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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1240 AM CDT Fri Aug 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...Synopsis... The upper-level tough will continue into the northern Rockies, though it will lose more amplitude on Saturday. A surface trough will deepen in the northern Great Basin beneath a belt of stronger mid-level winds. Elevated fire weather conditions appear probable in portions of northern Nevada into southern Idaho. Surface winds near the trough and the lee of the Sierra will increase to 15-20 mph with RH falling into the teens to perhaps single digits during the afternoon. Additional isolated thunderstorms are possible in central Idaho. Given the stronger flow aloft and dry boundary layer, these storms may produce little rainfall. Some impact on fuels from potential precipitation occurring on Friday could occur. Highlights will be maintained where confidence in storm development is highest and fuels are sufficiently receptive. ..Wendt.. 08/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1240 AM CDT Fri Aug 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...Synopsis... The upper-level tough will continue into the northern Rockies, though it will lose more amplitude on Saturday. A surface trough will deepen in the northern Great Basin beneath a belt of stronger mid-level winds. Elevated fire weather conditions appear probable in portions of northern Nevada into southern Idaho. Surface winds near the trough and the lee of the Sierra will increase to 15-20 mph with RH falling into the teens to perhaps single digits during the afternoon. Additional isolated thunderstorms are possible in central Idaho. Given the stronger flow aloft and dry boundary layer, these storms may produce little rainfall. Some impact on fuels from potential precipitation occurring on Friday could occur. Highlights will be maintained where confidence in storm development is highest and fuels are sufficiently receptive. ..Wendt.. 08/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1240 AM CDT Fri Aug 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...Synopsis... The upper-level tough will continue into the northern Rockies, though it will lose more amplitude on Saturday. A surface trough will deepen in the northern Great Basin beneath a belt of stronger mid-level winds. Elevated fire weather conditions appear probable in portions of northern Nevada into southern Idaho. Surface winds near the trough and the lee of the Sierra will increase to 15-20 mph with RH falling into the teens to perhaps single digits during the afternoon. Additional isolated thunderstorms are possible in central Idaho. Given the stronger flow aloft and dry boundary layer, these storms may produce little rainfall. Some impact on fuels from potential precipitation occurring on Friday could occur. Highlights will be maintained where confidence in storm development is highest and fuels are sufficiently receptive. ..Wendt.. 08/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1240 AM CDT Fri Aug 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...Synopsis... The upper-level tough will continue into the northern Rockies, though it will lose more amplitude on Saturday. A surface trough will deepen in the northern Great Basin beneath a belt of stronger mid-level winds. Elevated fire weather conditions appear probable in portions of northern Nevada into southern Idaho. Surface winds near the trough and the lee of the Sierra will increase to 15-20 mph with RH falling into the teens to perhaps single digits during the afternoon. Additional isolated thunderstorms are possible in central Idaho. Given the stronger flow aloft and dry boundary layer, these storms may produce little rainfall. Some impact on fuels from potential precipitation occurring on Friday could occur. Highlights will be maintained where confidence in storm development is highest and fuels are sufficiently receptive. ..Wendt.. 08/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1240 AM CDT Fri Aug 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...Synopsis... The upper-level tough will continue into the northern Rockies, though it will lose more amplitude on Saturday. A surface trough will deepen in the northern Great Basin beneath a belt of stronger mid-level winds. Elevated fire weather conditions appear probable in portions of northern Nevada into southern Idaho. Surface winds near the trough and the lee of the Sierra will increase to 15-20 mph with RH falling into the teens to perhaps single digits during the afternoon. Additional isolated thunderstorms are possible in central Idaho. Given the stronger flow aloft and dry boundary layer, these storms may produce little rainfall. Some impact on fuels from potential precipitation occurring on Friday could occur. Highlights will be maintained where confidence in storm development is highest and fuels are sufficiently receptive. ..Wendt.. 08/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CDT Fri Aug 09 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...Synopsis... A subdued upper-level ridge will persist within the Great Basin into part of the northern Rockies. In the Northwest, a low-amplitude upper trough will make gradual progress eastward through the day. Some isolated thunderstorm activity, some of which may be dry, is possible in the northern Cascades as well as central Idaho into western Wyoming. Storm motions in Washington will a touch on the slow side, make a mix of wet/dry storms probable. Storms have some potential to be drier in the northern Rockies given the belt of stronger mid-level winds aloft. Fuels within the terrain have generally received lower rainfall amounts recently and fuels indices suggest some degree of receptiveness. Marginally dry and breezy conditions are also expected in the lee of the northern Sierra into adjacent parts of the northern Great Basin. Winds will not be overly strong and any sustained elevated conditions are likely to be spatially limited. ..Wendt.. 08/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CDT Fri Aug 09 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...Synopsis... A subdued upper-level ridge will persist within the Great Basin into part of the northern Rockies. In the Northwest, a low-amplitude upper trough will make gradual progress eastward through the day. Some isolated thunderstorm activity, some of which may be dry, is possible in the northern Cascades as well as central Idaho into western Wyoming. Storm motions in Washington will a touch on the slow side, make a mix of wet/dry storms probable. Storms have some potential to be drier in the northern Rockies given the belt of stronger mid-level winds aloft. Fuels within the terrain have generally received lower rainfall amounts recently and fuels indices suggest some degree of receptiveness. Marginally dry and breezy conditions are also expected in the lee of the northern Sierra into adjacent parts of the northern Great Basin. Winds will not be overly strong and any sustained elevated conditions are likely to be spatially limited. ..Wendt.. 08/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CDT Fri Aug 09 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...Synopsis... A subdued upper-level ridge will persist within the Great Basin into part of the northern Rockies. In the Northwest, a low-amplitude upper trough will make gradual progress eastward through the day. Some isolated thunderstorm activity, some of which may be dry, is possible in the northern Cascades as well as central Idaho into western Wyoming. Storm motions in Washington will a touch on the slow side, make a mix of wet/dry storms probable. Storms have some potential to be drier in the northern Rockies given the belt of stronger mid-level winds aloft. Fuels within the terrain have generally received lower rainfall amounts recently and fuels indices suggest some degree of receptiveness. Marginally dry and breezy conditions are also expected in the lee of the northern Sierra into adjacent parts of the northern Great Basin. Winds will not be overly strong and any sustained elevated conditions are likely to be spatially limited. ..Wendt.. 08/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CDT Fri Aug 09 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...Synopsis... A subdued upper-level ridge will persist within the Great Basin into part of the northern Rockies. In the Northwest, a low-amplitude upper trough will make gradual progress eastward through the day. Some isolated thunderstorm activity, some of which may be dry, is possible in the northern Cascades as well as central Idaho into western Wyoming. Storm motions in Washington will a touch on the slow side, make a mix of wet/dry storms probable. Storms have some potential to be drier in the northern Rockies given the belt of stronger mid-level winds aloft. Fuels within the terrain have generally received lower rainfall amounts recently and fuels indices suggest some degree of receptiveness. Marginally dry and breezy conditions are also expected in the lee of the northern Sierra into adjacent parts of the northern Great Basin. Winds will not be overly strong and any sustained elevated conditions are likely to be spatially limited. ..Wendt.. 08/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CDT Fri Aug 09 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...Synopsis... A subdued upper-level ridge will persist within the Great Basin into part of the northern Rockies. In the Northwest, a low-amplitude upper trough will make gradual progress eastward through the day. Some isolated thunderstorm activity, some of which may be dry, is possible in the northern Cascades as well as central Idaho into western Wyoming. Storm motions in Washington will a touch on the slow side, make a mix of wet/dry storms probable. Storms have some potential to be drier in the northern Rockies given the belt of stronger mid-level winds aloft. Fuels within the terrain have generally received lower rainfall amounts recently and fuels indices suggest some degree of receptiveness. Marginally dry and breezy conditions are also expected in the lee of the northern Sierra into adjacent parts of the northern Great Basin. Winds will not be overly strong and any sustained elevated conditions are likely to be spatially limited. ..Wendt.. 08/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CDT Fri Aug 09 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...Synopsis... A subdued upper-level ridge will persist within the Great Basin into part of the northern Rockies. In the Northwest, a low-amplitude upper trough will make gradual progress eastward through the day. Some isolated thunderstorm activity, some of which may be dry, is possible in the northern Cascades as well as central Idaho into western Wyoming. Storm motions in Washington will a touch on the slow side, make a mix of wet/dry storms probable. Storms have some potential to be drier in the northern Rockies given the belt of stronger mid-level winds aloft. Fuels within the terrain have generally received lower rainfall amounts recently and fuels indices suggest some degree of receptiveness. Marginally dry and breezy conditions are also expected in the lee of the northern Sierra into adjacent parts of the northern Great Basin. Winds will not be overly strong and any sustained elevated conditions are likely to be spatially limited. ..Wendt.. 08/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CDT Fri Aug 09 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...Synopsis... A subdued upper-level ridge will persist within the Great Basin into part of the northern Rockies. In the Northwest, a low-amplitude upper trough will make gradual progress eastward through the day. Some isolated thunderstorm activity, some of which may be dry, is possible in the northern Cascades as well as central Idaho into western Wyoming. Storm motions in Washington will a touch on the slow side, make a mix of wet/dry storms probable. Storms have some potential to be drier in the northern Rockies given the belt of stronger mid-level winds aloft. Fuels within the terrain have generally received lower rainfall amounts recently and fuels indices suggest some degree of receptiveness. Marginally dry and breezy conditions are also expected in the lee of the northern Sierra into adjacent parts of the northern Great Basin. Winds will not be overly strong and any sustained elevated conditions are likely to be spatially limited. ..Wendt.. 08/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CDT Fri Aug 09 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...Synopsis... A subdued upper-level ridge will persist within the Great Basin into part of the northern Rockies. In the Northwest, a low-amplitude upper trough will make gradual progress eastward through the day. Some isolated thunderstorm activity, some of which may be dry, is possible in the northern Cascades as well as central Idaho into western Wyoming. Storm motions in Washington will a touch on the slow side, make a mix of wet/dry storms probable. Storms have some potential to be drier in the northern Rockies given the belt of stronger mid-level winds aloft. Fuels within the terrain have generally received lower rainfall amounts recently and fuels indices suggest some degree of receptiveness. Marginally dry and breezy conditions are also expected in the lee of the northern Sierra into adjacent parts of the northern Great Basin. Winds will not be overly strong and any sustained elevated conditions are likely to be spatially limited. ..Wendt.. 08/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

371
ABPZ20 KNHC 090501
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Thu Aug 8 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on
Post-Tropical Cyclone Emilia, located almost a thousand miles west
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

South of Southern Mexico:
A tropical wave located a few hundred miles south of the coast of
Guatemala is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Gradual development of this system will be possible during the next
several days while it moves west-northwestward at around 15 mph,
parallel to the coast of southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

MD 1871 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 615... FOR MIDDLE ATLANTIC
Mesoscale Discussion 1871 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1004 PM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024 Areas affected...Middle Atlantic Concerning...Tornado Watch 615... Valid 090304Z - 090500Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 615 continues. SUMMARY...Severe threat will gradually spread into extreme southern Pennsylvania over the next several hours. However, this threat will be limited by weaker buoyancy. DISCUSSION...Tropical warm sector is gradually advancing north across the Delmarva, per mid 70s surface dew points approaching southeast PA. Latest diagnostic data suggests a fairly well-defined boundary extends from central NJ-extreme southeast PA-northern VA. Low-level shear has also increased at CCX where 0-3km SRH is now around 350 m2/s2. Strongest updrafts have been confined to the tropical warm sector and this will likely continue as buoyancy is quite limited north of the boundary. Given the poor lapse rates, it appears mid 70s dew points may be necessary for robust, longer-lived updrafts. If/until this air mass spreads north, confidence is not particularly high enough to warrant a new tornado watch. However, will continue to monitor this transition zone for recovery north of ww615. ..Darrow.. 08/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...CTP...LWX... LAT...LON 39717828 40157663 40057569 39487574 39137695 38977813 39717828 Read more

WW 0615 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 615 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SPC..08/09/24 ATTN...WFO...LWX...MHX...AKQ...RNK...RAH... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 615 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS DCC001-090440- DC . DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA MDC003-005-009-013-015-017-021-025-027-031-033-037-043-510- 090440- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANNE ARUNDEL BALTIMORE CALVERT CARROLL CECIL CHARLES FREDERICK HARFORD HOWARD MONTGOMERY PRINCE GEORGES ST. MARYS WASHINGTON MARYLAND INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE BALTIMORE CITY Read more

WW 0615 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 615 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SPC..08/09/24 ATTN...WFO...LWX...MHX...AKQ...RNK...RAH... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 615 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS DCC001-090440- DC . DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA MDC003-005-009-013-015-017-021-025-027-031-033-037-043-510- 090440- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANNE ARUNDEL BALTIMORE CALVERT CARROLL CECIL CHARLES FREDERICK HARFORD HOWARD MONTGOMERY PRINCE GEORGES ST. MARYS WASHINGTON MARYLAND INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE BALTIMORE CITY Read more

Issued at 800 PM PDT Thu Aug 08 2024 344 WTPZ45 KNHC 090244 TCDEP5 Post-Tropical Cyclone Emilia Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052024 800 PM PDT Thu Aug 08 2024 Emilia has failed to produce much in the way of organized convection since the prior burst waned earlier this morning, aside from a small patch of -50 C cloud tops currently south of the estimated center. SAB Dvorak classifications have been too weak to classify since this afternoon, while the TAFB Final-T number is down to 2.0/30-kt which was constrained from going lower. While there might continue to be some occasional puffs of convection with Emilia over the next day or so, the cyclone has crossed the 24 C isotherm and heading towards even cooler ocean waters, and the chance of a more significant convective resurgence is low. Thus, Emilia is being declared a 30-kt post-tropical remnant low this cycle, and this will be the last NHC advisory. The system continues to move generally west-northwestward at 290/10 kt. This motion should continue for the next several days followed by a turn more westward beyond 36 h as the low continues to weaken and becomes more steered by the low-level trade wind flow. The NHC track forecast is largely an update of the previous forecast, in good agreement with the multi-model consensus aids. The latest forecast now shows the remnant low dissipating after 72 h, a bit faster than before. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0300Z 22.3N 125.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 12H 09/1200Z 22.9N 127.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 10/0000Z 23.5N 129.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 10/1200Z 24.1N 131.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 11/0000Z 24.6N 132.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 11/1200Z 24.8N 134.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 12/0000Z 24.7N 136.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI AUG 09 2024 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 090242 PWSEP5 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE EMILIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052024 0300 UTC FRI AUG 09 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE EMILIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 125.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 25N 130W 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 25N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 09 Aug 2024 02:42:32 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 09 Aug 2024 03:22:44 GMT