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Oregon Governor Tina Kotek signed a bill on Friday, July 18, that has the potential to increase water supplies for farmers in Jefferson County who have dealt with low water allocations due to multiyear drought. The bill authorizes water managers in Central Oregon to create a water bank to shift irrigation water to farmers in Jefferson County who operate in a junior water rights district. Growers who do not need their water, and are willing to part with it, are paid a fee by the end user. The Bend Bulletin (Ore.), July 22, 2025

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible over parts of the northern Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley this afternoon into tonight. ...20z Update... Minor updates were made to the D1 Convective Outlook to reduce the Marginal Risk area across North Dakota into northern Minnesota where the front has shifted southward with influence from morning convection. Otherwise, the Slight Risk across the northern Plains into the upper Midwest remains on track. There continues to remain some uncertainty on what the corridor for greater wind risk will be this evening. Cloud cover remains across much of the Slight Risk area. It is mostly clear across southern South Dakota into Wyoming, where temperatures are warming. Thunderstorm activity has begun across the high terrain in Montana and Wyoming. See the previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 07/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025/ ...Northern Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley... Visible-satellite imagery late this morning shows extensive cloud debris and convective outflow from ongoing and early morning shower/thunderstorm activity. A composite outflow/front is draped from the ND/MN Red River Valley west-southwestward into northwest SD, with another frontal segment extending into northern WY. Weak to neutral height rises across the northern Plains this afternoon will likely not support a northward oscillation of the boundary into southwest ND. A belt of moderate to strong southwesterly 500-mb flow overhead the north-central Rockies and adjacent plains will be downstream of a larger-scale trough pivoting east across the northern Rockies through tonight. In agreement with earlier forecast thinking, it appears probable that diurnal storms will favor the general area of northern WY/southern MT. This region will generally be post-frontal, but steep mid-level lapse rates and a modestly moist low-level airmass should still aid in the development of at least weak instability. Strong deep-layer shear should support supercells initially, with associated threat for large to perhaps isolated very large hail. Some potential should exist for this convection to grow upscale this evening across parts of the Dakotas and pose a greater threat for severe/damaging winds overnight. But, uncertainty remains high regarding the placement of this possible cluster, and whether it will remain surface-based or elevated. Farther east into the upper MS Valley, it appears less likely that robust convection will develop before this evening due to the stabilizing influence of the ongoing morning activity. If thunderstorms can develop later, most short-term guidance continues to suggest that sufficient airmass recovery will occur to support severe convection with mainly a hail/wind threat. Some diurnal hail/wind threat may develop across IA in association with the lower MO Valley MCV. Uncertainty remains high regarding this scenario. ...Central High Plains... Scattered to numerous high-based thunderstorms should develop this afternoon along/near the surface lee trough extending southward across the central High Plains. While low/mid-level flow and deep-layer shear are all expected to remain weak today across this region due to closer proximity to the upper ridge, heating will contribute to the development of steep 0-3 km lapse rates. Severe gusts will be the primary hazard. ...Southeast... A weak cold front will shift southward today across parts of GA/SC. A rather moist low-level airmass will be in place ahead of the front, with daytime heating encouraging the development of moderate to locally strong instability through the afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms that develop along/ahead of the front, and along various sea breeze circulations, may be capable of producing occasional damaging winds, even though shear will remain weak. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible over parts of the northern Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley this afternoon into tonight. ...20z Update... Minor updates were made to the D1 Convective Outlook to reduce the Marginal Risk area across North Dakota into northern Minnesota where the front has shifted southward with influence from morning convection. Otherwise, the Slight Risk across the northern Plains into the upper Midwest remains on track. There continues to remain some uncertainty on what the corridor for greater wind risk will be this evening. Cloud cover remains across much of the Slight Risk area. It is mostly clear across southern South Dakota into Wyoming, where temperatures are warming. Thunderstorm activity has begun across the high terrain in Montana and Wyoming. See the previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 07/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025/ ...Northern Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley... Visible-satellite imagery late this morning shows extensive cloud debris and convective outflow from ongoing and early morning shower/thunderstorm activity. A composite outflow/front is draped from the ND/MN Red River Valley west-southwestward into northwest SD, with another frontal segment extending into northern WY. Weak to neutral height rises across the northern Plains this afternoon will likely not support a northward oscillation of the boundary into southwest ND. A belt of moderate to strong southwesterly 500-mb flow overhead the north-central Rockies and adjacent plains will be downstream of a larger-scale trough pivoting east across the northern Rockies through tonight. In agreement with earlier forecast thinking, it appears probable that diurnal storms will favor the general area of northern WY/southern MT. This region will generally be post-frontal, but steep mid-level lapse rates and a modestly moist low-level airmass should still aid in the development of at least weak instability. Strong deep-layer shear should support supercells initially, with associated threat for large to perhaps isolated very large hail. Some potential should exist for this convection to grow upscale this evening across parts of the Dakotas and pose a greater threat for severe/damaging winds overnight. But, uncertainty remains high regarding the placement of this possible cluster, and whether it will remain surface-based or elevated. Farther east into the upper MS Valley, it appears less likely that robust convection will develop before this evening due to the stabilizing influence of the ongoing morning activity. If thunderstorms can develop later, most short-term guidance continues to suggest that sufficient airmass recovery will occur to support severe convection with mainly a hail/wind threat. Some diurnal hail/wind threat may develop across IA in association with the lower MO Valley MCV. Uncertainty remains high regarding this scenario. ...Central High Plains... Scattered to numerous high-based thunderstorms should develop this afternoon along/near the surface lee trough extending southward across the central High Plains. While low/mid-level flow and deep-layer shear are all expected to remain weak today across this region due to closer proximity to the upper ridge, heating will contribute to the development of steep 0-3 km lapse rates. Severe gusts will be the primary hazard. ...Southeast... A weak cold front will shift southward today across parts of GA/SC. A rather moist low-level airmass will be in place ahead of the front, with daytime heating encouraging the development of moderate to locally strong instability through the afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms that develop along/ahead of the front, and along various sea breeze circulations, may be capable of producing occasional damaging winds, even though shear will remain weak. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible over parts of the northern Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley this afternoon into tonight. ...20z Update... Minor updates were made to the D1 Convective Outlook to reduce the Marginal Risk area across North Dakota into northern Minnesota where the front has shifted southward with influence from morning convection. Otherwise, the Slight Risk across the northern Plains into the upper Midwest remains on track. There continues to remain some uncertainty on what the corridor for greater wind risk will be this evening. Cloud cover remains across much of the Slight Risk area. It is mostly clear across southern South Dakota into Wyoming, where temperatures are warming. Thunderstorm activity has begun across the high terrain in Montana and Wyoming. See the previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 07/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025/ ...Northern Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley... Visible-satellite imagery late this morning shows extensive cloud debris and convective outflow from ongoing and early morning shower/thunderstorm activity. A composite outflow/front is draped from the ND/MN Red River Valley west-southwestward into northwest SD, with another frontal segment extending into northern WY. Weak to neutral height rises across the northern Plains this afternoon will likely not support a northward oscillation of the boundary into southwest ND. A belt of moderate to strong southwesterly 500-mb flow overhead the north-central Rockies and adjacent plains will be downstream of a larger-scale trough pivoting east across the northern Rockies through tonight. In agreement with earlier forecast thinking, it appears probable that diurnal storms will favor the general area of northern WY/southern MT. This region will generally be post-frontal, but steep mid-level lapse rates and a modestly moist low-level airmass should still aid in the development of at least weak instability. Strong deep-layer shear should support supercells initially, with associated threat for large to perhaps isolated very large hail. Some potential should exist for this convection to grow upscale this evening across parts of the Dakotas and pose a greater threat for severe/damaging winds overnight. But, uncertainty remains high regarding the placement of this possible cluster, and whether it will remain surface-based or elevated. Farther east into the upper MS Valley, it appears less likely that robust convection will develop before this evening due to the stabilizing influence of the ongoing morning activity. If thunderstorms can develop later, most short-term guidance continues to suggest that sufficient airmass recovery will occur to support severe convection with mainly a hail/wind threat. Some diurnal hail/wind threat may develop across IA in association with the lower MO Valley MCV. Uncertainty remains high regarding this scenario. ...Central High Plains... Scattered to numerous high-based thunderstorms should develop this afternoon along/near the surface lee trough extending southward across the central High Plains. While low/mid-level flow and deep-layer shear are all expected to remain weak today across this region due to closer proximity to the upper ridge, heating will contribute to the development of steep 0-3 km lapse rates. Severe gusts will be the primary hazard. ...Southeast... A weak cold front will shift southward today across parts of GA/SC. A rather moist low-level airmass will be in place ahead of the front, with daytime heating encouraging the development of moderate to locally strong instability through the afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms that develop along/ahead of the front, and along various sea breeze circulations, may be capable of producing occasional damaging winds, even though shear will remain weak. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible over parts of the northern Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley this afternoon into tonight. ...20z Update... Minor updates were made to the D1 Convective Outlook to reduce the Marginal Risk area across North Dakota into northern Minnesota where the front has shifted southward with influence from morning convection. Otherwise, the Slight Risk across the northern Plains into the upper Midwest remains on track. There continues to remain some uncertainty on what the corridor for greater wind risk will be this evening. Cloud cover remains across much of the Slight Risk area. It is mostly clear across southern South Dakota into Wyoming, where temperatures are warming. Thunderstorm activity has begun across the high terrain in Montana and Wyoming. See the previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 07/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025/ ...Northern Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley... Visible-satellite imagery late this morning shows extensive cloud debris and convective outflow from ongoing and early morning shower/thunderstorm activity. A composite outflow/front is draped from the ND/MN Red River Valley west-southwestward into northwest SD, with another frontal segment extending into northern WY. Weak to neutral height rises across the northern Plains this afternoon will likely not support a northward oscillation of the boundary into southwest ND. A belt of moderate to strong southwesterly 500-mb flow overhead the north-central Rockies and adjacent plains will be downstream of a larger-scale trough pivoting east across the northern Rockies through tonight. In agreement with earlier forecast thinking, it appears probable that diurnal storms will favor the general area of northern WY/southern MT. This region will generally be post-frontal, but steep mid-level lapse rates and a modestly moist low-level airmass should still aid in the development of at least weak instability. Strong deep-layer shear should support supercells initially, with associated threat for large to perhaps isolated very large hail. Some potential should exist for this convection to grow upscale this evening across parts of the Dakotas and pose a greater threat for severe/damaging winds overnight. But, uncertainty remains high regarding the placement of this possible cluster, and whether it will remain surface-based or elevated. Farther east into the upper MS Valley, it appears less likely that robust convection will develop before this evening due to the stabilizing influence of the ongoing morning activity. If thunderstorms can develop later, most short-term guidance continues to suggest that sufficient airmass recovery will occur to support severe convection with mainly a hail/wind threat. Some diurnal hail/wind threat may develop across IA in association with the lower MO Valley MCV. Uncertainty remains high regarding this scenario. ...Central High Plains... Scattered to numerous high-based thunderstorms should develop this afternoon along/near the surface lee trough extending southward across the central High Plains. While low/mid-level flow and deep-layer shear are all expected to remain weak today across this region due to closer proximity to the upper ridge, heating will contribute to the development of steep 0-3 km lapse rates. Severe gusts will be the primary hazard. ...Southeast... A weak cold front will shift southward today across parts of GA/SC. A rather moist low-level airmass will be in place ahead of the front, with daytime heating encouraging the development of moderate to locally strong instability through the afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms that develop along/ahead of the front, and along various sea breeze circulations, may be capable of producing occasional damaging winds, even though shear will remain weak. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible over parts of the northern Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley this afternoon into tonight. ...20z Update... Minor updates were made to the D1 Convective Outlook to reduce the Marginal Risk area across North Dakota into northern Minnesota where the front has shifted southward with influence from morning convection. Otherwise, the Slight Risk across the northern Plains into the upper Midwest remains on track. There continues to remain some uncertainty on what the corridor for greater wind risk will be this evening. Cloud cover remains across much of the Slight Risk area. It is mostly clear across southern South Dakota into Wyoming, where temperatures are warming. Thunderstorm activity has begun across the high terrain in Montana and Wyoming. See the previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 07/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025/ ...Northern Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley... Visible-satellite imagery late this morning shows extensive cloud debris and convective outflow from ongoing and early morning shower/thunderstorm activity. A composite outflow/front is draped from the ND/MN Red River Valley west-southwestward into northwest SD, with another frontal segment extending into northern WY. Weak to neutral height rises across the northern Plains this afternoon will likely not support a northward oscillation of the boundary into southwest ND. A belt of moderate to strong southwesterly 500-mb flow overhead the north-central Rockies and adjacent plains will be downstream of a larger-scale trough pivoting east across the northern Rockies through tonight. In agreement with earlier forecast thinking, it appears probable that diurnal storms will favor the general area of northern WY/southern MT. This region will generally be post-frontal, but steep mid-level lapse rates and a modestly moist low-level airmass should still aid in the development of at least weak instability. Strong deep-layer shear should support supercells initially, with associated threat for large to perhaps isolated very large hail. Some potential should exist for this convection to grow upscale this evening across parts of the Dakotas and pose a greater threat for severe/damaging winds overnight. But, uncertainty remains high regarding the placement of this possible cluster, and whether it will remain surface-based or elevated. Farther east into the upper MS Valley, it appears less likely that robust convection will develop before this evening due to the stabilizing influence of the ongoing morning activity. If thunderstorms can develop later, most short-term guidance continues to suggest that sufficient airmass recovery will occur to support severe convection with mainly a hail/wind threat. Some diurnal hail/wind threat may develop across IA in association with the lower MO Valley MCV. Uncertainty remains high regarding this scenario. ...Central High Plains... Scattered to numerous high-based thunderstorms should develop this afternoon along/near the surface lee trough extending southward across the central High Plains. While low/mid-level flow and deep-layer shear are all expected to remain weak today across this region due to closer proximity to the upper ridge, heating will contribute to the development of steep 0-3 km lapse rates. Severe gusts will be the primary hazard. ...Southeast... A weak cold front will shift southward today across parts of GA/SC. A rather moist low-level airmass will be in place ahead of the front, with daytime heating encouraging the development of moderate to locally strong instability through the afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms that develop along/ahead of the front, and along various sea breeze circulations, may be capable of producing occasional damaging winds, even though shear will remain weak. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible over parts of the northern Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley this afternoon into tonight. ...20z Update... Minor updates were made to the D1 Convective Outlook to reduce the Marginal Risk area across North Dakota into northern Minnesota where the front has shifted southward with influence from morning convection. Otherwise, the Slight Risk across the northern Plains into the upper Midwest remains on track. There continues to remain some uncertainty on what the corridor for greater wind risk will be this evening. Cloud cover remains across much of the Slight Risk area. It is mostly clear across southern South Dakota into Wyoming, where temperatures are warming. Thunderstorm activity has begun across the high terrain in Montana and Wyoming. See the previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 07/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025/ ...Northern Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley... Visible-satellite imagery late this morning shows extensive cloud debris and convective outflow from ongoing and early morning shower/thunderstorm activity. A composite outflow/front is draped from the ND/MN Red River Valley west-southwestward into northwest SD, with another frontal segment extending into northern WY. Weak to neutral height rises across the northern Plains this afternoon will likely not support a northward oscillation of the boundary into southwest ND. A belt of moderate to strong southwesterly 500-mb flow overhead the north-central Rockies and adjacent plains will be downstream of a larger-scale trough pivoting east across the northern Rockies through tonight. In agreement with earlier forecast thinking, it appears probable that diurnal storms will favor the general area of northern WY/southern MT. This region will generally be post-frontal, but steep mid-level lapse rates and a modestly moist low-level airmass should still aid in the development of at least weak instability. Strong deep-layer shear should support supercells initially, with associated threat for large to perhaps isolated very large hail. Some potential should exist for this convection to grow upscale this evening across parts of the Dakotas and pose a greater threat for severe/damaging winds overnight. But, uncertainty remains high regarding the placement of this possible cluster, and whether it will remain surface-based or elevated. Farther east into the upper MS Valley, it appears less likely that robust convection will develop before this evening due to the stabilizing influence of the ongoing morning activity. If thunderstorms can develop later, most short-term guidance continues to suggest that sufficient airmass recovery will occur to support severe convection with mainly a hail/wind threat. Some diurnal hail/wind threat may develop across IA in association with the lower MO Valley MCV. Uncertainty remains high regarding this scenario. ...Central High Plains... Scattered to numerous high-based thunderstorms should develop this afternoon along/near the surface lee trough extending southward across the central High Plains. While low/mid-level flow and deep-layer shear are all expected to remain weak today across this region due to closer proximity to the upper ridge, heating will contribute to the development of steep 0-3 km lapse rates. Severe gusts will be the primary hazard. ...Southeast... A weak cold front will shift southward today across parts of GA/SC. A rather moist low-level airmass will be in place ahead of the front, with daytime heating encouraging the development of moderate to locally strong instability through the afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms that develop along/ahead of the front, and along various sea breeze circulations, may be capable of producing occasional damaging winds, even though shear will remain weak. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible over parts of the northern Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley this afternoon into tonight. ...20z Update... Minor updates were made to the D1 Convective Outlook to reduce the Marginal Risk area across North Dakota into northern Minnesota where the front has shifted southward with influence from morning convection. Otherwise, the Slight Risk across the northern Plains into the upper Midwest remains on track. There continues to remain some uncertainty on what the corridor for greater wind risk will be this evening. Cloud cover remains across much of the Slight Risk area. It is mostly clear across southern South Dakota into Wyoming, where temperatures are warming. Thunderstorm activity has begun across the high terrain in Montana and Wyoming. See the previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 07/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025/ ...Northern Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley... Visible-satellite imagery late this morning shows extensive cloud debris and convective outflow from ongoing and early morning shower/thunderstorm activity. A composite outflow/front is draped from the ND/MN Red River Valley west-southwestward into northwest SD, with another frontal segment extending into northern WY. Weak to neutral height rises across the northern Plains this afternoon will likely not support a northward oscillation of the boundary into southwest ND. A belt of moderate to strong southwesterly 500-mb flow overhead the north-central Rockies and adjacent plains will be downstream of a larger-scale trough pivoting east across the northern Rockies through tonight. In agreement with earlier forecast thinking, it appears probable that diurnal storms will favor the general area of northern WY/southern MT. This region will generally be post-frontal, but steep mid-level lapse rates and a modestly moist low-level airmass should still aid in the development of at least weak instability. Strong deep-layer shear should support supercells initially, with associated threat for large to perhaps isolated very large hail. Some potential should exist for this convection to grow upscale this evening across parts of the Dakotas and pose a greater threat for severe/damaging winds overnight. But, uncertainty remains high regarding the placement of this possible cluster, and whether it will remain surface-based or elevated. Farther east into the upper MS Valley, it appears less likely that robust convection will develop before this evening due to the stabilizing influence of the ongoing morning activity. If thunderstorms can develop later, most short-term guidance continues to suggest that sufficient airmass recovery will occur to support severe convection with mainly a hail/wind threat. Some diurnal hail/wind threat may develop across IA in association with the lower MO Valley MCV. Uncertainty remains high regarding this scenario. ...Central High Plains... Scattered to numerous high-based thunderstorms should develop this afternoon along/near the surface lee trough extending southward across the central High Plains. While low/mid-level flow and deep-layer shear are all expected to remain weak today across this region due to closer proximity to the upper ridge, heating will contribute to the development of steep 0-3 km lapse rates. Severe gusts will be the primary hazard. ...Southeast... A weak cold front will shift southward today across parts of GA/SC. A rather moist low-level airmass will be in place ahead of the front, with daytime heating encouraging the development of moderate to locally strong instability through the afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms that develop along/ahead of the front, and along various sea breeze circulations, may be capable of producing occasional damaging winds, even though shear will remain weak. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible over parts of the northern Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley this afternoon into tonight. ...20z Update... Minor updates were made to the D1 Convective Outlook to reduce the Marginal Risk area across North Dakota into northern Minnesota where the front has shifted southward with influence from morning convection. Otherwise, the Slight Risk across the northern Plains into the upper Midwest remains on track. There continues to remain some uncertainty on what the corridor for greater wind risk will be this evening. Cloud cover remains across much of the Slight Risk area. It is mostly clear across southern South Dakota into Wyoming, where temperatures are warming. Thunderstorm activity has begun across the high terrain in Montana and Wyoming. See the previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 07/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025/ ...Northern Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley... Visible-satellite imagery late this morning shows extensive cloud debris and convective outflow from ongoing and early morning shower/thunderstorm activity. A composite outflow/front is draped from the ND/MN Red River Valley west-southwestward into northwest SD, with another frontal segment extending into northern WY. Weak to neutral height rises across the northern Plains this afternoon will likely not support a northward oscillation of the boundary into southwest ND. A belt of moderate to strong southwesterly 500-mb flow overhead the north-central Rockies and adjacent plains will be downstream of a larger-scale trough pivoting east across the northern Rockies through tonight. In agreement with earlier forecast thinking, it appears probable that diurnal storms will favor the general area of northern WY/southern MT. This region will generally be post-frontal, but steep mid-level lapse rates and a modestly moist low-level airmass should still aid in the development of at least weak instability. Strong deep-layer shear should support supercells initially, with associated threat for large to perhaps isolated very large hail. Some potential should exist for this convection to grow upscale this evening across parts of the Dakotas and pose a greater threat for severe/damaging winds overnight. But, uncertainty remains high regarding the placement of this possible cluster, and whether it will remain surface-based or elevated. Farther east into the upper MS Valley, it appears less likely that robust convection will develop before this evening due to the stabilizing influence of the ongoing morning activity. If thunderstorms can develop later, most short-term guidance continues to suggest that sufficient airmass recovery will occur to support severe convection with mainly a hail/wind threat. Some diurnal hail/wind threat may develop across IA in association with the lower MO Valley MCV. Uncertainty remains high regarding this scenario. ...Central High Plains... Scattered to numerous high-based thunderstorms should develop this afternoon along/near the surface lee trough extending southward across the central High Plains. While low/mid-level flow and deep-layer shear are all expected to remain weak today across this region due to closer proximity to the upper ridge, heating will contribute to the development of steep 0-3 km lapse rates. Severe gusts will be the primary hazard. ...Southeast... A weak cold front will shift southward today across parts of GA/SC. A rather moist low-level airmass will be in place ahead of the front, with daytime heating encouraging the development of moderate to locally strong instability through the afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms that develop along/ahead of the front, and along various sea breeze circulations, may be capable of producing occasional damaging winds, even though shear will remain weak. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible over parts of the northern Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley this afternoon into tonight. ...20z Update... Minor updates were made to the D1 Convective Outlook to reduce the Marginal Risk area across North Dakota into northern Minnesota where the front has shifted southward with influence from morning convection. Otherwise, the Slight Risk across the northern Plains into the upper Midwest remains on track. There continues to remain some uncertainty on what the corridor for greater wind risk will be this evening. Cloud cover remains across much of the Slight Risk area. It is mostly clear across southern South Dakota into Wyoming, where temperatures are warming. Thunderstorm activity has begun across the high terrain in Montana and Wyoming. See the previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 07/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025/ ...Northern Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley... Visible-satellite imagery late this morning shows extensive cloud debris and convective outflow from ongoing and early morning shower/thunderstorm activity. A composite outflow/front is draped from the ND/MN Red River Valley west-southwestward into northwest SD, with another frontal segment extending into northern WY. Weak to neutral height rises across the northern Plains this afternoon will likely not support a northward oscillation of the boundary into southwest ND. A belt of moderate to strong southwesterly 500-mb flow overhead the north-central Rockies and adjacent plains will be downstream of a larger-scale trough pivoting east across the northern Rockies through tonight. In agreement with earlier forecast thinking, it appears probable that diurnal storms will favor the general area of northern WY/southern MT. This region will generally be post-frontal, but steep mid-level lapse rates and a modestly moist low-level airmass should still aid in the development of at least weak instability. Strong deep-layer shear should support supercells initially, with associated threat for large to perhaps isolated very large hail. Some potential should exist for this convection to grow upscale this evening across parts of the Dakotas and pose a greater threat for severe/damaging winds overnight. But, uncertainty remains high regarding the placement of this possible cluster, and whether it will remain surface-based or elevated. Farther east into the upper MS Valley, it appears less likely that robust convection will develop before this evening due to the stabilizing influence of the ongoing morning activity. If thunderstorms can develop later, most short-term guidance continues to suggest that sufficient airmass recovery will occur to support severe convection with mainly a hail/wind threat. Some diurnal hail/wind threat may develop across IA in association with the lower MO Valley MCV. Uncertainty remains high regarding this scenario. ...Central High Plains... Scattered to numerous high-based thunderstorms should develop this afternoon along/near the surface lee trough extending southward across the central High Plains. While low/mid-level flow and deep-layer shear are all expected to remain weak today across this region due to closer proximity to the upper ridge, heating will contribute to the development of steep 0-3 km lapse rates. Severe gusts will be the primary hazard. ...Southeast... A weak cold front will shift southward today across parts of GA/SC. A rather moist low-level airmass will be in place ahead of the front, with daytime heating encouraging the development of moderate to locally strong instability through the afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms that develop along/ahead of the front, and along various sea breeze circulations, may be capable of producing occasional damaging winds, even though shear will remain weak. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES...AND CENTERED ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE.... ...SUMMARY... A few clusters of severe thunderstorms are possible from parts of the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes region Thursday, with damaging wind gust potential. Areas of strong to damaging gusts may also occur from southeast Wyoming across the Front Range and into northeast New Mexico. ...From IA/WI to Lower MI/Lower Great Lakes... A weak shortwave trough will move across the area, with midlevel winds to around 30 kt as far south as northern IL/IN. Moderate instability is forecast to develop ahead of a cold front, with storms developing from eastern IA into northern Lower MI between 18-21Z. Deep-layer means winds of 25-35 kt along with heating of the moist air mass should result in scattered strong to damaging gusts during the afternoon. A few strong storms could persist from the Mid MS Valley toward western PA overnight as westerly 850 mb winds persist within the deeper theta-e plume, though likely not severe. ...Eastern WY, CO, and northeast NM... Beneath weak westerlies aloft, low-level moisture will gradually spread westward across the High Plains as surface winds veer to east/southeast during the afternoon. Temperatures aloft will remain relatively cool, resulting in steep lapse rates overall. Models indicate rather significant overall storm coverage from afternoon through evening, developing over the high terrain and spreading into the Plains. Given MUCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg, strong gusts will be possible, in addition to marginal hail. ..Jewell.. 07/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES...AND CENTERED ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE.... ...SUMMARY... A few clusters of severe thunderstorms are possible from parts of the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes region Thursday, with damaging wind gust potential. Areas of strong to damaging gusts may also occur from southeast Wyoming across the Front Range and into northeast New Mexico. ...From IA/WI to Lower MI/Lower Great Lakes... A weak shortwave trough will move across the area, with midlevel winds to around 30 kt as far south as northern IL/IN. Moderate instability is forecast to develop ahead of a cold front, with storms developing from eastern IA into northern Lower MI between 18-21Z. Deep-layer means winds of 25-35 kt along with heating of the moist air mass should result in scattered strong to damaging gusts during the afternoon. A few strong storms could persist from the Mid MS Valley toward western PA overnight as westerly 850 mb winds persist within the deeper theta-e plume, though likely not severe. ...Eastern WY, CO, and northeast NM... Beneath weak westerlies aloft, low-level moisture will gradually spread westward across the High Plains as surface winds veer to east/southeast during the afternoon. Temperatures aloft will remain relatively cool, resulting in steep lapse rates overall. Models indicate rather significant overall storm coverage from afternoon through evening, developing over the high terrain and spreading into the Plains. Given MUCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg, strong gusts will be possible, in addition to marginal hail. ..Jewell.. 07/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES...AND CENTERED ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE.... ...SUMMARY... A few clusters of severe thunderstorms are possible from parts of the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes region Thursday, with damaging wind gust potential. Areas of strong to damaging gusts may also occur from southeast Wyoming across the Front Range and into northeast New Mexico. ...From IA/WI to Lower MI/Lower Great Lakes... A weak shortwave trough will move across the area, with midlevel winds to around 30 kt as far south as northern IL/IN. Moderate instability is forecast to develop ahead of a cold front, with storms developing from eastern IA into northern Lower MI between 18-21Z. Deep-layer means winds of 25-35 kt along with heating of the moist air mass should result in scattered strong to damaging gusts during the afternoon. A few strong storms could persist from the Mid MS Valley toward western PA overnight as westerly 850 mb winds persist within the deeper theta-e plume, though likely not severe. ...Eastern WY, CO, and northeast NM... Beneath weak westerlies aloft, low-level moisture will gradually spread westward across the High Plains as surface winds veer to east/southeast during the afternoon. Temperatures aloft will remain relatively cool, resulting in steep lapse rates overall. Models indicate rather significant overall storm coverage from afternoon through evening, developing over the high terrain and spreading into the Plains. Given MUCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg, strong gusts will be possible, in addition to marginal hail. ..Jewell.. 07/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES...AND CENTERED ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE.... ...SUMMARY... A few clusters of severe thunderstorms are possible from parts of the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes region Thursday, with damaging wind gust potential. Areas of strong to damaging gusts may also occur from southeast Wyoming across the Front Range and into northeast New Mexico. ...From IA/WI to Lower MI/Lower Great Lakes... A weak shortwave trough will move across the area, with midlevel winds to around 30 kt as far south as northern IL/IN. Moderate instability is forecast to develop ahead of a cold front, with storms developing from eastern IA into northern Lower MI between 18-21Z. Deep-layer means winds of 25-35 kt along with heating of the moist air mass should result in scattered strong to damaging gusts during the afternoon. A few strong storms could persist from the Mid MS Valley toward western PA overnight as westerly 850 mb winds persist within the deeper theta-e plume, though likely not severe. ...Eastern WY, CO, and northeast NM... Beneath weak westerlies aloft, low-level moisture will gradually spread westward across the High Plains as surface winds veer to east/southeast during the afternoon. Temperatures aloft will remain relatively cool, resulting in steep lapse rates overall. Models indicate rather significant overall storm coverage from afternoon through evening, developing over the high terrain and spreading into the Plains. Given MUCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg, strong gusts will be possible, in addition to marginal hail. ..Jewell.. 07/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES...AND CENTERED ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE.... ...SUMMARY... A few clusters of severe thunderstorms are possible from parts of the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes region Thursday, with damaging wind gust potential. Areas of strong to damaging gusts may also occur from southeast Wyoming across the Front Range and into northeast New Mexico. ...From IA/WI to Lower MI/Lower Great Lakes... A weak shortwave trough will move across the area, with midlevel winds to around 30 kt as far south as northern IL/IN. Moderate instability is forecast to develop ahead of a cold front, with storms developing from eastern IA into northern Lower MI between 18-21Z. Deep-layer means winds of 25-35 kt along with heating of the moist air mass should result in scattered strong to damaging gusts during the afternoon. A few strong storms could persist from the Mid MS Valley toward western PA overnight as westerly 850 mb winds persist within the deeper theta-e plume, though likely not severe. ...Eastern WY, CO, and northeast NM... Beneath weak westerlies aloft, low-level moisture will gradually spread westward across the High Plains as surface winds veer to east/southeast during the afternoon. Temperatures aloft will remain relatively cool, resulting in steep lapse rates overall. Models indicate rather significant overall storm coverage from afternoon through evening, developing over the high terrain and spreading into the Plains. Given MUCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg, strong gusts will be possible, in addition to marginal hail. ..Jewell.. 07/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES...AND CENTERED ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE.... ...SUMMARY... A few clusters of severe thunderstorms are possible from parts of the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes region Thursday, with damaging wind gust potential. Areas of strong to damaging gusts may also occur from southeast Wyoming across the Front Range and into northeast New Mexico. ...From IA/WI to Lower MI/Lower Great Lakes... A weak shortwave trough will move across the area, with midlevel winds to around 30 kt as far south as northern IL/IN. Moderate instability is forecast to develop ahead of a cold front, with storms developing from eastern IA into northern Lower MI between 18-21Z. Deep-layer means winds of 25-35 kt along with heating of the moist air mass should result in scattered strong to damaging gusts during the afternoon. A few strong storms could persist from the Mid MS Valley toward western PA overnight as westerly 850 mb winds persist within the deeper theta-e plume, though likely not severe. ...Eastern WY, CO, and northeast NM... Beneath weak westerlies aloft, low-level moisture will gradually spread westward across the High Plains as surface winds veer to east/southeast during the afternoon. Temperatures aloft will remain relatively cool, resulting in steep lapse rates overall. Models indicate rather significant overall storm coverage from afternoon through evening, developing over the high terrain and spreading into the Plains. Given MUCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg, strong gusts will be possible, in addition to marginal hail. ..Jewell.. 07/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES...AND CENTERED ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE.... ...SUMMARY... A few clusters of severe thunderstorms are possible from parts of the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes region Thursday, with damaging wind gust potential. Areas of strong to damaging gusts may also occur from southeast Wyoming across the Front Range and into northeast New Mexico. ...From IA/WI to Lower MI/Lower Great Lakes... A weak shortwave trough will move across the area, with midlevel winds to around 30 kt as far south as northern IL/IN. Moderate instability is forecast to develop ahead of a cold front, with storms developing from eastern IA into northern Lower MI between 18-21Z. Deep-layer means winds of 25-35 kt along with heating of the moist air mass should result in scattered strong to damaging gusts during the afternoon. A few strong storms could persist from the Mid MS Valley toward western PA overnight as westerly 850 mb winds persist within the deeper theta-e plume, though likely not severe. ...Eastern WY, CO, and northeast NM... Beneath weak westerlies aloft, low-level moisture will gradually spread westward across the High Plains as surface winds veer to east/southeast during the afternoon. Temperatures aloft will remain relatively cool, resulting in steep lapse rates overall. Models indicate rather significant overall storm coverage from afternoon through evening, developing over the high terrain and spreading into the Plains. Given MUCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg, strong gusts will be possible, in addition to marginal hail. ..Jewell.. 07/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES...AND CENTERED ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE.... ...SUMMARY... A few clusters of severe thunderstorms are possible from parts of the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes region Thursday, with damaging wind gust potential. Areas of strong to damaging gusts may also occur from southeast Wyoming across the Front Range and into northeast New Mexico. ...From IA/WI to Lower MI/Lower Great Lakes... A weak shortwave trough will move across the area, with midlevel winds to around 30 kt as far south as northern IL/IN. Moderate instability is forecast to develop ahead of a cold front, with storms developing from eastern IA into northern Lower MI between 18-21Z. Deep-layer means winds of 25-35 kt along with heating of the moist air mass should result in scattered strong to damaging gusts during the afternoon. A few strong storms could persist from the Mid MS Valley toward western PA overnight as westerly 850 mb winds persist within the deeper theta-e plume, though likely not severe. ...Eastern WY, CO, and northeast NM... Beneath weak westerlies aloft, low-level moisture will gradually spread westward across the High Plains as surface winds veer to east/southeast during the afternoon. Temperatures aloft will remain relatively cool, resulting in steep lapse rates overall. Models indicate rather significant overall storm coverage from afternoon through evening, developing over the high terrain and spreading into the Plains. Given MUCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg, strong gusts will be possible, in addition to marginal hail. ..Jewell.. 07/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES...AND CENTERED ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE.... ...SUMMARY... A few clusters of severe thunderstorms are possible from parts of the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes region Thursday, with damaging wind gust potential. Areas of strong to damaging gusts may also occur from southeast Wyoming across the Front Range and into northeast New Mexico. ...From IA/WI to Lower MI/Lower Great Lakes... A weak shortwave trough will move across the area, with midlevel winds to around 30 kt as far south as northern IL/IN. Moderate instability is forecast to develop ahead of a cold front, with storms developing from eastern IA into northern Lower MI between 18-21Z. Deep-layer means winds of 25-35 kt along with heating of the moist air mass should result in scattered strong to damaging gusts during the afternoon. A few strong storms could persist from the Mid MS Valley toward western PA overnight as westerly 850 mb winds persist within the deeper theta-e plume, though likely not severe. ...Eastern WY, CO, and northeast NM... Beneath weak westerlies aloft, low-level moisture will gradually spread westward across the High Plains as surface winds veer to east/southeast during the afternoon. Temperatures aloft will remain relatively cool, resulting in steep lapse rates overall. Models indicate rather significant overall storm coverage from afternoon through evening, developing over the high terrain and spreading into the Plains. Given MUCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg, strong gusts will be possible, in addition to marginal hail. ..Jewell.. 07/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES...AND CENTERED ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE.... ...SUMMARY... A few clusters of severe thunderstorms are possible from parts of the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes region Thursday, with damaging wind gust potential. Areas of strong to damaging gusts may also occur from southeast Wyoming across the Front Range and into northeast New Mexico. ...From IA/WI to Lower MI/Lower Great Lakes... A weak shortwave trough will move across the area, with midlevel winds to around 30 kt as far south as northern IL/IN. Moderate instability is forecast to develop ahead of a cold front, with storms developing from eastern IA into northern Lower MI between 18-21Z. Deep-layer means winds of 25-35 kt along with heating of the moist air mass should result in scattered strong to damaging gusts during the afternoon. A few strong storms could persist from the Mid MS Valley toward western PA overnight as westerly 850 mb winds persist within the deeper theta-e plume, though likely not severe. ...Eastern WY, CO, and northeast NM... Beneath weak westerlies aloft, low-level moisture will gradually spread westward across the High Plains as surface winds veer to east/southeast during the afternoon. Temperatures aloft will remain relatively cool, resulting in steep lapse rates overall. Models indicate rather significant overall storm coverage from afternoon through evening, developing over the high terrain and spreading into the Plains. Given MUCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg, strong gusts will be possible, in addition to marginal hail. ..Jewell.. 07/22/2025 Read more