Aggregator

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0453 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 021200Z ...Synopsis... A subtropical ridge will begin to expand over much of the central and southern CONUS into early next week, while troughing continues over the Pacific. Deepening south-southwesterly flow will accompany this pattern from southern CA into the Pacific Northwest and Great Basin through at least mid week. ...D3/Sunday... A couple of mid-level perturbations will continue to impact the northern Sierra, northern Great Basin, and portions of the Pacific Northwest. Ascent and moisture associated with these features, in addition to orographic lift, will likely support low shower and thunderstorm chances across these regions. A low probability area for dry thunderstorms was considered mainly for the northern Sierra and southern OR east of the Cascades, but will not be introduced into the forecast at this time given a lack of confidence in lower PWAT values. Localized hot, dry, and breezy conditions are expected across the Southwest, Great Basin, and portions of the central Rockies. However, lower overall wind speeds preclude the need for any low critical probability areas for the time being. ...D4/Monday-D7/Thursday... Chances of showers and thunderstorms will continue into at least D7/Thursday from northern CA, into the Pacific Northwest, and northern Rockies downstream of a persistent Pacific trough. A slow increase in low to mid-level moisture each day should limit the opportunity for dry lightning strikes, although an initial threat of this may exist early in the week. ..Barnes.. 07/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0453 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 021200Z ...Synopsis... A subtropical ridge will begin to expand over much of the central and southern CONUS into early next week, while troughing continues over the Pacific. Deepening south-southwesterly flow will accompany this pattern from southern CA into the Pacific Northwest and Great Basin through at least mid week. ...D3/Sunday... A couple of mid-level perturbations will continue to impact the northern Sierra, northern Great Basin, and portions of the Pacific Northwest. Ascent and moisture associated with these features, in addition to orographic lift, will likely support low shower and thunderstorm chances across these regions. A low probability area for dry thunderstorms was considered mainly for the northern Sierra and southern OR east of the Cascades, but will not be introduced into the forecast at this time given a lack of confidence in lower PWAT values. Localized hot, dry, and breezy conditions are expected across the Southwest, Great Basin, and portions of the central Rockies. However, lower overall wind speeds preclude the need for any low critical probability areas for the time being. ...D4/Monday-D7/Thursday... Chances of showers and thunderstorms will continue into at least D7/Thursday from northern CA, into the Pacific Northwest, and northern Rockies downstream of a persistent Pacific trough. A slow increase in low to mid-level moisture each day should limit the opportunity for dry lightning strikes, although an initial threat of this may exist early in the week. ..Barnes.. 07/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0453 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 021200Z ...Synopsis... A subtropical ridge will begin to expand over much of the central and southern CONUS into early next week, while troughing continues over the Pacific. Deepening south-southwesterly flow will accompany this pattern from southern CA into the Pacific Northwest and Great Basin through at least mid week. ...D3/Sunday... A couple of mid-level perturbations will continue to impact the northern Sierra, northern Great Basin, and portions of the Pacific Northwest. Ascent and moisture associated with these features, in addition to orographic lift, will likely support low shower and thunderstorm chances across these regions. A low probability area for dry thunderstorms was considered mainly for the northern Sierra and southern OR east of the Cascades, but will not be introduced into the forecast at this time given a lack of confidence in lower PWAT values. Localized hot, dry, and breezy conditions are expected across the Southwest, Great Basin, and portions of the central Rockies. However, lower overall wind speeds preclude the need for any low critical probability areas for the time being. ...D4/Monday-D7/Thursday... Chances of showers and thunderstorms will continue into at least D7/Thursday from northern CA, into the Pacific Northwest, and northern Rockies downstream of a persistent Pacific trough. A slow increase in low to mid-level moisture each day should limit the opportunity for dry lightning strikes, although an initial threat of this may exist early in the week. ..Barnes.. 07/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0453 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 021200Z ...Synopsis... A subtropical ridge will begin to expand over much of the central and southern CONUS into early next week, while troughing continues over the Pacific. Deepening south-southwesterly flow will accompany this pattern from southern CA into the Pacific Northwest and Great Basin through at least mid week. ...D3/Sunday... A couple of mid-level perturbations will continue to impact the northern Sierra, northern Great Basin, and portions of the Pacific Northwest. Ascent and moisture associated with these features, in addition to orographic lift, will likely support low shower and thunderstorm chances across these regions. A low probability area for dry thunderstorms was considered mainly for the northern Sierra and southern OR east of the Cascades, but will not be introduced into the forecast at this time given a lack of confidence in lower PWAT values. Localized hot, dry, and breezy conditions are expected across the Southwest, Great Basin, and portions of the central Rockies. However, lower overall wind speeds preclude the need for any low critical probability areas for the time being. ...D4/Monday-D7/Thursday... Chances of showers and thunderstorms will continue into at least D7/Thursday from northern CA, into the Pacific Northwest, and northern Rockies downstream of a persistent Pacific trough. A slow increase in low to mid-level moisture each day should limit the opportunity for dry lightning strikes, although an initial threat of this may exist early in the week. ..Barnes.. 07/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0453 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 021200Z ...Synopsis... A subtropical ridge will begin to expand over much of the central and southern CONUS into early next week, while troughing continues over the Pacific. Deepening south-southwesterly flow will accompany this pattern from southern CA into the Pacific Northwest and Great Basin through at least mid week. ...D3/Sunday... A couple of mid-level perturbations will continue to impact the northern Sierra, northern Great Basin, and portions of the Pacific Northwest. Ascent and moisture associated with these features, in addition to orographic lift, will likely support low shower and thunderstorm chances across these regions. A low probability area for dry thunderstorms was considered mainly for the northern Sierra and southern OR east of the Cascades, but will not be introduced into the forecast at this time given a lack of confidence in lower PWAT values. Localized hot, dry, and breezy conditions are expected across the Southwest, Great Basin, and portions of the central Rockies. However, lower overall wind speeds preclude the need for any low critical probability areas for the time being. ...D4/Monday-D7/Thursday... Chances of showers and thunderstorms will continue into at least D7/Thursday from northern CA, into the Pacific Northwest, and northern Rockies downstream of a persistent Pacific trough. A slow increase in low to mid-level moisture each day should limit the opportunity for dry lightning strikes, although an initial threat of this may exist early in the week. ..Barnes.. 07/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0453 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 021200Z ...Synopsis... A subtropical ridge will begin to expand over much of the central and southern CONUS into early next week, while troughing continues over the Pacific. Deepening south-southwesterly flow will accompany this pattern from southern CA into the Pacific Northwest and Great Basin through at least mid week. ...D3/Sunday... A couple of mid-level perturbations will continue to impact the northern Sierra, northern Great Basin, and portions of the Pacific Northwest. Ascent and moisture associated with these features, in addition to orographic lift, will likely support low shower and thunderstorm chances across these regions. A low probability area for dry thunderstorms was considered mainly for the northern Sierra and southern OR east of the Cascades, but will not be introduced into the forecast at this time given a lack of confidence in lower PWAT values. Localized hot, dry, and breezy conditions are expected across the Southwest, Great Basin, and portions of the central Rockies. However, lower overall wind speeds preclude the need for any low critical probability areas for the time being. ...D4/Monday-D7/Thursday... Chances of showers and thunderstorms will continue into at least D7/Thursday from northern CA, into the Pacific Northwest, and northern Rockies downstream of a persistent Pacific trough. A slow increase in low to mid-level moisture each day should limit the opportunity for dry lightning strikes, although an initial threat of this may exist early in the week. ..Barnes.. 07/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0453 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 021200Z ...Synopsis... A subtropical ridge will begin to expand over much of the central and southern CONUS into early next week, while troughing continues over the Pacific. Deepening south-southwesterly flow will accompany this pattern from southern CA into the Pacific Northwest and Great Basin through at least mid week. ...D3/Sunday... A couple of mid-level perturbations will continue to impact the northern Sierra, northern Great Basin, and portions of the Pacific Northwest. Ascent and moisture associated with these features, in addition to orographic lift, will likely support low shower and thunderstorm chances across these regions. A low probability area for dry thunderstorms was considered mainly for the northern Sierra and southern OR east of the Cascades, but will not be introduced into the forecast at this time given a lack of confidence in lower PWAT values. Localized hot, dry, and breezy conditions are expected across the Southwest, Great Basin, and portions of the central Rockies. However, lower overall wind speeds preclude the need for any low critical probability areas for the time being. ...D4/Monday-D7/Thursday... Chances of showers and thunderstorms will continue into at least D7/Thursday from northern CA, into the Pacific Northwest, and northern Rockies downstream of a persistent Pacific trough. A slow increase in low to mid-level moisture each day should limit the opportunity for dry lightning strikes, although an initial threat of this may exist early in the week. ..Barnes.. 07/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0453 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 021200Z ...Synopsis... A subtropical ridge will begin to expand over much of the central and southern CONUS into early next week, while troughing continues over the Pacific. Deepening south-southwesterly flow will accompany this pattern from southern CA into the Pacific Northwest and Great Basin through at least mid week. ...D3/Sunday... A couple of mid-level perturbations will continue to impact the northern Sierra, northern Great Basin, and portions of the Pacific Northwest. Ascent and moisture associated with these features, in addition to orographic lift, will likely support low shower and thunderstorm chances across these regions. A low probability area for dry thunderstorms was considered mainly for the northern Sierra and southern OR east of the Cascades, but will not be introduced into the forecast at this time given a lack of confidence in lower PWAT values. Localized hot, dry, and breezy conditions are expected across the Southwest, Great Basin, and portions of the central Rockies. However, lower overall wind speeds preclude the need for any low critical probability areas for the time being. ...D4/Monday-D7/Thursday... Chances of showers and thunderstorms will continue into at least D7/Thursday from northern CA, into the Pacific Northwest, and northern Rockies downstream of a persistent Pacific trough. A slow increase in low to mid-level moisture each day should limit the opportunity for dry lightning strikes, although an initial threat of this may exist early in the week. ..Barnes.. 07/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0542 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 542 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE UNV TO 5 WSW CXY TO 30 ENE CXY TO 15 WSW ABE TO 20 E ABE TO 15 N JFK TO 30 WSW GON TO EWB TO 20 NNW HYA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1779 ..JEWELL..07/25/25 ATTN...WFO...OKX...BOX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 542 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS DEC003-252140- DE . DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE NEW CASTLE MAC001-007-019-252140- MA . MASSACHUSETTS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARNSTABLE DUKES NANTUCKET NJC001-005-007-011-015-017-019-021-023-025-029-033-035-039- 252140- NJ . NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0542 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 542 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE UNV TO 5 WSW CXY TO 30 ENE CXY TO 15 WSW ABE TO 20 E ABE TO 15 N JFK TO 30 WSW GON TO EWB TO 20 NNW HYA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1779 ..JEWELL..07/25/25 ATTN...WFO...OKX...BOX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 542 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS DEC003-252140- DE . DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE NEW CASTLE MAC001-007-019-252140- MA . MASSACHUSETTS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARNSTABLE DUKES NANTUCKET NJC001-005-007-011-015-017-019-021-023-025-029-033-035-039- 252140- NJ . NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0542 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 542 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE UNV TO 5 WSW CXY TO 30 ENE CXY TO 15 WSW ABE TO 20 E ABE TO 15 N JFK TO 30 WSW GON TO EWB TO 20 NNW HYA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1779 ..JEWELL..07/25/25 ATTN...WFO...OKX...BOX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 542 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS DEC003-252140- DE . DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE NEW CASTLE MAC001-007-019-252140- MA . MASSACHUSETTS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARNSTABLE DUKES NANTUCKET NJC001-005-007-011-015-017-019-021-023-025-029-033-035-039- 252140- NJ . NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0542 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 542 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE UNV TO 5 WSW CXY TO 30 ENE CXY TO 15 WSW ABE TO 20 E ABE TO 15 N JFK TO 30 WSW GON TO EWB TO 20 NNW HYA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1779 ..JEWELL..07/25/25 ATTN...WFO...OKX...BOX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 542 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS DEC003-252140- DE . DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE NEW CASTLE MAC001-007-019-252140- MA . MASSACHUSETTS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARNSTABLE DUKES NANTUCKET NJC001-005-007-011-015-017-019-021-023-025-029-033-035-039- 252140- NJ . NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 542 SEVERE TSTM CT DE MA NJ NY PA RI CW 251745Z - 260100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 542 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 145 PM EDT Fri Jul 25 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Connecticut Northern Delaware Massachusetts New Jersey Southeast New York Eastern Pennsylvania Rhode Island Coastal Waters * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 145 PM until 900 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely SUMMARY...Clusters of storms will continue to develop and intensify early this afternoon with damaging winds possible as storms move generally southeastward across the region through late afternoon and early evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 20 miles north northeast of New Bedford MA to 15 miles northwest of Harrisburg PA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 29025. ...Guyer Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Jul 25 20:02:09 UTC 2025.

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC...PARTS OF THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY...AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms remain capable of damaging wind gusts across parts of New England and the northern Mid-Atlantic States this afternoon/evening. Severe storms will also be possible across much of North Dakota as well as eastern Kansas into western Missouri. ...20z Update Northeast... Scattered to numerous thunderstorms ongoing ahead of a weak cold front across the Northeast and northern Mid Atlantic states will continue to pose a risk for isolated damaging gusts through this evening. The main focus for storm development/intensification along the front will continue to shift southeastward this afternoon. Trimming was done to the MRGL area mainly where the wind shift has already moved offshore. Otherwise the SLGT risk area was adjusted to better match the higher storm coverage and threat for damaging gusts. ...KS/MO... To the west, scattered severe storms should continue to develop/intensify this afternoon ahead of an MCV/shortwave trough across parts of KS and MO. Very moist surface conditions are present with mid 70s F dewpoints contributing to moderate destabilization despite weak low and mid-level lapse rates. Enhanced mid-level wind fields observed by area VADs should support a few stronger storms including supercells capable of damaging gusts and possibly brief tornadoes this afternoon and evening. ...Great Basin... Isolated to scattered high-based thunderstorms remain likely across northern CA and western NV this evening. Steep low-level lapse rates will favor dry microburst potential with these storms or any more persistent clusters of storms able to evolve. Have adjusted the MRGL risk slightly west to better capture storms developing near the higher terrain. Otherwise, see the previous discussion for additional information. ..Lyons.. 07/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1142 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025/ ...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic States... Midday vapor imagery shows a fast-moving shortwave trough progressing eastward into Quebec. An associated cold front will move south-southeastward across New England this afternoon. Relatively hot/humid conditions ahead of the front will lead to widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms across southern New England and eastern portions of New York/Pennsylvania. These storms will track southeastward toward the coast through the early evening with damaging winds possible. ...Northern Plains including North Dakota... An upper ridge remains centered over the central Plains, with a weak southern-stream trough currently moving across Utah into Wyoming. Weak lift and increased mid-level moisture ahead of the system will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms by late afternoon across parts of eastern Montana and northeast Wyoming. Thermodynamic parameters are favorable for large hail in the stronger cells. It seems that these storms will tend to persist east-northeastward this evening and pose a risk of hail and locally damaging winds across North Dakota. ...Eastern Kansas/western Missouri... Regional WSR-88D VWP data continues to sample modestly enhanced low/mid-tropospheric flow in relation to a slow-moving MCV, notable from KEAX where 35-40 kt west-southwesterly flow persists between 3-5 km AGL. With a very moist air mass in place (low to middle 70s F surface dewpoints), intensifying storms could include supercells given some likely persistence of the enhanced flow field. Especially with a convectively reinforced surface boundary, a semi-focused corridor of damaging winds and brief tornado potential could evolve this afternoon into early evening. ...Northern California/western Nevada... Aside from the dry thunderstorm potential (see Fire Weather Day 1 Outlook), sufficient moisture/buoyancy may exist on the eastern and northern periphery of the slow-moving upper low, where mid-level temperatures (-12C at 500mb) are semi-cool, to allow for some hail and/or convectively enhanced wind gusts this afternoon through around sunset. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC...PARTS OF THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY...AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms remain capable of damaging wind gusts across parts of New England and the northern Mid-Atlantic States this afternoon/evening. Severe storms will also be possible across much of North Dakota as well as eastern Kansas into western Missouri. ...20z Update Northeast... Scattered to numerous thunderstorms ongoing ahead of a weak cold front across the Northeast and northern Mid Atlantic states will continue to pose a risk for isolated damaging gusts through this evening. The main focus for storm development/intensification along the front will continue to shift southeastward this afternoon. Trimming was done to the MRGL area mainly where the wind shift has already moved offshore. Otherwise the SLGT risk area was adjusted to better match the higher storm coverage and threat for damaging gusts. ...KS/MO... To the west, scattered severe storms should continue to develop/intensify this afternoon ahead of an MCV/shortwave trough across parts of KS and MO. Very moist surface conditions are present with mid 70s F dewpoints contributing to moderate destabilization despite weak low and mid-level lapse rates. Enhanced mid-level wind fields observed by area VADs should support a few stronger storms including supercells capable of damaging gusts and possibly brief tornadoes this afternoon and evening. ...Great Basin... Isolated to scattered high-based thunderstorms remain likely across northern CA and western NV this evening. Steep low-level lapse rates will favor dry microburst potential with these storms or any more persistent clusters of storms able to evolve. Have adjusted the MRGL risk slightly west to better capture storms developing near the higher terrain. Otherwise, see the previous discussion for additional information. ..Lyons.. 07/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1142 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025/ ...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic States... Midday vapor imagery shows a fast-moving shortwave trough progressing eastward into Quebec. An associated cold front will move south-southeastward across New England this afternoon. Relatively hot/humid conditions ahead of the front will lead to widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms across southern New England and eastern portions of New York/Pennsylvania. These storms will track southeastward toward the coast through the early evening with damaging winds possible. ...Northern Plains including North Dakota... An upper ridge remains centered over the central Plains, with a weak southern-stream trough currently moving across Utah into Wyoming. Weak lift and increased mid-level moisture ahead of the system will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms by late afternoon across parts of eastern Montana and northeast Wyoming. Thermodynamic parameters are favorable for large hail in the stronger cells. It seems that these storms will tend to persist east-northeastward this evening and pose a risk of hail and locally damaging winds across North Dakota. ...Eastern Kansas/western Missouri... Regional WSR-88D VWP data continues to sample modestly enhanced low/mid-tropospheric flow in relation to a slow-moving MCV, notable from KEAX where 35-40 kt west-southwesterly flow persists between 3-5 km AGL. With a very moist air mass in place (low to middle 70s F surface dewpoints), intensifying storms could include supercells given some likely persistence of the enhanced flow field. Especially with a convectively reinforced surface boundary, a semi-focused corridor of damaging winds and brief tornado potential could evolve this afternoon into early evening. ...Northern California/western Nevada... Aside from the dry thunderstorm potential (see Fire Weather Day 1 Outlook), sufficient moisture/buoyancy may exist on the eastern and northern periphery of the slow-moving upper low, where mid-level temperatures (-12C at 500mb) are semi-cool, to allow for some hail and/or convectively enhanced wind gusts this afternoon through around sunset. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC...PARTS OF THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY...AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms remain capable of damaging wind gusts across parts of New England and the northern Mid-Atlantic States this afternoon/evening. Severe storms will also be possible across much of North Dakota as well as eastern Kansas into western Missouri. ...20z Update Northeast... Scattered to numerous thunderstorms ongoing ahead of a weak cold front across the Northeast and northern Mid Atlantic states will continue to pose a risk for isolated damaging gusts through this evening. The main focus for storm development/intensification along the front will continue to shift southeastward this afternoon. Trimming was done to the MRGL area mainly where the wind shift has already moved offshore. Otherwise the SLGT risk area was adjusted to better match the higher storm coverage and threat for damaging gusts. ...KS/MO... To the west, scattered severe storms should continue to develop/intensify this afternoon ahead of an MCV/shortwave trough across parts of KS and MO. Very moist surface conditions are present with mid 70s F dewpoints contributing to moderate destabilization despite weak low and mid-level lapse rates. Enhanced mid-level wind fields observed by area VADs should support a few stronger storms including supercells capable of damaging gusts and possibly brief tornadoes this afternoon and evening. ...Great Basin... Isolated to scattered high-based thunderstorms remain likely across northern CA and western NV this evening. Steep low-level lapse rates will favor dry microburst potential with these storms or any more persistent clusters of storms able to evolve. Have adjusted the MRGL risk slightly west to better capture storms developing near the higher terrain. Otherwise, see the previous discussion for additional information. ..Lyons.. 07/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1142 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025/ ...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic States... Midday vapor imagery shows a fast-moving shortwave trough progressing eastward into Quebec. An associated cold front will move south-southeastward across New England this afternoon. Relatively hot/humid conditions ahead of the front will lead to widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms across southern New England and eastern portions of New York/Pennsylvania. These storms will track southeastward toward the coast through the early evening with damaging winds possible. ...Northern Plains including North Dakota... An upper ridge remains centered over the central Plains, with a weak southern-stream trough currently moving across Utah into Wyoming. Weak lift and increased mid-level moisture ahead of the system will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms by late afternoon across parts of eastern Montana and northeast Wyoming. Thermodynamic parameters are favorable for large hail in the stronger cells. It seems that these storms will tend to persist east-northeastward this evening and pose a risk of hail and locally damaging winds across North Dakota. ...Eastern Kansas/western Missouri... Regional WSR-88D VWP data continues to sample modestly enhanced low/mid-tropospheric flow in relation to a slow-moving MCV, notable from KEAX where 35-40 kt west-southwesterly flow persists between 3-5 km AGL. With a very moist air mass in place (low to middle 70s F surface dewpoints), intensifying storms could include supercells given some likely persistence of the enhanced flow field. Especially with a convectively reinforced surface boundary, a semi-focused corridor of damaging winds and brief tornado potential could evolve this afternoon into early evening. ...Northern California/western Nevada... Aside from the dry thunderstorm potential (see Fire Weather Day 1 Outlook), sufficient moisture/buoyancy may exist on the eastern and northern periphery of the slow-moving upper low, where mid-level temperatures (-12C at 500mb) are semi-cool, to allow for some hail and/or convectively enhanced wind gusts this afternoon through around sunset. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC...PARTS OF THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY...AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms remain capable of damaging wind gusts across parts of New England and the northern Mid-Atlantic States this afternoon/evening. Severe storms will also be possible across much of North Dakota as well as eastern Kansas into western Missouri. ...20z Update Northeast... Scattered to numerous thunderstorms ongoing ahead of a weak cold front across the Northeast and northern Mid Atlantic states will continue to pose a risk for isolated damaging gusts through this evening. The main focus for storm development/intensification along the front will continue to shift southeastward this afternoon. Trimming was done to the MRGL area mainly where the wind shift has already moved offshore. Otherwise the SLGT risk area was adjusted to better match the higher storm coverage and threat for damaging gusts. ...KS/MO... To the west, scattered severe storms should continue to develop/intensify this afternoon ahead of an MCV/shortwave trough across parts of KS and MO. Very moist surface conditions are present with mid 70s F dewpoints contributing to moderate destabilization despite weak low and mid-level lapse rates. Enhanced mid-level wind fields observed by area VADs should support a few stronger storms including supercells capable of damaging gusts and possibly brief tornadoes this afternoon and evening. ...Great Basin... Isolated to scattered high-based thunderstorms remain likely across northern CA and western NV this evening. Steep low-level lapse rates will favor dry microburst potential with these storms or any more persistent clusters of storms able to evolve. Have adjusted the MRGL risk slightly west to better capture storms developing near the higher terrain. Otherwise, see the previous discussion for additional information. ..Lyons.. 07/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1142 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025/ ...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic States... Midday vapor imagery shows a fast-moving shortwave trough progressing eastward into Quebec. An associated cold front will move south-southeastward across New England this afternoon. Relatively hot/humid conditions ahead of the front will lead to widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms across southern New England and eastern portions of New York/Pennsylvania. These storms will track southeastward toward the coast through the early evening with damaging winds possible. ...Northern Plains including North Dakota... An upper ridge remains centered over the central Plains, with a weak southern-stream trough currently moving across Utah into Wyoming. Weak lift and increased mid-level moisture ahead of the system will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms by late afternoon across parts of eastern Montana and northeast Wyoming. Thermodynamic parameters are favorable for large hail in the stronger cells. It seems that these storms will tend to persist east-northeastward this evening and pose a risk of hail and locally damaging winds across North Dakota. ...Eastern Kansas/western Missouri... Regional WSR-88D VWP data continues to sample modestly enhanced low/mid-tropospheric flow in relation to a slow-moving MCV, notable from KEAX where 35-40 kt west-southwesterly flow persists between 3-5 km AGL. With a very moist air mass in place (low to middle 70s F surface dewpoints), intensifying storms could include supercells given some likely persistence of the enhanced flow field. Especially with a convectively reinforced surface boundary, a semi-focused corridor of damaging winds and brief tornado potential could evolve this afternoon into early evening. ...Northern California/western Nevada... Aside from the dry thunderstorm potential (see Fire Weather Day 1 Outlook), sufficient moisture/buoyancy may exist on the eastern and northern periphery of the slow-moving upper low, where mid-level temperatures (-12C at 500mb) are semi-cool, to allow for some hail and/or convectively enhanced wind gusts this afternoon through around sunset. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC...PARTS OF THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY...AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms remain capable of damaging wind gusts across parts of New England and the northern Mid-Atlantic States this afternoon/evening. Severe storms will also be possible across much of North Dakota as well as eastern Kansas into western Missouri. ...20z Update Northeast... Scattered to numerous thunderstorms ongoing ahead of a weak cold front across the Northeast and northern Mid Atlantic states will continue to pose a risk for isolated damaging gusts through this evening. The main focus for storm development/intensification along the front will continue to shift southeastward this afternoon. Trimming was done to the MRGL area mainly where the wind shift has already moved offshore. Otherwise the SLGT risk area was adjusted to better match the higher storm coverage and threat for damaging gusts. ...KS/MO... To the west, scattered severe storms should continue to develop/intensify this afternoon ahead of an MCV/shortwave trough across parts of KS and MO. Very moist surface conditions are present with mid 70s F dewpoints contributing to moderate destabilization despite weak low and mid-level lapse rates. Enhanced mid-level wind fields observed by area VADs should support a few stronger storms including supercells capable of damaging gusts and possibly brief tornadoes this afternoon and evening. ...Great Basin... Isolated to scattered high-based thunderstorms remain likely across northern CA and western NV this evening. Steep low-level lapse rates will favor dry microburst potential with these storms or any more persistent clusters of storms able to evolve. Have adjusted the MRGL risk slightly west to better capture storms developing near the higher terrain. Otherwise, see the previous discussion for additional information. ..Lyons.. 07/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1142 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025/ ...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic States... Midday vapor imagery shows a fast-moving shortwave trough progressing eastward into Quebec. An associated cold front will move south-southeastward across New England this afternoon. Relatively hot/humid conditions ahead of the front will lead to widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms across southern New England and eastern portions of New York/Pennsylvania. These storms will track southeastward toward the coast through the early evening with damaging winds possible. ...Northern Plains including North Dakota... An upper ridge remains centered over the central Plains, with a weak southern-stream trough currently moving across Utah into Wyoming. Weak lift and increased mid-level moisture ahead of the system will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms by late afternoon across parts of eastern Montana and northeast Wyoming. Thermodynamic parameters are favorable for large hail in the stronger cells. It seems that these storms will tend to persist east-northeastward this evening and pose a risk of hail and locally damaging winds across North Dakota. ...Eastern Kansas/western Missouri... Regional WSR-88D VWP data continues to sample modestly enhanced low/mid-tropospheric flow in relation to a slow-moving MCV, notable from KEAX where 35-40 kt west-southwesterly flow persists between 3-5 km AGL. With a very moist air mass in place (low to middle 70s F surface dewpoints), intensifying storms could include supercells given some likely persistence of the enhanced flow field. Especially with a convectively reinforced surface boundary, a semi-focused corridor of damaging winds and brief tornado potential could evolve this afternoon into early evening. ...Northern California/western Nevada... Aside from the dry thunderstorm potential (see Fire Weather Day 1 Outlook), sufficient moisture/buoyancy may exist on the eastern and northern periphery of the slow-moving upper low, where mid-level temperatures (-12C at 500mb) are semi-cool, to allow for some hail and/or convectively enhanced wind gusts this afternoon through around sunset. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC...PARTS OF THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY...AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms remain capable of damaging wind gusts across parts of New England and the northern Mid-Atlantic States this afternoon/evening. Severe storms will also be possible across much of North Dakota as well as eastern Kansas into western Missouri. ...20z Update Northeast... Scattered to numerous thunderstorms ongoing ahead of a weak cold front across the Northeast and northern Mid Atlantic states will continue to pose a risk for isolated damaging gusts through this evening. The main focus for storm development/intensification along the front will continue to shift southeastward this afternoon. Trimming was done to the MRGL area mainly where the wind shift has already moved offshore. Otherwise the SLGT risk area was adjusted to better match the higher storm coverage and threat for damaging gusts. ...KS/MO... To the west, scattered severe storms should continue to develop/intensify this afternoon ahead of an MCV/shortwave trough across parts of KS and MO. Very moist surface conditions are present with mid 70s F dewpoints contributing to moderate destabilization despite weak low and mid-level lapse rates. Enhanced mid-level wind fields observed by area VADs should support a few stronger storms including supercells capable of damaging gusts and possibly brief tornadoes this afternoon and evening. ...Great Basin... Isolated to scattered high-based thunderstorms remain likely across northern CA and western NV this evening. Steep low-level lapse rates will favor dry microburst potential with these storms or any more persistent clusters of storms able to evolve. Have adjusted the MRGL risk slightly west to better capture storms developing near the higher terrain. Otherwise, see the previous discussion for additional information. ..Lyons.. 07/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1142 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025/ ...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic States... Midday vapor imagery shows a fast-moving shortwave trough progressing eastward into Quebec. An associated cold front will move south-southeastward across New England this afternoon. Relatively hot/humid conditions ahead of the front will lead to widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms across southern New England and eastern portions of New York/Pennsylvania. These storms will track southeastward toward the coast through the early evening with damaging winds possible. ...Northern Plains including North Dakota... An upper ridge remains centered over the central Plains, with a weak southern-stream trough currently moving across Utah into Wyoming. Weak lift and increased mid-level moisture ahead of the system will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms by late afternoon across parts of eastern Montana and northeast Wyoming. Thermodynamic parameters are favorable for large hail in the stronger cells. It seems that these storms will tend to persist east-northeastward this evening and pose a risk of hail and locally damaging winds across North Dakota. ...Eastern Kansas/western Missouri... Regional WSR-88D VWP data continues to sample modestly enhanced low/mid-tropospheric flow in relation to a slow-moving MCV, notable from KEAX where 35-40 kt west-southwesterly flow persists between 3-5 km AGL. With a very moist air mass in place (low to middle 70s F surface dewpoints), intensifying storms could include supercells given some likely persistence of the enhanced flow field. Especially with a convectively reinforced surface boundary, a semi-focused corridor of damaging winds and brief tornado potential could evolve this afternoon into early evening. ...Northern California/western Nevada... Aside from the dry thunderstorm potential (see Fire Weather Day 1 Outlook), sufficient moisture/buoyancy may exist on the eastern and northern periphery of the slow-moving upper low, where mid-level temperatures (-12C at 500mb) are semi-cool, to allow for some hail and/or convectively enhanced wind gusts this afternoon through around sunset. Read more