunderstorms. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1107 AM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z The notable changes on this update are to expand the Isolated Dry Thunder area into Nevada and to add an Isolated Dry Thunder area in portions of northeast Washington. Both of these changes reflect greater confidence in lightning occurrence in an environment with dry fuels and precipitable water values between 0.5-0.75 inches. Otherwise, see the previous discussion for more details. ..Supinie.. 08/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0112 AM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024/ ...Synopsis... As a trough moving across the northern Rockies into the northern Plains suppresses the western US ridge today, flow aloft will shift to become more northwesterly with monsoonal moisture shifting southward. Isolated dry thunderstorm chances will be possible along the fringes of the deeper monsoonal moisture across southern/central Utah into western Colorado and western Wyoming. In these regions, precipitable water values around 0.50-0.75 inch and mainly mid-level moisture will result in high-based convection, with potential for new ignitions amid receptive fuels, and little precipitation. Gusty and erratic winds will be possible near thunderstorms. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1107 AM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z The notable changes on this update are to expand the Isolated Dry Thunder area into Nevada and to add an Isolated Dry Thunder area in portions of northeast Washington. Both of these changes reflect greater confidence in lightning occurrence in an environment with dry fuels and precipitable water values between 0.5-0.75 inches. Otherwise, see the previous discussion for more details. ..Supinie.. 08/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0112 AM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024/ ...Synopsis... As a trough moving across the northern Rockies into the northern Plains suppresses the western US ridge today, flow aloft will shift to become more northwesterly with monsoonal moisture shifting southward. Isolated dry thunderstorm chances will be possible along the fringes of the deeper monsoonal moisture across southern/central Utah into western Colorado and western Wyoming. In these regions, precipitable water values around 0.50-0.75 inch and mainly mid-level moisture will result in high-based convection, with potential for new ignitions amid receptive fuels, and little precipitation. Gusty and erratic winds will be possible near thunderstorms. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1107 AM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z The notable changes on this update are to expand the Isolated Dry Thunder area into Nevada and to add an Isolated Dry Thunder area in portions of northeast Washington. Both of these changes reflect greater confidence in lightning occurrence in an environment with dry fuels and precipitable water values between 0.5-0.75 inches. Otherwise, see the previous discussion for more details. ..Supinie.. 08/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0112 AM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024/ ...Synopsis... As a trough moving across the northern Rockies into the northern Plains suppresses the western US ridge today, flow aloft will shift to become more northwesterly with monsoonal moisture shifting southward. Isolated dry thunderstorm chances will be possible along the fringes of the deeper monsoonal moisture across southern/central Utah into western Colorado and western Wyoming. In these regions, precipitable water values around 0.50-0.75 inch and mainly mid-level moisture will result in high-based convection, with potential for new ignitions amid receptive fuels, and little precipitation. Gusty and erratic winds will be possible near thunderstorms. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1107 AM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z The notable changes on this update are to expand the Isolated Dry Thunder area into Nevada and to add an Isolated Dry Thunder area in portions of northeast Washington. Both of these changes reflect greater confidence in lightning occurrence in an environment with dry fuels and precipitable water values between 0.5-0.75 inches. Otherwise, see the previous discussion for more details. ..Supinie.. 08/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0112 AM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024/ ...Synopsis... As a trough moving across the northern Rockies into the northern Plains suppresses the western US ridge today, flow aloft will shift to become more northwesterly with monsoonal moisture shifting southward. Isolated dry thunderstorm chances will be possible along the fringes of the deeper monsoonal moisture across southern/central Utah into western Colorado and western Wyoming. In these regions, precipitable water values around 0.50-0.75 inch and mainly mid-level moisture will result in high-based convection, with potential for new ignitions amid receptive fuels, and little precipitation. Gusty and erratic winds will be possible near thunderstorms. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1107 AM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z The notable changes on this update are to expand the Isolated Dry Thunder area into Nevada and to add an Isolated Dry Thunder area in portions of northeast Washington. Both of these changes reflect greater confidence in lightning occurrence in an environment with dry fuels and precipitable water values between 0.5-0.75 inches. Otherwise, see the previous discussion for more details. ..Supinie.. 08/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0112 AM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024/ ...Synopsis... As a trough moving across the northern Rockies into the northern Plains suppresses the western US ridge today, flow aloft will shift to become more northwesterly with monsoonal moisture shifting southward. Isolated dry thunderstorm chances will be possible along the fringes of the deeper monsoonal moisture across southern/central Utah into western Colorado and western Wyoming. In these regions, precipitable water values around 0.50-0.75 inch and mainly mid-level moisture will result in high-based convection, with potential for new ignitions amid receptive fuels, and little precipitation. Gusty and erratic winds will be possible near thunderstorms. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1107 AM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z The notable changes on this update are to expand the Isolated Dry Thunder area into Nevada and to add an Isolated Dry Thunder area in portions of northeast Washington. Both of these changes reflect greater confidence in lightning occurrence in an environment with dry fuels and precipitable water values between 0.5-0.75 inches. Otherwise, see the previous discussion for more details. ..Supinie.. 08/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0112 AM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024/ ...Synopsis... As a trough moving across the northern Rockies into the northern Plains suppresses the western US ridge today, flow aloft will shift to become more northwesterly with monsoonal moisture shifting southward. Isolated dry thunderstorm chances will be possible along the fringes of the deeper monsoonal moisture across southern/central Utah into western Colorado and western Wyoming. In these regions, precipitable water values around 0.50-0.75 inch and mainly mid-level moisture will result in high-based convection, with potential for new ignitions amid receptive fuels, and little precipitation. Gusty and erratic winds will be possible near thunderstorms. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1107 AM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z The notable changes on this update are to expand the Isolated Dry Thunder area into Nevada and to add an Isolated Dry Thunder area in portions of northeast Washington. Both of these changes reflect greater confidence in lightning occurrence in an environment with dry fuels and precipitable water values between 0.5-0.75 inches. Otherwise, see the previous discussion for more details. ..Supinie.. 08/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0112 AM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024/ ...Synopsis... As a trough moving across the northern Rockies into the northern Plains suppresses the western US ridge today, flow aloft will shift to become more northwesterly with monsoonal moisture shifting southward. Isolated dry thunderstorm chances will be possible along the fringes of the deeper monsoonal moisture across southern/central Utah into western Colorado and western Wyoming. In these regions, precipitable water values around 0.50-0.75 inch and mainly mid-level moisture will result in high-based convection, with potential for new ignitions amid receptive fuels, and little precipitation. Gusty and erratic winds will be possible near thunderstorms. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 08 Aug 2024 15:56:56 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 08 Aug 2024 15:56:56 GMT

Issued at 1500 UTC THU AUG 08 2024 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 081554 CCA TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM EMILIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052024 ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1500 UTC THU AUG 08 2024 CORRECTED TO INCLUDE 34 KT WIND RADII AT 09/0000Z TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 123.3W AT 08/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......120NE 120SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..280NE 180SE 105SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 123.3W AT 08/1500Z AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 122.7W FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 21.8N 125.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 22.7N 127.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 23.5N 129.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 24.2N 131.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 24.7N 133.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 24.9N 134.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 24.5N 138.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.2N 123.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/2100Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART

WW 0613 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 613 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..GOSS..08/08/24 ATTN...WFO...MHX...AKQ...RAH... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 613 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC013-015-029-031-041-049-051-053-055-061-065-069-073-077-079- 083-085-091-095-101-103-107-117-127-131-133-137-139-143-147-163- 177-181-183-185-187-191-195-081540- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEAUFORT BERTIE CAMDEN CARTERET CHOWAN CRAVEN CUMBERLAND CURRITUCK DARE DUPLIN EDGECOMBE FRANKLIN GATES GRANVILLE GREENE HALIFAX HARNETT HERTFORD HYDE JOHNSTON JONES LENOIR MARTIN NASH NORTHAMPTON ONSLOW PAMLICO PASQUOTANK PERQUIMANS PITT SAMPSON TYRRELL VANCE WAKE WARREN WASHINGTON WAYNE WILSON VAC025-073-081-093-095-115-175-181-183-199-550-595-620-650-700- 710-735-740-800-810-830-081540- VA Read more

WW 0613 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 613 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..GOSS..08/08/24 ATTN...WFO...MHX...AKQ...RAH... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 613 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC013-015-029-031-041-049-051-053-055-061-065-069-073-077-079- 083-085-091-095-101-103-107-117-127-131-133-137-139-143-147-163- 177-181-183-185-187-191-195-081540- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEAUFORT BERTIE CAMDEN CARTERET CHOWAN CRAVEN CUMBERLAND CURRITUCK DARE DUPLIN EDGECOMBE FRANKLIN GATES GRANVILLE GREENE HALIFAX HARNETT HERTFORD HYDE JOHNSTON JONES LENOIR MARTIN NASH NORTHAMPTON ONSLOW PAMLICO PASQUOTANK PERQUIMANS PITT SAMPSON TYRRELL VANCE WAKE WARREN WASHINGTON WAYNE WILSON VAC025-073-081-093-095-115-175-181-183-199-550-595-620-650-700- 710-735-740-800-810-830-081540- VA Read more

WW 0613 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 613 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..GOSS..08/08/24 ATTN...WFO...MHX...AKQ...RAH... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 613 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC013-015-029-031-041-049-051-053-055-061-065-069-073-077-079- 083-085-091-095-101-103-107-117-127-131-133-137-139-143-147-163- 177-181-183-185-187-191-195-081540- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEAUFORT BERTIE CAMDEN CARTERET CHOWAN CRAVEN CUMBERLAND CURRITUCK DARE DUPLIN EDGECOMBE FRANKLIN GATES GRANVILLE GREENE HALIFAX HARNETT HERTFORD HYDE JOHNSTON JONES LENOIR MARTIN NASH NORTHAMPTON ONSLOW PAMLICO PASQUOTANK PERQUIMANS PITT SAMPSON TYRRELL VANCE WAKE WARREN WASHINGTON WAYNE WILSON VAC025-073-081-093-095-115-175-181-183-199-550-595-620-650-700- 710-735-740-800-810-830-081540- VA Read more

WW 0613 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 613 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..GOSS..08/08/24 ATTN...WFO...MHX...AKQ...RAH... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 613 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC013-015-029-031-041-049-051-053-055-061-065-069-073-077-079- 083-085-091-095-101-103-107-117-127-131-133-137-139-143-147-163- 177-181-183-185-187-191-195-081540- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEAUFORT BERTIE CAMDEN CARTERET CHOWAN CRAVEN CUMBERLAND CURRITUCK DARE DUPLIN EDGECOMBE FRANKLIN GATES GRANVILLE GREENE HALIFAX HARNETT HERTFORD HYDE JOHNSTON JONES LENOIR MARTIN NASH NORTHAMPTON ONSLOW PAMLICO PASQUOTANK PERQUIMANS PITT SAMPSON TYRRELL VANCE WAKE WARREN WASHINGTON WAYNE WILSON VAC025-073-081-093-095-115-175-181-183-199-550-595-620-650-700- 710-735-740-800-810-830-081540- VA Read more

WW 0613 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 613 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..GOSS..08/08/24 ATTN...WFO...MHX...AKQ...RAH... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 613 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC013-015-029-031-041-049-051-053-055-061-065-069-073-077-079- 083-085-091-095-101-103-107-117-127-131-133-137-139-143-147-163- 177-181-183-185-187-191-195-081540- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEAUFORT BERTIE CAMDEN CARTERET CHOWAN CRAVEN CUMBERLAND CURRITUCK DARE DUPLIN EDGECOMBE FRANKLIN GATES GRANVILLE GREENE HALIFAX HARNETT HERTFORD HYDE JOHNSTON JONES LENOIR MARTIN NASH NORTHAMPTON ONSLOW PAMLICO PASQUOTANK PERQUIMANS PITT SAMPSON TYRRELL VANCE WAKE WARREN WASHINGTON WAYNE WILSON VAC025-073-081-093-095-115-175-181-183-199-550-595-620-650-700- 710-735-740-800-810-830-081540- VA Read more

WW 613 TORNADO NC VA CW 080645Z - 081700Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 613 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 245 AM EDT Thu Aug 8 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Eastern North Carolina Southeastern Virginia Coastal Waters * Effective this Thursday morning and afternoon from 245 AM until 100 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes possible SUMMARY...The tornado threat with T.S. Debby is expected to gradually expand northward and somewhat westward through midday, while lingering for several more hours (potentially past original Tornado Watch 612 expiration) in NC coastal areas formerly covered by that watch. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 85 statute miles either side of a line from 30 miles south southwest of Goldsboro NC to 35 miles east northeast of Elizabeth City NC. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...This tornado watch replaces tornado watch number 612. Watch number 612 will not be in effect after 245 AM EDT. AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 0 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 14035. ...Edwards Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 08 Aug 2024 14:51:38 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 08 Aug 2024 15:28:59 GMT