Aggregator

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0430 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 191200Z - 251200Z ...Synopsis... By mid week, large-scale troughing is anticipated from the Pacific coastline and northward/northeastward into central Canada. Further east, a broad mid to upper-level ridge will expand westward over the eastern half of the CONUS. This pattern will remain relatively unchanged through the end of the week. A fetch of deeper moisture along the southwestern periphery of the mid-level ridge will make its way westward D3/Wednesday across most of NM. Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will accompany this moisture, upslope flow, and surface convergence. Some wetting rains may occur across the eastern half of NM within this deeper moisture, while isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible over the Lower Colorado River Basin, and just eastward, during the afternoon and evening. Much farther east across most of FL, easterly sustained surface winds around 15 mph should develop D3/Wednesday, although the opportunity for RH less than 35-40 percent appears very short lived across far northern FL and the Panhandle, where less receptive fuels persist. Moisture will continue to surge west-northwestward D4/Thursday as far west as the Four Corners region, with at least low, wetting precipitation chances expanding into eastern UT. Slightly drier sub-cloud conditions further south over the Chuska Mountains and Defiance Plateau may support the opportunity for isolated dry thunder over increasingly receptive fuels. In addition to the Isolated Dry Thunder areas mentioned above, breezy south winds will likely develop D4/Thursday from central to eastern AZ. However, with overlapping RH increasing to above 15-20 percent, low critical probabilities are not warranted at this time. These breezy south winds will shift westward D5/Friday over west central AZ, but again RH will remain slightly too high, precluding the need for low critical probabilities. Increasing, deep westerly flow is appearing more likely late this weekend over the Pacific Northwest. By D7/Sunday, a mid to upper-level jet should extend through the base of shortwave trough moving onshore. Confidence has increased enough to introduce low critical probabilities east of the Cascades of WA, where drying, downslope westerly flow is anticipated. ..Barnes.. 06/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0430 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 191200Z - 251200Z ...Synopsis... By mid week, large-scale troughing is anticipated from the Pacific coastline and northward/northeastward into central Canada. Further east, a broad mid to upper-level ridge will expand westward over the eastern half of the CONUS. This pattern will remain relatively unchanged through the end of the week. A fetch of deeper moisture along the southwestern periphery of the mid-level ridge will make its way westward D3/Wednesday across most of NM. Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will accompany this moisture, upslope flow, and surface convergence. Some wetting rains may occur across the eastern half of NM within this deeper moisture, while isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible over the Lower Colorado River Basin, and just eastward, during the afternoon and evening. Much farther east across most of FL, easterly sustained surface winds around 15 mph should develop D3/Wednesday, although the opportunity for RH less than 35-40 percent appears very short lived across far northern FL and the Panhandle, where less receptive fuels persist. Moisture will continue to surge west-northwestward D4/Thursday as far west as the Four Corners region, with at least low, wetting precipitation chances expanding into eastern UT. Slightly drier sub-cloud conditions further south over the Chuska Mountains and Defiance Plateau may support the opportunity for isolated dry thunder over increasingly receptive fuels. In addition to the Isolated Dry Thunder areas mentioned above, breezy south winds will likely develop D4/Thursday from central to eastern AZ. However, with overlapping RH increasing to above 15-20 percent, low critical probabilities are not warranted at this time. These breezy south winds will shift westward D5/Friday over west central AZ, but again RH will remain slightly too high, precluding the need for low critical probabilities. Increasing, deep westerly flow is appearing more likely late this weekend over the Pacific Northwest. By D7/Sunday, a mid to upper-level jet should extend through the base of shortwave trough moving onshore. Confidence has increased enough to introduce low critical probabilities east of the Cascades of WA, where drying, downslope westerly flow is anticipated. ..Barnes.. 06/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0430 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 191200Z - 251200Z ...Synopsis... By mid week, large-scale troughing is anticipated from the Pacific coastline and northward/northeastward into central Canada. Further east, a broad mid to upper-level ridge will expand westward over the eastern half of the CONUS. This pattern will remain relatively unchanged through the end of the week. A fetch of deeper moisture along the southwestern periphery of the mid-level ridge will make its way westward D3/Wednesday across most of NM. Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will accompany this moisture, upslope flow, and surface convergence. Some wetting rains may occur across the eastern half of NM within this deeper moisture, while isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible over the Lower Colorado River Basin, and just eastward, during the afternoon and evening. Much farther east across most of FL, easterly sustained surface winds around 15 mph should develop D3/Wednesday, although the opportunity for RH less than 35-40 percent appears very short lived across far northern FL and the Panhandle, where less receptive fuels persist. Moisture will continue to surge west-northwestward D4/Thursday as far west as the Four Corners region, with at least low, wetting precipitation chances expanding into eastern UT. Slightly drier sub-cloud conditions further south over the Chuska Mountains and Defiance Plateau may support the opportunity for isolated dry thunder over increasingly receptive fuels. In addition to the Isolated Dry Thunder areas mentioned above, breezy south winds will likely develop D4/Thursday from central to eastern AZ. However, with overlapping RH increasing to above 15-20 percent, low critical probabilities are not warranted at this time. These breezy south winds will shift westward D5/Friday over west central AZ, but again RH will remain slightly too high, precluding the need for low critical probabilities. Increasing, deep westerly flow is appearing more likely late this weekend over the Pacific Northwest. By D7/Sunday, a mid to upper-level jet should extend through the base of shortwave trough moving onshore. Confidence has increased enough to introduce low critical probabilities east of the Cascades of WA, where drying, downslope westerly flow is anticipated. ..Barnes.. 06/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0430 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 191200Z - 251200Z ...Synopsis... By mid week, large-scale troughing is anticipated from the Pacific coastline and northward/northeastward into central Canada. Further east, a broad mid to upper-level ridge will expand westward over the eastern half of the CONUS. This pattern will remain relatively unchanged through the end of the week. A fetch of deeper moisture along the southwestern periphery of the mid-level ridge will make its way westward D3/Wednesday across most of NM. Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will accompany this moisture, upslope flow, and surface convergence. Some wetting rains may occur across the eastern half of NM within this deeper moisture, while isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible over the Lower Colorado River Basin, and just eastward, during the afternoon and evening. Much farther east across most of FL, easterly sustained surface winds around 15 mph should develop D3/Wednesday, although the opportunity for RH less than 35-40 percent appears very short lived across far northern FL and the Panhandle, where less receptive fuels persist. Moisture will continue to surge west-northwestward D4/Thursday as far west as the Four Corners region, with at least low, wetting precipitation chances expanding into eastern UT. Slightly drier sub-cloud conditions further south over the Chuska Mountains and Defiance Plateau may support the opportunity for isolated dry thunder over increasingly receptive fuels. In addition to the Isolated Dry Thunder areas mentioned above, breezy south winds will likely develop D4/Thursday from central to eastern AZ. However, with overlapping RH increasing to above 15-20 percent, low critical probabilities are not warranted at this time. These breezy south winds will shift westward D5/Friday over west central AZ, but again RH will remain slightly too high, precluding the need for low critical probabilities. Increasing, deep westerly flow is appearing more likely late this weekend over the Pacific Northwest. By D7/Sunday, a mid to upper-level jet should extend through the base of shortwave trough moving onshore. Confidence has increased enough to introduce low critical probabilities east of the Cascades of WA, where drying, downslope westerly flow is anticipated. ..Barnes.. 06/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0430 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 191200Z - 251200Z ...Synopsis... By mid week, large-scale troughing is anticipated from the Pacific coastline and northward/northeastward into central Canada. Further east, a broad mid to upper-level ridge will expand westward over the eastern half of the CONUS. This pattern will remain relatively unchanged through the end of the week. A fetch of deeper moisture along the southwestern periphery of the mid-level ridge will make its way westward D3/Wednesday across most of NM. Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will accompany this moisture, upslope flow, and surface convergence. Some wetting rains may occur across the eastern half of NM within this deeper moisture, while isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible over the Lower Colorado River Basin, and just eastward, during the afternoon and evening. Much farther east across most of FL, easterly sustained surface winds around 15 mph should develop D3/Wednesday, although the opportunity for RH less than 35-40 percent appears very short lived across far northern FL and the Panhandle, where less receptive fuels persist. Moisture will continue to surge west-northwestward D4/Thursday as far west as the Four Corners region, with at least low, wetting precipitation chances expanding into eastern UT. Slightly drier sub-cloud conditions further south over the Chuska Mountains and Defiance Plateau may support the opportunity for isolated dry thunder over increasingly receptive fuels. In addition to the Isolated Dry Thunder areas mentioned above, breezy south winds will likely develop D4/Thursday from central to eastern AZ. However, with overlapping RH increasing to above 15-20 percent, low critical probabilities are not warranted at this time. These breezy south winds will shift westward D5/Friday over west central AZ, but again RH will remain slightly too high, precluding the need for low critical probabilities. Increasing, deep westerly flow is appearing more likely late this weekend over the Pacific Northwest. By D7/Sunday, a mid to upper-level jet should extend through the base of shortwave trough moving onshore. Confidence has increased enough to introduce low critical probabilities east of the Cascades of WA, where drying, downslope westerly flow is anticipated. ..Barnes.. 06/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0430 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 191200Z - 251200Z ...Synopsis... By mid week, large-scale troughing is anticipated from the Pacific coastline and northward/northeastward into central Canada. Further east, a broad mid to upper-level ridge will expand westward over the eastern half of the CONUS. This pattern will remain relatively unchanged through the end of the week. A fetch of deeper moisture along the southwestern periphery of the mid-level ridge will make its way westward D3/Wednesday across most of NM. Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will accompany this moisture, upslope flow, and surface convergence. Some wetting rains may occur across the eastern half of NM within this deeper moisture, while isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible over the Lower Colorado River Basin, and just eastward, during the afternoon and evening. Much farther east across most of FL, easterly sustained surface winds around 15 mph should develop D3/Wednesday, although the opportunity for RH less than 35-40 percent appears very short lived across far northern FL and the Panhandle, where less receptive fuels persist. Moisture will continue to surge west-northwestward D4/Thursday as far west as the Four Corners region, with at least low, wetting precipitation chances expanding into eastern UT. Slightly drier sub-cloud conditions further south over the Chuska Mountains and Defiance Plateau may support the opportunity for isolated dry thunder over increasingly receptive fuels. In addition to the Isolated Dry Thunder areas mentioned above, breezy south winds will likely develop D4/Thursday from central to eastern AZ. However, with overlapping RH increasing to above 15-20 percent, low critical probabilities are not warranted at this time. These breezy south winds will shift westward D5/Friday over west central AZ, but again RH will remain slightly too high, precluding the need for low critical probabilities. Increasing, deep westerly flow is appearing more likely late this weekend over the Pacific Northwest. By D7/Sunday, a mid to upper-level jet should extend through the base of shortwave trough moving onshore. Confidence has increased enough to introduce low critical probabilities east of the Cascades of WA, where drying, downslope westerly flow is anticipated. ..Barnes.. 06/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0430 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 191200Z - 251200Z ...Synopsis... By mid week, large-scale troughing is anticipated from the Pacific coastline and northward/northeastward into central Canada. Further east, a broad mid to upper-level ridge will expand westward over the eastern half of the CONUS. This pattern will remain relatively unchanged through the end of the week. A fetch of deeper moisture along the southwestern periphery of the mid-level ridge will make its way westward D3/Wednesday across most of NM. Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will accompany this moisture, upslope flow, and surface convergence. Some wetting rains may occur across the eastern half of NM within this deeper moisture, while isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible over the Lower Colorado River Basin, and just eastward, during the afternoon and evening. Much farther east across most of FL, easterly sustained surface winds around 15 mph should develop D3/Wednesday, although the opportunity for RH less than 35-40 percent appears very short lived across far northern FL and the Panhandle, where less receptive fuels persist. Moisture will continue to surge west-northwestward D4/Thursday as far west as the Four Corners region, with at least low, wetting precipitation chances expanding into eastern UT. Slightly drier sub-cloud conditions further south over the Chuska Mountains and Defiance Plateau may support the opportunity for isolated dry thunder over increasingly receptive fuels. In addition to the Isolated Dry Thunder areas mentioned above, breezy south winds will likely develop D4/Thursday from central to eastern AZ. However, with overlapping RH increasing to above 15-20 percent, low critical probabilities are not warranted at this time. These breezy south winds will shift westward D5/Friday over west central AZ, but again RH will remain slightly too high, precluding the need for low critical probabilities. Increasing, deep westerly flow is appearing more likely late this weekend over the Pacific Northwest. By D7/Sunday, a mid to upper-level jet should extend through the base of shortwave trough moving onshore. Confidence has increased enough to introduce low critical probabilities east of the Cascades of WA, where drying, downslope westerly flow is anticipated. ..Barnes.. 06/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 1305 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1305 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0306 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Areas affected...parts of eastern Colorado and western Kansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 172006Z - 172130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered high-based convection that has recently evolved may persist with a threat for isolated damaging gusts and/or hail this afternoon. However, convective evolution and the spatial extent of any severe risk is uncertain. DISCUSSION...As of 20 UTC, regional radar and satellite data showed high-based convection has evolved across southeastern CO in the last hour. Likely driven by strong diurnal heating and the approach of a subtle shortwave trough, and modest ascent near a dryline will likely allow for continued convective development. Although high-based (with surface dewpoints only in the 40s-50s F) around 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE (increasing with eastward extent) may be sufficient to support a few stronger updrafts, especially if storms move into deeper moisture farther north and east. Model soundings show very deep surface mixed layers with LCL heights in excess of 2000 m. Given the steep low-level lapse rates, any sustained storms are likely to develop strong evaporative downdrafts with damaging gust potential. Isolated hail may also be possible with any of the more sustained updrafts given effective shear around 25-30 kt. While there remains some uncertainty on storm longevity with the marginal surface moisture, at least a few stronger updrafts may persist this afternoon, and potentially move into areas with greater buoyancy farther east. Some risk for damaging winds and hail is possible with any sustained storms as indicated by recent HRRR runs. Given this, convective trends will continue to be monitored though a WW appears unlikely at this time. ..Lyons/Halbert/Gleason.. 06/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB... LAT...LON 37920139 37170154 36970180 36930207 36910264 36990298 37130326 37610350 38350323 38790278 39380250 39720199 39580152 39230134 38710134 38050135 37920139 Read more

MD 1303 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHWEST/NORTH-CENTRAL IA...SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL MN
Mesoscale Discussion 1303 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Areas affected...Northwest/North-Central IA...Southwest/South-Central MN Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 171934Z - 172130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Ongoing convective line may strengthen as it moves eastward into more of south-central MN and north-central IA. Convective trends will be monitored closely to determine if a watch is needed. DISCUSSION...An elevated but organized convective line continues to progress eastward across southwest MN/northwest IA at around 35 to 40 kt. The intensity of this line has been relatively steady over the past hour or so. New development has also been noted along the southern flank of this line. Recent surface analysis places a warm front from east-central NE northeastward across northern IA and into southwest MN, demarcated well by the 82 deg F isotherm. Northward progression of this warm front combined with the predominantly eastward motion of the convective line may result in the line trending towards becoming more surface based over the next hour or two. The airmass downstream continues to destabilize, with the general expectation that minimal convective inhibition will remain ahead of the line as it moves into south-central MN and north-central IA. This could result in intensification of the line, particularly if the line continues to build southward and increases the potential for interaction with the warm front. This scenario would likely merit watch issuance given the presence of strong buoyancy and vertical shear supportive of severe thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards. There is moderate forecast confidence in this scenario, but there is also some chance the line trends more northeastward into an airmass with less buoyancy and no interaction with the warm front. Severe thunderstorms would be unlikely in that scenario. Given the equal chances between either scenario, convective trends will be monitored closely and a watch may be needed if updrafts within the line begin to intensify. ..Mosier/Gleason.. 06/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD... LAT...LON 42779623 43469618 43819604 44219570 44309513 44379388 44239321 43869291 43369276 42829323 42609480 42779623 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 172000Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND EASTWARD TO WISCONSIN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms potential persists across parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley, and over the central High Plains and northern Plains late this afternoon through tonight. Severe/damaging winds and large hail appear possible. ...Discussion... Ongoing convective evolution this afternoon remains largely in line with expectations, as laid out in prior outlooks. Generally minor line adjustments are all that appears necessary at this time, the most notable of which across the Wisconsin vicinity. Here, SLGT risk for hail/wind has been expanded southward in this update, to reflect severe risk evolving near the convective outflow that now arcs northeast to southwest across central Wisconsin, near where storms continue to initiate. Elsewhere, only minor changes to outlook areas appear necessary at this time. ..Goss.. 06/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024/ ...Upper Mississippi Valley/Upper Great Lakes... A loosely organized thunderstorm cluster is ongoing late this morning across northern WI into the U.P. of MI. With steep mid-level lapse rates present per the 12Z sounding from GRB, along with sufficient deep-layer shear to support organized updrafts, at least an isolated severe hail/wind risk should continue through the afternoon across this region along and east of a front. In the wake of this activity, large-scale ascent appears nebulous/weak across much of the upper MS Valley. Still, modest forcing associated with low-level warm advection through the day may be enough for additional convection to develop this afternoon along the southward extent of the front across this region. The best chance for this to occur appears to be across parts of northern IA/southern MN and perhaps western WI along and near the surface front, which may try to lift slowly northward through this afternoon/evening. If surface-based thunderstorms can develop across this area, they would pose some threat for severe hail and damaging winds given moderate forecast instability and sufficient deep-layer shear to support updraft organization. However, this scenario remains low confidence, as earlier convection has shunted the surface front well into IA this morning. This boundary is forecast to lift northward as a warm front tonight ahead of an mid/upper-level wave approaching from the northern/central Plains, and mainly a hail threat could persist across parts of MN and vicinity through early Tuesday morning with elevated supercells that may develop in a strengthening low-level warm advection regime. ...Northern/Central Plains... A pronounced upper trough/low over the Northwest will move eastward through the period over the northern/central Rockies and adjacent High Plains. Related surface lee cyclogenesis is expected to further occur through this evening over the central High Plains, focused on the northeast CO, southeast WY, and NE Panhandle vicinity. Multiple rounds and zones of severe thunderstorm potential still appear possible across much of the northern/central Plains this afternoon through tonight. Intense thunderstorm development may occur near the surface triple point in southwest NE and vicinity this afternoon, although the later timing of large-scale ascent associated with the upper trough casts some doubt on surface-based thunderstorm initiation. The presence of steep mid-level lapse rates and rich low-level moisture should aid in the development of moderate to strong instability as daytime heating occurs and as the warm front attempts to lift slowly northward across the central Plains. Deep-layer shear will be strong enough for supercells with associated large hail threat. Isolated very large hail may also occur. Some upscale growth/clustering along and near the front appears possible with time this evening, and a greater threat for severe/damaging winds may eventually be realized. Effective SRH is also forecast to quickly increase late this afternoon into the evening as a southerly low-level jet rapidly strengthens over the northern/central Plains. If any supercell can persist in this time frame, it would pose a threat for a tornado. A somewhat separate area of supercell potential is also evident across northeast WY/southeast MT, where modest low-level moisture return and upslope flow to the Bighorns may promote convective initiation later today as the upper trough continues eastward. Isolated to scattered large hail appears to be the main threat with this convection, if it develops and assuming sufficient instability can materialize. Otherwise, mainly elevated thunderstorms will likely develop and persist late this evening and overnight across a broader portion of the northern Plains. Large hail should be the main threat, although severe/damaging winds may occur with any convection that can remain near/south of the northward-lifting warm front. ...Southern High Plains... Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms may occur with southward extent along the length of the dryline/lee trough this afternoon across the southern High Plains. Deep-layer shear should remain fairly modest (generally 20-30 kt). Still, any convection that can develop late this afternoon may pose an isolated threat for severe wind gusts and hail through early evening given a moderately to strongly unstable airmass. ...Lower Great Lakes/Upper Ohio River Valley... A remnant convective cluster/MCV over southern Ontario should broadly influence additional thunderstorm development to its east this afternoon across the lower Great Lakes and upper OH Valley regions. Instability is forecast to gradually increase with continued daytime heating and low-level moisture streaming northward. Deep-layer shear should remain generally weak (25 kt or less). Still, steepening low-level lapse rates and a moist/moderately unstable airmass could allow for some stronger pulse-type/occasionally clustering thunderstorms capable of producing localized wind damage this afternoon and early evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 172000Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND EASTWARD TO WISCONSIN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms potential persists across parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley, and over the central High Plains and northern Plains late this afternoon through tonight. Severe/damaging winds and large hail appear possible. ...Discussion... Ongoing convective evolution this afternoon remains largely in line with expectations, as laid out in prior outlooks. Generally minor line adjustments are all that appears necessary at this time, the most notable of which across the Wisconsin vicinity. Here, SLGT risk for hail/wind has been expanded southward in this update, to reflect severe risk evolving near the convective outflow that now arcs northeast to southwest across central Wisconsin, near where storms continue to initiate. Elsewhere, only minor changes to outlook areas appear necessary at this time. ..Goss.. 06/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024/ ...Upper Mississippi Valley/Upper Great Lakes... A loosely organized thunderstorm cluster is ongoing late this morning across northern WI into the U.P. of MI. With steep mid-level lapse rates present per the 12Z sounding from GRB, along with sufficient deep-layer shear to support organized updrafts, at least an isolated severe hail/wind risk should continue through the afternoon across this region along and east of a front. In the wake of this activity, large-scale ascent appears nebulous/weak across much of the upper MS Valley. Still, modest forcing associated with low-level warm advection through the day may be enough for additional convection to develop this afternoon along the southward extent of the front across this region. The best chance for this to occur appears to be across parts of northern IA/southern MN and perhaps western WI along and near the surface front, which may try to lift slowly northward through this afternoon/evening. If surface-based thunderstorms can develop across this area, they would pose some threat for severe hail and damaging winds given moderate forecast instability and sufficient deep-layer shear to support updraft organization. However, this scenario remains low confidence, as earlier convection has shunted the surface front well into IA this morning. This boundary is forecast to lift northward as a warm front tonight ahead of an mid/upper-level wave approaching from the northern/central Plains, and mainly a hail threat could persist across parts of MN and vicinity through early Tuesday morning with elevated supercells that may develop in a strengthening low-level warm advection regime. ...Northern/Central Plains... A pronounced upper trough/low over the Northwest will move eastward through the period over the northern/central Rockies and adjacent High Plains. Related surface lee cyclogenesis is expected to further occur through this evening over the central High Plains, focused on the northeast CO, southeast WY, and NE Panhandle vicinity. Multiple rounds and zones of severe thunderstorm potential still appear possible across much of the northern/central Plains this afternoon through tonight. Intense thunderstorm development may occur near the surface triple point in southwest NE and vicinity this afternoon, although the later timing of large-scale ascent associated with the upper trough casts some doubt on surface-based thunderstorm initiation. The presence of steep mid-level lapse rates and rich low-level moisture should aid in the development of moderate to strong instability as daytime heating occurs and as the warm front attempts to lift slowly northward across the central Plains. Deep-layer shear will be strong enough for supercells with associated large hail threat. Isolated very large hail may also occur. Some upscale growth/clustering along and near the front appears possible with time this evening, and a greater threat for severe/damaging winds may eventually be realized. Effective SRH is also forecast to quickly increase late this afternoon into the evening as a southerly low-level jet rapidly strengthens over the northern/central Plains. If any supercell can persist in this time frame, it would pose a threat for a tornado. A somewhat separate area of supercell potential is also evident across northeast WY/southeast MT, where modest low-level moisture return and upslope flow to the Bighorns may promote convective initiation later today as the upper trough continues eastward. Isolated to scattered large hail appears to be the main threat with this convection, if it develops and assuming sufficient instability can materialize. Otherwise, mainly elevated thunderstorms will likely develop and persist late this evening and overnight across a broader portion of the northern Plains. Large hail should be the main threat, although severe/damaging winds may occur with any convection that can remain near/south of the northward-lifting warm front. ...Southern High Plains... Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms may occur with southward extent along the length of the dryline/lee trough this afternoon across the southern High Plains. Deep-layer shear should remain fairly modest (generally 20-30 kt). Still, any convection that can develop late this afternoon may pose an isolated threat for severe wind gusts and hail through early evening given a moderately to strongly unstable airmass. ...Lower Great Lakes/Upper Ohio River Valley... A remnant convective cluster/MCV over southern Ontario should broadly influence additional thunderstorm development to its east this afternoon across the lower Great Lakes and upper OH Valley regions. Instability is forecast to gradually increase with continued daytime heating and low-level moisture streaming northward. Deep-layer shear should remain generally weak (25 kt or less). Still, steepening low-level lapse rates and a moist/moderately unstable airmass could allow for some stronger pulse-type/occasionally clustering thunderstorms capable of producing localized wind damage this afternoon and early evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 172000Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND EASTWARD TO WISCONSIN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms potential persists across parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley, and over the central High Plains and northern Plains late this afternoon through tonight. Severe/damaging winds and large hail appear possible. ...Discussion... Ongoing convective evolution this afternoon remains largely in line with expectations, as laid out in prior outlooks. Generally minor line adjustments are all that appears necessary at this time, the most notable of which across the Wisconsin vicinity. Here, SLGT risk for hail/wind has been expanded southward in this update, to reflect severe risk evolving near the convective outflow that now arcs northeast to southwest across central Wisconsin, near where storms continue to initiate. Elsewhere, only minor changes to outlook areas appear necessary at this time. ..Goss.. 06/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024/ ...Upper Mississippi Valley/Upper Great Lakes... A loosely organized thunderstorm cluster is ongoing late this morning across northern WI into the U.P. of MI. With steep mid-level lapse rates present per the 12Z sounding from GRB, along with sufficient deep-layer shear to support organized updrafts, at least an isolated severe hail/wind risk should continue through the afternoon across this region along and east of a front. In the wake of this activity, large-scale ascent appears nebulous/weak across much of the upper MS Valley. Still, modest forcing associated with low-level warm advection through the day may be enough for additional convection to develop this afternoon along the southward extent of the front across this region. The best chance for this to occur appears to be across parts of northern IA/southern MN and perhaps western WI along and near the surface front, which may try to lift slowly northward through this afternoon/evening. If surface-based thunderstorms can develop across this area, they would pose some threat for severe hail and damaging winds given moderate forecast instability and sufficient deep-layer shear to support updraft organization. However, this scenario remains low confidence, as earlier convection has shunted the surface front well into IA this morning. This boundary is forecast to lift northward as a warm front tonight ahead of an mid/upper-level wave approaching from the northern/central Plains, and mainly a hail threat could persist across parts of MN and vicinity through early Tuesday morning with elevated supercells that may develop in a strengthening low-level warm advection regime. ...Northern/Central Plains... A pronounced upper trough/low over the Northwest will move eastward through the period over the northern/central Rockies and adjacent High Plains. Related surface lee cyclogenesis is expected to further occur through this evening over the central High Plains, focused on the northeast CO, southeast WY, and NE Panhandle vicinity. Multiple rounds and zones of severe thunderstorm potential still appear possible across much of the northern/central Plains this afternoon through tonight. Intense thunderstorm development may occur near the surface triple point in southwest NE and vicinity this afternoon, although the later timing of large-scale ascent associated with the upper trough casts some doubt on surface-based thunderstorm initiation. The presence of steep mid-level lapse rates and rich low-level moisture should aid in the development of moderate to strong instability as daytime heating occurs and as the warm front attempts to lift slowly northward across the central Plains. Deep-layer shear will be strong enough for supercells with associated large hail threat. Isolated very large hail may also occur. Some upscale growth/clustering along and near the front appears possible with time this evening, and a greater threat for severe/damaging winds may eventually be realized. Effective SRH is also forecast to quickly increase late this afternoon into the evening as a southerly low-level jet rapidly strengthens over the northern/central Plains. If any supercell can persist in this time frame, it would pose a threat for a tornado. A somewhat separate area of supercell potential is also evident across northeast WY/southeast MT, where modest low-level moisture return and upslope flow to the Bighorns may promote convective initiation later today as the upper trough continues eastward. Isolated to scattered large hail appears to be the main threat with this convection, if it develops and assuming sufficient instability can materialize. Otherwise, mainly elevated thunderstorms will likely develop and persist late this evening and overnight across a broader portion of the northern Plains. Large hail should be the main threat, although severe/damaging winds may occur with any convection that can remain near/south of the northward-lifting warm front. ...Southern High Plains... Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms may occur with southward extent along the length of the dryline/lee trough this afternoon across the southern High Plains. Deep-layer shear should remain fairly modest (generally 20-30 kt). Still, any convection that can develop late this afternoon may pose an isolated threat for severe wind gusts and hail through early evening given a moderately to strongly unstable airmass. ...Lower Great Lakes/Upper Ohio River Valley... A remnant convective cluster/MCV over southern Ontario should broadly influence additional thunderstorm development to its east this afternoon across the lower Great Lakes and upper OH Valley regions. Instability is forecast to gradually increase with continued daytime heating and low-level moisture streaming northward. Deep-layer shear should remain generally weak (25 kt or less). Still, steepening low-level lapse rates and a moist/moderately unstable airmass could allow for some stronger pulse-type/occasionally clustering thunderstorms capable of producing localized wind damage this afternoon and early evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 172000Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND EASTWARD TO WISCONSIN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms potential persists across parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley, and over the central High Plains and northern Plains late this afternoon through tonight. Severe/damaging winds and large hail appear possible. ...Discussion... Ongoing convective evolution this afternoon remains largely in line with expectations, as laid out in prior outlooks. Generally minor line adjustments are all that appears necessary at this time, the most notable of which across the Wisconsin vicinity. Here, SLGT risk for hail/wind has been expanded southward in this update, to reflect severe risk evolving near the convective outflow that now arcs northeast to southwest across central Wisconsin, near where storms continue to initiate. Elsewhere, only minor changes to outlook areas appear necessary at this time. ..Goss.. 06/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024/ ...Upper Mississippi Valley/Upper Great Lakes... A loosely organized thunderstorm cluster is ongoing late this morning across northern WI into the U.P. of MI. With steep mid-level lapse rates present per the 12Z sounding from GRB, along with sufficient deep-layer shear to support organized updrafts, at least an isolated severe hail/wind risk should continue through the afternoon across this region along and east of a front. In the wake of this activity, large-scale ascent appears nebulous/weak across much of the upper MS Valley. Still, modest forcing associated with low-level warm advection through the day may be enough for additional convection to develop this afternoon along the southward extent of the front across this region. The best chance for this to occur appears to be across parts of northern IA/southern MN and perhaps western WI along and near the surface front, which may try to lift slowly northward through this afternoon/evening. If surface-based thunderstorms can develop across this area, they would pose some threat for severe hail and damaging winds given moderate forecast instability and sufficient deep-layer shear to support updraft organization. However, this scenario remains low confidence, as earlier convection has shunted the surface front well into IA this morning. This boundary is forecast to lift northward as a warm front tonight ahead of an mid/upper-level wave approaching from the northern/central Plains, and mainly a hail threat could persist across parts of MN and vicinity through early Tuesday morning with elevated supercells that may develop in a strengthening low-level warm advection regime. ...Northern/Central Plains... A pronounced upper trough/low over the Northwest will move eastward through the period over the northern/central Rockies and adjacent High Plains. Related surface lee cyclogenesis is expected to further occur through this evening over the central High Plains, focused on the northeast CO, southeast WY, and NE Panhandle vicinity. Multiple rounds and zones of severe thunderstorm potential still appear possible across much of the northern/central Plains this afternoon through tonight. Intense thunderstorm development may occur near the surface triple point in southwest NE and vicinity this afternoon, although the later timing of large-scale ascent associated with the upper trough casts some doubt on surface-based thunderstorm initiation. The presence of steep mid-level lapse rates and rich low-level moisture should aid in the development of moderate to strong instability as daytime heating occurs and as the warm front attempts to lift slowly northward across the central Plains. Deep-layer shear will be strong enough for supercells with associated large hail threat. Isolated very large hail may also occur. Some upscale growth/clustering along and near the front appears possible with time this evening, and a greater threat for severe/damaging winds may eventually be realized. Effective SRH is also forecast to quickly increase late this afternoon into the evening as a southerly low-level jet rapidly strengthens over the northern/central Plains. If any supercell can persist in this time frame, it would pose a threat for a tornado. A somewhat separate area of supercell potential is also evident across northeast WY/southeast MT, where modest low-level moisture return and upslope flow to the Bighorns may promote convective initiation later today as the upper trough continues eastward. Isolated to scattered large hail appears to be the main threat with this convection, if it develops and assuming sufficient instability can materialize. Otherwise, mainly elevated thunderstorms will likely develop and persist late this evening and overnight across a broader portion of the northern Plains. Large hail should be the main threat, although severe/damaging winds may occur with any convection that can remain near/south of the northward-lifting warm front. ...Southern High Plains... Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms may occur with southward extent along the length of the dryline/lee trough this afternoon across the southern High Plains. Deep-layer shear should remain fairly modest (generally 20-30 kt). Still, any convection that can develop late this afternoon may pose an isolated threat for severe wind gusts and hail through early evening given a moderately to strongly unstable airmass. ...Lower Great Lakes/Upper Ohio River Valley... A remnant convective cluster/MCV over southern Ontario should broadly influence additional thunderstorm development to its east this afternoon across the lower Great Lakes and upper OH Valley regions. Instability is forecast to gradually increase with continued daytime heating and low-level moisture streaming northward. Deep-layer shear should remain generally weak (25 kt or less). Still, steepening low-level lapse rates and a moist/moderately unstable airmass could allow for some stronger pulse-type/occasionally clustering thunderstorms capable of producing localized wind damage this afternoon and early evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 172000Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND EASTWARD TO WISCONSIN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms potential persists across parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley, and over the central High Plains and northern Plains late this afternoon through tonight. Severe/damaging winds and large hail appear possible. ...Discussion... Ongoing convective evolution this afternoon remains largely in line with expectations, as laid out in prior outlooks. Generally minor line adjustments are all that appears necessary at this time, the most notable of which across the Wisconsin vicinity. Here, SLGT risk for hail/wind has been expanded southward in this update, to reflect severe risk evolving near the convective outflow that now arcs northeast to southwest across central Wisconsin, near where storms continue to initiate. Elsewhere, only minor changes to outlook areas appear necessary at this time. ..Goss.. 06/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024/ ...Upper Mississippi Valley/Upper Great Lakes... A loosely organized thunderstorm cluster is ongoing late this morning across northern WI into the U.P. of MI. With steep mid-level lapse rates present per the 12Z sounding from GRB, along with sufficient deep-layer shear to support organized updrafts, at least an isolated severe hail/wind risk should continue through the afternoon across this region along and east of a front. In the wake of this activity, large-scale ascent appears nebulous/weak across much of the upper MS Valley. Still, modest forcing associated with low-level warm advection through the day may be enough for additional convection to develop this afternoon along the southward extent of the front across this region. The best chance for this to occur appears to be across parts of northern IA/southern MN and perhaps western WI along and near the surface front, which may try to lift slowly northward through this afternoon/evening. If surface-based thunderstorms can develop across this area, they would pose some threat for severe hail and damaging winds given moderate forecast instability and sufficient deep-layer shear to support updraft organization. However, this scenario remains low confidence, as earlier convection has shunted the surface front well into IA this morning. This boundary is forecast to lift northward as a warm front tonight ahead of an mid/upper-level wave approaching from the northern/central Plains, and mainly a hail threat could persist across parts of MN and vicinity through early Tuesday morning with elevated supercells that may develop in a strengthening low-level warm advection regime. ...Northern/Central Plains... A pronounced upper trough/low over the Northwest will move eastward through the period over the northern/central Rockies and adjacent High Plains. Related surface lee cyclogenesis is expected to further occur through this evening over the central High Plains, focused on the northeast CO, southeast WY, and NE Panhandle vicinity. Multiple rounds and zones of severe thunderstorm potential still appear possible across much of the northern/central Plains this afternoon through tonight. Intense thunderstorm development may occur near the surface triple point in southwest NE and vicinity this afternoon, although the later timing of large-scale ascent associated with the upper trough casts some doubt on surface-based thunderstorm initiation. The presence of steep mid-level lapse rates and rich low-level moisture should aid in the development of moderate to strong instability as daytime heating occurs and as the warm front attempts to lift slowly northward across the central Plains. Deep-layer shear will be strong enough for supercells with associated large hail threat. Isolated very large hail may also occur. Some upscale growth/clustering along and near the front appears possible with time this evening, and a greater threat for severe/damaging winds may eventually be realized. Effective SRH is also forecast to quickly increase late this afternoon into the evening as a southerly low-level jet rapidly strengthens over the northern/central Plains. If any supercell can persist in this time frame, it would pose a threat for a tornado. A somewhat separate area of supercell potential is also evident across northeast WY/southeast MT, where modest low-level moisture return and upslope flow to the Bighorns may promote convective initiation later today as the upper trough continues eastward. Isolated to scattered large hail appears to be the main threat with this convection, if it develops and assuming sufficient instability can materialize. Otherwise, mainly elevated thunderstorms will likely develop and persist late this evening and overnight across a broader portion of the northern Plains. Large hail should be the main threat, although severe/damaging winds may occur with any convection that can remain near/south of the northward-lifting warm front. ...Southern High Plains... Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms may occur with southward extent along the length of the dryline/lee trough this afternoon across the southern High Plains. Deep-layer shear should remain fairly modest (generally 20-30 kt). Still, any convection that can develop late this afternoon may pose an isolated threat for severe wind gusts and hail through early evening given a moderately to strongly unstable airmass. ...Lower Great Lakes/Upper Ohio River Valley... A remnant convective cluster/MCV over southern Ontario should broadly influence additional thunderstorm development to its east this afternoon across the lower Great Lakes and upper OH Valley regions. Instability is forecast to gradually increase with continued daytime heating and low-level moisture streaming northward. Deep-layer shear should remain generally weak (25 kt or less). Still, steepening low-level lapse rates and a moist/moderately unstable airmass could allow for some stronger pulse-type/occasionally clustering thunderstorms capable of producing localized wind damage this afternoon and early evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 172000Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND EASTWARD TO WISCONSIN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms potential persists across parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley, and over the central High Plains and northern Plains late this afternoon through tonight. Severe/damaging winds and large hail appear possible. ...Discussion... Ongoing convective evolution this afternoon remains largely in line with expectations, as laid out in prior outlooks. Generally minor line adjustments are all that appears necessary at this time, the most notable of which across the Wisconsin vicinity. Here, SLGT risk for hail/wind has been expanded southward in this update, to reflect severe risk evolving near the convective outflow that now arcs northeast to southwest across central Wisconsin, near where storms continue to initiate. Elsewhere, only minor changes to outlook areas appear necessary at this time. ..Goss.. 06/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024/ ...Upper Mississippi Valley/Upper Great Lakes... A loosely organized thunderstorm cluster is ongoing late this morning across northern WI into the U.P. of MI. With steep mid-level lapse rates present per the 12Z sounding from GRB, along with sufficient deep-layer shear to support organized updrafts, at least an isolated severe hail/wind risk should continue through the afternoon across this region along and east of a front. In the wake of this activity, large-scale ascent appears nebulous/weak across much of the upper MS Valley. Still, modest forcing associated with low-level warm advection through the day may be enough for additional convection to develop this afternoon along the southward extent of the front across this region. The best chance for this to occur appears to be across parts of northern IA/southern MN and perhaps western WI along and near the surface front, which may try to lift slowly northward through this afternoon/evening. If surface-based thunderstorms can develop across this area, they would pose some threat for severe hail and damaging winds given moderate forecast instability and sufficient deep-layer shear to support updraft organization. However, this scenario remains low confidence, as earlier convection has shunted the surface front well into IA this morning. This boundary is forecast to lift northward as a warm front tonight ahead of an mid/upper-level wave approaching from the northern/central Plains, and mainly a hail threat could persist across parts of MN and vicinity through early Tuesday morning with elevated supercells that may develop in a strengthening low-level warm advection regime. ...Northern/Central Plains... A pronounced upper trough/low over the Northwest will move eastward through the period over the northern/central Rockies and adjacent High Plains. Related surface lee cyclogenesis is expected to further occur through this evening over the central High Plains, focused on the northeast CO, southeast WY, and NE Panhandle vicinity. Multiple rounds and zones of severe thunderstorm potential still appear possible across much of the northern/central Plains this afternoon through tonight. Intense thunderstorm development may occur near the surface triple point in southwest NE and vicinity this afternoon, although the later timing of large-scale ascent associated with the upper trough casts some doubt on surface-based thunderstorm initiation. The presence of steep mid-level lapse rates and rich low-level moisture should aid in the development of moderate to strong instability as daytime heating occurs and as the warm front attempts to lift slowly northward across the central Plains. Deep-layer shear will be strong enough for supercells with associated large hail threat. Isolated very large hail may also occur. Some upscale growth/clustering along and near the front appears possible with time this evening, and a greater threat for severe/damaging winds may eventually be realized. Effective SRH is also forecast to quickly increase late this afternoon into the evening as a southerly low-level jet rapidly strengthens over the northern/central Plains. If any supercell can persist in this time frame, it would pose a threat for a tornado. A somewhat separate area of supercell potential is also evident across northeast WY/southeast MT, where modest low-level moisture return and upslope flow to the Bighorns may promote convective initiation later today as the upper trough continues eastward. Isolated to scattered large hail appears to be the main threat with this convection, if it develops and assuming sufficient instability can materialize. Otherwise, mainly elevated thunderstorms will likely develop and persist late this evening and overnight across a broader portion of the northern Plains. Large hail should be the main threat, although severe/damaging winds may occur with any convection that can remain near/south of the northward-lifting warm front. ...Southern High Plains... Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms may occur with southward extent along the length of the dryline/lee trough this afternoon across the southern High Plains. Deep-layer shear should remain fairly modest (generally 20-30 kt). Still, any convection that can develop late this afternoon may pose an isolated threat for severe wind gusts and hail through early evening given a moderately to strongly unstable airmass. ...Lower Great Lakes/Upper Ohio River Valley... A remnant convective cluster/MCV over southern Ontario should broadly influence additional thunderstorm development to its east this afternoon across the lower Great Lakes and upper OH Valley regions. Instability is forecast to gradually increase with continued daytime heating and low-level moisture streaming northward. Deep-layer shear should remain generally weak (25 kt or less). Still, steepening low-level lapse rates and a moist/moderately unstable airmass could allow for some stronger pulse-type/occasionally clustering thunderstorms capable of producing localized wind damage this afternoon and early evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 172000Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND EASTWARD TO WISCONSIN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms potential persists across parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley, and over the central High Plains and northern Plains late this afternoon through tonight. Severe/damaging winds and large hail appear possible. ...Discussion... Ongoing convective evolution this afternoon remains largely in line with expectations, as laid out in prior outlooks. Generally minor line adjustments are all that appears necessary at this time, the most notable of which across the Wisconsin vicinity. Here, SLGT risk for hail/wind has been expanded southward in this update, to reflect severe risk evolving near the convective outflow that now arcs northeast to southwest across central Wisconsin, near where storms continue to initiate. Elsewhere, only minor changes to outlook areas appear necessary at this time. ..Goss.. 06/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024/ ...Upper Mississippi Valley/Upper Great Lakes... A loosely organized thunderstorm cluster is ongoing late this morning across northern WI into the U.P. of MI. With steep mid-level lapse rates present per the 12Z sounding from GRB, along with sufficient deep-layer shear to support organized updrafts, at least an isolated severe hail/wind risk should continue through the afternoon across this region along and east of a front. In the wake of this activity, large-scale ascent appears nebulous/weak across much of the upper MS Valley. Still, modest forcing associated with low-level warm advection through the day may be enough for additional convection to develop this afternoon along the southward extent of the front across this region. The best chance for this to occur appears to be across parts of northern IA/southern MN and perhaps western WI along and near the surface front, which may try to lift slowly northward through this afternoon/evening. If surface-based thunderstorms can develop across this area, they would pose some threat for severe hail and damaging winds given moderate forecast instability and sufficient deep-layer shear to support updraft organization. However, this scenario remains low confidence, as earlier convection has shunted the surface front well into IA this morning. This boundary is forecast to lift northward as a warm front tonight ahead of an mid/upper-level wave approaching from the northern/central Plains, and mainly a hail threat could persist across parts of MN and vicinity through early Tuesday morning with elevated supercells that may develop in a strengthening low-level warm advection regime. ...Northern/Central Plains... A pronounced upper trough/low over the Northwest will move eastward through the period over the northern/central Rockies and adjacent High Plains. Related surface lee cyclogenesis is expected to further occur through this evening over the central High Plains, focused on the northeast CO, southeast WY, and NE Panhandle vicinity. Multiple rounds and zones of severe thunderstorm potential still appear possible across much of the northern/central Plains this afternoon through tonight. Intense thunderstorm development may occur near the surface triple point in southwest NE and vicinity this afternoon, although the later timing of large-scale ascent associated with the upper trough casts some doubt on surface-based thunderstorm initiation. The presence of steep mid-level lapse rates and rich low-level moisture should aid in the development of moderate to strong instability as daytime heating occurs and as the warm front attempts to lift slowly northward across the central Plains. Deep-layer shear will be strong enough for supercells with associated large hail threat. Isolated very large hail may also occur. Some upscale growth/clustering along and near the front appears possible with time this evening, and a greater threat for severe/damaging winds may eventually be realized. Effective SRH is also forecast to quickly increase late this afternoon into the evening as a southerly low-level jet rapidly strengthens over the northern/central Plains. If any supercell can persist in this time frame, it would pose a threat for a tornado. A somewhat separate area of supercell potential is also evident across northeast WY/southeast MT, where modest low-level moisture return and upslope flow to the Bighorns may promote convective initiation later today as the upper trough continues eastward. Isolated to scattered large hail appears to be the main threat with this convection, if it develops and assuming sufficient instability can materialize. Otherwise, mainly elevated thunderstorms will likely develop and persist late this evening and overnight across a broader portion of the northern Plains. Large hail should be the main threat, although severe/damaging winds may occur with any convection that can remain near/south of the northward-lifting warm front. ...Southern High Plains... Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms may occur with southward extent along the length of the dryline/lee trough this afternoon across the southern High Plains. Deep-layer shear should remain fairly modest (generally 20-30 kt). Still, any convection that can develop late this afternoon may pose an isolated threat for severe wind gusts and hail through early evening given a moderately to strongly unstable airmass. ...Lower Great Lakes/Upper Ohio River Valley... A remnant convective cluster/MCV over southern Ontario should broadly influence additional thunderstorm development to its east this afternoon across the lower Great Lakes and upper OH Valley regions. Instability is forecast to gradually increase with continued daytime heating and low-level moisture streaming northward. Deep-layer shear should remain generally weak (25 kt or less). Still, steepening low-level lapse rates and a moist/moderately unstable airmass could allow for some stronger pulse-type/occasionally clustering thunderstorms capable of producing localized wind damage this afternoon and early evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 172000Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND EASTWARD TO WISCONSIN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms potential persists across parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley, and over the central High Plains and northern Plains late this afternoon through tonight. Severe/damaging winds and large hail appear possible. ...Discussion... Ongoing convective evolution this afternoon remains largely in line with expectations, as laid out in prior outlooks. Generally minor line adjustments are all that appears necessary at this time, the most notable of which across the Wisconsin vicinity. Here, SLGT risk for hail/wind has been expanded southward in this update, to reflect severe risk evolving near the convective outflow that now arcs northeast to southwest across central Wisconsin, near where storms continue to initiate. Elsewhere, only minor changes to outlook areas appear necessary at this time. ..Goss.. 06/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024/ ...Upper Mississippi Valley/Upper Great Lakes... A loosely organized thunderstorm cluster is ongoing late this morning across northern WI into the U.P. of MI. With steep mid-level lapse rates present per the 12Z sounding from GRB, along with sufficient deep-layer shear to support organized updrafts, at least an isolated severe hail/wind risk should continue through the afternoon across this region along and east of a front. In the wake of this activity, large-scale ascent appears nebulous/weak across much of the upper MS Valley. Still, modest forcing associated with low-level warm advection through the day may be enough for additional convection to develop this afternoon along the southward extent of the front across this region. The best chance for this to occur appears to be across parts of northern IA/southern MN and perhaps western WI along and near the surface front, which may try to lift slowly northward through this afternoon/evening. If surface-based thunderstorms can develop across this area, they would pose some threat for severe hail and damaging winds given moderate forecast instability and sufficient deep-layer shear to support updraft organization. However, this scenario remains low confidence, as earlier convection has shunted the surface front well into IA this morning. This boundary is forecast to lift northward as a warm front tonight ahead of an mid/upper-level wave approaching from the northern/central Plains, and mainly a hail threat could persist across parts of MN and vicinity through early Tuesday morning with elevated supercells that may develop in a strengthening low-level warm advection regime. ...Northern/Central Plains... A pronounced upper trough/low over the Northwest will move eastward through the period over the northern/central Rockies and adjacent High Plains. Related surface lee cyclogenesis is expected to further occur through this evening over the central High Plains, focused on the northeast CO, southeast WY, and NE Panhandle vicinity. Multiple rounds and zones of severe thunderstorm potential still appear possible across much of the northern/central Plains this afternoon through tonight. Intense thunderstorm development may occur near the surface triple point in southwest NE and vicinity this afternoon, although the later timing of large-scale ascent associated with the upper trough casts some doubt on surface-based thunderstorm initiation. The presence of steep mid-level lapse rates and rich low-level moisture should aid in the development of moderate to strong instability as daytime heating occurs and as the warm front attempts to lift slowly northward across the central Plains. Deep-layer shear will be strong enough for supercells with associated large hail threat. Isolated very large hail may also occur. Some upscale growth/clustering along and near the front appears possible with time this evening, and a greater threat for severe/damaging winds may eventually be realized. Effective SRH is also forecast to quickly increase late this afternoon into the evening as a southerly low-level jet rapidly strengthens over the northern/central Plains. If any supercell can persist in this time frame, it would pose a threat for a tornado. A somewhat separate area of supercell potential is also evident across northeast WY/southeast MT, where modest low-level moisture return and upslope flow to the Bighorns may promote convective initiation later today as the upper trough continues eastward. Isolated to scattered large hail appears to be the main threat with this convection, if it develops and assuming sufficient instability can materialize. Otherwise, mainly elevated thunderstorms will likely develop and persist late this evening and overnight across a broader portion of the northern Plains. Large hail should be the main threat, although severe/damaging winds may occur with any convection that can remain near/south of the northward-lifting warm front. ...Southern High Plains... Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms may occur with southward extent along the length of the dryline/lee trough this afternoon across the southern High Plains. Deep-layer shear should remain fairly modest (generally 20-30 kt). Still, any convection that can develop late this afternoon may pose an isolated threat for severe wind gusts and hail through early evening given a moderately to strongly unstable airmass. ...Lower Great Lakes/Upper Ohio River Valley... A remnant convective cluster/MCV over southern Ontario should broadly influence additional thunderstorm development to its east this afternoon across the lower Great Lakes and upper OH Valley regions. Instability is forecast to gradually increase with continued daytime heating and low-level moisture streaming northward. Deep-layer shear should remain generally weak (25 kt or less). Still, steepening low-level lapse rates and a moist/moderately unstable airmass could allow for some stronger pulse-type/occasionally clustering thunderstorms capable of producing localized wind damage this afternoon and early evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 172000Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND EASTWARD TO WISCONSIN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms potential persists across parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley, and over the central High Plains and northern Plains late this afternoon through tonight. Severe/damaging winds and large hail appear possible. ...Discussion... Ongoing convective evolution this afternoon remains largely in line with expectations, as laid out in prior outlooks. Generally minor line adjustments are all that appears necessary at this time, the most notable of which across the Wisconsin vicinity. Here, SLGT risk for hail/wind has been expanded southward in this update, to reflect severe risk evolving near the convective outflow that now arcs northeast to southwest across central Wisconsin, near where storms continue to initiate. Elsewhere, only minor changes to outlook areas appear necessary at this time. ..Goss.. 06/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024/ ...Upper Mississippi Valley/Upper Great Lakes... A loosely organized thunderstorm cluster is ongoing late this morning across northern WI into the U.P. of MI. With steep mid-level lapse rates present per the 12Z sounding from GRB, along with sufficient deep-layer shear to support organized updrafts, at least an isolated severe hail/wind risk should continue through the afternoon across this region along and east of a front. In the wake of this activity, large-scale ascent appears nebulous/weak across much of the upper MS Valley. Still, modest forcing associated with low-level warm advection through the day may be enough for additional convection to develop this afternoon along the southward extent of the front across this region. The best chance for this to occur appears to be across parts of northern IA/southern MN and perhaps western WI along and near the surface front, which may try to lift slowly northward through this afternoon/evening. If surface-based thunderstorms can develop across this area, they would pose some threat for severe hail and damaging winds given moderate forecast instability and sufficient deep-layer shear to support updraft organization. However, this scenario remains low confidence, as earlier convection has shunted the surface front well into IA this morning. This boundary is forecast to lift northward as a warm front tonight ahead of an mid/upper-level wave approaching from the northern/central Plains, and mainly a hail threat could persist across parts of MN and vicinity through early Tuesday morning with elevated supercells that may develop in a strengthening low-level warm advection regime. ...Northern/Central Plains... A pronounced upper trough/low over the Northwest will move eastward through the period over the northern/central Rockies and adjacent High Plains. Related surface lee cyclogenesis is expected to further occur through this evening over the central High Plains, focused on the northeast CO, southeast WY, and NE Panhandle vicinity. Multiple rounds and zones of severe thunderstorm potential still appear possible across much of the northern/central Plains this afternoon through tonight. Intense thunderstorm development may occur near the surface triple point in southwest NE and vicinity this afternoon, although the later timing of large-scale ascent associated with the upper trough casts some doubt on surface-based thunderstorm initiation. The presence of steep mid-level lapse rates and rich low-level moisture should aid in the development of moderate to strong instability as daytime heating occurs and as the warm front attempts to lift slowly northward across the central Plains. Deep-layer shear will be strong enough for supercells with associated large hail threat. Isolated very large hail may also occur. Some upscale growth/clustering along and near the front appears possible with time this evening, and a greater threat for severe/damaging winds may eventually be realized. Effective SRH is also forecast to quickly increase late this afternoon into the evening as a southerly low-level jet rapidly strengthens over the northern/central Plains. If any supercell can persist in this time frame, it would pose a threat for a tornado. A somewhat separate area of supercell potential is also evident across northeast WY/southeast MT, where modest low-level moisture return and upslope flow to the Bighorns may promote convective initiation later today as the upper trough continues eastward. Isolated to scattered large hail appears to be the main threat with this convection, if it develops and assuming sufficient instability can materialize. Otherwise, mainly elevated thunderstorms will likely develop and persist late this evening and overnight across a broader portion of the northern Plains. Large hail should be the main threat, although severe/damaging winds may occur with any convection that can remain near/south of the northward-lifting warm front. ...Southern High Plains... Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms may occur with southward extent along the length of the dryline/lee trough this afternoon across the southern High Plains. Deep-layer shear should remain fairly modest (generally 20-30 kt). Still, any convection that can develop late this afternoon may pose an isolated threat for severe wind gusts and hail through early evening given a moderately to strongly unstable airmass. ...Lower Great Lakes/Upper Ohio River Valley... A remnant convective cluster/MCV over southern Ontario should broadly influence additional thunderstorm development to its east this afternoon across the lower Great Lakes and upper OH Valley regions. Instability is forecast to gradually increase with continued daytime heating and low-level moisture streaming northward. Deep-layer shear should remain generally weak (25 kt or less). Still, steepening low-level lapse rates and a moist/moderately unstable airmass could allow for some stronger pulse-type/occasionally clustering thunderstorms capable of producing localized wind damage this afternoon and early evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 172000Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND EASTWARD TO WISCONSIN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms potential persists across parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley, and over the central High Plains and northern Plains late this afternoon through tonight. Severe/damaging winds and large hail appear possible. ...Discussion... Ongoing convective evolution this afternoon remains largely in line with expectations, as laid out in prior outlooks. Generally minor line adjustments are all that appears necessary at this time, the most notable of which across the Wisconsin vicinity. Here, SLGT risk for hail/wind has been expanded southward in this update, to reflect severe risk evolving near the convective outflow that now arcs northeast to southwest across central Wisconsin, near where storms continue to initiate. Elsewhere, only minor changes to outlook areas appear necessary at this time. ..Goss.. 06/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024/ ...Upper Mississippi Valley/Upper Great Lakes... A loosely organized thunderstorm cluster is ongoing late this morning across northern WI into the U.P. of MI. With steep mid-level lapse rates present per the 12Z sounding from GRB, along with sufficient deep-layer shear to support organized updrafts, at least an isolated severe hail/wind risk should continue through the afternoon across this region along and east of a front. In the wake of this activity, large-scale ascent appears nebulous/weak across much of the upper MS Valley. Still, modest forcing associated with low-level warm advection through the day may be enough for additional convection to develop this afternoon along the southward extent of the front across this region. The best chance for this to occur appears to be across parts of northern IA/southern MN and perhaps western WI along and near the surface front, which may try to lift slowly northward through this afternoon/evening. If surface-based thunderstorms can develop across this area, they would pose some threat for severe hail and damaging winds given moderate forecast instability and sufficient deep-layer shear to support updraft organization. However, this scenario remains low confidence, as earlier convection has shunted the surface front well into IA this morning. This boundary is forecast to lift northward as a warm front tonight ahead of an mid/upper-level wave approaching from the northern/central Plains, and mainly a hail threat could persist across parts of MN and vicinity through early Tuesday morning with elevated supercells that may develop in a strengthening low-level warm advection regime. ...Northern/Central Plains... A pronounced upper trough/low over the Northwest will move eastward through the period over the northern/central Rockies and adjacent High Plains. Related surface lee cyclogenesis is expected to further occur through this evening over the central High Plains, focused on the northeast CO, southeast WY, and NE Panhandle vicinity. Multiple rounds and zones of severe thunderstorm potential still appear possible across much of the northern/central Plains this afternoon through tonight. Intense thunderstorm development may occur near the surface triple point in southwest NE and vicinity this afternoon, although the later timing of large-scale ascent associated with the upper trough casts some doubt on surface-based thunderstorm initiation. The presence of steep mid-level lapse rates and rich low-level moisture should aid in the development of moderate to strong instability as daytime heating occurs and as the warm front attempts to lift slowly northward across the central Plains. Deep-layer shear will be strong enough for supercells with associated large hail threat. Isolated very large hail may also occur. Some upscale growth/clustering along and near the front appears possible with time this evening, and a greater threat for severe/damaging winds may eventually be realized. Effective SRH is also forecast to quickly increase late this afternoon into the evening as a southerly low-level jet rapidly strengthens over the northern/central Plains. If any supercell can persist in this time frame, it would pose a threat for a tornado. A somewhat separate area of supercell potential is also evident across northeast WY/southeast MT, where modest low-level moisture return and upslope flow to the Bighorns may promote convective initiation later today as the upper trough continues eastward. Isolated to scattered large hail appears to be the main threat with this convection, if it develops and assuming sufficient instability can materialize. Otherwise, mainly elevated thunderstorms will likely develop and persist late this evening and overnight across a broader portion of the northern Plains. Large hail should be the main threat, although severe/damaging winds may occur with any convection that can remain near/south of the northward-lifting warm front. ...Southern High Plains... Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms may occur with southward extent along the length of the dryline/lee trough this afternoon across the southern High Plains. Deep-layer shear should remain fairly modest (generally 20-30 kt). Still, any convection that can develop late this afternoon may pose an isolated threat for severe wind gusts and hail through early evening given a moderately to strongly unstable airmass. ...Lower Great Lakes/Upper Ohio River Valley... A remnant convective cluster/MCV over southern Ontario should broadly influence additional thunderstorm development to its east this afternoon across the lower Great Lakes and upper OH Valley regions. Instability is forecast to gradually increase with continued daytime heating and low-level moisture streaming northward. Deep-layer shear should remain generally weak (25 kt or less). Still, steepening low-level lapse rates and a moist/moderately unstable airmass could allow for some stronger pulse-type/occasionally clustering thunderstorms capable of producing localized wind damage this afternoon and early evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 172000Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND EASTWARD TO WISCONSIN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms potential persists across parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley, and over the central High Plains and northern Plains late this afternoon through tonight. Severe/damaging winds and large hail appear possible. ...Discussion... Ongoing convective evolution this afternoon remains largely in line with expectations, as laid out in prior outlooks. Generally minor line adjustments are all that appears necessary at this time, the most notable of which across the Wisconsin vicinity. Here, SLGT risk for hail/wind has been expanded southward in this update, to reflect severe risk evolving near the convective outflow that now arcs northeast to southwest across central Wisconsin, near where storms continue to initiate. Elsewhere, only minor changes to outlook areas appear necessary at this time. ..Goss.. 06/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024/ ...Upper Mississippi Valley/Upper Great Lakes... A loosely organized thunderstorm cluster is ongoing late this morning across northern WI into the U.P. of MI. With steep mid-level lapse rates present per the 12Z sounding from GRB, along with sufficient deep-layer shear to support organized updrafts, at least an isolated severe hail/wind risk should continue through the afternoon across this region along and east of a front. In the wake of this activity, large-scale ascent appears nebulous/weak across much of the upper MS Valley. Still, modest forcing associated with low-level warm advection through the day may be enough for additional convection to develop this afternoon along the southward extent of the front across this region. The best chance for this to occur appears to be across parts of northern IA/southern MN and perhaps western WI along and near the surface front, which may try to lift slowly northward through this afternoon/evening. If surface-based thunderstorms can develop across this area, they would pose some threat for severe hail and damaging winds given moderate forecast instability and sufficient deep-layer shear to support updraft organization. However, this scenario remains low confidence, as earlier convection has shunted the surface front well into IA this morning. This boundary is forecast to lift northward as a warm front tonight ahead of an mid/upper-level wave approaching from the northern/central Plains, and mainly a hail threat could persist across parts of MN and vicinity through early Tuesday morning with elevated supercells that may develop in a strengthening low-level warm advection regime. ...Northern/Central Plains... A pronounced upper trough/low over the Northwest will move eastward through the period over the northern/central Rockies and adjacent High Plains. Related surface lee cyclogenesis is expected to further occur through this evening over the central High Plains, focused on the northeast CO, southeast WY, and NE Panhandle vicinity. Multiple rounds and zones of severe thunderstorm potential still appear possible across much of the northern/central Plains this afternoon through tonight. Intense thunderstorm development may occur near the surface triple point in southwest NE and vicinity this afternoon, although the later timing of large-scale ascent associated with the upper trough casts some doubt on surface-based thunderstorm initiation. The presence of steep mid-level lapse rates and rich low-level moisture should aid in the development of moderate to strong instability as daytime heating occurs and as the warm front attempts to lift slowly northward across the central Plains. Deep-layer shear will be strong enough for supercells with associated large hail threat. Isolated very large hail may also occur. Some upscale growth/clustering along and near the front appears possible with time this evening, and a greater threat for severe/damaging winds may eventually be realized. Effective SRH is also forecast to quickly increase late this afternoon into the evening as a southerly low-level jet rapidly strengthens over the northern/central Plains. If any supercell can persist in this time frame, it would pose a threat for a tornado. A somewhat separate area of supercell potential is also evident across northeast WY/southeast MT, where modest low-level moisture return and upslope flow to the Bighorns may promote convective initiation later today as the upper trough continues eastward. Isolated to scattered large hail appears to be the main threat with this convection, if it develops and assuming sufficient instability can materialize. Otherwise, mainly elevated thunderstorms will likely develop and persist late this evening and overnight across a broader portion of the northern Plains. Large hail should be the main threat, although severe/damaging winds may occur with any convection that can remain near/south of the northward-lifting warm front. ...Southern High Plains... Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms may occur with southward extent along the length of the dryline/lee trough this afternoon across the southern High Plains. Deep-layer shear should remain fairly modest (generally 20-30 kt). Still, any convection that can develop late this afternoon may pose an isolated threat for severe wind gusts and hail through early evening given a moderately to strongly unstable airmass. ...Lower Great Lakes/Upper Ohio River Valley... A remnant convective cluster/MCV over southern Ontario should broadly influence additional thunderstorm development to its east this afternoon across the lower Great Lakes and upper OH Valley regions. Instability is forecast to gradually increase with continued daytime heating and low-level moisture streaming northward. Deep-layer shear should remain generally weak (25 kt or less). Still, steepening low-level lapse rates and a moist/moderately unstable airmass could allow for some stronger pulse-type/occasionally clustering thunderstorms capable of producing localized wind damage this afternoon and early evening. Read more