Aggregator

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 311200Z ...Synopsis... A compact, mid to upper-level closed low will traverse central CA D3/Friday. This feature will open/phase with a Pacific trough D4/Saturday and then lift northeastward over the Great Basin and central Rockies. Through this weekend, a subtropical ridge will begin to dominate the central and southern CONUS. Thereafter, deeper southerly flow aloft is anticipated to develop on its western fringe from southern CA through the Pacific Northwest. ...D3/Friday... Mid-level ascent and moisture accompanying the upper low will lead to the development of showers and thunderstorms along a residual boundary from northern CA, eastward into WY. Inverted "V" forecast soundings, low QPF, and PWATs less than 0.75" over mostly receptive fuels suggest the potential for isolated dry thunderstorms. Farther north localized breezy westerly winds are expected in the gaps of the Cascades of WA and OR near the border, although only a brief drop to near critical RH precludes the need for low probabilities. ...D4/Saturday... An increase in south-southwesterly mid-level flow is expected over the Southwest and central Rockies as the shortwave trough progresses eastward. A well mixed boundary layer from northwest AZ to far western CO should allow for some of this modest flow to translate to the surface, aiding in localized breezy conditions there. A couple of small low probability areas were considered for these areas where fuels are receptive and low RH is anticipated. However, given the isolated nature of critical conditions and lower confidence in occurrence they were not included in the forecast at this time. ..Barnes.. 07/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

The Jackson Town Council unanimously passed an emergency ordinance requiring all properties connected to the Town’s public water supply to limit irrigation use starting July 21. The ordinance, which is scheduled to end on October 31, was put into place to prioritize water availability for domestic and household use and fire suppression. The water shortage has become an emergency issue, affecting the health, safety and welfare of the community. The aim was to reduce irrigation through the summer and lower water use on the system overall by 30% to 40%. Buckrail (Jackson, Wyo.), July 22, 2025

Converse County commissioners enacted a partial open fire ban due to drought. Stage 1 fire closures and regulations restrict open flames, including open pit fires at campgrounds. The Douglas Budget (Wyo.), July 23, 2025

The City of Douglas issued mandatory water conservation measures on Friday, July 18 because demand exceeded supply. Since then, water usage has dropped below what the city’s three water sources can produce. The restrictions may be lifted sometime in the next week if turbidity levels in the North Platte lessen and the treatment plant can be used. The Douglas Budget (Wyo.), July 23, 2025

Water conservation was encouraged as Utah’s reservoirs were 75% full, which was slightly above the median for this time of year. Gov. Cox noted that yellow lawns were acceptable this summer. KSL.com (Salt Lake City, Utah), July 17, 2025

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Jul 23 02:01:02 UTC 2025.

No watches are valid as of Wed Jul 23 02:01:02 UTC 2025.

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0758 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025 Valid 230100Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to widely scattered potentially severe thunderstorms may occur tonight across the northern Plains to Upper Midwest. ...Northern Plains/Upper Midwest... Severe storms have remained relatively isolated/limited through late afternoon and early evening, likely attributable to factors such as a persistence of semi-cool surface temperatures and stratus across southeast Montana and the western Dakotas, as well as modest overall forcing and residual mid-level capping regionally. Aided by the approach of an upstream mid-level trough, some strong to severe storms may still emerge across southeast Montana and the Big Horns vicinity of northeast Wyoming. A strengthening south-southwesterly low-level jet across the central Plains toward the Upper Midwest may also influence an uptick in storm coverage/intensity tonight across South Dakota into southern/eastern North Dakota and Minnesota. Bouts of damaging winds and hail are expected to be the primary hazards regionally. Regarding short-term severe potential across Iowa, see Mesoscale Discussion 1757. ..Guyer.. 07/23/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0758 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025 Valid 230100Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to widely scattered potentially severe thunderstorms may occur tonight across the northern Plains to Upper Midwest. ...Northern Plains/Upper Midwest... Severe storms have remained relatively isolated/limited through late afternoon and early evening, likely attributable to factors such as a persistence of semi-cool surface temperatures and stratus across southeast Montana and the western Dakotas, as well as modest overall forcing and residual mid-level capping regionally. Aided by the approach of an upstream mid-level trough, some strong to severe storms may still emerge across southeast Montana and the Big Horns vicinity of northeast Wyoming. A strengthening south-southwesterly low-level jet across the central Plains toward the Upper Midwest may also influence an uptick in storm coverage/intensity tonight across South Dakota into southern/eastern North Dakota and Minnesota. Bouts of damaging winds and hail are expected to be the primary hazards regionally. Regarding short-term severe potential across Iowa, see Mesoscale Discussion 1757. ..Guyer.. 07/23/2025 Read more

MD 1757 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN IOWA
Mesoscale Discussion 1757 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0727 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025 Areas affected...Portions of central/eastern Iowa Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 230027Z - 230200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Isolated strong winds may accompany storms. The strongest storms could show weak low-level rotation. DISCUSSION...An MCV in the mid-Missouri Valley has promoted widely scattered storms in parts of southern Iowa. These storms may persist into mid-evening. A very moist airmass at the surface is supporting 2500-4000 J/kg MLCAPE. Shear remains quite modest under the upper-level ridge, though the MCV has contributed to local value of 20-30 kts. The main hazard with these storms will be locally damaging winds as storms develop and collapse. KDMX velocity data has indicated weak low-level rotation with a couple of the stronger storms. Area VAD data shows very weak low-level SRH even with the MCV influence. With the 850 mb jet expected to increase farther west, this SRH is not expected to improve this evening. At most, a brief tornado could occur, though this threat is conditional. ..Wendt/Hart.. 07/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX... LAT...LON 41209433 41429432 41829418 42079348 41819187 41349146 40829167 40659204 40609231 40949283 41079390 41209433 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 222325
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Tue Jul 22 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Well Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands:
An area of low pressure is expected to form well southeast of the
Hawaiian Islands this weekend. Thereafter, some gradual development
is possible as the system moves generally westward at 10 to 15 mph.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin/Gibbs

The City of Siletz declared emergency water restrictions Friday, July 18, due to ongoing drought conditions and record low levels in the Siletz River from which the municipality draws its water. Under the emergency water curtailment notice, households were limited to 10,000 gallons of water per month. The Siletz River was at a 130-year low. Residents of Toledo, a community that also pulls water from the Siletz River and Mill Creek, were urged to conserve water. The Seal Rock Water District, which draws water from Beaver Creek and is the largest water district in the county with 5,500 customers, has also sent notices to its customers requesting that they conserve water. Lincoln Chronicle (Yachats, Ore.), July 21, 2025

The Georgia Pacific mill in Toledo stopped pumping water from the Siletz River the weekend of July 12 as the Siletz River was extremely low. Lincoln Chronicle (Yachats, Ore.), July 21, 2025

No watches are valid as of Tue Jul 22 22:34:02 UTC 2025.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Jul 22 22:34:02 UTC 2025.

A countywide burn ban took effect in Teton County and will remain in effect through September 30. Recreational fires and outdoor cooking were allowed in designated fire rings or UL approved cooking appliances. Given the drought conditions, the public was asked to be especially careful with fires outdoors. Teton Valley News (Driggs, Idaho), July 22, 2025

MD 1756 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1756 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0319 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025 Areas affected...portions of southeast North Dakota and northeast South Dakota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 222019Z - 222215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible into early evening. Hail and strong gusts may occur with stronger storms. DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms have developed this afternoon within the post-outflow airmass. While early day convection and cloud cover have impacted the airmass to some degree, some recovery is apparent as temperatures have warmed into the upper 70s to low 80s and dewpoints have been maintained in the upper 60s to low 70s. As a result, capping is eroding, and MLCAPE has increased to 1000-2000 J/kg. Ongoing storms may be somewhat elevated initially, but could become surface-based with time. Effective shear magnitudes greater than 40 kt and steep midlevel lapse rates suggests robust updrafts supporting isolated large hail and strong/severe gusts will be possible. Given the influence of outflow and modification of the airmass from morning convection, convective evolution remains somewhat uncertain. Portions of the area may eventually need a severe thunderstorm watch, but timing and location is uncertain. ..Leitman/Smith.. 07/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS... LAT...LON 45470046 46749959 47279828 46969709 46309676 45059717 44629788 44339914 44260010 44470063 44770080 45470046 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0448 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 301200Z ...Synopsis... A cutoff low is expected to be located just off the central CA coast by D3/Thursday. This low should meander northward through the weekend into northern CA as it opens. Farther east and north, quasi-zonal flow will persist over the northern CONUS while a subtropical ridge begins to dominate the central and southern CONUS into next week. ...D3/Thursday-D4/Friday... Subtle mid-level ascent and moisture accompanying the CA low will aid in a mix of wet and isolated dry thunderstorm chances from northern CA into far southern OR, southern ID, and far western/northern NV D3/Thursday. Fuels across these regions remain fairly receptive to fire starts. In addition to the threat of lighting starts, localized breezy southwesterly winds are expected to develop during the afternoon near the OR/WA border. A small area of low critical probabilities has been introduced here. By D4/Friday isolated dry lightning strikes will remain possible over the Sierra Crest and portions of southern OR and northwestern NV. Warm and breezy conditions will begin to return to the Southwest, central Rockies, and Great Basin. The latter conditions will persist through this weekend, though confidence in any one area reaching critical thresholds is not high enough to warrant additional low probability areas at this time. ..Barnes.. 07/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0448 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 301200Z ...Synopsis... A cutoff low is expected to be located just off the central CA coast by D3/Thursday. This low should meander northward through the weekend into northern CA as it opens. Farther east and north, quasi-zonal flow will persist over the northern CONUS while a subtropical ridge begins to dominate the central and southern CONUS into next week. ...D3/Thursday-D4/Friday... Subtle mid-level ascent and moisture accompanying the CA low will aid in a mix of wet and isolated dry thunderstorm chances from northern CA into far southern OR, southern ID, and far western/northern NV D3/Thursday. Fuels across these regions remain fairly receptive to fire starts. In addition to the threat of lighting starts, localized breezy southwesterly winds are expected to develop during the afternoon near the OR/WA border. A small area of low critical probabilities has been introduced here. By D4/Friday isolated dry lightning strikes will remain possible over the Sierra Crest and portions of southern OR and northwestern NV. Warm and breezy conditions will begin to return to the Southwest, central Rockies, and Great Basin. The latter conditions will persist through this weekend, though confidence in any one area reaching critical thresholds is not high enough to warrant additional low probability areas at this time. ..Barnes.. 07/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0448 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 301200Z ...Synopsis... A cutoff low is expected to be located just off the central CA coast by D3/Thursday. This low should meander northward through the weekend into northern CA as it opens. Farther east and north, quasi-zonal flow will persist over the northern CONUS while a subtropical ridge begins to dominate the central and southern CONUS into next week. ...D3/Thursday-D4/Friday... Subtle mid-level ascent and moisture accompanying the CA low will aid in a mix of wet and isolated dry thunderstorm chances from northern CA into far southern OR, southern ID, and far western/northern NV D3/Thursday. Fuels across these regions remain fairly receptive to fire starts. In addition to the threat of lighting starts, localized breezy southwesterly winds are expected to develop during the afternoon near the OR/WA border. A small area of low critical probabilities has been introduced here. By D4/Friday isolated dry lightning strikes will remain possible over the Sierra Crest and portions of southern OR and northwestern NV. Warm and breezy conditions will begin to return to the Southwest, central Rockies, and Great Basin. The latter conditions will persist through this weekend, though confidence in any one area reaching critical thresholds is not high enough to warrant additional low probability areas at this time. ..Barnes.. 07/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more