Aggregator

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will prevail over the central and eastern U.S. while an upper trough lingers over the Interior West today. Adequate lift ahead of the upper trough amid appreciable mid-level moisture and buoyancy will support isolated to scattered thunderstorm development over the Sierra toward the Northern Rockies by the afternoon. Forecast soundings in this region depict inverted-v profiles, with 0.25-0.75 inch PWATs, promoting a mix of wet and dry high-based thunderstorms. Given dry fuels in the region, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights seem necessary. ..Squitieri.. 07/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST...LOWER GREAT LAKES...NORTHERN ROCKIES...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms accompanied by potentially damaging wind gusts are possible Saturday afternoon/evening in parts of the Upper Midwest/Lower Great Lakes. Isolated to widely scattered severe storms may also occur from the Northern Rockies, central High Plains, and northern Plains. ...Dakotas... A belt of stronger mid-level flow will exist near the Canadian border and should extend into parts of North Dakota. A modest surface trough/low will likely be situated in parts of the western Dakotas with a very moist airmass (mid/upper 60s F dewpoints) to the east of this feature. 3000-4000 J/kg of MLCAPE appear probable along with 35-45 kts of effective shear. Beneath the upper ridge, forcing for ascent will not be strong. Capping may be enough to hinder storm development--a scenario suggested by the ECMWF. However, there does appear to be a weak perturbation emanating from the central Rockies that could promote storm development near the surface trough/low, as suggested by the NAM/GFS. Should this occur, organized supercells would be possible early in the convective cycle. Large hail and severe gusts would be the expected hazards. Large temperature-dewpoint spreads at the surface and weak low-level shear would likely promote outflow dominance and potential for upscale growth. This would mean a transition to a broader threat of severe winds. ...Upper Midwest/Lower Great Lakes... A convectively induced MCV is expected to be moving into northern Illinois/southern Wisconsin early Saturday morning. This activity is generally expected to be sub-severe given limited buoyancy. Ahead of this feature, as well as along the outflow boundary this activity leaves behind, strong heating of a moist airmass will support MLCAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg in parts of central Illinois. Farther east, MLCAPE may be near 2000-2500 J/kg. Shear will generally be weak away from the MCV/surface boundary, but 30-35 kts of effective shear along the boundary appears possible. Marginally organized storms will have some potential to produce damaging downburst winds. The main uncertainties are the track of the MCV and where the outflow will be during the afternoon. The general trend in guidance has been for the more favorable environment to be farther south and probabilities have been adjusted to reflect this. ...Central High Plains... Strong heating near the surface trough and aid from a shortwave trough moving through the Four Corners should allow isolated storm development by late afternoon. A modest increase in shear across the surface trough/terrain will also occur. With large temperature-dewpoint spreads at the surface, isolated severe winds would be possible. A cluster or two could evolve out of this activity, but where this will occur is uncertain. ...Northern Rockies... Stronger mid-level flow will exist across this region. Moisture/buoyancy will be limited, especially with westward extent. However, widely scattered to scattered convection will likely develop within the terrain and move northeastward. How far northeast the strongest activity progresses is not clear given capping in parts of central/eastern Montana. However, strong to marginally severe gusts appear possible with this activity given the deeply mixed boundary layer. ..Wendt.. 07/25/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST...LOWER GREAT LAKES...NORTHERN ROCKIES...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms accompanied by potentially damaging wind gusts are possible Saturday afternoon/evening in parts of the Upper Midwest/Lower Great Lakes. Isolated to widely scattered severe storms may also occur from the Northern Rockies, central High Plains, and northern Plains. ...Dakotas... A belt of stronger mid-level flow will exist near the Canadian border and should extend into parts of North Dakota. A modest surface trough/low will likely be situated in parts of the western Dakotas with a very moist airmass (mid/upper 60s F dewpoints) to the east of this feature. 3000-4000 J/kg of MLCAPE appear probable along with 35-45 kts of effective shear. Beneath the upper ridge, forcing for ascent will not be strong. Capping may be enough to hinder storm development--a scenario suggested by the ECMWF. However, there does appear to be a weak perturbation emanating from the central Rockies that could promote storm development near the surface trough/low, as suggested by the NAM/GFS. Should this occur, organized supercells would be possible early in the convective cycle. Large hail and severe gusts would be the expected hazards. Large temperature-dewpoint spreads at the surface and weak low-level shear would likely promote outflow dominance and potential for upscale growth. This would mean a transition to a broader threat of severe winds. ...Upper Midwest/Lower Great Lakes... A convectively induced MCV is expected to be moving into northern Illinois/southern Wisconsin early Saturday morning. This activity is generally expected to be sub-severe given limited buoyancy. Ahead of this feature, as well as along the outflow boundary this activity leaves behind, strong heating of a moist airmass will support MLCAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg in parts of central Illinois. Farther east, MLCAPE may be near 2000-2500 J/kg. Shear will generally be weak away from the MCV/surface boundary, but 30-35 kts of effective shear along the boundary appears possible. Marginally organized storms will have some potential to produce damaging downburst winds. The main uncertainties are the track of the MCV and where the outflow will be during the afternoon. The general trend in guidance has been for the more favorable environment to be farther south and probabilities have been adjusted to reflect this. ...Central High Plains... Strong heating near the surface trough and aid from a shortwave trough moving through the Four Corners should allow isolated storm development by late afternoon. A modest increase in shear across the surface trough/terrain will also occur. With large temperature-dewpoint spreads at the surface, isolated severe winds would be possible. A cluster or two could evolve out of this activity, but where this will occur is uncertain. ...Northern Rockies... Stronger mid-level flow will exist across this region. Moisture/buoyancy will be limited, especially with westward extent. However, widely scattered to scattered convection will likely develop within the terrain and move northeastward. How far northeast the strongest activity progresses is not clear given capping in parts of central/eastern Montana. However, strong to marginally severe gusts appear possible with this activity given the deeply mixed boundary layer. ..Wendt.. 07/25/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST...LOWER GREAT LAKES...NORTHERN ROCKIES...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms accompanied by potentially damaging wind gusts are possible Saturday afternoon/evening in parts of the Upper Midwest/Lower Great Lakes. Isolated to widely scattered severe storms may also occur from the Northern Rockies, central High Plains, and northern Plains. ...Dakotas... A belt of stronger mid-level flow will exist near the Canadian border and should extend into parts of North Dakota. A modest surface trough/low will likely be situated in parts of the western Dakotas with a very moist airmass (mid/upper 60s F dewpoints) to the east of this feature. 3000-4000 J/kg of MLCAPE appear probable along with 35-45 kts of effective shear. Beneath the upper ridge, forcing for ascent will not be strong. Capping may be enough to hinder storm development--a scenario suggested by the ECMWF. However, there does appear to be a weak perturbation emanating from the central Rockies that could promote storm development near the surface trough/low, as suggested by the NAM/GFS. Should this occur, organized supercells would be possible early in the convective cycle. Large hail and severe gusts would be the expected hazards. Large temperature-dewpoint spreads at the surface and weak low-level shear would likely promote outflow dominance and potential for upscale growth. This would mean a transition to a broader threat of severe winds. ...Upper Midwest/Lower Great Lakes... A convectively induced MCV is expected to be moving into northern Illinois/southern Wisconsin early Saturday morning. This activity is generally expected to be sub-severe given limited buoyancy. Ahead of this feature, as well as along the outflow boundary this activity leaves behind, strong heating of a moist airmass will support MLCAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg in parts of central Illinois. Farther east, MLCAPE may be near 2000-2500 J/kg. Shear will generally be weak away from the MCV/surface boundary, but 30-35 kts of effective shear along the boundary appears possible. Marginally organized storms will have some potential to produce damaging downburst winds. The main uncertainties are the track of the MCV and where the outflow will be during the afternoon. The general trend in guidance has been for the more favorable environment to be farther south and probabilities have been adjusted to reflect this. ...Central High Plains... Strong heating near the surface trough and aid from a shortwave trough moving through the Four Corners should allow isolated storm development by late afternoon. A modest increase in shear across the surface trough/terrain will also occur. With large temperature-dewpoint spreads at the surface, isolated severe winds would be possible. A cluster or two could evolve out of this activity, but where this will occur is uncertain. ...Northern Rockies... Stronger mid-level flow will exist across this region. Moisture/buoyancy will be limited, especially with westward extent. However, widely scattered to scattered convection will likely develop within the terrain and move northeastward. How far northeast the strongest activity progresses is not clear given capping in parts of central/eastern Montana. However, strong to marginally severe gusts appear possible with this activity given the deeply mixed boundary layer. ..Wendt.. 07/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF NORTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will pose a risk of damaging wind gusts across parts of New England and the northern Mid Atlantic later today. Severe storms will also be possible across much of North Dakota. ...Northeast into the northern Mid Atlantic... A vigorous mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move across southern Quebec and northern New England later today. A cold front will move across the Northeast and northern Mid Atlantic through the day and into the evening. Moderate buoyancy is expected to develop along/ahead of the front during the afternoon. Storm coverage is somewhat uncertain due to veered low-level flow and relatively weak frontal convergence, but isolated to widely scattered storm development will be possible along/ahead of the front. Effective shear of 25-35 kt will be favorable for some storm organization, and a few organized clusters and/or marginal supercells may develop, with a primary threat of damaging gusts during the afternoon and evening before convection weakens or moves offshore. ...Northern Great Plains... A midlevel shortwave trough and surface low will move eastward across parts of AB/SK today. A surface trough will extend southward from the low across the northern High Plains vicinity. Relatively rich low-level moisture will stream northward ahead of the surface trough, beneath steepening midlevel lapse rates. Moderate buoyancy may develop as far west as eastern MT this afternoon, with very strong buoyancy (MLCAPE of 2500-4000 J/kg) expected over the Dakotas. Stronger large-scale ascent will be across Canada, resulting in uncertainty regarding storm coverage and evolution during the afternoon and evening. The bulk of 00Z HREF guidance depicts at least isolated development near the surface trough across parts of southeast MT, potentially aided by one or more low-amplitude midlevel vorticity maxima moving through southwesterly flow aloft. Some guidance also initiates storms farther east into central/eastern ND, within a weakly capped but also weakly forced environment. Deep-layer flow will be relatively modest, but sufficient to support effective shear of 25-35 kt. Initially high-based convection across eastern MT may intensify as it moves eastward into ND, with some potential for development of a storm cluster or MCS capable of producing strong to severe gusts. Any diurnal development across central/eastern ND would pose a threat of hail, localized severe gusts, and possibly a tornado, given modestly enlarged low-level hodographs. A Slight Risk has been added where there is sufficient consensus among CAM and global guidance for storm development within a generally favorable environment. ...Central Plains into the Midwest... Multiple MCVs may impact areas from the central Plains into the Midwest later today. The most prominent of these is expected to move northeast across parts of KS, within a very moist and unstable environment. Deep-layer shear may become sufficient for organized clusters or marginal supercell structures, with a threat of localized damaging gusts. Depending on the extent of low-level SRH enhancement (which varies among guidance), a tornado may also be possible. Other MCVs may move from parts of MO/IL into IN/OH through the day and into the evening. Their impact on organized severe potential is uncertain, but if sufficient destabilization can occur ahead of these features, then localized wind damage will be possible. ..Dean/Squitieri.. 07/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF NORTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will pose a risk of damaging wind gusts across parts of New England and the northern Mid Atlantic later today. Severe storms will also be possible across much of North Dakota. ...Northeast into the northern Mid Atlantic... A vigorous mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move across southern Quebec and northern New England later today. A cold front will move across the Northeast and northern Mid Atlantic through the day and into the evening. Moderate buoyancy is expected to develop along/ahead of the front during the afternoon. Storm coverage is somewhat uncertain due to veered low-level flow and relatively weak frontal convergence, but isolated to widely scattered storm development will be possible along/ahead of the front. Effective shear of 25-35 kt will be favorable for some storm organization, and a few organized clusters and/or marginal supercells may develop, with a primary threat of damaging gusts during the afternoon and evening before convection weakens or moves offshore. ...Northern Great Plains... A midlevel shortwave trough and surface low will move eastward across parts of AB/SK today. A surface trough will extend southward from the low across the northern High Plains vicinity. Relatively rich low-level moisture will stream northward ahead of the surface trough, beneath steepening midlevel lapse rates. Moderate buoyancy may develop as far west as eastern MT this afternoon, with very strong buoyancy (MLCAPE of 2500-4000 J/kg) expected over the Dakotas. Stronger large-scale ascent will be across Canada, resulting in uncertainty regarding storm coverage and evolution during the afternoon and evening. The bulk of 00Z HREF guidance depicts at least isolated development near the surface trough across parts of southeast MT, potentially aided by one or more low-amplitude midlevel vorticity maxima moving through southwesterly flow aloft. Some guidance also initiates storms farther east into central/eastern ND, within a weakly capped but also weakly forced environment. Deep-layer flow will be relatively modest, but sufficient to support effective shear of 25-35 kt. Initially high-based convection across eastern MT may intensify as it moves eastward into ND, with some potential for development of a storm cluster or MCS capable of producing strong to severe gusts. Any diurnal development across central/eastern ND would pose a threat of hail, localized severe gusts, and possibly a tornado, given modestly enlarged low-level hodographs. A Slight Risk has been added where there is sufficient consensus among CAM and global guidance for storm development within a generally favorable environment. ...Central Plains into the Midwest... Multiple MCVs may impact areas from the central Plains into the Midwest later today. The most prominent of these is expected to move northeast across parts of KS, within a very moist and unstable environment. Deep-layer shear may become sufficient for organized clusters or marginal supercell structures, with a threat of localized damaging gusts. Depending on the extent of low-level SRH enhancement (which varies among guidance), a tornado may also be possible. Other MCVs may move from parts of MO/IL into IN/OH through the day and into the evening. Their impact on organized severe potential is uncertain, but if sufficient destabilization can occur ahead of these features, then localized wind damage will be possible. ..Dean/Squitieri.. 07/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF NORTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will pose a risk of damaging wind gusts across parts of New England and the northern Mid Atlantic later today. Severe storms will also be possible across much of North Dakota. ...Northeast into the northern Mid Atlantic... A vigorous mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move across southern Quebec and northern New England later today. A cold front will move across the Northeast and northern Mid Atlantic through the day and into the evening. Moderate buoyancy is expected to develop along/ahead of the front during the afternoon. Storm coverage is somewhat uncertain due to veered low-level flow and relatively weak frontal convergence, but isolated to widely scattered storm development will be possible along/ahead of the front. Effective shear of 25-35 kt will be favorable for some storm organization, and a few organized clusters and/or marginal supercells may develop, with a primary threat of damaging gusts during the afternoon and evening before convection weakens or moves offshore. ...Northern Great Plains... A midlevel shortwave trough and surface low will move eastward across parts of AB/SK today. A surface trough will extend southward from the low across the northern High Plains vicinity. Relatively rich low-level moisture will stream northward ahead of the surface trough, beneath steepening midlevel lapse rates. Moderate buoyancy may develop as far west as eastern MT this afternoon, with very strong buoyancy (MLCAPE of 2500-4000 J/kg) expected over the Dakotas. Stronger large-scale ascent will be across Canada, resulting in uncertainty regarding storm coverage and evolution during the afternoon and evening. The bulk of 00Z HREF guidance depicts at least isolated development near the surface trough across parts of southeast MT, potentially aided by one or more low-amplitude midlevel vorticity maxima moving through southwesterly flow aloft. Some guidance also initiates storms farther east into central/eastern ND, within a weakly capped but also weakly forced environment. Deep-layer flow will be relatively modest, but sufficient to support effective shear of 25-35 kt. Initially high-based convection across eastern MT may intensify as it moves eastward into ND, with some potential for development of a storm cluster or MCS capable of producing strong to severe gusts. Any diurnal development across central/eastern ND would pose a threat of hail, localized severe gusts, and possibly a tornado, given modestly enlarged low-level hodographs. A Slight Risk has been added where there is sufficient consensus among CAM and global guidance for storm development within a generally favorable environment. ...Central Plains into the Midwest... Multiple MCVs may impact areas from the central Plains into the Midwest later today. The most prominent of these is expected to move northeast across parts of KS, within a very moist and unstable environment. Deep-layer shear may become sufficient for organized clusters or marginal supercell structures, with a threat of localized damaging gusts. Depending on the extent of low-level SRH enhancement (which varies among guidance), a tornado may also be possible. Other MCVs may move from parts of MO/IL into IN/OH through the day and into the evening. Their impact on organized severe potential is uncertain, but if sufficient destabilization can occur ahead of these features, then localized wind damage will be possible. ..Dean/Squitieri.. 07/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF NORTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will pose a risk of damaging wind gusts across parts of New England and the northern Mid Atlantic later today. Severe storms will also be possible across much of North Dakota. ...Northeast into the northern Mid Atlantic... A vigorous mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move across southern Quebec and northern New England later today. A cold front will move across the Northeast and northern Mid Atlantic through the day and into the evening. Moderate buoyancy is expected to develop along/ahead of the front during the afternoon. Storm coverage is somewhat uncertain due to veered low-level flow and relatively weak frontal convergence, but isolated to widely scattered storm development will be possible along/ahead of the front. Effective shear of 25-35 kt will be favorable for some storm organization, and a few organized clusters and/or marginal supercells may develop, with a primary threat of damaging gusts during the afternoon and evening before convection weakens or moves offshore. ...Northern Great Plains... A midlevel shortwave trough and surface low will move eastward across parts of AB/SK today. A surface trough will extend southward from the low across the northern High Plains vicinity. Relatively rich low-level moisture will stream northward ahead of the surface trough, beneath steepening midlevel lapse rates. Moderate buoyancy may develop as far west as eastern MT this afternoon, with very strong buoyancy (MLCAPE of 2500-4000 J/kg) expected over the Dakotas. Stronger large-scale ascent will be across Canada, resulting in uncertainty regarding storm coverage and evolution during the afternoon and evening. The bulk of 00Z HREF guidance depicts at least isolated development near the surface trough across parts of southeast MT, potentially aided by one or more low-amplitude midlevel vorticity maxima moving through southwesterly flow aloft. Some guidance also initiates storms farther east into central/eastern ND, within a weakly capped but also weakly forced environment. Deep-layer flow will be relatively modest, but sufficient to support effective shear of 25-35 kt. Initially high-based convection across eastern MT may intensify as it moves eastward into ND, with some potential for development of a storm cluster or MCS capable of producing strong to severe gusts. Any diurnal development across central/eastern ND would pose a threat of hail, localized severe gusts, and possibly a tornado, given modestly enlarged low-level hodographs. A Slight Risk has been added where there is sufficient consensus among CAM and global guidance for storm development within a generally favorable environment. ...Central Plains into the Midwest... Multiple MCVs may impact areas from the central Plains into the Midwest later today. The most prominent of these is expected to move northeast across parts of KS, within a very moist and unstable environment. Deep-layer shear may become sufficient for organized clusters or marginal supercell structures, with a threat of localized damaging gusts. Depending on the extent of low-level SRH enhancement (which varies among guidance), a tornado may also be possible. Other MCVs may move from parts of MO/IL into IN/OH through the day and into the evening. Their impact on organized severe potential is uncertain, but if sufficient destabilization can occur ahead of these features, then localized wind damage will be possible. ..Dean/Squitieri.. 07/25/2025 Read more

000
ABNT20 KNHC 250509
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Fri Jul 25 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

North-Central Gulf:
A broad area of low pressure over the north-central Gulf is
currently producing an area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Over the next day or so, slow development of this
system is possible while it moves generally west-northwestward
across the northern Gulf. By this weekend, the system is likely to
move inland over southeastern Texas or western Louisiana, ending its
chances for development. Regardless of tropical cyclone formation,
locally heavy rainfall is possible for portions of the northern
Gulf coast through this weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

358
ABPZ20 KNHC 250504
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Thu Jul 24 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Well Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad
trough of low pressure located well southeast of the Hawaiian
Islands continue. Some gradual development of this system is
possible, and a tropical depression could form late this weekend or
early next week as it moves generally westward at 10 to 15 mph
across the far western portion of the eastern Pacific and into the
Central Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Central East Pacific:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form offshore of the
southwestern coast of Mexico early next week. Thereafter,
environmental conditions appear conducive for some development as
the system moves generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Gibbs

MD 1776 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF EXTREME WESTERN NEW YORK
Mesoscale Discussion 1776 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0831 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025 Areas affected...parts of extreme western New York Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 250131Z - 250330Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Approaching storms may maintain enough intensity to produce a strong, damaging gust or two before dissipating. A WW issuance is not expected. DISCUSSION...A cluster of outflow dominant storms across far southeast Ontario is approaching extreme western New York from the west-northwest at 30-35 kts. These storms, and their outflow boundaries, may cross Lake Erie and far southern Lake Ontario and reach the New York shoreline in the next 60-90 minutes. While convection may weaken over the next few hours given diurnal cooling, a few strong wind gusts may be generated over open waters given less surface friction. A couple of strong wind gusts could be damaging as they reach the shoreline and immediate adjacent land areas. Nonetheless, the severe risk should be sparse at best, so a WW issuance is not anticipated. ..Squitieri/Mosier.. 07/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BUF... LAT...LON 42407864 42097925 42137953 42247966 42317969 42677911 42967902 43187908 43357905 43487851 43407776 43327751 43177743 42837772 42407864 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH Read more

MD 1775 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST MISSOURI INTO WEST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS
Mesoscale Discussion 1775 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0813 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025 Areas affected...portions of northeast Missouri into west-central Illinois Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 250113Z - 250245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...A couple of damaging gusts may occur with a cold-pool-driven MCS over the next few hours. A WW issuance is not expected. DISCUSSION...A cold-pool-driven MCS has recently organized into a quasi-bowing structure oriented roughly normal to the 20-30 kt effective bulk shear vectors. Surface observations suggest 10-20 F surface temperature deficits behind the main line. Given modest forward propagation of the MCS noted into a favorable airmass characterized by 2500+ J/kg MLCAPE, a couple of damaging gusts cannot be ruled out along locally stronger surges of the cold pool/convective leading line. Nonetheless, the severe threat will be isolated at best, so a WW issuance is not expected. ..Squitieri/Mosier.. 07/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX... LAT...LON 40029196 40149090 39838994 39348977 39039008 38939041 38969103 38989145 38989182 39059223 40029196 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025 Valid 250100Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF KS/NORTHWEST OK NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...AND ALSO ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Locally damaging thunderstorm wind gusts remain possible tonight from parts of Missouri into the lower Great Lakes region. Isolated hail and strong to severe gusts are also possible across parts of the central and northern High Plains. ...Parts of MO into the lower Great Lakes... A loosely organized MCS has developed across parts of northeast MO this evening. This system may continue moving east-northeast along a surface boundary tonight, aided by very rich downstream moisture and moderate buoyancy (as observed in the 00Z ILX sounding). While this system has largely remained subsevere thus far, and low/midlevel flow is forecast to remain relatively modest, locally damaging gusts cannot be ruled out as it approaches parts of central/northern IL and northwest IN later tonight. Farther east, convection has generally weakened or moved into Ontario from southern lower MI this evening. Strong storms remain over parts of southeast Ontario, and these storms may approach parts of western NY with isolated strong to locally damaging gusts before subsiding. ...Central/northern High Plains... Widely scattered strong to locally severe storms may continue through at least dusk across parts of the central and northern High Plains, within a moderately unstable environment. Effective shear of 25-35 kt will support potential for hail with the strongest discrete cells, while isolated strong to severe gusts also remain possible, especially if any notable outflow consolidation occurs later this evening. ..Dean.. 07/25/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025 Valid 250100Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF KS/NORTHWEST OK NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...AND ALSO ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Locally damaging thunderstorm wind gusts remain possible tonight from parts of Missouri into the lower Great Lakes region. Isolated hail and strong to severe gusts are also possible across parts of the central and northern High Plains. ...Parts of MO into the lower Great Lakes... A loosely organized MCS has developed across parts of northeast MO this evening. This system may continue moving east-northeast along a surface boundary tonight, aided by very rich downstream moisture and moderate buoyancy (as observed in the 00Z ILX sounding). While this system has largely remained subsevere thus far, and low/midlevel flow is forecast to remain relatively modest, locally damaging gusts cannot be ruled out as it approaches parts of central/northern IL and northwest IN later tonight. Farther east, convection has generally weakened or moved into Ontario from southern lower MI this evening. Strong storms remain over parts of southeast Ontario, and these storms may approach parts of western NY with isolated strong to locally damaging gusts before subsiding. ...Central/northern High Plains... Widely scattered strong to locally severe storms may continue through at least dusk across parts of the central and northern High Plains, within a moderately unstable environment. Effective shear of 25-35 kt will support potential for hail with the strongest discrete cells, while isolated strong to severe gusts also remain possible, especially if any notable outflow consolidation occurs later this evening. ..Dean.. 07/25/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025 Valid 250100Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF KS/NORTHWEST OK NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...AND ALSO ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Locally damaging thunderstorm wind gusts remain possible tonight from parts of Missouri into the lower Great Lakes region. Isolated hail and strong to severe gusts are also possible across parts of the central and northern High Plains. ...Parts of MO into the lower Great Lakes... A loosely organized MCS has developed across parts of northeast MO this evening. This system may continue moving east-northeast along a surface boundary tonight, aided by very rich downstream moisture and moderate buoyancy (as observed in the 00Z ILX sounding). While this system has largely remained subsevere thus far, and low/midlevel flow is forecast to remain relatively modest, locally damaging gusts cannot be ruled out as it approaches parts of central/northern IL and northwest IN later tonight. Farther east, convection has generally weakened or moved into Ontario from southern lower MI this evening. Strong storms remain over parts of southeast Ontario, and these storms may approach parts of western NY with isolated strong to locally damaging gusts before subsiding. ...Central/northern High Plains... Widely scattered strong to locally severe storms may continue through at least dusk across parts of the central and northern High Plains, within a moderately unstable environment. Effective shear of 25-35 kt will support potential for hail with the strongest discrete cells, while isolated strong to severe gusts also remain possible, especially if any notable outflow consolidation occurs later this evening. ..Dean.. 07/25/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025 Valid 250100Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF KS/NORTHWEST OK NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...AND ALSO ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Locally damaging thunderstorm wind gusts remain possible tonight from parts of Missouri into the lower Great Lakes region. Isolated hail and strong to severe gusts are also possible across parts of the central and northern High Plains. ...Parts of MO into the lower Great Lakes... A loosely organized MCS has developed across parts of northeast MO this evening. This system may continue moving east-northeast along a surface boundary tonight, aided by very rich downstream moisture and moderate buoyancy (as observed in the 00Z ILX sounding). While this system has largely remained subsevere thus far, and low/midlevel flow is forecast to remain relatively modest, locally damaging gusts cannot be ruled out as it approaches parts of central/northern IL and northwest IN later tonight. Farther east, convection has generally weakened or moved into Ontario from southern lower MI this evening. Strong storms remain over parts of southeast Ontario, and these storms may approach parts of western NY with isolated strong to locally damaging gusts before subsiding. ...Central/northern High Plains... Widely scattered strong to locally severe storms may continue through at least dusk across parts of the central and northern High Plains, within a moderately unstable environment. Effective shear of 25-35 kt will support potential for hail with the strongest discrete cells, while isolated strong to severe gusts also remain possible, especially if any notable outflow consolidation occurs later this evening. ..Dean.. 07/25/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025 Valid 250100Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF KS/NORTHWEST OK NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...AND ALSO ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Locally damaging thunderstorm wind gusts remain possible tonight from parts of Missouri into the lower Great Lakes region. Isolated hail and strong to severe gusts are also possible across parts of the central and northern High Plains. ...Parts of MO into the lower Great Lakes... A loosely organized MCS has developed across parts of northeast MO this evening. This system may continue moving east-northeast along a surface boundary tonight, aided by very rich downstream moisture and moderate buoyancy (as observed in the 00Z ILX sounding). While this system has largely remained subsevere thus far, and low/midlevel flow is forecast to remain relatively modest, locally damaging gusts cannot be ruled out as it approaches parts of central/northern IL and northwest IN later tonight. Farther east, convection has generally weakened or moved into Ontario from southern lower MI this evening. Strong storms remain over parts of southeast Ontario, and these storms may approach parts of western NY with isolated strong to locally damaging gusts before subsiding. ...Central/northern High Plains... Widely scattered strong to locally severe storms may continue through at least dusk across parts of the central and northern High Plains, within a moderately unstable environment. Effective shear of 25-35 kt will support potential for hail with the strongest discrete cells, while isolated strong to severe gusts also remain possible, especially if any notable outflow consolidation occurs later this evening. ..Dean.. 07/25/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025 Valid 250100Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF KS/NORTHWEST OK NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...AND ALSO ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Locally damaging thunderstorm wind gusts remain possible tonight from parts of Missouri into the lower Great Lakes region. Isolated hail and strong to severe gusts are also possible across parts of the central and northern High Plains. ...Parts of MO into the lower Great Lakes... A loosely organized MCS has developed across parts of northeast MO this evening. This system may continue moving east-northeast along a surface boundary tonight, aided by very rich downstream moisture and moderate buoyancy (as observed in the 00Z ILX sounding). While this system has largely remained subsevere thus far, and low/midlevel flow is forecast to remain relatively modest, locally damaging gusts cannot be ruled out as it approaches parts of central/northern IL and northwest IN later tonight. Farther east, convection has generally weakened or moved into Ontario from southern lower MI this evening. Strong storms remain over parts of southeast Ontario, and these storms may approach parts of western NY with isolated strong to locally damaging gusts before subsiding. ...Central/northern High Plains... Widely scattered strong to locally severe storms may continue through at least dusk across parts of the central and northern High Plains, within a moderately unstable environment. Effective shear of 25-35 kt will support potential for hail with the strongest discrete cells, while isolated strong to severe gusts also remain possible, especially if any notable outflow consolidation occurs later this evening. ..Dean.. 07/25/2025 Read more

WW 0541 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 541 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S TOL TO 25 E TOL TO 45 SE DTW. WW 541 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 250400Z. ..SQUITIERI..07/25/25 ATTN...WFO...DTX...IWX...CLE... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 541 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LEZ163-250400- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 541 SEVERE TSTM MI OH LE 242305Z - 250400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 541 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 705 PM EDT Thu Jul 24 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southeast Lower Michigan Far Northwest Ohio Lake Erie * Effective this Thursday night from 705 PM until Midnight EDT. * Primary threats include... Isolated damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible SUMMARY...A line of strong to occasionally severe thunderstorms is moving eastward across central Lower MI, near the MI/IN/IL border intersection. This line is expected to continue eastward into the warm, moist, and strongly unstable airmass downstream across southeast Lower MI and adjacent far northwest OH. Strong to severe gusts will be possible with this line. Additional more cellular development is possible ahead of this line, which could also pose a risk for damaging water-loaded downbursts. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 40 statute miles east and west of a line from 15 miles west northwest of Mount Clemens MI to 10 miles south southwest of Toledo OH. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 540... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Mosier Read more