Aggregator

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0501 PM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z The subtropical ridge will remain entrenched over much of the southern half of CONUS with a modest belt of westerly flow across the northern half of CONUS through the weekend into early next week. Extended-range global guidance has a signal for convective precipitation with monsoon moisture on D3/Thursday and D4/Friday across portions of the Great Basin. This precipitation would occur in a region with precipitable water values between 0.5-0.75 inches, which would present a risk for dry lightning. Fuels in the region are receptive to fire spread, pending any wetting rains from previous day's convection. Therefore, the 10% Dry Thunder area is maintained for D3. However, the risk on D4 may be more marginal, so have held off on introducing a 10% Dry Thunder area on D4 for now. Otherwise, despite low RH, winds through D4 look to be a bit too marginal to have confidence in introducing 40% highlights at this time. A weak mid-level shortwave trough traversing the northwestern CONUS on D5/Saturday may provide a focus for a corridor of stronger surface winds across portions of southern Idaho and northeastern Nevada. Since this is colocated with stronger winds and at least modestly receptive fuels, a 40% area has been maintained in this outlook in this region. Additional days with critical fire conditions are possible later in the week across portions of the Great Basin, however confidence is too low to highlight specific areas right now. ..Supinie.. 08/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0501 PM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z The subtropical ridge will remain entrenched over much of the southern half of CONUS with a modest belt of westerly flow across the northern half of CONUS through the weekend into early next week. Extended-range global guidance has a signal for convective precipitation with monsoon moisture on D3/Thursday and D4/Friday across portions of the Great Basin. This precipitation would occur in a region with precipitable water values between 0.5-0.75 inches, which would present a risk for dry lightning. Fuels in the region are receptive to fire spread, pending any wetting rains from previous day's convection. Therefore, the 10% Dry Thunder area is maintained for D3. However, the risk on D4 may be more marginal, so have held off on introducing a 10% Dry Thunder area on D4 for now. Otherwise, despite low RH, winds through D4 look to be a bit too marginal to have confidence in introducing 40% highlights at this time. A weak mid-level shortwave trough traversing the northwestern CONUS on D5/Saturday may provide a focus for a corridor of stronger surface winds across portions of southern Idaho and northeastern Nevada. Since this is colocated with stronger winds and at least modestly receptive fuels, a 40% area has been maintained in this outlook in this region. Additional days with critical fire conditions are possible later in the week across portions of the Great Basin, however confidence is too low to highlight specific areas right now. ..Supinie.. 08/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0501 PM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z The subtropical ridge will remain entrenched over much of the southern half of CONUS with a modest belt of westerly flow across the northern half of CONUS through the weekend into early next week. Extended-range global guidance has a signal for convective precipitation with monsoon moisture on D3/Thursday and D4/Friday across portions of the Great Basin. This precipitation would occur in a region with precipitable water values between 0.5-0.75 inches, which would present a risk for dry lightning. Fuels in the region are receptive to fire spread, pending any wetting rains from previous day's convection. Therefore, the 10% Dry Thunder area is maintained for D3. However, the risk on D4 may be more marginal, so have held off on introducing a 10% Dry Thunder area on D4 for now. Otherwise, despite low RH, winds through D4 look to be a bit too marginal to have confidence in introducing 40% highlights at this time. A weak mid-level shortwave trough traversing the northwestern CONUS on D5/Saturday may provide a focus for a corridor of stronger surface winds across portions of southern Idaho and northeastern Nevada. Since this is colocated with stronger winds and at least modestly receptive fuels, a 40% area has been maintained in this outlook in this region. Additional days with critical fire conditions are possible later in the week across portions of the Great Basin, however confidence is too low to highlight specific areas right now. ..Supinie.. 08/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0501 PM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z The subtropical ridge will remain entrenched over much of the southern half of CONUS with a modest belt of westerly flow across the northern half of CONUS through the weekend into early next week. Extended-range global guidance has a signal for convective precipitation with monsoon moisture on D3/Thursday and D4/Friday across portions of the Great Basin. This precipitation would occur in a region with precipitable water values between 0.5-0.75 inches, which would present a risk for dry lightning. Fuels in the region are receptive to fire spread, pending any wetting rains from previous day's convection. Therefore, the 10% Dry Thunder area is maintained for D3. However, the risk on D4 may be more marginal, so have held off on introducing a 10% Dry Thunder area on D4 for now. Otherwise, despite low RH, winds through D4 look to be a bit too marginal to have confidence in introducing 40% highlights at this time. A weak mid-level shortwave trough traversing the northwestern CONUS on D5/Saturday may provide a focus for a corridor of stronger surface winds across portions of southern Idaho and northeastern Nevada. Since this is colocated with stronger winds and at least modestly receptive fuels, a 40% area has been maintained in this outlook in this region. Additional days with critical fire conditions are possible later in the week across portions of the Great Basin, however confidence is too low to highlight specific areas right now. ..Supinie.. 08/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0607 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 607 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..08/06/24 ATTN...WFO...ILM...MHX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 607 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC017-019-031-047-129-133-141-062240- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLADEN BRUNSWICK CARTERET COLUMBUS NEW HANOVER ONSLOW PENDER SCC041-043-051-067-089-062240- SC . SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FLORENCE GEORGETOWN HORRY MARION WILLIAMSBURG AMZ158-250-252-254-256-062240- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE S OF CAPE LOOKOUT NC TO SURF CITY NC OUT TO 20 NM Read more

WW 0605 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 605 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..08/06/24 ATTN...WFO...CLE...PBZ...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 605 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OHC005-007-013-019-029-031-033-035-043-055-059-063-067-075-077- 081-083-085-093-099-101-103-117-133-139-151-153-155-157-169-175- 062240- OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ASHLAND ASHTABULA BELMONT CARROLL COLUMBIANA COSHOCTON CRAWFORD CUYAHOGA ERIE GEAUGA GUERNSEY HANCOCK HARRISON HOLMES HURON JEFFERSON KNOX LAKE LORAIN MAHONING MARION MEDINA MORROW PORTAGE RICHLAND STARK SUMMIT TRUMBULL TUSCARAWAS WAYNE WYANDOT PAC001-003-005-007-009-013-019-021-027-031-033-035-037-039-041- 043-051-053-055-057-059-061-063-065-067-071-073-075-085-087-093- 097-099-107-109-111-119-121-125-129-133-062240- PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0606 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 606 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..08/06/24 ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...BGM... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 606 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NJC003-005-007-013-015-017-019-021-023-025-027-029-031-035-037- 039-041-062240- NJ . NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BERGEN BURLINGTON CAMDEN ESSEX GLOUCESTER HUDSON HUNTERDON MERCER MIDDLESEX MONMOUTH MORRIS OCEAN PASSAIC SOMERSET SUSSEX UNION WARREN NYC071-087-062240- NY . NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ORANGE ROCKLAND PAC011-017-025-029-045-069-077-079-089-091-095-101-103-127-131- 062240- PA Read more

MD 1848 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 605...606... FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN OHIO AND MUCH OF PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW JERSEY
Mesoscale Discussion 1848 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 PM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Areas affected...portions of eastern Ohio and much of Pennsylvania and New Jersey Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 605...606... Valid 062029Z - 062130Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 605, 606 continues. SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Severe Thunderstorm Watches 605-606. Damaging gusts should remain the primary threat, though a couple instances of large hail are possible and a tornado still cannot be ruled out. DISCUSSION...At least three linear convective complexes have organized across northern OH into PA and NJ over the last few hours, with the north OH and central PA complexes having a history of producing strong, damaging gusts. A radar-indicated tornado also occurred with a QLCS circulation just south of Cleveland, OH. The western lines of storms are progressive, with the central PA line of storms having the most residence time within an ambient unstable airmass characterized by 85-90 F surface temperatures and up to 2000 J/kg MLCAPE. However, the northern OH complex is poised to overspread a convectively overturned airmass over the next few hours, which may dampen the severe threat to a degree. In the meantime (i.e. next couple of hours), an additional QLCS tornado may still occur given the presence of mesovortices established in the leading-line of convection. Storms in southeast PA into NJ are not as progressive, and they have been overturning the airmass in the region, which may limit the severe threat with the central PA storms as they approach this worked over airmass. ..Squitieri.. 08/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...PBZ...CLE...ILN... LAT...LON 41448295 41878061 41477492 40527374 39927391 39567532 39757871 40038122 40248233 40678325 41448295 Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 06 Aug 2024 20:54:43 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 06 Aug 2024 21:29:17 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 06 Aug 2024 20:54:23 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 06 Aug 2024 21:35:07 GMT

Issued at 200 PM PDT Tue Aug 06 2024 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 062053 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Emilia Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052024 200 PM PDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Satellite imagery shows curved banding that has become slightly more impressive over the past 6 h, and there are signs that the RMW may have contracted a bit. Emilia has a much healthier appearance on satellite imagery compared to Fabio, which is currently centered about 320 miles to the north-northeast of Emilia. The latest subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB range from 55-65 kt, and the latest reliable objective intensity estimates from CIMSS range from 48 to 59 kt. The intensity is held at 55 kt for this advisory, but this estimate could be slightly conservative. Emilia is moving slowly northwestward, or 325/3-kt. The northerly flow to the west of Fabio is keeping Emilia's forward speed slow for now. However, as Fabio moves farther west over the next day or so, Emilia will accelerate to the northwest. The confidence in the track forecast is below average due to the complex interaction with Fabio. The latest forecast was adjusted slightly to the right and slightly slower than the previous official forecast for about the first 36 h, closer to the latest model consensus. Emilia is forecast to absorb Fabio into its circulation by Thursday, but there are some timing differences among the various models. The timing and location of the merger is a blend of the 12Z GFS and 12Z ECMWF model solutions. After the merger, Emilia will turn toward the west-northwest as it is steered more by the lower-level flow. The track forecast beyond 48 h is very close to the previous NHC forecast. The interaction with Fabio makes the intensity forecast challenging. The NHC forecast continues to favor the solution in which Emilia absorbs Fabio in 36 to 48 h. Emilia has been able to fight off moderate northeasterly vertical wind shear so far, and it seems reasonable that the cyclone could intensify a bit more over the next 24 h as it remains over warm ocean waters. Emilia is forecast to cross the 26C isotherm by 36 h, and steady weakening is expected after that time. Emilia should weaken below tropical storm strength on Friday and become a remnant low on Saturday. The latest intensity forecast is near the middle of the intensity guidance and is similar to the previous forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/2100Z 14.4N 115.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 07/0600Z 15.5N 116.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 07/1800Z 17.6N 117.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 08/0600Z 19.5N 119.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 08/1800Z 20.9N 122.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 09/0600Z 21.6N 125.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 09/1800Z 22.2N 127.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 10/1800Z 23.1N 132.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 11/1800Z 24.1N 136.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Hagen/Hogsett

Issued at 200 PM MST Tue Aug 06 2024 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 062053 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Fabio Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062024 200 PM MST Tue Aug 06 2024 Fabio is showing indications of slight weakening this afternoon, possibly associated with its continued close proximity to Tropical Storm Emilia. Cloud-top temperatures have warmed, and visible satellite imagery indicates that the center has become partially exposed on the west side of the storm. Subjective and objective intensity estimates from TAFB and UW-CIMSS, respectively, also suggest that Fabio has weakened slightly. Based on these estimates and recent satellite trends, the initial intensity estimate is decreased to 50 kt for this advisory. Fabio's initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward or 300/18 kt. The uncertainty in the track forecast remains higher than usual, due to the ongoing interaction between Fabio and Emilia. The current forecast favors that Emilia will absorb Fabio, as shown by the GFS and the ECMWF. The forecast timing of Fabio's demise is in between the GFS and ECMWF solutions. The GFS holds onto Fabio about a day longer than the ECMWF solution. The current forecast is slightly to the north of the prior forecast and similar to the best-performing consensus aids TVCN and HCCA. It appears that the upper-level outflow from Emilia is impacting Fabio, and this should preclude significant strengthening. None of the better performing intensity guidance aids indicate significant strengthening, and the new NHC forecast now shows Fabio weakening steadily before merging with Emilia. This solution is close to the IVCN and HCCA consensus models, as well as the prior forecast. However, given the track forecast uncertainty, a change in the forecast philosophy is not out of the question for subsequent advisories. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/2100Z 19.2N 113.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 07/0600Z 20.2N 116.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 07/1800Z 21.0N 119.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 08/0600Z 20.9N 122.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 08/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Hogsett

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE AUG 06 2024 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 062052 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM FABIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062024 2100 UTC TUE AUG 06 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FABIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 115W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 20N 115W 50 18 X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) 20N 120W 34 X 13(13) 10(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) $$ FORECASTER HOGSETT

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE AUG 06 2024 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 062052 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM FABIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062024 2100 UTC TUE AUG 06 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 113.9W AT 06/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 18 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 80SE 30SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 180SE 30SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 113.9W AT 06/2100Z AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 113.1W FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 20.2N 116.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 21.0N 119.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 20.9N 122.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.2N 113.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0300Z $$ FORECASTER HOGSETT

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE AUG 06 2024 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 062051 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM EMILIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052024 2100 UTC TUE AUG 06 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 2 5( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 15N 115W 34 98 X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) 15N 115W 50 27 1(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) 15N 115W 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 20N 115W 34 1 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 15N 120W 34 2 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 120W 34 X 4( 4) 59(63) 11(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) 17(17) 10(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 6(14) X(14) X(14) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 25N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) $$ FORECASTER HAGEN/HOGSETT

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE AUG 06 2024 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 062051 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM EMILIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052024 2100 UTC TUE AUG 06 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 115.3W AT 06/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 70SE 60SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 110SE 120SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 300SE 150SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 115.3W AT 06/2100Z AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 115.1W FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 15.5N 116.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 60SE 50SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 120SE 100SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 17.6N 117.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 50SE 30SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 100SE 80SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 19.5N 119.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 20.9N 122.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 70SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 21.6N 125.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 22.2N 127.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 23.1N 132.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 24.1N 136.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.4N 115.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0300Z $$ FORECASTER HAGEN/HOGSETT

Issued at 200 PM PDT Tue Aug 06 2024 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 062051 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Emilia Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052024 200 PM PDT Tue Aug 06 2024 ...EMILIA DRIFTING NORTHWESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.4N 115.3W ABOUT 685 MI...1100 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Emilia was located near latitude 14.4 North, longitude 115.3 West. Emilia is moving toward the northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h), and it is forecast to accelerate northwestward through Wednesday. A gradual turn toward the west-northwest is expected on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours, and Emilia could briefly become a hurricane. Weakening is expected to begin by Wednesday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Hagen/Hogsett

...EMILIA DRIFTING NORTHWESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... As of 2:00 PM PDT Tue Aug 6 the center of Emilia was located near 14.4, -115.3 with movement NW at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 992 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

Issued at 200 PM MST Tue Aug 06 2024 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 062051 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Fabio Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062024 200 PM MST Tue Aug 06 2024 ...FABIO WEAKENS SLIGHTLY AND IS FORECAST TO MERGE WITH EMILIA... SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.2N 113.9W ABOUT 625 MI...1010 KM W OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fabio was located near latitude 19.2 North, longitude 113.9 West. Fabio is moving toward the west-northwest near 21 mph (33 km/h) and is expected to turn to the west during the next day or so. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next day or so until Fabio merges with Emilia. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST. $$ Forecaster Hogsett

...FABIO WEAKENS SLIGHTLY AND IS FORECAST TO MERGE WITH EMILIA... As of 2:00 PM MST Tue Aug 6 the center of Fabio was located near 19.2, -113.9 with movement WNW at 21 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.