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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC...PARTS OF THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY...AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms remain capable of damaging wind gusts across parts of New England and the northern Mid-Atlantic States this afternoon/evening. Severe storms will also be possible across much of North Dakota as well as eastern Kansas into western Missouri. ...20z Update Northeast... Scattered to numerous thunderstorms ongoing ahead of a weak cold front across the Northeast and northern Mid Atlantic states will continue to pose a risk for isolated damaging gusts through this evening. The main focus for storm development/intensification along the front will continue to shift southeastward this afternoon. Trimming was done to the MRGL area mainly where the wind shift has already moved offshore. Otherwise the SLGT risk area was adjusted to better match the higher storm coverage and threat for damaging gusts. ...KS/MO... To the west, scattered severe storms should continue to develop/intensify this afternoon ahead of an MCV/shortwave trough across parts of KS and MO. Very moist surface conditions are present with mid 70s F dewpoints contributing to moderate destabilization despite weak low and mid-level lapse rates. Enhanced mid-level wind fields observed by area VADs should support a few stronger storms including supercells capable of damaging gusts and possibly brief tornadoes this afternoon and evening. ...Great Basin... Isolated to scattered high-based thunderstorms remain likely across northern CA and western NV this evening. Steep low-level lapse rates will favor dry microburst potential with these storms or any more persistent clusters of storms able to evolve. Have adjusted the MRGL risk slightly west to better capture storms developing near the higher terrain. Otherwise, see the previous discussion for additional information. ..Lyons.. 07/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1142 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025/ ...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic States... Midday vapor imagery shows a fast-moving shortwave trough progressing eastward into Quebec. An associated cold front will move south-southeastward across New England this afternoon. Relatively hot/humid conditions ahead of the front will lead to widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms across southern New England and eastern portions of New York/Pennsylvania. These storms will track southeastward toward the coast through the early evening with damaging winds possible. ...Northern Plains including North Dakota... An upper ridge remains centered over the central Plains, with a weak southern-stream trough currently moving across Utah into Wyoming. Weak lift and increased mid-level moisture ahead of the system will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms by late afternoon across parts of eastern Montana and northeast Wyoming. Thermodynamic parameters are favorable for large hail in the stronger cells. It seems that these storms will tend to persist east-northeastward this evening and pose a risk of hail and locally damaging winds across North Dakota. ...Eastern Kansas/western Missouri... Regional WSR-88D VWP data continues to sample modestly enhanced low/mid-tropospheric flow in relation to a slow-moving MCV, notable from KEAX where 35-40 kt west-southwesterly flow persists between 3-5 km AGL. With a very moist air mass in place (low to middle 70s F surface dewpoints), intensifying storms could include supercells given some likely persistence of the enhanced flow field. Especially with a convectively reinforced surface boundary, a semi-focused corridor of damaging winds and brief tornado potential could evolve this afternoon into early evening. ...Northern California/western Nevada... Aside from the dry thunderstorm potential (see Fire Weather Day 1 Outlook), sufficient moisture/buoyancy may exist on the eastern and northern periphery of the slow-moving upper low, where mid-level temperatures (-12C at 500mb) are semi-cool, to allow for some hail and/or convectively enhanced wind gusts this afternoon through around sunset. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC...PARTS OF THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY...AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms remain capable of damaging wind gusts across parts of New England and the northern Mid-Atlantic States this afternoon/evening. Severe storms will also be possible across much of North Dakota as well as eastern Kansas into western Missouri. ...20z Update Northeast... Scattered to numerous thunderstorms ongoing ahead of a weak cold front across the Northeast and northern Mid Atlantic states will continue to pose a risk for isolated damaging gusts through this evening. The main focus for storm development/intensification along the front will continue to shift southeastward this afternoon. Trimming was done to the MRGL area mainly where the wind shift has already moved offshore. Otherwise the SLGT risk area was adjusted to better match the higher storm coverage and threat for damaging gusts. ...KS/MO... To the west, scattered severe storms should continue to develop/intensify this afternoon ahead of an MCV/shortwave trough across parts of KS and MO. Very moist surface conditions are present with mid 70s F dewpoints contributing to moderate destabilization despite weak low and mid-level lapse rates. Enhanced mid-level wind fields observed by area VADs should support a few stronger storms including supercells capable of damaging gusts and possibly brief tornadoes this afternoon and evening. ...Great Basin... Isolated to scattered high-based thunderstorms remain likely across northern CA and western NV this evening. Steep low-level lapse rates will favor dry microburst potential with these storms or any more persistent clusters of storms able to evolve. Have adjusted the MRGL risk slightly west to better capture storms developing near the higher terrain. Otherwise, see the previous discussion for additional information. ..Lyons.. 07/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1142 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025/ ...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic States... Midday vapor imagery shows a fast-moving shortwave trough progressing eastward into Quebec. An associated cold front will move south-southeastward across New England this afternoon. Relatively hot/humid conditions ahead of the front will lead to widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms across southern New England and eastern portions of New York/Pennsylvania. These storms will track southeastward toward the coast through the early evening with damaging winds possible. ...Northern Plains including North Dakota... An upper ridge remains centered over the central Plains, with a weak southern-stream trough currently moving across Utah into Wyoming. Weak lift and increased mid-level moisture ahead of the system will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms by late afternoon across parts of eastern Montana and northeast Wyoming. Thermodynamic parameters are favorable for large hail in the stronger cells. It seems that these storms will tend to persist east-northeastward this evening and pose a risk of hail and locally damaging winds across North Dakota. ...Eastern Kansas/western Missouri... Regional WSR-88D VWP data continues to sample modestly enhanced low/mid-tropospheric flow in relation to a slow-moving MCV, notable from KEAX where 35-40 kt west-southwesterly flow persists between 3-5 km AGL. With a very moist air mass in place (low to middle 70s F surface dewpoints), intensifying storms could include supercells given some likely persistence of the enhanced flow field. Especially with a convectively reinforced surface boundary, a semi-focused corridor of damaging winds and brief tornado potential could evolve this afternoon into early evening. ...Northern California/western Nevada... Aside from the dry thunderstorm potential (see Fire Weather Day 1 Outlook), sufficient moisture/buoyancy may exist on the eastern and northern periphery of the slow-moving upper low, where mid-level temperatures (-12C at 500mb) are semi-cool, to allow for some hail and/or convectively enhanced wind gusts this afternoon through around sunset. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC...PARTS OF THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY...AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms remain capable of damaging wind gusts across parts of New England and the northern Mid-Atlantic States this afternoon/evening. Severe storms will also be possible across much of North Dakota as well as eastern Kansas into western Missouri. ...20z Update Northeast... Scattered to numerous thunderstorms ongoing ahead of a weak cold front across the Northeast and northern Mid Atlantic states will continue to pose a risk for isolated damaging gusts through this evening. The main focus for storm development/intensification along the front will continue to shift southeastward this afternoon. Trimming was done to the MRGL area mainly where the wind shift has already moved offshore. Otherwise the SLGT risk area was adjusted to better match the higher storm coverage and threat for damaging gusts. ...KS/MO... To the west, scattered severe storms should continue to develop/intensify this afternoon ahead of an MCV/shortwave trough across parts of KS and MO. Very moist surface conditions are present with mid 70s F dewpoints contributing to moderate destabilization despite weak low and mid-level lapse rates. Enhanced mid-level wind fields observed by area VADs should support a few stronger storms including supercells capable of damaging gusts and possibly brief tornadoes this afternoon and evening. ...Great Basin... Isolated to scattered high-based thunderstorms remain likely across northern CA and western NV this evening. Steep low-level lapse rates will favor dry microburst potential with these storms or any more persistent clusters of storms able to evolve. Have adjusted the MRGL risk slightly west to better capture storms developing near the higher terrain. Otherwise, see the previous discussion for additional information. ..Lyons.. 07/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1142 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025/ ...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic States... Midday vapor imagery shows a fast-moving shortwave trough progressing eastward into Quebec. An associated cold front will move south-southeastward across New England this afternoon. Relatively hot/humid conditions ahead of the front will lead to widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms across southern New England and eastern portions of New York/Pennsylvania. These storms will track southeastward toward the coast through the early evening with damaging winds possible. ...Northern Plains including North Dakota... An upper ridge remains centered over the central Plains, with a weak southern-stream trough currently moving across Utah into Wyoming. Weak lift and increased mid-level moisture ahead of the system will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms by late afternoon across parts of eastern Montana and northeast Wyoming. Thermodynamic parameters are favorable for large hail in the stronger cells. It seems that these storms will tend to persist east-northeastward this evening and pose a risk of hail and locally damaging winds across North Dakota. ...Eastern Kansas/western Missouri... Regional WSR-88D VWP data continues to sample modestly enhanced low/mid-tropospheric flow in relation to a slow-moving MCV, notable from KEAX where 35-40 kt west-southwesterly flow persists between 3-5 km AGL. With a very moist air mass in place (low to middle 70s F surface dewpoints), intensifying storms could include supercells given some likely persistence of the enhanced flow field. Especially with a convectively reinforced surface boundary, a semi-focused corridor of damaging winds and brief tornado potential could evolve this afternoon into early evening. ...Northern California/western Nevada... Aside from the dry thunderstorm potential (see Fire Weather Day 1 Outlook), sufficient moisture/buoyancy may exist on the eastern and northern periphery of the slow-moving upper low, where mid-level temperatures (-12C at 500mb) are semi-cool, to allow for some hail and/or convectively enhanced wind gusts this afternoon through around sunset. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC...PARTS OF THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY...AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms remain capable of damaging wind gusts across parts of New England and the northern Mid-Atlantic States this afternoon/evening. Severe storms will also be possible across much of North Dakota as well as eastern Kansas into western Missouri. ...20z Update Northeast... Scattered to numerous thunderstorms ongoing ahead of a weak cold front across the Northeast and northern Mid Atlantic states will continue to pose a risk for isolated damaging gusts through this evening. The main focus for storm development/intensification along the front will continue to shift southeastward this afternoon. Trimming was done to the MRGL area mainly where the wind shift has already moved offshore. Otherwise the SLGT risk area was adjusted to better match the higher storm coverage and threat for damaging gusts. ...KS/MO... To the west, scattered severe storms should continue to develop/intensify this afternoon ahead of an MCV/shortwave trough across parts of KS and MO. Very moist surface conditions are present with mid 70s F dewpoints contributing to moderate destabilization despite weak low and mid-level lapse rates. Enhanced mid-level wind fields observed by area VADs should support a few stronger storms including supercells capable of damaging gusts and possibly brief tornadoes this afternoon and evening. ...Great Basin... Isolated to scattered high-based thunderstorms remain likely across northern CA and western NV this evening. Steep low-level lapse rates will favor dry microburst potential with these storms or any more persistent clusters of storms able to evolve. Have adjusted the MRGL risk slightly west to better capture storms developing near the higher terrain. Otherwise, see the previous discussion for additional information. ..Lyons.. 07/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1142 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025/ ...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic States... Midday vapor imagery shows a fast-moving shortwave trough progressing eastward into Quebec. An associated cold front will move south-southeastward across New England this afternoon. Relatively hot/humid conditions ahead of the front will lead to widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms across southern New England and eastern portions of New York/Pennsylvania. These storms will track southeastward toward the coast through the early evening with damaging winds possible. ...Northern Plains including North Dakota... An upper ridge remains centered over the central Plains, with a weak southern-stream trough currently moving across Utah into Wyoming. Weak lift and increased mid-level moisture ahead of the system will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms by late afternoon across parts of eastern Montana and northeast Wyoming. Thermodynamic parameters are favorable for large hail in the stronger cells. It seems that these storms will tend to persist east-northeastward this evening and pose a risk of hail and locally damaging winds across North Dakota. ...Eastern Kansas/western Missouri... Regional WSR-88D VWP data continues to sample modestly enhanced low/mid-tropospheric flow in relation to a slow-moving MCV, notable from KEAX where 35-40 kt west-southwesterly flow persists between 3-5 km AGL. With a very moist air mass in place (low to middle 70s F surface dewpoints), intensifying storms could include supercells given some likely persistence of the enhanced flow field. Especially with a convectively reinforced surface boundary, a semi-focused corridor of damaging winds and brief tornado potential could evolve this afternoon into early evening. ...Northern California/western Nevada... Aside from the dry thunderstorm potential (see Fire Weather Day 1 Outlook), sufficient moisture/buoyancy may exist on the eastern and northern periphery of the slow-moving upper low, where mid-level temperatures (-12C at 500mb) are semi-cool, to allow for some hail and/or convectively enhanced wind gusts this afternoon through around sunset. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC...PARTS OF THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY...AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms remain capable of damaging wind gusts across parts of New England and the northern Mid-Atlantic States this afternoon/evening. Severe storms will also be possible across much of North Dakota as well as eastern Kansas into western Missouri. ...20z Update Northeast... Scattered to numerous thunderstorms ongoing ahead of a weak cold front across the Northeast and northern Mid Atlantic states will continue to pose a risk for isolated damaging gusts through this evening. The main focus for storm development/intensification along the front will continue to shift southeastward this afternoon. Trimming was done to the MRGL area mainly where the wind shift has already moved offshore. Otherwise the SLGT risk area was adjusted to better match the higher storm coverage and threat for damaging gusts. ...KS/MO... To the west, scattered severe storms should continue to develop/intensify this afternoon ahead of an MCV/shortwave trough across parts of KS and MO. Very moist surface conditions are present with mid 70s F dewpoints contributing to moderate destabilization despite weak low and mid-level lapse rates. Enhanced mid-level wind fields observed by area VADs should support a few stronger storms including supercells capable of damaging gusts and possibly brief tornadoes this afternoon and evening. ...Great Basin... Isolated to scattered high-based thunderstorms remain likely across northern CA and western NV this evening. Steep low-level lapse rates will favor dry microburst potential with these storms or any more persistent clusters of storms able to evolve. Have adjusted the MRGL risk slightly west to better capture storms developing near the higher terrain. Otherwise, see the previous discussion for additional information. ..Lyons.. 07/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1142 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025/ ...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic States... Midday vapor imagery shows a fast-moving shortwave trough progressing eastward into Quebec. An associated cold front will move south-southeastward across New England this afternoon. Relatively hot/humid conditions ahead of the front will lead to widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms across southern New England and eastern portions of New York/Pennsylvania. These storms will track southeastward toward the coast through the early evening with damaging winds possible. ...Northern Plains including North Dakota... An upper ridge remains centered over the central Plains, with a weak southern-stream trough currently moving across Utah into Wyoming. Weak lift and increased mid-level moisture ahead of the system will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms by late afternoon across parts of eastern Montana and northeast Wyoming. Thermodynamic parameters are favorable for large hail in the stronger cells. It seems that these storms will tend to persist east-northeastward this evening and pose a risk of hail and locally damaging winds across North Dakota. ...Eastern Kansas/western Missouri... Regional WSR-88D VWP data continues to sample modestly enhanced low/mid-tropospheric flow in relation to a slow-moving MCV, notable from KEAX where 35-40 kt west-southwesterly flow persists between 3-5 km AGL. With a very moist air mass in place (low to middle 70s F surface dewpoints), intensifying storms could include supercells given some likely persistence of the enhanced flow field. Especially with a convectively reinforced surface boundary, a semi-focused corridor of damaging winds and brief tornado potential could evolve this afternoon into early evening. ...Northern California/western Nevada... Aside from the dry thunderstorm potential (see Fire Weather Day 1 Outlook), sufficient moisture/buoyancy may exist on the eastern and northern periphery of the slow-moving upper low, where mid-level temperatures (-12C at 500mb) are semi-cool, to allow for some hail and/or convectively enhanced wind gusts this afternoon through around sunset. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC...PARTS OF THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY...AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms remain capable of damaging wind gusts across parts of New England and the northern Mid-Atlantic States this afternoon/evening. Severe storms will also be possible across much of North Dakota as well as eastern Kansas into western Missouri. ...20z Update Northeast... Scattered to numerous thunderstorms ongoing ahead of a weak cold front across the Northeast and northern Mid Atlantic states will continue to pose a risk for isolated damaging gusts through this evening. The main focus for storm development/intensification along the front will continue to shift southeastward this afternoon. Trimming was done to the MRGL area mainly where the wind shift has already moved offshore. Otherwise the SLGT risk area was adjusted to better match the higher storm coverage and threat for damaging gusts. ...KS/MO... To the west, scattered severe storms should continue to develop/intensify this afternoon ahead of an MCV/shortwave trough across parts of KS and MO. Very moist surface conditions are present with mid 70s F dewpoints contributing to moderate destabilization despite weak low and mid-level lapse rates. Enhanced mid-level wind fields observed by area VADs should support a few stronger storms including supercells capable of damaging gusts and possibly brief tornadoes this afternoon and evening. ...Great Basin... Isolated to scattered high-based thunderstorms remain likely across northern CA and western NV this evening. Steep low-level lapse rates will favor dry microburst potential with these storms or any more persistent clusters of storms able to evolve. Have adjusted the MRGL risk slightly west to better capture storms developing near the higher terrain. Otherwise, see the previous discussion for additional information. ..Lyons.. 07/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1142 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025/ ...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic States... Midday vapor imagery shows a fast-moving shortwave trough progressing eastward into Quebec. An associated cold front will move south-southeastward across New England this afternoon. Relatively hot/humid conditions ahead of the front will lead to widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms across southern New England and eastern portions of New York/Pennsylvania. These storms will track southeastward toward the coast through the early evening with damaging winds possible. ...Northern Plains including North Dakota... An upper ridge remains centered over the central Plains, with a weak southern-stream trough currently moving across Utah into Wyoming. Weak lift and increased mid-level moisture ahead of the system will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms by late afternoon across parts of eastern Montana and northeast Wyoming. Thermodynamic parameters are favorable for large hail in the stronger cells. It seems that these storms will tend to persist east-northeastward this evening and pose a risk of hail and locally damaging winds across North Dakota. ...Eastern Kansas/western Missouri... Regional WSR-88D VWP data continues to sample modestly enhanced low/mid-tropospheric flow in relation to a slow-moving MCV, notable from KEAX where 35-40 kt west-southwesterly flow persists between 3-5 km AGL. With a very moist air mass in place (low to middle 70s F surface dewpoints), intensifying storms could include supercells given some likely persistence of the enhanced flow field. Especially with a convectively reinforced surface boundary, a semi-focused corridor of damaging winds and brief tornado potential could evolve this afternoon into early evening. ...Northern California/western Nevada... Aside from the dry thunderstorm potential (see Fire Weather Day 1 Outlook), sufficient moisture/buoyancy may exist on the eastern and northern periphery of the slow-moving upper low, where mid-level temperatures (-12C at 500mb) are semi-cool, to allow for some hail and/or convectively enhanced wind gusts this afternoon through around sunset. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC...PARTS OF THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY...AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms remain capable of damaging wind gusts across parts of New England and the northern Mid-Atlantic States this afternoon/evening. Severe storms will also be possible across much of North Dakota as well as eastern Kansas into western Missouri. ...20z Update Northeast... Scattered to numerous thunderstorms ongoing ahead of a weak cold front across the Northeast and northern Mid Atlantic states will continue to pose a risk for isolated damaging gusts through this evening. The main focus for storm development/intensification along the front will continue to shift southeastward this afternoon. Trimming was done to the MRGL area mainly where the wind shift has already moved offshore. Otherwise the SLGT risk area was adjusted to better match the higher storm coverage and threat for damaging gusts. ...KS/MO... To the west, scattered severe storms should continue to develop/intensify this afternoon ahead of an MCV/shortwave trough across parts of KS and MO. Very moist surface conditions are present with mid 70s F dewpoints contributing to moderate destabilization despite weak low and mid-level lapse rates. Enhanced mid-level wind fields observed by area VADs should support a few stronger storms including supercells capable of damaging gusts and possibly brief tornadoes this afternoon and evening. ...Great Basin... Isolated to scattered high-based thunderstorms remain likely across northern CA and western NV this evening. Steep low-level lapse rates will favor dry microburst potential with these storms or any more persistent clusters of storms able to evolve. Have adjusted the MRGL risk slightly west to better capture storms developing near the higher terrain. Otherwise, see the previous discussion for additional information. ..Lyons.. 07/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1142 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025/ ...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic States... Midday vapor imagery shows a fast-moving shortwave trough progressing eastward into Quebec. An associated cold front will move south-southeastward across New England this afternoon. Relatively hot/humid conditions ahead of the front will lead to widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms across southern New England and eastern portions of New York/Pennsylvania. These storms will track southeastward toward the coast through the early evening with damaging winds possible. ...Northern Plains including North Dakota... An upper ridge remains centered over the central Plains, with a weak southern-stream trough currently moving across Utah into Wyoming. Weak lift and increased mid-level moisture ahead of the system will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms by late afternoon across parts of eastern Montana and northeast Wyoming. Thermodynamic parameters are favorable for large hail in the stronger cells. It seems that these storms will tend to persist east-northeastward this evening and pose a risk of hail and locally damaging winds across North Dakota. ...Eastern Kansas/western Missouri... Regional WSR-88D VWP data continues to sample modestly enhanced low/mid-tropospheric flow in relation to a slow-moving MCV, notable from KEAX where 35-40 kt west-southwesterly flow persists between 3-5 km AGL. With a very moist air mass in place (low to middle 70s F surface dewpoints), intensifying storms could include supercells given some likely persistence of the enhanced flow field. Especially with a convectively reinforced surface boundary, a semi-focused corridor of damaging winds and brief tornado potential could evolve this afternoon into early evening. ...Northern California/western Nevada... Aside from the dry thunderstorm potential (see Fire Weather Day 1 Outlook), sufficient moisture/buoyancy may exist on the eastern and northern periphery of the slow-moving upper low, where mid-level temperatures (-12C at 500mb) are semi-cool, to allow for some hail and/or convectively enhanced wind gusts this afternoon through around sunset. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC...PARTS OF THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY...AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms remain capable of damaging wind gusts across parts of New England and the northern Mid-Atlantic States this afternoon/evening. Severe storms will also be possible across much of North Dakota as well as eastern Kansas into western Missouri. ...20z Update Northeast... Scattered to numerous thunderstorms ongoing ahead of a weak cold front across the Northeast and northern Mid Atlantic states will continue to pose a risk for isolated damaging gusts through this evening. The main focus for storm development/intensification along the front will continue to shift southeastward this afternoon. Trimming was done to the MRGL area mainly where the wind shift has already moved offshore. Otherwise the SLGT risk area was adjusted to better match the higher storm coverage and threat for damaging gusts. ...KS/MO... To the west, scattered severe storms should continue to develop/intensify this afternoon ahead of an MCV/shortwave trough across parts of KS and MO. Very moist surface conditions are present with mid 70s F dewpoints contributing to moderate destabilization despite weak low and mid-level lapse rates. Enhanced mid-level wind fields observed by area VADs should support a few stronger storms including supercells capable of damaging gusts and possibly brief tornadoes this afternoon and evening. ...Great Basin... Isolated to scattered high-based thunderstorms remain likely across northern CA and western NV this evening. Steep low-level lapse rates will favor dry microburst potential with these storms or any more persistent clusters of storms able to evolve. Have adjusted the MRGL risk slightly west to better capture storms developing near the higher terrain. Otherwise, see the previous discussion for additional information. ..Lyons.. 07/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1142 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025/ ...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic States... Midday vapor imagery shows a fast-moving shortwave trough progressing eastward into Quebec. An associated cold front will move south-southeastward across New England this afternoon. Relatively hot/humid conditions ahead of the front will lead to widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms across southern New England and eastern portions of New York/Pennsylvania. These storms will track southeastward toward the coast through the early evening with damaging winds possible. ...Northern Plains including North Dakota... An upper ridge remains centered over the central Plains, with a weak southern-stream trough currently moving across Utah into Wyoming. Weak lift and increased mid-level moisture ahead of the system will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms by late afternoon across parts of eastern Montana and northeast Wyoming. Thermodynamic parameters are favorable for large hail in the stronger cells. It seems that these storms will tend to persist east-northeastward this evening and pose a risk of hail and locally damaging winds across North Dakota. ...Eastern Kansas/western Missouri... Regional WSR-88D VWP data continues to sample modestly enhanced low/mid-tropospheric flow in relation to a slow-moving MCV, notable from KEAX where 35-40 kt west-southwesterly flow persists between 3-5 km AGL. With a very moist air mass in place (low to middle 70s F surface dewpoints), intensifying storms could include supercells given some likely persistence of the enhanced flow field. Especially with a convectively reinforced surface boundary, a semi-focused corridor of damaging winds and brief tornado potential could evolve this afternoon into early evening. ...Northern California/western Nevada... Aside from the dry thunderstorm potential (see Fire Weather Day 1 Outlook), sufficient moisture/buoyancy may exist on the eastern and northern periphery of the slow-moving upper low, where mid-level temperatures (-12C at 500mb) are semi-cool, to allow for some hail and/or convectively enhanced wind gusts this afternoon through around sunset. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0240 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...Update... The Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area and Elevated area for dry and windy conditions were expanded for Saturday. The latest hi-res trends and forecast soundings suggest more coverage of high based convection will accompany the slow moving shortwave trough traversing CA. A small area of Scattered Dry Thunderstorms was considered for northern NV, where QPF output may generally remain below 0.25" over receptive fuels. However, given the weak steering flow expected with the thunderstorms it was not included for the time being. Farther south across portions of the Southwest and central Rockies, a deeply mixed boundary layer will promote momentum transfer of stronger flow aloft. Sustained wind speeds may exceed 20-25 mph for a few locations across portions of northwest AZ and southwest UT, where very dry mid to lower tropospheric profiles are expected atop receptive fuels. A Critical area was considered for these regions, but the extent and duration of the higher wind speeds precludes the need for an upgrade at this time. ..Barnes.. 07/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0145 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025/ ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will remain in place from the Great Plains eastward, as a mid-level trough continues to meander over the Interior West tomorrow (Saturday). During the day, multiple mid-level impulses will traverse the upper trough and crest the ridge. One mid-level impulse should graze the Great Basin, promoting enough upper support for dry and windy conditions over the Four Corners. 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds atop 10-20 percent RH and receptive fuels warrants the introduction of Elevated highlights. Furthermore, mid-level moisture will still linger over the northern Great Basin toward the northern Rockies, which will be lifted by the aforementioned mid-level impulse to support isolated to scattered high-based thunderstorm development. A mix of dry and wet thunderstorms will develop atop dry fuels, where ignition potential will exist, hence the introduction of isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0240 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...Update... The Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area and Elevated area for dry and windy conditions were expanded for Saturday. The latest hi-res trends and forecast soundings suggest more coverage of high based convection will accompany the slow moving shortwave trough traversing CA. A small area of Scattered Dry Thunderstorms was considered for northern NV, where QPF output may generally remain below 0.25" over receptive fuels. However, given the weak steering flow expected with the thunderstorms it was not included for the time being. Farther south across portions of the Southwest and central Rockies, a deeply mixed boundary layer will promote momentum transfer of stronger flow aloft. Sustained wind speeds may exceed 20-25 mph for a few locations across portions of northwest AZ and southwest UT, where very dry mid to lower tropospheric profiles are expected atop receptive fuels. A Critical area was considered for these regions, but the extent and duration of the higher wind speeds precludes the need for an upgrade at this time. ..Barnes.. 07/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0145 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025/ ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will remain in place from the Great Plains eastward, as a mid-level trough continues to meander over the Interior West tomorrow (Saturday). During the day, multiple mid-level impulses will traverse the upper trough and crest the ridge. One mid-level impulse should graze the Great Basin, promoting enough upper support for dry and windy conditions over the Four Corners. 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds atop 10-20 percent RH and receptive fuels warrants the introduction of Elevated highlights. Furthermore, mid-level moisture will still linger over the northern Great Basin toward the northern Rockies, which will be lifted by the aforementioned mid-level impulse to support isolated to scattered high-based thunderstorm development. A mix of dry and wet thunderstorms will develop atop dry fuels, where ignition potential will exist, hence the introduction of isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0240 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...Update... The Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area and Elevated area for dry and windy conditions were expanded for Saturday. The latest hi-res trends and forecast soundings suggest more coverage of high based convection will accompany the slow moving shortwave trough traversing CA. A small area of Scattered Dry Thunderstorms was considered for northern NV, where QPF output may generally remain below 0.25" over receptive fuels. However, given the weak steering flow expected with the thunderstorms it was not included for the time being. Farther south across portions of the Southwest and central Rockies, a deeply mixed boundary layer will promote momentum transfer of stronger flow aloft. Sustained wind speeds may exceed 20-25 mph for a few locations across portions of northwest AZ and southwest UT, where very dry mid to lower tropospheric profiles are expected atop receptive fuels. A Critical area was considered for these regions, but the extent and duration of the higher wind speeds precludes the need for an upgrade at this time. ..Barnes.. 07/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0145 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025/ ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will remain in place from the Great Plains eastward, as a mid-level trough continues to meander over the Interior West tomorrow (Saturday). During the day, multiple mid-level impulses will traverse the upper trough and crest the ridge. One mid-level impulse should graze the Great Basin, promoting enough upper support for dry and windy conditions over the Four Corners. 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds atop 10-20 percent RH and receptive fuels warrants the introduction of Elevated highlights. Furthermore, mid-level moisture will still linger over the northern Great Basin toward the northern Rockies, which will be lifted by the aforementioned mid-level impulse to support isolated to scattered high-based thunderstorm development. A mix of dry and wet thunderstorms will develop atop dry fuels, where ignition potential will exist, hence the introduction of isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0240 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...Update... The Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area and Elevated area for dry and windy conditions were expanded for Saturday. The latest hi-res trends and forecast soundings suggest more coverage of high based convection will accompany the slow moving shortwave trough traversing CA. A small area of Scattered Dry Thunderstorms was considered for northern NV, where QPF output may generally remain below 0.25" over receptive fuels. However, given the weak steering flow expected with the thunderstorms it was not included for the time being. Farther south across portions of the Southwest and central Rockies, a deeply mixed boundary layer will promote momentum transfer of stronger flow aloft. Sustained wind speeds may exceed 20-25 mph for a few locations across portions of northwest AZ and southwest UT, where very dry mid to lower tropospheric profiles are expected atop receptive fuels. A Critical area was considered for these regions, but the extent and duration of the higher wind speeds precludes the need for an upgrade at this time. ..Barnes.. 07/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0145 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025/ ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will remain in place from the Great Plains eastward, as a mid-level trough continues to meander over the Interior West tomorrow (Saturday). During the day, multiple mid-level impulses will traverse the upper trough and crest the ridge. One mid-level impulse should graze the Great Basin, promoting enough upper support for dry and windy conditions over the Four Corners. 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds atop 10-20 percent RH and receptive fuels warrants the introduction of Elevated highlights. Furthermore, mid-level moisture will still linger over the northern Great Basin toward the northern Rockies, which will be lifted by the aforementioned mid-level impulse to support isolated to scattered high-based thunderstorm development. A mix of dry and wet thunderstorms will develop atop dry fuels, where ignition potential will exist, hence the introduction of isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0240 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...Update... The Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area and Elevated area for dry and windy conditions were expanded for Saturday. The latest hi-res trends and forecast soundings suggest more coverage of high based convection will accompany the slow moving shortwave trough traversing CA. A small area of Scattered Dry Thunderstorms was considered for northern NV, where QPF output may generally remain below 0.25" over receptive fuels. However, given the weak steering flow expected with the thunderstorms it was not included for the time being. Farther south across portions of the Southwest and central Rockies, a deeply mixed boundary layer will promote momentum transfer of stronger flow aloft. Sustained wind speeds may exceed 20-25 mph for a few locations across portions of northwest AZ and southwest UT, where very dry mid to lower tropospheric profiles are expected atop receptive fuels. A Critical area was considered for these regions, but the extent and duration of the higher wind speeds precludes the need for an upgrade at this time. ..Barnes.. 07/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0145 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025/ ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will remain in place from the Great Plains eastward, as a mid-level trough continues to meander over the Interior West tomorrow (Saturday). During the day, multiple mid-level impulses will traverse the upper trough and crest the ridge. One mid-level impulse should graze the Great Basin, promoting enough upper support for dry and windy conditions over the Four Corners. 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds atop 10-20 percent RH and receptive fuels warrants the introduction of Elevated highlights. Furthermore, mid-level moisture will still linger over the northern Great Basin toward the northern Rockies, which will be lifted by the aforementioned mid-level impulse to support isolated to scattered high-based thunderstorm development. A mix of dry and wet thunderstorms will develop atop dry fuels, where ignition potential will exist, hence the introduction of isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0240 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...Update... The Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area and Elevated area for dry and windy conditions were expanded for Saturday. The latest hi-res trends and forecast soundings suggest more coverage of high based convection will accompany the slow moving shortwave trough traversing CA. A small area of Scattered Dry Thunderstorms was considered for northern NV, where QPF output may generally remain below 0.25" over receptive fuels. However, given the weak steering flow expected with the thunderstorms it was not included for the time being. Farther south across portions of the Southwest and central Rockies, a deeply mixed boundary layer will promote momentum transfer of stronger flow aloft. Sustained wind speeds may exceed 20-25 mph for a few locations across portions of northwest AZ and southwest UT, where very dry mid to lower tropospheric profiles are expected atop receptive fuels. A Critical area was considered for these regions, but the extent and duration of the higher wind speeds precludes the need for an upgrade at this time. ..Barnes.. 07/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0145 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025/ ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will remain in place from the Great Plains eastward, as a mid-level trough continues to meander over the Interior West tomorrow (Saturday). During the day, multiple mid-level impulses will traverse the upper trough and crest the ridge. One mid-level impulse should graze the Great Basin, promoting enough upper support for dry and windy conditions over the Four Corners. 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds atop 10-20 percent RH and receptive fuels warrants the introduction of Elevated highlights. Furthermore, mid-level moisture will still linger over the northern Great Basin toward the northern Rockies, which will be lifted by the aforementioned mid-level impulse to support isolated to scattered high-based thunderstorm development. A mix of dry and wet thunderstorms will develop atop dry fuels, where ignition potential will exist, hence the introduction of isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0240 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...Update... The Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area and Elevated area for dry and windy conditions were expanded for Saturday. The latest hi-res trends and forecast soundings suggest more coverage of high based convection will accompany the slow moving shortwave trough traversing CA. A small area of Scattered Dry Thunderstorms was considered for northern NV, where QPF output may generally remain below 0.25" over receptive fuels. However, given the weak steering flow expected with the thunderstorms it was not included for the time being. Farther south across portions of the Southwest and central Rockies, a deeply mixed boundary layer will promote momentum transfer of stronger flow aloft. Sustained wind speeds may exceed 20-25 mph for a few locations across portions of northwest AZ and southwest UT, where very dry mid to lower tropospheric profiles are expected atop receptive fuels. A Critical area was considered for these regions, but the extent and duration of the higher wind speeds precludes the need for an upgrade at this time. ..Barnes.. 07/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0145 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025/ ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will remain in place from the Great Plains eastward, as a mid-level trough continues to meander over the Interior West tomorrow (Saturday). During the day, multiple mid-level impulses will traverse the upper trough and crest the ridge. One mid-level impulse should graze the Great Basin, promoting enough upper support for dry and windy conditions over the Four Corners. 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds atop 10-20 percent RH and receptive fuels warrants the introduction of Elevated highlights. Furthermore, mid-level moisture will still linger over the northern Great Basin toward the northern Rockies, which will be lifted by the aforementioned mid-level impulse to support isolated to scattered high-based thunderstorm development. A mix of dry and wet thunderstorms will develop atop dry fuels, where ignition potential will exist, hence the introduction of isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0240 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...Update... The Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area and Elevated area for dry and windy conditions were expanded for Saturday. The latest hi-res trends and forecast soundings suggest more coverage of high based convection will accompany the slow moving shortwave trough traversing CA. A small area of Scattered Dry Thunderstorms was considered for northern NV, where QPF output may generally remain below 0.25" over receptive fuels. However, given the weak steering flow expected with the thunderstorms it was not included for the time being. Farther south across portions of the Southwest and central Rockies, a deeply mixed boundary layer will promote momentum transfer of stronger flow aloft. Sustained wind speeds may exceed 20-25 mph for a few locations across portions of northwest AZ and southwest UT, where very dry mid to lower tropospheric profiles are expected atop receptive fuels. A Critical area was considered for these regions, but the extent and duration of the higher wind speeds precludes the need for an upgrade at this time. ..Barnes.. 07/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0145 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025/ ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will remain in place from the Great Plains eastward, as a mid-level trough continues to meander over the Interior West tomorrow (Saturday). During the day, multiple mid-level impulses will traverse the upper trough and crest the ridge. One mid-level impulse should graze the Great Basin, promoting enough upper support for dry and windy conditions over the Four Corners. 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds atop 10-20 percent RH and receptive fuels warrants the introduction of Elevated highlights. Furthermore, mid-level moisture will still linger over the northern Great Basin toward the northern Rockies, which will be lifted by the aforementioned mid-level impulse to support isolated to scattered high-based thunderstorm development. A mix of dry and wet thunderstorms will develop atop dry fuels, where ignition potential will exist, hence the introduction of isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0240 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...Update... The Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area and Elevated area for dry and windy conditions were expanded for Saturday. The latest hi-res trends and forecast soundings suggest more coverage of high based convection will accompany the slow moving shortwave trough traversing CA. A small area of Scattered Dry Thunderstorms was considered for northern NV, where QPF output may generally remain below 0.25" over receptive fuels. However, given the weak steering flow expected with the thunderstorms it was not included for the time being. Farther south across portions of the Southwest and central Rockies, a deeply mixed boundary layer will promote momentum transfer of stronger flow aloft. Sustained wind speeds may exceed 20-25 mph for a few locations across portions of northwest AZ and southwest UT, where very dry mid to lower tropospheric profiles are expected atop receptive fuels. A Critical area was considered for these regions, but the extent and duration of the higher wind speeds precludes the need for an upgrade at this time. ..Barnes.. 07/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0145 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025/ ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will remain in place from the Great Plains eastward, as a mid-level trough continues to meander over the Interior West tomorrow (Saturday). During the day, multiple mid-level impulses will traverse the upper trough and crest the ridge. One mid-level impulse should graze the Great Basin, promoting enough upper support for dry and windy conditions over the Four Corners. 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds atop 10-20 percent RH and receptive fuels warrants the introduction of Elevated highlights. Furthermore, mid-level moisture will still linger over the northern Great Basin toward the northern Rockies, which will be lifted by the aforementioned mid-level impulse to support isolated to scattered high-based thunderstorm development. A mix of dry and wet thunderstorms will develop atop dry fuels, where ignition potential will exist, hence the introduction of isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0240 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...Update... The Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area and Elevated area for dry and windy conditions were expanded for Saturday. The latest hi-res trends and forecast soundings suggest more coverage of high based convection will accompany the slow moving shortwave trough traversing CA. A small area of Scattered Dry Thunderstorms was considered for northern NV, where QPF output may generally remain below 0.25" over receptive fuels. However, given the weak steering flow expected with the thunderstorms it was not included for the time being. Farther south across portions of the Southwest and central Rockies, a deeply mixed boundary layer will promote momentum transfer of stronger flow aloft. Sustained wind speeds may exceed 20-25 mph for a few locations across portions of northwest AZ and southwest UT, where very dry mid to lower tropospheric profiles are expected atop receptive fuels. A Critical area was considered for these regions, but the extent and duration of the higher wind speeds precludes the need for an upgrade at this time. ..Barnes.. 07/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0145 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025/ ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will remain in place from the Great Plains eastward, as a mid-level trough continues to meander over the Interior West tomorrow (Saturday). During the day, multiple mid-level impulses will traverse the upper trough and crest the ridge. One mid-level impulse should graze the Great Basin, promoting enough upper support for dry and windy conditions over the Four Corners. 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds atop 10-20 percent RH and receptive fuels warrants the introduction of Elevated highlights. Furthermore, mid-level moisture will still linger over the northern Great Basin toward the northern Rockies, which will be lifted by the aforementioned mid-level impulse to support isolated to scattered high-based thunderstorm development. A mix of dry and wet thunderstorms will develop atop dry fuels, where ignition potential will exist, hence the introduction of isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0240 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...Update... The Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area and Elevated area for dry and windy conditions were expanded for Saturday. The latest hi-res trends and forecast soundings suggest more coverage of high based convection will accompany the slow moving shortwave trough traversing CA. A small area of Scattered Dry Thunderstorms was considered for northern NV, where QPF output may generally remain below 0.25" over receptive fuels. However, given the weak steering flow expected with the thunderstorms it was not included for the time being. Farther south across portions of the Southwest and central Rockies, a deeply mixed boundary layer will promote momentum transfer of stronger flow aloft. Sustained wind speeds may exceed 20-25 mph for a few locations across portions of northwest AZ and southwest UT, where very dry mid to lower tropospheric profiles are expected atop receptive fuels. A Critical area was considered for these regions, but the extent and duration of the higher wind speeds precludes the need for an upgrade at this time. ..Barnes.. 07/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0145 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025/ ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will remain in place from the Great Plains eastward, as a mid-level trough continues to meander over the Interior West tomorrow (Saturday). During the day, multiple mid-level impulses will traverse the upper trough and crest the ridge. One mid-level impulse should graze the Great Basin, promoting enough upper support for dry and windy conditions over the Four Corners. 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds atop 10-20 percent RH and receptive fuels warrants the introduction of Elevated highlights. Furthermore, mid-level moisture will still linger over the northern Great Basin toward the northern Rockies, which will be lifted by the aforementioned mid-level impulse to support isolated to scattered high-based thunderstorm development. A mix of dry and wet thunderstorms will develop atop dry fuels, where ignition potential will exist, hence the introduction of isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0240 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...Update... The Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area and Elevated area for dry and windy conditions were expanded for Saturday. The latest hi-res trends and forecast soundings suggest more coverage of high based convection will accompany the slow moving shortwave trough traversing CA. A small area of Scattered Dry Thunderstorms was considered for northern NV, where QPF output may generally remain below 0.25" over receptive fuels. However, given the weak steering flow expected with the thunderstorms it was not included for the time being. Farther south across portions of the Southwest and central Rockies, a deeply mixed boundary layer will promote momentum transfer of stronger flow aloft. Sustained wind speeds may exceed 20-25 mph for a few locations across portions of northwest AZ and southwest UT, where very dry mid to lower tropospheric profiles are expected atop receptive fuels. A Critical area was considered for these regions, but the extent and duration of the higher wind speeds precludes the need for an upgrade at this time. ..Barnes.. 07/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0145 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025/ ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will remain in place from the Great Plains eastward, as a mid-level trough continues to meander over the Interior West tomorrow (Saturday). During the day, multiple mid-level impulses will traverse the upper trough and crest the ridge. One mid-level impulse should graze the Great Basin, promoting enough upper support for dry and windy conditions over the Four Corners. 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds atop 10-20 percent RH and receptive fuels warrants the introduction of Elevated highlights. Furthermore, mid-level moisture will still linger over the northern Great Basin toward the northern Rockies, which will be lifted by the aforementioned mid-level impulse to support isolated to scattered high-based thunderstorm development. A mix of dry and wet thunderstorms will develop atop dry fuels, where ignition potential will exist, hence the introduction of isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more