Aggregator

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0447 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 031200Z Sub-tropical ridging over the central and eastern US is forecast to intensify late this weekend and through much of next week. At the same time, broad troughing will develop over the West, allowing for increased thunderstorm chances across the Northwest. Fire-weather potential should gradually increase through the extended forecast period. ...Northwest... Broad Pacific troughing should begin to develop across the West Coast early next week as the upper ridge intensifies to the east. Flow aloft will gradually turn more meridional as several weak disturbances move northeastward across the West. An increase in mid-level moisture (PWATS 0.7-1 inch) is likely with the broad troughing. This should support a general increase in thunderstorm chances over much of the region through next week. Current guidance shows isolated thunderstorms beginning as by late D3/Monday into early D4/Tuesday across northern CA and southern OR. These initial storms will likely be dry given steep lapse rates and PWATS generally below one inch. Confidence in greater storm coverage and lightning potential increases into D5/Wednesday as a more pronounced perturbation is forecast to move across the northern Great Basin farther into the Northwest. However, a slow increase in low to mid-level moisture each day and continued rainfall should being to limit the opportunity for dry lightning strikes, creating uncertainty on IsoDryT coverage. Some lightning threat is likely to persist through D6/Thursday, though details remain too limited to introduce probabilities. ...Great Basin... As the upper ridge builds, flow aloft will generally weaken through the next several days. The exception to this may be ahead of the stronger perturbation midweek next week. While not overly pronounced, some guidance shows enhanced flow aloft over spreading drier parts of the eastern Great basin D5/Wednesday. This could support some dry and breezy conditions favorable for elevated to locally critical fire-weather concerns through the end of the week. ..Lyons.. 07/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0447 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 031200Z Sub-tropical ridging over the central and eastern US is forecast to intensify late this weekend and through much of next week. At the same time, broad troughing will develop over the West, allowing for increased thunderstorm chances across the Northwest. Fire-weather potential should gradually increase through the extended forecast period. ...Northwest... Broad Pacific troughing should begin to develop across the West Coast early next week as the upper ridge intensifies to the east. Flow aloft will gradually turn more meridional as several weak disturbances move northeastward across the West. An increase in mid-level moisture (PWATS 0.7-1 inch) is likely with the broad troughing. This should support a general increase in thunderstorm chances over much of the region through next week. Current guidance shows isolated thunderstorms beginning as by late D3/Monday into early D4/Tuesday across northern CA and southern OR. These initial storms will likely be dry given steep lapse rates and PWATS generally below one inch. Confidence in greater storm coverage and lightning potential increases into D5/Wednesday as a more pronounced perturbation is forecast to move across the northern Great Basin farther into the Northwest. However, a slow increase in low to mid-level moisture each day and continued rainfall should being to limit the opportunity for dry lightning strikes, creating uncertainty on IsoDryT coverage. Some lightning threat is likely to persist through D6/Thursday, though details remain too limited to introduce probabilities. ...Great Basin... As the upper ridge builds, flow aloft will generally weaken through the next several days. The exception to this may be ahead of the stronger perturbation midweek next week. While not overly pronounced, some guidance shows enhanced flow aloft over spreading drier parts of the eastern Great basin D5/Wednesday. This could support some dry and breezy conditions favorable for elevated to locally critical fire-weather concerns through the end of the week. ..Lyons.. 07/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0447 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 031200Z Sub-tropical ridging over the central and eastern US is forecast to intensify late this weekend and through much of next week. At the same time, broad troughing will develop over the West, allowing for increased thunderstorm chances across the Northwest. Fire-weather potential should gradually increase through the extended forecast period. ...Northwest... Broad Pacific troughing should begin to develop across the West Coast early next week as the upper ridge intensifies to the east. Flow aloft will gradually turn more meridional as several weak disturbances move northeastward across the West. An increase in mid-level moisture (PWATS 0.7-1 inch) is likely with the broad troughing. This should support a general increase in thunderstorm chances over much of the region through next week. Current guidance shows isolated thunderstorms beginning as by late D3/Monday into early D4/Tuesday across northern CA and southern OR. These initial storms will likely be dry given steep lapse rates and PWATS generally below one inch. Confidence in greater storm coverage and lightning potential increases into D5/Wednesday as a more pronounced perturbation is forecast to move across the northern Great Basin farther into the Northwest. However, a slow increase in low to mid-level moisture each day and continued rainfall should being to limit the opportunity for dry lightning strikes, creating uncertainty on IsoDryT coverage. Some lightning threat is likely to persist through D6/Thursday, though details remain too limited to introduce probabilities. ...Great Basin... As the upper ridge builds, flow aloft will generally weaken through the next several days. The exception to this may be ahead of the stronger perturbation midweek next week. While not overly pronounced, some guidance shows enhanced flow aloft over spreading drier parts of the eastern Great basin D5/Wednesday. This could support some dry and breezy conditions favorable for elevated to locally critical fire-weather concerns through the end of the week. ..Lyons.. 07/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0447 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 031200Z Sub-tropical ridging over the central and eastern US is forecast to intensify late this weekend and through much of next week. At the same time, broad troughing will develop over the West, allowing for increased thunderstorm chances across the Northwest. Fire-weather potential should gradually increase through the extended forecast period. ...Northwest... Broad Pacific troughing should begin to develop across the West Coast early next week as the upper ridge intensifies to the east. Flow aloft will gradually turn more meridional as several weak disturbances move northeastward across the West. An increase in mid-level moisture (PWATS 0.7-1 inch) is likely with the broad troughing. This should support a general increase in thunderstorm chances over much of the region through next week. Current guidance shows isolated thunderstorms beginning as by late D3/Monday into early D4/Tuesday across northern CA and southern OR. These initial storms will likely be dry given steep lapse rates and PWATS generally below one inch. Confidence in greater storm coverage and lightning potential increases into D5/Wednesday as a more pronounced perturbation is forecast to move across the northern Great Basin farther into the Northwest. However, a slow increase in low to mid-level moisture each day and continued rainfall should being to limit the opportunity for dry lightning strikes, creating uncertainty on IsoDryT coverage. Some lightning threat is likely to persist through D6/Thursday, though details remain too limited to introduce probabilities. ...Great Basin... As the upper ridge builds, flow aloft will generally weaken through the next several days. The exception to this may be ahead of the stronger perturbation midweek next week. While not overly pronounced, some guidance shows enhanced flow aloft over spreading drier parts of the eastern Great basin D5/Wednesday. This could support some dry and breezy conditions favorable for elevated to locally critical fire-weather concerns through the end of the week. ..Lyons.. 07/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0447 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 031200Z Sub-tropical ridging over the central and eastern US is forecast to intensify late this weekend and through much of next week. At the same time, broad troughing will develop over the West, allowing for increased thunderstorm chances across the Northwest. Fire-weather potential should gradually increase through the extended forecast period. ...Northwest... Broad Pacific troughing should begin to develop across the West Coast early next week as the upper ridge intensifies to the east. Flow aloft will gradually turn more meridional as several weak disturbances move northeastward across the West. An increase in mid-level moisture (PWATS 0.7-1 inch) is likely with the broad troughing. This should support a general increase in thunderstorm chances over much of the region through next week. Current guidance shows isolated thunderstorms beginning as by late D3/Monday into early D4/Tuesday across northern CA and southern OR. These initial storms will likely be dry given steep lapse rates and PWATS generally below one inch. Confidence in greater storm coverage and lightning potential increases into D5/Wednesday as a more pronounced perturbation is forecast to move across the northern Great Basin farther into the Northwest. However, a slow increase in low to mid-level moisture each day and continued rainfall should being to limit the opportunity for dry lightning strikes, creating uncertainty on IsoDryT coverage. Some lightning threat is likely to persist through D6/Thursday, though details remain too limited to introduce probabilities. ...Great Basin... As the upper ridge builds, flow aloft will generally weaken through the next several days. The exception to this may be ahead of the stronger perturbation midweek next week. While not overly pronounced, some guidance shows enhanced flow aloft over spreading drier parts of the eastern Great basin D5/Wednesday. This could support some dry and breezy conditions favorable for elevated to locally critical fire-weather concerns through the end of the week. ..Lyons.. 07/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0447 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 031200Z Sub-tropical ridging over the central and eastern US is forecast to intensify late this weekend and through much of next week. At the same time, broad troughing will develop over the West, allowing for increased thunderstorm chances across the Northwest. Fire-weather potential should gradually increase through the extended forecast period. ...Northwest... Broad Pacific troughing should begin to develop across the West Coast early next week as the upper ridge intensifies to the east. Flow aloft will gradually turn more meridional as several weak disturbances move northeastward across the West. An increase in mid-level moisture (PWATS 0.7-1 inch) is likely with the broad troughing. This should support a general increase in thunderstorm chances over much of the region through next week. Current guidance shows isolated thunderstorms beginning as by late D3/Monday into early D4/Tuesday across northern CA and southern OR. These initial storms will likely be dry given steep lapse rates and PWATS generally below one inch. Confidence in greater storm coverage and lightning potential increases into D5/Wednesday as a more pronounced perturbation is forecast to move across the northern Great Basin farther into the Northwest. However, a slow increase in low to mid-level moisture each day and continued rainfall should being to limit the opportunity for dry lightning strikes, creating uncertainty on IsoDryT coverage. Some lightning threat is likely to persist through D6/Thursday, though details remain too limited to introduce probabilities. ...Great Basin... As the upper ridge builds, flow aloft will generally weaken through the next several days. The exception to this may be ahead of the stronger perturbation midweek next week. While not overly pronounced, some guidance shows enhanced flow aloft over spreading drier parts of the eastern Great basin D5/Wednesday. This could support some dry and breezy conditions favorable for elevated to locally critical fire-weather concerns through the end of the week. ..Lyons.. 07/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0447 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 031200Z Sub-tropical ridging over the central and eastern US is forecast to intensify late this weekend and through much of next week. At the same time, broad troughing will develop over the West, allowing for increased thunderstorm chances across the Northwest. Fire-weather potential should gradually increase through the extended forecast period. ...Northwest... Broad Pacific troughing should begin to develop across the West Coast early next week as the upper ridge intensifies to the east. Flow aloft will gradually turn more meridional as several weak disturbances move northeastward across the West. An increase in mid-level moisture (PWATS 0.7-1 inch) is likely with the broad troughing. This should support a general increase in thunderstorm chances over much of the region through next week. Current guidance shows isolated thunderstorms beginning as by late D3/Monday into early D4/Tuesday across northern CA and southern OR. These initial storms will likely be dry given steep lapse rates and PWATS generally below one inch. Confidence in greater storm coverage and lightning potential increases into D5/Wednesday as a more pronounced perturbation is forecast to move across the northern Great Basin farther into the Northwest. However, a slow increase in low to mid-level moisture each day and continued rainfall should being to limit the opportunity for dry lightning strikes, creating uncertainty on IsoDryT coverage. Some lightning threat is likely to persist through D6/Thursday, though details remain too limited to introduce probabilities. ...Great Basin... As the upper ridge builds, flow aloft will generally weaken through the next several days. The exception to this may be ahead of the stronger perturbation midweek next week. While not overly pronounced, some guidance shows enhanced flow aloft over spreading drier parts of the eastern Great basin D5/Wednesday. This could support some dry and breezy conditions favorable for elevated to locally critical fire-weather concerns through the end of the week. ..Lyons.. 07/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0447 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 031200Z Sub-tropical ridging over the central and eastern US is forecast to intensify late this weekend and through much of next week. At the same time, broad troughing will develop over the West, allowing for increased thunderstorm chances across the Northwest. Fire-weather potential should gradually increase through the extended forecast period. ...Northwest... Broad Pacific troughing should begin to develop across the West Coast early next week as the upper ridge intensifies to the east. Flow aloft will gradually turn more meridional as several weak disturbances move northeastward across the West. An increase in mid-level moisture (PWATS 0.7-1 inch) is likely with the broad troughing. This should support a general increase in thunderstorm chances over much of the region through next week. Current guidance shows isolated thunderstorms beginning as by late D3/Monday into early D4/Tuesday across northern CA and southern OR. These initial storms will likely be dry given steep lapse rates and PWATS generally below one inch. Confidence in greater storm coverage and lightning potential increases into D5/Wednesday as a more pronounced perturbation is forecast to move across the northern Great Basin farther into the Northwest. However, a slow increase in low to mid-level moisture each day and continued rainfall should being to limit the opportunity for dry lightning strikes, creating uncertainty on IsoDryT coverage. Some lightning threat is likely to persist through D6/Thursday, though details remain too limited to introduce probabilities. ...Great Basin... As the upper ridge builds, flow aloft will generally weaken through the next several days. The exception to this may be ahead of the stronger perturbation midweek next week. While not overly pronounced, some guidance shows enhanced flow aloft over spreading drier parts of the eastern Great basin D5/Wednesday. This could support some dry and breezy conditions favorable for elevated to locally critical fire-weather concerns through the end of the week. ..Lyons.. 07/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0447 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 031200Z Sub-tropical ridging over the central and eastern US is forecast to intensify late this weekend and through much of next week. At the same time, broad troughing will develop over the West, allowing for increased thunderstorm chances across the Northwest. Fire-weather potential should gradually increase through the extended forecast period. ...Northwest... Broad Pacific troughing should begin to develop across the West Coast early next week as the upper ridge intensifies to the east. Flow aloft will gradually turn more meridional as several weak disturbances move northeastward across the West. An increase in mid-level moisture (PWATS 0.7-1 inch) is likely with the broad troughing. This should support a general increase in thunderstorm chances over much of the region through next week. Current guidance shows isolated thunderstorms beginning as by late D3/Monday into early D4/Tuesday across northern CA and southern OR. These initial storms will likely be dry given steep lapse rates and PWATS generally below one inch. Confidence in greater storm coverage and lightning potential increases into D5/Wednesday as a more pronounced perturbation is forecast to move across the northern Great Basin farther into the Northwest. However, a slow increase in low to mid-level moisture each day and continued rainfall should being to limit the opportunity for dry lightning strikes, creating uncertainty on IsoDryT coverage. Some lightning threat is likely to persist through D6/Thursday, though details remain too limited to introduce probabilities. ...Great Basin... As the upper ridge builds, flow aloft will generally weaken through the next several days. The exception to this may be ahead of the stronger perturbation midweek next week. While not overly pronounced, some guidance shows enhanced flow aloft over spreading drier parts of the eastern Great basin D5/Wednesday. This could support some dry and breezy conditions favorable for elevated to locally critical fire-weather concerns through the end of the week. ..Lyons.. 07/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0447 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 031200Z Sub-tropical ridging over the central and eastern US is forecast to intensify late this weekend and through much of next week. At the same time, broad troughing will develop over the West, allowing for increased thunderstorm chances across the Northwest. Fire-weather potential should gradually increase through the extended forecast period. ...Northwest... Broad Pacific troughing should begin to develop across the West Coast early next week as the upper ridge intensifies to the east. Flow aloft will gradually turn more meridional as several weak disturbances move northeastward across the West. An increase in mid-level moisture (PWATS 0.7-1 inch) is likely with the broad troughing. This should support a general increase in thunderstorm chances over much of the region through next week. Current guidance shows isolated thunderstorms beginning as by late D3/Monday into early D4/Tuesday across northern CA and southern OR. These initial storms will likely be dry given steep lapse rates and PWATS generally below one inch. Confidence in greater storm coverage and lightning potential increases into D5/Wednesday as a more pronounced perturbation is forecast to move across the northern Great Basin farther into the Northwest. However, a slow increase in low to mid-level moisture each day and continued rainfall should being to limit the opportunity for dry lightning strikes, creating uncertainty on IsoDryT coverage. Some lightning threat is likely to persist through D6/Thursday, though details remain too limited to introduce probabilities. ...Great Basin... As the upper ridge builds, flow aloft will generally weaken through the next several days. The exception to this may be ahead of the stronger perturbation midweek next week. While not overly pronounced, some guidance shows enhanced flow aloft over spreading drier parts of the eastern Great basin D5/Wednesday. This could support some dry and breezy conditions favorable for elevated to locally critical fire-weather concerns through the end of the week. ..Lyons.. 07/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0447 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 031200Z Sub-tropical ridging over the central and eastern US is forecast to intensify late this weekend and through much of next week. At the same time, broad troughing will develop over the West, allowing for increased thunderstorm chances across the Northwest. Fire-weather potential should gradually increase through the extended forecast period. ...Northwest... Broad Pacific troughing should begin to develop across the West Coast early next week as the upper ridge intensifies to the east. Flow aloft will gradually turn more meridional as several weak disturbances move northeastward across the West. An increase in mid-level moisture (PWATS 0.7-1 inch) is likely with the broad troughing. This should support a general increase in thunderstorm chances over much of the region through next week. Current guidance shows isolated thunderstorms beginning as by late D3/Monday into early D4/Tuesday across northern CA and southern OR. These initial storms will likely be dry given steep lapse rates and PWATS generally below one inch. Confidence in greater storm coverage and lightning potential increases into D5/Wednesday as a more pronounced perturbation is forecast to move across the northern Great Basin farther into the Northwest. However, a slow increase in low to mid-level moisture each day and continued rainfall should being to limit the opportunity for dry lightning strikes, creating uncertainty on IsoDryT coverage. Some lightning threat is likely to persist through D6/Thursday, though details remain too limited to introduce probabilities. ...Great Basin... As the upper ridge builds, flow aloft will generally weaken through the next several days. The exception to this may be ahead of the stronger perturbation midweek next week. While not overly pronounced, some guidance shows enhanced flow aloft over spreading drier parts of the eastern Great basin D5/Wednesday. This could support some dry and breezy conditions favorable for elevated to locally critical fire-weather concerns through the end of the week. ..Lyons.. 07/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 1792 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHEASTERN COLORADO...WESTERN NEBRASKA
Mesoscale Discussion 1792 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Areas affected...Northeastern Colorado...western Nebraska Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 262048Z - 262145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorm activity across the high terrain will move eastward into the evening with potential for damaging winds. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm activity has been steadily developing across the high terrain in Colorado/Wyoming over the last couple of hours. Dew points in these regions are low in the mid 40s, with better moisture located across Nebraska into southern South Dakota. CAM guidance suggests that activity will develop along eastward moving outflow by late afternoon/evening. Downstream, temperatures have warmed into the upper 90s to 100s, with dew point spreads around 40-50 degrees. Though deep layer shear remains weak, large dew point spreads and steep low to mid-level lapse rates may promote some damaging wind potential. In addition, the low level jet is progged to increase through the evening with the deepening of a surface low across South Dakota. While watch issuance is not anticipated, trends in this area will be monitored. ..Thornton/Guyer.. 07/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS... LAT...LON 40260402 41080408 41840406 42470402 43020290 43000219 42740161 41530106 40210064 39650105 39350162 39430319 40260402 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Jul 26 20:16:02 UTC 2025.

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms accompanied by damaging wind gusts are possible this afternoon through tonight in parts of the northern Plains. Isolated strong to severe storms will also be possible from the Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic region, and across the central High Plains and much of Montana. ...20Z Update... The forecast remains on track, and only minor changes were made with this update. The Marginal risk was expanded slightly eastward in northern MN, where an ongoing cluster of storms (preceding a remnant MCV) may pose a risk of strong/severe gusts through the afternoon. For details on the near-term severe risks in the Mid-Atlantic and Midwest, reference MCDs 1790/1791. ..Weinman.. 07/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1146 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025/ ...Northern Plains... Ahead of an upper low over northern California/western Nevada, midday water vapor imagery reflects a lead shortwave trough moving northeastward over northern Utah/eastern Idaho and western Wyoming. In this regime, forcing for ascent and gradual cooling aloft will occur through late today over northern Wyoming and southern/eastern Montana. Northerly/upslope surface winds, combined with strong heating and moderate CAPE values, will promote the development of scattered high-based gusty thunderstorms by late afternoon. This will initially occur across southern Montana and toward the Big Horns/northeast Wyoming. Additional high-based storm development is expected near the surface low and southward-extending surface trough into the central High Plains. Storms that move into the western Dakotas will encounter progressively higher CAPE and likely grow upscale through the evening with a greater risk of organized severe winds, aside from some continued hail potential. As least some late-night severe risk will probably persist across North Dakota/eastern South Dakota into Minnesota. ...Midwest to Mid-Atlantic States/Delmarva... Multiple clusters of have persisted and/or reinvigorated early today in a corridor spanning north-central Illinois/northern Indiana, as well as central Pennsylvania. Moist/humid conditions will exist south of the convectively reinforced boundary and away from areas of persistent cloud debris (such as northward into Lower Michigan), with a reservoir of ample buoyancy contributing to a diurnal intensification of storms as multiple convectively enhanced mid-level disturbances interface with the effective front and nearby warm sector. The strongest storms will be capable of damaging winds, and a somewhat more favorable corridor for severe thunderstorms/wind damage appears to exist across the Mid-Atlantic States including south/southeast parts of Pennsylvania toward the Delmarva/Chesapeake Bay. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms accompanied by damaging wind gusts are possible this afternoon through tonight in parts of the northern Plains. Isolated strong to severe storms will also be possible from the Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic region, and across the central High Plains and much of Montana. ...20Z Update... The forecast remains on track, and only minor changes were made with this update. The Marginal risk was expanded slightly eastward in northern MN, where an ongoing cluster of storms (preceding a remnant MCV) may pose a risk of strong/severe gusts through the afternoon. For details on the near-term severe risks in the Mid-Atlantic and Midwest, reference MCDs 1790/1791. ..Weinman.. 07/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1146 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025/ ...Northern Plains... Ahead of an upper low over northern California/western Nevada, midday water vapor imagery reflects a lead shortwave trough moving northeastward over northern Utah/eastern Idaho and western Wyoming. In this regime, forcing for ascent and gradual cooling aloft will occur through late today over northern Wyoming and southern/eastern Montana. Northerly/upslope surface winds, combined with strong heating and moderate CAPE values, will promote the development of scattered high-based gusty thunderstorms by late afternoon. This will initially occur across southern Montana and toward the Big Horns/northeast Wyoming. Additional high-based storm development is expected near the surface low and southward-extending surface trough into the central High Plains. Storms that move into the western Dakotas will encounter progressively higher CAPE and likely grow upscale through the evening with a greater risk of organized severe winds, aside from some continued hail potential. As least some late-night severe risk will probably persist across North Dakota/eastern South Dakota into Minnesota. ...Midwest to Mid-Atlantic States/Delmarva... Multiple clusters of have persisted and/or reinvigorated early today in a corridor spanning north-central Illinois/northern Indiana, as well as central Pennsylvania. Moist/humid conditions will exist south of the convectively reinforced boundary and away from areas of persistent cloud debris (such as northward into Lower Michigan), with a reservoir of ample buoyancy contributing to a diurnal intensification of storms as multiple convectively enhanced mid-level disturbances interface with the effective front and nearby warm sector. The strongest storms will be capable of damaging winds, and a somewhat more favorable corridor for severe thunderstorms/wind damage appears to exist across the Mid-Atlantic States including south/southeast parts of Pennsylvania toward the Delmarva/Chesapeake Bay. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms accompanied by damaging wind gusts are possible this afternoon through tonight in parts of the northern Plains. Isolated strong to severe storms will also be possible from the Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic region, and across the central High Plains and much of Montana. ...20Z Update... The forecast remains on track, and only minor changes were made with this update. The Marginal risk was expanded slightly eastward in northern MN, where an ongoing cluster of storms (preceding a remnant MCV) may pose a risk of strong/severe gusts through the afternoon. For details on the near-term severe risks in the Mid-Atlantic and Midwest, reference MCDs 1790/1791. ..Weinman.. 07/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1146 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025/ ...Northern Plains... Ahead of an upper low over northern California/western Nevada, midday water vapor imagery reflects a lead shortwave trough moving northeastward over northern Utah/eastern Idaho and western Wyoming. In this regime, forcing for ascent and gradual cooling aloft will occur through late today over northern Wyoming and southern/eastern Montana. Northerly/upslope surface winds, combined with strong heating and moderate CAPE values, will promote the development of scattered high-based gusty thunderstorms by late afternoon. This will initially occur across southern Montana and toward the Big Horns/northeast Wyoming. Additional high-based storm development is expected near the surface low and southward-extending surface trough into the central High Plains. Storms that move into the western Dakotas will encounter progressively higher CAPE and likely grow upscale through the evening with a greater risk of organized severe winds, aside from some continued hail potential. As least some late-night severe risk will probably persist across North Dakota/eastern South Dakota into Minnesota. ...Midwest to Mid-Atlantic States/Delmarva... Multiple clusters of have persisted and/or reinvigorated early today in a corridor spanning north-central Illinois/northern Indiana, as well as central Pennsylvania. Moist/humid conditions will exist south of the convectively reinforced boundary and away from areas of persistent cloud debris (such as northward into Lower Michigan), with a reservoir of ample buoyancy contributing to a diurnal intensification of storms as multiple convectively enhanced mid-level disturbances interface with the effective front and nearby warm sector. The strongest storms will be capable of damaging winds, and a somewhat more favorable corridor for severe thunderstorms/wind damage appears to exist across the Mid-Atlantic States including south/southeast parts of Pennsylvania toward the Delmarva/Chesapeake Bay. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms accompanied by damaging wind gusts are possible this afternoon through tonight in parts of the northern Plains. Isolated strong to severe storms will also be possible from the Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic region, and across the central High Plains and much of Montana. ...20Z Update... The forecast remains on track, and only minor changes were made with this update. The Marginal risk was expanded slightly eastward in northern MN, where an ongoing cluster of storms (preceding a remnant MCV) may pose a risk of strong/severe gusts through the afternoon. For details on the near-term severe risks in the Mid-Atlantic and Midwest, reference MCDs 1790/1791. ..Weinman.. 07/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1146 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025/ ...Northern Plains... Ahead of an upper low over northern California/western Nevada, midday water vapor imagery reflects a lead shortwave trough moving northeastward over northern Utah/eastern Idaho and western Wyoming. In this regime, forcing for ascent and gradual cooling aloft will occur through late today over northern Wyoming and southern/eastern Montana. Northerly/upslope surface winds, combined with strong heating and moderate CAPE values, will promote the development of scattered high-based gusty thunderstorms by late afternoon. This will initially occur across southern Montana and toward the Big Horns/northeast Wyoming. Additional high-based storm development is expected near the surface low and southward-extending surface trough into the central High Plains. Storms that move into the western Dakotas will encounter progressively higher CAPE and likely grow upscale through the evening with a greater risk of organized severe winds, aside from some continued hail potential. As least some late-night severe risk will probably persist across North Dakota/eastern South Dakota into Minnesota. ...Midwest to Mid-Atlantic States/Delmarva... Multiple clusters of have persisted and/or reinvigorated early today in a corridor spanning north-central Illinois/northern Indiana, as well as central Pennsylvania. Moist/humid conditions will exist south of the convectively reinforced boundary and away from areas of persistent cloud debris (such as northward into Lower Michigan), with a reservoir of ample buoyancy contributing to a diurnal intensification of storms as multiple convectively enhanced mid-level disturbances interface with the effective front and nearby warm sector. The strongest storms will be capable of damaging winds, and a somewhat more favorable corridor for severe thunderstorms/wind damage appears to exist across the Mid-Atlantic States including south/southeast parts of Pennsylvania toward the Delmarva/Chesapeake Bay. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms accompanied by damaging wind gusts are possible this afternoon through tonight in parts of the northern Plains. Isolated strong to severe storms will also be possible from the Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic region, and across the central High Plains and much of Montana. ...20Z Update... The forecast remains on track, and only minor changes were made with this update. The Marginal risk was expanded slightly eastward in northern MN, where an ongoing cluster of storms (preceding a remnant MCV) may pose a risk of strong/severe gusts through the afternoon. For details on the near-term severe risks in the Mid-Atlantic and Midwest, reference MCDs 1790/1791. ..Weinman.. 07/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1146 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025/ ...Northern Plains... Ahead of an upper low over northern California/western Nevada, midday water vapor imagery reflects a lead shortwave trough moving northeastward over northern Utah/eastern Idaho and western Wyoming. In this regime, forcing for ascent and gradual cooling aloft will occur through late today over northern Wyoming and southern/eastern Montana. Northerly/upslope surface winds, combined with strong heating and moderate CAPE values, will promote the development of scattered high-based gusty thunderstorms by late afternoon. This will initially occur across southern Montana and toward the Big Horns/northeast Wyoming. Additional high-based storm development is expected near the surface low and southward-extending surface trough into the central High Plains. Storms that move into the western Dakotas will encounter progressively higher CAPE and likely grow upscale through the evening with a greater risk of organized severe winds, aside from some continued hail potential. As least some late-night severe risk will probably persist across North Dakota/eastern South Dakota into Minnesota. ...Midwest to Mid-Atlantic States/Delmarva... Multiple clusters of have persisted and/or reinvigorated early today in a corridor spanning north-central Illinois/northern Indiana, as well as central Pennsylvania. Moist/humid conditions will exist south of the convectively reinforced boundary and away from areas of persistent cloud debris (such as northward into Lower Michigan), with a reservoir of ample buoyancy contributing to a diurnal intensification of storms as multiple convectively enhanced mid-level disturbances interface with the effective front and nearby warm sector. The strongest storms will be capable of damaging winds, and a somewhat more favorable corridor for severe thunderstorms/wind damage appears to exist across the Mid-Atlantic States including south/southeast parts of Pennsylvania toward the Delmarva/Chesapeake Bay. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms accompanied by damaging wind gusts are possible this afternoon through tonight in parts of the northern Plains. Isolated strong to severe storms will also be possible from the Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic region, and across the central High Plains and much of Montana. ...20Z Update... The forecast remains on track, and only minor changes were made with this update. The Marginal risk was expanded slightly eastward in northern MN, where an ongoing cluster of storms (preceding a remnant MCV) may pose a risk of strong/severe gusts through the afternoon. For details on the near-term severe risks in the Mid-Atlantic and Midwest, reference MCDs 1790/1791. ..Weinman.. 07/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1146 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025/ ...Northern Plains... Ahead of an upper low over northern California/western Nevada, midday water vapor imagery reflects a lead shortwave trough moving northeastward over northern Utah/eastern Idaho and western Wyoming. In this regime, forcing for ascent and gradual cooling aloft will occur through late today over northern Wyoming and southern/eastern Montana. Northerly/upslope surface winds, combined with strong heating and moderate CAPE values, will promote the development of scattered high-based gusty thunderstorms by late afternoon. This will initially occur across southern Montana and toward the Big Horns/northeast Wyoming. Additional high-based storm development is expected near the surface low and southward-extending surface trough into the central High Plains. Storms that move into the western Dakotas will encounter progressively higher CAPE and likely grow upscale through the evening with a greater risk of organized severe winds, aside from some continued hail potential. As least some late-night severe risk will probably persist across North Dakota/eastern South Dakota into Minnesota. ...Midwest to Mid-Atlantic States/Delmarva... Multiple clusters of have persisted and/or reinvigorated early today in a corridor spanning north-central Illinois/northern Indiana, as well as central Pennsylvania. Moist/humid conditions will exist south of the convectively reinforced boundary and away from areas of persistent cloud debris (such as northward into Lower Michigan), with a reservoir of ample buoyancy contributing to a diurnal intensification of storms as multiple convectively enhanced mid-level disturbances interface with the effective front and nearby warm sector. The strongest storms will be capable of damaging winds, and a somewhat more favorable corridor for severe thunderstorms/wind damage appears to exist across the Mid-Atlantic States including south/southeast parts of Pennsylvania toward the Delmarva/Chesapeake Bay. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms accompanied by damaging wind gusts are possible this afternoon through tonight in parts of the northern Plains. Isolated strong to severe storms will also be possible from the Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic region, and across the central High Plains and much of Montana. ...20Z Update... The forecast remains on track, and only minor changes were made with this update. The Marginal risk was expanded slightly eastward in northern MN, where an ongoing cluster of storms (preceding a remnant MCV) may pose a risk of strong/severe gusts through the afternoon. For details on the near-term severe risks in the Mid-Atlantic and Midwest, reference MCDs 1790/1791. ..Weinman.. 07/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1146 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025/ ...Northern Plains... Ahead of an upper low over northern California/western Nevada, midday water vapor imagery reflects a lead shortwave trough moving northeastward over northern Utah/eastern Idaho and western Wyoming. In this regime, forcing for ascent and gradual cooling aloft will occur through late today over northern Wyoming and southern/eastern Montana. Northerly/upslope surface winds, combined with strong heating and moderate CAPE values, will promote the development of scattered high-based gusty thunderstorms by late afternoon. This will initially occur across southern Montana and toward the Big Horns/northeast Wyoming. Additional high-based storm development is expected near the surface low and southward-extending surface trough into the central High Plains. Storms that move into the western Dakotas will encounter progressively higher CAPE and likely grow upscale through the evening with a greater risk of organized severe winds, aside from some continued hail potential. As least some late-night severe risk will probably persist across North Dakota/eastern South Dakota into Minnesota. ...Midwest to Mid-Atlantic States/Delmarva... Multiple clusters of have persisted and/or reinvigorated early today in a corridor spanning north-central Illinois/northern Indiana, as well as central Pennsylvania. Moist/humid conditions will exist south of the convectively reinforced boundary and away from areas of persistent cloud debris (such as northward into Lower Michigan), with a reservoir of ample buoyancy contributing to a diurnal intensification of storms as multiple convectively enhanced mid-level disturbances interface with the effective front and nearby warm sector. The strongest storms will be capable of damaging winds, and a somewhat more favorable corridor for severe thunderstorms/wind damage appears to exist across the Mid-Atlantic States including south/southeast parts of Pennsylvania toward the Delmarva/Chesapeake Bay. Read more