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SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL/EASTERN MONTANA...PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from the northern Rockies into Mid-Missouri and Mid-Mississippi Valleys. ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging will persist across much of the central and southern CONUS on Monday. As this ridge amplifies into the Northwest, stronger mid-level winds will develop in the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. A surface low will modestly deepen and become more well-defined in the central Plains. The intensification of the upper trough will help to push a modest surface cold front southward into Tuesday morning. A pseudo warm front will be attendant to the low and extend southeastward through southern Minnesota into northern Illinois. A very moist airmass will be in place south of this boundary. Farther west, modest low-level moisture will be pushed into the Northern Rockies. A zone of stronger mid-level winds will stretch from the Great Basin into the Northern Rockies. Convection is likely over the terrain. ...South Dakota into the Upper Midwest... Convective development during the afternoon will be possible from the Black Hills and eastward where the surface low will intersect the cold front. Given continued warm temperatures aloft and uncertain mid-level forcing, it is not clear where the favored corridor for development will be. The stronger surface low and modest westerlies aloft will promote 40-50 kts of effective shear near the boundary. Once again, strong to extreme buoyancy is possible. Given the temperature-dewpoint spreads at the surface and the boundary-parallel shear, upscale growth would likely be quick. An MCS could then develop and progress along the boundary. By the evening, the cold front should begin to move south and a modest low-level jet will increase, directed into the boundary. Greater coverage of storms would then be possible where MLCIN remains weak. This is another scenario where higher wind probabilities may eventually be needed as uncertainty decreases. ...Montana... Though moisture will be somewhat modest (perhaps dewpoints in the 50s F), it should be sufficient at this elevation for storm development over the terrain. Low-level easterlies and modest westerlies aloft will similarly bring 40-50 kts of effective shear. Lack of greater moisture will likely limit how intense storms will be, but a cluster or two could produce severe wind gusts and large hail. ..Wendt.. 07/26/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL/EASTERN MONTANA...PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from the northern Rockies into Mid-Missouri and Mid-Mississippi Valleys. ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging will persist across much of the central and southern CONUS on Monday. As this ridge amplifies into the Northwest, stronger mid-level winds will develop in the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. A surface low will modestly deepen and become more well-defined in the central Plains. The intensification of the upper trough will help to push a modest surface cold front southward into Tuesday morning. A pseudo warm front will be attendant to the low and extend southeastward through southern Minnesota into northern Illinois. A very moist airmass will be in place south of this boundary. Farther west, modest low-level moisture will be pushed into the Northern Rockies. A zone of stronger mid-level winds will stretch from the Great Basin into the Northern Rockies. Convection is likely over the terrain. ...South Dakota into the Upper Midwest... Convective development during the afternoon will be possible from the Black Hills and eastward where the surface low will intersect the cold front. Given continued warm temperatures aloft and uncertain mid-level forcing, it is not clear where the favored corridor for development will be. The stronger surface low and modest westerlies aloft will promote 40-50 kts of effective shear near the boundary. Once again, strong to extreme buoyancy is possible. Given the temperature-dewpoint spreads at the surface and the boundary-parallel shear, upscale growth would likely be quick. An MCS could then develop and progress along the boundary. By the evening, the cold front should begin to move south and a modest low-level jet will increase, directed into the boundary. Greater coverage of storms would then be possible where MLCIN remains weak. This is another scenario where higher wind probabilities may eventually be needed as uncertainty decreases. ...Montana... Though moisture will be somewhat modest (perhaps dewpoints in the 50s F), it should be sufficient at this elevation for storm development over the terrain. Low-level easterlies and modest westerlies aloft will similarly bring 40-50 kts of effective shear. Lack of greater moisture will likely limit how intense storms will be, but a cluster or two could produce severe wind gusts and large hail. ..Wendt.. 07/26/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL/EASTERN MONTANA...PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from the northern Rockies into Mid-Missouri and Mid-Mississippi Valleys. ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging will persist across much of the central and southern CONUS on Monday. As this ridge amplifies into the Northwest, stronger mid-level winds will develop in the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. A surface low will modestly deepen and become more well-defined in the central Plains. The intensification of the upper trough will help to push a modest surface cold front southward into Tuesday morning. A pseudo warm front will be attendant to the low and extend southeastward through southern Minnesota into northern Illinois. A very moist airmass will be in place south of this boundary. Farther west, modest low-level moisture will be pushed into the Northern Rockies. A zone of stronger mid-level winds will stretch from the Great Basin into the Northern Rockies. Convection is likely over the terrain. ...South Dakota into the Upper Midwest... Convective development during the afternoon will be possible from the Black Hills and eastward where the surface low will intersect the cold front. Given continued warm temperatures aloft and uncertain mid-level forcing, it is not clear where the favored corridor for development will be. The stronger surface low and modest westerlies aloft will promote 40-50 kts of effective shear near the boundary. Once again, strong to extreme buoyancy is possible. Given the temperature-dewpoint spreads at the surface and the boundary-parallel shear, upscale growth would likely be quick. An MCS could then develop and progress along the boundary. By the evening, the cold front should begin to move south and a modest low-level jet will increase, directed into the boundary. Greater coverage of storms would then be possible where MLCIN remains weak. This is another scenario where higher wind probabilities may eventually be needed as uncertainty decreases. ...Montana... Though moisture will be somewhat modest (perhaps dewpoints in the 50s F), it should be sufficient at this elevation for storm development over the terrain. Low-level easterlies and modest westerlies aloft will similarly bring 40-50 kts of effective shear. Lack of greater moisture will likely limit how intense storms will be, but a cluster or two could produce severe wind gusts and large hail. ..Wendt.. 07/26/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL/EASTERN MONTANA...PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from the northern Rockies into Mid-Missouri and Mid-Mississippi Valleys. ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging will persist across much of the central and southern CONUS on Monday. As this ridge amplifies into the Northwest, stronger mid-level winds will develop in the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. A surface low will modestly deepen and become more well-defined in the central Plains. The intensification of the upper trough will help to push a modest surface cold front southward into Tuesday morning. A pseudo warm front will be attendant to the low and extend southeastward through southern Minnesota into northern Illinois. A very moist airmass will be in place south of this boundary. Farther west, modest low-level moisture will be pushed into the Northern Rockies. A zone of stronger mid-level winds will stretch from the Great Basin into the Northern Rockies. Convection is likely over the terrain. ...South Dakota into the Upper Midwest... Convective development during the afternoon will be possible from the Black Hills and eastward where the surface low will intersect the cold front. Given continued warm temperatures aloft and uncertain mid-level forcing, it is not clear where the favored corridor for development will be. The stronger surface low and modest westerlies aloft will promote 40-50 kts of effective shear near the boundary. Once again, strong to extreme buoyancy is possible. Given the temperature-dewpoint spreads at the surface and the boundary-parallel shear, upscale growth would likely be quick. An MCS could then develop and progress along the boundary. By the evening, the cold front should begin to move south and a modest low-level jet will increase, directed into the boundary. Greater coverage of storms would then be possible where MLCIN remains weak. This is another scenario where higher wind probabilities may eventually be needed as uncertainty decreases. ...Montana... Though moisture will be somewhat modest (perhaps dewpoints in the 50s F), it should be sufficient at this elevation for storm development over the terrain. Low-level easterlies and modest westerlies aloft will similarly bring 40-50 kts of effective shear. Lack of greater moisture will likely limit how intense storms will be, but a cluster or two could produce severe wind gusts and large hail. ..Wendt.. 07/26/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL/EASTERN MONTANA...PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from the northern Rockies into Mid-Missouri and Mid-Mississippi Valleys. ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging will persist across much of the central and southern CONUS on Monday. As this ridge amplifies into the Northwest, stronger mid-level winds will develop in the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. A surface low will modestly deepen and become more well-defined in the central Plains. The intensification of the upper trough will help to push a modest surface cold front southward into Tuesday morning. A pseudo warm front will be attendant to the low and extend southeastward through southern Minnesota into northern Illinois. A very moist airmass will be in place south of this boundary. Farther west, modest low-level moisture will be pushed into the Northern Rockies. A zone of stronger mid-level winds will stretch from the Great Basin into the Northern Rockies. Convection is likely over the terrain. ...South Dakota into the Upper Midwest... Convective development during the afternoon will be possible from the Black Hills and eastward where the surface low will intersect the cold front. Given continued warm temperatures aloft and uncertain mid-level forcing, it is not clear where the favored corridor for development will be. The stronger surface low and modest westerlies aloft will promote 40-50 kts of effective shear near the boundary. Once again, strong to extreme buoyancy is possible. Given the temperature-dewpoint spreads at the surface and the boundary-parallel shear, upscale growth would likely be quick. An MCS could then develop and progress along the boundary. By the evening, the cold front should begin to move south and a modest low-level jet will increase, directed into the boundary. Greater coverage of storms would then be possible where MLCIN remains weak. This is another scenario where higher wind probabilities may eventually be needed as uncertainty decreases. ...Montana... Though moisture will be somewhat modest (perhaps dewpoints in the 50s F), it should be sufficient at this elevation for storm development over the terrain. Low-level easterlies and modest westerlies aloft will similarly bring 40-50 kts of effective shear. Lack of greater moisture will likely limit how intense storms will be, but a cluster or two could produce severe wind gusts and large hail. ..Wendt.. 07/26/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL/EASTERN MONTANA...PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from the northern Rockies into Mid-Missouri and Mid-Mississippi Valleys. ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging will persist across much of the central and southern CONUS on Monday. As this ridge amplifies into the Northwest, stronger mid-level winds will develop in the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. A surface low will modestly deepen and become more well-defined in the central Plains. The intensification of the upper trough will help to push a modest surface cold front southward into Tuesday morning. A pseudo warm front will be attendant to the low and extend southeastward through southern Minnesota into northern Illinois. A very moist airmass will be in place south of this boundary. Farther west, modest low-level moisture will be pushed into the Northern Rockies. A zone of stronger mid-level winds will stretch from the Great Basin into the Northern Rockies. Convection is likely over the terrain. ...South Dakota into the Upper Midwest... Convective development during the afternoon will be possible from the Black Hills and eastward where the surface low will intersect the cold front. Given continued warm temperatures aloft and uncertain mid-level forcing, it is not clear where the favored corridor for development will be. The stronger surface low and modest westerlies aloft will promote 40-50 kts of effective shear near the boundary. Once again, strong to extreme buoyancy is possible. Given the temperature-dewpoint spreads at the surface and the boundary-parallel shear, upscale growth would likely be quick. An MCS could then develop and progress along the boundary. By the evening, the cold front should begin to move south and a modest low-level jet will increase, directed into the boundary. Greater coverage of storms would then be possible where MLCIN remains weak. This is another scenario where higher wind probabilities may eventually be needed as uncertainty decreases. ...Montana... Though moisture will be somewhat modest (perhaps dewpoints in the 50s F), it should be sufficient at this elevation for storm development over the terrain. Low-level easterlies and modest westerlies aloft will similarly bring 40-50 kts of effective shear. Lack of greater moisture will likely limit how intense storms will be, but a cluster or two could produce severe wind gusts and large hail. ..Wendt.. 07/26/2025 Read more

MD 1789 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR EASTERN ND AND FAR NORTHWEST MN
Mesoscale Discussion 1789 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Areas affected...eastern ND and far northwest MN Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 260649Z - 260815Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...A swath of strong to severe gusts may occur across a portion of eastern North Dakota into far northwest Minnesota before dawn. With the threat area likely to be confined, a watch is not currently planned. But it could be considered if greater intensification/organization becomes evident. DISCUSSION...A small cluster from Eddy to Stutsman Counties in east-central ND may be maintained to the east-northeast towards a portion of the Red River Valley before dawn. This cluster has evolved into a more north/south-orientation with recent convective development along its southern flank. This is nearly perpendicular to the deep-layer shear vector and enhanced 2-7 km AGL westerlies sampled in recent BIS VWP data. NDAWN observations confirm a 10-13 F temperature gradient within the small cold pool and unperturbed warm sector ahead of the outflow. This setup may yield a swath of strong to severe gusts in a focused corridor over the next 2-3 hours. ..Grams/Hart.. 07/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS... LAT...LON 48349676 47999645 47569630 47219653 47059736 46979885 47269910 47809905 48139794 48349676 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...Synopsis... Upper troughing will persist along the West Coast as the upper ridge continues to build over the central and eastern U.S. tomorrow (Sunday). Mid-level moisture along the upper trough will overspread a dry boundary layer, characterized by inverted-v profiles (based on forecast soundings). As such, a mix of wet and dry high-based thunderstorms is anticipated during the afternoon and evening hours across portions of the Pacific Northwest toward the northern Rockies. Given dry fuels over the region and associated potential for lightning induced ignitions, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been added. ..Squitieri.. 07/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...Synopsis... Upper troughing will persist along the West Coast as the upper ridge continues to build over the central and eastern U.S. tomorrow (Sunday). Mid-level moisture along the upper trough will overspread a dry boundary layer, characterized by inverted-v profiles (based on forecast soundings). As such, a mix of wet and dry high-based thunderstorms is anticipated during the afternoon and evening hours across portions of the Pacific Northwest toward the northern Rockies. Given dry fuels over the region and associated potential for lightning induced ignitions, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been added. ..Squitieri.. 07/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...Synopsis... Upper troughing will persist along the West Coast as the upper ridge continues to build over the central and eastern U.S. tomorrow (Sunday). Mid-level moisture along the upper trough will overspread a dry boundary layer, characterized by inverted-v profiles (based on forecast soundings). As such, a mix of wet and dry high-based thunderstorms is anticipated during the afternoon and evening hours across portions of the Pacific Northwest toward the northern Rockies. Given dry fuels over the region and associated potential for lightning induced ignitions, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been added. ..Squitieri.. 07/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...Synopsis... Upper troughing will persist along the West Coast as the upper ridge continues to build over the central and eastern U.S. tomorrow (Sunday). Mid-level moisture along the upper trough will overspread a dry boundary layer, characterized by inverted-v profiles (based on forecast soundings). As such, a mix of wet and dry high-based thunderstorms is anticipated during the afternoon and evening hours across portions of the Pacific Northwest toward the northern Rockies. Given dry fuels over the region and associated potential for lightning induced ignitions, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been added. ..Squitieri.. 07/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...Synopsis... Upper troughing will persist along the West Coast as the upper ridge continues to build over the central and eastern U.S. tomorrow (Sunday). Mid-level moisture along the upper trough will overspread a dry boundary layer, characterized by inverted-v profiles (based on forecast soundings). As such, a mix of wet and dry high-based thunderstorms is anticipated during the afternoon and evening hours across portions of the Pacific Northwest toward the northern Rockies. Given dry fuels over the region and associated potential for lightning induced ignitions, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been added. ..Squitieri.. 07/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...Synopsis... Upper troughing will persist along the West Coast as the upper ridge continues to build over the central and eastern U.S. tomorrow (Sunday). Mid-level moisture along the upper trough will overspread a dry boundary layer, characterized by inverted-v profiles (based on forecast soundings). As such, a mix of wet and dry high-based thunderstorms is anticipated during the afternoon and evening hours across portions of the Pacific Northwest toward the northern Rockies. Given dry fuels over the region and associated potential for lightning induced ignitions, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been added. ..Squitieri.. 07/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...Synopsis... A broad upper trough will overspread much of the western U.S. while upper ridging persists east of the Rockies today. Multiple embedded mid-level impulses will traverse the northern Great Basin into the northern Rockies during the afternoon, encouraging dry and breezy conditions across parts of the Great Basin into the Four Corners region, as well as thunderstorm development into the Pacific Northwest. By afternoon peak heating, southwesterly sustained surface winds will reach 15-25 mph as RH dips to 10-20 percent across the eastern Great Basin/Four Corners. Elevated highlights have been maintained given the presence of dry fuels. Farther to the northwest, from Northeast California to the Idaho/Montana border, adequate mid-level moisture and deep-layer ascent will support isolated to scattered thunderstorm development atop a dry boundary layer. High-based thunderstorms will produce a mix of wet and dry strikes atop receptive fuels, warranting the continuation of isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. ..Squitieri.. 07/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...Synopsis... A broad upper trough will overspread much of the western U.S. while upper ridging persists east of the Rockies today. Multiple embedded mid-level impulses will traverse the northern Great Basin into the northern Rockies during the afternoon, encouraging dry and breezy conditions across parts of the Great Basin into the Four Corners region, as well as thunderstorm development into the Pacific Northwest. By afternoon peak heating, southwesterly sustained surface winds will reach 15-25 mph as RH dips to 10-20 percent across the eastern Great Basin/Four Corners. Elevated highlights have been maintained given the presence of dry fuels. Farther to the northwest, from Northeast California to the Idaho/Montana border, adequate mid-level moisture and deep-layer ascent will support isolated to scattered thunderstorm development atop a dry boundary layer. High-based thunderstorms will produce a mix of wet and dry strikes atop receptive fuels, warranting the continuation of isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. ..Squitieri.. 07/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...Synopsis... A broad upper trough will overspread much of the western U.S. while upper ridging persists east of the Rockies today. Multiple embedded mid-level impulses will traverse the northern Great Basin into the northern Rockies during the afternoon, encouraging dry and breezy conditions across parts of the Great Basin into the Four Corners region, as well as thunderstorm development into the Pacific Northwest. By afternoon peak heating, southwesterly sustained surface winds will reach 15-25 mph as RH dips to 10-20 percent across the eastern Great Basin/Four Corners. Elevated highlights have been maintained given the presence of dry fuels. Farther to the northwest, from Northeast California to the Idaho/Montana border, adequate mid-level moisture and deep-layer ascent will support isolated to scattered thunderstorm development atop a dry boundary layer. High-based thunderstorms will produce a mix of wet and dry strikes atop receptive fuels, warranting the continuation of isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. ..Squitieri.. 07/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...Synopsis... A broad upper trough will overspread much of the western U.S. while upper ridging persists east of the Rockies today. Multiple embedded mid-level impulses will traverse the northern Great Basin into the northern Rockies during the afternoon, encouraging dry and breezy conditions across parts of the Great Basin into the Four Corners region, as well as thunderstorm development into the Pacific Northwest. By afternoon peak heating, southwesterly sustained surface winds will reach 15-25 mph as RH dips to 10-20 percent across the eastern Great Basin/Four Corners. Elevated highlights have been maintained given the presence of dry fuels. Farther to the northwest, from Northeast California to the Idaho/Montana border, adequate mid-level moisture and deep-layer ascent will support isolated to scattered thunderstorm development atop a dry boundary layer. High-based thunderstorms will produce a mix of wet and dry strikes atop receptive fuels, warranting the continuation of isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. ..Squitieri.. 07/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...Synopsis... A broad upper trough will overspread much of the western U.S. while upper ridging persists east of the Rockies today. Multiple embedded mid-level impulses will traverse the northern Great Basin into the northern Rockies during the afternoon, encouraging dry and breezy conditions across parts of the Great Basin into the Four Corners region, as well as thunderstorm development into the Pacific Northwest. By afternoon peak heating, southwesterly sustained surface winds will reach 15-25 mph as RH dips to 10-20 percent across the eastern Great Basin/Four Corners. Elevated highlights have been maintained given the presence of dry fuels. Farther to the northwest, from Northeast California to the Idaho/Montana border, adequate mid-level moisture and deep-layer ascent will support isolated to scattered thunderstorm development atop a dry boundary layer. High-based thunderstorms will produce a mix of wet and dry strikes atop receptive fuels, warranting the continuation of isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. ..Squitieri.. 07/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...Synopsis... A broad upper trough will overspread much of the western U.S. while upper ridging persists east of the Rockies today. Multiple embedded mid-level impulses will traverse the northern Great Basin into the northern Rockies during the afternoon, encouraging dry and breezy conditions across parts of the Great Basin into the Four Corners region, as well as thunderstorm development into the Pacific Northwest. By afternoon peak heating, southwesterly sustained surface winds will reach 15-25 mph as RH dips to 10-20 percent across the eastern Great Basin/Four Corners. Elevated highlights have been maintained given the presence of dry fuels. Farther to the northwest, from Northeast California to the Idaho/Montana border, adequate mid-level moisture and deep-layer ascent will support isolated to scattered thunderstorm development atop a dry boundary layer. High-based thunderstorms will produce a mix of wet and dry strikes atop receptive fuels, warranting the continuation of isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. ..Squitieri.. 07/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from the eastern Dakotas into the Upper Mississippi Valley as well as across portions of the Mid-Atlantic and New England region. ...Dakotas into Upper Midwest... Forecast uncertainty remains high across these areas. Convection within the Dakotas late Saturday is generally expected to progress into portions of early Sunday morning. The timing and intensify of this early convection is not clear, but will be one of key factors for what occurs in the afternoon. Current guidance would suggest this activity will most likely move through northern parts of Minnesota. Depending on the timing, enough destabilization could occur ahead of it and lead to an increased threat for severe winds into Arrowhead. To the west/south of this activity, a weak surface front/surface trough will likely intersect with outflow from morning activity. This is more likely to be positioned from eastern parts of the Dakotas into central Minnesota. Strong to extreme instability is forecast to develop south of the outflow (3000-5000 J/kg MLCAPE). The broader region will have 40-50 kts of effective shear. Convergence at the surface will be weak and temperatures aloft will be warm enough that capping will be a concern. Any lift from a mid-level perturbation has been rather variable in terms of strength and timing within guidance. While the environment will certainly be favorable for more than just a marginal threat of severe gusts, the above factors greatly limit confidence in highlighting the corridor of greatest risk. ...Mid-Atlantic/Southern New England... A small-scale shortwave trough is expected to move through these regions in the morning. Cloud cover and precipitation appears probable and will have impacts on where the greatest surface heating and destabilization can occur by the afternoon. Portions of southern New England appear most likely to struggle to destabilize, though shear would be sufficient for strong to marginally severe storms. In the Mid-Atlantic, surface heating is more likely and storms will be able to develop within the Blue Ridge and move southeastward. Some clustering may occur given around 20 kts of effective shear. Temperatures in the 90s F and MLCAPE around 3000 J/kg will support a threat for damaging winds. Higher wind probabilities are possible if confidence increases in where clustering will occur. ..Wendt.. 07/26/2025 Read more