Aggregator

WW 0426 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 426 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW OFK TO 45 SE FSD. ..LEITMAN..06/17/24 ATTN...WFO...LBF...CYS...FSD...UNR...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 426 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC051-171040- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DIXON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 1297 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR SOUTHERN MN INTO NORTHERN IA AND WEST-CENTRAL WI
Mesoscale Discussion 1297 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Areas affected...southern MN into northern IA and west-central WI Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 170755Z - 170930Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Isolated large hail and strong/severe wind gusts 50-65 mph possible through early morning. A severe thunderstorm watch is being considered. DISCUSSION...A cluster of thunderstorms has become better organized near the southwest MN/northwest IA border over the past hour. This activity is occurring closer to a surface boundary and on the nose of a 35 kt southwesterly low-level jet. Sufficient instability, steep midlevel lapse rates, and effective shear magnitudes greater than 35 kt will support strong to severe thunderstorms into early morning. A severe thunderstorm watch will likely be needed soon to address this increasing severe risk. ..Leitman/Guyer.. 06/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD... LAT...LON 42969651 43779631 44399567 44579518 45239266 45069112 44449065 43799085 43289164 42839330 42609495 42619622 42969651 Read more

WW 426 SEVERE TSTM NE SD 170305Z - 171100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 426 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1005 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Western and Northern Nebraska Southern and Southeastern South Dakota * Effective this Sunday night and Monday morning from 1005 PM until 600 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Scattered to numerous elevated thunderstorms are forecast to develop as a low-level jet intensifies over the central Great Plains late this evening into tonight. The stronger thunderstorms will be capable of mainly a risk for large to very large hail (1 to 2 inches in diameter) and perhaps a more isolated threat for severe gusts. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles north and south of a line from 10 miles north of Scottsbluff NE to 20 miles north northeast of Sioux Falls SD. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 425... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Smith Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 201200Z - 251200Z ...DISCUSSION... Models are in good agreement showing minimal severe potential for much of the period, with generally weak winds aloft across the CONUS and an upper high over much of the East. There is some indication that the northern-stream may become more active along the US/CA border starting around Saturday/D6 or Sunday/D7, mainly from the upper MS Valley across the Great Lakes. Instability would appear to be weak to moderate, and at least a low threat of severe storms may materialize from MN to MI. Should such a trough occur, a strong storm threat could extend into the Northeast as well toward Monday/D8. Otherwise, the weak winds aloft and generally high heights should preclude much potential across the remainder of the CONUS through the period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 201200Z - 251200Z ...DISCUSSION... Models are in good agreement showing minimal severe potential for much of the period, with generally weak winds aloft across the CONUS and an upper high over much of the East. There is some indication that the northern-stream may become more active along the US/CA border starting around Saturday/D6 or Sunday/D7, mainly from the upper MS Valley across the Great Lakes. Instability would appear to be weak to moderate, and at least a low threat of severe storms may materialize from MN to MI. Should such a trough occur, a strong storm threat could extend into the Northeast as well toward Monday/D8. Otherwise, the weak winds aloft and generally high heights should preclude much potential across the remainder of the CONUS through the period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 201200Z - 251200Z ...DISCUSSION... Models are in good agreement showing minimal severe potential for much of the period, with generally weak winds aloft across the CONUS and an upper high over much of the East. There is some indication that the northern-stream may become more active along the US/CA border starting around Saturday/D6 or Sunday/D7, mainly from the upper MS Valley across the Great Lakes. Instability would appear to be weak to moderate, and at least a low threat of severe storms may materialize from MN to MI. Should such a trough occur, a strong storm threat could extend into the Northeast as well toward Monday/D8. Otherwise, the weak winds aloft and generally high heights should preclude much potential across the remainder of the CONUS through the period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 201200Z - 251200Z ...DISCUSSION... Models are in good agreement showing minimal severe potential for much of the period, with generally weak winds aloft across the CONUS and an upper high over much of the East. There is some indication that the northern-stream may become more active along the US/CA border starting around Saturday/D6 or Sunday/D7, mainly from the upper MS Valley across the Great Lakes. Instability would appear to be weak to moderate, and at least a low threat of severe storms may materialize from MN to MI. Should such a trough occur, a strong storm threat could extend into the Northeast as well toward Monday/D8. Otherwise, the weak winds aloft and generally high heights should preclude much potential across the remainder of the CONUS through the period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 201200Z - 251200Z ...DISCUSSION... Models are in good agreement showing minimal severe potential for much of the period, with generally weak winds aloft across the CONUS and an upper high over much of the East. There is some indication that the northern-stream may become more active along the US/CA border starting around Saturday/D6 or Sunday/D7, mainly from the upper MS Valley across the Great Lakes. Instability would appear to be weak to moderate, and at least a low threat of severe storms may materialize from MN to MI. Should such a trough occur, a strong storm threat could extend into the Northeast as well toward Monday/D8. Otherwise, the weak winds aloft and generally high heights should preclude much potential across the remainder of the CONUS through the period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 201200Z - 251200Z ...DISCUSSION... Models are in good agreement showing minimal severe potential for much of the period, with generally weak winds aloft across the CONUS and an upper high over much of the East. There is some indication that the northern-stream may become more active along the US/CA border starting around Saturday/D6 or Sunday/D7, mainly from the upper MS Valley across the Great Lakes. Instability would appear to be weak to moderate, and at least a low threat of severe storms may materialize from MN to MI. Should such a trough occur, a strong storm threat could extend into the Northeast as well toward Monday/D8. Otherwise, the weak winds aloft and generally high heights should preclude much potential across the remainder of the CONUS through the period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 201200Z - 251200Z ...DISCUSSION... Models are in good agreement showing minimal severe potential for much of the period, with generally weak winds aloft across the CONUS and an upper high over much of the East. There is some indication that the northern-stream may become more active along the US/CA border starting around Saturday/D6 or Sunday/D7, mainly from the upper MS Valley across the Great Lakes. Instability would appear to be weak to moderate, and at least a low threat of severe storms may materialize from MN to MI. Should such a trough occur, a strong storm threat could extend into the Northeast as well toward Monday/D8. Otherwise, the weak winds aloft and generally high heights should preclude much potential across the remainder of the CONUS through the period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 201200Z - 251200Z ...DISCUSSION... Models are in good agreement showing minimal severe potential for much of the period, with generally weak winds aloft across the CONUS and an upper high over much of the East. There is some indication that the northern-stream may become more active along the US/CA border starting around Saturday/D6 or Sunday/D7, mainly from the upper MS Valley across the Great Lakes. Instability would appear to be weak to moderate, and at least a low threat of severe storms may materialize from MN to MI. Should such a trough occur, a strong storm threat could extend into the Northeast as well toward Monday/D8. Otherwise, the weak winds aloft and generally high heights should preclude much potential across the remainder of the CONUS through the period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 201200Z - 251200Z ...DISCUSSION... Models are in good agreement showing minimal severe potential for much of the period, with generally weak winds aloft across the CONUS and an upper high over much of the East. There is some indication that the northern-stream may become more active along the US/CA border starting around Saturday/D6 or Sunday/D7, mainly from the upper MS Valley across the Great Lakes. Instability would appear to be weak to moderate, and at least a low threat of severe storms may materialize from MN to MI. Should such a trough occur, a strong storm threat could extend into the Northeast as well toward Monday/D8. Otherwise, the weak winds aloft and generally high heights should preclude much potential across the remainder of the CONUS through the period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 201200Z - 251200Z ...DISCUSSION... Models are in good agreement showing minimal severe potential for much of the period, with generally weak winds aloft across the CONUS and an upper high over much of the East. There is some indication that the northern-stream may become more active along the US/CA border starting around Saturday/D6 or Sunday/D7, mainly from the upper MS Valley across the Great Lakes. Instability would appear to be weak to moderate, and at least a low threat of severe storms may materialize from MN to MI. Should such a trough occur, a strong storm threat could extend into the Northeast as well toward Monday/D8. Otherwise, the weak winds aloft and generally high heights should preclude much potential across the remainder of the CONUS through the period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 201200Z - 251200Z ...DISCUSSION... Models are in good agreement showing minimal severe potential for much of the period, with generally weak winds aloft across the CONUS and an upper high over much of the East. There is some indication that the northern-stream may become more active along the US/CA border starting around Saturday/D6 or Sunday/D7, mainly from the upper MS Valley across the Great Lakes. Instability would appear to be weak to moderate, and at least a low threat of severe storms may materialize from MN to MI. Should such a trough occur, a strong storm threat could extend into the Northeast as well toward Monday/D8. Otherwise, the weak winds aloft and generally high heights should preclude much potential across the remainder of the CONUS through the period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 201200Z - 251200Z ...DISCUSSION... Models are in good agreement showing minimal severe potential for much of the period, with generally weak winds aloft across the CONUS and an upper high over much of the East. There is some indication that the northern-stream may become more active along the US/CA border starting around Saturday/D6 or Sunday/D7, mainly from the upper MS Valley across the Great Lakes. Instability would appear to be weak to moderate, and at least a low threat of severe storms may materialize from MN to MI. Should such a trough occur, a strong storm threat could extend into the Northeast as well toward Monday/D8. Otherwise, the weak winds aloft and generally high heights should preclude much potential across the remainder of the CONUS through the period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 201200Z - 251200Z ...DISCUSSION... Models are in good agreement showing minimal severe potential for much of the period, with generally weak winds aloft across the CONUS and an upper high over much of the East. There is some indication that the northern-stream may become more active along the US/CA border starting around Saturday/D6 or Sunday/D7, mainly from the upper MS Valley across the Great Lakes. Instability would appear to be weak to moderate, and at least a low threat of severe storms may materialize from MN to MI. Should such a trough occur, a strong storm threat could extend into the Northeast as well toward Monday/D8. Otherwise, the weak winds aloft and generally high heights should preclude much potential across the remainder of the CONUS through the period. Read more

WW 0426 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 426 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNW BUB TO 5 NE MHN TO 10 NNE VTN TO 25 SE FSD. ..LEITMAN..06/17/24 ATTN...WFO...LBF...CYS...FSD...UNR...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 426 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC015-017-031-051-089-103-149-170940- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOYD BROWN CHERRY DIXON HOLT KEYA PAHA ROCK SDC009-023-027-083-135-170940- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BON HOMME CHARLES MIX CLAY LINCOLN YANKTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0427 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0427 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0426 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 426 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSW MHN TO 20 N MHN TO 25 N VTN TO 15 SSW 9V9 TO 10 NW MHE TO 30 NNE FSD. ..LEITMAN..06/17/24 ATTN...WFO...LBF...CYS...FSD...UNR...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 426 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC015-017-031-051-089-091-103-117-149-171-170840- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOYD BROWN CHERRY DIXON HOLT HOOKER KEYA PAHA MCPHERSON ROCK THOMAS SDC003-009-015-023-027-035-043-053-061-067-083-087-099-121-123- 125-135-170840- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AURORA BON HOMME BRULE CHARLES MIX CLAY DAVISON DOUGLAS GREGORY HANSON HUTCHINSON LINCOLN MCCOOK MINNEHAHA TODD TRIPP TURNER YANKTON Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not currently forecast for Wednesday. Portions of the Texas Coast will need to be monitored closely for potential tropical weather influences going forward. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A strong upper ridge will exist over the northeastern states on Wednesday, providing hot weather. This ridge will deflect an upper trough over MN early northward into Ontario and toward Hudson Bay, then eastward into Quebec through Thursday morning. At the surface, a residual front will extend roughly from the upper Great Lakes into the central Plains, providing weak low-level lift. While bouts of rain and thunderstorms are expected throughout the day along this zone, weak shear and warming temperatures aloft preclude any low severe probabilities this far out in time. To the south, an area of disturbed weather currently has a 60% probability of cyclone formation in the next couple days per NHC guidance, and this could potentially enhance low-level shear and potentially affect the TX Coast. If this occurs, low tornado probabilities may be needed in this area in later outlooks. ..Jewell.. 06/17/2024 Read more