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SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from the eastern Dakotas into the Upper Mississippi Valley as well as across portions of the Mid-Atlantic and New England region. ...Dakotas into Upper Midwest... Forecast uncertainty remains high across these areas. Convection within the Dakotas late Saturday is generally expected to progress into portions of early Sunday morning. The timing and intensify of this early convection is not clear, but will be one of key factors for what occurs in the afternoon. Current guidance would suggest this activity will most likely move through northern parts of Minnesota. Depending on the timing, enough destabilization could occur ahead of it and lead to an increased threat for severe winds into Arrowhead. To the west/south of this activity, a weak surface front/surface trough will likely intersect with outflow from morning activity. This is more likely to be positioned from eastern parts of the Dakotas into central Minnesota. Strong to extreme instability is forecast to develop south of the outflow (3000-5000 J/kg MLCAPE). The broader region will have 40-50 kts of effective shear. Convergence at the surface will be weak and temperatures aloft will be warm enough that capping will be a concern. Any lift from a mid-level perturbation has been rather variable in terms of strength and timing within guidance. While the environment will certainly be favorable for more than just a marginal threat of severe gusts, the above factors greatly limit confidence in highlighting the corridor of greatest risk. ...Mid-Atlantic/Southern New England... A small-scale shortwave trough is expected to move through these regions in the morning. Cloud cover and precipitation appears probable and will have impacts on where the greatest surface heating and destabilization can occur by the afternoon. Portions of southern New England appear most likely to struggle to destabilize, though shear would be sufficient for strong to marginally severe storms. In the Mid-Atlantic, surface heating is more likely and storms will be able to develop within the Blue Ridge and move southeastward. Some clustering may occur given around 20 kts of effective shear. Temperatures in the 90s F and MLCAPE around 3000 J/kg will support a threat for damaging winds. Higher wind probabilities are possible if confidence increases in where clustering will occur. ..Wendt.. 07/26/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from the eastern Dakotas into the Upper Mississippi Valley as well as across portions of the Mid-Atlantic and New England region. ...Dakotas into Upper Midwest... Forecast uncertainty remains high across these areas. Convection within the Dakotas late Saturday is generally expected to progress into portions of early Sunday morning. The timing and intensify of this early convection is not clear, but will be one of key factors for what occurs in the afternoon. Current guidance would suggest this activity will most likely move through northern parts of Minnesota. Depending on the timing, enough destabilization could occur ahead of it and lead to an increased threat for severe winds into Arrowhead. To the west/south of this activity, a weak surface front/surface trough will likely intersect with outflow from morning activity. This is more likely to be positioned from eastern parts of the Dakotas into central Minnesota. Strong to extreme instability is forecast to develop south of the outflow (3000-5000 J/kg MLCAPE). The broader region will have 40-50 kts of effective shear. Convergence at the surface will be weak and temperatures aloft will be warm enough that capping will be a concern. Any lift from a mid-level perturbation has been rather variable in terms of strength and timing within guidance. While the environment will certainly be favorable for more than just a marginal threat of severe gusts, the above factors greatly limit confidence in highlighting the corridor of greatest risk. ...Mid-Atlantic/Southern New England... A small-scale shortwave trough is expected to move through these regions in the morning. Cloud cover and precipitation appears probable and will have impacts on where the greatest surface heating and destabilization can occur by the afternoon. Portions of southern New England appear most likely to struggle to destabilize, though shear would be sufficient for strong to marginally severe storms. In the Mid-Atlantic, surface heating is more likely and storms will be able to develop within the Blue Ridge and move southeastward. Some clustering may occur given around 20 kts of effective shear. Temperatures in the 90s F and MLCAPE around 3000 J/kg will support a threat for damaging winds. Higher wind probabilities are possible if confidence increases in where clustering will occur. ..Wendt.. 07/26/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from the eastern Dakotas into the Upper Mississippi Valley as well as across portions of the Mid-Atlantic and New England region. ...Dakotas into Upper Midwest... Forecast uncertainty remains high across these areas. Convection within the Dakotas late Saturday is generally expected to progress into portions of early Sunday morning. The timing and intensify of this early convection is not clear, but will be one of key factors for what occurs in the afternoon. Current guidance would suggest this activity will most likely move through northern parts of Minnesota. Depending on the timing, enough destabilization could occur ahead of it and lead to an increased threat for severe winds into Arrowhead. To the west/south of this activity, a weak surface front/surface trough will likely intersect with outflow from morning activity. This is more likely to be positioned from eastern parts of the Dakotas into central Minnesota. Strong to extreme instability is forecast to develop south of the outflow (3000-5000 J/kg MLCAPE). The broader region will have 40-50 kts of effective shear. Convergence at the surface will be weak and temperatures aloft will be warm enough that capping will be a concern. Any lift from a mid-level perturbation has been rather variable in terms of strength and timing within guidance. While the environment will certainly be favorable for more than just a marginal threat of severe gusts, the above factors greatly limit confidence in highlighting the corridor of greatest risk. ...Mid-Atlantic/Southern New England... A small-scale shortwave trough is expected to move through these regions in the morning. Cloud cover and precipitation appears probable and will have impacts on where the greatest surface heating and destabilization can occur by the afternoon. Portions of southern New England appear most likely to struggle to destabilize, though shear would be sufficient for strong to marginally severe storms. In the Mid-Atlantic, surface heating is more likely and storms will be able to develop within the Blue Ridge and move southeastward. Some clustering may occur given around 20 kts of effective shear. Temperatures in the 90s F and MLCAPE around 3000 J/kg will support a threat for damaging winds. Higher wind probabilities are possible if confidence increases in where clustering will occur. ..Wendt.. 07/26/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from the eastern Dakotas into the Upper Mississippi Valley as well as across portions of the Mid-Atlantic and New England region. ...Dakotas into Upper Midwest... Forecast uncertainty remains high across these areas. Convection within the Dakotas late Saturday is generally expected to progress into portions of early Sunday morning. The timing and intensify of this early convection is not clear, but will be one of key factors for what occurs in the afternoon. Current guidance would suggest this activity will most likely move through northern parts of Minnesota. Depending on the timing, enough destabilization could occur ahead of it and lead to an increased threat for severe winds into Arrowhead. To the west/south of this activity, a weak surface front/surface trough will likely intersect with outflow from morning activity. This is more likely to be positioned from eastern parts of the Dakotas into central Minnesota. Strong to extreme instability is forecast to develop south of the outflow (3000-5000 J/kg MLCAPE). The broader region will have 40-50 kts of effective shear. Convergence at the surface will be weak and temperatures aloft will be warm enough that capping will be a concern. Any lift from a mid-level perturbation has been rather variable in terms of strength and timing within guidance. While the environment will certainly be favorable for more than just a marginal threat of severe gusts, the above factors greatly limit confidence in highlighting the corridor of greatest risk. ...Mid-Atlantic/Southern New England... A small-scale shortwave trough is expected to move through these regions in the morning. Cloud cover and precipitation appears probable and will have impacts on where the greatest surface heating and destabilization can occur by the afternoon. Portions of southern New England appear most likely to struggle to destabilize, though shear would be sufficient for strong to marginally severe storms. In the Mid-Atlantic, surface heating is more likely and storms will be able to develop within the Blue Ridge and move southeastward. Some clustering may occur given around 20 kts of effective shear. Temperatures in the 90s F and MLCAPE around 3000 J/kg will support a threat for damaging winds. Higher wind probabilities are possible if confidence increases in where clustering will occur. ..Wendt.. 07/26/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from the eastern Dakotas into the Upper Mississippi Valley as well as across portions of the Mid-Atlantic and New England region. ...Dakotas into Upper Midwest... Forecast uncertainty remains high across these areas. Convection within the Dakotas late Saturday is generally expected to progress into portions of early Sunday morning. The timing and intensify of this early convection is not clear, but will be one of key factors for what occurs in the afternoon. Current guidance would suggest this activity will most likely move through northern parts of Minnesota. Depending on the timing, enough destabilization could occur ahead of it and lead to an increased threat for severe winds into Arrowhead. To the west/south of this activity, a weak surface front/surface trough will likely intersect with outflow from morning activity. This is more likely to be positioned from eastern parts of the Dakotas into central Minnesota. Strong to extreme instability is forecast to develop south of the outflow (3000-5000 J/kg MLCAPE). The broader region will have 40-50 kts of effective shear. Convergence at the surface will be weak and temperatures aloft will be warm enough that capping will be a concern. Any lift from a mid-level perturbation has been rather variable in terms of strength and timing within guidance. While the environment will certainly be favorable for more than just a marginal threat of severe gusts, the above factors greatly limit confidence in highlighting the corridor of greatest risk. ...Mid-Atlantic/Southern New England... A small-scale shortwave trough is expected to move through these regions in the morning. Cloud cover and precipitation appears probable and will have impacts on where the greatest surface heating and destabilization can occur by the afternoon. Portions of southern New England appear most likely to struggle to destabilize, though shear would be sufficient for strong to marginally severe storms. In the Mid-Atlantic, surface heating is more likely and storms will be able to develop within the Blue Ridge and move southeastward. Some clustering may occur given around 20 kts of effective shear. Temperatures in the 90s F and MLCAPE around 3000 J/kg will support a threat for damaging winds. Higher wind probabilities are possible if confidence increases in where clustering will occur. ..Wendt.. 07/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms accompanied by damaging wind gusts will be possible Saturday afternoon and evening in parts of the northern Plains. Isolated strong to severe storms will be possible from the Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes into the mid-Atlantic region, and across the central High Plains and much of Montana. ...Synopsis... An expansive upper-level cyclone over the southeast U.S. will move little on Saturday, as a broad upper-level trough persists along the West Coast. A modest belt of stronger mid-level westerlies will extend across the northern CONUS. A quasi-stationary surface front will extend east-west across the northern Ohio Valley and southeast across the mid-Atlantic. ...MT east across the northern/central Plains... Embedded impulses within the western U.S. upper trough, most notably now moving northeast across UT, will pivot east across MT and the northern Plains during the day Saturday. Storms may be in progress Saturday morning, with additional development along a surface trough across western SD southward into the central High Plains as large-scale ascent overspreads the area. Storms over western SD should evolve upscale over time while moving east/northeast, with an increasing risk for damaging winds, especially across the Slight Risk area, where strong instability with eastward extent (MLCAPE over 3000 J/kg across) will be in place. Deep-layer shear will be supportive of supercell potential with any semi-discrete storm that develops, with an attendant risk for large hail. More isolated storms that develop along the surface trough across western NE/northeast CO will also have the potential for strong/severe gusts within a very deep/well-mixed boundary layer. Isolated stronger storms will also be possible across MT, where weak instability and steep low-level lapse rates will promote some potential for strong/severe gusts. ...Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic Region... A moist air mass (low-mid 70s surface dew points) will remain in place south of the quasi-stationary front during the day. Morning storms will likely be ongoing at 12z Saturday over northern portions of MO/IL/IN, with some diurnal uptick in coverage/intensity during the afternoon as a convectively augmented mid-level impulse moves east across this area. Twenty to 30 kts of deep-layer shear will result in organized updrafts with a risk for isolated strong wind gusts and perhaps hail during the afternoon. Isolated storms will also be possible across the mid-Atlantic, where moderate/strong mixed-layer instability and modest west-northwest mid-level flow will support the potential for strong gusts. ..Bunting/Squitieri.. 07/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms accompanied by damaging wind gusts will be possible Saturday afternoon and evening in parts of the northern Plains. Isolated strong to severe storms will be possible from the Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes into the mid-Atlantic region, and across the central High Plains and much of Montana. ...Synopsis... An expansive upper-level cyclone over the southeast U.S. will move little on Saturday, as a broad upper-level trough persists along the West Coast. A modest belt of stronger mid-level westerlies will extend across the northern CONUS. A quasi-stationary surface front will extend east-west across the northern Ohio Valley and southeast across the mid-Atlantic. ...MT east across the northern/central Plains... Embedded impulses within the western U.S. upper trough, most notably now moving northeast across UT, will pivot east across MT and the northern Plains during the day Saturday. Storms may be in progress Saturday morning, with additional development along a surface trough across western SD southward into the central High Plains as large-scale ascent overspreads the area. Storms over western SD should evolve upscale over time while moving east/northeast, with an increasing risk for damaging winds, especially across the Slight Risk area, where strong instability with eastward extent (MLCAPE over 3000 J/kg across) will be in place. Deep-layer shear will be supportive of supercell potential with any semi-discrete storm that develops, with an attendant risk for large hail. More isolated storms that develop along the surface trough across western NE/northeast CO will also have the potential for strong/severe gusts within a very deep/well-mixed boundary layer. Isolated stronger storms will also be possible across MT, where weak instability and steep low-level lapse rates will promote some potential for strong/severe gusts. ...Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic Region... A moist air mass (low-mid 70s surface dew points) will remain in place south of the quasi-stationary front during the day. Morning storms will likely be ongoing at 12z Saturday over northern portions of MO/IL/IN, with some diurnal uptick in coverage/intensity during the afternoon as a convectively augmented mid-level impulse moves east across this area. Twenty to 30 kts of deep-layer shear will result in organized updrafts with a risk for isolated strong wind gusts and perhaps hail during the afternoon. Isolated storms will also be possible across the mid-Atlantic, where moderate/strong mixed-layer instability and modest west-northwest mid-level flow will support the potential for strong gusts. ..Bunting/Squitieri.. 07/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms accompanied by damaging wind gusts will be possible Saturday afternoon and evening in parts of the northern Plains. Isolated strong to severe storms will be possible from the Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes into the mid-Atlantic region, and across the central High Plains and much of Montana. ...Synopsis... An expansive upper-level cyclone over the southeast U.S. will move little on Saturday, as a broad upper-level trough persists along the West Coast. A modest belt of stronger mid-level westerlies will extend across the northern CONUS. A quasi-stationary surface front will extend east-west across the northern Ohio Valley and southeast across the mid-Atlantic. ...MT east across the northern/central Plains... Embedded impulses within the western U.S. upper trough, most notably now moving northeast across UT, will pivot east across MT and the northern Plains during the day Saturday. Storms may be in progress Saturday morning, with additional development along a surface trough across western SD southward into the central High Plains as large-scale ascent overspreads the area. Storms over western SD should evolve upscale over time while moving east/northeast, with an increasing risk for damaging winds, especially across the Slight Risk area, where strong instability with eastward extent (MLCAPE over 3000 J/kg across) will be in place. Deep-layer shear will be supportive of supercell potential with any semi-discrete storm that develops, with an attendant risk for large hail. More isolated storms that develop along the surface trough across western NE/northeast CO will also have the potential for strong/severe gusts within a very deep/well-mixed boundary layer. Isolated stronger storms will also be possible across MT, where weak instability and steep low-level lapse rates will promote some potential for strong/severe gusts. ...Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic Region... A moist air mass (low-mid 70s surface dew points) will remain in place south of the quasi-stationary front during the day. Morning storms will likely be ongoing at 12z Saturday over northern portions of MO/IL/IN, with some diurnal uptick in coverage/intensity during the afternoon as a convectively augmented mid-level impulse moves east across this area. Twenty to 30 kts of deep-layer shear will result in organized updrafts with a risk for isolated strong wind gusts and perhaps hail during the afternoon. Isolated storms will also be possible across the mid-Atlantic, where moderate/strong mixed-layer instability and modest west-northwest mid-level flow will support the potential for strong gusts. ..Bunting/Squitieri.. 07/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms accompanied by damaging wind gusts will be possible Saturday afternoon and evening in parts of the northern Plains. Isolated strong to severe storms will be possible from the Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes into the mid-Atlantic region, and across the central High Plains and much of Montana. ...Synopsis... An expansive upper-level cyclone over the southeast U.S. will move little on Saturday, as a broad upper-level trough persists along the West Coast. A modest belt of stronger mid-level westerlies will extend across the northern CONUS. A quasi-stationary surface front will extend east-west across the northern Ohio Valley and southeast across the mid-Atlantic. ...MT east across the northern/central Plains... Embedded impulses within the western U.S. upper trough, most notably now moving northeast across UT, will pivot east across MT and the northern Plains during the day Saturday. Storms may be in progress Saturday morning, with additional development along a surface trough across western SD southward into the central High Plains as large-scale ascent overspreads the area. Storms over western SD should evolve upscale over time while moving east/northeast, with an increasing risk for damaging winds, especially across the Slight Risk area, where strong instability with eastward extent (MLCAPE over 3000 J/kg across) will be in place. Deep-layer shear will be supportive of supercell potential with any semi-discrete storm that develops, with an attendant risk for large hail. More isolated storms that develop along the surface trough across western NE/northeast CO will also have the potential for strong/severe gusts within a very deep/well-mixed boundary layer. Isolated stronger storms will also be possible across MT, where weak instability and steep low-level lapse rates will promote some potential for strong/severe gusts. ...Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic Region... A moist air mass (low-mid 70s surface dew points) will remain in place south of the quasi-stationary front during the day. Morning storms will likely be ongoing at 12z Saturday over northern portions of MO/IL/IN, with some diurnal uptick in coverage/intensity during the afternoon as a convectively augmented mid-level impulse moves east across this area. Twenty to 30 kts of deep-layer shear will result in organized updrafts with a risk for isolated strong wind gusts and perhaps hail during the afternoon. Isolated storms will also be possible across the mid-Atlantic, where moderate/strong mixed-layer instability and modest west-northwest mid-level flow will support the potential for strong gusts. ..Bunting/Squitieri.. 07/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms accompanied by damaging wind gusts will be possible Saturday afternoon and evening in parts of the northern Plains. Isolated strong to severe storms will be possible from the Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes into the mid-Atlantic region, and across the central High Plains and much of Montana. ...Synopsis... An expansive upper-level cyclone over the southeast U.S. will move little on Saturday, as a broad upper-level trough persists along the West Coast. A modest belt of stronger mid-level westerlies will extend across the northern CONUS. A quasi-stationary surface front will extend east-west across the northern Ohio Valley and southeast across the mid-Atlantic. ...MT east across the northern/central Plains... Embedded impulses within the western U.S. upper trough, most notably now moving northeast across UT, will pivot east across MT and the northern Plains during the day Saturday. Storms may be in progress Saturday morning, with additional development along a surface trough across western SD southward into the central High Plains as large-scale ascent overspreads the area. Storms over western SD should evolve upscale over time while moving east/northeast, with an increasing risk for damaging winds, especially across the Slight Risk area, where strong instability with eastward extent (MLCAPE over 3000 J/kg across) will be in place. Deep-layer shear will be supportive of supercell potential with any semi-discrete storm that develops, with an attendant risk for large hail. More isolated storms that develop along the surface trough across western NE/northeast CO will also have the potential for strong/severe gusts within a very deep/well-mixed boundary layer. Isolated stronger storms will also be possible across MT, where weak instability and steep low-level lapse rates will promote some potential for strong/severe gusts. ...Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic Region... A moist air mass (low-mid 70s surface dew points) will remain in place south of the quasi-stationary front during the day. Morning storms will likely be ongoing at 12z Saturday over northern portions of MO/IL/IN, with some diurnal uptick in coverage/intensity during the afternoon as a convectively augmented mid-level impulse moves east across this area. Twenty to 30 kts of deep-layer shear will result in organized updrafts with a risk for isolated strong wind gusts and perhaps hail during the afternoon. Isolated storms will also be possible across the mid-Atlantic, where moderate/strong mixed-layer instability and modest west-northwest mid-level flow will support the potential for strong gusts. ..Bunting/Squitieri.. 07/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms accompanied by damaging wind gusts will be possible Saturday afternoon and evening in parts of the northern Plains. Isolated strong to severe storms will be possible from the Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes into the mid-Atlantic region, and across the central High Plains and much of Montana. ...Synopsis... An expansive upper-level cyclone over the southeast U.S. will move little on Saturday, as a broad upper-level trough persists along the West Coast. A modest belt of stronger mid-level westerlies will extend across the northern CONUS. A quasi-stationary surface front will extend east-west across the northern Ohio Valley and southeast across the mid-Atlantic. ...MT east across the northern/central Plains... Embedded impulses within the western U.S. upper trough, most notably now moving northeast across UT, will pivot east across MT and the northern Plains during the day Saturday. Storms may be in progress Saturday morning, with additional development along a surface trough across western SD southward into the central High Plains as large-scale ascent overspreads the area. Storms over western SD should evolve upscale over time while moving east/northeast, with an increasing risk for damaging winds, especially across the Slight Risk area, where strong instability with eastward extent (MLCAPE over 3000 J/kg across) will be in place. Deep-layer shear will be supportive of supercell potential with any semi-discrete storm that develops, with an attendant risk for large hail. More isolated storms that develop along the surface trough across western NE/northeast CO will also have the potential for strong/severe gusts within a very deep/well-mixed boundary layer. Isolated stronger storms will also be possible across MT, where weak instability and steep low-level lapse rates will promote some potential for strong/severe gusts. ...Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic Region... A moist air mass (low-mid 70s surface dew points) will remain in place south of the quasi-stationary front during the day. Morning storms will likely be ongoing at 12z Saturday over northern portions of MO/IL/IN, with some diurnal uptick in coverage/intensity during the afternoon as a convectively augmented mid-level impulse moves east across this area. Twenty to 30 kts of deep-layer shear will result in organized updrafts with a risk for isolated strong wind gusts and perhaps hail during the afternoon. Isolated storms will also be possible across the mid-Atlantic, where moderate/strong mixed-layer instability and modest west-northwest mid-level flow will support the potential for strong gusts. ..Bunting/Squitieri.. 07/26/2025 Read more

000
ABNT20 KNHC 260549
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sat Jul 26 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Jelsema

WW 0543 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 543 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SE BIS TO 30 W MOT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1788. ..GRAMS..07/26/25 ATTN...WFO...BIS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 543 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NDC009-015-029-043-049-055-069-075-083-101-103-260640- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOTTINEAU BURLEIGH EMMONS KIDDER MCHENRY MCLEAN PIERCE RENVILLE SHERIDAN WARD WELLS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0543 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 543 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SE BIS TO 30 W MOT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1788. ..GRAMS..07/26/25 ATTN...WFO...BIS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 543 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NDC009-015-029-043-049-055-069-075-083-101-103-260640- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOTTINEAU BURLEIGH EMMONS KIDDER MCHENRY MCLEAN PIERCE RENVILLE SHERIDAN WARD WELLS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 1788 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 543... FOR CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST ND
Mesoscale Discussion 1788 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Areas affected...Central into northeast ND Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 543... Valid 260424Z - 260600Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 543 continues. SUMMARY...At least an isolated threat for severe wind and hail may continue overnight. DISCUSSION...A small thunderstorm cluster that earlier weakened across southwest ND has recently intensified west of Bismarck. A strengthening low-level jet observed on recent VWPs from KBIS may be aiding the recent intensification of both the eastward-moving storm cluster, and an area of midlevel convection that has recently deepened north of Bismarck. Ongoing storms remain relatively disorganized with a tendency for outflow to undercut convection, but steep midlevel lapse rates and large MUCAPE (2500 J/kg or greater) will continue to support some potential for hail with the strongest cores, along with strong to severe gust potential, especially with the cluster approaching Bismarck. Farther north, an earlier intense storm cluster has mostly dissipated across northwest ND, but some recent intensification of new updrafts has been noted east of Minot, just behind the remnant eastward-moving outflow. Very strong buoyancy (MUCAPE of 3000-4000 J/kg) remains in place into northeast ND. Given the favorable MUCAPE and midlevel lapse rates, an uptick in storm coverage and intensity is possible into the overnight hours. With CINH increasing and deep-layer shear expected to remain rather modest, potential for longer-lived cells and/or organized upscale growth remains uncertain. The potential for any downstream watch issuance will depend on short-term trends regarding storm coverage and organization. ..Dean/Mosier.. 07/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS... LAT...LON 46950205 47240179 47620092 48930031 49149892 49119802 48709755 47819838 46589956 46080087 45970174 46950205 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

WW 543 SEVERE TSTM ND 260035Z - 260700Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 543 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 735 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Western and Central North Dakota * Effective this Friday night and Saturday morning from 735 PM until 200 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this evening into tonight within the very unstable airmass in place across western and central ND. Large to very large hail is possible with the more cellular, early-stage thunderstorms. Upscale growth into a more linear convective system is possible, with the primary hazard transitioning to strong wind gusts if this line materializes. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles north and south of a line from 55 miles northeast of Bismarck ND to 60 miles west northwest of Dickinson ND. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 542... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27030. ...Mosier Read more

878
ABPZ20 KNHC 260542
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Fri Jul 25 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Eastern portion of Central Pacific (CP90):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located around 1100 miles southeast of the Hawaiian Islands
have decreased since earlier today. Some gradual development of this
system is possible, and a tropical depression could form this
weekend or early next week as it moves generally westward at 10 to
15 mph across the Central Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

South of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form offshore of the
southwestern coast of Mexico early next week. Thereafter,
environmental conditions appear conducive for some development and a
tropical depression could form during the middle to latter part of
next week as the system moves generally west-northwestward at 10 to
15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Western East Pacific:
An area of low pressure is forecast to develop over 1500 miles
east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands during the next day or two.
Some gradual development is possible thereafter, as the system moves
generally westward around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Jelsema

WW 0543 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 543 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1788 ..DEAN..07/26/25 ATTN...WFO...BIS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 543 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NDC001-007-009-011-013-015-025-029-033-037-041-043-049-053-055- 057-059-061-065-069-075-083-085-087-089-101-103-105-260540- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BILLINGS BOTTINEAU BOWMAN BURKE BURLEIGH DUNN EMMONS GOLDEN VALLEY GRANT HETTINGER KIDDER MCHENRY MCKENZIE MCLEAN MERCER MORTON MOUNTRAIL OLIVER PIERCE RENVILLE SHERIDAN SIOUX SLOPE STARK WARD WELLS WILLIAMS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 1787 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN IL
Mesoscale Discussion 1787 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1006 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Areas affected...Parts of central/northern IL Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 260306Z - 260430Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Localized damaging wind is possible into late evening. DISCUSSION...A small storm cluster recently intensified across north-central IL, in conjunction with an MCV and in the vicinity of a weak surface boundary. Moderate buoyancy may continue to sustain this system in the short term, with a some threat of locally damaging wind. Increasing CINH and decreasing buoyancy downstream should tend to limit the longevity of any threat with this system. Farther south, storms have recently intensified across west-central IL, where moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE near 2000 J/kg) remains in place this evening. Deep-layer flow is generally modest, but veering wind profiles are supporting effective shear of 20-25 kt, and some transient storm organization is possible into late evening. Locally damaging wind should be the primary threat with this convection, generally near/south of where it intersects the outflow from the cluster to the north. ..Dean/Mosier.. 07/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN... LAT...LON 40558809 39408926 39078991 39139014 39489070 39879094 40508956 40768916 41258923 41498854 41438794 41078778 40558809 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH Read more

MD 1786 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 543... FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1786 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0853 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Areas affected...portions of western into central North Dakota Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 543... Valid 260153Z - 260300Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 543 continues. SUMMARY...Severe gusts remain possible with ongoing storms in northwestern and southwestern ND, and a couple instances of severe hail are still possible. DISCUSSION...Two clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms are in progress; one over northwestern ND, and the other in southwestern ND. The northwestern cluster has shown bow-echo tendencies, and has produced measured severe gusts with an established cold pool, with 20-30 F temperatures deficits noted via the NDAWN surface observational network. However, the 00Z BIS observed sounding and mesoanalysis depict overall weak vertical wind shear in western portions of the state, particularly at low levels. BIS radar data also shows the northwestern cluster becoming outflow dominant, perhaps being undercut by the cold pool given poor countering low-level shear. It is unclear how much longer the short-term severe wind threat will last with this cluster. Severe wind reports have yet to be received by the southwestern cluster. Nonetheless, severe gusts are possible under the condition that further upscale growth and intensification occurs, as was the case with the northwestern cluster. ..Squitieri.. 07/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BIS... LAT...LON 46160397 48090312 48560274 48890178 48960057 48530001 47889988 46939987 46220028 46080118 46040338 46160397 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more