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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...Update... Only very subtle changes were made to the Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area for Friday based on recent NWP trends. This included a slight extension northeastward into far southwestern MT where fuels remain receptive due to a lack of recent rainfall, and a slight extension westward into far northern CA/Sierra where lower PWATs and expected QPF may still support a mix of dry and wet thunderstorms. Please see the previous discussion for additional details. ..Barnes.. 07/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1158 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level low will continue inland on D2/Friday, with more widely scattered thunderstorm activity continuing across portions of northern California into the Pacific Northwest and northern Great Basin. A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms will remain possible on the periphery of the deeper moisture. As such, an area of Isolated Dry Thunderstorm potential was maintained across the portions of the Sierras in northern California into eastern Oregon, northern Nevada, and central Idaho. Here, lower QPF amounts are forecast and fuels remain receptive to fire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...Update... Only very subtle changes were made to the Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area for Friday based on recent NWP trends. This included a slight extension northeastward into far southwestern MT where fuels remain receptive due to a lack of recent rainfall, and a slight extension westward into far northern CA/Sierra where lower PWATs and expected QPF may still support a mix of dry and wet thunderstorms. Please see the previous discussion for additional details. ..Barnes.. 07/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1158 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level low will continue inland on D2/Friday, with more widely scattered thunderstorm activity continuing across portions of northern California into the Pacific Northwest and northern Great Basin. A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms will remain possible on the periphery of the deeper moisture. As such, an area of Isolated Dry Thunderstorm potential was maintained across the portions of the Sierras in northern California into eastern Oregon, northern Nevada, and central Idaho. Here, lower QPF amounts are forecast and fuels remain receptive to fire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...Update... Only very subtle changes were made to the Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area for Friday based on recent NWP trends. This included a slight extension northeastward into far southwestern MT where fuels remain receptive due to a lack of recent rainfall, and a slight extension westward into far northern CA/Sierra where lower PWATs and expected QPF may still support a mix of dry and wet thunderstorms. Please see the previous discussion for additional details. ..Barnes.. 07/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1158 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level low will continue inland on D2/Friday, with more widely scattered thunderstorm activity continuing across portions of northern California into the Pacific Northwest and northern Great Basin. A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms will remain possible on the periphery of the deeper moisture. As such, an area of Isolated Dry Thunderstorm potential was maintained across the portions of the Sierras in northern California into eastern Oregon, northern Nevada, and central Idaho. Here, lower QPF amounts are forecast and fuels remain receptive to fire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...Update... Only very subtle changes were made to the Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area for Friday based on recent NWP trends. This included a slight extension northeastward into far southwestern MT where fuels remain receptive due to a lack of recent rainfall, and a slight extension westward into far northern CA/Sierra where lower PWATs and expected QPF may still support a mix of dry and wet thunderstorms. Please see the previous discussion for additional details. ..Barnes.. 07/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1158 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level low will continue inland on D2/Friday, with more widely scattered thunderstorm activity continuing across portions of northern California into the Pacific Northwest and northern Great Basin. A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms will remain possible on the periphery of the deeper moisture. As such, an area of Isolated Dry Thunderstorm potential was maintained across the portions of the Sierras in northern California into eastern Oregon, northern Nevada, and central Idaho. Here, lower QPF amounts are forecast and fuels remain receptive to fire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...Update... Only very subtle changes were made to the Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area for Friday based on recent NWP trends. This included a slight extension northeastward into far southwestern MT where fuels remain receptive due to a lack of recent rainfall, and a slight extension westward into far northern CA/Sierra where lower PWATs and expected QPF may still support a mix of dry and wet thunderstorms. Please see the previous discussion for additional details. ..Barnes.. 07/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1158 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level low will continue inland on D2/Friday, with more widely scattered thunderstorm activity continuing across portions of northern California into the Pacific Northwest and northern Great Basin. A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms will remain possible on the periphery of the deeper moisture. As such, an area of Isolated Dry Thunderstorm potential was maintained across the portions of the Sierras in northern California into eastern Oregon, northern Nevada, and central Idaho. Here, lower QPF amounts are forecast and fuels remain receptive to fire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...Update... Only very subtle changes were made to the Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area for Friday based on recent NWP trends. This included a slight extension northeastward into far southwestern MT where fuels remain receptive due to a lack of recent rainfall, and a slight extension westward into far northern CA/Sierra where lower PWATs and expected QPF may still support a mix of dry and wet thunderstorms. Please see the previous discussion for additional details. ..Barnes.. 07/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1158 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level low will continue inland on D2/Friday, with more widely scattered thunderstorm activity continuing across portions of northern California into the Pacific Northwest and northern Great Basin. A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms will remain possible on the periphery of the deeper moisture. As such, an area of Isolated Dry Thunderstorm potential was maintained across the portions of the Sierras in northern California into eastern Oregon, northern Nevada, and central Idaho. Here, lower QPF amounts are forecast and fuels remain receptive to fire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...Update... Only very subtle changes were made to the Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area for Friday based on recent NWP trends. This included a slight extension northeastward into far southwestern MT where fuels remain receptive due to a lack of recent rainfall, and a slight extension westward into far northern CA/Sierra where lower PWATs and expected QPF may still support a mix of dry and wet thunderstorms. Please see the previous discussion for additional details. ..Barnes.. 07/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1158 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level low will continue inland on D2/Friday, with more widely scattered thunderstorm activity continuing across portions of northern California into the Pacific Northwest and northern Great Basin. A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms will remain possible on the periphery of the deeper moisture. As such, an area of Isolated Dry Thunderstorm potential was maintained across the portions of the Sierras in northern California into eastern Oregon, northern Nevada, and central Idaho. Here, lower QPF amounts are forecast and fuels remain receptive to fire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...Update... Only very subtle changes were made to the Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area for Friday based on recent NWP trends. This included a slight extension northeastward into far southwestern MT where fuels remain receptive due to a lack of recent rainfall, and a slight extension westward into far northern CA/Sierra where lower PWATs and expected QPF may still support a mix of dry and wet thunderstorms. Please see the previous discussion for additional details. ..Barnes.. 07/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1158 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level low will continue inland on D2/Friday, with more widely scattered thunderstorm activity continuing across portions of northern California into the Pacific Northwest and northern Great Basin. A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms will remain possible on the periphery of the deeper moisture. As such, an area of Isolated Dry Thunderstorm potential was maintained across the portions of the Sierras in northern California into eastern Oregon, northern Nevada, and central Idaho. Here, lower QPF amounts are forecast and fuels remain receptive to fire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...Update... Only very subtle changes were made to the Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area for Friday based on recent NWP trends. This included a slight extension northeastward into far southwestern MT where fuels remain receptive due to a lack of recent rainfall, and a slight extension westward into far northern CA/Sierra where lower PWATs and expected QPF may still support a mix of dry and wet thunderstorms. Please see the previous discussion for additional details. ..Barnes.. 07/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1158 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level low will continue inland on D2/Friday, with more widely scattered thunderstorm activity continuing across portions of northern California into the Pacific Northwest and northern Great Basin. A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms will remain possible on the periphery of the deeper moisture. As such, an area of Isolated Dry Thunderstorm potential was maintained across the portions of the Sierras in northern California into eastern Oregon, northern Nevada, and central Idaho. Here, lower QPF amounts are forecast and fuels remain receptive to fire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...Update... Only very subtle changes were made to the Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area for Friday based on recent NWP trends. This included a slight extension northeastward into far southwestern MT where fuels remain receptive due to a lack of recent rainfall, and a slight extension westward into far northern CA/Sierra where lower PWATs and expected QPF may still support a mix of dry and wet thunderstorms. Please see the previous discussion for additional details. ..Barnes.. 07/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1158 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level low will continue inland on D2/Friday, with more widely scattered thunderstorm activity continuing across portions of northern California into the Pacific Northwest and northern Great Basin. A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms will remain possible on the periphery of the deeper moisture. As such, an area of Isolated Dry Thunderstorm potential was maintained across the portions of the Sierras in northern California into eastern Oregon, northern Nevada, and central Idaho. Here, lower QPF amounts are forecast and fuels remain receptive to fire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...Update... Only very subtle changes were made to the Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area for Friday based on recent NWP trends. This included a slight extension northeastward into far southwestern MT where fuels remain receptive due to a lack of recent rainfall, and a slight extension westward into far northern CA/Sierra where lower PWATs and expected QPF may still support a mix of dry and wet thunderstorms. Please see the previous discussion for additional details. ..Barnes.. 07/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1158 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level low will continue inland on D2/Friday, with more widely scattered thunderstorm activity continuing across portions of northern California into the Pacific Northwest and northern Great Basin. A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms will remain possible on the periphery of the deeper moisture. As such, an area of Isolated Dry Thunderstorm potential was maintained across the portions of the Sierras in northern California into eastern Oregon, northern Nevada, and central Idaho. Here, lower QPF amounts are forecast and fuels remain receptive to fire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...Update... Only very subtle changes were made to the Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area for Friday based on recent NWP trends. This included a slight extension northeastward into far southwestern MT where fuels remain receptive due to a lack of recent rainfall, and a slight extension westward into far northern CA/Sierra where lower PWATs and expected QPF may still support a mix of dry and wet thunderstorms. Please see the previous discussion for additional details. ..Barnes.. 07/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1158 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level low will continue inland on D2/Friday, with more widely scattered thunderstorm activity continuing across portions of northern California into the Pacific Northwest and northern Great Basin. A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms will remain possible on the periphery of the deeper moisture. As such, an area of Isolated Dry Thunderstorm potential was maintained across the portions of the Sierras in northern California into eastern Oregon, northern Nevada, and central Idaho. Here, lower QPF amounts are forecast and fuels remain receptive to fire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE DAKOTAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms accompanied by potentially damaging wind gusts are possible Saturday through Saturday night, across parts of the Midwest into southern Great Lakes region and across parts of the northern Rockies into the Dakotas. ...Midwest into southern Great Lakes region... Along the northern periphery of an expansive midlevel anticyclone centered on the Southeast, a convectively augmented midlevel impulse will advance eastward from the Lower Missouri Valley into the southern Great Lakes region. A related cluster of thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the start of the period, which should generally track eastward along a weak warm frontal zone extending from the Midwest through southern Great Lakes region. Diurnal heating/destabilization along the southern fringes of this activity may support an uptick in convective intensity through the afternoon -- given the development of moderate-strong surface-based buoyancy and around 30 kt of deep-layer shear. While the overall details remain unclear, damaging winds will be possible with any stronger storms that evolve. ...Northern Rockies into the Dakotas... Downstream of a broad large-scale trough over the West, guidance indicates one or more embedded midlevel perturbations advancing northeastward across the northern Rockies into the adjacent High Plains during the day. This should aid in the development of widely scattered high-based thunderstorms across the region from the afternoon into the evening/overnight hours. Steep deep-layer lapse rates and modestly enhanced midlevel southwesterly flow should support some convective organization into clusters -- with a risk of strong to severe wind gusts. While strong-extreme surface-based buoyancy and sufficient deep-layer shear farther east into the Upper Midwest will pose a conditional severe risk, substantial inhibition at the base of an EML casts too much uncertainty to add severe probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 07/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE DAKOTAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms accompanied by potentially damaging wind gusts are possible Saturday through Saturday night, across parts of the Midwest into southern Great Lakes region and across parts of the northern Rockies into the Dakotas. ...Midwest into southern Great Lakes region... Along the northern periphery of an expansive midlevel anticyclone centered on the Southeast, a convectively augmented midlevel impulse will advance eastward from the Lower Missouri Valley into the southern Great Lakes region. A related cluster of thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the start of the period, which should generally track eastward along a weak warm frontal zone extending from the Midwest through southern Great Lakes region. Diurnal heating/destabilization along the southern fringes of this activity may support an uptick in convective intensity through the afternoon -- given the development of moderate-strong surface-based buoyancy and around 30 kt of deep-layer shear. While the overall details remain unclear, damaging winds will be possible with any stronger storms that evolve. ...Northern Rockies into the Dakotas... Downstream of a broad large-scale trough over the West, guidance indicates one or more embedded midlevel perturbations advancing northeastward across the northern Rockies into the adjacent High Plains during the day. This should aid in the development of widely scattered high-based thunderstorms across the region from the afternoon into the evening/overnight hours. Steep deep-layer lapse rates and modestly enhanced midlevel southwesterly flow should support some convective organization into clusters -- with a risk of strong to severe wind gusts. While strong-extreme surface-based buoyancy and sufficient deep-layer shear farther east into the Upper Midwest will pose a conditional severe risk, substantial inhibition at the base of an EML casts too much uncertainty to add severe probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 07/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE DAKOTAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms accompanied by potentially damaging wind gusts are possible Saturday through Saturday night, across parts of the Midwest into southern Great Lakes region and across parts of the northern Rockies into the Dakotas. ...Midwest into southern Great Lakes region... Along the northern periphery of an expansive midlevel anticyclone centered on the Southeast, a convectively augmented midlevel impulse will advance eastward from the Lower Missouri Valley into the southern Great Lakes region. A related cluster of thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the start of the period, which should generally track eastward along a weak warm frontal zone extending from the Midwest through southern Great Lakes region. Diurnal heating/destabilization along the southern fringes of this activity may support an uptick in convective intensity through the afternoon -- given the development of moderate-strong surface-based buoyancy and around 30 kt of deep-layer shear. While the overall details remain unclear, damaging winds will be possible with any stronger storms that evolve. ...Northern Rockies into the Dakotas... Downstream of a broad large-scale trough over the West, guidance indicates one or more embedded midlevel perturbations advancing northeastward across the northern Rockies into the adjacent High Plains during the day. This should aid in the development of widely scattered high-based thunderstorms across the region from the afternoon into the evening/overnight hours. Steep deep-layer lapse rates and modestly enhanced midlevel southwesterly flow should support some convective organization into clusters -- with a risk of strong to severe wind gusts. While strong-extreme surface-based buoyancy and sufficient deep-layer shear farther east into the Upper Midwest will pose a conditional severe risk, substantial inhibition at the base of an EML casts too much uncertainty to add severe probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 07/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE DAKOTAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms accompanied by potentially damaging wind gusts are possible Saturday through Saturday night, across parts of the Midwest into southern Great Lakes region and across parts of the northern Rockies into the Dakotas. ...Midwest into southern Great Lakes region... Along the northern periphery of an expansive midlevel anticyclone centered on the Southeast, a convectively augmented midlevel impulse will advance eastward from the Lower Missouri Valley into the southern Great Lakes region. A related cluster of thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the start of the period, which should generally track eastward along a weak warm frontal zone extending from the Midwest through southern Great Lakes region. Diurnal heating/destabilization along the southern fringes of this activity may support an uptick in convective intensity through the afternoon -- given the development of moderate-strong surface-based buoyancy and around 30 kt of deep-layer shear. While the overall details remain unclear, damaging winds will be possible with any stronger storms that evolve. ...Northern Rockies into the Dakotas... Downstream of a broad large-scale trough over the West, guidance indicates one or more embedded midlevel perturbations advancing northeastward across the northern Rockies into the adjacent High Plains during the day. This should aid in the development of widely scattered high-based thunderstorms across the region from the afternoon into the evening/overnight hours. Steep deep-layer lapse rates and modestly enhanced midlevel southwesterly flow should support some convective organization into clusters -- with a risk of strong to severe wind gusts. While strong-extreme surface-based buoyancy and sufficient deep-layer shear farther east into the Upper Midwest will pose a conditional severe risk, substantial inhibition at the base of an EML casts too much uncertainty to add severe probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 07/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE DAKOTAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms accompanied by potentially damaging wind gusts are possible Saturday through Saturday night, across parts of the Midwest into southern Great Lakes region and across parts of the northern Rockies into the Dakotas. ...Midwest into southern Great Lakes region... Along the northern periphery of an expansive midlevel anticyclone centered on the Southeast, a convectively augmented midlevel impulse will advance eastward from the Lower Missouri Valley into the southern Great Lakes region. A related cluster of thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the start of the period, which should generally track eastward along a weak warm frontal zone extending from the Midwest through southern Great Lakes region. Diurnal heating/destabilization along the southern fringes of this activity may support an uptick in convective intensity through the afternoon -- given the development of moderate-strong surface-based buoyancy and around 30 kt of deep-layer shear. While the overall details remain unclear, damaging winds will be possible with any stronger storms that evolve. ...Northern Rockies into the Dakotas... Downstream of a broad large-scale trough over the West, guidance indicates one or more embedded midlevel perturbations advancing northeastward across the northern Rockies into the adjacent High Plains during the day. This should aid in the development of widely scattered high-based thunderstorms across the region from the afternoon into the evening/overnight hours. Steep deep-layer lapse rates and modestly enhanced midlevel southwesterly flow should support some convective organization into clusters -- with a risk of strong to severe wind gusts. While strong-extreme surface-based buoyancy and sufficient deep-layer shear farther east into the Upper Midwest will pose a conditional severe risk, substantial inhibition at the base of an EML casts too much uncertainty to add severe probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 07/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE DAKOTAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms accompanied by potentially damaging wind gusts are possible Saturday through Saturday night, across parts of the Midwest into southern Great Lakes region and across parts of the northern Rockies into the Dakotas. ...Midwest into southern Great Lakes region... Along the northern periphery of an expansive midlevel anticyclone centered on the Southeast, a convectively augmented midlevel impulse will advance eastward from the Lower Missouri Valley into the southern Great Lakes region. A related cluster of thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the start of the period, which should generally track eastward along a weak warm frontal zone extending from the Midwest through southern Great Lakes region. Diurnal heating/destabilization along the southern fringes of this activity may support an uptick in convective intensity through the afternoon -- given the development of moderate-strong surface-based buoyancy and around 30 kt of deep-layer shear. While the overall details remain unclear, damaging winds will be possible with any stronger storms that evolve. ...Northern Rockies into the Dakotas... Downstream of a broad large-scale trough over the West, guidance indicates one or more embedded midlevel perturbations advancing northeastward across the northern Rockies into the adjacent High Plains during the day. This should aid in the development of widely scattered high-based thunderstorms across the region from the afternoon into the evening/overnight hours. Steep deep-layer lapse rates and modestly enhanced midlevel southwesterly flow should support some convective organization into clusters -- with a risk of strong to severe wind gusts. While strong-extreme surface-based buoyancy and sufficient deep-layer shear farther east into the Upper Midwest will pose a conditional severe risk, substantial inhibition at the base of an EML casts too much uncertainty to add severe probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 07/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE DAKOTAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms accompanied by potentially damaging wind gusts are possible Saturday through Saturday night, across parts of the Midwest into southern Great Lakes region and across parts of the northern Rockies into the Dakotas. ...Midwest into southern Great Lakes region... Along the northern periphery of an expansive midlevel anticyclone centered on the Southeast, a convectively augmented midlevel impulse will advance eastward from the Lower Missouri Valley into the southern Great Lakes region. A related cluster of thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the start of the period, which should generally track eastward along a weak warm frontal zone extending from the Midwest through southern Great Lakes region. Diurnal heating/destabilization along the southern fringes of this activity may support an uptick in convective intensity through the afternoon -- given the development of moderate-strong surface-based buoyancy and around 30 kt of deep-layer shear. While the overall details remain unclear, damaging winds will be possible with any stronger storms that evolve. ...Northern Rockies into the Dakotas... Downstream of a broad large-scale trough over the West, guidance indicates one or more embedded midlevel perturbations advancing northeastward across the northern Rockies into the adjacent High Plains during the day. This should aid in the development of widely scattered high-based thunderstorms across the region from the afternoon into the evening/overnight hours. Steep deep-layer lapse rates and modestly enhanced midlevel southwesterly flow should support some convective organization into clusters -- with a risk of strong to severe wind gusts. While strong-extreme surface-based buoyancy and sufficient deep-layer shear farther east into the Upper Midwest will pose a conditional severe risk, substantial inhibition at the base of an EML casts too much uncertainty to add severe probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 07/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE DAKOTAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms accompanied by potentially damaging wind gusts are possible Saturday through Saturday night, across parts of the Midwest into southern Great Lakes region and across parts of the northern Rockies into the Dakotas. ...Midwest into southern Great Lakes region... Along the northern periphery of an expansive midlevel anticyclone centered on the Southeast, a convectively augmented midlevel impulse will advance eastward from the Lower Missouri Valley into the southern Great Lakes region. A related cluster of thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the start of the period, which should generally track eastward along a weak warm frontal zone extending from the Midwest through southern Great Lakes region. Diurnal heating/destabilization along the southern fringes of this activity may support an uptick in convective intensity through the afternoon -- given the development of moderate-strong surface-based buoyancy and around 30 kt of deep-layer shear. While the overall details remain unclear, damaging winds will be possible with any stronger storms that evolve. ...Northern Rockies into the Dakotas... Downstream of a broad large-scale trough over the West, guidance indicates one or more embedded midlevel perturbations advancing northeastward across the northern Rockies into the adjacent High Plains during the day. This should aid in the development of widely scattered high-based thunderstorms across the region from the afternoon into the evening/overnight hours. Steep deep-layer lapse rates and modestly enhanced midlevel southwesterly flow should support some convective organization into clusters -- with a risk of strong to severe wind gusts. While strong-extreme surface-based buoyancy and sufficient deep-layer shear farther east into the Upper Midwest will pose a conditional severe risk, substantial inhibition at the base of an EML casts too much uncertainty to add severe probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 07/24/2025 Read more