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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0240 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...Update... The Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area and Elevated area for dry and windy conditions were expanded for Saturday. The latest hi-res trends and forecast soundings suggest more coverage of high based convection will accompany the slow moving shortwave trough traversing CA. A small area of Scattered Dry Thunderstorms was considered for northern NV, where QPF output may generally remain below 0.25" over receptive fuels. However, given the weak steering flow expected with the thunderstorms it was not included for the time being. Farther south across portions of the Southwest and central Rockies, a deeply mixed boundary layer will promote momentum transfer of stronger flow aloft. Sustained wind speeds may exceed 20-25 mph for a few locations across portions of northwest AZ and southwest UT, where very dry mid to lower tropospheric profiles are expected atop receptive fuels. A Critical area was considered for these regions, but the extent and duration of the higher wind speeds precludes the need for an upgrade at this time. ..Barnes.. 07/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0145 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025/ ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will remain in place from the Great Plains eastward, as a mid-level trough continues to meander over the Interior West tomorrow (Saturday). During the day, multiple mid-level impulses will traverse the upper trough and crest the ridge. One mid-level impulse should graze the Great Basin, promoting enough upper support for dry and windy conditions over the Four Corners. 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds atop 10-20 percent RH and receptive fuels warrants the introduction of Elevated highlights. Furthermore, mid-level moisture will still linger over the northern Great Basin toward the northern Rockies, which will be lifted by the aforementioned mid-level impulse to support isolated to scattered high-based thunderstorm development. A mix of dry and wet thunderstorms will develop atop dry fuels, where ignition potential will exist, hence the introduction of isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0240 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...Update... The Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area and Elevated area for dry and windy conditions were expanded for Saturday. The latest hi-res trends and forecast soundings suggest more coverage of high based convection will accompany the slow moving shortwave trough traversing CA. A small area of Scattered Dry Thunderstorms was considered for northern NV, where QPF output may generally remain below 0.25" over receptive fuels. However, given the weak steering flow expected with the thunderstorms it was not included for the time being. Farther south across portions of the Southwest and central Rockies, a deeply mixed boundary layer will promote momentum transfer of stronger flow aloft. Sustained wind speeds may exceed 20-25 mph for a few locations across portions of northwest AZ and southwest UT, where very dry mid to lower tropospheric profiles are expected atop receptive fuels. A Critical area was considered for these regions, but the extent and duration of the higher wind speeds precludes the need for an upgrade at this time. ..Barnes.. 07/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0145 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025/ ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will remain in place from the Great Plains eastward, as a mid-level trough continues to meander over the Interior West tomorrow (Saturday). During the day, multiple mid-level impulses will traverse the upper trough and crest the ridge. One mid-level impulse should graze the Great Basin, promoting enough upper support for dry and windy conditions over the Four Corners. 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds atop 10-20 percent RH and receptive fuels warrants the introduction of Elevated highlights. Furthermore, mid-level moisture will still linger over the northern Great Basin toward the northern Rockies, which will be lifted by the aforementioned mid-level impulse to support isolated to scattered high-based thunderstorm development. A mix of dry and wet thunderstorms will develop atop dry fuels, where ignition potential will exist, hence the introduction of isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0542 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 542 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..JEWELL..07/25/25 ATTN...WFO...OKX...BOX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 542 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS CTC001-003-005-007-009-011-013-015-252040- CT . CONNECTICUT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FAIRFIELD HARTFORD LITCHFIELD MIDDLESEX NEW HAVEN NEW LONDON TOLLAND WINDHAM DEC003-252040- DE . DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE NEW CASTLE MAC001-005-007-013-015-019-021-023-025-027-252040- MA . MASSACHUSETTS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARNSTABLE BRISTOL DUKES HAMPDEN HAMPSHIRE NANTUCKET NORFOLK PLYMOUTH SUFFOLK Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from the eastern Dakotas into the Upper Mississippi Valley as well as across portions of the Mid-Atlantic and New England region. ...Synopsis... An upper ridge currently over the Southeast will gradually shift west over the next 48-72 hours into the south-central U.S. Strong/severe thunderstorm chances will largely be focused on the north/northeastern periphery of the ridge as shortwave impulses embedded within strong westerly mid-level flow overspread buoyant air masses. ...Eastern Dakotas into the Upper MS Valley... Forecast confidence remains low for Sunday across the eastern Dakotas into portions of the upper MS Valley. A low-amplitude mid-level wave is forecast to round the apex of the mid-level ridge through the afternoon/evening across ND/MN. A residual MCS from overnight Saturday may accompany this wave, though the intensity of this MCS by Sunday morning remains uncertain. However, this will have a direct impact on thunderstorm development/evolution Sunday afternoon. Several deterministic solutions (most notably recent NAM and ECMWF runs) suggest either a re-intensification of the MCS and/or new convective development along an outflow boundary across MN by late afternoon. Given forecast MLCAPE of 3000-4000 J/kg and 30-40 knots of deep-layer wind shear, this activity could strengthen into a well-organized, severe MCS through the late evening hours as it propagates southeastward along a warm frontal zone into parts of IA and/or WI. Other solutions, including the high-res RRFS, depict a weaker early-morning MCS and more limited thunderstorm coverage through late evening. Ensemble guidance shows similarly dichotomous solutions. Severe risk probabilities were maintained as-is given then spread in solutions, but higher risk highlights will likely be needed if guidance begins to coalesce around the NAM/ECMWF solutions. ...Mid-Atlantic into parts of New England... A weak surface trough/cold front is forecast to push eastward across the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic region through peak heating. A moist air mass will likely remain in place through the weekend and will promote widespread MLCAPE values of at least 1000 J/kg along with limited capping. West/northwesterly flow aloft coupled with modest low-level winds should support adequate deep-layer wind shear for a few strong/severe thunderstorms as convection develops by mid/late afternoon. ..Moore.. 07/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from the eastern Dakotas into the Upper Mississippi Valley as well as across portions of the Mid-Atlantic and New England region. ...Synopsis... An upper ridge currently over the Southeast will gradually shift west over the next 48-72 hours into the south-central U.S. Strong/severe thunderstorm chances will largely be focused on the north/northeastern periphery of the ridge as shortwave impulses embedded within strong westerly mid-level flow overspread buoyant air masses. ...Eastern Dakotas into the Upper MS Valley... Forecast confidence remains low for Sunday across the eastern Dakotas into portions of the upper MS Valley. A low-amplitude mid-level wave is forecast to round the apex of the mid-level ridge through the afternoon/evening across ND/MN. A residual MCS from overnight Saturday may accompany this wave, though the intensity of this MCS by Sunday morning remains uncertain. However, this will have a direct impact on thunderstorm development/evolution Sunday afternoon. Several deterministic solutions (most notably recent NAM and ECMWF runs) suggest either a re-intensification of the MCS and/or new convective development along an outflow boundary across MN by late afternoon. Given forecast MLCAPE of 3000-4000 J/kg and 30-40 knots of deep-layer wind shear, this activity could strengthen into a well-organized, severe MCS through the late evening hours as it propagates southeastward along a warm frontal zone into parts of IA and/or WI. Other solutions, including the high-res RRFS, depict a weaker early-morning MCS and more limited thunderstorm coverage through late evening. Ensemble guidance shows similarly dichotomous solutions. Severe risk probabilities were maintained as-is given then spread in solutions, but higher risk highlights will likely be needed if guidance begins to coalesce around the NAM/ECMWF solutions. ...Mid-Atlantic into parts of New England... A weak surface trough/cold front is forecast to push eastward across the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic region through peak heating. A moist air mass will likely remain in place through the weekend and will promote widespread MLCAPE values of at least 1000 J/kg along with limited capping. West/northwesterly flow aloft coupled with modest low-level winds should support adequate deep-layer wind shear for a few strong/severe thunderstorms as convection develops by mid/late afternoon. ..Moore.. 07/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from the eastern Dakotas into the Upper Mississippi Valley as well as across portions of the Mid-Atlantic and New England region. ...Synopsis... An upper ridge currently over the Southeast will gradually shift west over the next 48-72 hours into the south-central U.S. Strong/severe thunderstorm chances will largely be focused on the north/northeastern periphery of the ridge as shortwave impulses embedded within strong westerly mid-level flow overspread buoyant air masses. ...Eastern Dakotas into the Upper MS Valley... Forecast confidence remains low for Sunday across the eastern Dakotas into portions of the upper MS Valley. A low-amplitude mid-level wave is forecast to round the apex of the mid-level ridge through the afternoon/evening across ND/MN. A residual MCS from overnight Saturday may accompany this wave, though the intensity of this MCS by Sunday morning remains uncertain. However, this will have a direct impact on thunderstorm development/evolution Sunday afternoon. Several deterministic solutions (most notably recent NAM and ECMWF runs) suggest either a re-intensification of the MCS and/or new convective development along an outflow boundary across MN by late afternoon. Given forecast MLCAPE of 3000-4000 J/kg and 30-40 knots of deep-layer wind shear, this activity could strengthen into a well-organized, severe MCS through the late evening hours as it propagates southeastward along a warm frontal zone into parts of IA and/or WI. Other solutions, including the high-res RRFS, depict a weaker early-morning MCS and more limited thunderstorm coverage through late evening. Ensemble guidance shows similarly dichotomous solutions. Severe risk probabilities were maintained as-is given then spread in solutions, but higher risk highlights will likely be needed if guidance begins to coalesce around the NAM/ECMWF solutions. ...Mid-Atlantic into parts of New England... A weak surface trough/cold front is forecast to push eastward across the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic region through peak heating. A moist air mass will likely remain in place through the weekend and will promote widespread MLCAPE values of at least 1000 J/kg along with limited capping. West/northwesterly flow aloft coupled with modest low-level winds should support adequate deep-layer wind shear for a few strong/severe thunderstorms as convection develops by mid/late afternoon. ..Moore.. 07/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from the eastern Dakotas into the Upper Mississippi Valley as well as across portions of the Mid-Atlantic and New England region. ...Synopsis... An upper ridge currently over the Southeast will gradually shift west over the next 48-72 hours into the south-central U.S. Strong/severe thunderstorm chances will largely be focused on the north/northeastern periphery of the ridge as shortwave impulses embedded within strong westerly mid-level flow overspread buoyant air masses. ...Eastern Dakotas into the Upper MS Valley... Forecast confidence remains low for Sunday across the eastern Dakotas into portions of the upper MS Valley. A low-amplitude mid-level wave is forecast to round the apex of the mid-level ridge through the afternoon/evening across ND/MN. A residual MCS from overnight Saturday may accompany this wave, though the intensity of this MCS by Sunday morning remains uncertain. However, this will have a direct impact on thunderstorm development/evolution Sunday afternoon. Several deterministic solutions (most notably recent NAM and ECMWF runs) suggest either a re-intensification of the MCS and/or new convective development along an outflow boundary across MN by late afternoon. Given forecast MLCAPE of 3000-4000 J/kg and 30-40 knots of deep-layer wind shear, this activity could strengthen into a well-organized, severe MCS through the late evening hours as it propagates southeastward along a warm frontal zone into parts of IA and/or WI. Other solutions, including the high-res RRFS, depict a weaker early-morning MCS and more limited thunderstorm coverage through late evening. Ensemble guidance shows similarly dichotomous solutions. Severe risk probabilities were maintained as-is given then spread in solutions, but higher risk highlights will likely be needed if guidance begins to coalesce around the NAM/ECMWF solutions. ...Mid-Atlantic into parts of New England... A weak surface trough/cold front is forecast to push eastward across the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic region through peak heating. A moist air mass will likely remain in place through the weekend and will promote widespread MLCAPE values of at least 1000 J/kg along with limited capping. West/northwesterly flow aloft coupled with modest low-level winds should support adequate deep-layer wind shear for a few strong/severe thunderstorms as convection develops by mid/late afternoon. ..Moore.. 07/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from the eastern Dakotas into the Upper Mississippi Valley as well as across portions of the Mid-Atlantic and New England region. ...Synopsis... An upper ridge currently over the Southeast will gradually shift west over the next 48-72 hours into the south-central U.S. Strong/severe thunderstorm chances will largely be focused on the north/northeastern periphery of the ridge as shortwave impulses embedded within strong westerly mid-level flow overspread buoyant air masses. ...Eastern Dakotas into the Upper MS Valley... Forecast confidence remains low for Sunday across the eastern Dakotas into portions of the upper MS Valley. A low-amplitude mid-level wave is forecast to round the apex of the mid-level ridge through the afternoon/evening across ND/MN. A residual MCS from overnight Saturday may accompany this wave, though the intensity of this MCS by Sunday morning remains uncertain. However, this will have a direct impact on thunderstorm development/evolution Sunday afternoon. Several deterministic solutions (most notably recent NAM and ECMWF runs) suggest either a re-intensification of the MCS and/or new convective development along an outflow boundary across MN by late afternoon. Given forecast MLCAPE of 3000-4000 J/kg and 30-40 knots of deep-layer wind shear, this activity could strengthen into a well-organized, severe MCS through the late evening hours as it propagates southeastward along a warm frontal zone into parts of IA and/or WI. Other solutions, including the high-res RRFS, depict a weaker early-morning MCS and more limited thunderstorm coverage through late evening. Ensemble guidance shows similarly dichotomous solutions. Severe risk probabilities were maintained as-is given then spread in solutions, but higher risk highlights will likely be needed if guidance begins to coalesce around the NAM/ECMWF solutions. ...Mid-Atlantic into parts of New England... A weak surface trough/cold front is forecast to push eastward across the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic region through peak heating. A moist air mass will likely remain in place through the weekend and will promote widespread MLCAPE values of at least 1000 J/kg along with limited capping. West/northwesterly flow aloft coupled with modest low-level winds should support adequate deep-layer wind shear for a few strong/severe thunderstorms as convection develops by mid/late afternoon. ..Moore.. 07/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from the eastern Dakotas into the Upper Mississippi Valley as well as across portions of the Mid-Atlantic and New England region. ...Synopsis... An upper ridge currently over the Southeast will gradually shift west over the next 48-72 hours into the south-central U.S. Strong/severe thunderstorm chances will largely be focused on the north/northeastern periphery of the ridge as shortwave impulses embedded within strong westerly mid-level flow overspread buoyant air masses. ...Eastern Dakotas into the Upper MS Valley... Forecast confidence remains low for Sunday across the eastern Dakotas into portions of the upper MS Valley. A low-amplitude mid-level wave is forecast to round the apex of the mid-level ridge through the afternoon/evening across ND/MN. A residual MCS from overnight Saturday may accompany this wave, though the intensity of this MCS by Sunday morning remains uncertain. However, this will have a direct impact on thunderstorm development/evolution Sunday afternoon. Several deterministic solutions (most notably recent NAM and ECMWF runs) suggest either a re-intensification of the MCS and/or new convective development along an outflow boundary across MN by late afternoon. Given forecast MLCAPE of 3000-4000 J/kg and 30-40 knots of deep-layer wind shear, this activity could strengthen into a well-organized, severe MCS through the late evening hours as it propagates southeastward along a warm frontal zone into parts of IA and/or WI. Other solutions, including the high-res RRFS, depict a weaker early-morning MCS and more limited thunderstorm coverage through late evening. Ensemble guidance shows similarly dichotomous solutions. Severe risk probabilities were maintained as-is given then spread in solutions, but higher risk highlights will likely be needed if guidance begins to coalesce around the NAM/ECMWF solutions. ...Mid-Atlantic into parts of New England... A weak surface trough/cold front is forecast to push eastward across the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic region through peak heating. A moist air mass will likely remain in place through the weekend and will promote widespread MLCAPE values of at least 1000 J/kg along with limited capping. West/northwesterly flow aloft coupled with modest low-level winds should support adequate deep-layer wind shear for a few strong/severe thunderstorms as convection develops by mid/late afternoon. ..Moore.. 07/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from the eastern Dakotas into the Upper Mississippi Valley as well as across portions of the Mid-Atlantic and New England region. ...Synopsis... An upper ridge currently over the Southeast will gradually shift west over the next 48-72 hours into the south-central U.S. Strong/severe thunderstorm chances will largely be focused on the north/northeastern periphery of the ridge as shortwave impulses embedded within strong westerly mid-level flow overspread buoyant air masses. ...Eastern Dakotas into the Upper MS Valley... Forecast confidence remains low for Sunday across the eastern Dakotas into portions of the upper MS Valley. A low-amplitude mid-level wave is forecast to round the apex of the mid-level ridge through the afternoon/evening across ND/MN. A residual MCS from overnight Saturday may accompany this wave, though the intensity of this MCS by Sunday morning remains uncertain. However, this will have a direct impact on thunderstorm development/evolution Sunday afternoon. Several deterministic solutions (most notably recent NAM and ECMWF runs) suggest either a re-intensification of the MCS and/or new convective development along an outflow boundary across MN by late afternoon. Given forecast MLCAPE of 3000-4000 J/kg and 30-40 knots of deep-layer wind shear, this activity could strengthen into a well-organized, severe MCS through the late evening hours as it propagates southeastward along a warm frontal zone into parts of IA and/or WI. Other solutions, including the high-res RRFS, depict a weaker early-morning MCS and more limited thunderstorm coverage through late evening. Ensemble guidance shows similarly dichotomous solutions. Severe risk probabilities were maintained as-is given then spread in solutions, but higher risk highlights will likely be needed if guidance begins to coalesce around the NAM/ECMWF solutions. ...Mid-Atlantic into parts of New England... A weak surface trough/cold front is forecast to push eastward across the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic region through peak heating. A moist air mass will likely remain in place through the weekend and will promote widespread MLCAPE values of at least 1000 J/kg along with limited capping. West/northwesterly flow aloft coupled with modest low-level winds should support adequate deep-layer wind shear for a few strong/severe thunderstorms as convection develops by mid/late afternoon. ..Moore.. 07/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from the eastern Dakotas into the Upper Mississippi Valley as well as across portions of the Mid-Atlantic and New England region. ...Synopsis... An upper ridge currently over the Southeast will gradually shift west over the next 48-72 hours into the south-central U.S. Strong/severe thunderstorm chances will largely be focused on the north/northeastern periphery of the ridge as shortwave impulses embedded within strong westerly mid-level flow overspread buoyant air masses. ...Eastern Dakotas into the Upper MS Valley... Forecast confidence remains low for Sunday across the eastern Dakotas into portions of the upper MS Valley. A low-amplitude mid-level wave is forecast to round the apex of the mid-level ridge through the afternoon/evening across ND/MN. A residual MCS from overnight Saturday may accompany this wave, though the intensity of this MCS by Sunday morning remains uncertain. However, this will have a direct impact on thunderstorm development/evolution Sunday afternoon. Several deterministic solutions (most notably recent NAM and ECMWF runs) suggest either a re-intensification of the MCS and/or new convective development along an outflow boundary across MN by late afternoon. Given forecast MLCAPE of 3000-4000 J/kg and 30-40 knots of deep-layer wind shear, this activity could strengthen into a well-organized, severe MCS through the late evening hours as it propagates southeastward along a warm frontal zone into parts of IA and/or WI. Other solutions, including the high-res RRFS, depict a weaker early-morning MCS and more limited thunderstorm coverage through late evening. Ensemble guidance shows similarly dichotomous solutions. Severe risk probabilities were maintained as-is given then spread in solutions, but higher risk highlights will likely be needed if guidance begins to coalesce around the NAM/ECMWF solutions. ...Mid-Atlantic into parts of New England... A weak surface trough/cold front is forecast to push eastward across the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic region through peak heating. A moist air mass will likely remain in place through the weekend and will promote widespread MLCAPE values of at least 1000 J/kg along with limited capping. West/northwesterly flow aloft coupled with modest low-level winds should support adequate deep-layer wind shear for a few strong/severe thunderstorms as convection develops by mid/late afternoon. ..Moore.. 07/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from the eastern Dakotas into the Upper Mississippi Valley as well as across portions of the Mid-Atlantic and New England region. ...Synopsis... An upper ridge currently over the Southeast will gradually shift west over the next 48-72 hours into the south-central U.S. Strong/severe thunderstorm chances will largely be focused on the north/northeastern periphery of the ridge as shortwave impulses embedded within strong westerly mid-level flow overspread buoyant air masses. ...Eastern Dakotas into the Upper MS Valley... Forecast confidence remains low for Sunday across the eastern Dakotas into portions of the upper MS Valley. A low-amplitude mid-level wave is forecast to round the apex of the mid-level ridge through the afternoon/evening across ND/MN. A residual MCS from overnight Saturday may accompany this wave, though the intensity of this MCS by Sunday morning remains uncertain. However, this will have a direct impact on thunderstorm development/evolution Sunday afternoon. Several deterministic solutions (most notably recent NAM and ECMWF runs) suggest either a re-intensification of the MCS and/or new convective development along an outflow boundary across MN by late afternoon. Given forecast MLCAPE of 3000-4000 J/kg and 30-40 knots of deep-layer wind shear, this activity could strengthen into a well-organized, severe MCS through the late evening hours as it propagates southeastward along a warm frontal zone into parts of IA and/or WI. Other solutions, including the high-res RRFS, depict a weaker early-morning MCS and more limited thunderstorm coverage through late evening. Ensemble guidance shows similarly dichotomous solutions. Severe risk probabilities were maintained as-is given then spread in solutions, but higher risk highlights will likely be needed if guidance begins to coalesce around the NAM/ECMWF solutions. ...Mid-Atlantic into parts of New England... A weak surface trough/cold front is forecast to push eastward across the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic region through peak heating. A moist air mass will likely remain in place through the weekend and will promote widespread MLCAPE values of at least 1000 J/kg along with limited capping. West/northwesterly flow aloft coupled with modest low-level winds should support adequate deep-layer wind shear for a few strong/severe thunderstorms as convection develops by mid/late afternoon. ..Moore.. 07/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from the eastern Dakotas into the Upper Mississippi Valley as well as across portions of the Mid-Atlantic and New England region. ...Synopsis... An upper ridge currently over the Southeast will gradually shift west over the next 48-72 hours into the south-central U.S. Strong/severe thunderstorm chances will largely be focused on the north/northeastern periphery of the ridge as shortwave impulses embedded within strong westerly mid-level flow overspread buoyant air masses. ...Eastern Dakotas into the Upper MS Valley... Forecast confidence remains low for Sunday across the eastern Dakotas into portions of the upper MS Valley. A low-amplitude mid-level wave is forecast to round the apex of the mid-level ridge through the afternoon/evening across ND/MN. A residual MCS from overnight Saturday may accompany this wave, though the intensity of this MCS by Sunday morning remains uncertain. However, this will have a direct impact on thunderstorm development/evolution Sunday afternoon. Several deterministic solutions (most notably recent NAM and ECMWF runs) suggest either a re-intensification of the MCS and/or new convective development along an outflow boundary across MN by late afternoon. Given forecast MLCAPE of 3000-4000 J/kg and 30-40 knots of deep-layer wind shear, this activity could strengthen into a well-organized, severe MCS through the late evening hours as it propagates southeastward along a warm frontal zone into parts of IA and/or WI. Other solutions, including the high-res RRFS, depict a weaker early-morning MCS and more limited thunderstorm coverage through late evening. Ensemble guidance shows similarly dichotomous solutions. Severe risk probabilities were maintained as-is given then spread in solutions, but higher risk highlights will likely be needed if guidance begins to coalesce around the NAM/ECMWF solutions. ...Mid-Atlantic into parts of New England... A weak surface trough/cold front is forecast to push eastward across the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic region through peak heating. A moist air mass will likely remain in place through the weekend and will promote widespread MLCAPE values of at least 1000 J/kg along with limited capping. West/northwesterly flow aloft coupled with modest low-level winds should support adequate deep-layer wind shear for a few strong/severe thunderstorms as convection develops by mid/late afternoon. ..Moore.. 07/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from the eastern Dakotas into the Upper Mississippi Valley as well as across portions of the Mid-Atlantic and New England region. ...Synopsis... An upper ridge currently over the Southeast will gradually shift west over the next 48-72 hours into the south-central U.S. Strong/severe thunderstorm chances will largely be focused on the north/northeastern periphery of the ridge as shortwave impulses embedded within strong westerly mid-level flow overspread buoyant air masses. ...Eastern Dakotas into the Upper MS Valley... Forecast confidence remains low for Sunday across the eastern Dakotas into portions of the upper MS Valley. A low-amplitude mid-level wave is forecast to round the apex of the mid-level ridge through the afternoon/evening across ND/MN. A residual MCS from overnight Saturday may accompany this wave, though the intensity of this MCS by Sunday morning remains uncertain. However, this will have a direct impact on thunderstorm development/evolution Sunday afternoon. Several deterministic solutions (most notably recent NAM and ECMWF runs) suggest either a re-intensification of the MCS and/or new convective development along an outflow boundary across MN by late afternoon. Given forecast MLCAPE of 3000-4000 J/kg and 30-40 knots of deep-layer wind shear, this activity could strengthen into a well-organized, severe MCS through the late evening hours as it propagates southeastward along a warm frontal zone into parts of IA and/or WI. Other solutions, including the high-res RRFS, depict a weaker early-morning MCS and more limited thunderstorm coverage through late evening. Ensemble guidance shows similarly dichotomous solutions. Severe risk probabilities were maintained as-is given then spread in solutions, but higher risk highlights will likely be needed if guidance begins to coalesce around the NAM/ECMWF solutions. ...Mid-Atlantic into parts of New England... A weak surface trough/cold front is forecast to push eastward across the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic region through peak heating. A moist air mass will likely remain in place through the weekend and will promote widespread MLCAPE values of at least 1000 J/kg along with limited capping. West/northwesterly flow aloft coupled with modest low-level winds should support adequate deep-layer wind shear for a few strong/severe thunderstorms as convection develops by mid/late afternoon. ..Moore.. 07/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from the eastern Dakotas into the Upper Mississippi Valley as well as across portions of the Mid-Atlantic and New England region. ...Synopsis... An upper ridge currently over the Southeast will gradually shift west over the next 48-72 hours into the south-central U.S. Strong/severe thunderstorm chances will largely be focused on the north/northeastern periphery of the ridge as shortwave impulses embedded within strong westerly mid-level flow overspread buoyant air masses. ...Eastern Dakotas into the Upper MS Valley... Forecast confidence remains low for Sunday across the eastern Dakotas into portions of the upper MS Valley. A low-amplitude mid-level wave is forecast to round the apex of the mid-level ridge through the afternoon/evening across ND/MN. A residual MCS from overnight Saturday may accompany this wave, though the intensity of this MCS by Sunday morning remains uncertain. However, this will have a direct impact on thunderstorm development/evolution Sunday afternoon. Several deterministic solutions (most notably recent NAM and ECMWF runs) suggest either a re-intensification of the MCS and/or new convective development along an outflow boundary across MN by late afternoon. Given forecast MLCAPE of 3000-4000 J/kg and 30-40 knots of deep-layer wind shear, this activity could strengthen into a well-organized, severe MCS through the late evening hours as it propagates southeastward along a warm frontal zone into parts of IA and/or WI. Other solutions, including the high-res RRFS, depict a weaker early-morning MCS and more limited thunderstorm coverage through late evening. Ensemble guidance shows similarly dichotomous solutions. Severe risk probabilities were maintained as-is given then spread in solutions, but higher risk highlights will likely be needed if guidance begins to coalesce around the NAM/ECMWF solutions. ...Mid-Atlantic into parts of New England... A weak surface trough/cold front is forecast to push eastward across the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic region through peak heating. A moist air mass will likely remain in place through the weekend and will promote widespread MLCAPE values of at least 1000 J/kg along with limited capping. West/northwesterly flow aloft coupled with modest low-level winds should support adequate deep-layer wind shear for a few strong/severe thunderstorms as convection develops by mid/late afternoon. ..Moore.. 07/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from the eastern Dakotas into the Upper Mississippi Valley as well as across portions of the Mid-Atlantic and New England region. ...Synopsis... An upper ridge currently over the Southeast will gradually shift west over the next 48-72 hours into the south-central U.S. Strong/severe thunderstorm chances will largely be focused on the north/northeastern periphery of the ridge as shortwave impulses embedded within strong westerly mid-level flow overspread buoyant air masses. ...Eastern Dakotas into the Upper MS Valley... Forecast confidence remains low for Sunday across the eastern Dakotas into portions of the upper MS Valley. A low-amplitude mid-level wave is forecast to round the apex of the mid-level ridge through the afternoon/evening across ND/MN. A residual MCS from overnight Saturday may accompany this wave, though the intensity of this MCS by Sunday morning remains uncertain. However, this will have a direct impact on thunderstorm development/evolution Sunday afternoon. Several deterministic solutions (most notably recent NAM and ECMWF runs) suggest either a re-intensification of the MCS and/or new convective development along an outflow boundary across MN by late afternoon. Given forecast MLCAPE of 3000-4000 J/kg and 30-40 knots of deep-layer wind shear, this activity could strengthen into a well-organized, severe MCS through the late evening hours as it propagates southeastward along a warm frontal zone into parts of IA and/or WI. Other solutions, including the high-res RRFS, depict a weaker early-morning MCS and more limited thunderstorm coverage through late evening. Ensemble guidance shows similarly dichotomous solutions. Severe risk probabilities were maintained as-is given then spread in solutions, but higher risk highlights will likely be needed if guidance begins to coalesce around the NAM/ECMWF solutions. ...Mid-Atlantic into parts of New England... A weak surface trough/cold front is forecast to push eastward across the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic region through peak heating. A moist air mass will likely remain in place through the weekend and will promote widespread MLCAPE values of at least 1000 J/kg along with limited capping. West/northwesterly flow aloft coupled with modest low-level winds should support adequate deep-layer wind shear for a few strong/severe thunderstorms as convection develops by mid/late afternoon. ..Moore.. 07/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from the eastern Dakotas into the Upper Mississippi Valley as well as across portions of the Mid-Atlantic and New England region. ...Synopsis... An upper ridge currently over the Southeast will gradually shift west over the next 48-72 hours into the south-central U.S. Strong/severe thunderstorm chances will largely be focused on the north/northeastern periphery of the ridge as shortwave impulses embedded within strong westerly mid-level flow overspread buoyant air masses. ...Eastern Dakotas into the Upper MS Valley... Forecast confidence remains low for Sunday across the eastern Dakotas into portions of the upper MS Valley. A low-amplitude mid-level wave is forecast to round the apex of the mid-level ridge through the afternoon/evening across ND/MN. A residual MCS from overnight Saturday may accompany this wave, though the intensity of this MCS by Sunday morning remains uncertain. However, this will have a direct impact on thunderstorm development/evolution Sunday afternoon. Several deterministic solutions (most notably recent NAM and ECMWF runs) suggest either a re-intensification of the MCS and/or new convective development along an outflow boundary across MN by late afternoon. Given forecast MLCAPE of 3000-4000 J/kg and 30-40 knots of deep-layer wind shear, this activity could strengthen into a well-organized, severe MCS through the late evening hours as it propagates southeastward along a warm frontal zone into parts of IA and/or WI. Other solutions, including the high-res RRFS, depict a weaker early-morning MCS and more limited thunderstorm coverage through late evening. Ensemble guidance shows similarly dichotomous solutions. Severe risk probabilities were maintained as-is given then spread in solutions, but higher risk highlights will likely be needed if guidance begins to coalesce around the NAM/ECMWF solutions. ...Mid-Atlantic into parts of New England... A weak surface trough/cold front is forecast to push eastward across the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic region through peak heating. A moist air mass will likely remain in place through the weekend and will promote widespread MLCAPE values of at least 1000 J/kg along with limited capping. West/northwesterly flow aloft coupled with modest low-level winds should support adequate deep-layer wind shear for a few strong/severe thunderstorms as convection develops by mid/late afternoon. ..Moore.. 07/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from the eastern Dakotas into the Upper Mississippi Valley as well as across portions of the Mid-Atlantic and New England region. ...Synopsis... An upper ridge currently over the Southeast will gradually shift west over the next 48-72 hours into the south-central U.S. Strong/severe thunderstorm chances will largely be focused on the north/northeastern periphery of the ridge as shortwave impulses embedded within strong westerly mid-level flow overspread buoyant air masses. ...Eastern Dakotas into the Upper MS Valley... Forecast confidence remains low for Sunday across the eastern Dakotas into portions of the upper MS Valley. A low-amplitude mid-level wave is forecast to round the apex of the mid-level ridge through the afternoon/evening across ND/MN. A residual MCS from overnight Saturday may accompany this wave, though the intensity of this MCS by Sunday morning remains uncertain. However, this will have a direct impact on thunderstorm development/evolution Sunday afternoon. Several deterministic solutions (most notably recent NAM and ECMWF runs) suggest either a re-intensification of the MCS and/or new convective development along an outflow boundary across MN by late afternoon. Given forecast MLCAPE of 3000-4000 J/kg and 30-40 knots of deep-layer wind shear, this activity could strengthen into a well-organized, severe MCS through the late evening hours as it propagates southeastward along a warm frontal zone into parts of IA and/or WI. Other solutions, including the high-res RRFS, depict a weaker early-morning MCS and more limited thunderstorm coverage through late evening. Ensemble guidance shows similarly dichotomous solutions. Severe risk probabilities were maintained as-is given then spread in solutions, but higher risk highlights will likely be needed if guidance begins to coalesce around the NAM/ECMWF solutions. ...Mid-Atlantic into parts of New England... A weak surface trough/cold front is forecast to push eastward across the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic region through peak heating. A moist air mass will likely remain in place through the weekend and will promote widespread MLCAPE values of at least 1000 J/kg along with limited capping. West/northwesterly flow aloft coupled with modest low-level winds should support adequate deep-layer wind shear for a few strong/severe thunderstorms as convection develops by mid/late afternoon. ..Moore.. 07/25/2025 Read more

MD 1777 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR FROM EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
Mesoscale Discussion 1777 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1205 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Areas affected...from eastern Pennsylvania into southern New England Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 251705Z - 251830Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Scattered storms will develop after 19Z from eastern Pennsylvania into southern New England, with increasing coverage through about 00Z. Some storms may produce damaging gusts later this afternoon. DISCUSSION...A pre-frontal surface trough will deepen this afternoon within a zone of strong heating extending from southern New England southwestward across PA/NJ. Within this zone, a moist air mass remains with PWAT of 1.75 to 2.00". Although shear is marginal for organized severe storms at or below 35 kt, the combination of favorable timing with peak heating, steep boundary layer lapse rates and mean winds of 30-40 kt through a deep layer suggest a few corridors of aggregating storms producing strong to locally severe gusts. ..Jewell/Guyer.. 07/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP... LAT...LON 41617043 41367081 41037127 40267261 39727351 39517424 39867538 40017584 40447624 40767643 41257634 41407583 41557505 41667453 41877373 42167277 42527166 42827075 42717051 42447026 42067011 41617043 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH Read more

WW 0542 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0542 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more