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WW 427 SEVERE TSTM IA MN NE SD WI 170810Z - 171500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 427 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 310 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northern Iowa Southern Minnesota Far Northeast Nebraska Far Southeast South Dakota Western Wisconsin * Effective this Monday morning from 310 AM until 1000 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop generally east-northeastward overnight across the region, with the strongest storms capable of damaging winds and large hail. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 45 miles north of Sioux City IA to 50 miles east northeast of La Crosse WI. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 426... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 26035. ...Guyer Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 171300Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST/UPPER GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are expected today mainly across the Upper Mississippi Valley, and across the central High Plains and Northern Plains late this afternoon through tonight, with damaging winds and large hail possible. ...Upper Mississippi Valley/Upper Great Lakes... A modestly organized quasi-linear band of convection continues to make a general east-northeastward progression across southeast Minnesota into west/northwest Wisconsin around sunrise. While the convection has trended less organized and generally less intense, strong/locally severe wind gusts have continued to occur within an environment characterized by steep lapse rates and ample elevated instability in vicinity of the synoptic front. Evolving MCV influences and diurnal destabilization may allow strong/severe storms to persist east-northeastward across central/northern Wisconsin and perhaps Upper Michigan today, with additional redevelopment a possibility this afternoon/early evening along the outflow-reinforced front near the Iowa/Minnesota border vicinity. Bouts of damaging winds and severe hail are the primary hazards. ...Northern/Central Plains... A pronounced mid/upper-level trough over the Pacific Northwest will shift east-northeastward over the northern Intermountain region today and reach the northern High Plains tonight. Steady surface cyclogenesis will occur today across interior Wyoming, and subsequently into the central High Plains in vicinity of a southwest/northeast-oriented front. Near/south of the front, strong boundary-layer heating is expected across the central High Plains of eastern Colorado into northwest Kansas and southwest Nebraska. As temperatures warm into the lower 90s F, convective temperatures will be breached and isolated supercells should develop, most probable near/east of the northeast Colorado surface low and triple point vicinity including the Colorado/Nebraska/Kansas border region. Forecast soundings exhibit ample MLCAPE (2500-4000 J/kg) with steep lapse rates, along with favorable shear for sustained rotating updrafts. Very large hail may accompany this activity and some tornado threat may also exist. These storms are likely to persist east-northeastward and potentially cluster/organize to a degree toward central Nebraska this evening. Farther north, strong dynamic forcing will encourage convection to develop across the High Plains of northeast Wyoming and southeast Montana immediately ahead of the surging cold front. This activity will spread northeast ahead of the shortwave trough into the Dakotas during the overnight hours, further aided by a substantial increase of a south-southwesterly low-level jet. The severe threat will shift into the upper Red River Valley late tonight. ...Lower Great Lakes/Upper Ohio River Valley... A convective cluster/MCV moving eastward out of southeast Lower Michigan early this morning should broadly influence additional thunderstorm development into the afternoon, within a moderately to strongly unstable environment regionally. Deep layer shear will be weak (generally 25 kt or less), but steepening low-level lapse rates and a moist/unstable air mass could allow for some stronger pulse-type storms capable of localized wind damage this afternoon. ..Guyer/Leitman.. 06/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 171300Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST/UPPER GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are expected today mainly across the Upper Mississippi Valley, and across the central High Plains and Northern Plains late this afternoon through tonight, with damaging winds and large hail possible. ...Upper Mississippi Valley/Upper Great Lakes... A modestly organized quasi-linear band of convection continues to make a general east-northeastward progression across southeast Minnesota into west/northwest Wisconsin around sunrise. While the convection has trended less organized and generally less intense, strong/locally severe wind gusts have continued to occur within an environment characterized by steep lapse rates and ample elevated instability in vicinity of the synoptic front. Evolving MCV influences and diurnal destabilization may allow strong/severe storms to persist east-northeastward across central/northern Wisconsin and perhaps Upper Michigan today, with additional redevelopment a possibility this afternoon/early evening along the outflow-reinforced front near the Iowa/Minnesota border vicinity. Bouts of damaging winds and severe hail are the primary hazards. ...Northern/Central Plains... A pronounced mid/upper-level trough over the Pacific Northwest will shift east-northeastward over the northern Intermountain region today and reach the northern High Plains tonight. Steady surface cyclogenesis will occur today across interior Wyoming, and subsequently into the central High Plains in vicinity of a southwest/northeast-oriented front. Near/south of the front, strong boundary-layer heating is expected across the central High Plains of eastern Colorado into northwest Kansas and southwest Nebraska. As temperatures warm into the lower 90s F, convective temperatures will be breached and isolated supercells should develop, most probable near/east of the northeast Colorado surface low and triple point vicinity including the Colorado/Nebraska/Kansas border region. Forecast soundings exhibit ample MLCAPE (2500-4000 J/kg) with steep lapse rates, along with favorable shear for sustained rotating updrafts. Very large hail may accompany this activity and some tornado threat may also exist. These storms are likely to persist east-northeastward and potentially cluster/organize to a degree toward central Nebraska this evening. Farther north, strong dynamic forcing will encourage convection to develop across the High Plains of northeast Wyoming and southeast Montana immediately ahead of the surging cold front. This activity will spread northeast ahead of the shortwave trough into the Dakotas during the overnight hours, further aided by a substantial increase of a south-southwesterly low-level jet. The severe threat will shift into the upper Red River Valley late tonight. ...Lower Great Lakes/Upper Ohio River Valley... A convective cluster/MCV moving eastward out of southeast Lower Michigan early this morning should broadly influence additional thunderstorm development into the afternoon, within a moderately to strongly unstable environment regionally. Deep layer shear will be weak (generally 25 kt or less), but steepening low-level lapse rates and a moist/unstable air mass could allow for some stronger pulse-type storms capable of localized wind damage this afternoon. ..Guyer/Leitman.. 06/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 171300Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST/UPPER GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are expected today mainly across the Upper Mississippi Valley, and across the central High Plains and Northern Plains late this afternoon through tonight, with damaging winds and large hail possible. ...Upper Mississippi Valley/Upper Great Lakes... A modestly organized quasi-linear band of convection continues to make a general east-northeastward progression across southeast Minnesota into west/northwest Wisconsin around sunrise. While the convection has trended less organized and generally less intense, strong/locally severe wind gusts have continued to occur within an environment characterized by steep lapse rates and ample elevated instability in vicinity of the synoptic front. Evolving MCV influences and diurnal destabilization may allow strong/severe storms to persist east-northeastward across central/northern Wisconsin and perhaps Upper Michigan today, with additional redevelopment a possibility this afternoon/early evening along the outflow-reinforced front near the Iowa/Minnesota border vicinity. Bouts of damaging winds and severe hail are the primary hazards. ...Northern/Central Plains... A pronounced mid/upper-level trough over the Pacific Northwest will shift east-northeastward over the northern Intermountain region today and reach the northern High Plains tonight. Steady surface cyclogenesis will occur today across interior Wyoming, and subsequently into the central High Plains in vicinity of a southwest/northeast-oriented front. Near/south of the front, strong boundary-layer heating is expected across the central High Plains of eastern Colorado into northwest Kansas and southwest Nebraska. As temperatures warm into the lower 90s F, convective temperatures will be breached and isolated supercells should develop, most probable near/east of the northeast Colorado surface low and triple point vicinity including the Colorado/Nebraska/Kansas border region. Forecast soundings exhibit ample MLCAPE (2500-4000 J/kg) with steep lapse rates, along with favorable shear for sustained rotating updrafts. Very large hail may accompany this activity and some tornado threat may also exist. These storms are likely to persist east-northeastward and potentially cluster/organize to a degree toward central Nebraska this evening. Farther north, strong dynamic forcing will encourage convection to develop across the High Plains of northeast Wyoming and southeast Montana immediately ahead of the surging cold front. This activity will spread northeast ahead of the shortwave trough into the Dakotas during the overnight hours, further aided by a substantial increase of a south-southwesterly low-level jet. The severe threat will shift into the upper Red River Valley late tonight. ...Lower Great Lakes/Upper Ohio River Valley... A convective cluster/MCV moving eastward out of southeast Lower Michigan early this morning should broadly influence additional thunderstorm development into the afternoon, within a moderately to strongly unstable environment regionally. Deep layer shear will be weak (generally 25 kt or less), but steepening low-level lapse rates and a moist/unstable air mass could allow for some stronger pulse-type storms capable of localized wind damage this afternoon. ..Guyer/Leitman.. 06/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 171300Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST/UPPER GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are expected today mainly across the Upper Mississippi Valley, and across the central High Plains and Northern Plains late this afternoon through tonight, with damaging winds and large hail possible. ...Upper Mississippi Valley/Upper Great Lakes... A modestly organized quasi-linear band of convection continues to make a general east-northeastward progression across southeast Minnesota into west/northwest Wisconsin around sunrise. While the convection has trended less organized and generally less intense, strong/locally severe wind gusts have continued to occur within an environment characterized by steep lapse rates and ample elevated instability in vicinity of the synoptic front. Evolving MCV influences and diurnal destabilization may allow strong/severe storms to persist east-northeastward across central/northern Wisconsin and perhaps Upper Michigan today, with additional redevelopment a possibility this afternoon/early evening along the outflow-reinforced front near the Iowa/Minnesota border vicinity. Bouts of damaging winds and severe hail are the primary hazards. ...Northern/Central Plains... A pronounced mid/upper-level trough over the Pacific Northwest will shift east-northeastward over the northern Intermountain region today and reach the northern High Plains tonight. Steady surface cyclogenesis will occur today across interior Wyoming, and subsequently into the central High Plains in vicinity of a southwest/northeast-oriented front. Near/south of the front, strong boundary-layer heating is expected across the central High Plains of eastern Colorado into northwest Kansas and southwest Nebraska. As temperatures warm into the lower 90s F, convective temperatures will be breached and isolated supercells should develop, most probable near/east of the northeast Colorado surface low and triple point vicinity including the Colorado/Nebraska/Kansas border region. Forecast soundings exhibit ample MLCAPE (2500-4000 J/kg) with steep lapse rates, along with favorable shear for sustained rotating updrafts. Very large hail may accompany this activity and some tornado threat may also exist. These storms are likely to persist east-northeastward and potentially cluster/organize to a degree toward central Nebraska this evening. Farther north, strong dynamic forcing will encourage convection to develop across the High Plains of northeast Wyoming and southeast Montana immediately ahead of the surging cold front. This activity will spread northeast ahead of the shortwave trough into the Dakotas during the overnight hours, further aided by a substantial increase of a south-southwesterly low-level jet. The severe threat will shift into the upper Red River Valley late tonight. ...Lower Great Lakes/Upper Ohio River Valley... A convective cluster/MCV moving eastward out of southeast Lower Michigan early this morning should broadly influence additional thunderstorm development into the afternoon, within a moderately to strongly unstable environment regionally. Deep layer shear will be weak (generally 25 kt or less), but steepening low-level lapse rates and a moist/unstable air mass could allow for some stronger pulse-type storms capable of localized wind damage this afternoon. ..Guyer/Leitman.. 06/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 171300Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST/UPPER GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are expected today mainly across the Upper Mississippi Valley, and across the central High Plains and Northern Plains late this afternoon through tonight, with damaging winds and large hail possible. ...Upper Mississippi Valley/Upper Great Lakes... A modestly organized quasi-linear band of convection continues to make a general east-northeastward progression across southeast Minnesota into west/northwest Wisconsin around sunrise. While the convection has trended less organized and generally less intense, strong/locally severe wind gusts have continued to occur within an environment characterized by steep lapse rates and ample elevated instability in vicinity of the synoptic front. Evolving MCV influences and diurnal destabilization may allow strong/severe storms to persist east-northeastward across central/northern Wisconsin and perhaps Upper Michigan today, with additional redevelopment a possibility this afternoon/early evening along the outflow-reinforced front near the Iowa/Minnesota border vicinity. Bouts of damaging winds and severe hail are the primary hazards. ...Northern/Central Plains... A pronounced mid/upper-level trough over the Pacific Northwest will shift east-northeastward over the northern Intermountain region today and reach the northern High Plains tonight. Steady surface cyclogenesis will occur today across interior Wyoming, and subsequently into the central High Plains in vicinity of a southwest/northeast-oriented front. Near/south of the front, strong boundary-layer heating is expected across the central High Plains of eastern Colorado into northwest Kansas and southwest Nebraska. As temperatures warm into the lower 90s F, convective temperatures will be breached and isolated supercells should develop, most probable near/east of the northeast Colorado surface low and triple point vicinity including the Colorado/Nebraska/Kansas border region. Forecast soundings exhibit ample MLCAPE (2500-4000 J/kg) with steep lapse rates, along with favorable shear for sustained rotating updrafts. Very large hail may accompany this activity and some tornado threat may also exist. These storms are likely to persist east-northeastward and potentially cluster/organize to a degree toward central Nebraska this evening. Farther north, strong dynamic forcing will encourage convection to develop across the High Plains of northeast Wyoming and southeast Montana immediately ahead of the surging cold front. This activity will spread northeast ahead of the shortwave trough into the Dakotas during the overnight hours, further aided by a substantial increase of a south-southwesterly low-level jet. The severe threat will shift into the upper Red River Valley late tonight. ...Lower Great Lakes/Upper Ohio River Valley... A convective cluster/MCV moving eastward out of southeast Lower Michigan early this morning should broadly influence additional thunderstorm development into the afternoon, within a moderately to strongly unstable environment regionally. Deep layer shear will be weak (generally 25 kt or less), but steepening low-level lapse rates and a moist/unstable air mass could allow for some stronger pulse-type storms capable of localized wind damage this afternoon. ..Guyer/Leitman.. 06/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 171300Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST/UPPER GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are expected today mainly across the Upper Mississippi Valley, and across the central High Plains and Northern Plains late this afternoon through tonight, with damaging winds and large hail possible. ...Upper Mississippi Valley/Upper Great Lakes... A modestly organized quasi-linear band of convection continues to make a general east-northeastward progression across southeast Minnesota into west/northwest Wisconsin around sunrise. While the convection has trended less organized and generally less intense, strong/locally severe wind gusts have continued to occur within an environment characterized by steep lapse rates and ample elevated instability in vicinity of the synoptic front. Evolving MCV influences and diurnal destabilization may allow strong/severe storms to persist east-northeastward across central/northern Wisconsin and perhaps Upper Michigan today, with additional redevelopment a possibility this afternoon/early evening along the outflow-reinforced front near the Iowa/Minnesota border vicinity. Bouts of damaging winds and severe hail are the primary hazards. ...Northern/Central Plains... A pronounced mid/upper-level trough over the Pacific Northwest will shift east-northeastward over the northern Intermountain region today and reach the northern High Plains tonight. Steady surface cyclogenesis will occur today across interior Wyoming, and subsequently into the central High Plains in vicinity of a southwest/northeast-oriented front. Near/south of the front, strong boundary-layer heating is expected across the central High Plains of eastern Colorado into northwest Kansas and southwest Nebraska. As temperatures warm into the lower 90s F, convective temperatures will be breached and isolated supercells should develop, most probable near/east of the northeast Colorado surface low and triple point vicinity including the Colorado/Nebraska/Kansas border region. Forecast soundings exhibit ample MLCAPE (2500-4000 J/kg) with steep lapse rates, along with favorable shear for sustained rotating updrafts. Very large hail may accompany this activity and some tornado threat may also exist. These storms are likely to persist east-northeastward and potentially cluster/organize to a degree toward central Nebraska this evening. Farther north, strong dynamic forcing will encourage convection to develop across the High Plains of northeast Wyoming and southeast Montana immediately ahead of the surging cold front. This activity will spread northeast ahead of the shortwave trough into the Dakotas during the overnight hours, further aided by a substantial increase of a south-southwesterly low-level jet. The severe threat will shift into the upper Red River Valley late tonight. ...Lower Great Lakes/Upper Ohio River Valley... A convective cluster/MCV moving eastward out of southeast Lower Michigan early this morning should broadly influence additional thunderstorm development into the afternoon, within a moderately to strongly unstable environment regionally. Deep layer shear will be weak (generally 25 kt or less), but steepening low-level lapse rates and a moist/unstable air mass could allow for some stronger pulse-type storms capable of localized wind damage this afternoon. ..Guyer/Leitman.. 06/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 171300Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST/UPPER GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are expected today mainly across the Upper Mississippi Valley, and across the central High Plains and Northern Plains late this afternoon through tonight, with damaging winds and large hail possible. ...Upper Mississippi Valley/Upper Great Lakes... A modestly organized quasi-linear band of convection continues to make a general east-northeastward progression across southeast Minnesota into west/northwest Wisconsin around sunrise. While the convection has trended less organized and generally less intense, strong/locally severe wind gusts have continued to occur within an environment characterized by steep lapse rates and ample elevated instability in vicinity of the synoptic front. Evolving MCV influences and diurnal destabilization may allow strong/severe storms to persist east-northeastward across central/northern Wisconsin and perhaps Upper Michigan today, with additional redevelopment a possibility this afternoon/early evening along the outflow-reinforced front near the Iowa/Minnesota border vicinity. Bouts of damaging winds and severe hail are the primary hazards. ...Northern/Central Plains... A pronounced mid/upper-level trough over the Pacific Northwest will shift east-northeastward over the northern Intermountain region today and reach the northern High Plains tonight. Steady surface cyclogenesis will occur today across interior Wyoming, and subsequently into the central High Plains in vicinity of a southwest/northeast-oriented front. Near/south of the front, strong boundary-layer heating is expected across the central High Plains of eastern Colorado into northwest Kansas and southwest Nebraska. As temperatures warm into the lower 90s F, convective temperatures will be breached and isolated supercells should develop, most probable near/east of the northeast Colorado surface low and triple point vicinity including the Colorado/Nebraska/Kansas border region. Forecast soundings exhibit ample MLCAPE (2500-4000 J/kg) with steep lapse rates, along with favorable shear for sustained rotating updrafts. Very large hail may accompany this activity and some tornado threat may also exist. These storms are likely to persist east-northeastward and potentially cluster/organize to a degree toward central Nebraska this evening. Farther north, strong dynamic forcing will encourage convection to develop across the High Plains of northeast Wyoming and southeast Montana immediately ahead of the surging cold front. This activity will spread northeast ahead of the shortwave trough into the Dakotas during the overnight hours, further aided by a substantial increase of a south-southwesterly low-level jet. The severe threat will shift into the upper Red River Valley late tonight. ...Lower Great Lakes/Upper Ohio River Valley... A convective cluster/MCV moving eastward out of southeast Lower Michigan early this morning should broadly influence additional thunderstorm development into the afternoon, within a moderately to strongly unstable environment regionally. Deep layer shear will be weak (generally 25 kt or less), but steepening low-level lapse rates and a moist/unstable air mass could allow for some stronger pulse-type storms capable of localized wind damage this afternoon. ..Guyer/Leitman.. 06/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 171300Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST/UPPER GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are expected today mainly across the Upper Mississippi Valley, and across the central High Plains and Northern Plains late this afternoon through tonight, with damaging winds and large hail possible. ...Upper Mississippi Valley/Upper Great Lakes... A modestly organized quasi-linear band of convection continues to make a general east-northeastward progression across southeast Minnesota into west/northwest Wisconsin around sunrise. While the convection has trended less organized and generally less intense, strong/locally severe wind gusts have continued to occur within an environment characterized by steep lapse rates and ample elevated instability in vicinity of the synoptic front. Evolving MCV influences and diurnal destabilization may allow strong/severe storms to persist east-northeastward across central/northern Wisconsin and perhaps Upper Michigan today, with additional redevelopment a possibility this afternoon/early evening along the outflow-reinforced front near the Iowa/Minnesota border vicinity. Bouts of damaging winds and severe hail are the primary hazards. ...Northern/Central Plains... A pronounced mid/upper-level trough over the Pacific Northwest will shift east-northeastward over the northern Intermountain region today and reach the northern High Plains tonight. Steady surface cyclogenesis will occur today across interior Wyoming, and subsequently into the central High Plains in vicinity of a southwest/northeast-oriented front. Near/south of the front, strong boundary-layer heating is expected across the central High Plains of eastern Colorado into northwest Kansas and southwest Nebraska. As temperatures warm into the lower 90s F, convective temperatures will be breached and isolated supercells should develop, most probable near/east of the northeast Colorado surface low and triple point vicinity including the Colorado/Nebraska/Kansas border region. Forecast soundings exhibit ample MLCAPE (2500-4000 J/kg) with steep lapse rates, along with favorable shear for sustained rotating updrafts. Very large hail may accompany this activity and some tornado threat may also exist. These storms are likely to persist east-northeastward and potentially cluster/organize to a degree toward central Nebraska this evening. Farther north, strong dynamic forcing will encourage convection to develop across the High Plains of northeast Wyoming and southeast Montana immediately ahead of the surging cold front. This activity will spread northeast ahead of the shortwave trough into the Dakotas during the overnight hours, further aided by a substantial increase of a south-southwesterly low-level jet. The severe threat will shift into the upper Red River Valley late tonight. ...Lower Great Lakes/Upper Ohio River Valley... A convective cluster/MCV moving eastward out of southeast Lower Michigan early this morning should broadly influence additional thunderstorm development into the afternoon, within a moderately to strongly unstable environment regionally. Deep layer shear will be weak (generally 25 kt or less), but steepening low-level lapse rates and a moist/unstable air mass could allow for some stronger pulse-type storms capable of localized wind damage this afternoon. ..Guyer/Leitman.. 06/17/2024 Read more

MD 1298 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 427... FOR SOUTHEAST MN/NORTHEAST IA INTO WEST-CENTRAL WI
Mesoscale Discussion 1298 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0512 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Areas affected...southeast MN/northeast IA into west-central WI Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 427... Valid 171012Z - 171215Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 427 continues. SUMMARY...A corridor of strong to severe gusts around 50-65 mph remains possible this morning across far southeast Minnesota into far northeast Iowa and west-central Wisconsin. DISCUSSION...A cluster of storms near a surface boundary across southeast MN will continue to track east around 40 mph. This activity has produced gusts up to 67 mph recently. The downstream environment remains very moist and unstable, and a southwesterly low-level jet around 25-30 kt should further aid in maintenance for strong to severe convection the next couple of hours as storms approach the MS River. ..Leitman.. 06/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX... LAT...LON 44339373 44419197 43979116 43449119 43239146 43119255 43059341 43109400 43219413 43619419 44109422 44339373 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 171139
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Mon Jun 17 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore Central America (EP90):
An area of low pressure associated with disorganized showers and
thunderstorms has moved inland over Central America and further
development is not expected. Regardless of development, heavy
rainfall is forecast to continue across portions of southern Mexico
and Central America during the next several days. These rains are
likely to cause life-threatening flooding and flash flooding.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

WW 0427 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 427 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW DNS TO 20 SSE SPW TO 35 NNW MCW TO 25 SE MSP. ..LEITMAN..06/17/24 ATTN...WFO...ARX...FSD...DMX...MPX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 427 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC005-021-033-037-067-069-081-089-091-093-109-131-147-151-189- 191-195-197-171240- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLAMAKEE BUENA VISTA CERRO GORDO CHICKASAW FLOYD FRANKLIN HANCOCK HOWARD HUMBOLDT IDA KOSSUTH MITCHELL PALO ALTO POCAHONTAS WINNEBAGO WINNESHIEK WORTH WRIGHT MNC039-045-047-049-055-099-109-147-157-169-171240- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DODGE FILLMORE FREEBORN GOODHUE HOUSTON MOWER OLMSTED STEELE WABASHA WINONA Read more

WW 0427 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 427 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WNW SUX TO 25 S FRM TO 20 N MKT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1298. ..LEITMAN..06/17/24 ATTN...WFO...ARX...FSD...DMX...MPX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 427 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC005-021-033-035-037-041-067-069-081-089-091-093-109-131-147- 149-151-189-191-193-195-197-171140- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLAMAKEE BUENA VISTA CERRO GORDO CHEROKEE CHICKASAW CLAY FLOYD FRANKLIN HANCOCK HOWARD HUMBOLDT IDA KOSSUTH MITCHELL PALO ALTO PLYMOUTH POCAHONTAS WINNEBAGO WINNESHIEK WOODBURY WORTH WRIGHT MNC013-039-043-045-047-049-055-079-099-109-131-147-157-161-169- 171140- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLUE EARTH DODGE FARIBAULT Read more

WW 0427 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 427 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW SUX TO 15 ENE SPW TO 10 SE RWF. ..LEITMAN..06/17/24 ATTN...WFO...ARX...FSD...DMX...MPX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 427 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC005-021-033-035-037-041-063-067-069-081-089-091-093-109-131- 141-147-149-151-167-189-191-193-195-197-171040- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLAMAKEE BUENA VISTA CERRO GORDO CHEROKEE CHICKASAW CLAY EMMET FLOYD FRANKLIN HANCOCK HOWARD HUMBOLDT IDA KOSSUTH MITCHELL O'BRIEN PALO ALTO PLYMOUTH POCAHONTAS SIOUX WINNEBAGO WINNESHIEK WOODBURY WORTH WRIGHT MNC013-015-039-043-045-047-049-055-079-091-099-103-109-131-147- 157-161-165-169-171040- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLUE EARTH BROWN DODGE FARIBAULT FILLMORE FREEBORN Read more

WW 0426 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 426 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW OFK TO 45 SE FSD. ..LEITMAN..06/17/24 ATTN...WFO...LBF...CYS...FSD...UNR...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 426 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC051-171040- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DIXON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0426 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 426 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW OFK TO 45 SE FSD. ..LEITMAN..06/17/24 ATTN...WFO...LBF...CYS...FSD...UNR...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 426 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC051-171040- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DIXON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0426 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 426 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW OFK TO 45 SE FSD. ..LEITMAN..06/17/24 ATTN...WFO...LBF...CYS...FSD...UNR...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 426 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC051-171040- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DIXON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0426 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 426 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW OFK TO 45 SE FSD. ..LEITMAN..06/17/24 ATTN...WFO...LBF...CYS...FSD...UNR...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 426 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC051-171040- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DIXON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0426 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 426 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW OFK TO 45 SE FSD. ..LEITMAN..06/17/24 ATTN...WFO...LBF...CYS...FSD...UNR...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 426 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC051-171040- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DIXON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0426 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 426 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW OFK TO 45 SE FSD. ..LEITMAN..06/17/24 ATTN...WFO...LBF...CYS...FSD...UNR...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 426 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC051-171040- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DIXON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more