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WW 0542 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0542 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

499
ABNT20 KNHC 251732
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Jul 25 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Northwestern Gulf:
A trough of low pressure located just off the coast of southwestern
Louisiana continues to produce disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. This system is moving westward, and it has limited
time to develop before it moves inland over southwestern Louisiana
or Texas tonight. Regardless of formation, locally heavy rainfall
is likely over portions of the northwestern Gulf coast during the
next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND THE DAKOTAS AS WELL AS THE MIDWEST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms accompanied by potentially damaging wind gusts are possible Saturday afternoon/evening in parts of the Upper Midwest/Lower Great Lakes into portions of the Mid-Atlantic. Isolated to widely scattered severe storms are also likely across the Northern Rockies, central High Plains, and northern Plains. ...Synopsis... The overall synoptic regime will largely remain in place over the next 48 hours across the country, characterized by a persistent upper ridge over the Southeast with longwave troughing west of the Rockies. A diffuse frontal zone draped from the upper OH Valley into the central Plains this morning should largely remain in place across the upper Midwest/Great Lakes region and will act as a foci for thunderstorm development through the afternoon. To the west, a low-amplitude impulse currently off the coast of southwest CA will propagate into the central Rockies/High Plains around peak heating. This will support isolated to scattered thunderstorm development that may persist into the overnight hours across the northern Plains. ...Eastern North Dakota... Two rounds of severe thunderstorms appear possible across eastern ND and far northwest MN tomorrow afternoon and overnight. A weak surface front emanating out of the southern Canadian prairies will impinge on the northern edge of a plume of 70-75 dewpoints as it moves into northeast ND and far northwest MN. Steep mid-level lapse rates advecting into the region coupled with rich low-level moisture should support 3000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE by late afternoon. 30-40 knot mid-level flow will provide adequate deep-layer wind shear for organized storms, including the potential for a few supercells capable of large hail and severe winds. Increasing capping with southward extent should limit the spatial extent of this threat. Morning guidance hints at the passage of an MCS across the Dakotas overnight as a result of upscale growth of convection over the High Plains. Given the steep lapse rates in place upstream per 12z RAOBS and the passage of weak mid-level wave during the overnight period, this scenario appears plausible. However, deterministic solutions vary regarding the intensity of the potential MCS, and nocturnal cooling coupled with warm 850-700 mb temperatures at the base of the EML cast uncertainty onto how intense surface winds will be. Higher risk probabilities may be needed for either of these scenarios as forecast uncertainty become resolved. ...Northern Rockies into the Northern/Central High Plains... An upper-level impulse currently off the southern CA coast is forecast to phase favorably with peak heating over the northern Rockies/central High Plains. This will promote thunderstorm development within the higher terrain of southern MT and northern WY and along a surface trough draped across the western Plains by late afternoon. Strong daytime heating under a plume of steep mid-level lapse rates and on the western fringe of a low-level moisture plume will result in deeply mixed profiles with around 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Moderate mid-level flow within the CAPE-bearing layer may support adequate deep-layer shear for a supercell or two across MT/northern WY, but weaker shear with southward extent will limit storm organization/longevity. Regardless, thermodynamic profiles will be very favorable for strong to severe downburst winds. ...Midwest to Mid-Atlantic... A weak mid-level impulse/MCV emanating out of the Plains will promote scattered showers and weak thunderstorms across the Midwest at the start of the forecast period. Lingering showers and clouds casts some uncertainty regarding diurnal heating/destabilization, but rich boundary-layer moisture already in place will likely support MLCAPE values upwards of at least 2000 J/kg by late afternoon. Areas along the composite frontal zone that can destabilize will likely see thunderstorm development by mid-afternoon as the MCV propagates east across the Midwest/Great Lakes. Augmented mid-level winds attendant to this feature will support 0-6 km bulk shear values on the order of 20-30 knots, which in conjunction with mean flow along the boundary, should promote a mix of semi-discrete cells and loosely organized clusters capable of damaging to severe winds and perhaps large hail. Further east across southern PA into the Mid-Atlantic, thunderstorm development is anticipated by mid to late afternoon both within the central Appalachians and along a diffuse frontal zone. Despite weak mid-level lapse rates, rich low-level moisture should support widespread MLCAPE values of around 1500 J/kg with minimal capping. Easterly low-level winds under northwesterly mid-level flow will provide sufficient hodograph elongation for organized cells/clusters with an attendant threat for damaging/severe winds. ..Moore.. 07/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND THE DAKOTAS AS WELL AS THE MIDWEST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms accompanied by potentially damaging wind gusts are possible Saturday afternoon/evening in parts of the Upper Midwest/Lower Great Lakes into portions of the Mid-Atlantic. Isolated to widely scattered severe storms are also likely across the Northern Rockies, central High Plains, and northern Plains. ...Synopsis... The overall synoptic regime will largely remain in place over the next 48 hours across the country, characterized by a persistent upper ridge over the Southeast with longwave troughing west of the Rockies. A diffuse frontal zone draped from the upper OH Valley into the central Plains this morning should largely remain in place across the upper Midwest/Great Lakes region and will act as a foci for thunderstorm development through the afternoon. To the west, a low-amplitude impulse currently off the coast of southwest CA will propagate into the central Rockies/High Plains around peak heating. This will support isolated to scattered thunderstorm development that may persist into the overnight hours across the northern Plains. ...Eastern North Dakota... Two rounds of severe thunderstorms appear possible across eastern ND and far northwest MN tomorrow afternoon and overnight. A weak surface front emanating out of the southern Canadian prairies will impinge on the northern edge of a plume of 70-75 dewpoints as it moves into northeast ND and far northwest MN. Steep mid-level lapse rates advecting into the region coupled with rich low-level moisture should support 3000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE by late afternoon. 30-40 knot mid-level flow will provide adequate deep-layer wind shear for organized storms, including the potential for a few supercells capable of large hail and severe winds. Increasing capping with southward extent should limit the spatial extent of this threat. Morning guidance hints at the passage of an MCS across the Dakotas overnight as a result of upscale growth of convection over the High Plains. Given the steep lapse rates in place upstream per 12z RAOBS and the passage of weak mid-level wave during the overnight period, this scenario appears plausible. However, deterministic solutions vary regarding the intensity of the potential MCS, and nocturnal cooling coupled with warm 850-700 mb temperatures at the base of the EML cast uncertainty onto how intense surface winds will be. Higher risk probabilities may be needed for either of these scenarios as forecast uncertainty become resolved. ...Northern Rockies into the Northern/Central High Plains... An upper-level impulse currently off the southern CA coast is forecast to phase favorably with peak heating over the northern Rockies/central High Plains. This will promote thunderstorm development within the higher terrain of southern MT and northern WY and along a surface trough draped across the western Plains by late afternoon. Strong daytime heating under a plume of steep mid-level lapse rates and on the western fringe of a low-level moisture plume will result in deeply mixed profiles with around 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Moderate mid-level flow within the CAPE-bearing layer may support adequate deep-layer shear for a supercell or two across MT/northern WY, but weaker shear with southward extent will limit storm organization/longevity. Regardless, thermodynamic profiles will be very favorable for strong to severe downburst winds. ...Midwest to Mid-Atlantic... A weak mid-level impulse/MCV emanating out of the Plains will promote scattered showers and weak thunderstorms across the Midwest at the start of the forecast period. Lingering showers and clouds casts some uncertainty regarding diurnal heating/destabilization, but rich boundary-layer moisture already in place will likely support MLCAPE values upwards of at least 2000 J/kg by late afternoon. Areas along the composite frontal zone that can destabilize will likely see thunderstorm development by mid-afternoon as the MCV propagates east across the Midwest/Great Lakes. Augmented mid-level winds attendant to this feature will support 0-6 km bulk shear values on the order of 20-30 knots, which in conjunction with mean flow along the boundary, should promote a mix of semi-discrete cells and loosely organized clusters capable of damaging to severe winds and perhaps large hail. Further east across southern PA into the Mid-Atlantic, thunderstorm development is anticipated by mid to late afternoon both within the central Appalachians and along a diffuse frontal zone. Despite weak mid-level lapse rates, rich low-level moisture should support widespread MLCAPE values of around 1500 J/kg with minimal capping. Easterly low-level winds under northwesterly mid-level flow will provide sufficient hodograph elongation for organized cells/clusters with an attendant threat for damaging/severe winds. ..Moore.. 07/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND THE DAKOTAS AS WELL AS THE MIDWEST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms accompanied by potentially damaging wind gusts are possible Saturday afternoon/evening in parts of the Upper Midwest/Lower Great Lakes into portions of the Mid-Atlantic. Isolated to widely scattered severe storms are also likely across the Northern Rockies, central High Plains, and northern Plains. ...Synopsis... The overall synoptic regime will largely remain in place over the next 48 hours across the country, characterized by a persistent upper ridge over the Southeast with longwave troughing west of the Rockies. A diffuse frontal zone draped from the upper OH Valley into the central Plains this morning should largely remain in place across the upper Midwest/Great Lakes region and will act as a foci for thunderstorm development through the afternoon. To the west, a low-amplitude impulse currently off the coast of southwest CA will propagate into the central Rockies/High Plains around peak heating. This will support isolated to scattered thunderstorm development that may persist into the overnight hours across the northern Plains. ...Eastern North Dakota... Two rounds of severe thunderstorms appear possible across eastern ND and far northwest MN tomorrow afternoon and overnight. A weak surface front emanating out of the southern Canadian prairies will impinge on the northern edge of a plume of 70-75 dewpoints as it moves into northeast ND and far northwest MN. Steep mid-level lapse rates advecting into the region coupled with rich low-level moisture should support 3000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE by late afternoon. 30-40 knot mid-level flow will provide adequate deep-layer wind shear for organized storms, including the potential for a few supercells capable of large hail and severe winds. Increasing capping with southward extent should limit the spatial extent of this threat. Morning guidance hints at the passage of an MCS across the Dakotas overnight as a result of upscale growth of convection over the High Plains. Given the steep lapse rates in place upstream per 12z RAOBS and the passage of weak mid-level wave during the overnight period, this scenario appears plausible. However, deterministic solutions vary regarding the intensity of the potential MCS, and nocturnal cooling coupled with warm 850-700 mb temperatures at the base of the EML cast uncertainty onto how intense surface winds will be. Higher risk probabilities may be needed for either of these scenarios as forecast uncertainty become resolved. ...Northern Rockies into the Northern/Central High Plains... An upper-level impulse currently off the southern CA coast is forecast to phase favorably with peak heating over the northern Rockies/central High Plains. This will promote thunderstorm development within the higher terrain of southern MT and northern WY and along a surface trough draped across the western Plains by late afternoon. Strong daytime heating under a plume of steep mid-level lapse rates and on the western fringe of a low-level moisture plume will result in deeply mixed profiles with around 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Moderate mid-level flow within the CAPE-bearing layer may support adequate deep-layer shear for a supercell or two across MT/northern WY, but weaker shear with southward extent will limit storm organization/longevity. Regardless, thermodynamic profiles will be very favorable for strong to severe downburst winds. ...Midwest to Mid-Atlantic... A weak mid-level impulse/MCV emanating out of the Plains will promote scattered showers and weak thunderstorms across the Midwest at the start of the forecast period. Lingering showers and clouds casts some uncertainty regarding diurnal heating/destabilization, but rich boundary-layer moisture already in place will likely support MLCAPE values upwards of at least 2000 J/kg by late afternoon. Areas along the composite frontal zone that can destabilize will likely see thunderstorm development by mid-afternoon as the MCV propagates east across the Midwest/Great Lakes. Augmented mid-level winds attendant to this feature will support 0-6 km bulk shear values on the order of 20-30 knots, which in conjunction with mean flow along the boundary, should promote a mix of semi-discrete cells and loosely organized clusters capable of damaging to severe winds and perhaps large hail. Further east across southern PA into the Mid-Atlantic, thunderstorm development is anticipated by mid to late afternoon both within the central Appalachians and along a diffuse frontal zone. Despite weak mid-level lapse rates, rich low-level moisture should support widespread MLCAPE values of around 1500 J/kg with minimal capping. Easterly low-level winds under northwesterly mid-level flow will provide sufficient hodograph elongation for organized cells/clusters with an attendant threat for damaging/severe winds. ..Moore.. 07/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND THE DAKOTAS AS WELL AS THE MIDWEST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms accompanied by potentially damaging wind gusts are possible Saturday afternoon/evening in parts of the Upper Midwest/Lower Great Lakes into portions of the Mid-Atlantic. Isolated to widely scattered severe storms are also likely across the Northern Rockies, central High Plains, and northern Plains. ...Synopsis... The overall synoptic regime will largely remain in place over the next 48 hours across the country, characterized by a persistent upper ridge over the Southeast with longwave troughing west of the Rockies. A diffuse frontal zone draped from the upper OH Valley into the central Plains this morning should largely remain in place across the upper Midwest/Great Lakes region and will act as a foci for thunderstorm development through the afternoon. To the west, a low-amplitude impulse currently off the coast of southwest CA will propagate into the central Rockies/High Plains around peak heating. This will support isolated to scattered thunderstorm development that may persist into the overnight hours across the northern Plains. ...Eastern North Dakota... Two rounds of severe thunderstorms appear possible across eastern ND and far northwest MN tomorrow afternoon and overnight. A weak surface front emanating out of the southern Canadian prairies will impinge on the northern edge of a plume of 70-75 dewpoints as it moves into northeast ND and far northwest MN. Steep mid-level lapse rates advecting into the region coupled with rich low-level moisture should support 3000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE by late afternoon. 30-40 knot mid-level flow will provide adequate deep-layer wind shear for organized storms, including the potential for a few supercells capable of large hail and severe winds. Increasing capping with southward extent should limit the spatial extent of this threat. Morning guidance hints at the passage of an MCS across the Dakotas overnight as a result of upscale growth of convection over the High Plains. Given the steep lapse rates in place upstream per 12z RAOBS and the passage of weak mid-level wave during the overnight period, this scenario appears plausible. However, deterministic solutions vary regarding the intensity of the potential MCS, and nocturnal cooling coupled with warm 850-700 mb temperatures at the base of the EML cast uncertainty onto how intense surface winds will be. Higher risk probabilities may be needed for either of these scenarios as forecast uncertainty become resolved. ...Northern Rockies into the Northern/Central High Plains... An upper-level impulse currently off the southern CA coast is forecast to phase favorably with peak heating over the northern Rockies/central High Plains. This will promote thunderstorm development within the higher terrain of southern MT and northern WY and along a surface trough draped across the western Plains by late afternoon. Strong daytime heating under a plume of steep mid-level lapse rates and on the western fringe of a low-level moisture plume will result in deeply mixed profiles with around 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Moderate mid-level flow within the CAPE-bearing layer may support adequate deep-layer shear for a supercell or two across MT/northern WY, but weaker shear with southward extent will limit storm organization/longevity. Regardless, thermodynamic profiles will be very favorable for strong to severe downburst winds. ...Midwest to Mid-Atlantic... A weak mid-level impulse/MCV emanating out of the Plains will promote scattered showers and weak thunderstorms across the Midwest at the start of the forecast period. Lingering showers and clouds casts some uncertainty regarding diurnal heating/destabilization, but rich boundary-layer moisture already in place will likely support MLCAPE values upwards of at least 2000 J/kg by late afternoon. Areas along the composite frontal zone that can destabilize will likely see thunderstorm development by mid-afternoon as the MCV propagates east across the Midwest/Great Lakes. Augmented mid-level winds attendant to this feature will support 0-6 km bulk shear values on the order of 20-30 knots, which in conjunction with mean flow along the boundary, should promote a mix of semi-discrete cells and loosely organized clusters capable of damaging to severe winds and perhaps large hail. Further east across southern PA into the Mid-Atlantic, thunderstorm development is anticipated by mid to late afternoon both within the central Appalachians and along a diffuse frontal zone. Despite weak mid-level lapse rates, rich low-level moisture should support widespread MLCAPE values of around 1500 J/kg with minimal capping. Easterly low-level winds under northwesterly mid-level flow will provide sufficient hodograph elongation for organized cells/clusters with an attendant threat for damaging/severe winds. ..Moore.. 07/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND THE DAKOTAS AS WELL AS THE MIDWEST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms accompanied by potentially damaging wind gusts are possible Saturday afternoon/evening in parts of the Upper Midwest/Lower Great Lakes into portions of the Mid-Atlantic. Isolated to widely scattered severe storms are also likely across the Northern Rockies, central High Plains, and northern Plains. ...Synopsis... The overall synoptic regime will largely remain in place over the next 48 hours across the country, characterized by a persistent upper ridge over the Southeast with longwave troughing west of the Rockies. A diffuse frontal zone draped from the upper OH Valley into the central Plains this morning should largely remain in place across the upper Midwest/Great Lakes region and will act as a foci for thunderstorm development through the afternoon. To the west, a low-amplitude impulse currently off the coast of southwest CA will propagate into the central Rockies/High Plains around peak heating. This will support isolated to scattered thunderstorm development that may persist into the overnight hours across the northern Plains. ...Eastern North Dakota... Two rounds of severe thunderstorms appear possible across eastern ND and far northwest MN tomorrow afternoon and overnight. A weak surface front emanating out of the southern Canadian prairies will impinge on the northern edge of a plume of 70-75 dewpoints as it moves into northeast ND and far northwest MN. Steep mid-level lapse rates advecting into the region coupled with rich low-level moisture should support 3000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE by late afternoon. 30-40 knot mid-level flow will provide adequate deep-layer wind shear for organized storms, including the potential for a few supercells capable of large hail and severe winds. Increasing capping with southward extent should limit the spatial extent of this threat. Morning guidance hints at the passage of an MCS across the Dakotas overnight as a result of upscale growth of convection over the High Plains. Given the steep lapse rates in place upstream per 12z RAOBS and the passage of weak mid-level wave during the overnight period, this scenario appears plausible. However, deterministic solutions vary regarding the intensity of the potential MCS, and nocturnal cooling coupled with warm 850-700 mb temperatures at the base of the EML cast uncertainty onto how intense surface winds will be. Higher risk probabilities may be needed for either of these scenarios as forecast uncertainty become resolved. ...Northern Rockies into the Northern/Central High Plains... An upper-level impulse currently off the southern CA coast is forecast to phase favorably with peak heating over the northern Rockies/central High Plains. This will promote thunderstorm development within the higher terrain of southern MT and northern WY and along a surface trough draped across the western Plains by late afternoon. Strong daytime heating under a plume of steep mid-level lapse rates and on the western fringe of a low-level moisture plume will result in deeply mixed profiles with around 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Moderate mid-level flow within the CAPE-bearing layer may support adequate deep-layer shear for a supercell or two across MT/northern WY, but weaker shear with southward extent will limit storm organization/longevity. Regardless, thermodynamic profiles will be very favorable for strong to severe downburst winds. ...Midwest to Mid-Atlantic... A weak mid-level impulse/MCV emanating out of the Plains will promote scattered showers and weak thunderstorms across the Midwest at the start of the forecast period. Lingering showers and clouds casts some uncertainty regarding diurnal heating/destabilization, but rich boundary-layer moisture already in place will likely support MLCAPE values upwards of at least 2000 J/kg by late afternoon. Areas along the composite frontal zone that can destabilize will likely see thunderstorm development by mid-afternoon as the MCV propagates east across the Midwest/Great Lakes. Augmented mid-level winds attendant to this feature will support 0-6 km bulk shear values on the order of 20-30 knots, which in conjunction with mean flow along the boundary, should promote a mix of semi-discrete cells and loosely organized clusters capable of damaging to severe winds and perhaps large hail. Further east across southern PA into the Mid-Atlantic, thunderstorm development is anticipated by mid to late afternoon both within the central Appalachians and along a diffuse frontal zone. Despite weak mid-level lapse rates, rich low-level moisture should support widespread MLCAPE values of around 1500 J/kg with minimal capping. Easterly low-level winds under northwesterly mid-level flow will provide sufficient hodograph elongation for organized cells/clusters with an attendant threat for damaging/severe winds. ..Moore.. 07/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND THE DAKOTAS AS WELL AS THE MIDWEST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms accompanied by potentially damaging wind gusts are possible Saturday afternoon/evening in parts of the Upper Midwest/Lower Great Lakes into portions of the Mid-Atlantic. Isolated to widely scattered severe storms are also likely across the Northern Rockies, central High Plains, and northern Plains. ...Synopsis... The overall synoptic regime will largely remain in place over the next 48 hours across the country, characterized by a persistent upper ridge over the Southeast with longwave troughing west of the Rockies. A diffuse frontal zone draped from the upper OH Valley into the central Plains this morning should largely remain in place across the upper Midwest/Great Lakes region and will act as a foci for thunderstorm development through the afternoon. To the west, a low-amplitude impulse currently off the coast of southwest CA will propagate into the central Rockies/High Plains around peak heating. This will support isolated to scattered thunderstorm development that may persist into the overnight hours across the northern Plains. ...Eastern North Dakota... Two rounds of severe thunderstorms appear possible across eastern ND and far northwest MN tomorrow afternoon and overnight. A weak surface front emanating out of the southern Canadian prairies will impinge on the northern edge of a plume of 70-75 dewpoints as it moves into northeast ND and far northwest MN. Steep mid-level lapse rates advecting into the region coupled with rich low-level moisture should support 3000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE by late afternoon. 30-40 knot mid-level flow will provide adequate deep-layer wind shear for organized storms, including the potential for a few supercells capable of large hail and severe winds. Increasing capping with southward extent should limit the spatial extent of this threat. Morning guidance hints at the passage of an MCS across the Dakotas overnight as a result of upscale growth of convection over the High Plains. Given the steep lapse rates in place upstream per 12z RAOBS and the passage of weak mid-level wave during the overnight period, this scenario appears plausible. However, deterministic solutions vary regarding the intensity of the potential MCS, and nocturnal cooling coupled with warm 850-700 mb temperatures at the base of the EML cast uncertainty onto how intense surface winds will be. Higher risk probabilities may be needed for either of these scenarios as forecast uncertainty become resolved. ...Northern Rockies into the Northern/Central High Plains... An upper-level impulse currently off the southern CA coast is forecast to phase favorably with peak heating over the northern Rockies/central High Plains. This will promote thunderstorm development within the higher terrain of southern MT and northern WY and along a surface trough draped across the western Plains by late afternoon. Strong daytime heating under a plume of steep mid-level lapse rates and on the western fringe of a low-level moisture plume will result in deeply mixed profiles with around 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Moderate mid-level flow within the CAPE-bearing layer may support adequate deep-layer shear for a supercell or two across MT/northern WY, but weaker shear with southward extent will limit storm organization/longevity. Regardless, thermodynamic profiles will be very favorable for strong to severe downburst winds. ...Midwest to Mid-Atlantic... A weak mid-level impulse/MCV emanating out of the Plains will promote scattered showers and weak thunderstorms across the Midwest at the start of the forecast period. Lingering showers and clouds casts some uncertainty regarding diurnal heating/destabilization, but rich boundary-layer moisture already in place will likely support MLCAPE values upwards of at least 2000 J/kg by late afternoon. Areas along the composite frontal zone that can destabilize will likely see thunderstorm development by mid-afternoon as the MCV propagates east across the Midwest/Great Lakes. Augmented mid-level winds attendant to this feature will support 0-6 km bulk shear values on the order of 20-30 knots, which in conjunction with mean flow along the boundary, should promote a mix of semi-discrete cells and loosely organized clusters capable of damaging to severe winds and perhaps large hail. Further east across southern PA into the Mid-Atlantic, thunderstorm development is anticipated by mid to late afternoon both within the central Appalachians and along a diffuse frontal zone. Despite weak mid-level lapse rates, rich low-level moisture should support widespread MLCAPE values of around 1500 J/kg with minimal capping. Easterly low-level winds under northwesterly mid-level flow will provide sufficient hodograph elongation for organized cells/clusters with an attendant threat for damaging/severe winds. ..Moore.. 07/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND THE DAKOTAS AS WELL AS THE MIDWEST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms accompanied by potentially damaging wind gusts are possible Saturday afternoon/evening in parts of the Upper Midwest/Lower Great Lakes into portions of the Mid-Atlantic. Isolated to widely scattered severe storms are also likely across the Northern Rockies, central High Plains, and northern Plains. ...Synopsis... The overall synoptic regime will largely remain in place over the next 48 hours across the country, characterized by a persistent upper ridge over the Southeast with longwave troughing west of the Rockies. A diffuse frontal zone draped from the upper OH Valley into the central Plains this morning should largely remain in place across the upper Midwest/Great Lakes region and will act as a foci for thunderstorm development through the afternoon. To the west, a low-amplitude impulse currently off the coast of southwest CA will propagate into the central Rockies/High Plains around peak heating. This will support isolated to scattered thunderstorm development that may persist into the overnight hours across the northern Plains. ...Eastern North Dakota... Two rounds of severe thunderstorms appear possible across eastern ND and far northwest MN tomorrow afternoon and overnight. A weak surface front emanating out of the southern Canadian prairies will impinge on the northern edge of a plume of 70-75 dewpoints as it moves into northeast ND and far northwest MN. Steep mid-level lapse rates advecting into the region coupled with rich low-level moisture should support 3000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE by late afternoon. 30-40 knot mid-level flow will provide adequate deep-layer wind shear for organized storms, including the potential for a few supercells capable of large hail and severe winds. Increasing capping with southward extent should limit the spatial extent of this threat. Morning guidance hints at the passage of an MCS across the Dakotas overnight as a result of upscale growth of convection over the High Plains. Given the steep lapse rates in place upstream per 12z RAOBS and the passage of weak mid-level wave during the overnight period, this scenario appears plausible. However, deterministic solutions vary regarding the intensity of the potential MCS, and nocturnal cooling coupled with warm 850-700 mb temperatures at the base of the EML cast uncertainty onto how intense surface winds will be. Higher risk probabilities may be needed for either of these scenarios as forecast uncertainty become resolved. ...Northern Rockies into the Northern/Central High Plains... An upper-level impulse currently off the southern CA coast is forecast to phase favorably with peak heating over the northern Rockies/central High Plains. This will promote thunderstorm development within the higher terrain of southern MT and northern WY and along a surface trough draped across the western Plains by late afternoon. Strong daytime heating under a plume of steep mid-level lapse rates and on the western fringe of a low-level moisture plume will result in deeply mixed profiles with around 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Moderate mid-level flow within the CAPE-bearing layer may support adequate deep-layer shear for a supercell or two across MT/northern WY, but weaker shear with southward extent will limit storm organization/longevity. Regardless, thermodynamic profiles will be very favorable for strong to severe downburst winds. ...Midwest to Mid-Atlantic... A weak mid-level impulse/MCV emanating out of the Plains will promote scattered showers and weak thunderstorms across the Midwest at the start of the forecast period. Lingering showers and clouds casts some uncertainty regarding diurnal heating/destabilization, but rich boundary-layer moisture already in place will likely support MLCAPE values upwards of at least 2000 J/kg by late afternoon. Areas along the composite frontal zone that can destabilize will likely see thunderstorm development by mid-afternoon as the MCV propagates east across the Midwest/Great Lakes. Augmented mid-level winds attendant to this feature will support 0-6 km bulk shear values on the order of 20-30 knots, which in conjunction with mean flow along the boundary, should promote a mix of semi-discrete cells and loosely organized clusters capable of damaging to severe winds and perhaps large hail. Further east across southern PA into the Mid-Atlantic, thunderstorm development is anticipated by mid to late afternoon both within the central Appalachians and along a diffuse frontal zone. Despite weak mid-level lapse rates, rich low-level moisture should support widespread MLCAPE values of around 1500 J/kg with minimal capping. Easterly low-level winds under northwesterly mid-level flow will provide sufficient hodograph elongation for organized cells/clusters with an attendant threat for damaging/severe winds. ..Moore.. 07/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND THE DAKOTAS AS WELL AS THE MIDWEST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms accompanied by potentially damaging wind gusts are possible Saturday afternoon/evening in parts of the Upper Midwest/Lower Great Lakes into portions of the Mid-Atlantic. Isolated to widely scattered severe storms are also likely across the Northern Rockies, central High Plains, and northern Plains. ...Synopsis... The overall synoptic regime will largely remain in place over the next 48 hours across the country, characterized by a persistent upper ridge over the Southeast with longwave troughing west of the Rockies. A diffuse frontal zone draped from the upper OH Valley into the central Plains this morning should largely remain in place across the upper Midwest/Great Lakes region and will act as a foci for thunderstorm development through the afternoon. To the west, a low-amplitude impulse currently off the coast of southwest CA will propagate into the central Rockies/High Plains around peak heating. This will support isolated to scattered thunderstorm development that may persist into the overnight hours across the northern Plains. ...Eastern North Dakota... Two rounds of severe thunderstorms appear possible across eastern ND and far northwest MN tomorrow afternoon and overnight. A weak surface front emanating out of the southern Canadian prairies will impinge on the northern edge of a plume of 70-75 dewpoints as it moves into northeast ND and far northwest MN. Steep mid-level lapse rates advecting into the region coupled with rich low-level moisture should support 3000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE by late afternoon. 30-40 knot mid-level flow will provide adequate deep-layer wind shear for organized storms, including the potential for a few supercells capable of large hail and severe winds. Increasing capping with southward extent should limit the spatial extent of this threat. Morning guidance hints at the passage of an MCS across the Dakotas overnight as a result of upscale growth of convection over the High Plains. Given the steep lapse rates in place upstream per 12z RAOBS and the passage of weak mid-level wave during the overnight period, this scenario appears plausible. However, deterministic solutions vary regarding the intensity of the potential MCS, and nocturnal cooling coupled with warm 850-700 mb temperatures at the base of the EML cast uncertainty onto how intense surface winds will be. Higher risk probabilities may be needed for either of these scenarios as forecast uncertainty become resolved. ...Northern Rockies into the Northern/Central High Plains... An upper-level impulse currently off the southern CA coast is forecast to phase favorably with peak heating over the northern Rockies/central High Plains. This will promote thunderstorm development within the higher terrain of southern MT and northern WY and along a surface trough draped across the western Plains by late afternoon. Strong daytime heating under a plume of steep mid-level lapse rates and on the western fringe of a low-level moisture plume will result in deeply mixed profiles with around 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Moderate mid-level flow within the CAPE-bearing layer may support adequate deep-layer shear for a supercell or two across MT/northern WY, but weaker shear with southward extent will limit storm organization/longevity. Regardless, thermodynamic profiles will be very favorable for strong to severe downburst winds. ...Midwest to Mid-Atlantic... A weak mid-level impulse/MCV emanating out of the Plains will promote scattered showers and weak thunderstorms across the Midwest at the start of the forecast period. Lingering showers and clouds casts some uncertainty regarding diurnal heating/destabilization, but rich boundary-layer moisture already in place will likely support MLCAPE values upwards of at least 2000 J/kg by late afternoon. Areas along the composite frontal zone that can destabilize will likely see thunderstorm development by mid-afternoon as the MCV propagates east across the Midwest/Great Lakes. Augmented mid-level winds attendant to this feature will support 0-6 km bulk shear values on the order of 20-30 knots, which in conjunction with mean flow along the boundary, should promote a mix of semi-discrete cells and loosely organized clusters capable of damaging to severe winds and perhaps large hail. Further east across southern PA into the Mid-Atlantic, thunderstorm development is anticipated by mid to late afternoon both within the central Appalachians and along a diffuse frontal zone. Despite weak mid-level lapse rates, rich low-level moisture should support widespread MLCAPE values of around 1500 J/kg with minimal capping. Easterly low-level winds under northwesterly mid-level flow will provide sufficient hodograph elongation for organized cells/clusters with an attendant threat for damaging/severe winds. ..Moore.. 07/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND THE DAKOTAS AS WELL AS THE MIDWEST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms accompanied by potentially damaging wind gusts are possible Saturday afternoon/evening in parts of the Upper Midwest/Lower Great Lakes into portions of the Mid-Atlantic. Isolated to widely scattered severe storms are also likely across the Northern Rockies, central High Plains, and northern Plains. ...Synopsis... The overall synoptic regime will largely remain in place over the next 48 hours across the country, characterized by a persistent upper ridge over the Southeast with longwave troughing west of the Rockies. A diffuse frontal zone draped from the upper OH Valley into the central Plains this morning should largely remain in place across the upper Midwest/Great Lakes region and will act as a foci for thunderstorm development through the afternoon. To the west, a low-amplitude impulse currently off the coast of southwest CA will propagate into the central Rockies/High Plains around peak heating. This will support isolated to scattered thunderstorm development that may persist into the overnight hours across the northern Plains. ...Eastern North Dakota... Two rounds of severe thunderstorms appear possible across eastern ND and far northwest MN tomorrow afternoon and overnight. A weak surface front emanating out of the southern Canadian prairies will impinge on the northern edge of a plume of 70-75 dewpoints as it moves into northeast ND and far northwest MN. Steep mid-level lapse rates advecting into the region coupled with rich low-level moisture should support 3000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE by late afternoon. 30-40 knot mid-level flow will provide adequate deep-layer wind shear for organized storms, including the potential for a few supercells capable of large hail and severe winds. Increasing capping with southward extent should limit the spatial extent of this threat. Morning guidance hints at the passage of an MCS across the Dakotas overnight as a result of upscale growth of convection over the High Plains. Given the steep lapse rates in place upstream per 12z RAOBS and the passage of weak mid-level wave during the overnight period, this scenario appears plausible. However, deterministic solutions vary regarding the intensity of the potential MCS, and nocturnal cooling coupled with warm 850-700 mb temperatures at the base of the EML cast uncertainty onto how intense surface winds will be. Higher risk probabilities may be needed for either of these scenarios as forecast uncertainty become resolved. ...Northern Rockies into the Northern/Central High Plains... An upper-level impulse currently off the southern CA coast is forecast to phase favorably with peak heating over the northern Rockies/central High Plains. This will promote thunderstorm development within the higher terrain of southern MT and northern WY and along a surface trough draped across the western Plains by late afternoon. Strong daytime heating under a plume of steep mid-level lapse rates and on the western fringe of a low-level moisture plume will result in deeply mixed profiles with around 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Moderate mid-level flow within the CAPE-bearing layer may support adequate deep-layer shear for a supercell or two across MT/northern WY, but weaker shear with southward extent will limit storm organization/longevity. Regardless, thermodynamic profiles will be very favorable for strong to severe downburst winds. ...Midwest to Mid-Atlantic... A weak mid-level impulse/MCV emanating out of the Plains will promote scattered showers and weak thunderstorms across the Midwest at the start of the forecast period. Lingering showers and clouds casts some uncertainty regarding diurnal heating/destabilization, but rich boundary-layer moisture already in place will likely support MLCAPE values upwards of at least 2000 J/kg by late afternoon. Areas along the composite frontal zone that can destabilize will likely see thunderstorm development by mid-afternoon as the MCV propagates east across the Midwest/Great Lakes. Augmented mid-level winds attendant to this feature will support 0-6 km bulk shear values on the order of 20-30 knots, which in conjunction with mean flow along the boundary, should promote a mix of semi-discrete cells and loosely organized clusters capable of damaging to severe winds and perhaps large hail. Further east across southern PA into the Mid-Atlantic, thunderstorm development is anticipated by mid to late afternoon both within the central Appalachians and along a diffuse frontal zone. Despite weak mid-level lapse rates, rich low-level moisture should support widespread MLCAPE values of around 1500 J/kg with minimal capping. Easterly low-level winds under northwesterly mid-level flow will provide sufficient hodograph elongation for organized cells/clusters with an attendant threat for damaging/severe winds. ..Moore.. 07/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND THE DAKOTAS AS WELL AS THE MIDWEST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms accompanied by potentially damaging wind gusts are possible Saturday afternoon/evening in parts of the Upper Midwest/Lower Great Lakes into portions of the Mid-Atlantic. Isolated to widely scattered severe storms are also likely across the Northern Rockies, central High Plains, and northern Plains. ...Synopsis... The overall synoptic regime will largely remain in place over the next 48 hours across the country, characterized by a persistent upper ridge over the Southeast with longwave troughing west of the Rockies. A diffuse frontal zone draped from the upper OH Valley into the central Plains this morning should largely remain in place across the upper Midwest/Great Lakes region and will act as a foci for thunderstorm development through the afternoon. To the west, a low-amplitude impulse currently off the coast of southwest CA will propagate into the central Rockies/High Plains around peak heating. This will support isolated to scattered thunderstorm development that may persist into the overnight hours across the northern Plains. ...Eastern North Dakota... Two rounds of severe thunderstorms appear possible across eastern ND and far northwest MN tomorrow afternoon and overnight. A weak surface front emanating out of the southern Canadian prairies will impinge on the northern edge of a plume of 70-75 dewpoints as it moves into northeast ND and far northwest MN. Steep mid-level lapse rates advecting into the region coupled with rich low-level moisture should support 3000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE by late afternoon. 30-40 knot mid-level flow will provide adequate deep-layer wind shear for organized storms, including the potential for a few supercells capable of large hail and severe winds. Increasing capping with southward extent should limit the spatial extent of this threat. Morning guidance hints at the passage of an MCS across the Dakotas overnight as a result of upscale growth of convection over the High Plains. Given the steep lapse rates in place upstream per 12z RAOBS and the passage of weak mid-level wave during the overnight period, this scenario appears plausible. However, deterministic solutions vary regarding the intensity of the potential MCS, and nocturnal cooling coupled with warm 850-700 mb temperatures at the base of the EML cast uncertainty onto how intense surface winds will be. Higher risk probabilities may be needed for either of these scenarios as forecast uncertainty become resolved. ...Northern Rockies into the Northern/Central High Plains... An upper-level impulse currently off the southern CA coast is forecast to phase favorably with peak heating over the northern Rockies/central High Plains. This will promote thunderstorm development within the higher terrain of southern MT and northern WY and along a surface trough draped across the western Plains by late afternoon. Strong daytime heating under a plume of steep mid-level lapse rates and on the western fringe of a low-level moisture plume will result in deeply mixed profiles with around 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Moderate mid-level flow within the CAPE-bearing layer may support adequate deep-layer shear for a supercell or two across MT/northern WY, but weaker shear with southward extent will limit storm organization/longevity. Regardless, thermodynamic profiles will be very favorable for strong to severe downburst winds. ...Midwest to Mid-Atlantic... A weak mid-level impulse/MCV emanating out of the Plains will promote scattered showers and weak thunderstorms across the Midwest at the start of the forecast period. Lingering showers and clouds casts some uncertainty regarding diurnal heating/destabilization, but rich boundary-layer moisture already in place will likely support MLCAPE values upwards of at least 2000 J/kg by late afternoon. Areas along the composite frontal zone that can destabilize will likely see thunderstorm development by mid-afternoon as the MCV propagates east across the Midwest/Great Lakes. Augmented mid-level winds attendant to this feature will support 0-6 km bulk shear values on the order of 20-30 knots, which in conjunction with mean flow along the boundary, should promote a mix of semi-discrete cells and loosely organized clusters capable of damaging to severe winds and perhaps large hail. Further east across southern PA into the Mid-Atlantic, thunderstorm development is anticipated by mid to late afternoon both within the central Appalachians and along a diffuse frontal zone. Despite weak mid-level lapse rates, rich low-level moisture should support widespread MLCAPE values of around 1500 J/kg with minimal capping. Easterly low-level winds under northwesterly mid-level flow will provide sufficient hodograph elongation for organized cells/clusters with an attendant threat for damaging/severe winds. ..Moore.. 07/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND THE DAKOTAS AS WELL AS THE MIDWEST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms accompanied by potentially damaging wind gusts are possible Saturday afternoon/evening in parts of the Upper Midwest/Lower Great Lakes into portions of the Mid-Atlantic. Isolated to widely scattered severe storms are also likely across the Northern Rockies, central High Plains, and northern Plains. ...Synopsis... The overall synoptic regime will largely remain in place over the next 48 hours across the country, characterized by a persistent upper ridge over the Southeast with longwave troughing west of the Rockies. A diffuse frontal zone draped from the upper OH Valley into the central Plains this morning should largely remain in place across the upper Midwest/Great Lakes region and will act as a foci for thunderstorm development through the afternoon. To the west, a low-amplitude impulse currently off the coast of southwest CA will propagate into the central Rockies/High Plains around peak heating. This will support isolated to scattered thunderstorm development that may persist into the overnight hours across the northern Plains. ...Eastern North Dakota... Two rounds of severe thunderstorms appear possible across eastern ND and far northwest MN tomorrow afternoon and overnight. A weak surface front emanating out of the southern Canadian prairies will impinge on the northern edge of a plume of 70-75 dewpoints as it moves into northeast ND and far northwest MN. Steep mid-level lapse rates advecting into the region coupled with rich low-level moisture should support 3000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE by late afternoon. 30-40 knot mid-level flow will provide adequate deep-layer wind shear for organized storms, including the potential for a few supercells capable of large hail and severe winds. Increasing capping with southward extent should limit the spatial extent of this threat. Morning guidance hints at the passage of an MCS across the Dakotas overnight as a result of upscale growth of convection over the High Plains. Given the steep lapse rates in place upstream per 12z RAOBS and the passage of weak mid-level wave during the overnight period, this scenario appears plausible. However, deterministic solutions vary regarding the intensity of the potential MCS, and nocturnal cooling coupled with warm 850-700 mb temperatures at the base of the EML cast uncertainty onto how intense surface winds will be. Higher risk probabilities may be needed for either of these scenarios as forecast uncertainty become resolved. ...Northern Rockies into the Northern/Central High Plains... An upper-level impulse currently off the southern CA coast is forecast to phase favorably with peak heating over the northern Rockies/central High Plains. This will promote thunderstorm development within the higher terrain of southern MT and northern WY and along a surface trough draped across the western Plains by late afternoon. Strong daytime heating under a plume of steep mid-level lapse rates and on the western fringe of a low-level moisture plume will result in deeply mixed profiles with around 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Moderate mid-level flow within the CAPE-bearing layer may support adequate deep-layer shear for a supercell or two across MT/northern WY, but weaker shear with southward extent will limit storm organization/longevity. Regardless, thermodynamic profiles will be very favorable for strong to severe downburst winds. ...Midwest to Mid-Atlantic... A weak mid-level impulse/MCV emanating out of the Plains will promote scattered showers and weak thunderstorms across the Midwest at the start of the forecast period. Lingering showers and clouds casts some uncertainty regarding diurnal heating/destabilization, but rich boundary-layer moisture already in place will likely support MLCAPE values upwards of at least 2000 J/kg by late afternoon. Areas along the composite frontal zone that can destabilize will likely see thunderstorm development by mid-afternoon as the MCV propagates east across the Midwest/Great Lakes. Augmented mid-level winds attendant to this feature will support 0-6 km bulk shear values on the order of 20-30 knots, which in conjunction with mean flow along the boundary, should promote a mix of semi-discrete cells and loosely organized clusters capable of damaging to severe winds and perhaps large hail. Further east across southern PA into the Mid-Atlantic, thunderstorm development is anticipated by mid to late afternoon both within the central Appalachians and along a diffuse frontal zone. Despite weak mid-level lapse rates, rich low-level moisture should support widespread MLCAPE values of around 1500 J/kg with minimal capping. Easterly low-level winds under northwesterly mid-level flow will provide sufficient hodograph elongation for organized cells/clusters with an attendant threat for damaging/severe winds. ..Moore.. 07/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND THE DAKOTAS AS WELL AS THE MIDWEST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms accompanied by potentially damaging wind gusts are possible Saturday afternoon/evening in parts of the Upper Midwest/Lower Great Lakes into portions of the Mid-Atlantic. Isolated to widely scattered severe storms are also likely across the Northern Rockies, central High Plains, and northern Plains. ...Synopsis... The overall synoptic regime will largely remain in place over the next 48 hours across the country, characterized by a persistent upper ridge over the Southeast with longwave troughing west of the Rockies. A diffuse frontal zone draped from the upper OH Valley into the central Plains this morning should largely remain in place across the upper Midwest/Great Lakes region and will act as a foci for thunderstorm development through the afternoon. To the west, a low-amplitude impulse currently off the coast of southwest CA will propagate into the central Rockies/High Plains around peak heating. This will support isolated to scattered thunderstorm development that may persist into the overnight hours across the northern Plains. ...Eastern North Dakota... Two rounds of severe thunderstorms appear possible across eastern ND and far northwest MN tomorrow afternoon and overnight. A weak surface front emanating out of the southern Canadian prairies will impinge on the northern edge of a plume of 70-75 dewpoints as it moves into northeast ND and far northwest MN. Steep mid-level lapse rates advecting into the region coupled with rich low-level moisture should support 3000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE by late afternoon. 30-40 knot mid-level flow will provide adequate deep-layer wind shear for organized storms, including the potential for a few supercells capable of large hail and severe winds. Increasing capping with southward extent should limit the spatial extent of this threat. Morning guidance hints at the passage of an MCS across the Dakotas overnight as a result of upscale growth of convection over the High Plains. Given the steep lapse rates in place upstream per 12z RAOBS and the passage of weak mid-level wave during the overnight period, this scenario appears plausible. However, deterministic solutions vary regarding the intensity of the potential MCS, and nocturnal cooling coupled with warm 850-700 mb temperatures at the base of the EML cast uncertainty onto how intense surface winds will be. Higher risk probabilities may be needed for either of these scenarios as forecast uncertainty become resolved. ...Northern Rockies into the Northern/Central High Plains... An upper-level impulse currently off the southern CA coast is forecast to phase favorably with peak heating over the northern Rockies/central High Plains. This will promote thunderstorm development within the higher terrain of southern MT and northern WY and along a surface trough draped across the western Plains by late afternoon. Strong daytime heating under a plume of steep mid-level lapse rates and on the western fringe of a low-level moisture plume will result in deeply mixed profiles with around 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Moderate mid-level flow within the CAPE-bearing layer may support adequate deep-layer shear for a supercell or two across MT/northern WY, but weaker shear with southward extent will limit storm organization/longevity. Regardless, thermodynamic profiles will be very favorable for strong to severe downburst winds. ...Midwest to Mid-Atlantic... A weak mid-level impulse/MCV emanating out of the Plains will promote scattered showers and weak thunderstorms across the Midwest at the start of the forecast period. Lingering showers and clouds casts some uncertainty regarding diurnal heating/destabilization, but rich boundary-layer moisture already in place will likely support MLCAPE values upwards of at least 2000 J/kg by late afternoon. Areas along the composite frontal zone that can destabilize will likely see thunderstorm development by mid-afternoon as the MCV propagates east across the Midwest/Great Lakes. Augmented mid-level winds attendant to this feature will support 0-6 km bulk shear values on the order of 20-30 knots, which in conjunction with mean flow along the boundary, should promote a mix of semi-discrete cells and loosely organized clusters capable of damaging to severe winds and perhaps large hail. Further east across southern PA into the Mid-Atlantic, thunderstorm development is anticipated by mid to late afternoon both within the central Appalachians and along a diffuse frontal zone. Despite weak mid-level lapse rates, rich low-level moisture should support widespread MLCAPE values of around 1500 J/kg with minimal capping. Easterly low-level winds under northwesterly mid-level flow will provide sufficient hodograph elongation for organized cells/clusters with an attendant threat for damaging/severe winds. ..Moore.. 07/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND THE DAKOTAS AS WELL AS THE MIDWEST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms accompanied by potentially damaging wind gusts are possible Saturday afternoon/evening in parts of the Upper Midwest/Lower Great Lakes into portions of the Mid-Atlantic. Isolated to widely scattered severe storms are also likely across the Northern Rockies, central High Plains, and northern Plains. ...Synopsis... The overall synoptic regime will largely remain in place over the next 48 hours across the country, characterized by a persistent upper ridge over the Southeast with longwave troughing west of the Rockies. A diffuse frontal zone draped from the upper OH Valley into the central Plains this morning should largely remain in place across the upper Midwest/Great Lakes region and will act as a foci for thunderstorm development through the afternoon. To the west, a low-amplitude impulse currently off the coast of southwest CA will propagate into the central Rockies/High Plains around peak heating. This will support isolated to scattered thunderstorm development that may persist into the overnight hours across the northern Plains. ...Eastern North Dakota... Two rounds of severe thunderstorms appear possible across eastern ND and far northwest MN tomorrow afternoon and overnight. A weak surface front emanating out of the southern Canadian prairies will impinge on the northern edge of a plume of 70-75 dewpoints as it moves into northeast ND and far northwest MN. Steep mid-level lapse rates advecting into the region coupled with rich low-level moisture should support 3000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE by late afternoon. 30-40 knot mid-level flow will provide adequate deep-layer wind shear for organized storms, including the potential for a few supercells capable of large hail and severe winds. Increasing capping with southward extent should limit the spatial extent of this threat. Morning guidance hints at the passage of an MCS across the Dakotas overnight as a result of upscale growth of convection over the High Plains. Given the steep lapse rates in place upstream per 12z RAOBS and the passage of weak mid-level wave during the overnight period, this scenario appears plausible. However, deterministic solutions vary regarding the intensity of the potential MCS, and nocturnal cooling coupled with warm 850-700 mb temperatures at the base of the EML cast uncertainty onto how intense surface winds will be. Higher risk probabilities may be needed for either of these scenarios as forecast uncertainty become resolved. ...Northern Rockies into the Northern/Central High Plains... An upper-level impulse currently off the southern CA coast is forecast to phase favorably with peak heating over the northern Rockies/central High Plains. This will promote thunderstorm development within the higher terrain of southern MT and northern WY and along a surface trough draped across the western Plains by late afternoon. Strong daytime heating under a plume of steep mid-level lapse rates and on the western fringe of a low-level moisture plume will result in deeply mixed profiles with around 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Moderate mid-level flow within the CAPE-bearing layer may support adequate deep-layer shear for a supercell or two across MT/northern WY, but weaker shear with southward extent will limit storm organization/longevity. Regardless, thermodynamic profiles will be very favorable for strong to severe downburst winds. ...Midwest to Mid-Atlantic... A weak mid-level impulse/MCV emanating out of the Plains will promote scattered showers and weak thunderstorms across the Midwest at the start of the forecast period. Lingering showers and clouds casts some uncertainty regarding diurnal heating/destabilization, but rich boundary-layer moisture already in place will likely support MLCAPE values upwards of at least 2000 J/kg by late afternoon. Areas along the composite frontal zone that can destabilize will likely see thunderstorm development by mid-afternoon as the MCV propagates east across the Midwest/Great Lakes. Augmented mid-level winds attendant to this feature will support 0-6 km bulk shear values on the order of 20-30 knots, which in conjunction with mean flow along the boundary, should promote a mix of semi-discrete cells and loosely organized clusters capable of damaging to severe winds and perhaps large hail. Further east across southern PA into the Mid-Atlantic, thunderstorm development is anticipated by mid to late afternoon both within the central Appalachians and along a diffuse frontal zone. Despite weak mid-level lapse rates, rich low-level moisture should support widespread MLCAPE values of around 1500 J/kg with minimal capping. Easterly low-level winds under northwesterly mid-level flow will provide sufficient hodograph elongation for organized cells/clusters with an attendant threat for damaging/severe winds. ..Moore.. 07/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND THE DAKOTAS AS WELL AS THE MIDWEST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms accompanied by potentially damaging wind gusts are possible Saturday afternoon/evening in parts of the Upper Midwest/Lower Great Lakes into portions of the Mid-Atlantic. Isolated to widely scattered severe storms are also likely across the Northern Rockies, central High Plains, and northern Plains. ...Synopsis... The overall synoptic regime will largely remain in place over the next 48 hours across the country, characterized by a persistent upper ridge over the Southeast with longwave troughing west of the Rockies. A diffuse frontal zone draped from the upper OH Valley into the central Plains this morning should largely remain in place across the upper Midwest/Great Lakes region and will act as a foci for thunderstorm development through the afternoon. To the west, a low-amplitude impulse currently off the coast of southwest CA will propagate into the central Rockies/High Plains around peak heating. This will support isolated to scattered thunderstorm development that may persist into the overnight hours across the northern Plains. ...Eastern North Dakota... Two rounds of severe thunderstorms appear possible across eastern ND and far northwest MN tomorrow afternoon and overnight. A weak surface front emanating out of the southern Canadian prairies will impinge on the northern edge of a plume of 70-75 dewpoints as it moves into northeast ND and far northwest MN. Steep mid-level lapse rates advecting into the region coupled with rich low-level moisture should support 3000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE by late afternoon. 30-40 knot mid-level flow will provide adequate deep-layer wind shear for organized storms, including the potential for a few supercells capable of large hail and severe winds. Increasing capping with southward extent should limit the spatial extent of this threat. Morning guidance hints at the passage of an MCS across the Dakotas overnight as a result of upscale growth of convection over the High Plains. Given the steep lapse rates in place upstream per 12z RAOBS and the passage of weak mid-level wave during the overnight period, this scenario appears plausible. However, deterministic solutions vary regarding the intensity of the potential MCS, and nocturnal cooling coupled with warm 850-700 mb temperatures at the base of the EML cast uncertainty onto how intense surface winds will be. Higher risk probabilities may be needed for either of these scenarios as forecast uncertainty become resolved. ...Northern Rockies into the Northern/Central High Plains... An upper-level impulse currently off the southern CA coast is forecast to phase favorably with peak heating over the northern Rockies/central High Plains. This will promote thunderstorm development within the higher terrain of southern MT and northern WY and along a surface trough draped across the western Plains by late afternoon. Strong daytime heating under a plume of steep mid-level lapse rates and on the western fringe of a low-level moisture plume will result in deeply mixed profiles with around 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Moderate mid-level flow within the CAPE-bearing layer may support adequate deep-layer shear for a supercell or two across MT/northern WY, but weaker shear with southward extent will limit storm organization/longevity. Regardless, thermodynamic profiles will be very favorable for strong to severe downburst winds. ...Midwest to Mid-Atlantic... A weak mid-level impulse/MCV emanating out of the Plains will promote scattered showers and weak thunderstorms across the Midwest at the start of the forecast period. Lingering showers and clouds casts some uncertainty regarding diurnal heating/destabilization, but rich boundary-layer moisture already in place will likely support MLCAPE values upwards of at least 2000 J/kg by late afternoon. Areas along the composite frontal zone that can destabilize will likely see thunderstorm development by mid-afternoon as the MCV propagates east across the Midwest/Great Lakes. Augmented mid-level winds attendant to this feature will support 0-6 km bulk shear values on the order of 20-30 knots, which in conjunction with mean flow along the boundary, should promote a mix of semi-discrete cells and loosely organized clusters capable of damaging to severe winds and perhaps large hail. Further east across southern PA into the Mid-Atlantic, thunderstorm development is anticipated by mid to late afternoon both within the central Appalachians and along a diffuse frontal zone. Despite weak mid-level lapse rates, rich low-level moisture should support widespread MLCAPE values of around 1500 J/kg with minimal capping. Easterly low-level winds under northwesterly mid-level flow will provide sufficient hodograph elongation for organized cells/clusters with an attendant threat for damaging/severe winds. ..Moore.. 07/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND THE DAKOTAS AS WELL AS THE MIDWEST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms accompanied by potentially damaging wind gusts are possible Saturday afternoon/evening in parts of the Upper Midwest/Lower Great Lakes into portions of the Mid-Atlantic. Isolated to widely scattered severe storms are also likely across the Northern Rockies, central High Plains, and northern Plains. ...Synopsis... The overall synoptic regime will largely remain in place over the next 48 hours across the country, characterized by a persistent upper ridge over the Southeast with longwave troughing west of the Rockies. A diffuse frontal zone draped from the upper OH Valley into the central Plains this morning should largely remain in place across the upper Midwest/Great Lakes region and will act as a foci for thunderstorm development through the afternoon. To the west, a low-amplitude impulse currently off the coast of southwest CA will propagate into the central Rockies/High Plains around peak heating. This will support isolated to scattered thunderstorm development that may persist into the overnight hours across the northern Plains. ...Eastern North Dakota... Two rounds of severe thunderstorms appear possible across eastern ND and far northwest MN tomorrow afternoon and overnight. A weak surface front emanating out of the southern Canadian prairies will impinge on the northern edge of a plume of 70-75 dewpoints as it moves into northeast ND and far northwest MN. Steep mid-level lapse rates advecting into the region coupled with rich low-level moisture should support 3000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE by late afternoon. 30-40 knot mid-level flow will provide adequate deep-layer wind shear for organized storms, including the potential for a few supercells capable of large hail and severe winds. Increasing capping with southward extent should limit the spatial extent of this threat. Morning guidance hints at the passage of an MCS across the Dakotas overnight as a result of upscale growth of convection over the High Plains. Given the steep lapse rates in place upstream per 12z RAOBS and the passage of weak mid-level wave during the overnight period, this scenario appears plausible. However, deterministic solutions vary regarding the intensity of the potential MCS, and nocturnal cooling coupled with warm 850-700 mb temperatures at the base of the EML cast uncertainty onto how intense surface winds will be. Higher risk probabilities may be needed for either of these scenarios as forecast uncertainty become resolved. ...Northern Rockies into the Northern/Central High Plains... An upper-level impulse currently off the southern CA coast is forecast to phase favorably with peak heating over the northern Rockies/central High Plains. This will promote thunderstorm development within the higher terrain of southern MT and northern WY and along a surface trough draped across the western Plains by late afternoon. Strong daytime heating under a plume of steep mid-level lapse rates and on the western fringe of a low-level moisture plume will result in deeply mixed profiles with around 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Moderate mid-level flow within the CAPE-bearing layer may support adequate deep-layer shear for a supercell or two across MT/northern WY, but weaker shear with southward extent will limit storm organization/longevity. Regardless, thermodynamic profiles will be very favorable for strong to severe downburst winds. ...Midwest to Mid-Atlantic... A weak mid-level impulse/MCV emanating out of the Plains will promote scattered showers and weak thunderstorms across the Midwest at the start of the forecast period. Lingering showers and clouds casts some uncertainty regarding diurnal heating/destabilization, but rich boundary-layer moisture already in place will likely support MLCAPE values upwards of at least 2000 J/kg by late afternoon. Areas along the composite frontal zone that can destabilize will likely see thunderstorm development by mid-afternoon as the MCV propagates east across the Midwest/Great Lakes. Augmented mid-level winds attendant to this feature will support 0-6 km bulk shear values on the order of 20-30 knots, which in conjunction with mean flow along the boundary, should promote a mix of semi-discrete cells and loosely organized clusters capable of damaging to severe winds and perhaps large hail. Further east across southern PA into the Mid-Atlantic, thunderstorm development is anticipated by mid to late afternoon both within the central Appalachians and along a diffuse frontal zone. Despite weak mid-level lapse rates, rich low-level moisture should support widespread MLCAPE values of around 1500 J/kg with minimal capping. Easterly low-level winds under northwesterly mid-level flow will provide sufficient hodograph elongation for organized cells/clusters with an attendant threat for damaging/severe winds. ..Moore.. 07/25/2025 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 251727
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Fri Jul 25 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Well Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands(EP97):
An area of low pressure located well southeast of the Hawaiian
Islands is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms.
Some gradual development of this system is possible, and a tropical
depression could form this weekend or early next week as it
moves generally westward at 10 to 15 mph across the far western
portion of the eastern Pacific and into the Central Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

Central East Pacific:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form offshore of the
southwestern coast of Mexico early next week. Thereafter,
environmental conditions appear conducive for some development as
the system moves generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

No watches are valid as of Fri Jul 25 17:29:02 UTC 2025.

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...NORTHERN PLAINS...AND PARTS OF EASTERN KANSAS/WESTERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will pose a risk of damaging wind gusts across parts of New England and the northern Mid-Atlantic States this afternoon. Severe storms will also be possible across much of North Dakota as well as eastern Kansas into western Missouri. ...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic States... Midday vapor imagery shows a fast-moving shortwave trough progressing eastward into Quebec. An associated cold front will move south-southeastward across New England this afternoon. Relatively hot/humid conditions ahead of the front will lead to widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms across southern New England and eastern portions of New York/Pennsylvania. These storms will track southeastward toward the coast through the early evening with damaging winds possible. ...Northern Plains including North Dakota... An upper ridge remains centered over the central Plains, with a weak southern-stream trough currently moving across Utah into Wyoming. Weak lift and increased mid-level moisture ahead of the system will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms by late afternoon across parts of eastern Montana and northeast Wyoming. Thermodynamic parameters are favorable for large hail in the stronger cells. It seems that these storms will tend to persist east-northeastward this evening and pose a risk of hail and locally damaging winds across North Dakota. ...Eastern Kansas/western Missouri... Regional WSR-88D VWP data continues to sample modestly enhanced low/mid-tropospheric flow in relation to a slow-moving MCV, notable from KEAX where 35-40 kt west-southwesterly flow persists between 3-5 km AGL. With a very moist air mass in place (low to middle 70s F surface dewpoints), intensifying storms could include supercells given some likely persistence of the enhanced flow field. Especially with a convectively reinforced surface boundary, a semi-focused corridor of damaging winds and brief tornado potential could evolve this afternoon into early evening. ...Northern California/western Nevada... Aside from the dry thunderstorm potential (see Fire Weather Day 1 Outlook), sufficient moisture/buoyancy may exist on the eastern and northern periphery of the slow-moving upper low, where mid-level temperatures (-12C at 500mb) are semi-cool, to allow for some hail and/or convectively enhanced wind gusts this afternoon through around sunset. ..Guyer/Supinie.. 07/25/2025 Read more