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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...NORTHERN PLAINS...AND PARTS OF EASTERN KANSAS/WESTERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will pose a risk of damaging wind gusts across parts of New England and the northern Mid-Atlantic States this afternoon. Severe storms will also be possible across much of North Dakota as well as eastern Kansas into western Missouri. ...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic States... Midday vapor imagery shows a fast-moving shortwave trough progressing eastward into Quebec. An associated cold front will move south-southeastward across New England this afternoon. Relatively hot/humid conditions ahead of the front will lead to widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms across southern New England and eastern portions of New York/Pennsylvania. These storms will track southeastward toward the coast through the early evening with damaging winds possible. ...Northern Plains including North Dakota... An upper ridge remains centered over the central Plains, with a weak southern-stream trough currently moving across Utah into Wyoming. Weak lift and increased mid-level moisture ahead of the system will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms by late afternoon across parts of eastern Montana and northeast Wyoming. Thermodynamic parameters are favorable for large hail in the stronger cells. It seems that these storms will tend to persist east-northeastward this evening and pose a risk of hail and locally damaging winds across North Dakota. ...Eastern Kansas/western Missouri... Regional WSR-88D VWP data continues to sample modestly enhanced low/mid-tropospheric flow in relation to a slow-moving MCV, notable from KEAX where 35-40 kt west-southwesterly flow persists between 3-5 km AGL. With a very moist air mass in place (low to middle 70s F surface dewpoints), intensifying storms could include supercells given some likely persistence of the enhanced flow field. Especially with a convectively reinforced surface boundary, a semi-focused corridor of damaging winds and brief tornado potential could evolve this afternoon into early evening. ...Northern California/western Nevada... Aside from the dry thunderstorm potential (see Fire Weather Day 1 Outlook), sufficient moisture/buoyancy may exist on the eastern and northern periphery of the slow-moving upper low, where mid-level temperatures (-12C at 500mb) are semi-cool, to allow for some hail and/or convectively enhanced wind gusts this afternoon through around sunset. ..Guyer/Supinie.. 07/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...NORTHERN PLAINS...AND PARTS OF EASTERN KANSAS/WESTERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will pose a risk of damaging wind gusts across parts of New England and the northern Mid-Atlantic States this afternoon. Severe storms will also be possible across much of North Dakota as well as eastern Kansas into western Missouri. ...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic States... Midday vapor imagery shows a fast-moving shortwave trough progressing eastward into Quebec. An associated cold front will move south-southeastward across New England this afternoon. Relatively hot/humid conditions ahead of the front will lead to widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms across southern New England and eastern portions of New York/Pennsylvania. These storms will track southeastward toward the coast through the early evening with damaging winds possible. ...Northern Plains including North Dakota... An upper ridge remains centered over the central Plains, with a weak southern-stream trough currently moving across Utah into Wyoming. Weak lift and increased mid-level moisture ahead of the system will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms by late afternoon across parts of eastern Montana and northeast Wyoming. Thermodynamic parameters are favorable for large hail in the stronger cells. It seems that these storms will tend to persist east-northeastward this evening and pose a risk of hail and locally damaging winds across North Dakota. ...Eastern Kansas/western Missouri... Regional WSR-88D VWP data continues to sample modestly enhanced low/mid-tropospheric flow in relation to a slow-moving MCV, notable from KEAX where 35-40 kt west-southwesterly flow persists between 3-5 km AGL. With a very moist air mass in place (low to middle 70s F surface dewpoints), intensifying storms could include supercells given some likely persistence of the enhanced flow field. Especially with a convectively reinforced surface boundary, a semi-focused corridor of damaging winds and brief tornado potential could evolve this afternoon into early evening. ...Northern California/western Nevada... Aside from the dry thunderstorm potential (see Fire Weather Day 1 Outlook), sufficient moisture/buoyancy may exist on the eastern and northern periphery of the slow-moving upper low, where mid-level temperatures (-12C at 500mb) are semi-cool, to allow for some hail and/or convectively enhanced wind gusts this afternoon through around sunset. ..Guyer/Supinie.. 07/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...NORTHERN PLAINS...AND PARTS OF EASTERN KANSAS/WESTERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will pose a risk of damaging wind gusts across parts of New England and the northern Mid-Atlantic States this afternoon. Severe storms will also be possible across much of North Dakota as well as eastern Kansas into western Missouri. ...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic States... Midday vapor imagery shows a fast-moving shortwave trough progressing eastward into Quebec. An associated cold front will move south-southeastward across New England this afternoon. Relatively hot/humid conditions ahead of the front will lead to widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms across southern New England and eastern portions of New York/Pennsylvania. These storms will track southeastward toward the coast through the early evening with damaging winds possible. ...Northern Plains including North Dakota... An upper ridge remains centered over the central Plains, with a weak southern-stream trough currently moving across Utah into Wyoming. Weak lift and increased mid-level moisture ahead of the system will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms by late afternoon across parts of eastern Montana and northeast Wyoming. Thermodynamic parameters are favorable for large hail in the stronger cells. It seems that these storms will tend to persist east-northeastward this evening and pose a risk of hail and locally damaging winds across North Dakota. ...Eastern Kansas/western Missouri... Regional WSR-88D VWP data continues to sample modestly enhanced low/mid-tropospheric flow in relation to a slow-moving MCV, notable from KEAX where 35-40 kt west-southwesterly flow persists between 3-5 km AGL. With a very moist air mass in place (low to middle 70s F surface dewpoints), intensifying storms could include supercells given some likely persistence of the enhanced flow field. Especially with a convectively reinforced surface boundary, a semi-focused corridor of damaging winds and brief tornado potential could evolve this afternoon into early evening. ...Northern California/western Nevada... Aside from the dry thunderstorm potential (see Fire Weather Day 1 Outlook), sufficient moisture/buoyancy may exist on the eastern and northern periphery of the slow-moving upper low, where mid-level temperatures (-12C at 500mb) are semi-cool, to allow for some hail and/or convectively enhanced wind gusts this afternoon through around sunset. ..Guyer/Supinie.. 07/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...NORTHERN PLAINS...AND PARTS OF EASTERN KANSAS/WESTERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will pose a risk of damaging wind gusts across parts of New England and the northern Mid-Atlantic States this afternoon. Severe storms will also be possible across much of North Dakota as well as eastern Kansas into western Missouri. ...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic States... Midday vapor imagery shows a fast-moving shortwave trough progressing eastward into Quebec. An associated cold front will move south-southeastward across New England this afternoon. Relatively hot/humid conditions ahead of the front will lead to widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms across southern New England and eastern portions of New York/Pennsylvania. These storms will track southeastward toward the coast through the early evening with damaging winds possible. ...Northern Plains including North Dakota... An upper ridge remains centered over the central Plains, with a weak southern-stream trough currently moving across Utah into Wyoming. Weak lift and increased mid-level moisture ahead of the system will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms by late afternoon across parts of eastern Montana and northeast Wyoming. Thermodynamic parameters are favorable for large hail in the stronger cells. It seems that these storms will tend to persist east-northeastward this evening and pose a risk of hail and locally damaging winds across North Dakota. ...Eastern Kansas/western Missouri... Regional WSR-88D VWP data continues to sample modestly enhanced low/mid-tropospheric flow in relation to a slow-moving MCV, notable from KEAX where 35-40 kt west-southwesterly flow persists between 3-5 km AGL. With a very moist air mass in place (low to middle 70s F surface dewpoints), intensifying storms could include supercells given some likely persistence of the enhanced flow field. Especially with a convectively reinforced surface boundary, a semi-focused corridor of damaging winds and brief tornado potential could evolve this afternoon into early evening. ...Northern California/western Nevada... Aside from the dry thunderstorm potential (see Fire Weather Day 1 Outlook), sufficient moisture/buoyancy may exist on the eastern and northern periphery of the slow-moving upper low, where mid-level temperatures (-12C at 500mb) are semi-cool, to allow for some hail and/or convectively enhanced wind gusts this afternoon through around sunset. ..Guyer/Supinie.. 07/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...NORTHERN PLAINS...AND PARTS OF EASTERN KANSAS/WESTERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will pose a risk of damaging wind gusts across parts of New England and the northern Mid-Atlantic States this afternoon. Severe storms will also be possible across much of North Dakota as well as eastern Kansas into western Missouri. ...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic States... Midday vapor imagery shows a fast-moving shortwave trough progressing eastward into Quebec. An associated cold front will move south-southeastward across New England this afternoon. Relatively hot/humid conditions ahead of the front will lead to widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms across southern New England and eastern portions of New York/Pennsylvania. These storms will track southeastward toward the coast through the early evening with damaging winds possible. ...Northern Plains including North Dakota... An upper ridge remains centered over the central Plains, with a weak southern-stream trough currently moving across Utah into Wyoming. Weak lift and increased mid-level moisture ahead of the system will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms by late afternoon across parts of eastern Montana and northeast Wyoming. Thermodynamic parameters are favorable for large hail in the stronger cells. It seems that these storms will tend to persist east-northeastward this evening and pose a risk of hail and locally damaging winds across North Dakota. ...Eastern Kansas/western Missouri... Regional WSR-88D VWP data continues to sample modestly enhanced low/mid-tropospheric flow in relation to a slow-moving MCV, notable from KEAX where 35-40 kt west-southwesterly flow persists between 3-5 km AGL. With a very moist air mass in place (low to middle 70s F surface dewpoints), intensifying storms could include supercells given some likely persistence of the enhanced flow field. Especially with a convectively reinforced surface boundary, a semi-focused corridor of damaging winds and brief tornado potential could evolve this afternoon into early evening. ...Northern California/western Nevada... Aside from the dry thunderstorm potential (see Fire Weather Day 1 Outlook), sufficient moisture/buoyancy may exist on the eastern and northern periphery of the slow-moving upper low, where mid-level temperatures (-12C at 500mb) are semi-cool, to allow for some hail and/or convectively enhanced wind gusts this afternoon through around sunset. ..Guyer/Supinie.. 07/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...NORTHERN PLAINS...AND PARTS OF EASTERN KANSAS/WESTERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will pose a risk of damaging wind gusts across parts of New England and the northern Mid-Atlantic States this afternoon. Severe storms will also be possible across much of North Dakota as well as eastern Kansas into western Missouri. ...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic States... Midday vapor imagery shows a fast-moving shortwave trough progressing eastward into Quebec. An associated cold front will move south-southeastward across New England this afternoon. Relatively hot/humid conditions ahead of the front will lead to widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms across southern New England and eastern portions of New York/Pennsylvania. These storms will track southeastward toward the coast through the early evening with damaging winds possible. ...Northern Plains including North Dakota... An upper ridge remains centered over the central Plains, with a weak southern-stream trough currently moving across Utah into Wyoming. Weak lift and increased mid-level moisture ahead of the system will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms by late afternoon across parts of eastern Montana and northeast Wyoming. Thermodynamic parameters are favorable for large hail in the stronger cells. It seems that these storms will tend to persist east-northeastward this evening and pose a risk of hail and locally damaging winds across North Dakota. ...Eastern Kansas/western Missouri... Regional WSR-88D VWP data continues to sample modestly enhanced low/mid-tropospheric flow in relation to a slow-moving MCV, notable from KEAX where 35-40 kt west-southwesterly flow persists between 3-5 km AGL. With a very moist air mass in place (low to middle 70s F surface dewpoints), intensifying storms could include supercells given some likely persistence of the enhanced flow field. Especially with a convectively reinforced surface boundary, a semi-focused corridor of damaging winds and brief tornado potential could evolve this afternoon into early evening. ...Northern California/western Nevada... Aside from the dry thunderstorm potential (see Fire Weather Day 1 Outlook), sufficient moisture/buoyancy may exist on the eastern and northern periphery of the slow-moving upper low, where mid-level temperatures (-12C at 500mb) are semi-cool, to allow for some hail and/or convectively enhanced wind gusts this afternoon through around sunset. ..Guyer/Supinie.. 07/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...NORTHERN PLAINS...AND PARTS OF EASTERN KANSAS/WESTERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will pose a risk of damaging wind gusts across parts of New England and the northern Mid-Atlantic States this afternoon. Severe storms will also be possible across much of North Dakota as well as eastern Kansas into western Missouri. ...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic States... Midday vapor imagery shows a fast-moving shortwave trough progressing eastward into Quebec. An associated cold front will move south-southeastward across New England this afternoon. Relatively hot/humid conditions ahead of the front will lead to widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms across southern New England and eastern portions of New York/Pennsylvania. These storms will track southeastward toward the coast through the early evening with damaging winds possible. ...Northern Plains including North Dakota... An upper ridge remains centered over the central Plains, with a weak southern-stream trough currently moving across Utah into Wyoming. Weak lift and increased mid-level moisture ahead of the system will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms by late afternoon across parts of eastern Montana and northeast Wyoming. Thermodynamic parameters are favorable for large hail in the stronger cells. It seems that these storms will tend to persist east-northeastward this evening and pose a risk of hail and locally damaging winds across North Dakota. ...Eastern Kansas/western Missouri... Regional WSR-88D VWP data continues to sample modestly enhanced low/mid-tropospheric flow in relation to a slow-moving MCV, notable from KEAX where 35-40 kt west-southwesterly flow persists between 3-5 km AGL. With a very moist air mass in place (low to middle 70s F surface dewpoints), intensifying storms could include supercells given some likely persistence of the enhanced flow field. Especially with a convectively reinforced surface boundary, a semi-focused corridor of damaging winds and brief tornado potential could evolve this afternoon into early evening. ...Northern California/western Nevada... Aside from the dry thunderstorm potential (see Fire Weather Day 1 Outlook), sufficient moisture/buoyancy may exist on the eastern and northern periphery of the slow-moving upper low, where mid-level temperatures (-12C at 500mb) are semi-cool, to allow for some hail and/or convectively enhanced wind gusts this afternoon through around sunset. ..Guyer/Supinie.. 07/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...NORTHERN PLAINS...AND PARTS OF EASTERN KANSAS/WESTERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will pose a risk of damaging wind gusts across parts of New England and the northern Mid-Atlantic States this afternoon. Severe storms will also be possible across much of North Dakota as well as eastern Kansas into western Missouri. ...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic States... Midday vapor imagery shows a fast-moving shortwave trough progressing eastward into Quebec. An associated cold front will move south-southeastward across New England this afternoon. Relatively hot/humid conditions ahead of the front will lead to widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms across southern New England and eastern portions of New York/Pennsylvania. These storms will track southeastward toward the coast through the early evening with damaging winds possible. ...Northern Plains including North Dakota... An upper ridge remains centered over the central Plains, with a weak southern-stream trough currently moving across Utah into Wyoming. Weak lift and increased mid-level moisture ahead of the system will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms by late afternoon across parts of eastern Montana and northeast Wyoming. Thermodynamic parameters are favorable for large hail in the stronger cells. It seems that these storms will tend to persist east-northeastward this evening and pose a risk of hail and locally damaging winds across North Dakota. ...Eastern Kansas/western Missouri... Regional WSR-88D VWP data continues to sample modestly enhanced low/mid-tropospheric flow in relation to a slow-moving MCV, notable from KEAX where 35-40 kt west-southwesterly flow persists between 3-5 km AGL. With a very moist air mass in place (low to middle 70s F surface dewpoints), intensifying storms could include supercells given some likely persistence of the enhanced flow field. Especially with a convectively reinforced surface boundary, a semi-focused corridor of damaging winds and brief tornado potential could evolve this afternoon into early evening. ...Northern California/western Nevada... Aside from the dry thunderstorm potential (see Fire Weather Day 1 Outlook), sufficient moisture/buoyancy may exist on the eastern and northern periphery of the slow-moving upper low, where mid-level temperatures (-12C at 500mb) are semi-cool, to allow for some hail and/or convectively enhanced wind gusts this afternoon through around sunset. ..Guyer/Supinie.. 07/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...NORTHERN PLAINS...AND PARTS OF EASTERN KANSAS/WESTERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will pose a risk of damaging wind gusts across parts of New England and the northern Mid-Atlantic States this afternoon. Severe storms will also be possible across much of North Dakota as well as eastern Kansas into western Missouri. ...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic States... Midday vapor imagery shows a fast-moving shortwave trough progressing eastward into Quebec. An associated cold front will move south-southeastward across New England this afternoon. Relatively hot/humid conditions ahead of the front will lead to widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms across southern New England and eastern portions of New York/Pennsylvania. These storms will track southeastward toward the coast through the early evening with damaging winds possible. ...Northern Plains including North Dakota... An upper ridge remains centered over the central Plains, with a weak southern-stream trough currently moving across Utah into Wyoming. Weak lift and increased mid-level moisture ahead of the system will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms by late afternoon across parts of eastern Montana and northeast Wyoming. Thermodynamic parameters are favorable for large hail in the stronger cells. It seems that these storms will tend to persist east-northeastward this evening and pose a risk of hail and locally damaging winds across North Dakota. ...Eastern Kansas/western Missouri... Regional WSR-88D VWP data continues to sample modestly enhanced low/mid-tropospheric flow in relation to a slow-moving MCV, notable from KEAX where 35-40 kt west-southwesterly flow persists between 3-5 km AGL. With a very moist air mass in place (low to middle 70s F surface dewpoints), intensifying storms could include supercells given some likely persistence of the enhanced flow field. Especially with a convectively reinforced surface boundary, a semi-focused corridor of damaging winds and brief tornado potential could evolve this afternoon into early evening. ...Northern California/western Nevada... Aside from the dry thunderstorm potential (see Fire Weather Day 1 Outlook), sufficient moisture/buoyancy may exist on the eastern and northern periphery of the slow-moving upper low, where mid-level temperatures (-12C at 500mb) are semi-cool, to allow for some hail and/or convectively enhanced wind gusts this afternoon through around sunset. ..Guyer/Supinie.. 07/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...NORTHERN PLAINS...AND PARTS OF EASTERN KANSAS/WESTERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will pose a risk of damaging wind gusts across parts of New England and the northern Mid-Atlantic States this afternoon. Severe storms will also be possible across much of North Dakota as well as eastern Kansas into western Missouri. ...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic States... Midday vapor imagery shows a fast-moving shortwave trough progressing eastward into Quebec. An associated cold front will move south-southeastward across New England this afternoon. Relatively hot/humid conditions ahead of the front will lead to widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms across southern New England and eastern portions of New York/Pennsylvania. These storms will track southeastward toward the coast through the early evening with damaging winds possible. ...Northern Plains including North Dakota... An upper ridge remains centered over the central Plains, with a weak southern-stream trough currently moving across Utah into Wyoming. Weak lift and increased mid-level moisture ahead of the system will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms by late afternoon across parts of eastern Montana and northeast Wyoming. Thermodynamic parameters are favorable for large hail in the stronger cells. It seems that these storms will tend to persist east-northeastward this evening and pose a risk of hail and locally damaging winds across North Dakota. ...Eastern Kansas/western Missouri... Regional WSR-88D VWP data continues to sample modestly enhanced low/mid-tropospheric flow in relation to a slow-moving MCV, notable from KEAX where 35-40 kt west-southwesterly flow persists between 3-5 km AGL. With a very moist air mass in place (low to middle 70s F surface dewpoints), intensifying storms could include supercells given some likely persistence of the enhanced flow field. Especially with a convectively reinforced surface boundary, a semi-focused corridor of damaging winds and brief tornado potential could evolve this afternoon into early evening. ...Northern California/western Nevada... Aside from the dry thunderstorm potential (see Fire Weather Day 1 Outlook), sufficient moisture/buoyancy may exist on the eastern and northern periphery of the slow-moving upper low, where mid-level temperatures (-12C at 500mb) are semi-cool, to allow for some hail and/or convectively enhanced wind gusts this afternoon through around sunset. ..Guyer/Supinie.. 07/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...NORTHERN PLAINS...AND PARTS OF EASTERN KANSAS/WESTERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will pose a risk of damaging wind gusts across parts of New England and the northern Mid-Atlantic States this afternoon. Severe storms will also be possible across much of North Dakota as well as eastern Kansas into western Missouri. ...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic States... Midday vapor imagery shows a fast-moving shortwave trough progressing eastward into Quebec. An associated cold front will move south-southeastward across New England this afternoon. Relatively hot/humid conditions ahead of the front will lead to widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms across southern New England and eastern portions of New York/Pennsylvania. These storms will track southeastward toward the coast through the early evening with damaging winds possible. ...Northern Plains including North Dakota... An upper ridge remains centered over the central Plains, with a weak southern-stream trough currently moving across Utah into Wyoming. Weak lift and increased mid-level moisture ahead of the system will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms by late afternoon across parts of eastern Montana and northeast Wyoming. Thermodynamic parameters are favorable for large hail in the stronger cells. It seems that these storms will tend to persist east-northeastward this evening and pose a risk of hail and locally damaging winds across North Dakota. ...Eastern Kansas/western Missouri... Regional WSR-88D VWP data continues to sample modestly enhanced low/mid-tropospheric flow in relation to a slow-moving MCV, notable from KEAX where 35-40 kt west-southwesterly flow persists between 3-5 km AGL. With a very moist air mass in place (low to middle 70s F surface dewpoints), intensifying storms could include supercells given some likely persistence of the enhanced flow field. Especially with a convectively reinforced surface boundary, a semi-focused corridor of damaging winds and brief tornado potential could evolve this afternoon into early evening. ...Northern California/western Nevada... Aside from the dry thunderstorm potential (see Fire Weather Day 1 Outlook), sufficient moisture/buoyancy may exist on the eastern and northern periphery of the slow-moving upper low, where mid-level temperatures (-12C at 500mb) are semi-cool, to allow for some hail and/or convectively enhanced wind gusts this afternoon through around sunset. ..Guyer/Supinie.. 07/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...NORTHERN PLAINS...AND PARTS OF EASTERN KANSAS/WESTERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will pose a risk of damaging wind gusts across parts of New England and the northern Mid-Atlantic States this afternoon. Severe storms will also be possible across much of North Dakota as well as eastern Kansas into western Missouri. ...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic States... Midday vapor imagery shows a fast-moving shortwave trough progressing eastward into Quebec. An associated cold front will move south-southeastward across New England this afternoon. Relatively hot/humid conditions ahead of the front will lead to widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms across southern New England and eastern portions of New York/Pennsylvania. These storms will track southeastward toward the coast through the early evening with damaging winds possible. ...Northern Plains including North Dakota... An upper ridge remains centered over the central Plains, with a weak southern-stream trough currently moving across Utah into Wyoming. Weak lift and increased mid-level moisture ahead of the system will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms by late afternoon across parts of eastern Montana and northeast Wyoming. Thermodynamic parameters are favorable for large hail in the stronger cells. It seems that these storms will tend to persist east-northeastward this evening and pose a risk of hail and locally damaging winds across North Dakota. ...Eastern Kansas/western Missouri... Regional WSR-88D VWP data continues to sample modestly enhanced low/mid-tropospheric flow in relation to a slow-moving MCV, notable from KEAX where 35-40 kt west-southwesterly flow persists between 3-5 km AGL. With a very moist air mass in place (low to middle 70s F surface dewpoints), intensifying storms could include supercells given some likely persistence of the enhanced flow field. Especially with a convectively reinforced surface boundary, a semi-focused corridor of damaging winds and brief tornado potential could evolve this afternoon into early evening. ...Northern California/western Nevada... Aside from the dry thunderstorm potential (see Fire Weather Day 1 Outlook), sufficient moisture/buoyancy may exist on the eastern and northern periphery of the slow-moving upper low, where mid-level temperatures (-12C at 500mb) are semi-cool, to allow for some hail and/or convectively enhanced wind gusts this afternoon through around sunset. ..Guyer/Supinie.. 07/25/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1106 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z ...Update... No changes were required for today's forecast. Please see the previous discussion for more information. ..Barnes.. 07/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025/ ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will prevail over the central and eastern U.S. while an upper trough lingers over the Interior West today. Adequate lift ahead of the upper trough amid appreciable mid-level moisture and buoyancy will support isolated to scattered thunderstorm development over the Sierra toward the Northern Rockies by the afternoon. Forecast soundings in this region depict inverted-v profiles, with 0.25-0.75 inch PWATs, promoting a mix of wet and dry high-based thunderstorms. Given dry fuels in the region, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights seem necessary. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1106 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z ...Update... No changes were required for today's forecast. Please see the previous discussion for more information. ..Barnes.. 07/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025/ ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will prevail over the central and eastern U.S. while an upper trough lingers over the Interior West today. Adequate lift ahead of the upper trough amid appreciable mid-level moisture and buoyancy will support isolated to scattered thunderstorm development over the Sierra toward the Northern Rockies by the afternoon. Forecast soundings in this region depict inverted-v profiles, with 0.25-0.75 inch PWATs, promoting a mix of wet and dry high-based thunderstorms. Given dry fuels in the region, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights seem necessary. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1106 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z ...Update... No changes were required for today's forecast. Please see the previous discussion for more information. ..Barnes.. 07/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025/ ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will prevail over the central and eastern U.S. while an upper trough lingers over the Interior West today. Adequate lift ahead of the upper trough amid appreciable mid-level moisture and buoyancy will support isolated to scattered thunderstorm development over the Sierra toward the Northern Rockies by the afternoon. Forecast soundings in this region depict inverted-v profiles, with 0.25-0.75 inch PWATs, promoting a mix of wet and dry high-based thunderstorms. Given dry fuels in the region, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights seem necessary. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1106 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z ...Update... No changes were required for today's forecast. Please see the previous discussion for more information. ..Barnes.. 07/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025/ ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will prevail over the central and eastern U.S. while an upper trough lingers over the Interior West today. Adequate lift ahead of the upper trough amid appreciable mid-level moisture and buoyancy will support isolated to scattered thunderstorm development over the Sierra toward the Northern Rockies by the afternoon. Forecast soundings in this region depict inverted-v profiles, with 0.25-0.75 inch PWATs, promoting a mix of wet and dry high-based thunderstorms. Given dry fuels in the region, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights seem necessary. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1106 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z ...Update... No changes were required for today's forecast. Please see the previous discussion for more information. ..Barnes.. 07/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025/ ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will prevail over the central and eastern U.S. while an upper trough lingers over the Interior West today. Adequate lift ahead of the upper trough amid appreciable mid-level moisture and buoyancy will support isolated to scattered thunderstorm development over the Sierra toward the Northern Rockies by the afternoon. Forecast soundings in this region depict inverted-v profiles, with 0.25-0.75 inch PWATs, promoting a mix of wet and dry high-based thunderstorms. Given dry fuels in the region, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights seem necessary. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1106 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z ...Update... No changes were required for today's forecast. Please see the previous discussion for more information. ..Barnes.. 07/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025/ ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will prevail over the central and eastern U.S. while an upper trough lingers over the Interior West today. Adequate lift ahead of the upper trough amid appreciable mid-level moisture and buoyancy will support isolated to scattered thunderstorm development over the Sierra toward the Northern Rockies by the afternoon. Forecast soundings in this region depict inverted-v profiles, with 0.25-0.75 inch PWATs, promoting a mix of wet and dry high-based thunderstorms. Given dry fuels in the region, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights seem necessary. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1106 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z ...Update... No changes were required for today's forecast. Please see the previous discussion for more information. ..Barnes.. 07/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025/ ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will prevail over the central and eastern U.S. while an upper trough lingers over the Interior West today. Adequate lift ahead of the upper trough amid appreciable mid-level moisture and buoyancy will support isolated to scattered thunderstorm development over the Sierra toward the Northern Rockies by the afternoon. Forecast soundings in this region depict inverted-v profiles, with 0.25-0.75 inch PWATs, promoting a mix of wet and dry high-based thunderstorms. Given dry fuels in the region, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights seem necessary. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1106 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z ...Update... No changes were required for today's forecast. Please see the previous discussion for more information. ..Barnes.. 07/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025/ ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will prevail over the central and eastern U.S. while an upper trough lingers over the Interior West today. Adequate lift ahead of the upper trough amid appreciable mid-level moisture and buoyancy will support isolated to scattered thunderstorm development over the Sierra toward the Northern Rockies by the afternoon. Forecast soundings in this region depict inverted-v profiles, with 0.25-0.75 inch PWATs, promoting a mix of wet and dry high-based thunderstorms. Given dry fuels in the region, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights seem necessary. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more