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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN UTAH...NORTHERN ARIZONA...WESTERN NEW MEXICO...AND FAR SOUTHWEST COLORADO... The Elevated risk area in central California has been expanded southward to cover most of the San Joaquin Valley along with adjacent areas of the western Transverse Ranges and the southern Sierra Nevada. Fuels in the area have rapidly dried. Additionally, the ongoing Post Fire has been displaying rapid growth in the presence of strong winds (gusts of 40-50 mph with higher gusts in mountain gaps) despite somewhat marginal RH for the area (15-25% minimums). All of this highlights the potential for further fire activity in the region. Otherwise, the Critical area has been expanded in southern Utah and northern Arizona with better confidence in Critical fire weather conditions overlapping areas of dry fuels. See the previous discussion for further details. ..Supinie.. 06/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0155 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024/ ...Synopsis... A secondary shortwave will rotate through the western US trough on Monday, bringing continued strong southwesterly flow across much of the desert southwest into the southern High Plains. Across northeastern Arizona, southeastern Utah, and portions of western New Mexico, afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap sustained winds around 20 mph. Fuels in this region are critically dry, supporting maintaining a Critical delineation across these regions on Monday. Broader Elevated fire weather concerns are expected across much of Arizona into southern/central Utah, eastern Nevada, and into western New Mexico and southern Colorado. Elevated fire weather concerns are also expected as strong northwesterly flow at 10-15 mph on the backside of the trough overlaps relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent (locally around 10 percent) within the Sacramento Valley and San Joaquin Valley in northern/central California. Fuels within this region are sufficiently dry to support Elevated fire weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN UTAH...NORTHERN ARIZONA...WESTERN NEW MEXICO...AND FAR SOUTHWEST COLORADO... The Elevated risk area in central California has been expanded southward to cover most of the San Joaquin Valley along with adjacent areas of the western Transverse Ranges and the southern Sierra Nevada. Fuels in the area have rapidly dried. Additionally, the ongoing Post Fire has been displaying rapid growth in the presence of strong winds (gusts of 40-50 mph with higher gusts in mountain gaps) despite somewhat marginal RH for the area (15-25% minimums). All of this highlights the potential for further fire activity in the region. Otherwise, the Critical area has been expanded in southern Utah and northern Arizona with better confidence in Critical fire weather conditions overlapping areas of dry fuels. See the previous discussion for further details. ..Supinie.. 06/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0155 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024/ ...Synopsis... A secondary shortwave will rotate through the western US trough on Monday, bringing continued strong southwesterly flow across much of the desert southwest into the southern High Plains. Across northeastern Arizona, southeastern Utah, and portions of western New Mexico, afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap sustained winds around 20 mph. Fuels in this region are critically dry, supporting maintaining a Critical delineation across these regions on Monday. Broader Elevated fire weather concerns are expected across much of Arizona into southern/central Utah, eastern Nevada, and into western New Mexico and southern Colorado. Elevated fire weather concerns are also expected as strong northwesterly flow at 10-15 mph on the backside of the trough overlaps relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent (locally around 10 percent) within the Sacramento Valley and San Joaquin Valley in northern/central California. Fuels within this region are sufficiently dry to support Elevated fire weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN UTAH...NORTHERN ARIZONA...WESTERN NEW MEXICO...AND FAR SOUTHWEST COLORADO... The Elevated risk area in central California has been expanded southward to cover most of the San Joaquin Valley along with adjacent areas of the western Transverse Ranges and the southern Sierra Nevada. Fuels in the area have rapidly dried. Additionally, the ongoing Post Fire has been displaying rapid growth in the presence of strong winds (gusts of 40-50 mph with higher gusts in mountain gaps) despite somewhat marginal RH for the area (15-25% minimums). All of this highlights the potential for further fire activity in the region. Otherwise, the Critical area has been expanded in southern Utah and northern Arizona with better confidence in Critical fire weather conditions overlapping areas of dry fuels. See the previous discussion for further details. ..Supinie.. 06/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0155 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024/ ...Synopsis... A secondary shortwave will rotate through the western US trough on Monday, bringing continued strong southwesterly flow across much of the desert southwest into the southern High Plains. Across northeastern Arizona, southeastern Utah, and portions of western New Mexico, afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap sustained winds around 20 mph. Fuels in this region are critically dry, supporting maintaining a Critical delineation across these regions on Monday. Broader Elevated fire weather concerns are expected across much of Arizona into southern/central Utah, eastern Nevada, and into western New Mexico and southern Colorado. Elevated fire weather concerns are also expected as strong northwesterly flow at 10-15 mph on the backside of the trough overlaps relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent (locally around 10 percent) within the Sacramento Valley and San Joaquin Valley in northern/central California. Fuels within this region are sufficiently dry to support Elevated fire weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN UTAH...NORTHERN ARIZONA...WESTERN NEW MEXICO...AND FAR SOUTHWEST COLORADO... The Elevated risk area in central California has been expanded southward to cover most of the San Joaquin Valley along with adjacent areas of the western Transverse Ranges and the southern Sierra Nevada. Fuels in the area have rapidly dried. Additionally, the ongoing Post Fire has been displaying rapid growth in the presence of strong winds (gusts of 40-50 mph with higher gusts in mountain gaps) despite somewhat marginal RH for the area (15-25% minimums). All of this highlights the potential for further fire activity in the region. Otherwise, the Critical area has been expanded in southern Utah and northern Arizona with better confidence in Critical fire weather conditions overlapping areas of dry fuels. See the previous discussion for further details. ..Supinie.. 06/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0155 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024/ ...Synopsis... A secondary shortwave will rotate through the western US trough on Monday, bringing continued strong southwesterly flow across much of the desert southwest into the southern High Plains. Across northeastern Arizona, southeastern Utah, and portions of western New Mexico, afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap sustained winds around 20 mph. Fuels in this region are critically dry, supporting maintaining a Critical delineation across these regions on Monday. Broader Elevated fire weather concerns are expected across much of Arizona into southern/central Utah, eastern Nevada, and into western New Mexico and southern Colorado. Elevated fire weather concerns are also expected as strong northwesterly flow at 10-15 mph on the backside of the trough overlaps relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent (locally around 10 percent) within the Sacramento Valley and San Joaquin Valley in northern/central California. Fuels within this region are sufficiently dry to support Elevated fire weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 1289 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN IOWA AND NORTHWESTERN ILLINOIS
Mesoscale Discussion 1289 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Areas affected...parts of southeastern Iowa and northwestern Illinois Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 161733Z - 161930Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...A cluster of intensifying thunderstorms may pose a risk for small to marginally severe hail, before gradually organizing and posing increasing potential to produce strong to severe wind gusts through 2-4 PM CDT. A severe weather watch will probably be needed at some point this afternoon, though it remains a bit uncertain how soon. DISCUSSION...Renewed thunderstorm development is underway near the center of a convectively generated or enhanced mid-level cyclonic vorticity center now approaching the Mississippi River vicinity between Burlington and Moline. This perturbation is embedded within the southern portion of weak mid-level troughing which has emerged from the Great Plains and is forecast to continue shifting into/across the upper Great Lakes through late afternoon, while mid-level heights otherwise tend to rise. While deeper-layer shear is weak, an enhanced belt of lower/mid-troposperic flow (40+ kt centered around 700 mb) may contribute to shear profiles conducive to an upscale growing and organizing cluster of storms. This will include a configuration allowing for easterly high-level system relative flow advecting anvil cloud cover and precipitation upstream (to the west), and not impeding destabilization within modest easterly near-surface updraft inflow. Mid-level inhibition for parcels within a gradually moistening boundary layer (including surface dew points now around or above 70F) across northwestern Illinois is becoming increasingly negligible with continuing insolation, and CAPE is increasing in excess of 2000 J/kg. As the updraft inflow of ongoing convection continues to become increasingly unstable, substantive further intensification and upscale growth seems probable during the next few hours. It is possible that this could be accompanied a risk for marginally severe hail, before latent cooling in downdrafts gradually contributes to a strengthening northeastward and eastward propagating cold pool with increasing potential to produce strong to severe surface gusts. ..Kerr/Gleason.. 06/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...DVN... LAT...LON 40429054 40489126 40849117 41029117 41349134 41689065 42068990 42078913 41598873 41128889 40678959 40429054 Read more

WW 0424 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0424 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

No watches are valid as of Sun Jun 16 17:58:02 UTC 2024.

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible Monday over much of the northern Plains toward the upper Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Upper pattern early Monday morning is forecast to feature expansive ridging centered over the Carolinas that covers much of the eastern CONUS and a cyclone over the Pacific Northwest with associated troughing over the much of the western CONUS. Southwesterly flow aloft will persist across the northern and central Plains between these two features, with some strengthening of this flow anticipated as the western CONUS cyclone progresses eastward across the northern Rockies and northern High Plains, and the ridging over the eastern CONUS remains in place. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing from the mid MO Valley into the Upper Midwest, to the north of a warm front expected to extend from a surface low over the southwest NE/northwest KS vicinity northeastward to another low near the WI/MI border. These showers and thunderstorms are expected to gradually shift northeastward throughout the day, remaining mostly north of the warm front. There is some chance that this activity restrengthens during the late afternoon/early evening over east-central MN and central/northern WI, where the warm front is expected to make gradual northward progress during the day. Ample low-level moisture and strong buoyancy south of the warm front suggests surface-based supercells capable of all severe hazards, including tornadoes, are possible. However, the overall evolution of this convective cluster still remains a bit uncertain, with some guidance keeping it well north of the warm front. This uncertainty precludes higher probabilities in this outlook. Farther west, late afternoon thunderstorm development appears possible along the lee trough arcing from southeast MT south into far eastern CO/western KS. Highest probabilities for surface-based, late afternoon/early evening storms appears to be across the central High Plains. Any storms that do form could produce hail initially, before quickly becoming more outflow dominant. There is some potential storms develop close enough to one another for upscale growth, with the resulting convective line progressing east-northeastward across southern NE. Thunderstorm development also appears probable across southeast MT amid moisture upslope flow and strengthening large-scale ascent ahead of the approaching shortwave trough. These storms will likely be elevated, with hail as the primary hazard, but a few strong gusts could still reach the surface. Isolated storms are possible farther south across the southern High Plains, but warmer temperatures aloft and displacement south of the better large-scale ascent should keep coverage isolated. High-based character to any storms that do develop could promote damaging gusts. The low-level jet is expected to strengthen during the evening, likely increasing to near 60 kt from the central Plains into the Upper Midwest. Associated warm-air advection will likely result in thunderstorm development north of the warm front across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Enough vertical shear and elevated buoyancy is in place for severe storms, with large hail as the primary hazards. This activity is currently expected to stay north of the warm front, but this front is forecast to move northward through much of MN by early Tuesday. As a result, these is some chance a storms may trend towards becoming surface-based early Tuesday morning if they develop far enough south. ..Mosier.. 06/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible Monday over much of the northern Plains toward the upper Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Upper pattern early Monday morning is forecast to feature expansive ridging centered over the Carolinas that covers much of the eastern CONUS and a cyclone over the Pacific Northwest with associated troughing over the much of the western CONUS. Southwesterly flow aloft will persist across the northern and central Plains between these two features, with some strengthening of this flow anticipated as the western CONUS cyclone progresses eastward across the northern Rockies and northern High Plains, and the ridging over the eastern CONUS remains in place. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing from the mid MO Valley into the Upper Midwest, to the north of a warm front expected to extend from a surface low over the southwest NE/northwest KS vicinity northeastward to another low near the WI/MI border. These showers and thunderstorms are expected to gradually shift northeastward throughout the day, remaining mostly north of the warm front. There is some chance that this activity restrengthens during the late afternoon/early evening over east-central MN and central/northern WI, where the warm front is expected to make gradual northward progress during the day. Ample low-level moisture and strong buoyancy south of the warm front suggests surface-based supercells capable of all severe hazards, including tornadoes, are possible. However, the overall evolution of this convective cluster still remains a bit uncertain, with some guidance keeping it well north of the warm front. This uncertainty precludes higher probabilities in this outlook. Farther west, late afternoon thunderstorm development appears possible along the lee trough arcing from southeast MT south into far eastern CO/western KS. Highest probabilities for surface-based, late afternoon/early evening storms appears to be across the central High Plains. Any storms that do form could produce hail initially, before quickly becoming more outflow dominant. There is some potential storms develop close enough to one another for upscale growth, with the resulting convective line progressing east-northeastward across southern NE. Thunderstorm development also appears probable across southeast MT amid moisture upslope flow and strengthening large-scale ascent ahead of the approaching shortwave trough. These storms will likely be elevated, with hail as the primary hazard, but a few strong gusts could still reach the surface. Isolated storms are possible farther south across the southern High Plains, but warmer temperatures aloft and displacement south of the better large-scale ascent should keep coverage isolated. High-based character to any storms that do develop could promote damaging gusts. The low-level jet is expected to strengthen during the evening, likely increasing to near 60 kt from the central Plains into the Upper Midwest. Associated warm-air advection will likely result in thunderstorm development north of the warm front across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Enough vertical shear and elevated buoyancy is in place for severe storms, with large hail as the primary hazards. This activity is currently expected to stay north of the warm front, but this front is forecast to move northward through much of MN by early Tuesday. As a result, these is some chance a storms may trend towards becoming surface-based early Tuesday morning if they develop far enough south. ..Mosier.. 06/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible Monday over much of the northern Plains toward the upper Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Upper pattern early Monday morning is forecast to feature expansive ridging centered over the Carolinas that covers much of the eastern CONUS and a cyclone over the Pacific Northwest with associated troughing over the much of the western CONUS. Southwesterly flow aloft will persist across the northern and central Plains between these two features, with some strengthening of this flow anticipated as the western CONUS cyclone progresses eastward across the northern Rockies and northern High Plains, and the ridging over the eastern CONUS remains in place. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing from the mid MO Valley into the Upper Midwest, to the north of a warm front expected to extend from a surface low over the southwest NE/northwest KS vicinity northeastward to another low near the WI/MI border. These showers and thunderstorms are expected to gradually shift northeastward throughout the day, remaining mostly north of the warm front. There is some chance that this activity restrengthens during the late afternoon/early evening over east-central MN and central/northern WI, where the warm front is expected to make gradual northward progress during the day. Ample low-level moisture and strong buoyancy south of the warm front suggests surface-based supercells capable of all severe hazards, including tornadoes, are possible. However, the overall evolution of this convective cluster still remains a bit uncertain, with some guidance keeping it well north of the warm front. This uncertainty precludes higher probabilities in this outlook. Farther west, late afternoon thunderstorm development appears possible along the lee trough arcing from southeast MT south into far eastern CO/western KS. Highest probabilities for surface-based, late afternoon/early evening storms appears to be across the central High Plains. Any storms that do form could produce hail initially, before quickly becoming more outflow dominant. There is some potential storms develop close enough to one another for upscale growth, with the resulting convective line progressing east-northeastward across southern NE. Thunderstorm development also appears probable across southeast MT amid moisture upslope flow and strengthening large-scale ascent ahead of the approaching shortwave trough. These storms will likely be elevated, with hail as the primary hazard, but a few strong gusts could still reach the surface. Isolated storms are possible farther south across the southern High Plains, but warmer temperatures aloft and displacement south of the better large-scale ascent should keep coverage isolated. High-based character to any storms that do develop could promote damaging gusts. The low-level jet is expected to strengthen during the evening, likely increasing to near 60 kt from the central Plains into the Upper Midwest. Associated warm-air advection will likely result in thunderstorm development north of the warm front across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Enough vertical shear and elevated buoyancy is in place for severe storms, with large hail as the primary hazards. This activity is currently expected to stay north of the warm front, but this front is forecast to move northward through much of MN by early Tuesday. As a result, these is some chance a storms may trend towards becoming surface-based early Tuesday morning if they develop far enough south. ..Mosier.. 06/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible Monday over much of the northern Plains toward the upper Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Upper pattern early Monday morning is forecast to feature expansive ridging centered over the Carolinas that covers much of the eastern CONUS and a cyclone over the Pacific Northwest with associated troughing over the much of the western CONUS. Southwesterly flow aloft will persist across the northern and central Plains between these two features, with some strengthening of this flow anticipated as the western CONUS cyclone progresses eastward across the northern Rockies and northern High Plains, and the ridging over the eastern CONUS remains in place. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing from the mid MO Valley into the Upper Midwest, to the north of a warm front expected to extend from a surface low over the southwest NE/northwest KS vicinity northeastward to another low near the WI/MI border. These showers and thunderstorms are expected to gradually shift northeastward throughout the day, remaining mostly north of the warm front. There is some chance that this activity restrengthens during the late afternoon/early evening over east-central MN and central/northern WI, where the warm front is expected to make gradual northward progress during the day. Ample low-level moisture and strong buoyancy south of the warm front suggests surface-based supercells capable of all severe hazards, including tornadoes, are possible. However, the overall evolution of this convective cluster still remains a bit uncertain, with some guidance keeping it well north of the warm front. This uncertainty precludes higher probabilities in this outlook. Farther west, late afternoon thunderstorm development appears possible along the lee trough arcing from southeast MT south into far eastern CO/western KS. Highest probabilities for surface-based, late afternoon/early evening storms appears to be across the central High Plains. Any storms that do form could produce hail initially, before quickly becoming more outflow dominant. There is some potential storms develop close enough to one another for upscale growth, with the resulting convective line progressing east-northeastward across southern NE. Thunderstorm development also appears probable across southeast MT amid moisture upslope flow and strengthening large-scale ascent ahead of the approaching shortwave trough. These storms will likely be elevated, with hail as the primary hazard, but a few strong gusts could still reach the surface. Isolated storms are possible farther south across the southern High Plains, but warmer temperatures aloft and displacement south of the better large-scale ascent should keep coverage isolated. High-based character to any storms that do develop could promote damaging gusts. The low-level jet is expected to strengthen during the evening, likely increasing to near 60 kt from the central Plains into the Upper Midwest. Associated warm-air advection will likely result in thunderstorm development north of the warm front across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Enough vertical shear and elevated buoyancy is in place for severe storms, with large hail as the primary hazards. This activity is currently expected to stay north of the warm front, but this front is forecast to move northward through much of MN by early Tuesday. As a result, these is some chance a storms may trend towards becoming surface-based early Tuesday morning if they develop far enough south. ..Mosier.. 06/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible Monday over much of the northern Plains toward the upper Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Upper pattern early Monday morning is forecast to feature expansive ridging centered over the Carolinas that covers much of the eastern CONUS and a cyclone over the Pacific Northwest with associated troughing over the much of the western CONUS. Southwesterly flow aloft will persist across the northern and central Plains between these two features, with some strengthening of this flow anticipated as the western CONUS cyclone progresses eastward across the northern Rockies and northern High Plains, and the ridging over the eastern CONUS remains in place. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing from the mid MO Valley into the Upper Midwest, to the north of a warm front expected to extend from a surface low over the southwest NE/northwest KS vicinity northeastward to another low near the WI/MI border. These showers and thunderstorms are expected to gradually shift northeastward throughout the day, remaining mostly north of the warm front. There is some chance that this activity restrengthens during the late afternoon/early evening over east-central MN and central/northern WI, where the warm front is expected to make gradual northward progress during the day. Ample low-level moisture and strong buoyancy south of the warm front suggests surface-based supercells capable of all severe hazards, including tornadoes, are possible. However, the overall evolution of this convective cluster still remains a bit uncertain, with some guidance keeping it well north of the warm front. This uncertainty precludes higher probabilities in this outlook. Farther west, late afternoon thunderstorm development appears possible along the lee trough arcing from southeast MT south into far eastern CO/western KS. Highest probabilities for surface-based, late afternoon/early evening storms appears to be across the central High Plains. Any storms that do form could produce hail initially, before quickly becoming more outflow dominant. There is some potential storms develop close enough to one another for upscale growth, with the resulting convective line progressing east-northeastward across southern NE. Thunderstorm development also appears probable across southeast MT amid moisture upslope flow and strengthening large-scale ascent ahead of the approaching shortwave trough. These storms will likely be elevated, with hail as the primary hazard, but a few strong gusts could still reach the surface. Isolated storms are possible farther south across the southern High Plains, but warmer temperatures aloft and displacement south of the better large-scale ascent should keep coverage isolated. High-based character to any storms that do develop could promote damaging gusts. The low-level jet is expected to strengthen during the evening, likely increasing to near 60 kt from the central Plains into the Upper Midwest. Associated warm-air advection will likely result in thunderstorm development north of the warm front across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Enough vertical shear and elevated buoyancy is in place for severe storms, with large hail as the primary hazards. This activity is currently expected to stay north of the warm front, but this front is forecast to move northward through much of MN by early Tuesday. As a result, these is some chance a storms may trend towards becoming surface-based early Tuesday morning if they develop far enough south. ..Mosier.. 06/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible Monday over much of the northern Plains toward the upper Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Upper pattern early Monday morning is forecast to feature expansive ridging centered over the Carolinas that covers much of the eastern CONUS and a cyclone over the Pacific Northwest with associated troughing over the much of the western CONUS. Southwesterly flow aloft will persist across the northern and central Plains between these two features, with some strengthening of this flow anticipated as the western CONUS cyclone progresses eastward across the northern Rockies and northern High Plains, and the ridging over the eastern CONUS remains in place. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing from the mid MO Valley into the Upper Midwest, to the north of a warm front expected to extend from a surface low over the southwest NE/northwest KS vicinity northeastward to another low near the WI/MI border. These showers and thunderstorms are expected to gradually shift northeastward throughout the day, remaining mostly north of the warm front. There is some chance that this activity restrengthens during the late afternoon/early evening over east-central MN and central/northern WI, where the warm front is expected to make gradual northward progress during the day. Ample low-level moisture and strong buoyancy south of the warm front suggests surface-based supercells capable of all severe hazards, including tornadoes, are possible. However, the overall evolution of this convective cluster still remains a bit uncertain, with some guidance keeping it well north of the warm front. This uncertainty precludes higher probabilities in this outlook. Farther west, late afternoon thunderstorm development appears possible along the lee trough arcing from southeast MT south into far eastern CO/western KS. Highest probabilities for surface-based, late afternoon/early evening storms appears to be across the central High Plains. Any storms that do form could produce hail initially, before quickly becoming more outflow dominant. There is some potential storms develop close enough to one another for upscale growth, with the resulting convective line progressing east-northeastward across southern NE. Thunderstorm development also appears probable across southeast MT amid moisture upslope flow and strengthening large-scale ascent ahead of the approaching shortwave trough. These storms will likely be elevated, with hail as the primary hazard, but a few strong gusts could still reach the surface. Isolated storms are possible farther south across the southern High Plains, but warmer temperatures aloft and displacement south of the better large-scale ascent should keep coverage isolated. High-based character to any storms that do develop could promote damaging gusts. The low-level jet is expected to strengthen during the evening, likely increasing to near 60 kt from the central Plains into the Upper Midwest. Associated warm-air advection will likely result in thunderstorm development north of the warm front across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Enough vertical shear and elevated buoyancy is in place for severe storms, with large hail as the primary hazards. This activity is currently expected to stay north of the warm front, but this front is forecast to move northward through much of MN by early Tuesday. As a result, these is some chance a storms may trend towards becoming surface-based early Tuesday morning if they develop far enough south. ..Mosier.. 06/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible Monday over much of the northern Plains toward the upper Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Upper pattern early Monday morning is forecast to feature expansive ridging centered over the Carolinas that covers much of the eastern CONUS and a cyclone over the Pacific Northwest with associated troughing over the much of the western CONUS. Southwesterly flow aloft will persist across the northern and central Plains between these two features, with some strengthening of this flow anticipated as the western CONUS cyclone progresses eastward across the northern Rockies and northern High Plains, and the ridging over the eastern CONUS remains in place. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing from the mid MO Valley into the Upper Midwest, to the north of a warm front expected to extend from a surface low over the southwest NE/northwest KS vicinity northeastward to another low near the WI/MI border. These showers and thunderstorms are expected to gradually shift northeastward throughout the day, remaining mostly north of the warm front. There is some chance that this activity restrengthens during the late afternoon/early evening over east-central MN and central/northern WI, where the warm front is expected to make gradual northward progress during the day. Ample low-level moisture and strong buoyancy south of the warm front suggests surface-based supercells capable of all severe hazards, including tornadoes, are possible. However, the overall evolution of this convective cluster still remains a bit uncertain, with some guidance keeping it well north of the warm front. This uncertainty precludes higher probabilities in this outlook. Farther west, late afternoon thunderstorm development appears possible along the lee trough arcing from southeast MT south into far eastern CO/western KS. Highest probabilities for surface-based, late afternoon/early evening storms appears to be across the central High Plains. Any storms that do form could produce hail initially, before quickly becoming more outflow dominant. There is some potential storms develop close enough to one another for upscale growth, with the resulting convective line progressing east-northeastward across southern NE. Thunderstorm development also appears probable across southeast MT amid moisture upslope flow and strengthening large-scale ascent ahead of the approaching shortwave trough. These storms will likely be elevated, with hail as the primary hazard, but a few strong gusts could still reach the surface. Isolated storms are possible farther south across the southern High Plains, but warmer temperatures aloft and displacement south of the better large-scale ascent should keep coverage isolated. High-based character to any storms that do develop could promote damaging gusts. The low-level jet is expected to strengthen during the evening, likely increasing to near 60 kt from the central Plains into the Upper Midwest. Associated warm-air advection will likely result in thunderstorm development north of the warm front across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Enough vertical shear and elevated buoyancy is in place for severe storms, with large hail as the primary hazards. This activity is currently expected to stay north of the warm front, but this front is forecast to move northward through much of MN by early Tuesday. As a result, these is some chance a storms may trend towards becoming surface-based early Tuesday morning if they develop far enough south. ..Mosier.. 06/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible Monday over much of the northern Plains toward the upper Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Upper pattern early Monday morning is forecast to feature expansive ridging centered over the Carolinas that covers much of the eastern CONUS and a cyclone over the Pacific Northwest with associated troughing over the much of the western CONUS. Southwesterly flow aloft will persist across the northern and central Plains between these two features, with some strengthening of this flow anticipated as the western CONUS cyclone progresses eastward across the northern Rockies and northern High Plains, and the ridging over the eastern CONUS remains in place. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing from the mid MO Valley into the Upper Midwest, to the north of a warm front expected to extend from a surface low over the southwest NE/northwest KS vicinity northeastward to another low near the WI/MI border. These showers and thunderstorms are expected to gradually shift northeastward throughout the day, remaining mostly north of the warm front. There is some chance that this activity restrengthens during the late afternoon/early evening over east-central MN and central/northern WI, where the warm front is expected to make gradual northward progress during the day. Ample low-level moisture and strong buoyancy south of the warm front suggests surface-based supercells capable of all severe hazards, including tornadoes, are possible. However, the overall evolution of this convective cluster still remains a bit uncertain, with some guidance keeping it well north of the warm front. This uncertainty precludes higher probabilities in this outlook. Farther west, late afternoon thunderstorm development appears possible along the lee trough arcing from southeast MT south into far eastern CO/western KS. Highest probabilities for surface-based, late afternoon/early evening storms appears to be across the central High Plains. Any storms that do form could produce hail initially, before quickly becoming more outflow dominant. There is some potential storms develop close enough to one another for upscale growth, with the resulting convective line progressing east-northeastward across southern NE. Thunderstorm development also appears probable across southeast MT amid moisture upslope flow and strengthening large-scale ascent ahead of the approaching shortwave trough. These storms will likely be elevated, with hail as the primary hazard, but a few strong gusts could still reach the surface. Isolated storms are possible farther south across the southern High Plains, but warmer temperatures aloft and displacement south of the better large-scale ascent should keep coverage isolated. High-based character to any storms that do develop could promote damaging gusts. The low-level jet is expected to strengthen during the evening, likely increasing to near 60 kt from the central Plains into the Upper Midwest. Associated warm-air advection will likely result in thunderstorm development north of the warm front across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Enough vertical shear and elevated buoyancy is in place for severe storms, with large hail as the primary hazards. This activity is currently expected to stay north of the warm front, but this front is forecast to move northward through much of MN by early Tuesday. As a result, these is some chance a storms may trend towards becoming surface-based early Tuesday morning if they develop far enough south. ..Mosier.. 06/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible Monday over much of the northern Plains toward the upper Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Upper pattern early Monday morning is forecast to feature expansive ridging centered over the Carolinas that covers much of the eastern CONUS and a cyclone over the Pacific Northwest with associated troughing over the much of the western CONUS. Southwesterly flow aloft will persist across the northern and central Plains between these two features, with some strengthening of this flow anticipated as the western CONUS cyclone progresses eastward across the northern Rockies and northern High Plains, and the ridging over the eastern CONUS remains in place. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing from the mid MO Valley into the Upper Midwest, to the north of a warm front expected to extend from a surface low over the southwest NE/northwest KS vicinity northeastward to another low near the WI/MI border. These showers and thunderstorms are expected to gradually shift northeastward throughout the day, remaining mostly north of the warm front. There is some chance that this activity restrengthens during the late afternoon/early evening over east-central MN and central/northern WI, where the warm front is expected to make gradual northward progress during the day. Ample low-level moisture and strong buoyancy south of the warm front suggests surface-based supercells capable of all severe hazards, including tornadoes, are possible. However, the overall evolution of this convective cluster still remains a bit uncertain, with some guidance keeping it well north of the warm front. This uncertainty precludes higher probabilities in this outlook. Farther west, late afternoon thunderstorm development appears possible along the lee trough arcing from southeast MT south into far eastern CO/western KS. Highest probabilities for surface-based, late afternoon/early evening storms appears to be across the central High Plains. Any storms that do form could produce hail initially, before quickly becoming more outflow dominant. There is some potential storms develop close enough to one another for upscale growth, with the resulting convective line progressing east-northeastward across southern NE. Thunderstorm development also appears probable across southeast MT amid moisture upslope flow and strengthening large-scale ascent ahead of the approaching shortwave trough. These storms will likely be elevated, with hail as the primary hazard, but a few strong gusts could still reach the surface. Isolated storms are possible farther south across the southern High Plains, but warmer temperatures aloft and displacement south of the better large-scale ascent should keep coverage isolated. High-based character to any storms that do develop could promote damaging gusts. The low-level jet is expected to strengthen during the evening, likely increasing to near 60 kt from the central Plains into the Upper Midwest. Associated warm-air advection will likely result in thunderstorm development north of the warm front across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Enough vertical shear and elevated buoyancy is in place for severe storms, with large hail as the primary hazards. This activity is currently expected to stay north of the warm front, but this front is forecast to move northward through much of MN by early Tuesday. As a result, these is some chance a storms may trend towards becoming surface-based early Tuesday morning if they develop far enough south. ..Mosier.. 06/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible Monday over much of the northern Plains toward the upper Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Upper pattern early Monday morning is forecast to feature expansive ridging centered over the Carolinas that covers much of the eastern CONUS and a cyclone over the Pacific Northwest with associated troughing over the much of the western CONUS. Southwesterly flow aloft will persist across the northern and central Plains between these two features, with some strengthening of this flow anticipated as the western CONUS cyclone progresses eastward across the northern Rockies and northern High Plains, and the ridging over the eastern CONUS remains in place. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing from the mid MO Valley into the Upper Midwest, to the north of a warm front expected to extend from a surface low over the southwest NE/northwest KS vicinity northeastward to another low near the WI/MI border. These showers and thunderstorms are expected to gradually shift northeastward throughout the day, remaining mostly north of the warm front. There is some chance that this activity restrengthens during the late afternoon/early evening over east-central MN and central/northern WI, where the warm front is expected to make gradual northward progress during the day. Ample low-level moisture and strong buoyancy south of the warm front suggests surface-based supercells capable of all severe hazards, including tornadoes, are possible. However, the overall evolution of this convective cluster still remains a bit uncertain, with some guidance keeping it well north of the warm front. This uncertainty precludes higher probabilities in this outlook. Farther west, late afternoon thunderstorm development appears possible along the lee trough arcing from southeast MT south into far eastern CO/western KS. Highest probabilities for surface-based, late afternoon/early evening storms appears to be across the central High Plains. Any storms that do form could produce hail initially, before quickly becoming more outflow dominant. There is some potential storms develop close enough to one another for upscale growth, with the resulting convective line progressing east-northeastward across southern NE. Thunderstorm development also appears probable across southeast MT amid moisture upslope flow and strengthening large-scale ascent ahead of the approaching shortwave trough. These storms will likely be elevated, with hail as the primary hazard, but a few strong gusts could still reach the surface. Isolated storms are possible farther south across the southern High Plains, but warmer temperatures aloft and displacement south of the better large-scale ascent should keep coverage isolated. High-based character to any storms that do develop could promote damaging gusts. The low-level jet is expected to strengthen during the evening, likely increasing to near 60 kt from the central Plains into the Upper Midwest. Associated warm-air advection will likely result in thunderstorm development north of the warm front across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Enough vertical shear and elevated buoyancy is in place for severe storms, with large hail as the primary hazards. This activity is currently expected to stay north of the warm front, but this front is forecast to move northward through much of MN by early Tuesday. As a result, these is some chance a storms may trend towards becoming surface-based early Tuesday morning if they develop far enough south. ..Mosier.. 06/16/2024 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 161739
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sun Jun 16 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore Central America:
Satellite data indicate that a small area of low pressure located
just offshore and to the south of the Guatemala/Mexico border has
become a little better defined. Some additional slight development
is possible before the system moves inland this evening.
Regardless of development, several days of heavy rainfall are
expected across portions of southern Mexico and Central America.
These rains are likely to cause life-threatening flooding and flash
flooding.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Valid 161700Z - 171200Z CORRECTED FOR HEADLINE ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN UTAH...NORTHERN ARIZONA...AND FAR SOUTHEAST NEVADA... An Elevated risk area has been added for portions of the southern Sierra Nevada and western Transverse Ranges in southern California. RH is somewhat marginal for the area, with a minimum of 15-25% expected. However, strong winds (40-50 mph gusts with higher gusts in mountain gaps), rapid drying of fuels, poor overnight RH recovery, and observed rapid growth of the Post fire indicate the threat for additional fire activity in the area. Otherwise, see the previous discussion for further details. ..Supinie.. 06/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024/ ...Synopsis... A deepening western trough will bring an increase in southwesterly flow across much of the desert Southwest this afternoon. Fuels in this region have seen significant drying after several days of warm and dry conditions. Guidance indicates fuels in this region are critically dry, with recent ERCs data indicating 90th percentile for dryness across much of northern and central Arizona. This is further supported by active recent fire activity in this region. Relative humidity reductions to 5-10 percent will overlap sustained winds 15-20 mph across central/northern Arizona, southern Utah, and far southeastern Nevada where a Critical delineation was maintained with this outlook. Outside of this region, a more broad area of Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible across much of central/southern Utah into southern Arizona, where there is less confidence is sustained Critical wind speeds. Elevated conditions may also extend into portions of western Nevada in the lee of the Sierras. In this region, afternoon relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent will overlap sustained winds 10-15 mph (locally higher) amid modestly receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Valid 161700Z - 171200Z CORRECTED FOR HEADLINE ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN UTAH...NORTHERN ARIZONA...AND FAR SOUTHEAST NEVADA... An Elevated risk area has been added for portions of the southern Sierra Nevada and western Transverse Ranges in southern California. RH is somewhat marginal for the area, with a minimum of 15-25% expected. However, strong winds (40-50 mph gusts with higher gusts in mountain gaps), rapid drying of fuels, poor overnight RH recovery, and observed rapid growth of the Post fire indicate the threat for additional fire activity in the area. Otherwise, see the previous discussion for further details. ..Supinie.. 06/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024/ ...Synopsis... A deepening western trough will bring an increase in southwesterly flow across much of the desert Southwest this afternoon. Fuels in this region have seen significant drying after several days of warm and dry conditions. Guidance indicates fuels in this region are critically dry, with recent ERCs data indicating 90th percentile for dryness across much of northern and central Arizona. This is further supported by active recent fire activity in this region. Relative humidity reductions to 5-10 percent will overlap sustained winds 15-20 mph across central/northern Arizona, southern Utah, and far southeastern Nevada where a Critical delineation was maintained with this outlook. Outside of this region, a more broad area of Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible across much of central/southern Utah into southern Arizona, where there is less confidence is sustained Critical wind speeds. Elevated conditions may also extend into portions of western Nevada in the lee of the Sierras. In this region, afternoon relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent will overlap sustained winds 10-15 mph (locally higher) amid modestly receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more