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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF MICHIGAN AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO THE MIDWEST...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Locally damaging thunderstorm wind gusts will be possible from the Great Lakes to the central and southern Plains, mainly this afternoon and evening. Isolated severe storms will also pose a risk of large hail and severe wind gusts over the northern and central High Plains. ...Lower MI into the lower Great Lakes... The Marginal Risk has been maintained across lower MI and adjacent parts of the Great Lakes, though higher wind probabilities may eventually be needed, if confidence increases in a sufficient coverage of organized storm development later today into this evening. Multiple low-amplitude midlevel vorticity maxima (including potentially one or more MCVs) will move across parts of the Great Lakes region later today, within a broader large-scale upper-level trough. A cold front will move southeastward across parts of the upper Midwest and Great Lakes through the day into the evening. Diurnal heating of a richly moist airmass will result in the development of moderate buoyancy along/ahead of the front this afternoon. This destabilization will occur beneath moderate low/midlevel southwesterly flow (25-40 kt in the 850-700 mb layer). The resulting environment will be favorable for outflow-dominant storm clusters capable of wind damage. However, details of storm coverage and timing remain uncertain, due to weak frontal convergence and generally modest large-scale ascent, outside of the potential influence of any MCVs. There is some potential for development relatively early in the day across central/northern Lower MI, when somewhat steeper midlevel lapse rates may still be in place. This scenario may be the greatest relative threat for organized storms, though guidance varies regarding the coverage of storms through early afternoon. Otherwise, midlevel temperatures will tend to warm by later afternoon, though any stronger cells/clusters would still be capable of producing wind damage as low-level lapse rates steepen. Storms may spread into parts of western NY from Ontario late this evening. While a general weakening trend is expected by this time, strong to locally damaging gusts cannot be ruled out late tonight before convection subsides. ...Northern MO/IL/IN into central/eastern KS and northern OK... Scattered storm development is expected this afternoon and evening from central/eastern KS and northern OK into parts of northern MO/IL/IN, along and ahead of a cold front. Somewhat enhanced low/midlevel flow will be present across northern IL/IN early in the day, but gradual weakening of flow is generally forecast with time. Farther southwest, flow is forecast to remain rather weak into northern MO and the central/southern Plains. As a result, storm organization may tend to be limited, but moderate to strong buoyancy and large PW (potentially 2 inches or greater) will support a threat of localized downbursts. One or more small clusters could develop and pose a threat for more concentrated wind damage, but confidence in the details of this potential scenario remains low. ...High Plains... Moderate buoyancy is expected to develop across parts of the central and northern High Plains this afternoon. Large-scale ascent will generally be nebulous in the wake of a departing shortwave trough, but at least isolated storm development is possible near the adjacent higher terrain. Effective shear of 30-40 kt will support some storm organization. Initial discrete cells may pose a threat of hail, while some outflow amalgamation could eventually occur, with a threat of strong to locally severe gusts spreading eastward into the evening. Farther south, scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected into parts of the southern High Plains. Deep-layer shear will be weak across this region, but localized strong to severe outflow gusts will be possible. ..Dean/Thornton.. 07/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF MICHIGAN AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO THE MIDWEST...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Locally damaging thunderstorm wind gusts will be possible from the Great Lakes to the central and southern Plains, mainly this afternoon and evening. Isolated severe storms will also pose a risk of large hail and severe wind gusts over the northern and central High Plains. ...Lower MI into the lower Great Lakes... The Marginal Risk has been maintained across lower MI and adjacent parts of the Great Lakes, though higher wind probabilities may eventually be needed, if confidence increases in a sufficient coverage of organized storm development later today into this evening. Multiple low-amplitude midlevel vorticity maxima (including potentially one or more MCVs) will move across parts of the Great Lakes region later today, within a broader large-scale upper-level trough. A cold front will move southeastward across parts of the upper Midwest and Great Lakes through the day into the evening. Diurnal heating of a richly moist airmass will result in the development of moderate buoyancy along/ahead of the front this afternoon. This destabilization will occur beneath moderate low/midlevel southwesterly flow (25-40 kt in the 850-700 mb layer). The resulting environment will be favorable for outflow-dominant storm clusters capable of wind damage. However, details of storm coverage and timing remain uncertain, due to weak frontal convergence and generally modest large-scale ascent, outside of the potential influence of any MCVs. There is some potential for development relatively early in the day across central/northern Lower MI, when somewhat steeper midlevel lapse rates may still be in place. This scenario may be the greatest relative threat for organized storms, though guidance varies regarding the coverage of storms through early afternoon. Otherwise, midlevel temperatures will tend to warm by later afternoon, though any stronger cells/clusters would still be capable of producing wind damage as low-level lapse rates steepen. Storms may spread into parts of western NY from Ontario late this evening. While a general weakening trend is expected by this time, strong to locally damaging gusts cannot be ruled out late tonight before convection subsides. ...Northern MO/IL/IN into central/eastern KS and northern OK... Scattered storm development is expected this afternoon and evening from central/eastern KS and northern OK into parts of northern MO/IL/IN, along and ahead of a cold front. Somewhat enhanced low/midlevel flow will be present across northern IL/IN early in the day, but gradual weakening of flow is generally forecast with time. Farther southwest, flow is forecast to remain rather weak into northern MO and the central/southern Plains. As a result, storm organization may tend to be limited, but moderate to strong buoyancy and large PW (potentially 2 inches or greater) will support a threat of localized downbursts. One or more small clusters could develop and pose a threat for more concentrated wind damage, but confidence in the details of this potential scenario remains low. ...High Plains... Moderate buoyancy is expected to develop across parts of the central and northern High Plains this afternoon. Large-scale ascent will generally be nebulous in the wake of a departing shortwave trough, but at least isolated storm development is possible near the adjacent higher terrain. Effective shear of 30-40 kt will support some storm organization. Initial discrete cells may pose a threat of hail, while some outflow amalgamation could eventually occur, with a threat of strong to locally severe gusts spreading eastward into the evening. Farther south, scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected into parts of the southern High Plains. Deep-layer shear will be weak across this region, but localized strong to severe outflow gusts will be possible. ..Dean/Thornton.. 07/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF MICHIGAN AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO THE MIDWEST...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Locally damaging thunderstorm wind gusts will be possible from the Great Lakes to the central and southern Plains, mainly this afternoon and evening. Isolated severe storms will also pose a risk of large hail and severe wind gusts over the northern and central High Plains. ...Lower MI into the lower Great Lakes... The Marginal Risk has been maintained across lower MI and adjacent parts of the Great Lakes, though higher wind probabilities may eventually be needed, if confidence increases in a sufficient coverage of organized storm development later today into this evening. Multiple low-amplitude midlevel vorticity maxima (including potentially one or more MCVs) will move across parts of the Great Lakes region later today, within a broader large-scale upper-level trough. A cold front will move southeastward across parts of the upper Midwest and Great Lakes through the day into the evening. Diurnal heating of a richly moist airmass will result in the development of moderate buoyancy along/ahead of the front this afternoon. This destabilization will occur beneath moderate low/midlevel southwesterly flow (25-40 kt in the 850-700 mb layer). The resulting environment will be favorable for outflow-dominant storm clusters capable of wind damage. However, details of storm coverage and timing remain uncertain, due to weak frontal convergence and generally modest large-scale ascent, outside of the potential influence of any MCVs. There is some potential for development relatively early in the day across central/northern Lower MI, when somewhat steeper midlevel lapse rates may still be in place. This scenario may be the greatest relative threat for organized storms, though guidance varies regarding the coverage of storms through early afternoon. Otherwise, midlevel temperatures will tend to warm by later afternoon, though any stronger cells/clusters would still be capable of producing wind damage as low-level lapse rates steepen. Storms may spread into parts of western NY from Ontario late this evening. While a general weakening trend is expected by this time, strong to locally damaging gusts cannot be ruled out late tonight before convection subsides. ...Northern MO/IL/IN into central/eastern KS and northern OK... Scattered storm development is expected this afternoon and evening from central/eastern KS and northern OK into parts of northern MO/IL/IN, along and ahead of a cold front. Somewhat enhanced low/midlevel flow will be present across northern IL/IN early in the day, but gradual weakening of flow is generally forecast with time. Farther southwest, flow is forecast to remain rather weak into northern MO and the central/southern Plains. As a result, storm organization may tend to be limited, but moderate to strong buoyancy and large PW (potentially 2 inches or greater) will support a threat of localized downbursts. One or more small clusters could develop and pose a threat for more concentrated wind damage, but confidence in the details of this potential scenario remains low. ...High Plains... Moderate buoyancy is expected to develop across parts of the central and northern High Plains this afternoon. Large-scale ascent will generally be nebulous in the wake of a departing shortwave trough, but at least isolated storm development is possible near the adjacent higher terrain. Effective shear of 30-40 kt will support some storm organization. Initial discrete cells may pose a threat of hail, while some outflow amalgamation could eventually occur, with a threat of strong to locally severe gusts spreading eastward into the evening. Farther south, scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected into parts of the southern High Plains. Deep-layer shear will be weak across this region, but localized strong to severe outflow gusts will be possible. ..Dean/Thornton.. 07/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF MICHIGAN AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO THE MIDWEST...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Locally damaging thunderstorm wind gusts will be possible from the Great Lakes to the central and southern Plains, mainly this afternoon and evening. Isolated severe storms will also pose a risk of large hail and severe wind gusts over the northern and central High Plains. ...Lower MI into the lower Great Lakes... The Marginal Risk has been maintained across lower MI and adjacent parts of the Great Lakes, though higher wind probabilities may eventually be needed, if confidence increases in a sufficient coverage of organized storm development later today into this evening. Multiple low-amplitude midlevel vorticity maxima (including potentially one or more MCVs) will move across parts of the Great Lakes region later today, within a broader large-scale upper-level trough. A cold front will move southeastward across parts of the upper Midwest and Great Lakes through the day into the evening. Diurnal heating of a richly moist airmass will result in the development of moderate buoyancy along/ahead of the front this afternoon. This destabilization will occur beneath moderate low/midlevel southwesterly flow (25-40 kt in the 850-700 mb layer). The resulting environment will be favorable for outflow-dominant storm clusters capable of wind damage. However, details of storm coverage and timing remain uncertain, due to weak frontal convergence and generally modest large-scale ascent, outside of the potential influence of any MCVs. There is some potential for development relatively early in the day across central/northern Lower MI, when somewhat steeper midlevel lapse rates may still be in place. This scenario may be the greatest relative threat for organized storms, though guidance varies regarding the coverage of storms through early afternoon. Otherwise, midlevel temperatures will tend to warm by later afternoon, though any stronger cells/clusters would still be capable of producing wind damage as low-level lapse rates steepen. Storms may spread into parts of western NY from Ontario late this evening. While a general weakening trend is expected by this time, strong to locally damaging gusts cannot be ruled out late tonight before convection subsides. ...Northern MO/IL/IN into central/eastern KS and northern OK... Scattered storm development is expected this afternoon and evening from central/eastern KS and northern OK into parts of northern MO/IL/IN, along and ahead of a cold front. Somewhat enhanced low/midlevel flow will be present across northern IL/IN early in the day, but gradual weakening of flow is generally forecast with time. Farther southwest, flow is forecast to remain rather weak into northern MO and the central/southern Plains. As a result, storm organization may tend to be limited, but moderate to strong buoyancy and large PW (potentially 2 inches or greater) will support a threat of localized downbursts. One or more small clusters could develop and pose a threat for more concentrated wind damage, but confidence in the details of this potential scenario remains low. ...High Plains... Moderate buoyancy is expected to develop across parts of the central and northern High Plains this afternoon. Large-scale ascent will generally be nebulous in the wake of a departing shortwave trough, but at least isolated storm development is possible near the adjacent higher terrain. Effective shear of 30-40 kt will support some storm organization. Initial discrete cells may pose a threat of hail, while some outflow amalgamation could eventually occur, with a threat of strong to locally severe gusts spreading eastward into the evening. Farther south, scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected into parts of the southern High Plains. Deep-layer shear will be weak across this region, but localized strong to severe outflow gusts will be possible. ..Dean/Thornton.. 07/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF MICHIGAN AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO THE MIDWEST...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Locally damaging thunderstorm wind gusts will be possible from the Great Lakes to the central and southern Plains, mainly this afternoon and evening. Isolated severe storms will also pose a risk of large hail and severe wind gusts over the northern and central High Plains. ...Lower MI into the lower Great Lakes... The Marginal Risk has been maintained across lower MI and adjacent parts of the Great Lakes, though higher wind probabilities may eventually be needed, if confidence increases in a sufficient coverage of organized storm development later today into this evening. Multiple low-amplitude midlevel vorticity maxima (including potentially one or more MCVs) will move across parts of the Great Lakes region later today, within a broader large-scale upper-level trough. A cold front will move southeastward across parts of the upper Midwest and Great Lakes through the day into the evening. Diurnal heating of a richly moist airmass will result in the development of moderate buoyancy along/ahead of the front this afternoon. This destabilization will occur beneath moderate low/midlevel southwesterly flow (25-40 kt in the 850-700 mb layer). The resulting environment will be favorable for outflow-dominant storm clusters capable of wind damage. However, details of storm coverage and timing remain uncertain, due to weak frontal convergence and generally modest large-scale ascent, outside of the potential influence of any MCVs. There is some potential for development relatively early in the day across central/northern Lower MI, when somewhat steeper midlevel lapse rates may still be in place. This scenario may be the greatest relative threat for organized storms, though guidance varies regarding the coverage of storms through early afternoon. Otherwise, midlevel temperatures will tend to warm by later afternoon, though any stronger cells/clusters would still be capable of producing wind damage as low-level lapse rates steepen. Storms may spread into parts of western NY from Ontario late this evening. While a general weakening trend is expected by this time, strong to locally damaging gusts cannot be ruled out late tonight before convection subsides. ...Northern MO/IL/IN into central/eastern KS and northern OK... Scattered storm development is expected this afternoon and evening from central/eastern KS and northern OK into parts of northern MO/IL/IN, along and ahead of a cold front. Somewhat enhanced low/midlevel flow will be present across northern IL/IN early in the day, but gradual weakening of flow is generally forecast with time. Farther southwest, flow is forecast to remain rather weak into northern MO and the central/southern Plains. As a result, storm organization may tend to be limited, but moderate to strong buoyancy and large PW (potentially 2 inches or greater) will support a threat of localized downbursts. One or more small clusters could develop and pose a threat for more concentrated wind damage, but confidence in the details of this potential scenario remains low. ...High Plains... Moderate buoyancy is expected to develop across parts of the central and northern High Plains this afternoon. Large-scale ascent will generally be nebulous in the wake of a departing shortwave trough, but at least isolated storm development is possible near the adjacent higher terrain. Effective shear of 30-40 kt will support some storm organization. Initial discrete cells may pose a threat of hail, while some outflow amalgamation could eventually occur, with a threat of strong to locally severe gusts spreading eastward into the evening. Farther south, scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected into parts of the southern High Plains. Deep-layer shear will be weak across this region, but localized strong to severe outflow gusts will be possible. ..Dean/Thornton.. 07/24/2025 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 240501
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Wed Jul 23 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Well Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands:
An area of low pressure is forecast to develop well to the southeast
of the Hawaiian Islands by this weekend. Thereafter, some gradual
development is possible while the system moves generally westward at
10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Gibbs/Papin

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1158 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level low will continue inland on D2/Friday, with more widely scattered thunderstorm activity continuing across portions of northern California into the Pacific Northwest and northern Great Basin. A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms will remain possible on the periphery of the deeper moisture. As such, an area of Isolated Dry Thunderstorm potential was maintained across the portions of the Sierras in northern California into eastern Oregon, northern Nevada, and central Idaho. Here, lower QPF amounts are forecast and fuels remain receptive to fire spread. ..Thornton.. 07/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1158 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level low will continue inland on D2/Friday, with more widely scattered thunderstorm activity continuing across portions of northern California into the Pacific Northwest and northern Great Basin. A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms will remain possible on the periphery of the deeper moisture. As such, an area of Isolated Dry Thunderstorm potential was maintained across the portions of the Sierras in northern California into eastern Oregon, northern Nevada, and central Idaho. Here, lower QPF amounts are forecast and fuels remain receptive to fire spread. ..Thornton.. 07/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1158 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level low will continue inland on D2/Friday, with more widely scattered thunderstorm activity continuing across portions of northern California into the Pacific Northwest and northern Great Basin. A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms will remain possible on the periphery of the deeper moisture. As such, an area of Isolated Dry Thunderstorm potential was maintained across the portions of the Sierras in northern California into eastern Oregon, northern Nevada, and central Idaho. Here, lower QPF amounts are forecast and fuels remain receptive to fire spread. ..Thornton.. 07/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1158 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level low will continue inland on D2/Friday, with more widely scattered thunderstorm activity continuing across portions of northern California into the Pacific Northwest and northern Great Basin. A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms will remain possible on the periphery of the deeper moisture. As such, an area of Isolated Dry Thunderstorm potential was maintained across the portions of the Sierras in northern California into eastern Oregon, northern Nevada, and central Idaho. Here, lower QPF amounts are forecast and fuels remain receptive to fire spread. ..Thornton.. 07/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1158 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level low will continue inland on D2/Friday, with more widely scattered thunderstorm activity continuing across portions of northern California into the Pacific Northwest and northern Great Basin. A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms will remain possible on the periphery of the deeper moisture. As such, an area of Isolated Dry Thunderstorm potential was maintained across the portions of the Sierras in northern California into eastern Oregon, northern Nevada, and central Idaho. Here, lower QPF amounts are forecast and fuels remain receptive to fire spread. ..Thornton.. 07/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1158 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level low will continue inland on D2/Friday, with more widely scattered thunderstorm activity continuing across portions of northern California into the Pacific Northwest and northern Great Basin. A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms will remain possible on the periphery of the deeper moisture. As such, an area of Isolated Dry Thunderstorm potential was maintained across the portions of the Sierras in northern California into eastern Oregon, northern Nevada, and central Idaho. Here, lower QPF amounts are forecast and fuels remain receptive to fire spread. ..Thornton.. 07/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

The Madison River, Firehole River and Gibbon River closed to fishing from 2 p.m. to sunrise the following day due to warm water temperatures and low river flows. National Park Service, June 18, 2025 Some rivers in Yellowstone National Park closed to fishing on July 12 due to warm water temperatures and low river flows. This includes the Madison River, Firehole River, Gibbon River downstream of Norris Campground and all tributaries associated with those rivers. National Park Service, July 11, 2025

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... A closed mid-level low will bring moisture in across portions of northern California into the Pacific Northwest. A trough is expected to dig into the Pacific Northwest, with increasing westerly flow overspreading the Cascades. Some locally Elevated fire weather concerns will be possible across the Cascade Gaps. ...Dry Thunderstorms... An increase in shower and thunderstorm activity is expected across portions of northern California and southern Oregon with the increase in moisture and inland progression of the upper low. A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms are expected a moisture increases through the afternoon. Forecast soundings indicate the boundary layer conditions will be initially very dry, though training storms will likely lead to moistening through time. It is likely that localized areas of wetting rainfall will occur, but productive lighting activity will likely lead to strikes outside of the heavier cores. An area of Scattered Dry Thunderstorms was maintained with this outlook, as overall broad QPF amounts appear light and fuels remain critically dry. A broader area of Isolated Dry Thunderstorm risk was reduced across north-central California where PWs will be around 1.00". The broader area extending into southern Oregon, Idaho and northern Nevada was maintained. ..Thornton.. 07/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... A closed mid-level low will bring moisture in across portions of northern California into the Pacific Northwest. A trough is expected to dig into the Pacific Northwest, with increasing westerly flow overspreading the Cascades. Some locally Elevated fire weather concerns will be possible across the Cascade Gaps. ...Dry Thunderstorms... An increase in shower and thunderstorm activity is expected across portions of northern California and southern Oregon with the increase in moisture and inland progression of the upper low. A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms are expected a moisture increases through the afternoon. Forecast soundings indicate the boundary layer conditions will be initially very dry, though training storms will likely lead to moistening through time. It is likely that localized areas of wetting rainfall will occur, but productive lighting activity will likely lead to strikes outside of the heavier cores. An area of Scattered Dry Thunderstorms was maintained with this outlook, as overall broad QPF amounts appear light and fuels remain critically dry. A broader area of Isolated Dry Thunderstorm risk was reduced across north-central California where PWs will be around 1.00". The broader area extending into southern Oregon, Idaho and northern Nevada was maintained. ..Thornton.. 07/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... A closed mid-level low will bring moisture in across portions of northern California into the Pacific Northwest. A trough is expected to dig into the Pacific Northwest, with increasing westerly flow overspreading the Cascades. Some locally Elevated fire weather concerns will be possible across the Cascade Gaps. ...Dry Thunderstorms... An increase in shower and thunderstorm activity is expected across portions of northern California and southern Oregon with the increase in moisture and inland progression of the upper low. A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms are expected a moisture increases through the afternoon. Forecast soundings indicate the boundary layer conditions will be initially very dry, though training storms will likely lead to moistening through time. It is likely that localized areas of wetting rainfall will occur, but productive lighting activity will likely lead to strikes outside of the heavier cores. An area of Scattered Dry Thunderstorms was maintained with this outlook, as overall broad QPF amounts appear light and fuels remain critically dry. A broader area of Isolated Dry Thunderstorm risk was reduced across north-central California where PWs will be around 1.00". The broader area extending into southern Oregon, Idaho and northern Nevada was maintained. ..Thornton.. 07/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... A closed mid-level low will bring moisture in across portions of northern California into the Pacific Northwest. A trough is expected to dig into the Pacific Northwest, with increasing westerly flow overspreading the Cascades. Some locally Elevated fire weather concerns will be possible across the Cascade Gaps. ...Dry Thunderstorms... An increase in shower and thunderstorm activity is expected across portions of northern California and southern Oregon with the increase in moisture and inland progression of the upper low. A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms are expected a moisture increases through the afternoon. Forecast soundings indicate the boundary layer conditions will be initially very dry, though training storms will likely lead to moistening through time. It is likely that localized areas of wetting rainfall will occur, but productive lighting activity will likely lead to strikes outside of the heavier cores. An area of Scattered Dry Thunderstorms was maintained with this outlook, as overall broad QPF amounts appear light and fuels remain critically dry. A broader area of Isolated Dry Thunderstorm risk was reduced across north-central California where PWs will be around 1.00". The broader area extending into southern Oregon, Idaho and northern Nevada was maintained. ..Thornton.. 07/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... A closed mid-level low will bring moisture in across portions of northern California into the Pacific Northwest. A trough is expected to dig into the Pacific Northwest, with increasing westerly flow overspreading the Cascades. Some locally Elevated fire weather concerns will be possible across the Cascade Gaps. ...Dry Thunderstorms... An increase in shower and thunderstorm activity is expected across portions of northern California and southern Oregon with the increase in moisture and inland progression of the upper low. A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms are expected a moisture increases through the afternoon. Forecast soundings indicate the boundary layer conditions will be initially very dry, though training storms will likely lead to moistening through time. It is likely that localized areas of wetting rainfall will occur, but productive lighting activity will likely lead to strikes outside of the heavier cores. An area of Scattered Dry Thunderstorms was maintained with this outlook, as overall broad QPF amounts appear light and fuels remain critically dry. A broader area of Isolated Dry Thunderstorm risk was reduced across north-central California where PWs will be around 1.00". The broader area extending into southern Oregon, Idaho and northern Nevada was maintained. ..Thornton.. 07/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... A closed mid-level low will bring moisture in across portions of northern California into the Pacific Northwest. A trough is expected to dig into the Pacific Northwest, with increasing westerly flow overspreading the Cascades. Some locally Elevated fire weather concerns will be possible across the Cascade Gaps. ...Dry Thunderstorms... An increase in shower and thunderstorm activity is expected across portions of northern California and southern Oregon with the increase in moisture and inland progression of the upper low. A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms are expected a moisture increases through the afternoon. Forecast soundings indicate the boundary layer conditions will be initially very dry, though training storms will likely lead to moistening through time. It is likely that localized areas of wetting rainfall will occur, but productive lighting activity will likely lead to strikes outside of the heavier cores. An area of Scattered Dry Thunderstorms was maintained with this outlook, as overall broad QPF amounts appear light and fuels remain critically dry. A broader area of Isolated Dry Thunderstorm risk was reduced across north-central California where PWs will be around 1.00". The broader area extending into southern Oregon, Idaho and northern Nevada was maintained. ..Thornton.. 07/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... A closed mid-level low will bring moisture in across portions of northern California into the Pacific Northwest. A trough is expected to dig into the Pacific Northwest, with increasing westerly flow overspreading the Cascades. Some locally Elevated fire weather concerns will be possible across the Cascade Gaps. ...Dry Thunderstorms... An increase in shower and thunderstorm activity is expected across portions of northern California and southern Oregon with the increase in moisture and inland progression of the upper low. A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms are expected a moisture increases through the afternoon. Forecast soundings indicate the boundary layer conditions will be initially very dry, though training storms will likely lead to moistening through time. It is likely that localized areas of wetting rainfall will occur, but productive lighting activity will likely lead to strikes outside of the heavier cores. An area of Scattered Dry Thunderstorms was maintained with this outlook, as overall broad QPF amounts appear light and fuels remain critically dry. A broader area of Isolated Dry Thunderstorm risk was reduced across north-central California where PWs will be around 1.00". The broader area extending into southern Oregon, Idaho and northern Nevada was maintained. ..Thornton.. 07/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more