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MD 1785 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF FAR EASTERN MONTANA INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1785 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0643 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Areas affected...portions of far eastern Montana into central North Dakota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 252343Z - 260145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...The severe threat may increase into the evening in tandem with storm coverage, especially if MCS upscale growth occurs. Severe hail may accompany discrete storms, with severe wind occurring with more linear structures. DISCUSSION...A supercell is in progress across east-central MT, with more multicellular storms in progress to the northeast, along the MT/ND border. These storms continue to advance eastward amid a more moist, unstable, less capped airmass, characterized by 3000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE. A weak 500 mb vort max embedded in the larger scale mid-level flow is currently traversing central MT, and as it advances eastward, it may encourage an increase in storm coverage. Despite weaker vertical wind shear, enough buoyancy is in place to support a severe threat. The ongoing, more discrete storms may pose a threat for severe hail. Severe gusts may occur with any storms, but may become more likely if storm mergers occur, or if an MCS can develop. A WW issuance is possible, especially if signs of upscale growth are observed. ..Squitieri/Mosier.. 07/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...BYZ...GGW... LAT...LON 46510537 47570491 48050447 48420364 48590023 48189958 47769930 47349917 46799926 46429985 46110121 46110238 46170404 46200475 46510537 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0801 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Valid 260100Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH DAKOTA AND VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms remain capable of damaging wind gusts and large hail across portions of the northern Plains. Isolated strong to severe storms will also be possible from the mid-Atlantic west through the Ohio Valley and central/southern Plains, and across northern California and northwest Nevada. ...Northeast/mid-Atlantic... Isolated strong/severe storms continue across PA in advance of a weak frontal boundary, while storms farther east continue to move offshore across portions of NJ/NY. Latest objective analysis shows pockets of moderate instability (MLCAPE at or above 2000 J/kg) across the northern Delmarva Peninsula, and some potential for a stronger storm or two will exist in this area this evening. Overall, the severe threat should remain isolated through the remainder of the evening, and diminish thereafter with the onset of gradual nocturnal cooling/increasing CINH. ...Western Oklahoma/Eastern Kansas into the OH Valley... A few clusters of thunderstorms continue within a moderate/strongly unstable air mass in the vicinity of a nearly stationary frontal boundary from northern KS east across the OH Valley, and along a confluence zone across western OK. The magnitude of instability will remain sufficient for pockets of damaging wind potential with any cluster that can become more organized this evening. ...Great Basin/Northern CA... Thunderstorms will continue this evening within a weakly unstable air mass east of an upper-level trough. Steep low-level lapse rates will result in an isolated damaging wind risk with stronger updrafts. ...Central/northern Plains... A couple clusters of strong/severe thunderstorms continue in the general vicinity of the MT/ND border region, with reports of large hail over the past couple hours. These storms are located along the southern periphery of somewhat stronger mid-level flow, and will moving into a strongly unstable air mass over ND with MLCAPE in the 2000 to 4000 J/kg range. Storms continue to show signs of organization this evening, and a more concentrated risk for damaging winds and large hail will exist in association with recently issued Severe Thunderstorm Watch 543. ..Bunting.. 07/26/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0801 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Valid 260100Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH DAKOTA AND VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms remain capable of damaging wind gusts and large hail across portions of the northern Plains. Isolated strong to severe storms will also be possible from the mid-Atlantic west through the Ohio Valley and central/southern Plains, and across northern California and northwest Nevada. ...Northeast/mid-Atlantic... Isolated strong/severe storms continue across PA in advance of a weak frontal boundary, while storms farther east continue to move offshore across portions of NJ/NY. Latest objective analysis shows pockets of moderate instability (MLCAPE at or above 2000 J/kg) across the northern Delmarva Peninsula, and some potential for a stronger storm or two will exist in this area this evening. Overall, the severe threat should remain isolated through the remainder of the evening, and diminish thereafter with the onset of gradual nocturnal cooling/increasing CINH. ...Western Oklahoma/Eastern Kansas into the OH Valley... A few clusters of thunderstorms continue within a moderate/strongly unstable air mass in the vicinity of a nearly stationary frontal boundary from northern KS east across the OH Valley, and along a confluence zone across western OK. The magnitude of instability will remain sufficient for pockets of damaging wind potential with any cluster that can become more organized this evening. ...Great Basin/Northern CA... Thunderstorms will continue this evening within a weakly unstable air mass east of an upper-level trough. Steep low-level lapse rates will result in an isolated damaging wind risk with stronger updrafts. ...Central/northern Plains... A couple clusters of strong/severe thunderstorms continue in the general vicinity of the MT/ND border region, with reports of large hail over the past couple hours. These storms are located along the southern periphery of somewhat stronger mid-level flow, and will moving into a strongly unstable air mass over ND with MLCAPE in the 2000 to 4000 J/kg range. Storms continue to show signs of organization this evening, and a more concentrated risk for damaging winds and large hail will exist in association with recently issued Severe Thunderstorm Watch 543. ..Bunting.. 07/26/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0801 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Valid 260100Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH DAKOTA AND VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms remain capable of damaging wind gusts and large hail across portions of the northern Plains. Isolated strong to severe storms will also be possible from the mid-Atlantic west through the Ohio Valley and central/southern Plains, and across northern California and northwest Nevada. ...Northeast/mid-Atlantic... Isolated strong/severe storms continue across PA in advance of a weak frontal boundary, while storms farther east continue to move offshore across portions of NJ/NY. Latest objective analysis shows pockets of moderate instability (MLCAPE at or above 2000 J/kg) across the northern Delmarva Peninsula, and some potential for a stronger storm or two will exist in this area this evening. Overall, the severe threat should remain isolated through the remainder of the evening, and diminish thereafter with the onset of gradual nocturnal cooling/increasing CINH. ...Western Oklahoma/Eastern Kansas into the OH Valley... A few clusters of thunderstorms continue within a moderate/strongly unstable air mass in the vicinity of a nearly stationary frontal boundary from northern KS east across the OH Valley, and along a confluence zone across western OK. The magnitude of instability will remain sufficient for pockets of damaging wind potential with any cluster that can become more organized this evening. ...Great Basin/Northern CA... Thunderstorms will continue this evening within a weakly unstable air mass east of an upper-level trough. Steep low-level lapse rates will result in an isolated damaging wind risk with stronger updrafts. ...Central/northern Plains... A couple clusters of strong/severe thunderstorms continue in the general vicinity of the MT/ND border region, with reports of large hail over the past couple hours. These storms are located along the southern periphery of somewhat stronger mid-level flow, and will moving into a strongly unstable air mass over ND with MLCAPE in the 2000 to 4000 J/kg range. Storms continue to show signs of organization this evening, and a more concentrated risk for damaging winds and large hail will exist in association with recently issued Severe Thunderstorm Watch 543. ..Bunting.. 07/26/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0801 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Valid 260100Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH DAKOTA AND VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms remain capable of damaging wind gusts and large hail across portions of the northern Plains. Isolated strong to severe storms will also be possible from the mid-Atlantic west through the Ohio Valley and central/southern Plains, and across northern California and northwest Nevada. ...Northeast/mid-Atlantic... Isolated strong/severe storms continue across PA in advance of a weak frontal boundary, while storms farther east continue to move offshore across portions of NJ/NY. Latest objective analysis shows pockets of moderate instability (MLCAPE at or above 2000 J/kg) across the northern Delmarva Peninsula, and some potential for a stronger storm or two will exist in this area this evening. Overall, the severe threat should remain isolated through the remainder of the evening, and diminish thereafter with the onset of gradual nocturnal cooling/increasing CINH. ...Western Oklahoma/Eastern Kansas into the OH Valley... A few clusters of thunderstorms continue within a moderate/strongly unstable air mass in the vicinity of a nearly stationary frontal boundary from northern KS east across the OH Valley, and along a confluence zone across western OK. The magnitude of instability will remain sufficient for pockets of damaging wind potential with any cluster that can become more organized this evening. ...Great Basin/Northern CA... Thunderstorms will continue this evening within a weakly unstable air mass east of an upper-level trough. Steep low-level lapse rates will result in an isolated damaging wind risk with stronger updrafts. ...Central/northern Plains... A couple clusters of strong/severe thunderstorms continue in the general vicinity of the MT/ND border region, with reports of large hail over the past couple hours. These storms are located along the southern periphery of somewhat stronger mid-level flow, and will moving into a strongly unstable air mass over ND with MLCAPE in the 2000 to 4000 J/kg range. Storms continue to show signs of organization this evening, and a more concentrated risk for damaging winds and large hail will exist in association with recently issued Severe Thunderstorm Watch 543. ..Bunting.. 07/26/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0801 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Valid 260100Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH DAKOTA AND VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms remain capable of damaging wind gusts and large hail across portions of the northern Plains. Isolated strong to severe storms will also be possible from the mid-Atlantic west through the Ohio Valley and central/southern Plains, and across northern California and northwest Nevada. ...Northeast/mid-Atlantic... Isolated strong/severe storms continue across PA in advance of a weak frontal boundary, while storms farther east continue to move offshore across portions of NJ/NY. Latest objective analysis shows pockets of moderate instability (MLCAPE at or above 2000 J/kg) across the northern Delmarva Peninsula, and some potential for a stronger storm or two will exist in this area this evening. Overall, the severe threat should remain isolated through the remainder of the evening, and diminish thereafter with the onset of gradual nocturnal cooling/increasing CINH. ...Western Oklahoma/Eastern Kansas into the OH Valley... A few clusters of thunderstorms continue within a moderate/strongly unstable air mass in the vicinity of a nearly stationary frontal boundary from northern KS east across the OH Valley, and along a confluence zone across western OK. The magnitude of instability will remain sufficient for pockets of damaging wind potential with any cluster that can become more organized this evening. ...Great Basin/Northern CA... Thunderstorms will continue this evening within a weakly unstable air mass east of an upper-level trough. Steep low-level lapse rates will result in an isolated damaging wind risk with stronger updrafts. ...Central/northern Plains... A couple clusters of strong/severe thunderstorms continue in the general vicinity of the MT/ND border region, with reports of large hail over the past couple hours. These storms are located along the southern periphery of somewhat stronger mid-level flow, and will moving into a strongly unstable air mass over ND with MLCAPE in the 2000 to 4000 J/kg range. Storms continue to show signs of organization this evening, and a more concentrated risk for damaging winds and large hail will exist in association with recently issued Severe Thunderstorm Watch 543. ..Bunting.. 07/26/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0801 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Valid 260100Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH DAKOTA AND VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms remain capable of damaging wind gusts and large hail across portions of the northern Plains. Isolated strong to severe storms will also be possible from the mid-Atlantic west through the Ohio Valley and central/southern Plains, and across northern California and northwest Nevada. ...Northeast/mid-Atlantic... Isolated strong/severe storms continue across PA in advance of a weak frontal boundary, while storms farther east continue to move offshore across portions of NJ/NY. Latest objective analysis shows pockets of moderate instability (MLCAPE at or above 2000 J/kg) across the northern Delmarva Peninsula, and some potential for a stronger storm or two will exist in this area this evening. Overall, the severe threat should remain isolated through the remainder of the evening, and diminish thereafter with the onset of gradual nocturnal cooling/increasing CINH. ...Western Oklahoma/Eastern Kansas into the OH Valley... A few clusters of thunderstorms continue within a moderate/strongly unstable air mass in the vicinity of a nearly stationary frontal boundary from northern KS east across the OH Valley, and along a confluence zone across western OK. The magnitude of instability will remain sufficient for pockets of damaging wind potential with any cluster that can become more organized this evening. ...Great Basin/Northern CA... Thunderstorms will continue this evening within a weakly unstable air mass east of an upper-level trough. Steep low-level lapse rates will result in an isolated damaging wind risk with stronger updrafts. ...Central/northern Plains... A couple clusters of strong/severe thunderstorms continue in the general vicinity of the MT/ND border region, with reports of large hail over the past couple hours. These storms are located along the southern periphery of somewhat stronger mid-level flow, and will moving into a strongly unstable air mass over ND with MLCAPE in the 2000 to 4000 J/kg range. Storms continue to show signs of organization this evening, and a more concentrated risk for damaging winds and large hail will exist in association with recently issued Severe Thunderstorm Watch 543. ..Bunting.. 07/26/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0801 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Valid 260100Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH DAKOTA AND VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms remain capable of damaging wind gusts and large hail across portions of the northern Plains. Isolated strong to severe storms will also be possible from the mid-Atlantic west through the Ohio Valley and central/southern Plains, and across northern California and northwest Nevada. ...Northeast/mid-Atlantic... Isolated strong/severe storms continue across PA in advance of a weak frontal boundary, while storms farther east continue to move offshore across portions of NJ/NY. Latest objective analysis shows pockets of moderate instability (MLCAPE at or above 2000 J/kg) across the northern Delmarva Peninsula, and some potential for a stronger storm or two will exist in this area this evening. Overall, the severe threat should remain isolated through the remainder of the evening, and diminish thereafter with the onset of gradual nocturnal cooling/increasing CINH. ...Western Oklahoma/Eastern Kansas into the OH Valley... A few clusters of thunderstorms continue within a moderate/strongly unstable air mass in the vicinity of a nearly stationary frontal boundary from northern KS east across the OH Valley, and along a confluence zone across western OK. The magnitude of instability will remain sufficient for pockets of damaging wind potential with any cluster that can become more organized this evening. ...Great Basin/Northern CA... Thunderstorms will continue this evening within a weakly unstable air mass east of an upper-level trough. Steep low-level lapse rates will result in an isolated damaging wind risk with stronger updrafts. ...Central/northern Plains... A couple clusters of strong/severe thunderstorms continue in the general vicinity of the MT/ND border region, with reports of large hail over the past couple hours. These storms are located along the southern periphery of somewhat stronger mid-level flow, and will moving into a strongly unstable air mass over ND with MLCAPE in the 2000 to 4000 J/kg range. Storms continue to show signs of organization this evening, and a more concentrated risk for damaging winds and large hail will exist in association with recently issued Severe Thunderstorm Watch 543. ..Bunting.. 07/26/2025 Read more

MD 1783 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR WESTERN/NORTH-CENTRAL OK INTO EXTREME SOUTH-CENTRAL KS
Mesoscale Discussion 1783 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0520 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Areas affected...western/north-central OK into extreme south-central KS Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 252220Z - 260045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Storms with localized strong/damaging gusts are possible into this evening. DISCUSSION...One storm has developed across north-central OK late this afternoon, with other cumulus building in the vicinity of a surface boundary from west-central OK into south-central KS. Midlevel lapse rates are weak, but strong heating of a moist environment has resulted in MLCAPE increasing to near above 2500 J/kg, and storm coverage should increase into the early evening. This region is on the southern periphery of modestly enhanced midlevel flow associated with an MCV across northern KS. Effective shear of around 20 kt and steep low-level lapse rates could support weakly organized storms capable of localized downbursts and strong outflow winds into this evening. ..Dean/Mosier.. 07/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN... LAT...LON 35189911 36639831 37459766 37459710 37319643 36789609 35539757 34959863 35189911 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH Read more

MD 1784 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 542... FOR SOUTHEAST PA...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NJ...DE...NORTHERN/EASTERN MD
Mesoscale Discussion 1784 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0609 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Areas affected...Southeast PA...central/southern NJ...DE...northern/eastern MD Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 542... Valid 252309Z - 260045Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 542 continues. SUMMARY...In the wake of earlier storms, locally damaging winds remain possible before remaining storms weaken later this evening. DISCUSSION...A storm cluster with a history of producing wind damage is approaching the southern NJ coast as of 23 UTC this evening. Pockets of moderate buoyancy persist in the wake of earlier convection, and also south of the outflow into parts of eastern MD and DE. Effective shear of 30-40 kt remains favorable for organized convection, and a few stronger cells/clusters are possible through dusk, with locally damaging wind possible. Eventually, nocturnal cooling and the stabilizing effects of outflow should lead to a weakening trend later this evening. ..Dean.. 07/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX... LAT...LON 40277754 40937703 40817547 40397455 39717388 39187419 38387477 38117562 38727651 39457761 39857754 40277754 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH Read more

WW 0543 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0543 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0543 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0543 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0543 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0543 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0542 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 542 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE UNV TO 5 WSW CXY TO 30 ENE CXY TO 15 WSW ABE TO 20 E ABE TO 15 N JFK TO 30 WSW GON TO EWB TO 20 NNW HYA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1779 ..JEWELL..07/25/25 ATTN...WFO...OKX...BOX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 542 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS DEC003-252140- DE . DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE NEW CASTLE MAC001-007-019-252140- MA . MASSACHUSETTS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARNSTABLE DUKES NANTUCKET NJC001-005-007-011-015-017-019-021-023-025-029-033-035-039- 252140- NJ . NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0542 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 542 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE UNV TO 5 WSW CXY TO 30 ENE CXY TO 15 WSW ABE TO 20 E ABE TO 15 N JFK TO 30 WSW GON TO EWB TO 20 NNW HYA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1779 ..JEWELL..07/25/25 ATTN...WFO...OKX...BOX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 542 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS DEC003-252140- DE . DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE NEW CASTLE MAC001-007-019-252140- MA . MASSACHUSETTS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARNSTABLE DUKES NANTUCKET NJC001-005-007-011-015-017-019-021-023-025-029-033-035-039- 252140- NJ . NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0542 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 542 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE UNV TO 5 WSW CXY TO 30 ENE CXY TO 15 WSW ABE TO 20 E ABE TO 15 N JFK TO 30 WSW GON TO EWB TO 20 NNW HYA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1779 ..JEWELL..07/25/25 ATTN...WFO...OKX...BOX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 542 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS DEC003-252140- DE . DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE NEW CASTLE MAC001-007-019-252140- MA . MASSACHUSETTS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARNSTABLE DUKES NANTUCKET NJC001-005-007-011-015-017-019-021-023-025-029-033-035-039- 252140- NJ . NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0542 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 542 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE UNV TO 5 WSW CXY TO 30 ENE CXY TO 15 WSW ABE TO 20 E ABE TO 15 N JFK TO 30 WSW GON TO EWB TO 20 NNW HYA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1779 ..JEWELL..07/25/25 ATTN...WFO...OKX...BOX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 542 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS DEC003-252140- DE . DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE NEW CASTLE MAC001-007-019-252140- MA . MASSACHUSETTS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARNSTABLE DUKES NANTUCKET NJC001-005-007-011-015-017-019-021-023-025-029-033-035-039- 252140- NJ . NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 542 SEVERE TSTM CT DE MA NJ NY PA RI CW 251745Z - 260100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 542 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 145 PM EDT Fri Jul 25 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Connecticut Northern Delaware Massachusetts New Jersey Southeast New York Eastern Pennsylvania Rhode Island Coastal Waters * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 145 PM until 900 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely SUMMARY...Clusters of storms will continue to develop and intensify early this afternoon with damaging winds possible as storms move generally southeastward across the region through late afternoon and early evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 20 miles north northeast of New Bedford MA to 15 miles northwest of Harrisburg PA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 29025. ...Guyer Read more

MD 1785 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF FAR EASTERN MONTANA INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1785 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0643 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Areas affected...portions of far eastern Montana into central North Dakota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 252343Z - 260145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...The severe threat may increase into the evening in tandem with storm coverage, especially if MCS upscale growth occurs. Severe hail may accompany discrete storms, with severe wind occurring with more linear structures. DISCUSSION...A supercell is in progress across east-central MT, with more multicellular storms in progress to the northeast, along the MT/ND border. These storms continue to advance eastward amid a more moist, unstable, less capped airmass, characterized by 3000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE. A weak 500 mb vort max embedded in the larger scale mid-level flow is currently traversing central MT, and as it advances eastward, it may encourage an increase in storm coverage. Despite weaker vertical wind shear, enough buoyancy is in place to support a severe threat. The ongoing, more discrete storms may pose a threat for severe hail. Severe gusts may occur with any storms, but may become more likely if storm mergers occur, or if an MCS can develop. A WW issuance is possible, especially if signs of upscale growth are observed. ..Squitieri/Mosier.. 07/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...BYZ...GGW... LAT...LON 46510537 47570491 48050447 48420364 48590023 48189958 47769930 47349917 46799926 46429985 46110121 46110238 46170404 46200475 46510537 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

MD 1784 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 542... FOR SOUTHEAST PA...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NJ...DE...NORTHERN/EASTERN MD
Mesoscale Discussion 1784 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0609 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Areas affected...Southeast PA...central/southern NJ...DE...northern/eastern MD Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 542... Valid 252309Z - 260045Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 542 continues. SUMMARY...In the wake of earlier storms, locally damaging winds remain possible before remaining storms weaken later this evening. DISCUSSION...A storm cluster with a history of producing wind damage is approaching the southern NJ coast as of 23 UTC this evening. Pockets of moderate buoyancy persist in the wake of earlier convection, and also south of the outflow into parts of eastern MD and DE. Effective shear of 30-40 kt remains favorable for organized convection, and a few stronger cells/clusters are possible through dusk, with locally damaging wind possible. Eventually, nocturnal cooling and the stabilizing effects of outflow should lead to a weakening trend later this evening. ..Dean.. 07/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX... LAT...LON 40277754 40937703 40817547 40397455 39717388 39187419 38387477 38117562 38727651 39457761 39857754 40277754 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH Read more