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SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 AM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024 Valid 081300Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... The main severe-weather threat today is for tornadoes from Tropical Storm Debby, in parts of North Carolina and Virginia. ...Synopsis... Mid/upper-level ridging has been suppressed considerably over the West, as a highly amplified northern-stream pattern takes shape over Canada and the northern tier of the CONUS. A compact but well- defined cyclone -- evident in moisture-channel imagery over southern MB -- will pivot southeastward then eastward over the MN/ON Boundary Waters region, then Lake Superior and adjoining portions of northwestern ON. As that occurs, height falls and strengthening cyclonic flow will spread over the Great Lakes, contributing to greater poleward advance of the deep-layer low accompanying T.S. Debby. At the surface, 11Z analysis shows a cold front from northwestern ON across western Lake Superior to west-central KS and southeastern CO, preceded by a strong outflow boundary across western MO, northwestern/central/southwestern OK, the southern TX Panhandle, and eastern NM just south of I-40. While supporting thunderstorm formation today, lack of greater shear will preclude enough severe potential near the boundary or front for an accompanying, unconditional severe risk. ...T.S. Debby: NC/VA... The tornado threat from T.S. Debby ramped up again overnight, with several strong mesocyclones and a few tornadic-debris signatures noted. Most of this activity has been occurring in response to two internal factors that continue: 1. Stronger low-level convergence/lift over the northeast quadrant of the system, helping to sustain both a persistent spiral band of embedded supercells and an occasional discrete/semi-discrete supercell outside the band; 2. Northwestward shift of favorable boundary-layer theta-e/buoyancy, as the inland rain shield and its stabilizing effects have shifted likewise, and as the cyclone as a whole has made landfall and moved roughly the same way. Though the more deeply overland path of Debby will foster gradual weakening of the wind fields overall, per NHC wind-radii forecasts, sufficiently strong low-level wind shear and enlarged hodographs will remain over a favorably moist and unstable sector well northeast of center. In that sector, both band-embedded and discrete supercells should continue to form and move northwestward as the system (and favorable sector) shift poleward. This will spread the tornado threat into more of northeastern NC and into southeastern VA with time today, perhaps reaching parts of central VA by evening. See SPC Tornado Watch 613 and related mesoscale discussions for near-term coverage of the tornado threat. Refer to NHC advisories for latest track/intensity forecasts for Debby, as well as tropical watches/warnings. ...Southern Great Basin, southwestern Colorado Plateau... Isolated severe gusts are possible this afternoon into early evening from thunderstorms over portions of northern AZ and southern UT. The northern periphery of a trough in the easterlies (equatorward of the remaining ridge) will continue to move slowly westward over western AZ and the lower Colorado River Valley today. This includes a well-defined MCV -- produced by yesterday's convection over southern AZ -- and now moving west-northwestward roughly over I-10 in western AZ. These features are expected to tighten the midlevel flow gradient northward toward the ridge just enough to encourage slow westward motion of thunderstorms developing this afternoon over the Mogollon Rim, North Rim/Kaibab Plateau, and other higher- elevation areas, where heating will preferentially remove MLCINH soonest. Activity in the transition zone between richer moisture to the south, and deeper mixing/dry-thunder potential to the north, will pose a risk of isolated severe gusts from either wet or dry downbursts, with small clusters/cold pools possibly forming also. Peak MLCAPE in the 300-800 J/kg range should overlie a very deep subcloud mixed layer supporting even larger vales of DCAPE, with surface dewpoints commonly remaining in the 40s to low 50s at lower elevations. ..Edwards/Dean.. 08/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 AM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024 Valid 081300Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... The main severe-weather threat today is for tornadoes from Tropical Storm Debby, in parts of North Carolina and Virginia. ...Synopsis... Mid/upper-level ridging has been suppressed considerably over the West, as a highly amplified northern-stream pattern takes shape over Canada and the northern tier of the CONUS. A compact but well- defined cyclone -- evident in moisture-channel imagery over southern MB -- will pivot southeastward then eastward over the MN/ON Boundary Waters region, then Lake Superior and adjoining portions of northwestern ON. As that occurs, height falls and strengthening cyclonic flow will spread over the Great Lakes, contributing to greater poleward advance of the deep-layer low accompanying T.S. Debby. At the surface, 11Z analysis shows a cold front from northwestern ON across western Lake Superior to west-central KS and southeastern CO, preceded by a strong outflow boundary across western MO, northwestern/central/southwestern OK, the southern TX Panhandle, and eastern NM just south of I-40. While supporting thunderstorm formation today, lack of greater shear will preclude enough severe potential near the boundary or front for an accompanying, unconditional severe risk. ...T.S. Debby: NC/VA... The tornado threat from T.S. Debby ramped up again overnight, with several strong mesocyclones and a few tornadic-debris signatures noted. Most of this activity has been occurring in response to two internal factors that continue: 1. Stronger low-level convergence/lift over the northeast quadrant of the system, helping to sustain both a persistent spiral band of embedded supercells and an occasional discrete/semi-discrete supercell outside the band; 2. Northwestward shift of favorable boundary-layer theta-e/buoyancy, as the inland rain shield and its stabilizing effects have shifted likewise, and as the cyclone as a whole has made landfall and moved roughly the same way. Though the more deeply overland path of Debby will foster gradual weakening of the wind fields overall, per NHC wind-radii forecasts, sufficiently strong low-level wind shear and enlarged hodographs will remain over a favorably moist and unstable sector well northeast of center. In that sector, both band-embedded and discrete supercells should continue to form and move northwestward as the system (and favorable sector) shift poleward. This will spread the tornado threat into more of northeastern NC and into southeastern VA with time today, perhaps reaching parts of central VA by evening. See SPC Tornado Watch 613 and related mesoscale discussions for near-term coverage of the tornado threat. Refer to NHC advisories for latest track/intensity forecasts for Debby, as well as tropical watches/warnings. ...Southern Great Basin, southwestern Colorado Plateau... Isolated severe gusts are possible this afternoon into early evening from thunderstorms over portions of northern AZ and southern UT. The northern periphery of a trough in the easterlies (equatorward of the remaining ridge) will continue to move slowly westward over western AZ and the lower Colorado River Valley today. This includes a well-defined MCV -- produced by yesterday's convection over southern AZ -- and now moving west-northwestward roughly over I-10 in western AZ. These features are expected to tighten the midlevel flow gradient northward toward the ridge just enough to encourage slow westward motion of thunderstorms developing this afternoon over the Mogollon Rim, North Rim/Kaibab Plateau, and other higher- elevation areas, where heating will preferentially remove MLCINH soonest. Activity in the transition zone between richer moisture to the south, and deeper mixing/dry-thunder potential to the north, will pose a risk of isolated severe gusts from either wet or dry downbursts, with small clusters/cold pools possibly forming also. Peak MLCAPE in the 300-800 J/kg range should overlie a very deep subcloud mixed layer supporting even larger vales of DCAPE, with surface dewpoints commonly remaining in the 40s to low 50s at lower elevations. ..Edwards/Dean.. 08/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 AM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024 Valid 081300Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... The main severe-weather threat today is for tornadoes from Tropical Storm Debby, in parts of North Carolina and Virginia. ...Synopsis... Mid/upper-level ridging has been suppressed considerably over the West, as a highly amplified northern-stream pattern takes shape over Canada and the northern tier of the CONUS. A compact but well- defined cyclone -- evident in moisture-channel imagery over southern MB -- will pivot southeastward then eastward over the MN/ON Boundary Waters region, then Lake Superior and adjoining portions of northwestern ON. As that occurs, height falls and strengthening cyclonic flow will spread over the Great Lakes, contributing to greater poleward advance of the deep-layer low accompanying T.S. Debby. At the surface, 11Z analysis shows a cold front from northwestern ON across western Lake Superior to west-central KS and southeastern CO, preceded by a strong outflow boundary across western MO, northwestern/central/southwestern OK, the southern TX Panhandle, and eastern NM just south of I-40. While supporting thunderstorm formation today, lack of greater shear will preclude enough severe potential near the boundary or front for an accompanying, unconditional severe risk. ...T.S. Debby: NC/VA... The tornado threat from T.S. Debby ramped up again overnight, with several strong mesocyclones and a few tornadic-debris signatures noted. Most of this activity has been occurring in response to two internal factors that continue: 1. Stronger low-level convergence/lift over the northeast quadrant of the system, helping to sustain both a persistent spiral band of embedded supercells and an occasional discrete/semi-discrete supercell outside the band; 2. Northwestward shift of favorable boundary-layer theta-e/buoyancy, as the inland rain shield and its stabilizing effects have shifted likewise, and as the cyclone as a whole has made landfall and moved roughly the same way. Though the more deeply overland path of Debby will foster gradual weakening of the wind fields overall, per NHC wind-radii forecasts, sufficiently strong low-level wind shear and enlarged hodographs will remain over a favorably moist and unstable sector well northeast of center. In that sector, both band-embedded and discrete supercells should continue to form and move northwestward as the system (and favorable sector) shift poleward. This will spread the tornado threat into more of northeastern NC and into southeastern VA with time today, perhaps reaching parts of central VA by evening. See SPC Tornado Watch 613 and related mesoscale discussions for near-term coverage of the tornado threat. Refer to NHC advisories for latest track/intensity forecasts for Debby, as well as tropical watches/warnings. ...Southern Great Basin, southwestern Colorado Plateau... Isolated severe gusts are possible this afternoon into early evening from thunderstorms over portions of northern AZ and southern UT. The northern periphery of a trough in the easterlies (equatorward of the remaining ridge) will continue to move slowly westward over western AZ and the lower Colorado River Valley today. This includes a well-defined MCV -- produced by yesterday's convection over southern AZ -- and now moving west-northwestward roughly over I-10 in western AZ. These features are expected to tighten the midlevel flow gradient northward toward the ridge just enough to encourage slow westward motion of thunderstorms developing this afternoon over the Mogollon Rim, North Rim/Kaibab Plateau, and other higher- elevation areas, where heating will preferentially remove MLCINH soonest. Activity in the transition zone between richer moisture to the south, and deeper mixing/dry-thunder potential to the north, will pose a risk of isolated severe gusts from either wet or dry downbursts, with small clusters/cold pools possibly forming also. Peak MLCAPE in the 300-800 J/kg range should overlie a very deep subcloud mixed layer supporting even larger vales of DCAPE, with surface dewpoints commonly remaining in the 40s to low 50s at lower elevations. ..Edwards/Dean.. 08/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 AM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024 Valid 081300Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... The main severe-weather threat today is for tornadoes from Tropical Storm Debby, in parts of North Carolina and Virginia. ...Synopsis... Mid/upper-level ridging has been suppressed considerably over the West, as a highly amplified northern-stream pattern takes shape over Canada and the northern tier of the CONUS. A compact but well- defined cyclone -- evident in moisture-channel imagery over southern MB -- will pivot southeastward then eastward over the MN/ON Boundary Waters region, then Lake Superior and adjoining portions of northwestern ON. As that occurs, height falls and strengthening cyclonic flow will spread over the Great Lakes, contributing to greater poleward advance of the deep-layer low accompanying T.S. Debby. At the surface, 11Z analysis shows a cold front from northwestern ON across western Lake Superior to west-central KS and southeastern CO, preceded by a strong outflow boundary across western MO, northwestern/central/southwestern OK, the southern TX Panhandle, and eastern NM just south of I-40. While supporting thunderstorm formation today, lack of greater shear will preclude enough severe potential near the boundary or front for an accompanying, unconditional severe risk. ...T.S. Debby: NC/VA... The tornado threat from T.S. Debby ramped up again overnight, with several strong mesocyclones and a few tornadic-debris signatures noted. Most of this activity has been occurring in response to two internal factors that continue: 1. Stronger low-level convergence/lift over the northeast quadrant of the system, helping to sustain both a persistent spiral band of embedded supercells and an occasional discrete/semi-discrete supercell outside the band; 2. Northwestward shift of favorable boundary-layer theta-e/buoyancy, as the inland rain shield and its stabilizing effects have shifted likewise, and as the cyclone as a whole has made landfall and moved roughly the same way. Though the more deeply overland path of Debby will foster gradual weakening of the wind fields overall, per NHC wind-radii forecasts, sufficiently strong low-level wind shear and enlarged hodographs will remain over a favorably moist and unstable sector well northeast of center. In that sector, both band-embedded and discrete supercells should continue to form and move northwestward as the system (and favorable sector) shift poleward. This will spread the tornado threat into more of northeastern NC and into southeastern VA with time today, perhaps reaching parts of central VA by evening. See SPC Tornado Watch 613 and related mesoscale discussions for near-term coverage of the tornado threat. Refer to NHC advisories for latest track/intensity forecasts for Debby, as well as tropical watches/warnings. ...Southern Great Basin, southwestern Colorado Plateau... Isolated severe gusts are possible this afternoon into early evening from thunderstorms over portions of northern AZ and southern UT. The northern periphery of a trough in the easterlies (equatorward of the remaining ridge) will continue to move slowly westward over western AZ and the lower Colorado River Valley today. This includes a well-defined MCV -- produced by yesterday's convection over southern AZ -- and now moving west-northwestward roughly over I-10 in western AZ. These features are expected to tighten the midlevel flow gradient northward toward the ridge just enough to encourage slow westward motion of thunderstorms developing this afternoon over the Mogollon Rim, North Rim/Kaibab Plateau, and other higher- elevation areas, where heating will preferentially remove MLCINH soonest. Activity in the transition zone between richer moisture to the south, and deeper mixing/dry-thunder potential to the north, will pose a risk of isolated severe gusts from either wet or dry downbursts, with small clusters/cold pools possibly forming also. Peak MLCAPE in the 300-800 J/kg range should overlie a very deep subcloud mixed layer supporting even larger vales of DCAPE, with surface dewpoints commonly remaining in the 40s to low 50s at lower elevations. ..Edwards/Dean.. 08/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 AM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024 Valid 081300Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... The main severe-weather threat today is for tornadoes from Tropical Storm Debby, in parts of North Carolina and Virginia. ...Synopsis... Mid/upper-level ridging has been suppressed considerably over the West, as a highly amplified northern-stream pattern takes shape over Canada and the northern tier of the CONUS. A compact but well- defined cyclone -- evident in moisture-channel imagery over southern MB -- will pivot southeastward then eastward over the MN/ON Boundary Waters region, then Lake Superior and adjoining portions of northwestern ON. As that occurs, height falls and strengthening cyclonic flow will spread over the Great Lakes, contributing to greater poleward advance of the deep-layer low accompanying T.S. Debby. At the surface, 11Z analysis shows a cold front from northwestern ON across western Lake Superior to west-central KS and southeastern CO, preceded by a strong outflow boundary across western MO, northwestern/central/southwestern OK, the southern TX Panhandle, and eastern NM just south of I-40. While supporting thunderstorm formation today, lack of greater shear will preclude enough severe potential near the boundary or front for an accompanying, unconditional severe risk. ...T.S. Debby: NC/VA... The tornado threat from T.S. Debby ramped up again overnight, with several strong mesocyclones and a few tornadic-debris signatures noted. Most of this activity has been occurring in response to two internal factors that continue: 1. Stronger low-level convergence/lift over the northeast quadrant of the system, helping to sustain both a persistent spiral band of embedded supercells and an occasional discrete/semi-discrete supercell outside the band; 2. Northwestward shift of favorable boundary-layer theta-e/buoyancy, as the inland rain shield and its stabilizing effects have shifted likewise, and as the cyclone as a whole has made landfall and moved roughly the same way. Though the more deeply overland path of Debby will foster gradual weakening of the wind fields overall, per NHC wind-radii forecasts, sufficiently strong low-level wind shear and enlarged hodographs will remain over a favorably moist and unstable sector well northeast of center. In that sector, both band-embedded and discrete supercells should continue to form and move northwestward as the system (and favorable sector) shift poleward. This will spread the tornado threat into more of northeastern NC and into southeastern VA with time today, perhaps reaching parts of central VA by evening. See SPC Tornado Watch 613 and related mesoscale discussions for near-term coverage of the tornado threat. Refer to NHC advisories for latest track/intensity forecasts for Debby, as well as tropical watches/warnings. ...Southern Great Basin, southwestern Colorado Plateau... Isolated severe gusts are possible this afternoon into early evening from thunderstorms over portions of northern AZ and southern UT. The northern periphery of a trough in the easterlies (equatorward of the remaining ridge) will continue to move slowly westward over western AZ and the lower Colorado River Valley today. This includes a well-defined MCV -- produced by yesterday's convection over southern AZ -- and now moving west-northwestward roughly over I-10 in western AZ. These features are expected to tighten the midlevel flow gradient northward toward the ridge just enough to encourage slow westward motion of thunderstorms developing this afternoon over the Mogollon Rim, North Rim/Kaibab Plateau, and other higher- elevation areas, where heating will preferentially remove MLCINH soonest. Activity in the transition zone between richer moisture to the south, and deeper mixing/dry-thunder potential to the north, will pose a risk of isolated severe gusts from either wet or dry downbursts, with small clusters/cold pools possibly forming also. Peak MLCAPE in the 300-800 J/kg range should overlie a very deep subcloud mixed layer supporting even larger vales of DCAPE, with surface dewpoints commonly remaining in the 40s to low 50s at lower elevations. ..Edwards/Dean.. 08/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 AM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024 Valid 081300Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... The main severe-weather threat today is for tornadoes from Tropical Storm Debby, in parts of North Carolina and Virginia. ...Synopsis... Mid/upper-level ridging has been suppressed considerably over the West, as a highly amplified northern-stream pattern takes shape over Canada and the northern tier of the CONUS. A compact but well- defined cyclone -- evident in moisture-channel imagery over southern MB -- will pivot southeastward then eastward over the MN/ON Boundary Waters region, then Lake Superior and adjoining portions of northwestern ON. As that occurs, height falls and strengthening cyclonic flow will spread over the Great Lakes, contributing to greater poleward advance of the deep-layer low accompanying T.S. Debby. At the surface, 11Z analysis shows a cold front from northwestern ON across western Lake Superior to west-central KS and southeastern CO, preceded by a strong outflow boundary across western MO, northwestern/central/southwestern OK, the southern TX Panhandle, and eastern NM just south of I-40. While supporting thunderstorm formation today, lack of greater shear will preclude enough severe potential near the boundary or front for an accompanying, unconditional severe risk. ...T.S. Debby: NC/VA... The tornado threat from T.S. Debby ramped up again overnight, with several strong mesocyclones and a few tornadic-debris signatures noted. Most of this activity has been occurring in response to two internal factors that continue: 1. Stronger low-level convergence/lift over the northeast quadrant of the system, helping to sustain both a persistent spiral band of embedded supercells and an occasional discrete/semi-discrete supercell outside the band; 2. Northwestward shift of favorable boundary-layer theta-e/buoyancy, as the inland rain shield and its stabilizing effects have shifted likewise, and as the cyclone as a whole has made landfall and moved roughly the same way. Though the more deeply overland path of Debby will foster gradual weakening of the wind fields overall, per NHC wind-radii forecasts, sufficiently strong low-level wind shear and enlarged hodographs will remain over a favorably moist and unstable sector well northeast of center. In that sector, both band-embedded and discrete supercells should continue to form and move northwestward as the system (and favorable sector) shift poleward. This will spread the tornado threat into more of northeastern NC and into southeastern VA with time today, perhaps reaching parts of central VA by evening. See SPC Tornado Watch 613 and related mesoscale discussions for near-term coverage of the tornado threat. Refer to NHC advisories for latest track/intensity forecasts for Debby, as well as tropical watches/warnings. ...Southern Great Basin, southwestern Colorado Plateau... Isolated severe gusts are possible this afternoon into early evening from thunderstorms over portions of northern AZ and southern UT. The northern periphery of a trough in the easterlies (equatorward of the remaining ridge) will continue to move slowly westward over western AZ and the lower Colorado River Valley today. This includes a well-defined MCV -- produced by yesterday's convection over southern AZ -- and now moving west-northwestward roughly over I-10 in western AZ. These features are expected to tighten the midlevel flow gradient northward toward the ridge just enough to encourage slow westward motion of thunderstorms developing this afternoon over the Mogollon Rim, North Rim/Kaibab Plateau, and other higher- elevation areas, where heating will preferentially remove MLCINH soonest. Activity in the transition zone between richer moisture to the south, and deeper mixing/dry-thunder potential to the north, will pose a risk of isolated severe gusts from either wet or dry downbursts, with small clusters/cold pools possibly forming also. Peak MLCAPE in the 300-800 J/kg range should overlie a very deep subcloud mixed layer supporting even larger vales of DCAPE, with surface dewpoints commonly remaining in the 40s to low 50s at lower elevations. ..Edwards/Dean.. 08/08/2024 Read more

WW 0613 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 613 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..DEAN..08/08/24 ATTN...WFO...MHX...AKQ...RAH... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 613 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC013-015-029-031-041-049-051-053-055-061-065-069-073-077-079- 083-085-091-095-101-103-107-117-127-131-133-137-139-143-147-163- 177-181-183-185-187-191-195-081340- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEAUFORT BERTIE CAMDEN CARTERET CHOWAN CRAVEN CUMBERLAND CURRITUCK DARE DUPLIN EDGECOMBE FRANKLIN GATES GRANVILLE GREENE HALIFAX HARNETT HERTFORD HYDE JOHNSTON JONES LENOIR MARTIN NASH NORTHAMPTON ONSLOW PAMLICO PASQUOTANK PERQUIMANS PITT SAMPSON TYRRELL VANCE WAKE WARREN WASHINGTON WAYNE WILSON VAC025-073-081-093-095-115-175-181-183-199-550-595-620-650-700- 710-735-740-800-810-830-081340- VA Read more

WW 0613 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 613 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..DEAN..08/08/24 ATTN...WFO...MHX...AKQ...RAH... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 613 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC013-015-029-031-041-049-051-053-055-061-065-069-073-077-079- 083-085-091-095-101-103-107-117-127-131-133-137-139-143-147-163- 177-181-183-185-187-191-195-081340- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEAUFORT BERTIE CAMDEN CARTERET CHOWAN CRAVEN CUMBERLAND CURRITUCK DARE DUPLIN EDGECOMBE FRANKLIN GATES GRANVILLE GREENE HALIFAX HARNETT HERTFORD HYDE JOHNSTON JONES LENOIR MARTIN NASH NORTHAMPTON ONSLOW PAMLICO PASQUOTANK PERQUIMANS PITT SAMPSON TYRRELL VANCE WAKE WARREN WASHINGTON WAYNE WILSON VAC025-073-081-093-095-115-175-181-183-199-550-595-620-650-700- 710-735-740-800-810-830-081340- VA Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 081138
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Thu Aug 8 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Emilia, located several hundred miles west of the southern tip
of the Baja California peninsula.

South of Southern Mexico:
A tropical wave over the far eastern portion of the east Pacific is
currently producing limited shower and thunderstorm activity.
Environmental conditions appear generally favorable for gradual
development of the system while it moves west-northwestward at
around 15 mph, parallel to the coast of southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Cangialosi

WW 0613 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 613 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1864 ..DEAN..08/08/24 ATTN...WFO...MHX...AKQ...RAH... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 613 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC013-015-029-031-041-049-051-053-055-061-065-069-073-077-079- 083-085-091-095-101-103-107-117-127-131-133-137-139-143-147-163- 177-181-183-185-187-191-195-081240- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEAUFORT BERTIE CAMDEN CARTERET CHOWAN CRAVEN CUMBERLAND CURRITUCK DARE DUPLIN EDGECOMBE FRANKLIN GATES GRANVILLE GREENE HALIFAX HARNETT HERTFORD HYDE JOHNSTON JONES LENOIR MARTIN NASH NORTHAMPTON ONSLOW PAMLICO PASQUOTANK PERQUIMANS PITT SAMPSON TYRRELL VANCE WAKE WARREN WASHINGTON WAYNE WILSON VAC025-073-081-093-095-115-175-181-183-199-550-595-620-650-700- 710-735-740-800-810-830-081240- Read more

MD 1864 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 613... FOR EASTERN NC INTO SOUTHEAST VA
Mesoscale Discussion 1864 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0447 AM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024 Areas affected...Eastern NC into southeast VA Concerning...Tornado Watch 613... Valid 080947Z - 081145Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 613 continues. SUMMARY...The threat for a few tornadoes will continue through and after dawn. DISCUSSION...Multiple small but tornadic supercells have moved across parts of eastern NC early this morning, within the northeastern quadrant of Tropical Storm Debby. Thus far, the tornadic cells have occurred along the eastern periphery of a larger precipitation shield, where rich moisture and upper 70s F temperatures are supporting MLCAPE of greater than 500 J/kg. Some increase in low-level flow has been noted from the KRAX and KMHX VWPs, with 0-1 km SRH of 200-350 m2/s2 for observed storm motions. This magnitude of low-level shear/SRH will continue to support tornado potential with any sustained supercell structures through and after dawn. The greatest short-term threat may continue in the vicinity of a convective band from east of Raleigh to near/west of Morehead City. However, the threat may expand to the north and east with time, into areas where little precipitation is currently occurring, and somewhat stronger destabilization will be possible after sunrise. An eventual increase in tornado threat is also possible to the west of WW 613, depending on trends regarding ongoing precipitation and potential for modest destabilization. ..Dean.. 08/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM... LAT...LON 36167904 36857767 37357631 36447563 35917538 35477544 34697619 34427693 34337760 35217924 35937935 36167904 Read more

WW 0613 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 613 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1864 ..DEAN..08/08/24 ATTN...WFO...MHX...AKQ...RAH... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 613 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC013-015-029-031-041-049-051-053-055-061-065-069-073-077-079- 083-085-091-095-101-103-107-117-127-131-133-137-139-143-147-163- 177-181-183-185-187-191-195-081040- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEAUFORT BERTIE CAMDEN CARTERET CHOWAN CRAVEN CUMBERLAND CURRITUCK DARE DUPLIN EDGECOMBE FRANKLIN GATES GRANVILLE GREENE HALIFAX HARNETT HERTFORD HYDE JOHNSTON JONES LENOIR MARTIN NASH NORTHAMPTON ONSLOW PAMLICO PASQUOTANK PERQUIMANS PITT SAMPSON TYRRELL VANCE WAKE WARREN WASHINGTON WAYNE WILSON VAC025-073-081-093-095-115-175-181-183-199-550-595-620-650-700- 710-735-740-800-810-830-081040- Read more

WW 0613 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 613 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1864 ..DEAN..08/08/24 ATTN...WFO...MHX...AKQ...RAH... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 613 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC013-015-029-031-041-049-051-053-055-061-065-069-073-077-079- 083-085-091-095-101-103-107-117-127-131-133-137-139-143-147-163- 177-181-183-185-187-191-195-081040- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEAUFORT BERTIE CAMDEN CARTERET CHOWAN CRAVEN CUMBERLAND CURRITUCK DARE DUPLIN EDGECOMBE FRANKLIN GATES GRANVILLE GREENE HALIFAX HARNETT HERTFORD HYDE JOHNSTON JONES LENOIR MARTIN NASH NORTHAMPTON ONSLOW PAMLICO PASQUOTANK PERQUIMANS PITT SAMPSON TYRRELL VANCE WAKE WARREN WASHINGTON WAYNE WILSON VAC025-073-081-093-095-115-175-181-183-199-550-595-620-650-700- 710-735-740-800-810-830-081040- Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024 Valid 111200Z - 161200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range model output exhibits considerable spread concerning short wave developments within the evolving mid/upper flow through this period. In general, though, it appears that an initially significant, positively tilted mid-level trough will become increasingly sheared while progressing through a confluent regime across and east of the North Atlantic Seaboard late this coming weekend into early next week. In its wake, generally weak zonal flow across the U.S. may undergo some amplification by the middle to later portion of next week, including rising mid-level heights to the lee of the Rockies, downstream of digging mid-level troughing near the Pacific coast. As this regime evolves, boundary-layer dew points are likely to gradually increase beneath the mid-level ridge, probably back into the 70s F across parts of the lower through middle Missouri Valley. Across the middle Missouri Valley, perhaps into lower Missouri Valley, it appears that this may occur beneath an east-southeastward advecting plume of warm elevated mixed-layer air, which may contribute to increasing probabilities for mixed-layer CAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg by next Wednesday or Thursday. While there may be some potential for strong thunderstorm activity, initiating to the lee of the northern Rockies and Front Range, to grow upscale and organize while progressing into this environment, this likely will hinge on forcing accompanying sub-synoptic perturbations progressing around the ridge. Given the low-predictability of these features at this extended time frame, severe probabilities still appear generally low through this period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024 Valid 111200Z - 161200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range model output exhibits considerable spread concerning short wave developments within the evolving mid/upper flow through this period. In general, though, it appears that an initially significant, positively tilted mid-level trough will become increasingly sheared while progressing through a confluent regime across and east of the North Atlantic Seaboard late this coming weekend into early next week. In its wake, generally weak zonal flow across the U.S. may undergo some amplification by the middle to later portion of next week, including rising mid-level heights to the lee of the Rockies, downstream of digging mid-level troughing near the Pacific coast. As this regime evolves, boundary-layer dew points are likely to gradually increase beneath the mid-level ridge, probably back into the 70s F across parts of the lower through middle Missouri Valley. Across the middle Missouri Valley, perhaps into lower Missouri Valley, it appears that this may occur beneath an east-southeastward advecting plume of warm elevated mixed-layer air, which may contribute to increasing probabilities for mixed-layer CAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg by next Wednesday or Thursday. While there may be some potential for strong thunderstorm activity, initiating to the lee of the northern Rockies and Front Range, to grow upscale and organize while progressing into this environment, this likely will hinge on forcing accompanying sub-synoptic perturbations progressing around the ridge. Given the low-predictability of these features at this extended time frame, severe probabilities still appear generally low through this period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024 Valid 111200Z - 161200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range model output exhibits considerable spread concerning short wave developments within the evolving mid/upper flow through this period. In general, though, it appears that an initially significant, positively tilted mid-level trough will become increasingly sheared while progressing through a confluent regime across and east of the North Atlantic Seaboard late this coming weekend into early next week. In its wake, generally weak zonal flow across the U.S. may undergo some amplification by the middle to later portion of next week, including rising mid-level heights to the lee of the Rockies, downstream of digging mid-level troughing near the Pacific coast. As this regime evolves, boundary-layer dew points are likely to gradually increase beneath the mid-level ridge, probably back into the 70s F across parts of the lower through middle Missouri Valley. Across the middle Missouri Valley, perhaps into lower Missouri Valley, it appears that this may occur beneath an east-southeastward advecting plume of warm elevated mixed-layer air, which may contribute to increasing probabilities for mixed-layer CAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg by next Wednesday or Thursday. While there may be some potential for strong thunderstorm activity, initiating to the lee of the northern Rockies and Front Range, to grow upscale and organize while progressing into this environment, this likely will hinge on forcing accompanying sub-synoptic perturbations progressing around the ridge. Given the low-predictability of these features at this extended time frame, severe probabilities still appear generally low through this period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024 Valid 111200Z - 161200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range model output exhibits considerable spread concerning short wave developments within the evolving mid/upper flow through this period. In general, though, it appears that an initially significant, positively tilted mid-level trough will become increasingly sheared while progressing through a confluent regime across and east of the North Atlantic Seaboard late this coming weekend into early next week. In its wake, generally weak zonal flow across the U.S. may undergo some amplification by the middle to later portion of next week, including rising mid-level heights to the lee of the Rockies, downstream of digging mid-level troughing near the Pacific coast. As this regime evolves, boundary-layer dew points are likely to gradually increase beneath the mid-level ridge, probably back into the 70s F across parts of the lower through middle Missouri Valley. Across the middle Missouri Valley, perhaps into lower Missouri Valley, it appears that this may occur beneath an east-southeastward advecting plume of warm elevated mixed-layer air, which may contribute to increasing probabilities for mixed-layer CAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg by next Wednesday or Thursday. While there may be some potential for strong thunderstorm activity, initiating to the lee of the northern Rockies and Front Range, to grow upscale and organize while progressing into this environment, this likely will hinge on forcing accompanying sub-synoptic perturbations progressing around the ridge. Given the low-predictability of these features at this extended time frame, severe probabilities still appear generally low through this period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024 Valid 111200Z - 161200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range model output exhibits considerable spread concerning short wave developments within the evolving mid/upper flow through this period. In general, though, it appears that an initially significant, positively tilted mid-level trough will become increasingly sheared while progressing through a confluent regime across and east of the North Atlantic Seaboard late this coming weekend into early next week. In its wake, generally weak zonal flow across the U.S. may undergo some amplification by the middle to later portion of next week, including rising mid-level heights to the lee of the Rockies, downstream of digging mid-level troughing near the Pacific coast. As this regime evolves, boundary-layer dew points are likely to gradually increase beneath the mid-level ridge, probably back into the 70s F across parts of the lower through middle Missouri Valley. Across the middle Missouri Valley, perhaps into lower Missouri Valley, it appears that this may occur beneath an east-southeastward advecting plume of warm elevated mixed-layer air, which may contribute to increasing probabilities for mixed-layer CAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg by next Wednesday or Thursday. While there may be some potential for strong thunderstorm activity, initiating to the lee of the northern Rockies and Front Range, to grow upscale and organize while progressing into this environment, this likely will hinge on forcing accompanying sub-synoptic perturbations progressing around the ridge. Given the low-predictability of these features at this extended time frame, severe probabilities still appear generally low through this period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024 Valid 111200Z - 161200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range model output exhibits considerable spread concerning short wave developments within the evolving mid/upper flow through this period. In general, though, it appears that an initially significant, positively tilted mid-level trough will become increasingly sheared while progressing through a confluent regime across and east of the North Atlantic Seaboard late this coming weekend into early next week. In its wake, generally weak zonal flow across the U.S. may undergo some amplification by the middle to later portion of next week, including rising mid-level heights to the lee of the Rockies, downstream of digging mid-level troughing near the Pacific coast. As this regime evolves, boundary-layer dew points are likely to gradually increase beneath the mid-level ridge, probably back into the 70s F across parts of the lower through middle Missouri Valley. Across the middle Missouri Valley, perhaps into lower Missouri Valley, it appears that this may occur beneath an east-southeastward advecting plume of warm elevated mixed-layer air, which may contribute to increasing probabilities for mixed-layer CAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg by next Wednesday or Thursday. While there may be some potential for strong thunderstorm activity, initiating to the lee of the northern Rockies and Front Range, to grow upscale and organize while progressing into this environment, this likely will hinge on forcing accompanying sub-synoptic perturbations progressing around the ridge. Given the low-predictability of these features at this extended time frame, severe probabilities still appear generally low through this period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024 Valid 111200Z - 161200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range model output exhibits considerable spread concerning short wave developments within the evolving mid/upper flow through this period. In general, though, it appears that an initially significant, positively tilted mid-level trough will become increasingly sheared while progressing through a confluent regime across and east of the North Atlantic Seaboard late this coming weekend into early next week. In its wake, generally weak zonal flow across the U.S. may undergo some amplification by the middle to later portion of next week, including rising mid-level heights to the lee of the Rockies, downstream of digging mid-level troughing near the Pacific coast. As this regime evolves, boundary-layer dew points are likely to gradually increase beneath the mid-level ridge, probably back into the 70s F across parts of the lower through middle Missouri Valley. Across the middle Missouri Valley, perhaps into lower Missouri Valley, it appears that this may occur beneath an east-southeastward advecting plume of warm elevated mixed-layer air, which may contribute to increasing probabilities for mixed-layer CAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg by next Wednesday or Thursday. While there may be some potential for strong thunderstorm activity, initiating to the lee of the northern Rockies and Front Range, to grow upscale and organize while progressing into this environment, this likely will hinge on forcing accompanying sub-synoptic perturbations progressing around the ridge. Given the low-predictability of these features at this extended time frame, severe probabilities still appear generally low through this period. Read more