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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...Update... No significant changes were made to the ongoing forecast. Please see the previous discussion below for details. A small Elevated area was considered for the Mohave Valley of NV and CA for the morning hours Tuesday, when northerly sustained winds are expected to exceed 20 mph. However, the duration of RH less than 15-20 percent should only overlap these higher wind speeds for 1-2 hours. ..Barnes.. 06/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024/ ...Synopsis... A trough will lift northward across the Northern Rockies into the northern Plains on Tuesday. Heights will rise across the southwestern US with weakening southwest gradients and lighter winds returning. Areas of dry southwesterly flow will linger across portions of central/eastern New Mexico. In this region, afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap winds around 15 mph for a period of Elevated fire weather Tuesday afternoon. Localized breezes and Elevated fire weather concerns may extend further southwest into western New Mexico and southern Arizona. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...Update... No significant changes were made to the ongoing forecast. Please see the previous discussion below for details. A small Elevated area was considered for the Mohave Valley of NV and CA for the morning hours Tuesday, when northerly sustained winds are expected to exceed 20 mph. However, the duration of RH less than 15-20 percent should only overlap these higher wind speeds for 1-2 hours. ..Barnes.. 06/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024/ ...Synopsis... A trough will lift northward across the Northern Rockies into the northern Plains on Tuesday. Heights will rise across the southwestern US with weakening southwest gradients and lighter winds returning. Areas of dry southwesterly flow will linger across portions of central/eastern New Mexico. In this region, afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap winds around 15 mph for a period of Elevated fire weather Tuesday afternoon. Localized breezes and Elevated fire weather concerns may extend further southwest into western New Mexico and southern Arizona. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...Update... No significant changes were made to the ongoing forecast. Please see the previous discussion below for details. A small Elevated area was considered for the Mohave Valley of NV and CA for the morning hours Tuesday, when northerly sustained winds are expected to exceed 20 mph. However, the duration of RH less than 15-20 percent should only overlap these higher wind speeds for 1-2 hours. ..Barnes.. 06/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024/ ...Synopsis... A trough will lift northward across the Northern Rockies into the northern Plains on Tuesday. Heights will rise across the southwestern US with weakening southwest gradients and lighter winds returning. Areas of dry southwesterly flow will linger across portions of central/eastern New Mexico. In this region, afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap winds around 15 mph for a period of Elevated fire weather Tuesday afternoon. Localized breezes and Elevated fire weather concerns may extend further southwest into western New Mexico and southern Arizona. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...Update... No significant changes were made to the ongoing forecast. Please see the previous discussion below for details. A small Elevated area was considered for the Mohave Valley of NV and CA for the morning hours Tuesday, when northerly sustained winds are expected to exceed 20 mph. However, the duration of RH less than 15-20 percent should only overlap these higher wind speeds for 1-2 hours. ..Barnes.. 06/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024/ ...Synopsis... A trough will lift northward across the Northern Rockies into the northern Plains on Tuesday. Heights will rise across the southwestern US with weakening southwest gradients and lighter winds returning. Areas of dry southwesterly flow will linger across portions of central/eastern New Mexico. In this region, afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap winds around 15 mph for a period of Elevated fire weather Tuesday afternoon. Localized breezes and Elevated fire weather concerns may extend further southwest into western New Mexico and southern Arizona. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...Update... No significant changes were made to the ongoing forecast. Please see the previous discussion below for details. A small Elevated area was considered for the Mohave Valley of NV and CA for the morning hours Tuesday, when northerly sustained winds are expected to exceed 20 mph. However, the duration of RH less than 15-20 percent should only overlap these higher wind speeds for 1-2 hours. ..Barnes.. 06/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024/ ...Synopsis... A trough will lift northward across the Northern Rockies into the northern Plains on Tuesday. Heights will rise across the southwestern US with weakening southwest gradients and lighter winds returning. Areas of dry southwesterly flow will linger across portions of central/eastern New Mexico. In this region, afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap winds around 15 mph for a period of Elevated fire weather Tuesday afternoon. Localized breezes and Elevated fire weather concerns may extend further southwest into western New Mexico and southern Arizona. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...Update... No significant changes were made to the ongoing forecast. Please see the previous discussion below for details. A small Elevated area was considered for the Mohave Valley of NV and CA for the morning hours Tuesday, when northerly sustained winds are expected to exceed 20 mph. However, the duration of RH less than 15-20 percent should only overlap these higher wind speeds for 1-2 hours. ..Barnes.. 06/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024/ ...Synopsis... A trough will lift northward across the Northern Rockies into the northern Plains on Tuesday. Heights will rise across the southwestern US with weakening southwest gradients and lighter winds returning. Areas of dry southwesterly flow will linger across portions of central/eastern New Mexico. In this region, afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap winds around 15 mph for a period of Elevated fire weather Tuesday afternoon. Localized breezes and Elevated fire weather concerns may extend further southwest into western New Mexico and southern Arizona. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...Update... No significant changes were made to the ongoing forecast. Please see the previous discussion below for details. A small Elevated area was considered for the Mohave Valley of NV and CA for the morning hours Tuesday, when northerly sustained winds are expected to exceed 20 mph. However, the duration of RH less than 15-20 percent should only overlap these higher wind speeds for 1-2 hours. ..Barnes.. 06/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024/ ...Synopsis... A trough will lift northward across the Northern Rockies into the northern Plains on Tuesday. Heights will rise across the southwestern US with weakening southwest gradients and lighter winds returning. Areas of dry southwesterly flow will linger across portions of central/eastern New Mexico. In this region, afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap winds around 15 mph for a period of Elevated fire weather Tuesday afternoon. Localized breezes and Elevated fire weather concerns may extend further southwest into western New Mexico and southern Arizona. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...Update... No significant changes were made to the ongoing forecast. Please see the previous discussion below for details. A small Elevated area was considered for the Mohave Valley of NV and CA for the morning hours Tuesday, when northerly sustained winds are expected to exceed 20 mph. However, the duration of RH less than 15-20 percent should only overlap these higher wind speeds for 1-2 hours. ..Barnes.. 06/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024/ ...Synopsis... A trough will lift northward across the Northern Rockies into the northern Plains on Tuesday. Heights will rise across the southwestern US with weakening southwest gradients and lighter winds returning. Areas of dry southwesterly flow will linger across portions of central/eastern New Mexico. In this region, afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap winds around 15 mph for a period of Elevated fire weather Tuesday afternoon. Localized breezes and Elevated fire weather concerns may extend further southwest into western New Mexico and southern Arizona. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...Update... No significant changes were made to the ongoing forecast. Please see the previous discussion below for details. A small Elevated area was considered for the Mohave Valley of NV and CA for the morning hours Tuesday, when northerly sustained winds are expected to exceed 20 mph. However, the duration of RH less than 15-20 percent should only overlap these higher wind speeds for 1-2 hours. ..Barnes.. 06/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024/ ...Synopsis... A trough will lift northward across the Northern Rockies into the northern Plains on Tuesday. Heights will rise across the southwestern US with weakening southwest gradients and lighter winds returning. Areas of dry southwesterly flow will linger across portions of central/eastern New Mexico. In this region, afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap winds around 15 mph for a period of Elevated fire weather Tuesday afternoon. Localized breezes and Elevated fire weather concerns may extend further southwest into western New Mexico and southern Arizona. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 1301 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 428... FOR FAR NORTHEAST WI INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN UPPER MI
Mesoscale Discussion 1301 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Areas affected...Far Northeast WI into Central/Eastern Upper MI Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 428... Valid 171628Z - 171800Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 428 continues. SUMMARY...Threat for damaging gusts and/or hail will continue for the next hour or so. Downstream watch across the eastern UP not currently anticipated. DISCUSSION...Loosely organized convective cluster continues to progress northeastward from far northeastern WI into central Upper MI, supported by a eastward-progressing cold front. Modest destabilization has occurred downstream across central Upper MI, with mid/upper 70s temperatures amid upper 60s/low 70s dewpoints current in place. This buoyancy should help maintain the ongoing cluster, with some modest intensification possible over the next hour or so. Damaging gusts will remain the primary risk, but hail is possible with any more cellular development that occurs ahead of the cluster. Given the increasing cloud cover, destabilization is more uncertain farther east into eastern Upper MI, with the storms expected to gradually weaken as they encounter the increasing stable airmass farther east. As such, a downstream watch across the eastern UP appears unlikely. ..Mosier.. 06/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB... LAT...LON 45078885 46158823 46688774 46858639 46248591 44598754 44298888 45078885 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 171738
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Mon Jun 17 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible Tuesday afternoon over parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley southwestward into parts of Nebraska and Kansas. ...Synopsis... Highly amplified upper flow will persist over the U.S. Day 2/Tuesday, with a ridge centered over the Mid-Atlantic region, and troughing entrenched over the West. A short-wave trough embedded in the broader-scale cyclonic flow is expected to shift out of the eastern Montana area and across the Dakotas through the period. This progression will be reflected at the surface as a surface cold front advances steadily eastward across the northern Plains, and more slowly southeastward across the Mid-Missouri Valley/Central Plains. Tuesday night, the front should cross the Upper Mississippi Valley and move into the western Upper Great Lakes region. ...Upper Mississippi Valley area southwestward to Kansas... Lingering/overnight convection may be ongoing over the start of the period in the vicinity of Minnesota, but should gradually diminish through the day. Meanwhile, a frontal wave is forecast to shift northeastward through the day from eastern South Dakota across northwestern Minnesota, along an advancing cold front. Daytime heating ahead of the front will drive afternoon destabilization, with 1000 to 2000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE evolving along the front. This should support storm development from northern Minnesota southwestward to west-central Kansas in the 18/20Z to 18/22Z time frame. While stronger flow aloft will remain displaced to the cool side of the front, amply strong mid-level southwesterlies atop the frontal zone should support shear sufficient for multicell/some supercell organization. Resulting risks for hail/wind support continuation of SLGT risk across this region. Potential should maximize through late afternoon/early evening, before diminishing after dark. ..Goss.. 06/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible Tuesday afternoon over parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley southwestward into parts of Nebraska and Kansas. ...Synopsis... Highly amplified upper flow will persist over the U.S. Day 2/Tuesday, with a ridge centered over the Mid-Atlantic region, and troughing entrenched over the West. A short-wave trough embedded in the broader-scale cyclonic flow is expected to shift out of the eastern Montana area and across the Dakotas through the period. This progression will be reflected at the surface as a surface cold front advances steadily eastward across the northern Plains, and more slowly southeastward across the Mid-Missouri Valley/Central Plains. Tuesday night, the front should cross the Upper Mississippi Valley and move into the western Upper Great Lakes region. ...Upper Mississippi Valley area southwestward to Kansas... Lingering/overnight convection may be ongoing over the start of the period in the vicinity of Minnesota, but should gradually diminish through the day. Meanwhile, a frontal wave is forecast to shift northeastward through the day from eastern South Dakota across northwestern Minnesota, along an advancing cold front. Daytime heating ahead of the front will drive afternoon destabilization, with 1000 to 2000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE evolving along the front. This should support storm development from northern Minnesota southwestward to west-central Kansas in the 18/20Z to 18/22Z time frame. While stronger flow aloft will remain displaced to the cool side of the front, amply strong mid-level southwesterlies atop the frontal zone should support shear sufficient for multicell/some supercell organization. Resulting risks for hail/wind support continuation of SLGT risk across this region. Potential should maximize through late afternoon/early evening, before diminishing after dark. ..Goss.. 06/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible Tuesday afternoon over parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley southwestward into parts of Nebraska and Kansas. ...Synopsis... Highly amplified upper flow will persist over the U.S. Day 2/Tuesday, with a ridge centered over the Mid-Atlantic region, and troughing entrenched over the West. A short-wave trough embedded in the broader-scale cyclonic flow is expected to shift out of the eastern Montana area and across the Dakotas through the period. This progression will be reflected at the surface as a surface cold front advances steadily eastward across the northern Plains, and more slowly southeastward across the Mid-Missouri Valley/Central Plains. Tuesday night, the front should cross the Upper Mississippi Valley and move into the western Upper Great Lakes region. ...Upper Mississippi Valley area southwestward to Kansas... Lingering/overnight convection may be ongoing over the start of the period in the vicinity of Minnesota, but should gradually diminish through the day. Meanwhile, a frontal wave is forecast to shift northeastward through the day from eastern South Dakota across northwestern Minnesota, along an advancing cold front. Daytime heating ahead of the front will drive afternoon destabilization, with 1000 to 2000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE evolving along the front. This should support storm development from northern Minnesota southwestward to west-central Kansas in the 18/20Z to 18/22Z time frame. While stronger flow aloft will remain displaced to the cool side of the front, amply strong mid-level southwesterlies atop the frontal zone should support shear sufficient for multicell/some supercell organization. Resulting risks for hail/wind support continuation of SLGT risk across this region. Potential should maximize through late afternoon/early evening, before diminishing after dark. ..Goss.. 06/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible Tuesday afternoon over parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley southwestward into parts of Nebraska and Kansas. ...Synopsis... Highly amplified upper flow will persist over the U.S. Day 2/Tuesday, with a ridge centered over the Mid-Atlantic region, and troughing entrenched over the West. A short-wave trough embedded in the broader-scale cyclonic flow is expected to shift out of the eastern Montana area and across the Dakotas through the period. This progression will be reflected at the surface as a surface cold front advances steadily eastward across the northern Plains, and more slowly southeastward across the Mid-Missouri Valley/Central Plains. Tuesday night, the front should cross the Upper Mississippi Valley and move into the western Upper Great Lakes region. ...Upper Mississippi Valley area southwestward to Kansas... Lingering/overnight convection may be ongoing over the start of the period in the vicinity of Minnesota, but should gradually diminish through the day. Meanwhile, a frontal wave is forecast to shift northeastward through the day from eastern South Dakota across northwestern Minnesota, along an advancing cold front. Daytime heating ahead of the front will drive afternoon destabilization, with 1000 to 2000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE evolving along the front. This should support storm development from northern Minnesota southwestward to west-central Kansas in the 18/20Z to 18/22Z time frame. While stronger flow aloft will remain displaced to the cool side of the front, amply strong mid-level southwesterlies atop the frontal zone should support shear sufficient for multicell/some supercell organization. Resulting risks for hail/wind support continuation of SLGT risk across this region. Potential should maximize through late afternoon/early evening, before diminishing after dark. ..Goss.. 06/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible Tuesday afternoon over parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley southwestward into parts of Nebraska and Kansas. ...Synopsis... Highly amplified upper flow will persist over the U.S. Day 2/Tuesday, with a ridge centered over the Mid-Atlantic region, and troughing entrenched over the West. A short-wave trough embedded in the broader-scale cyclonic flow is expected to shift out of the eastern Montana area and across the Dakotas through the period. This progression will be reflected at the surface as a surface cold front advances steadily eastward across the northern Plains, and more slowly southeastward across the Mid-Missouri Valley/Central Plains. Tuesday night, the front should cross the Upper Mississippi Valley and move into the western Upper Great Lakes region. ...Upper Mississippi Valley area southwestward to Kansas... Lingering/overnight convection may be ongoing over the start of the period in the vicinity of Minnesota, but should gradually diminish through the day. Meanwhile, a frontal wave is forecast to shift northeastward through the day from eastern South Dakota across northwestern Minnesota, along an advancing cold front. Daytime heating ahead of the front will drive afternoon destabilization, with 1000 to 2000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE evolving along the front. This should support storm development from northern Minnesota southwestward to west-central Kansas in the 18/20Z to 18/22Z time frame. While stronger flow aloft will remain displaced to the cool side of the front, amply strong mid-level southwesterlies atop the frontal zone should support shear sufficient for multicell/some supercell organization. Resulting risks for hail/wind support continuation of SLGT risk across this region. Potential should maximize through late afternoon/early evening, before diminishing after dark. ..Goss.. 06/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible Tuesday afternoon over parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley southwestward into parts of Nebraska and Kansas. ...Synopsis... Highly amplified upper flow will persist over the U.S. Day 2/Tuesday, with a ridge centered over the Mid-Atlantic region, and troughing entrenched over the West. A short-wave trough embedded in the broader-scale cyclonic flow is expected to shift out of the eastern Montana area and across the Dakotas through the period. This progression will be reflected at the surface as a surface cold front advances steadily eastward across the northern Plains, and more slowly southeastward across the Mid-Missouri Valley/Central Plains. Tuesday night, the front should cross the Upper Mississippi Valley and move into the western Upper Great Lakes region. ...Upper Mississippi Valley area southwestward to Kansas... Lingering/overnight convection may be ongoing over the start of the period in the vicinity of Minnesota, but should gradually diminish through the day. Meanwhile, a frontal wave is forecast to shift northeastward through the day from eastern South Dakota across northwestern Minnesota, along an advancing cold front. Daytime heating ahead of the front will drive afternoon destabilization, with 1000 to 2000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE evolving along the front. This should support storm development from northern Minnesota southwestward to west-central Kansas in the 18/20Z to 18/22Z time frame. While stronger flow aloft will remain displaced to the cool side of the front, amply strong mid-level southwesterlies atop the frontal zone should support shear sufficient for multicell/some supercell organization. Resulting risks for hail/wind support continuation of SLGT risk across this region. Potential should maximize through late afternoon/early evening, before diminishing after dark. ..Goss.. 06/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible Tuesday afternoon over parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley southwestward into parts of Nebraska and Kansas. ...Synopsis... Highly amplified upper flow will persist over the U.S. Day 2/Tuesday, with a ridge centered over the Mid-Atlantic region, and troughing entrenched over the West. A short-wave trough embedded in the broader-scale cyclonic flow is expected to shift out of the eastern Montana area and across the Dakotas through the period. This progression will be reflected at the surface as a surface cold front advances steadily eastward across the northern Plains, and more slowly southeastward across the Mid-Missouri Valley/Central Plains. Tuesday night, the front should cross the Upper Mississippi Valley and move into the western Upper Great Lakes region. ...Upper Mississippi Valley area southwestward to Kansas... Lingering/overnight convection may be ongoing over the start of the period in the vicinity of Minnesota, but should gradually diminish through the day. Meanwhile, a frontal wave is forecast to shift northeastward through the day from eastern South Dakota across northwestern Minnesota, along an advancing cold front. Daytime heating ahead of the front will drive afternoon destabilization, with 1000 to 2000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE evolving along the front. This should support storm development from northern Minnesota southwestward to west-central Kansas in the 18/20Z to 18/22Z time frame. While stronger flow aloft will remain displaced to the cool side of the front, amply strong mid-level southwesterlies atop the frontal zone should support shear sufficient for multicell/some supercell organization. Resulting risks for hail/wind support continuation of SLGT risk across this region. Potential should maximize through late afternoon/early evening, before diminishing after dark. ..Goss.. 06/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible Tuesday afternoon over parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley southwestward into parts of Nebraska and Kansas. ...Synopsis... Highly amplified upper flow will persist over the U.S. Day 2/Tuesday, with a ridge centered over the Mid-Atlantic region, and troughing entrenched over the West. A short-wave trough embedded in the broader-scale cyclonic flow is expected to shift out of the eastern Montana area and across the Dakotas through the period. This progression will be reflected at the surface as a surface cold front advances steadily eastward across the northern Plains, and more slowly southeastward across the Mid-Missouri Valley/Central Plains. Tuesday night, the front should cross the Upper Mississippi Valley and move into the western Upper Great Lakes region. ...Upper Mississippi Valley area southwestward to Kansas... Lingering/overnight convection may be ongoing over the start of the period in the vicinity of Minnesota, but should gradually diminish through the day. Meanwhile, a frontal wave is forecast to shift northeastward through the day from eastern South Dakota across northwestern Minnesota, along an advancing cold front. Daytime heating ahead of the front will drive afternoon destabilization, with 1000 to 2000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE evolving along the front. This should support storm development from northern Minnesota southwestward to west-central Kansas in the 18/20Z to 18/22Z time frame. While stronger flow aloft will remain displaced to the cool side of the front, amply strong mid-level southwesterlies atop the frontal zone should support shear sufficient for multicell/some supercell organization. Resulting risks for hail/wind support continuation of SLGT risk across this region. Potential should maximize through late afternoon/early evening, before diminishing after dark. ..Goss.. 06/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible Tuesday afternoon over parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley southwestward into parts of Nebraska and Kansas. ...Synopsis... Highly amplified upper flow will persist over the U.S. Day 2/Tuesday, with a ridge centered over the Mid-Atlantic region, and troughing entrenched over the West. A short-wave trough embedded in the broader-scale cyclonic flow is expected to shift out of the eastern Montana area and across the Dakotas through the period. This progression will be reflected at the surface as a surface cold front advances steadily eastward across the northern Plains, and more slowly southeastward across the Mid-Missouri Valley/Central Plains. Tuesday night, the front should cross the Upper Mississippi Valley and move into the western Upper Great Lakes region. ...Upper Mississippi Valley area southwestward to Kansas... Lingering/overnight convection may be ongoing over the start of the period in the vicinity of Minnesota, but should gradually diminish through the day. Meanwhile, a frontal wave is forecast to shift northeastward through the day from eastern South Dakota across northwestern Minnesota, along an advancing cold front. Daytime heating ahead of the front will drive afternoon destabilization, with 1000 to 2000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE evolving along the front. This should support storm development from northern Minnesota southwestward to west-central Kansas in the 18/20Z to 18/22Z time frame. While stronger flow aloft will remain displaced to the cool side of the front, amply strong mid-level southwesterlies atop the frontal zone should support shear sufficient for multicell/some supercell organization. Resulting risks for hail/wind support continuation of SLGT risk across this region. Potential should maximize through late afternoon/early evening, before diminishing after dark. ..Goss.. 06/17/2024 Read more