Aggregator

WW 430 SEVERE TSTM MT WY 172230Z - 180500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 430 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 430 PM MDT Mon Jun 17 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southeastern Montana East-central and northeastern Wyoming * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 430 PM until 1100 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms should continue to develop on the east side of higher terrain around the Bighorns and northern Laramie Range, and move northward to northeastward. Activity should cross a narrow corridor of favorable instability and shear for large hail and severe gusts to result, before weakening closer to the Dakotas border. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles east and west of a line from 110 miles south of Gillette WY to 30 miles west northwest of Baker MT. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 429... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 21030. ...Edwards Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 172319
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Mon Jun 17 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Brown

WW 0430 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0430 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

Medina Lake has dropped to 2.4% of capacity, its lowest in the last 60 years. The depleted lake has a dire effect on local businesses. One café worked to increase its social media presence and began online sales to stay open. Homeowners have also seen a drop in property values with the lake so low. WOAI News 4 San Antonio (Texas), June 13, 2024

Arizona's searing hot summers and ongoing drought leave wildlife in Tucson without enough drinking water. The Arizona Game and Fish Department is addressing the need by maintaining 3,000 wildlife waters across the state. KGUN 9 Online (Tucson, Ariz.), June 12, 2024

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Jun 17 22:16:08 UTC 2024.

WW 0429 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0429 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0429 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0429 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 429 SEVERE TSTM IA MN WI 172205Z - 180500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 429 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 505 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northern Iowa Southern Minnesota Southwestern Wisconsin * Effective this Monday afternoon from 505 PM until Midnight CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage the next few hours near an outflow-reinforced warm front that will shift northward through the watch area. In addition to supercell(s) with large hail and a localized/conditional tornado threat, broader severe-hail and severe-gust threats also are apparent on either side of the boundary. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles south southwest of Fairmont MN to 45 miles east southeast of La Crosse WI. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 26025. ...Edwards Read more

MD 1306 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN WYOMING...SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA AND FAR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1306 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Areas affected...portions of eastern Wyoming...southeastern Montana and far western South Dakota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 172045Z - 172215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to develop off the Bighorns and higher terrain later this afternoon. A few supercells may evolve with a risk for large hail and damaging winds. There remains some uncertainty on the southern and eastern extent of the severe risk, but a WW is being considered. DISCUSSION...Across portions of central and northeastern WY, afternoon visible imagery showed increasing vertical development of cumulus near the Bighorn Mountains and higher terrain. Over the last several hours, diurnal heating and upslope flow have increased ahead of an approaching upper trough and a deepening surface low over south-central WY. As forcing for ascent increases, remaining inhibition will quickly be removed supporting thunderstorm development this afternoon. Confidence in convective development remains highest across north-central WY near the Bighorns where low-level upslope flow is maximized beneath the coldest mid-level temperatures. However, strong low-level mass response is occurring ahead of the deepening surface low over southeastern WY which could support an isolated storm or two farther south. While low-level moisture is not overly deep or rich, low 50s F surface dewpoints have surged westward into eastern WY and portions of southern MT. With 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE in place, a few stronger updrafts are likely to evolve as the initial convection moves off of the higher terrain. There remains some uncertainty on the eastward extent of destabilization given lingering cloud cover, though clearing is ongoing. Strong flow aloft ahead of the upper trough is supporting robust vertical shear profiles with relatively long hodographs and 50+ kt of effective shear. More than sufficient to support organized rotating updrafts, these storms will likely be capable of large hail and damaging gusts. A brief tornado can also not be ruled out given some low-level veering and potential for terrain enhanced low-level shear. Given the potential for a few supercells capable of hail and damaging winds, a new WW may be needed in the next 1-2 hours. ..Lyons/Halbert/Gleason.. 06/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW... LAT...LON 42870395 42480400 42290421 42250460 42740553 43680688 44030721 45480711 45890652 46080591 46080526 45960471 45570434 45160407 44710385 44360382 43780390 42870395 Read more

No watches are valid as of Mon Jun 17 22:01:01 UTC 2024.

MD 1304 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHERN/EASTERN WI
Mesoscale Discussion 1304 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Areas affected...Southern/Eastern WI Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 172000Z - 172200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms capable of isolated hail and/or damaging gusts are possible across southern WI this afternoon and evening. Trends will be monitored for possible watch issuance. DISCUSSION...Temperatures have warmed in the upper 80s/low 90s across southern WI/eastern WI, amid dewpoints in the upper 60s/low 70s. These very warm and moist surface conditions are helping support strong buoyancy, despite relatively poor lapse rates across the region. Recent mesoanalysis estimates MLCAPE is around 2000 to 2500 J/kg, with little to no convective inhibition. Low-level convergence along and ahead of a stationary boundary extending from OCQ (about 30 miles north-northeast of GRB) southwestward through LNR in far southwest WI is contributing to convective initiation within this unstable airmass. Vertical shear is modest across the region, with effective bulk shear less than 20 kt. This lack of stronger shear is expected to promote a predominantly multicellular mode, but a few updrafts could still become strong enough to produce severe hail and/or a strong, water-loaded downburst. Overall coverage of severe is currently expected to remain isolated, limiting the need for a watch, but convective trends will be monitored closely. ..Mosier/Gleason.. 06/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...ARX... LAT...LON 42619033 42979067 43759005 44508922 45008830 44688754 44238745 43648768 42908779 42608825 42548939 42619033 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0430 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 191200Z - 251200Z ...Synopsis... By mid week, large-scale troughing is anticipated from the Pacific coastline and northward/northeastward into central Canada. Further east, a broad mid to upper-level ridge will expand westward over the eastern half of the CONUS. This pattern will remain relatively unchanged through the end of the week. A fetch of deeper moisture along the southwestern periphery of the mid-level ridge will make its way westward D3/Wednesday across most of NM. Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will accompany this moisture, upslope flow, and surface convergence. Some wetting rains may occur across the eastern half of NM within this deeper moisture, while isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible over the Lower Colorado River Basin, and just eastward, during the afternoon and evening. Much farther east across most of FL, easterly sustained surface winds around 15 mph should develop D3/Wednesday, although the opportunity for RH less than 35-40 percent appears very short lived across far northern FL and the Panhandle, where less receptive fuels persist. Moisture will continue to surge west-northwestward D4/Thursday as far west as the Four Corners region, with at least low, wetting precipitation chances expanding into eastern UT. Slightly drier sub-cloud conditions further south over the Chuska Mountains and Defiance Plateau may support the opportunity for isolated dry thunder over increasingly receptive fuels. In addition to the Isolated Dry Thunder areas mentioned above, breezy south winds will likely develop D4/Thursday from central to eastern AZ. However, with overlapping RH increasing to above 15-20 percent, low critical probabilities are not warranted at this time. These breezy south winds will shift westward D5/Friday over west central AZ, but again RH will remain slightly too high, precluding the need for low critical probabilities. Increasing, deep westerly flow is appearing more likely late this weekend over the Pacific Northwest. By D7/Sunday, a mid to upper-level jet should extend through the base of shortwave trough moving onshore. Confidence has increased enough to introduce low critical probabilities east of the Cascades of WA, where drying, downslope westerly flow is anticipated. ..Barnes.. 06/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0430 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 191200Z - 251200Z ...Synopsis... By mid week, large-scale troughing is anticipated from the Pacific coastline and northward/northeastward into central Canada. Further east, a broad mid to upper-level ridge will expand westward over the eastern half of the CONUS. This pattern will remain relatively unchanged through the end of the week. A fetch of deeper moisture along the southwestern periphery of the mid-level ridge will make its way westward D3/Wednesday across most of NM. Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will accompany this moisture, upslope flow, and surface convergence. Some wetting rains may occur across the eastern half of NM within this deeper moisture, while isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible over the Lower Colorado River Basin, and just eastward, during the afternoon and evening. Much farther east across most of FL, easterly sustained surface winds around 15 mph should develop D3/Wednesday, although the opportunity for RH less than 35-40 percent appears very short lived across far northern FL and the Panhandle, where less receptive fuels persist. Moisture will continue to surge west-northwestward D4/Thursday as far west as the Four Corners region, with at least low, wetting precipitation chances expanding into eastern UT. Slightly drier sub-cloud conditions further south over the Chuska Mountains and Defiance Plateau may support the opportunity for isolated dry thunder over increasingly receptive fuels. In addition to the Isolated Dry Thunder areas mentioned above, breezy south winds will likely develop D4/Thursday from central to eastern AZ. However, with overlapping RH increasing to above 15-20 percent, low critical probabilities are not warranted at this time. These breezy south winds will shift westward D5/Friday over west central AZ, but again RH will remain slightly too high, precluding the need for low critical probabilities. Increasing, deep westerly flow is appearing more likely late this weekend over the Pacific Northwest. By D7/Sunday, a mid to upper-level jet should extend through the base of shortwave trough moving onshore. Confidence has increased enough to introduce low critical probabilities east of the Cascades of WA, where drying, downslope westerly flow is anticipated. ..Barnes.. 06/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0430 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 191200Z - 251200Z ...Synopsis... By mid week, large-scale troughing is anticipated from the Pacific coastline and northward/northeastward into central Canada. Further east, a broad mid to upper-level ridge will expand westward over the eastern half of the CONUS. This pattern will remain relatively unchanged through the end of the week. A fetch of deeper moisture along the southwestern periphery of the mid-level ridge will make its way westward D3/Wednesday across most of NM. Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will accompany this moisture, upslope flow, and surface convergence. Some wetting rains may occur across the eastern half of NM within this deeper moisture, while isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible over the Lower Colorado River Basin, and just eastward, during the afternoon and evening. Much farther east across most of FL, easterly sustained surface winds around 15 mph should develop D3/Wednesday, although the opportunity for RH less than 35-40 percent appears very short lived across far northern FL and the Panhandle, where less receptive fuels persist. Moisture will continue to surge west-northwestward D4/Thursday as far west as the Four Corners region, with at least low, wetting precipitation chances expanding into eastern UT. Slightly drier sub-cloud conditions further south over the Chuska Mountains and Defiance Plateau may support the opportunity for isolated dry thunder over increasingly receptive fuels. In addition to the Isolated Dry Thunder areas mentioned above, breezy south winds will likely develop D4/Thursday from central to eastern AZ. However, with overlapping RH increasing to above 15-20 percent, low critical probabilities are not warranted at this time. These breezy south winds will shift westward D5/Friday over west central AZ, but again RH will remain slightly too high, precluding the need for low critical probabilities. Increasing, deep westerly flow is appearing more likely late this weekend over the Pacific Northwest. By D7/Sunday, a mid to upper-level jet should extend through the base of shortwave trough moving onshore. Confidence has increased enough to introduce low critical probabilities east of the Cascades of WA, where drying, downslope westerly flow is anticipated. ..Barnes.. 06/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0430 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 191200Z - 251200Z ...Synopsis... By mid week, large-scale troughing is anticipated from the Pacific coastline and northward/northeastward into central Canada. Further east, a broad mid to upper-level ridge will expand westward over the eastern half of the CONUS. This pattern will remain relatively unchanged through the end of the week. A fetch of deeper moisture along the southwestern periphery of the mid-level ridge will make its way westward D3/Wednesday across most of NM. Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will accompany this moisture, upslope flow, and surface convergence. Some wetting rains may occur across the eastern half of NM within this deeper moisture, while isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible over the Lower Colorado River Basin, and just eastward, during the afternoon and evening. Much farther east across most of FL, easterly sustained surface winds around 15 mph should develop D3/Wednesday, although the opportunity for RH less than 35-40 percent appears very short lived across far northern FL and the Panhandle, where less receptive fuels persist. Moisture will continue to surge west-northwestward D4/Thursday as far west as the Four Corners region, with at least low, wetting precipitation chances expanding into eastern UT. Slightly drier sub-cloud conditions further south over the Chuska Mountains and Defiance Plateau may support the opportunity for isolated dry thunder over increasingly receptive fuels. In addition to the Isolated Dry Thunder areas mentioned above, breezy south winds will likely develop D4/Thursday from central to eastern AZ. However, with overlapping RH increasing to above 15-20 percent, low critical probabilities are not warranted at this time. These breezy south winds will shift westward D5/Friday over west central AZ, but again RH will remain slightly too high, precluding the need for low critical probabilities. Increasing, deep westerly flow is appearing more likely late this weekend over the Pacific Northwest. By D7/Sunday, a mid to upper-level jet should extend through the base of shortwave trough moving onshore. Confidence has increased enough to introduce low critical probabilities east of the Cascades of WA, where drying, downslope westerly flow is anticipated. ..Barnes.. 06/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0430 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 191200Z - 251200Z ...Synopsis... By mid week, large-scale troughing is anticipated from the Pacific coastline and northward/northeastward into central Canada. Further east, a broad mid to upper-level ridge will expand westward over the eastern half of the CONUS. This pattern will remain relatively unchanged through the end of the week. A fetch of deeper moisture along the southwestern periphery of the mid-level ridge will make its way westward D3/Wednesday across most of NM. Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will accompany this moisture, upslope flow, and surface convergence. Some wetting rains may occur across the eastern half of NM within this deeper moisture, while isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible over the Lower Colorado River Basin, and just eastward, during the afternoon and evening. Much farther east across most of FL, easterly sustained surface winds around 15 mph should develop D3/Wednesday, although the opportunity for RH less than 35-40 percent appears very short lived across far northern FL and the Panhandle, where less receptive fuels persist. Moisture will continue to surge west-northwestward D4/Thursday as far west as the Four Corners region, with at least low, wetting precipitation chances expanding into eastern UT. Slightly drier sub-cloud conditions further south over the Chuska Mountains and Defiance Plateau may support the opportunity for isolated dry thunder over increasingly receptive fuels. In addition to the Isolated Dry Thunder areas mentioned above, breezy south winds will likely develop D4/Thursday from central to eastern AZ. However, with overlapping RH increasing to above 15-20 percent, low critical probabilities are not warranted at this time. These breezy south winds will shift westward D5/Friday over west central AZ, but again RH will remain slightly too high, precluding the need for low critical probabilities. Increasing, deep westerly flow is appearing more likely late this weekend over the Pacific Northwest. By D7/Sunday, a mid to upper-level jet should extend through the base of shortwave trough moving onshore. Confidence has increased enough to introduce low critical probabilities east of the Cascades of WA, where drying, downslope westerly flow is anticipated. ..Barnes.. 06/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0430 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 191200Z - 251200Z ...Synopsis... By mid week, large-scale troughing is anticipated from the Pacific coastline and northward/northeastward into central Canada. Further east, a broad mid to upper-level ridge will expand westward over the eastern half of the CONUS. This pattern will remain relatively unchanged through the end of the week. A fetch of deeper moisture along the southwestern periphery of the mid-level ridge will make its way westward D3/Wednesday across most of NM. Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will accompany this moisture, upslope flow, and surface convergence. Some wetting rains may occur across the eastern half of NM within this deeper moisture, while isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible over the Lower Colorado River Basin, and just eastward, during the afternoon and evening. Much farther east across most of FL, easterly sustained surface winds around 15 mph should develop D3/Wednesday, although the opportunity for RH less than 35-40 percent appears very short lived across far northern FL and the Panhandle, where less receptive fuels persist. Moisture will continue to surge west-northwestward D4/Thursday as far west as the Four Corners region, with at least low, wetting precipitation chances expanding into eastern UT. Slightly drier sub-cloud conditions further south over the Chuska Mountains and Defiance Plateau may support the opportunity for isolated dry thunder over increasingly receptive fuels. In addition to the Isolated Dry Thunder areas mentioned above, breezy south winds will likely develop D4/Thursday from central to eastern AZ. However, with overlapping RH increasing to above 15-20 percent, low critical probabilities are not warranted at this time. These breezy south winds will shift westward D5/Friday over west central AZ, but again RH will remain slightly too high, precluding the need for low critical probabilities. Increasing, deep westerly flow is appearing more likely late this weekend over the Pacific Northwest. By D7/Sunday, a mid to upper-level jet should extend through the base of shortwave trough moving onshore. Confidence has increased enough to introduce low critical probabilities east of the Cascades of WA, where drying, downslope westerly flow is anticipated. ..Barnes.. 06/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0430 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 191200Z - 251200Z ...Synopsis... By mid week, large-scale troughing is anticipated from the Pacific coastline and northward/northeastward into central Canada. Further east, a broad mid to upper-level ridge will expand westward over the eastern half of the CONUS. This pattern will remain relatively unchanged through the end of the week. A fetch of deeper moisture along the southwestern periphery of the mid-level ridge will make its way westward D3/Wednesday across most of NM. Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will accompany this moisture, upslope flow, and surface convergence. Some wetting rains may occur across the eastern half of NM within this deeper moisture, while isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible over the Lower Colorado River Basin, and just eastward, during the afternoon and evening. Much farther east across most of FL, easterly sustained surface winds around 15 mph should develop D3/Wednesday, although the opportunity for RH less than 35-40 percent appears very short lived across far northern FL and the Panhandle, where less receptive fuels persist. Moisture will continue to surge west-northwestward D4/Thursday as far west as the Four Corners region, with at least low, wetting precipitation chances expanding into eastern UT. Slightly drier sub-cloud conditions further south over the Chuska Mountains and Defiance Plateau may support the opportunity for isolated dry thunder over increasingly receptive fuels. In addition to the Isolated Dry Thunder areas mentioned above, breezy south winds will likely develop D4/Thursday from central to eastern AZ. However, with overlapping RH increasing to above 15-20 percent, low critical probabilities are not warranted at this time. These breezy south winds will shift westward D5/Friday over west central AZ, but again RH will remain slightly too high, precluding the need for low critical probabilities. Increasing, deep westerly flow is appearing more likely late this weekend over the Pacific Northwest. By D7/Sunday, a mid to upper-level jet should extend through the base of shortwave trough moving onshore. Confidence has increased enough to introduce low critical probabilities east of the Cascades of WA, where drying, downslope westerly flow is anticipated. ..Barnes.. 06/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0430 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 191200Z - 251200Z ...Synopsis... By mid week, large-scale troughing is anticipated from the Pacific coastline and northward/northeastward into central Canada. Further east, a broad mid to upper-level ridge will expand westward over the eastern half of the CONUS. This pattern will remain relatively unchanged through the end of the week. A fetch of deeper moisture along the southwestern periphery of the mid-level ridge will make its way westward D3/Wednesday across most of NM. Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will accompany this moisture, upslope flow, and surface convergence. Some wetting rains may occur across the eastern half of NM within this deeper moisture, while isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible over the Lower Colorado River Basin, and just eastward, during the afternoon and evening. Much farther east across most of FL, easterly sustained surface winds around 15 mph should develop D3/Wednesday, although the opportunity for RH less than 35-40 percent appears very short lived across far northern FL and the Panhandle, where less receptive fuels persist. Moisture will continue to surge west-northwestward D4/Thursday as far west as the Four Corners region, with at least low, wetting precipitation chances expanding into eastern UT. Slightly drier sub-cloud conditions further south over the Chuska Mountains and Defiance Plateau may support the opportunity for isolated dry thunder over increasingly receptive fuels. In addition to the Isolated Dry Thunder areas mentioned above, breezy south winds will likely develop D4/Thursday from central to eastern AZ. However, with overlapping RH increasing to above 15-20 percent, low critical probabilities are not warranted at this time. These breezy south winds will shift westward D5/Friday over west central AZ, but again RH will remain slightly too high, precluding the need for low critical probabilities. Increasing, deep westerly flow is appearing more likely late this weekend over the Pacific Northwest. By D7/Sunday, a mid to upper-level jet should extend through the base of shortwave trough moving onshore. Confidence has increased enough to introduce low critical probabilities east of the Cascades of WA, where drying, downslope westerly flow is anticipated. ..Barnes.. 06/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more